Climate Relationships Research Articles

Lack of evidence for alternative stable states in Northern Hemisphere forests during the past 8 ka

Abstract With increased pressure from anthropogenic climate change, boreal forests are suspected to be approaching tipping points which could cause large-scale changes in tree cover and affect global climatic feedback. However, evidence for this proposed tipping is sparse and relies heavily on observations on short time scales from remote sensing data and space-for-time substitutions. Here we make use of an extensive pollen data set including 239 records of large lakes to investigate the existence of alternative stable forest cover states in the boreal forest and its adjacent biomes during the last 8000 years. By using a multimodality measure on time series of reconstructed tree cover we find very little multimodality in pollen data. To test whether this lack of multimodality is caused by limitations in the paleo data set we perform surrogate experiments. Surrogate data with alternative stable states based on the paleo vegetation–climate relationship were generated and significant multimodality was found more often than for the pollen-based tree cover (24.7% and 5.3% respectively). The response of tree cover to climate may, therefore, be more gradual and not as abrupt as would be expected from remote sensing analyses on stability. The apparent alternative stability hypothesized in the analyses of climate–vegetation relationships could be due to the strong spatial heterogeneity of environmental factors and vegetation responses as an artifact of space-for-time substitutions. Even though current and upcoming shifts in the boreal forest are indisputable and a reason for strong concern, these changes could happen gradually without going through large-scale tipping between alternative stable states. To aid adaptation and conservation measures, more knowledge is needed about boreal forest drivers and their spatial heterogeneity.

Effects of climate variability on secondary xylem formation and anatomy in fagus sylvatica trees grown in Denmark

ABSTRACT Tree-ring width chronologies of Fagus sylvatica L. have been studied to understand the growth–climate relationship in Denmark, but there is little evidence of a clear climate signal in such tree-ring width data. In this study, tree-ring width chronologies of F. sylvatica trees growing in an even-aged stand in Denmark over the period 1972–2012 were supplemented with wood density and quantitative wood anatomy variables using the SilviScan-3 combined set-up. The effects of moisture availability and temperature variations on xylem features were investigated. Some xylem features showed stronger associations with drought index (DI) and temperature than ring width. Specifically, the September drought was associated with an increased mean area of the individual fibers in the ring formed the following year. Drought in October resulted in a higher density the following year, probably via increased fiber wall thickness and decreased areas of individual vessels. Further, late summer and early autumn warming increased the vessel density in the following year, but drought reduced their cross-sectional area. By dividing tree rings into ten segments, relationships between wood density and DI could be evaluated at the intra-annual level. In the third segment, wood density decreased with previous year December drought, while the April drought increased the wood density of this segment. Together, the results indicated that xylem formation and anatomy in F. sylvatica seem to be linked to moisture availability and temperature, and that dry and warm conditions affect xylem features differently depending on when they occur relative to wood formation.

Climate-based modelling and forecasting of dengue in three endemic departments of Peru.

Amid profound climate change, incidence of dengue continues to rise and expand in distribution across the world. Here, we analysed dengue in three coastal departments of Peru which have recently experienced public health emergencies during the worst dengue crises in Latin American history. We developed a climate-based spatiotemporal modelling framework to model monthly incidence of new dengue cases in Piura, Tumbes, and Lambayeque over 140 months from 2010 to 2021. The framework enabled accurate description of in-sample and out-of-sample dengue incidence trends across the departments, as well as the characterisation of the timing, structure, and intensity of climatic relationships with human dengue incidence. In terms of dengue incidence rate (DIR) risk factors, we inferred non-linear and delayed effects of greater monthly mean maximum temperatures, extreme precipitation, sustained drought conditions, and extremes of a Peruvian-specific indicator of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Building on our model-based understanding of climatic influences, we performed climate-model-based forecasting of dengue incidence across 2018 to 2021 with a forecast horizon of one month. Our framework enabled representative, reliable forecasts of future dengue outbreaks, including correct classification of 100% of all future outbreaks with DIR ≥ 50 (or 150) per 100,000, whilst retaining relatively low probability of 0.12 (0.05) for false alarms. Therefore, our model framework and analysis may be used by public health authorities to i) understand climatic drivers of dengue incidence, and ii) alongside our forecasts, to mitigate impacts of dengue outbreaks and potential public health emergencies by informing early warning systems and deployment of vector control resources.

Climate Change Conversations Amongst Young Adults: On Conversational Safety and the Search for Consensus in Polarizing Interactions

ABSTRACT While much research has focused on the effectiveness of various climate change frames (i.e. cognitive), much less is known about how people co-construct the meaning of climate change in conversations (i.e. interactive). We conducted an interactional framing analysis on focus-group discussions about climate measures to examine how young adults interactively construct the meaning of climate issues, identities and relationships, and the conversational process. Our findings suggest that challenging discussions oftentimes lead to polarizing interactions, yet they also result in attempts to build conversational safety and consensus. These dynamics are defined by (a) the construction of shared truths and experiences; (b) joint fact-finding through constructive contestation; and (c) harmonizing through the active display of positive intent. We conclude that the interplay in the conversations impacts how young adults think about climate change, which provides fertile ground for future research.

Forward modelling of white spruce radial growth at trailing edge demonstrates high plasticity

Climate conditions throughout the 21st century across much of western Canada's boreal forest have been drier than normal leading to significant impacts on forest productivity and tree growth. Determining the limiting factors of radial growth in common boreal tree species under current and future conditions is crucial to reconcile how they will continue to respond to climate change. In this study, we used a network of 26 white spruce tree-ring chronologies south of its natural range as an artificially constructed trailing edge to assess climate-growth relationships and limiting factors by identifying seasonal climate relationships and using the Vaganov-Shashkin Lite (VS-Lite) model, respectively. Analysis revealed that white spruce in the study region is positively correlated to precipitation and negatively associated with temperature from the current and previous growing seasons. VS-Lite showed that moisture was the primary limiting factor in growth across the entire study area. The modelled radial growth from the VS-Lite model showed moderate success (14 of 26 site models were significant) and was more variable than measured tree-ring index values. The model systematically overestimated drought-related impacts on radial growth, especially during the middle portion of the growth season (June–August) indicating white spruce likely employs a conservative approach to carbohydrate storage as the region is much more susceptible to moisture deficits. The outcome of our research illustrates that white spruce may be resilient to hotter, drier conditions through environmental plasticity in the Boreal Plains.

Situational and Dispositional Achievement Goals and Measures of Sport Performance: A Systematic Review with a Meta-Analysis.

The purposes of this systematic review (PROSPERO ID: CRD42024510614, no funding source) were to quantify relationships between situational and dispositional dichotomous achievement goals and sport performance and explore potential relationship moderators. Published studies that reported at least one situational or dispositional achievement goal and a performance score were included. Studies without performance scores or based in a non-sport context were excluded. Information sources consisted of studies found in relevant published meta-analyses and EBSCOhost databases (finalized September 2024). The following statistics were conducted to assess the risk of bias: class-fail-safe n, Orwin's fail-safe n, and funnel plots with trim and fill estimates. The summary statistics were r and d. Thirty studies from 1994 to 2024 met all inclusion criteria with 8708 participants from Europe, Asia, North America, and Oceania. The majority of samples were non-elite male youths and adolescents. The random-effects relationships (r) between task climate, 0.20 [0.14, 0.25], task orientation, 0.17 [0.12, 0.23], ego orientation, 0.09 [0.03, 0.16], and sport performance were small and significantly different (p < 0.05) from zero, while the ego motivational climate relationship was not, -0.00 [-0.48, 0.05]. The random-effects standard differences in means (d) for both the task orientation, 0.08 [0.02, 0.14], and ego orientation, 0.11 [-0.05, 0.26] were minimal in meaningfulness. Mixed-effects moderator analyses resulted in the following significant (p < 0.05) sub-group differences: subjective compared to objective performance measures (task orientation), elite compared to non-elite samples (task climate), and athlete-completed compared to coach-completed performance measures and performance records (task orientation). Finding only 30 studies meeting the inclusion criteria, which limited sub-group samples for moderation analyses, was the main limitation. Despite this limitation, AGT provides athletes and practitioners performance enhancement strategies. However, caution is warranted regarding relationship expectations given the small mean effect size values and the true prediction interval ranging from negative to positive, perhaps as a result of the heterogeneous samples and performance measures. A clear line of future research, considering the reviewed studies, with elite athletes is needed to verify the performance benefits of the task climate and ego orientation as well as the use of the ego goal orientation in selection decisions.

Spruce up your climate analysis: Dendroclimatology of Picea engelmannii and Picea pungens

AbstractWarming and more variable climates threaten to upend historical tree ranges, climatic sensitivity, and vigor. In western North America, the species Picea engelmannii var. engelmannii Parry ex Engelmann (Engelmann spruce) and Picea pungens Engelmann (Colorado blue spruce) are widespread spruce that act as foundational species in their montane to subalpine habitats. However, there is currently a lack of knowledge on P. pungens climatic responses, and how it differs from P. engelmannii. To address this gap, we assessed the climatic sensitivity and correlates of tree growth in a co‐occurring old‐growth stand of P. engelmannii and P. pungens, at high elevation in southern Utah, USA. We report the putative oldest cross‐dated P. pungens, with 457 rings, and sampled multiple P. pungens &gt;400 years old. Both Picea populations had strongly positive growth responses to May–July precipitation and negative responses to maximum May–July temperature. Notably, October in the previous year had the strongest correlation with growth for both Picea species. Neither population exhibited signs of directional changes in climate–growth responses. Spectral analysis identified peaks associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation at 3–4 years and quasi‐decadal oscillations (18–20 years) in both species. Cumulatively, our results highlight the growth–climate relationships of two frequently understudied subalpine tree species. In particular, P. pungens may warrant further study across its range and identification of other ancient populations.

Examining the role of classroom climate and teacher-student relationships in EFL students’ perceived learning outcomes: A self-determination theory perspective

Research corroborates that classroom atmosphere and the quality of relationships between teachers and learners play a major role in second/foreign language (L2) learning. However, their contribution to learning outcomes has been overlooked. To fill this gap, the present study drew on attachment theory (AT) and self-determination theory (SDT) to assess the interplay between classroom climate, teacher-student relationships, and learning outcomes from the perspective of Chinese EFL students. Moreover, it explored the predictive role of classroom climate and teacher-student relationship in Chinese EFL students’ perceived learning outcomes. To do so, three questionnaires were distributed among a large sample of EFL students (N = 413) in China. Afterward, AMOS software, structural equation modeling (SEM), and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) were performed to analyze the data. The results showed a strong and significant correlation among perceived learning outcomes, teacher-student relationship, and classroom climate. Regression analysis also revealed that both teacher-student relationship (β =.211, p =.000) and classroom climate (β =.434, p =.000) were significant predictors of EFL learners’ perceived learning outcomes. They could jointly predict 39.8 % of the variance in perceived learning outcomes. The results provide a new understanding of the contributions of learning environment and classroom interactions to students’ learning.

The Link between Workplace Safety Climate and Job Performance among Nursing Staff: A Correlational Study

Background: Workplace safety climate and job performance are closely related. A positive safety climate is associated with better job performance, particularly in health care settings. Objectives: The study aims to investigate the relationship of workplace safety climate and job performance among nursing staff. Methodology: Correlation study design research used in the present study among 250 nurses choosing from Imam Hussein Hospital in Karbala Governorate which is located south of Iraq, about 105 km2 away from the capital, Baghdad. The study has been carried out during the period 17th September 2023 to 16th January 2024. Using questionnaire prepared and modified by the researcher. Results: The majority of nursing staff are females between the ages of 20 and 29, married, with diploma qualification and their monthly income is barely enough to cover their expenses. They reside in urban areas. Professionally, the majority of them had experience ranging from 1 to 5 years, and most of them work in surgical departments for 6-8 hours a day and do not work overtime. Health-wise, most of nurse’s sleep for 5-7 hours daily and do not suffer from any chronic diseases. There is significant relationship between workplace safety climate and job performance among nursing staff. Conclusion: The significant relationship between the two factors and emphasizing the importance of improving safety climates for enhanced job performance and better health outcomes in healthcare settings

Climatic Oscillations and Dynastic Trends: A Multiproxy analysis of the past two millennia in the Indian Subcontinent

The study examines centennial-scale climatic oscillations over the past two millennia in the monsoon-dominated Indian subcontinent by multiproxy analysis of pollen along with stable carbon isotope, total organic carbon, magnetic susceptibility, and grain size from a 274 cm deep sediment profile in Sarsapukhra Lake, Varanasi, in the Central Ganga Plain (CGP) to portray vegetation changes and their impact on rise and fall of dominant dynasties. Between ∼1800 to 1600 cal yr BP, the coarser silty sand with few Poaceae and Asteraceae pollen with other proxy data, indicate that the region experienced a strong Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). Subsequently, from ∼1600 to 1350 cal yr BP, presence of mixed moist deciduous taxa such as Shorea robusta, Madhuca indica, Rubiaceae, Morus alba, Syzygium, and Moraceae indicate a moderate ISM while between 1350 to 1200 cal yr BP, the dominance of dry deciduous taxa viz. Acacia sp., Bombax ceiba, Holoptelea, Rutaceae, Madhuca indica, Mangifera indica etc. suggested weak ISM conditions. A pulsative ameliorating trend from ∼1200 to 1030 cal yr BP showed the dominance of deciduous taxa such as Holoptelea, Rutaceae, Ziziphus, Rubiaceae, Maytenus and Acanthaceae etc. indicating warm and moist climatic conditions, followed by a weak ISM until ∼900 cal yr BP and improved ISM until 620 cal yr BP. Subsequently, an improving trend in the ISM from ∼620 to 450 cal yr BP was observed, with increased dominance of wetland taxa, followed by acute dry climate beyond ∼450 cal yr BP indicating poor ISM conditions.Additionally, the alternating warm and cold episodes had a direct impact on vegetation, forcing human civilizations to migrate from their original locations and contributing to the downfall of prominent dynasties. Furthermore, this study lays the foundation for future research into issues related to vegetation change, the amount of ISM shift, and human culture−climate relationship.

Making sense of big questions that require multiple subjects: preliminary theorisation of an integrative philosophy of knowledge and empirical indications of a lack of subject connection within school curricula

AbstractThis paper provides theorisation about a novel concept for education: an integrative philosophy of knowledge (IPK). This is proposed for school curricula to relate multiple subjects to big questions of personal and existential importance. Critical contemporary issues such as climate change education require multiple subject contributions but there is little clarity in the English education guidance on this drawing together, beyond the encouragement to do so in priority areas. Leading British thinkers have engaged the idea of the unity of knowledge, not without difficulty and criticism. The paper identifies reasons for a practical approach to consilience in school curricula. In addition to preliminary theorisation, in methodological ‘harmony’, this paper adds tentative empirical findings from a related research project that provides quantitative indications that such multi-subject connection is likely not happening. The findings are not definitive, but the perceptions of three groups of beginning and experienced teachers (secondary Religious Education (RE), secondary science and primary teachers) indicate that school curricula do not reflect an integrative approach to climate change education, and sex and relationships education, despite policy priority. A significant national survey could not detect many signs of connection. The paper speculates that RE could have a key epistemic role for the curriculum as a whole in this regard.

Climate race or collaboration? Effects of strategy framing on trust in government, nationalist sentiments, and climate action intention in international politics

Climate change is often used as a bargaining chip for global powers to achieve political goals. Strategy framing, particularly within international political contexts, can serve as a lens to unpack the relationship between countries’ substantial climate policy and underlying political appeals in news coverage. A survey experiment ( n = 331) was conducted to investigate the effects of strategy framing in international politics on trust in government, nationalist sentiments, and climate action intentions against the backdrop of China-U.S. climate relationship. Results showed that perceived strategy framing had a direct, positive association and an indirect, negative association with trust in government through anxiety. Additionally, in comparison to issue framing, exposure to strategy framing incited heightened nationalist sentiments, which in turn promoted public engagement in climate-related activities. Moreover, internal and international political efficacy moderated the effects of strategy framing perceptions on outcomes. Findings offer insights for possible cognitive, emotional, and ideological mechanisms of strategy framing’s effects in international politics.

Exacerbated Tree Growth Decline of an Old Platycladus orientalis Forest after Rapid Warming at the Northern Edge of the Taihang Mountain of China

Old trees are irreplaceable conservation resources with numerous ecological and socio-cultural values. While many forests have experienced significant declines under recent climate warming, the risk of growth declines in old trees remains unknown. Here, we tackle this problem by dendrochronological studies of 30 old trees in a Platycladus orientalis forest at the northern boundary of the Taihang Mountain of China. We examined annual growth trajectories of trees at individual level and discovered four severe growth decline events over the last 150 years, including the periods of 1894–1899, 1913–1919, 1964–1967 and 2004–2018. The most recent growth decline event lasted for 15-year and involced 50% to 75% of the old trees. This decline was unprecedented in both its extent and duration. Furthermore, the growth–climate relationship of these old trees has changed since 1990. Before 1990, tree growth was significantly correlated with minimum winter; after 1990, tree growth became significantly correlated with the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Index. These results suggest that warming-induced droughts after 1990 could be the primary driver of the recent growth decline. If climate warming continues and drought stresses intensify, the old trees may face an increased risk of growth decline and even mortality.

Recycling the rain: Exploring forest management practices in a western Mediterranean watershed to recouple the atmospheric and terrestrial water cycle

Current knowledge of the role that forests play in recycling rainwater has led to the proposal of forest management practices to mitigate desertification in the western Mediterranean basin. Building upon this hypothesis, we present the Mijares watershed in eastern Spain as a detailed case study. We then perform a scientific literature review in the context of the western Mediterranean basin to identify the physical and biophysical uncertainties associated with forest management practices that aim to strengthen the atmospheric and terrestrial components of the water cycle. The review identified eleven interconnected uncertainties that result from complex vegetation, climate, soil, and water relationships. We discuss the need to deepen our understanding of the atmospheric dynamics of the Mijares by accounting for the role of forests in recycling rainfall and by adopting an adaptive management approach to apply the lessons learned in the territory. Based on these considerations, we propose forest management practices to reinforce the water cycle of the watershed. Our work contributes to understanding the uncertainties arising from forest management practices aimed at mitigating desertification, thereby supporting decision-making. These insights apply to other western Mediterranean coastal watersheds.

‘Fostering resilience: the impact of supportive organizational culture on mitigating burnout in early childhood educators’

ABSTRACT Caring for toddlers is a demanding profession that could lead to negative emotions and behaviors. The objective of this study was to examine the impact of a positive organizational climate, job satisfaction, and self-efficacy on burnout and commitment, in turn leading to the reporting of misconduct and turnover intentions among childcare teachers. The study included 1,190 female childcare teachers from 119 daycare centers throughout Israel. The findings indicate that workload contributes to burnout (B = -.27; SE = .02) and dissatisfaction (B = .60; SE = .01). Furthermore, the findings suggest that a positive organizational climate and strong employee-employer relationship are negatively correlated with employee burnout (r = −0.356; p < 0.001; r = −0.178; p < 0.001). The more supportive the organizational climate the less likely that employee burnout will occur. The study concludes that nurturing a supportive organizational climate and building a strong employee-employer relationship can reduce employee burnout and its consequences.

The role of emotions in climate change communication: Examining the effects of strategy and issue framing on emotional responses and online climate action intentions

The way in which climate change-related information is framed can influence not only cognitive outcomes but also emotional responses. This web-based experiment (n = 331) investigated the effects of strategy framing and issue framing on emotions and online climate action intentions in the context of climate relationship between China and the United States. Results indicated that strategy framing increased negative emotions (i.e., anxiety and anger), whereas issue framing triggered more positive emotions (i.e., pride and excitement). No significant difference was observed regarding climate action intentions between two groups. Additionally, anxiety and anger mediated the effects of message framing on online climate action intentions. Habitual worry about climate change and attitude toward China-U.S. climate collaboration moderated the effects of strategy framing and issue framing on discrete emotions. The findings offer theoretical insights regarding emotional responses to strategy framing and practical implications on climate communication.

Microclimatic Zonation and Climatic Variability of Sikkim Himalaya

The Köppen classification of climate integrates precipitation and temperature information with natural vegetation patterns to create a precise representation of any particular region's climate. This integration depends on the empirical relationship of climate and vegetation, which indicates that distinct locations in the same class have similar vegetation attributes. Köppen climatic classification factors are explained and Sikkim's climate characteristics are regionalized based on it. The method for making representations of air temperatures and precipitation has been described, and an illustration of Sikkim's climatic zones with variability is generated as a result of these changes. The geographic pattern of climatic types and subtypes in Sikkim has been briefly addressed using an available high-resolution gridded dataset (ERA5-Land). This is described that the constraints of microclimatic zonation emanate from the empirical prerequisite of climate classifications, as well as the nature of data selection and the methodologies employed for climate variability analysis and classification. Based on the Köppen classification for the long term (1980–2021), the Sikkim Himalaya contains three primary climatic classes, particularly ETc (cold, tundra, and cool summer), Cfc (moderately warm, humid, and cool summer), and Cfb (moderately warm, humid, and warm summer). Climate variability on the basis of temperature and precipitation change with respect to 1980–2021 over the entire Sikkim Himalaya concludes that the climatic pattern of the Sikkim has been changed from cold-dry to warm-wet. The alteration in the corresponding climatic pattern is further supported by changes in LULC and NDVI. The results suggest that the precipitation change in the past two decades (1980–2000) is negative, while a significant positive change has been noticed in the recent two decades (2001–2021). Subsequently, the number of extremely wet days decreases in the entire ETc and Cfc climate zones. Regardless, the southern part of the Cfb climatic zone has experienced an increase in extremely wet days. This study's findings will significantly contribute to the development of future policies and initiatives by providing insights crucial for achieving sustainable development, environmental protection, and climate change adaptation.

Altitudinal Difference of Growth–Climate Response Models in the Coniferous Forests of Southeastern Tibetan Plateau, China

Characterized as a climatologically sensitive region, the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (STP) is an ideal location for dendrochronological research. Here, five tree-ring width (TRW) chronologies were developed: three for Picea likiangensis along altitudinal gradients from 3600 to 4400 m a.s.l. and two for Sabina saltuaria and Abies squamata from 4200 m a.s.l. Significant differences in the growth rates and age composition of Picea likiangensis were observed at various elevation gradients. The chronology statistics (mean sensitivity, etc.) fluctuated with the elevation gradient. Picea likiangensis showed distinct growth patterns in response to climatic variability along the altitude gradient: the minimum temperature influenced tree growth at lower and middle altitudes, while higher altitudes were affected by precipitation. The radial growth of different tree species growing in the same region is controlled by the same climatic factors. Sabina saltuaria and Abies squamata exhibited similar growth responses to Picea likiangensis. Stand conditions (wind speeds, slope, and elevation) and biotic factors (the depth of root, forest type, tree age, and sensitivity) can partially explain why the ring width–climate relationships change with altitude.

From eradication to conservation: identifying areas for restoration and management of a Pliocene relic in a changing climate

By 1985, approximately 400,000 ha of the keystone species Shinnery oak's (Quercus havardii) historic distribution had been eliminated for agricultural purposes across the southwestern United States. These trends indicate a need for targeted conservation and restoration efforts, especially considering the increased attention received for its role in providing habitat for endangered fauna. Setting spatially explicit conservation targets can be challenging for species with limited distributions, as the change in climate conditions over time may disconnect the relationship between environmental suitability and static, topo‐edaphic factors. Our objective was to identify areas for Shinnery oak restoration and conservation and explore the role climate plays in determining these areas while considering topo‐edaphic relationships. We constructed ecological niche models to estimate Shinnery oak's distribution under current climate conditions and temporally transferred our model using an ensemble‐mean of general circulation models to identify areas predicted to retain environmental suitability for Shinnery oak through 2100. The current distribution model was best informed by one climate and two topo‐edaphic variables. We created a second distribution model excluding topo‐edaphic variables to estimate future plant–climate relationships. Incorporating insights from models informed by both static (e.g. soil) and dynamic (e.g. climate) variables, we identified areas for conservation characterized by persistent climate suitability and high soil type suitability. Lastly, we incorporated data on land use and ownership to explore socio‐ecological influences on management decisions. By identifying areas of agreement between our modeled distributions and considering social context, we prioritized conservation areas where environmental suitability persists under changing conditions to facilitate restoration success.

Spotting Culex pipiens from satellite: modeling habitat suitability in central Italy using Sentinel-2 and deep learning techniques.

Culex pipiens, an important vector of many vector borne diseases, is a species capable to feeding on a wide variety of hosts and adapting to different environments. To predict the potential distribution of Cx. pipiens in central Italy, this study integrated presence/absence data from a four-year entomological survey (2019-2022) carried out in the Abruzzo and Molise regions, with a datacube of spectral bands acquired by Sentinel-2 satellites, as patches of 224 × 224 pixels of 20 meters spatial resolution around each site and for each satellite revisit time. We investigated three scenarios: the baseline model, which considers the environmental conditions at the time of collection; the multitemporal model, focusing on conditions in the 2 months preceding the collection; and the MultiAdjacency Graph Attention Network (MAGAT) model, which accounts for similarities in temperature and nearby sites using a graph architecture. For the baseline scenario, a deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) analyzed a single multi-band Sentinel-2 image. The DCNN in the multitemporal model extracted temporal patterns from a sequence of 10 multispectral images; the MAGAT model incorporated spatial and climatic relationships among sites through a graph neural network aggregation method. For all models, we also evaluated temporal lags between the multi-band Earth Observation datacube date of acquisition and the mosquito collection, from 0 to 50 days. The study encompassed a total of 2,555 entomological collections, and 108,064 images (patches) at 20 meters spatial resolution. The baseline model achieved an F1 score higher than 75.8% for any temporal lag, which increased up to 81.4% with the multitemporal model. The MAGAT model recorded the highest F1 score of 80.9%. The study confirms the widespread presence of Cx. pipiens throughout the majority of the surveyed area. Utilizing only Sentinel-2 spectral bands, the models effectively capture early in advance the temporal patterns of the mosquito population, offering valuable insights for directing surveillance activities during the vector season. The methodology developed in this study can be scaled up to the national territory and extended to other vectors, in order to support the Ministry of Health in the surveillance and control strategies for the vectors and the diseases they transmit.