Vital Statistics Registry Research Articles

Pharmacy Naloxone Standing Order and Community Opioid Fatality Rates Over Time

Despite the proliferation of pharmacy standing-order naloxone dispensing across many US states before the change to over-the-counter status, few policy analyses have evaluated the implementation of pharmacy naloxone standing orders in addressing opioid overdose fatality among communities. To determine whether the implementation of pharmacy standing-order naloxone was associated with lower opioid fatality rates compared with communities without pharmacies with standing-order naloxone. This retrospective multisite study was conducted with an interrupted time series analysis across 351 municipalities in Massachusetts over 24 quarters (from January 1, 2013, through December 31, 2018). Standing-order naloxone dispensing data were collected from 2 sources for all major chain pharmacies and many independent pharmacies, covering 70% of retail pharmacies in Massachusetts. Municipalities had various standing-order naloxone implementation inceptions during the study period. Data were analyzed from December 2021 to November 2023. The main exposure was measured by the first quarter with standing-order naloxone dispensation as the actual implementation inception. The primary study outcome was municipal opioid fatality rate per 100 000 population obtained from the Massachusetts Registry of Vital Records and Statistics. The median (IQR) population size across 351 municipalities was 10 314 (3635 to 21 781) people, with mean (SD) proportion of female individuals was 51.1% (2.8 percentage points). Pharmacies from 214 municipalities (60.9%) reported dispensing standing-order naloxone over the study period. At the baseline of the first quarter of 2013, municipalities that eventually had standing-order naloxone had greater quarterly opioid fatality rates compared with those that never implemented standing-order naloxone (3.51 vs 1.03 deaths per 100 000 population; P < .001). After adjusting for municipal-level sociodemographic and opioid prevention factors, there was significant slope decrease of opioid fatality rates (annualized rate ratio, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.78-0.91; P < .001) following standing-order naloxone dispensing, compared with the municipalities that did not implement standing-order naloxone. There were no significant level changes of opioid fatality rates in the adjusted models. Sensitivity analyses yielded similar and significant findings. These findings suggest that community pharmacy dispensing of naloxone with standing orders was associated with a relative, gradual, and significant decrease in opioid fatality rates compared with communities that did not implement the standing-order naloxone program. These findings support the expansion of naloxone access, including over-the-counter naloxone as part of a multifaceted approach to address opioid overdose.

The optimization of harm reduction services in Massachusetts through the use of GIS: Location-allocation analyses, 2019–2021

BackgroundFatal opioid-related overdoses (OOD) continue to be a leading cause of preventable death across the US. Opioid Overdose Education and Naloxone Distribution programs (OENDs) play a vital role in addressing morbidity and mortality associated with opioid use, but access to such services is often inequitable. We utilized a geographic information system (GIS) and spatial analytical methods to inform prioritized placement of OEND services in Massachusetts. MethodsWe obtained addresses for OEND sites from the Massachusetts Department of Public Health and address-level fatal OOD data for January 2019 to December 2021 from the Massachusetts Registry of Vital Records and Statistics. Using location-allocation approaches in ArcGIS Pro, we created p-median models using locations of existing OEND sites and fatal OOD counts to identify areas that should be prioritized for future OEND placement. Variables included in our analysis were transportation mode, distance from public schools, race and ethnicity, and location feasibility. ResultsThree Massachusetts communities – Athol, Dorchester, and Fitchburg – were identified as priority sites for new OEND locations using location-allocation models based on capacity to maximize OOD prevention. Communities identified by the models for OEND placement had similar demographics and overdose rates (42.8 per 100,000 vs 40.1 per 100,000 population) to communities with existing OEND programs but lower naloxone kit distribution rates (2589 doses per 100,000 vs 3704 doses per 100,000). Further models demonstrated differential access based on location and transportation. ConclusionOur analyses identified key areas of Massachusetts with greatest need for OEND services. Further, these results demonstrate the utility of using spatial epidemiological methods to inform public health recommendations.

Trends in drug overdose deaths among adults 65 years of age and older in Canada (2000–2022)

BackgroundAlthough young adults and middle-aged adults have borne the brunt of the drug overdose crisis in Canada, older adults are also at an increased risk of harms. We examined trends in drug overdose deaths and opioid overdose deaths among adults 65 years of age and older. MethodsAge-standardized rates of drug overdose deaths in Canada (2000–2022) and of opioid overdose deaths in Ontario (2003–2021) were computed. Drug overdose deaths were based on vital statistics registries, while opioid overdose deaths were based on toxicologic testing. Trends were characterized using joinpoint regression. ResultsDrug overdose deaths among adults 65 years of age and older in Canada rose from 4.3 to 9.9 deaths per million in the entire population between 2000 and 2022 (Average Annual Percentage Change [AAPC; 95 % CI]: 3.1 % [2.6 %-3.6 %]). Increases were observed in males (AAPC [95 % CI]: 4.0 % [3.1 %-4.9 %]), females (2.1 % [1.0 %-3.2 %]) and unintentional deaths (6.0 % [1.0 %-11.3 %]) after stratification by sex and manner of death. Opioid overdose deaths among adults 65 years of age and older in Ontario increased from 1.5 to 5.2 deaths per million in the entire population between 2003 and 2021 (AAPC [95 % CI]: 7.5 % [4.5 %-10.5 %]). ConclusionsDrug overdose deaths more than doubled in Canada and opioid overdose deaths more than tripled in Ontario among adults 65 years of age and older during the past two decades. These findings indicate a need for education of patients, prioritization of harm reduction interventions, screening, intervention and treatment and adherence to prescribing guidelines.

Neighborhood Deprivation and Breast Cancer Mortality Among Black and White Women

Neighborhood deprivation has been associated with increased breast cancer mortality among White women, but findings are inconsistent among Black women, who experience different neighborhood contexts. Accounting for interactions among neighborhood deprivation, race, and other neighborhood characteristics may enhance understanding of the association. To investigate whether neighborhood deprivation is associated with breast cancer mortality among Black and White women and whether interactions with rurality, residential mobility, and racial composition, which are markers of access, social cohesion, and segregation, respectively, modify the association. This population-based cohort study used Georgia Cancer Registry (GCR) data on women with breast cancer diagnosed in 2010 to 2017 and followed-up until December 31, 2022. Data were analyzed between January 2023 and October 2023. The study included non-Hispanic Black and White women with invasive early-stage (I-IIIA) breast cancer diagnosed between 2010 and 2017 and identified through the GCR. The Neighborhood Deprivation Index (NDI), assessed in quintiles, was derived through principal component analysis of 2011 to 2015 block group-level American Community Survey (ACS) data. Rurality, neighborhood residential mobility, and racial composition were measured using Georgia Public Health Department or ACS data. The primary outcome was breast cancer-specific mortality identified by the GCR through linkage to the Georgia vital statistics registry and National Death Index. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate age-adjusted and multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for the association between neighborhood deprivation and breast cancer mortality. Among the 36 795 patients with breast cancer (mean [SD] age at diagnosis, 60.3 [13.1] years), 11 044 (30.0%) were non-Hispanic Black, and 25 751 (70.0%) were non-Hispanic White. During follow-up, 2942 breast cancer deaths occurred (1214 [41.3%] non-Hispanic Black women; 1728 [58.7%] non-Hispanic White women). NDI was associated with an increase in breast cancer mortality (quintile 5 vs 1, HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.19-1.55) in Cox proportional hazards models. The association was present only among non-Hispanic White women (quintile 5 vs 1, HR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.21-1.79). Similar race-specific patterns were observed in jointly stratified analyses, such that NDI was associated with increased breast cancer mortality among non-Hispanic White women, but not non-Hispanic Black women, irrespective of the additional neighborhood characteristics considered. In this cohort study, neighborhood deprivation was associated with increased breast cancer mortality among non-Hispanic White women. Neighborhood racial composition, residential mobility, and rurality did not explain the lack of association among non-Hispanic Black women, suggesting that factors beyond those explored here may contribute to breast cancer mortality in this racial group.

Maternal Mortality at Al-Wahda Tertiary Hospital/ Derna -Lybia

Maternal mortality is one of the major challenges which face the developing countries throughout the world. The maternal mortality ratio (MMR) is the main public health indicator that determines the quality of health care services and the women’s status. However, maternal mortality is much higher in developing countries compared to developed nations due to lack of adequate medical care; high prevalence of infectious diseases, higher total fertility rate and due to health care system difference. Countries with high maternal mortality ratio have less reliable vital statistics registry system; as a result level of maternal mortality is usually underestimated and little information is available regarding locally specific risk factors for maternal death. The aim of this study is to calculate, identify the risk factors and the causes of maternal mortality at Al-WhahdaTertiaryhospital/Derna- Libya. This was a retrospective descriptive study of ten years conducted at Al-Wahda hospital Derna,Libya. Detailed retrospective reviews of the data were undertaken from the casenotes of 31782 admissions in the obstetrics unit during 10 years period from 2013 to 2022. The information was retrieved from the case notes available in the medical records department of the hospital as well as from the daily records in the maternity and delivery worlds of the hospital during the study period. There was a total of 31782 deliveries conducted during the study period. The maternal mortality ratio was 34.84 per 100,000 live-births in the year 2013 to 2022. The mean age of maternal deaths was34.36±5.54 years. Most of deaths occur in postpartum period.The major causes of deaths were pulmonary and amniotic fluid embolism followed by postpartum haemorrahge. The maternal mortality is high despite the availability of comprehensive emergency obstetric care at the hospital. Pulmonary and amniotic fluid embolism are the leading causes of death in one of the tertiary care teaching hospitals in Libya.

Causes of death in patients operated for colorectal cancer

BackgroundColorectal cancer remains the third leading cause of cancer-related mortality in the United States. This study evaluates the causes of death in patients operated on for colorectal cancer and their determinants. MethodsAn Instructional Review Board-approved database containing patients who underwent surgical resection for colorectal cancer from 2004 to 2018 (last followed up in December 2020) in a tertiary care institution. Data on the underlying cause of death was extracted from the Registry of Vital Records and Statistics in Massachusetts. ResultsA total of 576 deaths were recorded in the database, of which 290 (50.35%) patients died of colorectal cancer. Deaths from colorectal cancer gradually decreased over time, whereas deaths from other cancers increased, and deaths from cardiovascular diseases remained stable. Patients who died from colorectal cancer were younger, died earlier in the disease course, had fewer comorbidities, higher rates of stage IV disease, rectal cancer, neoadjuvant therapy, extramural vascular invasion, perineural invasion, R0 resection, and preserved mismatch repair protein status. On multivariate analysis, age (adjusted odds ratio for 10-year increase = 0.79, 95% confidence interval 0.65–0.95), American Society of Anesthesiologists score (adjusted odds ratio = 0.64, confidence interval 0.42–0.98), stage IV disease (adjusted odds ratio = 3.02, confidence interval 1.59–5.9), neoadjuvant therapy (adjusted odds ratio = 7.91, confidence interval 2.64–28.13), extramural vascular invasion (adjusted odds ratio = 2.3, confidence interval 1.36–3.91) & time from diagnosis to death (adjusted odds ratio = 0.76, confidence interval 0.68–0.83) predicted death due to colorectal cancer versus other causes, whereas tumor location, perineural invasion, R0 resection, and mismatch repair protein status did not. ConclusionThere is a declining trend of deaths from colorectal cancer, presumably reflecting advances in colorectal cancer management strategies and better screening over time. However, younger patients disproportionately contribute to death due to colorectal cancer and need aggressive screening and management strategies.

Mortality burden attributable to exceptional PM2.5 air pollution events in Australian cities: A health impact assessment

BackgroundPeople living in Australian cities face increased mortality risks from exposure to extreme air pollution events due to bushfires and dust storms. However, the burden of mortality attributable to exceptional PM2.5 levels has not been well characterised. We assessed the burden of mortality due to PM2.5 pollution events in Australian capital cities between 2001 and 2020. MethodsFor this health impact assessment, we obtained data on daily counts of deaths for all non-accidental causes and ages from the Australian National Vital Statistics Register. Daily concentrations of PM2.5 were estimated at a 5 km grid cell, using a Random Forest statistical model of data from air pollution monitoring sites combined with a range of satellite and land use-related data. We calculated the exceptional PM2.5 levels for each extreme pollution exposure day using the deviation from a seasonal and trend loess decomposition model. The burden of mortality was examined using a relative risk concentration-response function suggested in the literature. FindingsOver the 20-year study period, we estimated 1454 (95 % CI 987, 1920) deaths in the major Australian cities attributable to exceptional PM2.5 exposure levels. The mortality burden due to PM2.5 exposure on extreme pollution days was considerable. Variations were observed across Australia. Despite relatively low daily PM2.5 levels compared to global averages, all Australian cities have extreme pollution exposure days, with PM2.5 concentrations exceeding the World Health Organisation Air Quality Guideline standard for 24-h exposure. Our analysis results indicate that nearly one-third of deaths from extreme air pollution exposure can be prevented with a 5 % reduction in PM2.5 levels on days with exceptional pollution. InterpretationExposure to exceptional PM2.5 events was associated with an increased mortality burden in Australia's cities. Policies and coordinated action are needed to manage the health risks of extreme air pollution events due to bushfires and dust storms under climate change.

Opioid-related mortality: Dynamic temporal and spatial trends by drug type and demographic subpopulations, Massachusetts, 2005–2021

BackgroundFatal opioid-related overdoses (OOD) present significant public health challenges. Intuitive and replicable analytical approaches are needed to inform targeted public health responses. MethodsWe obtained fatal OOD data for 2005–2021 from the Massachusetts Registry of Vital Records and Statistics. We conducted heatmap analyses to assess trends in fatal OOD rates per 100,000 residents, visualizing rates by death year and decedent age at one-year intervals, stratifying by race/ethnicity, sex, rurality, and involved substances. We calculated Getis-Ord Gi* statistics to identify spatial clusters of OOD rates. ResultsAmong 20,774 fatal OODs, rates were higher among males, and highly variable by race/ethnicity, age group, and rurality. While fatal OOD rates increased in urban before rural communities, rates were higher in rural communities by 2018–2019. Stimulant-related fatal OODs were elevated in 2020 and 2021. Fatal OOD rates involving fentanyl and stimulants increased precipitously and simultaneously in the non-Hispanic Black population in 2020 and 2021, with a bimodal age distribution peaking among those in their 40s and 60s. Elevated rates among 30-to-60 year old Hispanic residents were largely tied to synthetic opioids from 2015 to 2021. Spatial clusters were detected for prescription opioids, heroin, and stimulants in western Massachusetts. For synthetic opioids, hotspots became more ubiquitous across the state from 2016 to 2021, intensifying in southeastern Massachusetts. ConclusionOur novel approach uncovered new time varying and spatial patterns in fatal OOD rates not previously reported. Identified shifts in fatal OOD rates by sex, age, and race/ethnicity can inform location-specific field actions targeting subpopulations at disproportionally high risk.

Small Area Forecasting of Opioid-Related Mortality: Bayesian Spatiotemporal Dynamic Modeling Approach

Opioid-related overdose mortality has remained at crisis levels across the United States, increasing 5-fold and worsened during the COVID-19 pandemic. The ability to provide forecasts of opioid-related mortality at granular geographical and temporal scales may help guide preemptive public health responses. Current forecasting models focus on prediction on a large geographical scale, such as states or counties, lacking the spatial granularity that local public health officials desire to guide policy decisions and resource allocation. The overarching objective of our study was to develop Bayesian spatiotemporal dynamic models to predict opioid-related mortality counts and rates at temporally and geographically granular scales (ie, ZIP Code Tabulation Areas [ZCTAs]) for Massachusetts. We obtained decedent data from the Massachusetts Registry of Vital Records and Statistics for 2005 through 2019. We developed Bayesian spatiotemporal dynamic models to predict opioid-related mortality across Massachusetts' 537 ZCTAs. We evaluated the prediction performance of our models using the one-year ahead approach. We investigated the potential improvement of prediction accuracy by incorporating ZCTA-level demographic and socioeconomic determinants. We identified ZCTAs with the highest predicted opioid-related mortality in terms of rates and counts and stratified them by rural and urban areas. Bayesian dynamic models with the full spatial and temporal dependency performed best. Inclusion of the ZCTA-level demographic and socioeconomic variables as predictors improved the prediction accuracy, but only in the model that did not account for the neighborhood-level spatial dependency of the ZCTAs. Predictions were better for urban areas than for rural areas, which were more sparsely populated. Using the best performing model and the Massachusetts opioid-related mortality data from 2005 through 2019, our models suggested a stabilizing pattern in opioid-related overdose mortality in 2020 and 2021 if there were no disruptive changes to the trends observed for 2005-2019. Our Bayesian spatiotemporal models focused on opioid-related overdose mortality data facilitated prediction approaches that can inform preemptive public health decision-making and resource allocation. While sparse data from rural and less populated locales typically pose special challenges in small area predictions, our dynamic Bayesian models, which maximized information borrowing across geographic areas and time points, were used to provide more accurate predictions for small areas. Such approaches can be replicated in other jurisdictions and at varying temporal and geographical levels. We encourage the formation of a modeling consortium for fatal opioid-related overdose predictions, where different modeling techniques could be ensembled to inform public health policy.

The prevalence of opioid use disorder in Kentucky’s counties: A two-year multi-sample capture-recapture analysis

BackgroundKentucky has one of the highest opioid overdose mortality rates in the United States. Accurate estimates of people with opioid use disorder (OUD) are critical to plan for the scope of interventions required to reduce overdose and opioid misuse. Commonly used household surveys are known to underestimate OUD at the state-level and do not provide county-level estimates. MethodsWe performed a multi-sample capture-recapture analysis to estimate OUD prevalence in Kentucky in 2018 and 2019. We utilized four statewide datasets that were linked at the individual level: 1) Registry of Vital Statistics, 2) Emergency Medical Services (EMS), 3) Kentucky’s Prescription Drug Monitoring Program (PDMP), and 4) Kentucky Medicaid. We included persons aged 18–64 years who resided in Kentucky between 2018 and 2019. We identified individuals with administrative data consistent with OUD in each of the datasets, including a fatal opioid-involved overdose (Vital Statistics), EMS runs for suspected opioid overdose, receipt of buprenorphine for OUD treatment (PDMP), or Medicaid claims for OUD. Observed and estimated counts of OUD cases and prevalence of OUD among the adult population in Kentucky. ResultsThe estimated statewide OUD prevalence was 5.5 % and 5.9 % for 2018 and 2019, respectively, ranging from 1.3 % to 17.7 % across Kentucky counties. As expected, counties with the highest OUD rates were Appalachian counties (eastern area) of the state. ConclusionsOur analysis reveals a substantially larger proportion of KY residents have OUD than previously estimated. Our approach offers a model for states needing county-level estimates of OUD.

Bedaquiline safety, efficacy, utilization and emergence of resistance following treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis patients in South Africa: a retrospective cohort analysis

BackgroundThis retrospective cohort study assessed benefits and risks of bedaquiline treatment in multidrug-resistant-tuberculosis (MDR-TB) combination therapy by evaluating safety, effectiveness, drug utilization and emergence of resistance to bedaquiline.MethodsData were extracted from a register of South African drug-resistant-tuberculosis (DR-TB) patients (Electronic DR-TB Register [EDRWeb]) for newly diagnosed patients with MDR-TB (including pre-extensively drug-resistant [XDR]-TB and XDR-TB and excluding rifampicin-mono-resistant [RR]-TB, as these patients are by definition not multidrug-resistant), receiving either a bedaquiline-containing or non-bedaquiline-containing regimen, at 14 sites in South Africa. Total duration of treatment and follow-up was up to 30 months, including 6 months’ bedaquiline treatment. WHO treatment outcomes within 6 months after end-of-treatment were assessed in both patient groups. Longer term mortality (up to 30 months from treatment start) was evaluated through matching to the South African National Vital Statistics Register. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses were used to predict association between receiving a bedaquiline-containing regimen and treatment outcome.ResultsData were extracted from EDRWeb for 5981 MDR-TB patients (N = 3747 bedaquiline-treated; N = 2234 non-bedaquiline-treated) who initiated treatment between 2015 and 2017, of whom 40.7% versus 80.6% had MDR-TB. More bedaquiline-treated than non-bedaquiline-treated patients had pre-XDR-TB (27.7% versus 9.5%) and XDR-TB (31.5% versus 9.9%) per pre-2021 WHO definitions. Most patients with treatment duration data (94.3%) received bedaquiline for 6 months. Treatment success (per pre-2021 WHO definitions) was achieved in 66.9% of bedaquiline-treated and 49.4% of non-bedaquiline-treated patients. Death was reported in fewer bedaquiline-treated (15.4%) than non-bedaquiline-treated (25.6%) patients. Bedaquiline-treated patients had increased likelihood of treatment success and decreased risk of mortality versus non-bedaquiline-treated patients. In patients with evaluable drug susceptibility testing data, 3.5% of bedaquiline-susceptible isolates at baseline acquired phenotypic resistance. Few patients reported bedaquiline-related treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) (1.8%), TEAE-related bedaquiline discontinuations (1.4%) and QTcF values > 500 ms (2.5%) during treatment.ConclusionData from this large cohort of South African patients with MDR-TB showed treatment with bedaquiline-containing regimens was associated with survival and effectiveness benefit compared with non-bedaquiline-containing regimens. No new safety signals were detected. These data are consistent with the positive risk–benefit profile of bedaquiline and warrant continued implementation in combination therapy for MDR-TB treatment.

The Impact of Supportive Housing on Liver-Related Outcomes Among Persons With Hepatitis C Virus Infection.

BackgroundHepatitis C virus (HCV) infection disproportionately impacts people experiencing homelessness. Hepatitis C virus can lead to negative health outcomes, including mortality. We evaluated the impact of a permanent supportive housing (PSH) program (ie, “treatment”) on liver-related morbidity and mortality among persons with chronic homelessness and HCV infection.MethodsWe matched records for persons eligible for a New York City PSH program (2007–2014) with Heath Department HCV and Vital Statistics registries and Medicaid claims. Among persons diagnosed with HCV before or 2 years posteligibility, we added stabilized inverse probability of treatment weights to negative binomial regression models to compare rates for liver disease-related emergency department visits and hospitalizations, and hazard ratios for mortality, by program placement 2 and 5 years posteligibility.ResultsWe identified 1158 of 8783 placed and 1952 of 19 019 unplaced persons with laboratory-confirmed HCV infection. Permanent supportive housing placement was associated with significantly reduced liver-related emergency department visits (adjusted rate ratio [aRR] = 0.76, 95% confidence interval [CI] = .61–.95), hospitalizations (aRR = 0.62, 95% CI = .54–.71), and all-cause (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 0.65, 95% CI = .46–.92) and liver-related mortality (aHR = 0.72, 95% CI = .09–.83) within 2 years. The reduction remained significant for hospitalizations after 5 years.ConclusionsPlacement into PSH was associated with reduced liver-related morbidity and mortality among persons with HCV infection and chronic homelessness.

Региональные особенности рождаемости и смертности населения Северокавказского регио-на в период голода 1932–1933 годов

The article reviews the vital statistics analysis during the 1932–1933 famine in the North Cauca-sus region. It has been established that vital statistics registration high level and full population cover occurred in Don, Kuban’ and Stavropol’ regions high underestimating of rural population occurred in highlands national autonomies. The non-local and unknown identity residents’ birth rate and mortality are registered in Dagestan, but for other regions, the registration of non-local and unknown identity residents and presence of these data in vital statistics has not ascertained. The estimation of birth rate and mortality has done for North Caucasus by regions with underes-timating correction. It has been shown that characteristic famine peak occurred in 1933 year spring in Don, Kuban’ and Stavropol’ regions at the same time and almost equally. The most high mortality of rural population was in Stavropol’ region, regions of Kuban’ and southern Don were losses rather fewer and fewer losses regions of north Don. It has been detected the regions of cata-strophic mortality and catastrophic of natural loss of population. The natural increase of rural population was in highlands national autonomies and Black Sea seaside regions of Kuban. It has been ascertained, that urban population mortality of North Caucasus was not low mortality than country. It has been shown the demographic catastrophe in North Caucasus cities and towns, which disprove sociocide of country people (Cossacks) hypothesis in examined region during the 1932–1933 famine. It has been demonstrated absence of ethnocide (genocide) in North Caucasus regions and famine artificiality by common plan and central authority organization. The mortality in North Caucasus had zonal allocation and was determined by local government response, natu-ral, climate and epidemics conditions and administrative borders most likely. The total demo-graphic losses due to decreased birth rate in North Caucasus regions in 1932–1934 came to 190000 persons and entire number of excess deaths – 280000 persons.

Do prognoses of patients with second primary cancers differ from those of patients with no prior cancer? A population-based study

BackgroundSome cancer survivors develop second primary cancers. However, differences in prognosis between patients who have and have not had prior cancer have not been established. We examined and compared the prognoses of such patients. MethodsUsing the record-linked database of the population-based Cancer Registry of Osaka Prefecture and Vital Statistics in Japan, we identified patients aged ≥ 40 years who were diagnosed with stomach (n = 70,946), colorectal (n = 60,582), or lung (n = 58,016) cancers during 1995–2009. We defined these cancers as index cancers. Patients were classified into three groups according to history of prior cancer and interval between diagnosis of index and prior cancer: single (no prior cancer or interval of ≥10 years), synchronous (interval ≤3 months), and metachronous (interval 3 months to 10 years). The 5-year prognosis from index cancer diagnosis was investigated using the Kaplan–Meier method and log-rank test. Results5-year prognoses of patients with synchronous stomach and colorectal cancers were significantly worse than that of patients with single primary, about 60 % of these patients’ deaths being attributable to the prior cancer. In contrast, 5-year prognoses of patients with metachronous primaries were not significantly worse, except for men with colorectal cancer. The percentages of index cancer deaths were 1.7–4.3 times those for non-index cancer deaths. ConclusionA prior cancer contributed to an inferior prognosis in patients with synchronous stomach and colorectal cancers. The prognoses of patients with metachronous primaries were more affected by the index than by the prior cancer, whereas most of them had similar or better prognoses than did patients with a single primary. This finding would help to relieve cancer survivors’ anxiety about their development and prognosis of metachronous second primary cancer.

Method-specific suicide trends from 1979 to 2016 among Japanese adolescents

BackgroundIn 2015 the Japanese government set a target of a 30% reduction in the total suicide rate by 2025, but deaths among adolescents have been rising since. In 2018 the overall suicide rate increased by 33% among Japanese students, as a part of a continued trend of rising suicide among adolescents. This study analysed the trends in method-specific suicide among Japanese adolescents from 1979 to 2016. MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional study using data obtained from the vital statistics registration of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare Japan. Poisson regression analysis was performed among 10–20-year-olds separately by sex, with year, age category, suicide method and a 1998 step variable as covariates. ResultsThere was a sharp increase in suicide rates among boys (Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR), 1.68; 95% CI, 1.58–1.77) and girls (IRR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.56–1.84) aged 10–20 years in 1998 when the overall suicide rate in Japan was at its peak. The commonly used method of suicide, hanging, has increased rapidly among high school and university-level aged adolescents since 1998. LimitationsThe computed mortality rates may have been affected by the shift in mortality coding from ICD-9 to ICD-10 in 1995. ConclusionsSuicide among adolescents has been rising since the early 1990s. Several cultural factors such as notoriety of internet suicide and detergent suicide could have influenced the increase in suicide among adolescents. There is an urgent need to address suicide by hanging and gas among high school and university-aged adolescents.

The impact of oophorectomy on survival from breast cancer in patients with CHEK2 mutations.

To estimate the impact of oophorectomy and other treatments on the survival of breast cancer patients with a CHEK2 mutation. Women with Stage I-III breast cancer who were treated at 17 hospitals in Poland were tested for four founder mutations in the CHEK2 gene. 974 women (10%) were positive for a CHEK2 mutation. Control patients without a CHEK2 mutation were selected from a database of patients treated over the same time period. Information on treatments received and distant recurrences were retrieved from medical records. Treatments included chemotherapy, hormonal therapy (tamoxifen) and radiation therapy. Oophorectomies were performed for the treatment of breast cancer or for benign conditions. Dates of death were obtained from the Polish Vital Statistics Registry. Causes of death were determined by medical record review. Predictors of survival were determined using the Cox proportional hazards model. In all, 839 patients with a CHEK2 mutation were matched to 839 patients without a mutation. The mean follow-up was 12.0 years. The 15-year survival for CHEK2 carriers was 76.6% and the 15-year survival for non-carrier control patients was 78.8% (adjusted HR = 1.06; 95% CI: 0.84-1.34; P = 0.61). Among CHEK2 carriers, the 15-year survival for women who had an oophorectomy was 86.3% and for women who did not have an oophorectomy was 72.1% (adjusted HR = 0.59; 95% CI: 0.38-0.90; P = 0.02). Among controls, the 15-year survival for patients who had an oophorectomy was 84.5% and for women who did not have an oophorectomy was 77.6% (adjusted HR = 1.03; 95% CI: 0.66-1.61; P = 0.90). Among women with breast cancer and a CHEK2 mutation, oophorectomy is associated with a reduced risk of death from breast cancer.

Exposure to armed conflict as a factor associated with very low birth weight: Case‐control population study

AbstractObjectiveTo determine the association between armed conflict and very low birth wright (VLBW), which is a multifactorial etiology public health problem that includes aspects of poverty and violence.MethodsCase‐control population study matched by year of delivery conducted in Cauca, Colombia, between 2010 and 2016. Cases of VLBW, with weights between 500 and 1499 g and controls weighing between 2500 and 3999 g. Cases and controls were identified through the vital statistics registry, and exposure was determined using a multidimensional index designed by the Colombian State. Multiple gestations were excluded. Conditional logistic regression for matched data was used, adjusting for confounding variables.ResultsOverall, 7068 matched participants (1767 cases and 5301 controls) were included. Cases and controls had similar baseline characteristics. Participants were predominantly women in the second and third decades of life, 3222 (46%) were exposed to armed conflict, and 1902 (27%) were of African‐Colombian or indigenous ethnicity. Maternal exposure to armed conflict significantly increased the odds of VLBW among women with rural birth (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 3.86, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.74–5.45) and inadequate prenatal care (aOR 10.38, 95% CI 8.20–13.12).ConclusionExposure to armed conflict increases the odds of VLBW neonates. This factor needs to be considered in prenatal care.

Regional features of birth and mortality rate in the Volga-Vyatka, Middle Volga and Orenburg regions during the famine of 1932–1933

The paper analyzes the vital statistics of the 19321933 famine in the Volga-Vyatka, Middle Volga and Orenburg regions (Gorkovsky and the Middle Volga Krais with national autonomous areas and the Tatar ASSR within the 1933 borders). It has been established that a high level of vital statistics registration occurred in most studied regions, high underestimating occurred in the rural areas of the Middle Volga Krai and Mordovia especially. High underestimating mortality among non-local residents and unidentified residents has not been established. Birth and mortality rate of non-local residents and unidentified residents were registered by local statistical service structures and were included in regional statistical reports, but their presence in central statistical reports has not been established. A high percentage of dead migrants in the towns has been shown, it refutes the opinion of administrative migration limit during the famine. It has been established that mortality in the town population was not lower and even exceeded rural mortality in some cases. It refutes the opinion that peasantry suffered from the famine most of all. The author proves that there was no sociocide or ethnocide (genocide) in the studied regions during the 19321933 famine. The high population loss in the Low Volga region was compensated by natural population increase in the Volga-Vyatka and Middle Volga regions. The mortality as well as birth rate varied dramatically within different administrative borders, indicating specific local conditions (local government response, natural and climate conditions, etc.), that invalidate hypothesis of authorities-made famine. The mortality peaks in 19321933 may indicate not only the famine, but seasonal epidemics as well and require additional research. The author has established that it is necessary to consider regional climatic conditions when analyzing vital statistics during the 19321933 famine. The entire number of deaths excess during the 19321933 famine totaled up to 324 000 in the Volga-Vyatka, Volga (excluding the Kalmyk Autonomous Oblast in 1933) regions and 48 000 deaths excess in the Gorkovsky and Middle Volga Krais, and Tatar ASSR in 1934. The total demographic losses due to a decreased birth rate in the Volga-Vyatka, Volga (excluding Kalmyk Autonomous Oblast in 1933) and Orenburg Regions in 19321934 came to 306 000 people.

Validity of an algorithm to identify cardiovascular deaths from administrative health records: a multi-database population-based cohort study

BackgroundCardiovascular death is a common outcome in population-based studies about new healthcare interventions or treatments, such as new prescription medications. Vital statistics registration systems are often the preferred source of information about cause-specific mortality because they capture verified information about the deceased, but they may not always be accessible for linkage with other sources of population-based data. We assessed the validity of an algorithm applied to administrative health records for identifying cardiovascular deaths in population-based data.MethodsAdministrative health records were from an existing multi-database cohort study about sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors, a new class of antidiabetic medications. Data were from 2013 to 2018 for five Canadian provinces (Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec) and the United Kingdom (UK) Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). The cardiovascular mortality algorithm was based on in-hospital cardiovascular deaths identified from diagnosis codes and select out-of-hospital deaths. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV) were calculated for the cardiovascular mortality algorithm using vital statistics registrations as the reference standard. Overall and stratified estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed; the latter were produced by site, location of death, sex, and age.ResultsThe cohort included 20,607 individuals (58.3% male; 77.2% ≥70 years). When compared to vital statistics registrations, the cardiovascular mortality algorithm had overall sensitivity of 64.8% (95% CI 63.6, 66.0); site-specific estimates ranged from 54.8 to 87.3%. Overall specificity was 74.9% (95% CI 74.1, 75.6) and overall PPV was 54.5% (95% CI 53.7, 55.3), while site-specific PPV ranged from 33.9 to 72.8%. The cardiovascular mortality algorithm had sensitivity of 57.1% (95% CI 55.4, 58.8) for in-hospital deaths and 72.3% (95% CI 70.8, 73.9) for out-of-hospital deaths; specificity was 88.8% (95% CI 88.1, 89.5) for in-hospital deaths and 58.5% (95% CI 57.3, 59.7) for out-of-hospital deaths.ConclusionsA cardiovascular mortality algorithm applied to administrative health records had moderate validity when compared to vital statistics data. Substantial variation existed across study sites representing different geographic locations and two healthcare systems. These variations may reflect different diagnostic coding practices and healthcare utilization patterns.

The opioid crisis is driving mortality among under-served people living with HIV in British Columbia, Canada

IntroductionUniversal provision of effective antiretroviral medication has been essential to reduce mortality, increase longevity, and reduce onward transmission of HIV. This study aims to illuminate persistent threats to the health and longevity of under-served PLWH in British Columbia (BC), Canada.MethodsBetween 2007 and 2010, 1000 PLWH across BC were enrolled in the Longitudinal Investigation into Supportive and Ancillary health services (LISA) study and completed a cross-sectional survey on their HIV-care experiences and healthcare engagement. The sample generally reflects an under-served population of PLWH. A linkage to the provincial Vital Statistics registry is used in this analysis in order to examine overall mortality and cause-specific mortality trends; probability of death was modeled using logistic regression for participants with ongoing clinical monitoring (n = 910).ResultsBy June 2017, 208 (20.8%) participants had died. The majority of deaths 57 (27.4%) were attributed to drug-related complications or overdoses, 39 (18.8%) were attributed to HIV-related complications, and 36 (17.3%) to non-AIDS-defining malignancies. We observed elevated odds of death among PLWH who smoked tobacco (aOR: 2.11, 95% CI: 1.38, 3.23), were older (aOR: 1.06 per one-year increase, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.08), indicated heavy alcohol consumption (aOR: 1.57, 95% CI: 1.11, 2.22), and reported unstable housing (aOR: 1.96, 95% CI: 1.37, 2.80); while higher CD4 cell count was protective (aOR: 0.87 per 100-unit increase, 95% CI: 0.79, 0.94) as was male gender), though non-significant (aOR: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.49, 1.07).ConclusionsOverdose is - the leading cause of mortality among a cohort of under-served PLWH in BC, Canada. Public health efforts to end the HIV epidemic and support the health and well-being of PLWH are being thwarted by persistent health inequities and the enormous and persistent risks facing people who use drugs. Integrated low-barrier primary care is essential for supporting under-served PLWH, and safe drug supply is needed to support PLWH who use drugs.