Permafrost Regions Research Articles

Effects of Forest Fires on Boreal Permafrost and Soil Microorganisms: A Review

The frequency of forest fires has increased dramatically due to climate change. The occurrence of forest fires affects the carbon and nitrogen cycles and react to climate change to form a positive feedback mechanism. These effects further impact the distribution of microbial biomass carbon (MBC) and microbial biomass nitrogen (MBN) and the soil microbial community structure. In addition, permafrost degradation can significantly affect the microorganisms in the soil. Based on these findings, this review examines the effects of fire intensity and post-fire recovery time on permafrost, the soil microbial community, MBC, MBN, and their interrelationships. This review demonstrated that (1) fires alter the condition of surface vegetation, reduce the organic layer thickness, redistribute snow, accelerate permafrost degradation, and even lead to permanent changes, where the restoration of the pre-fire state would require several decades or even centuries; (2) soil microbial community structure, soil MBC, and MBN negatively correlate with fire intensity, and the effects become more pronounced with increasing fire intensity; and (3) the structural diversity and stability of the soil microbial community were improved with time, and the amount of MBC and MBN increases as the years after a fire go by; it would still take more than ten years to recover to the pre-fire level. However, the relationship between permafrost degradation and soil microbes after forest fires is still unclear due to a lack of quantitative research on the mechanisms underlying the changes in soil microorganisms resulting from fire-induced permafrost degradation. Therefore, expanding quantitative studies and analyses of the mechanisms of interactions between forest fires, permafrost, and soil microorganisms can provide a scientific basis for understanding ecosystem carbon pools and dual-carbon targets in Arctic–boreal permafrost regions.

Machine learning-based predictions of current and future susceptibility to retrogressive thaw slumps across the Northern Hemisphere

Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs) caused by the thawing of ground ice on permafrost slopes have dramatically increased and become a common permafrost hazard across the Northern Hemisphere during previous decades. However, a gap remains in our comprehensive understanding of the spatial controlling factors, including the climate and terrain, that are conducive to these RTSs at a global scale. Using machine learning methodologies, we mapped the current and future RTSs susceptibility distributions by incorporating a range of environmental factors and RTSs inventories. We identified freezing-degree days and maximum summer rainfall as the primary environmental factors affecting RTSs susceptibility. The final ensemble susceptibility map suggests that regions with high to very high susceptibility could constitute (11.6 ± 0.78)% of the Northern Hemisphere's permafrost region. When juxtaposed with the current (2000–2020) RTSs susceptibility map, the total area with high to very high susceptibility could witness an increase ranging from (31.7 ± 0.65)% (SSP585) to (51.9 ± 0.73)% (SSP126) by the 2041–2060. The insights gleaned from this study not only offer valuable implications for engineering applications across the Northern Hemisphere, but also provide a long-term insight into the potential change of RTSs in permafrost regions in response to climate change.

Preliminary Insight into Ice Melting, Surface Subsidence, and Wellhead Instability during Oil and Gas Extraction in Permafrost Region

Oil and gas production in permafrost can effectively alleviate energy tensions. However, ice melting around wellbores and the accompanying wellhead instability affect the efficiency and safety of oil and gas development in permafrost. Moreover, the potential oil and gas leakage will damage the environment and the ecology of permafrost. Unfortunately, ice melting, formation subsidence, and wellhead behavior during this process have rarely been investigated in previous studies. In the present work, mechanical properties of permafrost were first experimentally investigated, which provided the basic parameter for subsequent numerical simulation. It was found that the ultimate strength gradually increased with the decreasing temperature, as well as the increasing confining pressure. Meanwhile, although the elastic modulus increased with decreasing temperature, it was less affected by confining pressure. Unlike other parameters, the Poisson’s ratio was hardly affected by temperature and confining pressure. Moreover, both the internal friction angle and the cohesion increased with decreasing temperature, but the influence degree varied within different temperature ranges. Then, ice melting, formation subsidence, and the instability behavior of the wellhead caused by the disturbance of the development operation were numerically explored. The investigation results show that the ice melting range in the reservoir section reached 8.06 m, which is much wider than that in other well sections. Moreover, failure of the cement–permafrost interface, caused by ice melting, resulted in a wellhead sinking of up to 1.350 m. Finally, the insulation effect of the vacuum-insulated casing showed that the temperature drop of the designed vacuum-insulated casing was much lower than that of the ordinary casing. When the fluid temperature within the wellbore was 70 °C, the temperature drop of the designed vacuum-insulated casing was 3.54 °C lower than that of the ordinary casing. This study provides support for maintaining wellhead stability during oil and gas extraction in permafrost for avoiding some environmental disasters (such as oil and gas leakage).

Experimental study of polyurethane cement composite–reinforced soft soil in the thawed layer in permafrost regions

Permafrost degradation induces a large number of thawed layers that have high water content, low bearing capacity, and high compressibility, which threaten the stability of infrastructure in permafrost regions. How to reinforce the soft layers of thawed permafrost is very essential for maintaining and repairing such infrastructure. This study investigates the reinforcement effect and mechanism of a polyurethane cement composite (PUC) on the soft soil in the thawed layer (SSTL) of permafrost through mechanical and microscopic tests. The experimental results indicate that the unconfined compressive strength (UCS) of the SSLT initially increases and then decreases with increasing hydrophilic polyurethane (WPU) content, while it increases with higher polymer cement content (PMC). The UCS of the SSLT reinforced with 10% WPU increases by 41.96% and 18.75% in the early and late stages, respectively, compared to a SSLT sample without added WPU at a moisture content of 40%, while the cohesion of the SSLT increases by 7.74%, and the internal friction angle increases by 29.48%. A microscopic analysis reveals that the PUC significantly enhances the microstructure of the SSLT through intricate physical and chemical reactions. PUC-reinforced SSLT provides a new way to address the settlement and deformation that adversely affect subgrade in permafrost regions.

Mapping Permafrost Variability and Degradation Using Seismic Surface Waves, Electrical Resistivity, and Temperature Sensing: A Case Study in Arctic Alaska

AbstractSubsurface processes significantly influence surface dynamics in permafrost regions, necessitating utilizing diverse geophysical methods to reliably constrain permafrost characteristics. This research uses multiple geophysical techniques to explore the spatial variability of permafrost in undisturbed tundra and its degradation in disturbed tundra in Utqiaġvik, Alaska. Here, we integrate multiple quantitative techniques, including multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW), electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), and ground temperature sensing, to study heterogeneity in permafrost’s geophysical characteristics. MASW results reveal active layer shear wave velocities (Vs) between 240 and 370 m/s, and permafrost Vs between 450 and 1,700 m/s, typically showing a low‐high‐low velocity pattern. Additionally, we find an inverse relationship between in situ Vs and ground temperature measurements. The Vs profiles along with electrical resistivity profiles reveal cryostructures such as cryopeg and ice‐rich zones in the permafrost layer. The integrated results of MASW and ERT provide valuable information for characterizing permafrost heterogeneity and cryostructure. Corroboration of these geophysical observations with permafrost core samples’ stratigraphies and salinity measurements further validates these findings. This combination of geophysical and temperature sensing methods along with permafrost core sampling confirms a robust approach for assessing permafrost’s spatial variability in coastal environments. Our results also indicate that civil infrastructure systems such as gravel roads and pile foundations affect permafrost by thickening the active layer, lowering the Vs, and reducing heterogeneity. We show how the resulting Vs profiles can be used to estimate key parameters for designing buildings in permafrost regions and maintaining existing infrastructure in polar regions.

Spatial‐Temporal Differentiation of Supra‐ and Sub‐Permafrost Groundwater Contributions to River Runoff in the Eurasian Arctic and Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau Permafrost Regions

AbstractSupra‐ and sub‐permafrost groundwater are the two main components of groundwater in permafrost regions. However, due to the lack of groundwater observational data, the spatial‐temporal differentiation of these groundwater components in permafrost basins remains unclear. Based on flow data from 17 hydrological stations in five permafrost rivers within the Eurasian Arctic and Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau permafrost regions, this study tries to determine the proportion of supra‐ and sub‐permafrost groundwater through the corresponding relationship between baseflow separation and baseflow index. The results showed that the annual average contribution of supra‐ and sub‐permafrost groundwater in river runoff to total streamflow in the Yangtze River source basin was 36.81% and 14.56%, respectively. Correspondingly, the Yellow River source basin was 36.58% and 24.46%, the Ob River basin was 37.05% and 26.83%, the Yenisei River basin was 28.80% and 36.56%, and the Lena River basin was 39.13% and 9.54%. Over the past 50–80 years, the ratio of sub‐permafrost groundwater discharge to river runoff and the flux of sub‐permafrost groundwater have shown an increasing trend in all study basins, which was significantly affected by air temperature and permafrost area. Relative contribution of supra‐permafrost groundwater exhibits a significant positive correlation with precipitation and permafrost area. Air temperature has both positive and negative effects on supra‐permafrost groundwater discharge, leading to a rising or falling trend of supra‐permafrost groundwater discharge. In the future, it is necessary to further explore the complex effects of groundwater discharge variations on streamflow in permafrost regions under climate warming.

Revisiting permafrost carbon feedback and economic impacts

Quantifying permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) is a critical step in conveying the significance of permafrost carbon emissions to decision-makers and stakeholders and achieving sustainable development goals. Simply assuming a rapid reduction in permafrost area may be an overaggressive approach. This study revisited PCF by incorporating relatively clear permafrost physics into the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy. The results show that the total carbon released from permafrost regions in 2100 is 30.5 GtC, which is accompanied by an additional atmospheric warming of 0.038 °C, much lower than previous studies. This study provides a potential perspective to scrutinize the climate feedback and related economic impacts due to permafrost thawing. We may need to pay more attention to carbon processes during nongrowing seasons and sudden changes in permafrost.

Ground Heat Flux Reconstruction Using Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification Machinery and Surrogate Modeling

AbstractGround heat flux (G0) is a key component of the land‐surface energy balance of high‐latitude regions. Despite its crucial role in controlling permafrost degradation due to global warming, G0 is sparsely measured and not well represented in the outputs of global scale model simulation. In this study, an analytical heat transfer model is tested to reconstruct G0 across seasons using soil temperature series from field measurements, Global Climate Model, and climate reanalysis outputs. The probability density functions of ground heat flux and of model parameters are inferred using available G0 data (measured or modeled) for snow‐free period as a reference. When observed G0 is not available, a numerical model is applied using estimates of surface heat flux (dependent on parameters) as the top boundary condition. These estimates (and thus the corresponding parameters) are verified by comparing the distributions of simulated and measured soil temperature at several depths. Aided by state‐of‐the‐art uncertainty quantification methods, the developed G0 reconstruction approach provides novel means for assessing the probabilistic structure of the ground heat flux for regional permafrost change studies.

Mechanical behavior assessment of retaining wall structure due to frost heave of frozen ground

Frost heave action is a major issue in permafrost regions, leading to various geotechnical engineering problems. In this study, we assess the mechanical behavior of a concrete retaining wall subjected to frost heave under different ground conditions. The assessment utilizes ABAQUS integrated with several user subroutines. The numerical simulation model employs a thermo-mechanical coupled analysis with a porosity rate function, which enables to simulate time-dependent variations in porosity and frost heave of the backfill soil. After verification of the predictive reliability of the simulation model, the frost heave action in the soil and mechanical response of the retaining wall were evaluated regarding the initial groundwater level and presence of a drainage material on the backside of the retaining wall. According to the simulation results, as the initial groundwater level decreased in the backfill soil, the area susceptible to frost heave decreased. However, the von Mises stresses applied to the retaining wall increased. Under the same ground conditions, when the drainage material was installed on the backside of the retaining wall, the frost heave pressure acting on the wall significantly decreased, and less deformation and distortion of the retaining wall occurred.

Advances in retrogressive thaw slump research in permafrost regions

AbstractA retrogressive thaw slump (RTS) is a slope failure formed by slope thaw settlement and retrogressive slump following the thawing of ice‐rich permafrost or the melting of massive ice. Here, we review recent literature on RTSs, one of the main geomorphological landscapes developed in the process of permafrost degradation. The main topics are as follows: development and temporal evolution, mechanisms and processes, influencing factors, evaluation susceptibility and calculation, and assessment of engineering and environmental impacts. There has been a rapid increase in the number and distribution area of RTSs over permafrost in recent years. Climate warming events, extreme rainfall, forest fires, bank and coast erosion, and anthropogenic activity are the primary factors leading to RTSs in permafrost regions, disrupting the initial hydrothermal equilibrium of permafrost slopes. This causes a rise in ground temperature and the thaw of ice‐rich permafrost. Meltwater seeps down and collects on the ice surface, weakening freeze–thaw interface shear resistance and resulting in soil collapse. The development of RTSs may last several decades or longer. RTSs destabilize infrastructure, destroy vegetation, boost soil erosion and land desertification, alter the environment of nearby waters, and increase emissions of some major greenhouse gases. Numerous methods have been developed and adopted to explore RTSs, including geographic information systems (GIS) and equilibrium, numerical, and reliability analysis methods. However, research on formation mechanisms and processes, quantitative prediction, engineering and environmental influences, and mitigative measures of RTSs under a warming climate are still inadequate. Existing research methods, such as numerical simulations, remote sensing, airborne ground‐based geophysical surveys, investigations and mapping, and hydrothermal and deformation field monitoring, should be systematically integrated. Additionally, equipment for laboratory testing and numerical models for simulating RTSs may need to be timely introduced and better developed.

Local-scale heterogeneity of soil thermal dynamics and controlling factors in a discontinuous permafrost region

Abstract In permafrost regions, the strong spatial and temporal variability in soil temperature cannot be explained by the weather forcing only. Understanding the local heterogeneity of soil thermal dynamics and their controls is essential to understand how permafrost systems respond to climate change and to develop process-based models or remote sensing products for predicting soil temperature. In this study, we analyzed soil temperature dynamics and their controls in a discontinuous permafrost region on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. We acquired one-year temperature time series at multiple depths (at 5 or 10 cm intervals up to 85 cm depth) at 45 discrete locations across a 2.3 km2 watershed. We observed a larger spatial variability in winter temperatures than that in summer temperatures at all depths, with the former controlling most of the spatial variability in mean annual temperatures. We also observed a strong correlation between mean annual ground temperature at a depth of 85 cm and mean annual or winter season ground surface temperature across the 45 locations. We demonstrate that soils classified as cold, intermediate, or warm using hierarchical clustering of full-year temperature data closely match their co-located vegetation (graminoid tundra, dwarf shrub tundra, and tall shrub tundra, respectively). We show that the spatial heterogeneity in soil temperature is primarily driven by spatial heterogeneity in snow cover, which induces variable winter insulation and soil thermal diffusivity. These effects further extend to the subsequent summer by causing variable latent heat exchanges. Finally, we discuss the challenges of predicting soil temperatures from snow depth and vegetation height alone by considering the complexity observed in the field data and reproduced in a model sensitivity analysis.

Permafrost Carbon: Progress on Understanding Stocks and Fluxes Across Northern Terrestrial Ecosystems

AbstractSignificant progress in permafrost carbon science made over the past decades include the identification of vast permafrost carbon stocks, the development of new pan‐Arctic permafrost maps, an increase in terrestrial measurement sites for CO2 and methane fluxes, and important factors affecting carbon cycling, including vegetation changes, periods of soil freezing and thawing, wildfire, and other disturbance events. Process‐based modeling studies now include key elements of permafrost carbon cycling and advances in statistical modeling and inverse modeling enhance understanding of permafrost region C budgets. By combining existing data syntheses and model outputs, the permafrost region is likely a wetland methane source and small terrestrial ecosystem CO2 sink with lower net CO2 uptake toward higher latitudes, excluding wildfire emissions. For 2002–2014, the strongest CO2 sink was located in western Canada (median: −52 g C m−2 y−1) and smallest sinks in Alaska, Canadian tundra, and Siberian tundra (medians: −5 to −9 g C m−2 y−1). Eurasian regions had the largest median wetland methane fluxes (16–18 g CH4 m−2 y−1). Quantifying the regional scale carbon balance remains challenging because of high spatial and temporal variability and relatively low density of observations. More accurate permafrost region carbon fluxes require: (a) the development of better maps characterizing wetlands and dynamics of vegetation and disturbances, including abrupt permafrost thaw; (b) the establishment of new year‐round CO2 and methane flux sites in underrepresented areas; and (c) improved models that better represent important permafrost carbon cycle dynamics, including non‐growing season emissions and disturbance effects.

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of suprapermafrost groundwater dynamic processes in the permafrost region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Suprapermafrost groundwater fulfils an important role in the hydrological cycle of the permafrost region. Under the influence of the soil freeze–thaw process in the active layer, the dynamic process of suprapermafrost groundwater is too complex to be fully quantified, which has limited our understanding of the features of groundwater dynamic processes in permafrost regions. To bridge this gap, the dynamic characteristics of the suprapermafrost groundwater level were systematically observed, and pumping tests were performed under different topographic conditions (e.g., altitude, slope orientation, and distance from the river). The results showed that the differences in the heat distribution and recharge source of groundwater at the different altitudes and slope orientations determined the phase and threshold of the variation in the suprapermafrost groundwater movement state. There was a significant Boltzmann function relationship between the groundwater level and soil temperature. The groundwater level in the downslope during melting increased earlier and that during freezing declined later than that in the upslope part during the initial thawing cycle and the initial freezing cycle, respectively. The groundwater level on the shady slope decreased twice as fast as that on the sunny slope at the initial freezing stage. There was a favourable exponential relationship between the hydraulic conductivity (K) and soil temperature in the study area. On the sunny slope, K was higher than that on the shady slope, and K was higher in the area near the river than in the area far from the river. When the melting depth of the active layer reached 2/3 of the maximum depth, K reached its maximum value. The study results also revealed that when the soil temperature was reduced to 1–0 °C, a strong linear relationship occurred between K and soil temperature.

Numerical simulation of resistivity and saturation estimation of pore-type gas hydrate reservoirs in the permafrost region of the Qilian Mountains

Abstract The pore-type hydrate reservoirs in the permafrost region of the Qilian Mountains (PRQM) have complex characteristics, including low porosity, low permeability, high shale content, and conductive minerals. Currently, the research on the electrical properties of these reservoirs still needs to be sufficiently in depth, and there are limitations in well-logging evaluation methods. To fill in this gap, a conductivity model of pore-type gas hydrate reservoirs (GHRs) is established based on the pore-combination modeling theory to investigate the influencing factors of the resistivity characteristics of GHRs through numerical simulations. The comparison between the laboratory-measured resistivity of different hydrate saturations and the results of the calculated model shows good agreement, indicating the accuracy of the conductivity model in describing the electrical characteristics of GHRs in the PRQM. Compared to conductive minerals, the numerical simulation results indicate that the high shale content is the main reason for the decrease in resistivity of pore-type GHRs in the study area. The hydrate saturation evaluation of well DK-3 from 386.3 to 393.6 m depth shows that the hydrate saturation ranges from 5.1 to 66.4%, with an average value of 44.0%. The identified hydrate interval using this model is consistent with the actual hydrate interval encountered during the drilling. This study, as an innovation, can help clarify the conductive mechanism of pore-type GHRs in the PRQM and provide more accurate parameters for evaluating gas hydrate resources in the study area.

Study of hydrothermal processes in ice-layers subgrade under constant temperature and dynamic loading

The presence of ice-layers in the subgrade soils makes the hydrothermal state of road subgrade built in island permafrost regions more susceptible to external environmental influences. In order to deepen the study of the ice-layers subgrade, a hydrothermal study of subgrade under constant temperature and dynamic loading was carried out. It was found that dynamic loading can change the temperature, moisture and pore water pressure distribution. Under dynamic loading, the hydrothermal and pore water pressure state of the soil in the upper part of the ice layer changed significantly at the beginning of the test. The application of dynamic loads alters the spatial distribution of pore water pressure in the soil, resulting in pressure differences between different areas, which affects the migration of moisture and ultimately leads to the formation of areas with higher moisture content in the area below the load. However, the reduction in soil temperature will weaken the effect of the load, therefore, the temperature of the soil should be controlled for frozen subgrade with ice-layers to prevent the accumulation of moisture in the soil.

Mycorrhizal mediation of soil carbon in permafrost regions depends on soil nutrient stoichiometry and physical protection

Mycorrhizal associations are considered as one of the key drivers for soil carbon (C) accumulation and stability. However, how mycorrhizal associations influence soil organic C (SOC) and its fractions (i.e., particulate organic C [POC] and mineral-associated organic C [MAOC]) remain unclear. In this study, we examined effects of plant mycorrhizal associations with arbuscular mycorrhiza (AM), ectomycorrhiza (ECM), and their mixture (Mixed) on SOC and its fractions as well as soil stoichiometric ratios across 800-km transect in permafrost regions. Our results showed that soil with only ECM-associated trees had significantly higher SOC and POC compared to only AM-associated tree species, while soil in Mixed plots with both AM- and ECM- associated trees tend to be somewhat in the middle. Using structural equation models, we found that mycorrhizal association significantly influenced SOC and its fraction (i.e., POC, MAOC) indirectly through soil stoichiometric ratios (C:N, C:P, and N:P). These results suggest that selecting ECM tree species, characterized by a “slow cycling” nutrient uptake strategy, can effectively enhance accumulation of SOC and its fractions in permafrost forest ecosystems. Our findings provide novel insights for quantitatively assessing the influence of mycorrhiza-associated tree species on the management of soil C pool and biogeochemical cycling.

Ground subsidence and polygon development due to thermokarst in the Lena-Aldan interfluve, eastern Siberia, revealed by satellite remote sensing data

Thermokarst development is a topographic change in the landscape that is commonly associated with permafrost degradation in ice-rich permafrost regions. The Lena-Aldan interfluvial area in Central Yakutia in eastern Siberia has undergone extensive thermokarst development in the last three decades, particularly in the vicinity of settlements. Despite the negative effects of thermokarst development on the inhabitants of these settlements, no quantitative observation methods have been developed to investigate the surface displacement due to thermokarst development over entire towns. This study utilized interferometric synthetic aperture radar to reveal ground-surface displacement associated with thermokarst near the settlements of selected towns. The findings showed that significant subsidence was detected in disturbed areas (farming and abundant arable land) near the towns. The magnitude of subsidence in the Tyungyulyu and Mayya areas was less than that in Churapcha and Amga. Polygon density in a defined area in each town was examined using high-resolution optical images. The polygon density in Churapcha was considerably lower than that in Mayya, whereas polygonal texture in some areas in Tyungyulyu and Amga was unclear. Spatial frequency analysis using satellite optical images showed clear differences in averaged spectrum models between well-developed and less-developed polygons, which may reflect trough depths and density of vegetation between polygons. Satellite-based subsidence maps and statistics describing polygon development may be useful for evaluating both initial and subsequent stages of thermokarst development.

Response of Vegetation to Drought in the Source Region of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers Based on Causal Analysis

The vegetation and ecosystem in the source region of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River (SRYY) are fragile. Affected by climate change, extreme droughts are frequent and permafrost degradation is serious in this area. It is very important to quantify the drought–vegetation interaction in this area under the influence of climate–permafrost coupling. In this study, based on the saturated vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and soil moisture (SM) that characterize atmospheric and soil drought, as well as the Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) and solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) that characterize vegetation greenness and function, the evolution of regional vegetation productivity and drought were systematically identified. On this basis, the technical advantages of the causal discovery algorithm Peter–Clark Momentary Conditional Independence (PCMCI) were applied to distinguish the response of vegetation to VPD and SM. Furthermore, this study delves into the response mechanisms of NDVI and SIF to atmospheric and soil drought, considering different vegetation types and permafrost degradation areas. The findings indicated that low SM and high VPD were the limiting factors for vegetation growth. The positive and negative causal effects of VPD on NDVI accounted for 47.88% and 52.12% of the total area, respectively. Shrubs were the most sensitive to SM, and the response speed of grassland to SM was faster than that of forest land. The impact of SM on vegetation in the SRYY was stronger than that of VPD, and the effect in the frozen soil degradation area was more obvious. The average causal effects of NDVI and SIF on SM in the frozen soil degradation area were 0.21 and 0.41, respectively, which were twice as high as those in the whole area, and SM dominated NDVI (SIF) changes in 62.87% (76.60%) of the frozen soil degradation area. The research results can provide important scientific basis and theoretical support for the scientific assessment and adaptation of permafrost, vegetation, and climate change in the source area and provide reference for ecological protection in permafrost regions.

An improved change detection method for high-resolution soil moisture mapping in permafrost regions

ABSTRACT Soil moisture plays a crucial role in understanding the hydrological cycle and the ecological environment. This research presents an improved change detection method that leverages time series data from Sentinel-1 radar and Sentinel-2 optical sensors (2019–2021) to estimate surface soil moisture. The response of backscatter to soil moisture in bare soil was expressed in a logarithmic form, and the influence function of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) on the backscatter difference was established for various vegetation-covered surfaces. Therefore, the impact of vegetation on backscatter is effectively mitigated, and the resulting change in backscatter relative to bare soil conditions can be obtained. An empirical function is subsequently formulated to ascertain the reference values of soil moisture in each pixel. The retrieval of soil moisture is demonstrated in the Wudaoliang permafrost region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and validated against ground measurements. The retrieval results of the improved change detection method exhibit correlation coefficients ranging from 0.672 to 0.941, with root mean squared errors (RMSE) ranging from 0.031 m 3 / m 3 to 0.073 m 3 / m 3 . Compared to the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) 9-km product, our new method demonstrates higher correlation (0.898 vs. 0.867) and lower RMSE (0.037 m 3 / m 3 vs. 0.044 m 3 / m 3 ). The soil moisture retrieved from Sentinel shows a strong correlation with the SMAP 9-km soil moisture in the time series, thereby providing a better representation of the region’s soil moisture heterogeneity. Our method demonstrates the feasibility of combining Sentinel-1 and 2 for high-resolution (100 m) soil moisture mapping in permafrost regions.

Accelerating thermokarst lake changes on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

As significant evidence of ice-rich permafrost degradation due to climate warming, thermokarst lake was developing and undergoing substantial changes. Thermokarst lake was an essential ecosystem component, which significantly impacted the global carbon cycle, hydrology process and the stability of the Qinghai–Tibet Engineering Corridor. In this paper, based on Sentinel-2 (2021) and Landsat (1988–2020) images, thermokarst lakes within a 5000 m range along both sides of Qinghai–Tibet Highway were extracted to analyse the spatio-temporal variations. The results showed that the number and area of thermokarst lake in 2021 were 3965 and 4038.6 ha (1 ha = 10,000 m2\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$^{2}$$\\end{document}), with an average size of 1.0186 ha. Small thermokarst lakes (<\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$<\\,$$\\end{document}1 ha) accounted for 85.65% of the entire lake count, and large thermokarst lakes (>\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$>\\,$$\\end{document}10 ha) occupied for 44.92% of the whole lake area. In all sub-regions, the number of small lake far exceeds 75% of the total lake number in each sub-region. R1 sub-region (around Wudaoliang region) had the maximum number density of thermokarst lakes with 0.0071, and R6 sub-region (around Anduo region) had the minimum number density with 0.0032. Thermokarst lakes were mainly distributed within elevation range of 4300 m–5000 m a.s.l. (94.27% and 97.13% of the total number and size), on flat terrain with slopes less than 3∘\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$^\\circ$$\\end{document} (99.17% and 98.47% of the total number and surface) and in the north, south, and southeast aspects (51.98% and 50.00% of the total number and area). Thermokarst lakes were significantly developed in warm permafrost region with mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) > − 1.5 ∘\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$^\\circ$$\\end{document}C, accounting for 47.39% and 54.38% of the total count and coverage, respectively. From 1988 to 2020, in spite of shrinkage or even drain of small portion of thermokarst lake, there was a general expansion trend of thermokarst lake with increase in number of 195 (8.58%) and area of 1160.19 ha (41.36%), which decreased during 1988–1995 (− 702 each year and − 706.27 ha/yr) and then increased during 1995–2020 (184.96–702 each year and 360.82 ha/yr). This significant expansion was attributed to ground ice melting as rising air temperature at a rate of 0.03–0.04 ∘\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$^\\circ$$\\end{document}C/yr. Followed by the increasing precipitation (1.76–3.07 mm/yr) that accelerated the injection of water into lake.