Regional Trade Flows Research Articles

A New Approach to Measure Italian Regional Trade Flows with Administrative Micro Firm-Level Data

A New Approach to Measure Italian Regional Trade Flows with Administrative Micro Firm-Level Data

European multi regional input output data for 2008–2018

Regioindustry trade flow data are useful inputs for economists and policy makers for a range of planning and disaster-response applications. Within the European Union (EU) whose members enjoy free trade, small variations in these granular trade flows can often propagate to other member-countries far beyond the original trade-shock. In spite of their importance, this information is either outdated or non-existent in the EU as the official databases only provide data at the national-sectoral or regional-only (non-industry specific) level. To fill this gap, we construct Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) tables for 272 European NUTS-2 regions for the period 2008–2018, building on freight transport data as their main trade route across them. The database covers 10 sectors for industry, services and agriculture. We successfully validate our estimates through a direct comparison with a previous MRIO dataset for European regions (REGIO), a sub-sample of countries reporting regional trade flow data as the “ground truth” and a sensitivity analysis reporting relative standard errors well below the MRIO literature average.

Using the Past to Understand the Future of U.S. and Global Smoking Disparities: A Birth Cohort Perspective

Using the Past to Understand the Future of U.S. and Global Smoking Disparities: A Birth Cohort Perspective

Using the Web to Predict Regional Trade Flows: Data Extraction, Modeling, and Validation

Despite the importance of interregional trade for building effective regional economic policies, there are very few hard data to illustrate such interdependencies. We propose here a novel research framework to predict interregional trade flows by utilizing freely available Web data and machine learning algorithms. Specifically, we extract hyperlinks between archived Websites in the United Kingdom and we aggregate these data to create an interregional network of hyperlinks between geolocated and commercial Web pages over time. We also use existing interregional trade data to train our models using random forests and then make out-of-sample predictions of interregional trade flows using a rolling-forecasting framework. Our models illustrate great predictive capability with R 2 greater than 0.9. We are also able to disaggregate our predictions in terms of industrial sectors, but also at a subregional level, for which trade data are not available. In total, our models provide a proof of concept that the digital traces left behind by physical trade can help us capture such economic activities at a more granular level and, consequently, inform regional policies.

The Study of CARICOM CSME Trade Liberalization Agreement for Economic Growth

The objective of this research is to conduct an empirical analysis of the relationship between Economic Growth and Regional trading in the CARICOM region. In this research Economic growth is measured by annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and annual Gross National Income (GNI) which is employed as the dependent variable. The economic index variables also applied in this study are the unemployment rate, import, export, total regional trade value, population, and classification. The study's findings indicated a positive relationship between Total Regional Trade value and GDP in the Caribbean region. The study also indicated a positive relationship between Regional Trade Flow and GNI. Additionally, there was a positive relationship between imports and the unemployment rate. However, exports had no impact on the unemployment rate. Also, a country’s categorization had no impact on total trade value. Throughout the investigation, the implications of the discoveries are thoroughly discussed.

The Causal Effect of International Trade on Poverty in West Africa

The study examined the relationship between trade and migration and poverty and income inequality in the West African sub-region. The study included all the 16 countries within the West African bloc. The study adopted approaches such as pooled OLS, Fixed Effect models, PPML, two-stage least square instrumental variable estimator and PPML-2SLS. The study explored the correlation between international trade and poverty and also evaluated the effect of international trade on poverty and inequality in West Africa. The result indicated that there was negative correlation between international trade and poverty. In addition, it was observed regional trade flows reduce headcount poverty in the sub-region. The recommends that there should be liberalization in the subregion as that results in reduction in poverty. It will be worth exploring the link between trade and illegal migration on macroeconomic indicators of countries in the sub-region Keywords : Povert, Income Inequality, International trade, Migration, Dummy Variable DOI: 10.7176/JESD/13-8-10 Publication date: April 30 th 2022

Trade Flows within the United States Nursery Industry in 2018

Abstract This study is a continuation of the series of summaries by the Green Industry Research Consortium examining the regional trade flows in the U.S. nursery industry. This detailed analysis of green industry regional trade flows in eight U.S. regions compares 2018 data with those of the 2008 and 2013 national survey estimates of origin and destination (OD) information to sales data. Specifically, we discuss: 1) regional annual sales reported by the green industry firms in 2018, 2) the percentage distribution of OD trade flows by regions and states, 3) differences in the percentage distribution of OD trade flows during the 5-year period by region (2013 to 2018), and 4) differences in the percentage distribution of OD trade flows during the 10-year period by region (2008 to 2018) for both intra-state (within home state) and inter-regional (between states) trade flows. The OD trade flow results were compared with those of 2008 and 2013. The results show considerable changes in intra-state and inter-regional trade flows from 2013 to 2018. From 2008 to 2018, only the Southcentral region increased in the proportion of sales within the region. Implications for relevant green industry stakeholders are discussed.

Quality of government and regional trade: evidence from European Union regions

ABSTRACT Using a novel database of regional trade flows between 267 European regions for 2013, this paper examines how government quality affects trade between European Union (EU) regions. The results of a structural gravity cross-sectional analysis of trade show that trade across EU regions is highly influenced by differences in regional government quality. This influence varies by both sector of economic activity and the level of economic development of the region. The results indicate that if the less developed regions of the EU want to engage in greater interregional trade, improving their institutional quality is a must.

Oman’s Trade Potentials with Indian Ocean Rim Countries

Abstract Oman’s regional trade flow, especially with the Indian Ocean Rim countries, is examined within a gravity model framework. The analysis is based on the generalised method of moments (GMM) estimation procedure. The findings show that Oman’s exports are strongly determined by the Indian Ocean Rim countries’ populations, gross domestic product, infrastructure, Oman’s trade policy and a common border and language. Distance is found to induce significant friction for Oman’s imports. We conclude that the Indian Ocean Rim countries are sources of active markets and provide opportunities for greater trade integration. In light of the dramatic decline in world oil prices in recent years, Oman also needs to reduce its reliance on oil earnings and intervene more aggressively in its domestic economy by diversifying its non-oil sector and concentrate more on non-oil led exports.

Regional Economic Cooperation in the Western Balkans: The Role of Stabilization and Association Agreements, Bilateral Investment Treaties and Free Trade Agreements in Regional Investment and Trade Flows

ABSTRACT This study explores the role of stabilization and association agreements (SAAs), bilateral investment treaties (BITs) and free trade agreements (FTAs) in the Western Balkans and their impact on the region’s inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and exports, with primary interest in the effects on intra-regional FDI and trade. Results show that BITs were not related to intra-regional FDI, nor to the FDI from other countries. The Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) contributed to increased intra-regional trade. Finally, the SAAs turn out to be highly significant for FDI from the EU to signee countries, and their exports to the EU.

Impediments to Intra-regional Trade in South Asia: A Stakeholder Perspective

South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation (SAARC) was founded to achieve better standards of living through greater development in South Asia. SAARC has moved nearer in even though many of its member countries failed to realize the benefit of developing intra-regional trade. Despite the formation of a South Asian Free Trading Area (SAFTA) intra-regional trade performance is not satisfactory relative to South Asia’s total trade flow. The main objective of this study is to identify the impediments to boost the intra- to a status of a borderless market regional trade flow of South Asian Region. The study selected the qualitative research methodology where twenty in-depth face to face interviews were carried out with both local as well as regional stakeholders who engage in South Asian regional trade activities. Template analysis was used as the method of data analysis. Secondary data sources used to triangulate the interview data. The research identified four (4) major impediments as the Regional market structure, Regional social structure, Political and economic structure, and Tariff structure. Implications and recommendation developed as it was identified the attractiveness of niche markets, the suitability of localizing marketing strategies, the advantage of entering into strategic alliances between regional and outside companies, and suitability of developing a regional supply chain network and a regional brand name.

The macroeconomic impact of NAFTA termination

AbstractUS President Trump has threatened to leave the North American Free Trade Agreement. How much would each member country gain or lose if this threat were carried out? Would trade imbalances within the region diminish? What would the transition to new production and consumption patterns look like? I provide quantitative answers to these questions using a dynamic general equilibrium model with a multi‐sector input–output production structure, heterogeneous firms that make forward‐looking export participation decisions, and adjustment frictions in trade and factor markets. Regional trade flows would fall dramatically, and while the US trade deficit with Canada would decline, the deficit with Mexico would grow. Welfare would fall by 0.04%, 0.12%, and 0.2% in the United States, Canada, and Mexico, respectively, and transition dynamics would significantly affect welfare in both the short run and the long run.

Price dispersion and the border effect

Cross-country price differences could reflect regional market segmentation within countries or national segmentation at the border. In a search-based model of price setting, identifying national versus regional segmentation requires data on regional trade flows. A calibration to U.S. and Canadian data implies predominantly regional frictions: U.S. producers are three times more likely to sell in their home region than another U.S. region and Canadian producers are seven times more likely to sell in their home region than another Canadian region. Frictions vis-a-vis foreign regions are only slightly higher. Models that ignore regional segmentation can misstate the severity of frictions at the border.

Equilibrium Price Dispersion and the Border Effect

We find that observed cross-country price differences primarily reflect regional market segmentation occurring within countries. Using a model of price-setting subject to costly search, we show that identification of national versus regional segmentation requires augmenting price data with regional trade flow data. Calibrating the model to data from U.S. and Canadian regions, we estimate substantial regional trade frictions: U.S. producers are three times less likely to sell to retailers in the away region of the United States than in their own region, and only slightly less likely to sell to a region in Canada, controlling for market size differences. Canadian producers have an even stronger home bias: they are 7 times more likely to sell in their own region than in the away region in Canada, and 11 times more likely to sell in their own region than in a U.S. region. Models that do not explicitly account for regional home bias can misstate the severity of segmentation at the national border.

Appropriate assumption on cross-hauling national input–output table regionalization

ABSTRACTInput–output tables are useful for regional economic analyses. Although scholars often regionalize national input–output tables, cost-related issues make surveying regional trade flow difficult; hence, non-survey approaches are implemented instead. While location quotient (LQ) approaches have been used widely, they ignore cross-hauling in interregional trade. Therefore, alternative non-survey approaches with different assumptions on cross-hauling are used, such as cross-hauling depends on regional size and cross-hauling is proportional to its potential determined by output or demand. This study concludes that the most appropriate assumption, as per the relative performance of non-survey approaches, is that cross-hauling is in proportion to trade volume.

Enhancing productive capabilities through intra-regional trade and cross-border investments in Southern Africa

ABSTRACTRegional integration is an important factor for enabling knowledge flows between economies and enhancing the capacity of firms within the integrated block to benefit from local knowledge spillovers. This study analyses data on economic interactions between Botswana and its technologically more advanced southern neighbour, South Africa, to examine the extent to which knowledge flows facilitated by geographical proximity translate into fostering technological learning and productivity of manufacturing firms. Industry- and firm-level data on bilateral capital goods trade and investments over the period 1991–2013 are used to assess the technological learning of the manufacturing sector in Botswana. This study also applies the Hunt, J, & Tybout, J (1999. Does Promoting High-Tech Products Spur Development? FEEM Working Paper REG 42. Milan: Fondazione Eni EnricoMattei) technological sophistication framework to analyse the role played by regional trade and investment flows between the economies of South Africa and Botswana in the skills intensification of manufacturing firms. Skills intensity decomposition reveals that Botswana’s manufacturing technical intensity has been positively influenced by the extent of capital goods trade and investment linkages with South African economy.

Economic implications of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for\xa0Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) on Pakistan: a CGE approach

The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is one of the recently negotiated multilateral free trade agreements which aims to establish a free trade agreement between 11 economies (after US exit) on both sides of the Pacific. The formation and implementation of this proposed partnership is a valid threat for other economies, particularly for Pakistan. Pakistan will likely to suffer from this agreement due to trade diversion of textile and apparels in favor of the CPTPP members. The reason can be extended in terms of the likely ‘yarn forward rule,’ according to which, it is obligatory for the CPTPP member economies to import all the components of manufactured products from other CPTPP member economies. So, the implementation of the CPTPP will have an impact on global supply chain of textile and apparels. With this backdrop, this study evaluates the likely impacts of the CPTPP on the regional trade flows and other macroeconomic aggregates of Pakistan using a global computable general equilibrium model. The economy-wide results show the proposed CPTPP will have a negative impact on Pakistan’s real GDP, sectoral exports and imports and at household level. However, if Pakistan joins CPTPP, there is an overall positive impact on Pakistan’s economy. Thus, keeping in view Pakistan’s ideal geographical and strategic location and its potential to be a transit economy with a junction of south Asia, west Asia and central Asia, this study suggests that Pakistan’s proposed entry to CPTPP will not only yield a wide gain to the region but will reduce the gap between poor and rich in Pakistan and hence will have a positive impact on overall income inequality in Pakistan.

Disentangling regional trade agreements, trade flows and tobacco affordability in sub-Saharan Africa

BackgroundIn principle, trade and investment agreements are meant to boost economic growth. However, the removal of trade barriers and the provision of investment incentives to attract foreign direct investments may facilitate increased trade in and/or more efficient production of commodities considered harmful to health such as tobacco. We analyze existing evidence on trade and investment liberalization and its relationship to tobacco trade in Sub-Saharan African countries.MethodsWe compare tobacco trading patterns to foreign direct investments made by tobacco companies. We estimate and compare changes in the Konjunkturforschungsstelle (KOF) Economic Globalization measure, relative price measure and cigarette prices.ResultsPreferential regional trade agreements appear to have encouraged the consolidation of cigarette production, which has shaped trading patterns of tobacco leaf. Since 2002, British American Tobacco has invested in tobacco manufacturing facilities in Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa strategically located to serve different regions in Africa. Following this, British America Tobacco closed factories in Ghana, Rwanda, Uganda, Mauritius and Angola. At the same time, Malawi and Tanzania exported a large percentage of tobacco leaf to European countries. After 2010, there was an increase in tobacco exports from Malawi and Zambia to China, which may be a result of preferential trade agreements the EU and China have with these countries. Economic liberalization has been accompanied by greater cigarette affordability for the countries included in our analysis. However, only excise taxes and income have an effect on cigarette prices within the region.ConclusionsThese results suggest that the changing economic structures of international trade and investment are likely heightening the efficiency and effectiveness of the tobacco industry. As tobacco control advocates consider supply-side tobacco control interventions, they must consider carefully the effects of these economic agreements and whether there are ways to mitigate them.

Do operations in SEZs improve a firm’s productivity? Evidence from Poland

Special economic zones (SEZs) play a significant role in global, national and regional trade flows. Given the insufficient number of empirical contributions regarding firm-level consequences of operation in SEZs, an analysis in which implications for firms’ standings is undertaken. With the use of different estimation approaches, applied to a unique dataset comprising 155 SEZs firms and 155 non-SEZs firms (matched sample) obtained from various sources, the author investigates if SEZs firms obtain a competitive advantage through higher productivity compared to non-SEZs firms. The results prove that SEZ firms differ in this regard. However, the sign of its contribution is conditioned by the type of productivity analysed. Keywords: Special economic zones; SEZ; polish economy; productivity differentials; firm heterogeneity.

MODELLING THE ECONOMIC SECURITY OF REGIONAL EXTERNAL TRADE FLOWS

Subject of research: assessment and management of economic security of regional foreign trade flows of regions of Ukraine. Methodology: during the research, statistical analysis and analytical analysis (in the study of the main aspects of the formation of foreign trade flows of the region) are used. Mathematical modelling in economics (when creating a model of the two-dimensional normal distribution of regional foreign trade streams) and methods of analysis for risk assessment, conditioned by the formalization of the uncertainty of the operation of regional foreign trade operations are also used. The purpose of scientific research: mathematical modelling in economics in the management of economic security of export-import flows of regions of Ukraine; analysis of the structure of regional foreign trade flows in Ukraine and their respective risks; creation of the field of economic security of foreign trade flows of the region. The conclusion of the research: the study of limits and quantitative analysis of the risk of regional foreign trade flows in some regions of Ukraine is reduced to the creation of the area of crossing the main splicing ellipses of two-dimensional normal laws of export-import flows of these regions. After that, it will be possible to make a comparative assessment of the competitiveness and economic security of the regions. The purpose of the article is to develop an economic-mathematical model of quantitative risk analysis and to find appropriate boundaries of foreign trade flows of the region, which allows setting the thresholds of regional exportimport operations for optimal management of the process of foreign trade flows of the region. The foreign trade flows of Ivano-Frankivsk, Mykolaiv, and Kherson regions of Ukraine based on a two-dimensional normal distribution are modelled. Areas of threshold values of indicators of foreign trade flows of regions from the point of view of economic risk are defined, which, in contrast to existing one-dimensional approaches, takes into account elements of the interconnection of foreign trade flows of the region. The methodical conditions for constructing split ellipses of foreign trade flows of the region for comparative estimation of the risk of competitiveness and economic security of the regions are developed. This will make possible to conduct a systematic analysis of the region’s economic development and to take measures both at the local level and at the state level in order to neutralize a number of threats to its economic security.