Regional Rivals Research Articles

Arab Countries’ Interest in Integration in Eurasia: Tactics or Strategy?

In the situation of transition from a unipolar to a multipolar world, the tasks of developing a dialogue with the Arab world are set out in the Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation for 2023. In contrast to the “senior-junior” concept developed by the West, in which the allegedly “natural” leading role is unfairly assigned to Western powers and which causes growing resistance from the states of the Global South, Russia proposes that its Arab partners form relations based on a fair consideration of each other’s interests. The Arab ruling circles, experts, and the “Arab street” increasingly perceive Russia as a statecivilization that is not only located in Eurasia, but is also a driving force for the integration of the Non-West. Of particular interest is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as a platform for generating ideas and coordinating between the emerging centers of power represented by India, China, and Russia, especially after Iran, a regional rival of Saudi Arabia, became a member of the SCO in 2023. Is the Arab interest in the Eurasian NonWest strategic or tactical, being in the second case aimed solely at exerting pressure on the West to obtain maximum concessions? This is a difficult, but key question that requires an answer from experts, which explains the relevance of this article. In his study, the author uses situational analysis tools, including content analysis methods, force field analysis and data visualization. The author concludes that the interest of Arab countries in integration in Eurasia, including cooperation with Russia, is predominantly strategic.

Application of Meta-SWOT method for tourism development planning of Farsi Island of the Persian Gulf Region

Purpose: Tourism is a pivotal force in contemporary economies, shaping macroeconomic facets, such as national income, financial robustness, and employment opportunities. In an era marked by globalization, nations and urban centers aspire to elevate their competitive stance and augment community well-being through strategic blueprints for the tourism sector. Research Methodology: This research focuses on the evaluation of Persian Gulf tourism's standing vis-à-vis regional rivals while identifying the tourism assets and competencies of Farsi Island and scrutinizing their Value, Rareness, Imitability, and Organization (VRIO) attributes. The meta-SWOT strategic planning methodology is a paramount tool in this context. Results: The research unfolds in two phases: documentary and bibliographical scrutiny, and comprehensive surveys canvassing insights from ten tourism authorities judiciously chosen through purposive selection. The results shed light on the preeminent sway of macro-level factors, including national macro-management, governmental foreign policy, and international sanctions, as potent determinants of the tourism landscape of Farsi Island. Limitations: This study required long-term secondary analysis of data from Persian Gulf countries. However, these data have only recently been collected in a few countries; therefore, this study is based on primary data collection. Contributions: Concurrently, factors such as inadequate budget allocation and marginalization of the tourism sector within the country play pivotal roles in molding the Persian Gulf region's tourism trajectory.

Application of Meta-SWOT method for tourism development planning of Farsi Island of the Persian Gulf Region

Purpose: Tourism is a pivotal force in contemporary economies, shaping macroeconomic facets, such as national income, financial robustness, and employment opportunities. In an era marked by globalization, nations and urban centers aspire to elevate their competitive stance and augment community well-being through strategic blueprints for the tourism sector. Research Methodology: This research focuses on the evaluation of Persian Gulf tourism's standing vis-à-vis regional rivals while identifying the tourism assets and competencies of Farsi Island and scrutinizing their Value, Rareness, Imitability, and Organization (VRIO) attributes. The meta-SWOT strategic planning methodology is a paramount tool in this context. Results: The research unfolds in two phases: documentary and bibliographical scrutiny, and comprehensive surveys canvassing insights from ten tourism authorities judiciously chosen through purposive selection. The results shed light on the preeminent sway of macro-level factors, including national macro-management, governmental foreign policy, and international sanctions, as potent determinants of the tourism landscape of Farsi Island. Limitations: This study required long-term secondary analysis of data from Persian Gulf countries. However, these data have only recently been collected in a few countries; therefore, this study is based on primary data collection. Contributions: Concurrently, factors such as inadequate budget allocation and marginalization of the tourism sector within the country play pivotal roles in molding the Persian Gulf region's tourism trajectory.

Application of Meta-SWOT method for tourism development planning of Farsi Island of the Persian Gulf Region

Purpose: Tourism is a pivotal force in contemporary economies, shaping macroeconomic facets, such as national income, financial robustness, and employment opportunities. In an era marked by globalization, nations and urban centers aspire to elevate their competitive stance and augment community well-being through strategic blueprints for the tourism sector. Research Methodology: This research focuses on the evaluation of Persian Gulf tourism's standing vis-à-vis regional rivals while identifying the tourism assets and competencies of Farsi Island and scrutinizing their Value, Rareness, Imitability, and Organization (VRIO) attributes. The meta-SWOT strategic planning methodology is a paramount tool in this context. Results: The research unfolds in two phases: documentary and bibliographical scrutiny, and comprehensive surveys canvassing insights from ten tourism authorities judiciously chosen through purposive selection. The results shed light on the preeminent sway of macro-level factors, including national macro-management, governmental foreign policy, and international sanctions, as potent determinants of the tourism landscape of Farsi Island. Limitations: This study required long-term secondary analysis of data from Persian Gulf countries. However, these data have only recently been collected in a few countries; therefore, this study is based on primary data collection. Contributions: Concurrently, factors such as inadequate budget allocation and marginalization of the tourism sector within the country play pivotal roles in molding the Persian Gulf region's tourism trajectory.

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND ARMS CONTROL

The emergence of artificial intelligence has brought new challenges and opportunities to the global arms control regime. Integration of AI into military systems can complicate states’ security matrix, due to its speed and accuracy, with additional problems of distinguishability, integration, and accountability. AI can be a useful tool to enhance transparency in verification measures for an effective arms control treaty. Arms control for the regulation or limiting use in military systems is as important as the use of AI for improving the arms control regime. The integration of AI in arms control is not without its pitfalls; it offers several new opportunities. Its use could help address some of the anxieties that prevent states from willingly engaging in an arms control agreements. These developments are important because of the shortcomings in global arms control treaties, and regional rivals like India and Pakistan. AI intergration could incentive the South Asian nuclear neighbours to maintain strategic stability.

Regional Rivals, Pacific Partners

This article examines how urban rivalries in Japan’s capital region shaped public debates in 1930s Yokohama over its place in the Pacific and the wider world. Faced with a collapsing international system, Yokohama’s city leaders contended with neighboring co-nationals Tokyo and Kawasaki as both threats to and potential partners in their city’s future as an industrial and commercial hub at the vanguard of a coming “Age of the Pacific.” While invocations of “the nation” and Japan’s emergent role in the Pacific often colored these debates, local boosters advocated less for the “national weal” and more for what they saw as Yokohama’s “rightful” role at the forefront of Japan’s international trade and transport.

Engagement of European Countries in the Implementation of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy (Part 2)

Globalization has contributed to the development of economic relations between Europe and the Indo-Pacific. However, after 2011 they were influenced by the American “pivot to Asia” and the shift of US attention from countering international terrorism to rivalry with the “revisionist” powers — Russia and China. In 2019, with the adoption of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy, China became their main regional rival. The rivalry with him provided for the Americans to unite their Asian allies in a network of managed formal alliances, as well as to connect Great Britain and France to solving strategic tasks. On February 11, 2022, a new Indo-Pacific strategy of the United States appeared. This document emphasized the strategic value and increasing role of Great Britain, France, the EU and NATO in Indo-Pacific and set the task of building bridges between the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic regions. The main role in its solution was assigned to AUKUS, a trilateral military alliance of the United States, Great Britain and Australia, created on September 15, 2021. At about the same time, France, Germany, the Netherlands and the European Union approved their own strategies in Indo-Pacific. They had in common an unwillingness to see China as the main opponent in the context of the US-Chinese rivalry. At the same time, the documents did not indicate that Europe was equidistant from global rivals. On the one hand, being part of the collective West, the EU demonstrated its support to America, on the other, being the most important economic partner of the Celestial Empire, it refused to see it as an existential threat to its security. Against this background, a similar British document published in March 2021 stood out, characterized by a hostile attitude towards China. However, significant differences in the strategies of European countries were offset by their membership in NATO. At the Alliance summit in Madrid in June 2022 the Europeans, together with other allies, proclaimed a strategic course for “systemic rivalry” with the PRC in the context of the interconnection of the security of the Euro-Atlantic and the development of the situation in the Indo-Pacific. With the signing of the NATOEU joint declaration in Brussels on January 10, 2023, there was a further rapprochement of the two Western structures on an anti-Chinese basis, as well as the complete subordination of Europe to the interests of American global policy.

NUCLEARIZATION OF THE INDIAN OCEAN BY THE SOUTH ASIAN RIVALS

Indian Ocean is the third largest ocean in the world, covering 20% of the Earth’s surface water, it provides ample opportunities for cooperation and contention. Where the Indian Ocean is desirous because of its location, regional climate, hydrology, marine life, sea lines of communications, chokepoints, major harbors, ports and blue economy potential, it is also quite dreaded as in addition to washing up on shores of two South Asian nuclear powers (India and Pakistan), it has also seduced powers like United States and China to dock in the IOR. The former combo, in its quest to achieve defense invincibility, has embarked on Indian Ocean nuclearization rampage while also being facilitated by the latter combo compelled by their own vested interests. This research is modelled to be descriptive in its design and qualitative in its nature. The data gathered to carry out this study has been collected through secondary sources including different articles, journals and websites etc. The study mainly focuses on the contributions and interests of the superpowers and regional powers in the Indian Ocean and points out that for a stable, secure and harmonious environment in the Indian Ocean, and concludes that to keep the nuclear frenzy of South Asian and regional rivals in check, the extra regional powers must rise to the occasion and refrain from playing favourites.

Engagement of European Countries in the Implementation of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy (Part 1)

Globalization has contributed to the development of economic relations between Europe and the Indo-Pacific. However, after 2011 they were influenced by the American “pivot to Asia” and the shift of US attention from countering international terrorism to rivalry with the “revisionist” powers — Russia and China. In 2019, with the adoption of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy, China became their main regional rival. The rivalry with him provided for the Americans to unite their Asian allies in a network of managed formal alliances, as well as to connect Great Britain and France to solving strategic tasks. On February 11, 2022, a new Indo-Pacific strategy of the United States appeared. This document emphasized the strategic value and increasing role of Great Britain, France, the EU and NATO in Indo-Pacific and set the task of building bridges between the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic regions. The main role in its solution was assigned to AUKUS, a trilateral military alliance of the United States, Great Britain and Australia, created on September 15, 2021. At about the same time, France, Germany, the Netherlands and the European Union approved their own strategies in Indo-Pacific. They had in common an unwillingness to see China as the main opponent in the context of the US-Chinese rivalry. At the same time, the documents did not indicate that Europe was equidistant from global rivals. On the one hand, being part of the collective West, the EU demonstrated its support to America, on the other, being the most important economic partner of the Celestial Empire, it refused to see it as an existential threat to its security. Against this background, a similar British document published in March 2021 stood out, characterized by a hostile attitude towards China. However, significant differences in the strategies of European countries were offset by their membership in NATO. At the Alliance summit in Madrid in June 2022 the Europeans, together with other allies, proclaimed a strategic course for “systemic rivalry” with the PRC in the context of the interconnection of the security of the Euro-Atlantic and the development of the situation in the Indo-Pacific. With the signing of the NATO-EU joint declaration in Brussels on January 10, 2023, there was a further rapprochement of the two Western structures on an anti-Chinese basis, as well as the complete subordination of Europe to the interests of American global policy.

The Gaza War and the Region

Hamas’s 7 October 2023 attack and the subsequent war in Gaza has forced the Palestinian question back to the top of the Middle Eastern agenda after years of neglect. The crisis has also confirmed Hamas’s identity as an agent of resistance rather than governance and shattered Israel’s perceptions of its own power, the competence of its security services and political leadership, and the manageability of its immediate neighbourhood. Israeli forces may well destroy Hamas’s advanced military capabilities and decapitate its Gaza-based command, but they are unlikely to obliterate Hamas as a social, political and ideological actor, and a determined insurgency. In Arab forums, the Israeli–Palestinian conflict will probably inhibit normalisation with Israel and overshadow other conflicts. Iran does not have an immediate interest in expanding the war and has other options through partners for signalling support for Hamas. The war broadly benefits Tehran by affirming its forward-defence strategy, re-energising its axis of resistance and shaking its regional rivals.

Battle for the European Union in the periphery: contestation dynamics and domestic debates

ABSTRACT Connected by a shared endeavour to enhance understanding of the forces that shape contestation toward the EU in its peripheries and unprohibited in approach, this special section explores the concepts of contestation and periphery. Using various methodological approaches, the section showcases a series of overlapping and cross-cutting themes which contextually strengthen the phenomenon and experiences of contestation in peripheral states. In aggregating these themes, the authors attribute contestation to the growing ‘absence’ of the EU’s normative interest in peripheral states and the growing transactional/functional features that define peripheral state relationships with the EU. The authors draw attention to the opportunities for regional rivals, such as Russia and China to capitalize on the absence of the EU’s transformative power in peripheral states, the role of domestic forces in utilizing contestation as a means to preserve regime type and satisfy sovereignty concerns, and the incidences of peripheral states in shaping/reshaping their foreign policy positions in response to the Russia-Ukraine War. Taken together, our special section shows that contestation in Europe’s periphery is less an overt normative resistance against the EU and more an absence of EU normative efforts in peripheral states and the increasingly functional features which define peripheral states’ relationships with the EU.

Humanitarian Diplomacy as a Tool for India's Middle East Strategy

India is among the first responders to Türkiye’s call for international help following the devastating earthquakes which occurred on February 6, 2023. India’s immediate and large-scale relief effort operation has been deliberately named as Operation Dost, which is a common word between Turkish and Hindi, meaning ‘friend.’ This relief operation is the latest example of India’s rising humanitarian aid to the Middle East region. India’s relief efforts in the Middle East include providing scholarships, healthcare services, and shelter for those affected by civil wars, conflicts, and disasters. Although one cannot rule out the moral side of this humanitarian effort, India’s increasing attention in responding humanitarian crises in the region also has strategic dimension. There is an undeniable connection between a state’s foreign interests and its engagement in humanitarian action. Humanitarian aid promotes diplomatic relations with recipient countries, enhancing donor country’s reputation. The Middle East region is a critical energy and remittances source for India. India aims to protect its interests in the Middle East especially after its regional rival the People’s Republic of China (PRC) also increases its presence. Humanitarian aid is an appropriate tool for India to boost its visibility among the countries and the peoples of the Middle East. In long-term, successful humanitarian aid builds up diplomatic capital, strengthening India’s position in the region.

A “regional halo effect”: Media use and evaluations of America's strategic relationships with five Middle East countries

Countries in the Middle East go to considerable lengths using mass media to try to maintain or improve their images among the U.S. public. The same countries often engage in negative media campaigns in the U.S. against each other, attempting to bring down public support for regional rivals. This study examined diplomatic evaluations of five Middle East countries—rating Saudi Arabia, Israel, Palestine, Qatar, and UAE as an ally, neutral, or enemy of the U.S.—among a large, representative sample of U.S. adults ( N = 2059), and assessed measures of news use, social media use, political partisanship, and demographic variables as predictors of the evaluations. News use and other media use predicted little variance in diplomatic ratings; the strongest predictors of positive ratings of a given country were having rated one or more of the other countries positively also—what we term a “regional halo effect.” A key implication of this study is that attempting to harm public perceptions of a regional rival may be self-defeating for a given country, as negative attitudes toward the former country are associated with poor attitudes toward the latter.

Evaluating Pakistani Media’s Perception of Chinese Military Development: A Content Analysis of Pakistani Newspaper

China’s military modernization has led to many concerns among regional and international stakeholders. Many countries see Beijing’s intentions to become a military superpower as threatening regional peace and stability. On the other hand, being China’s strategic ally, Pakistan sees its military expansion as a positive change to back its drive to become a regional military power. This research aims to analyze the perception of Pakistani media about the Chinese military by conducting an extensive content analysis of the Pakistani newspaper ‘Pakistan Today. The data helped highlight the Pakistani media’s attitude toward China’s military ambitions. The analysis suggests that Pakistani newspaper projects China’s military might as the balance of power, particularly against its regional rival, i.e. India. The research elucidates that while most Western media coverage portrays Chinesemilitary activities as a challenge to the regional status quo, Pakistani media exhibits it as important for peace and stability in the region.

Iran, China and the Persian Gulf: An unfolding engagement

AbstractSince the ancient Persian empires, Iran has been the key local actor in the Persian Gulf. In the modern era in particular, it has been engaged in periodic struggles for power with the great powers in this region. Therefore, it would be crucial to ask how Iran would evaluate China's increasing engagement in the Persian Gulf, especially its close ties with Iran's archrivals. As history suggests, Iran's relations with great powers in the Persian Gulf, coupled with the dynamics of transition in the international system, may be the most critical factors shaping the Sino–Iranian relations in the Persian Gulf. These two factors shape the emerging Iranian perception of China's presence in the region in three areas. Geostrategically, Iran views China's increasing presence in the Persian Gulf as a new window of opportunity to alleviate its security dilemma. Although Iranian leaders have concerns about military cooperation between China and Saudi Arabia, they trust that China could be a new balancing force against the United States. In the geoeconomic sphere, Iran seeks cooperation with China in two areas to overcome its regional rivals, that is, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates: it wants to become China's number one trading partner in the region and participate as much as possible in China's energy security. Finally, in terms of connectivity and transit, Iranian leaders hope to define their zones of influence in Iraq and Syria as the main route for the Belt and Road Initiative.

Prospects оf сooperation between Ukraine аnd Iran

Due to a combination of favorable factors, the Islamic Republic of Iran is one of the leading regional states in the Middle East and one of the prominent geopolitical actors on the world stage. Successful location at the crossroads of the East-West and North-South international routes, the presence of significant resource and geopolitical potential allow Iran to form and adhere to its own foreign policy. The state's promotion of its own interests in the Middle East, activities in other parts of the world, development of nuclear, space and missile programs in combination with opposition to the above by Western countries and regional rivals determines Iran's special role in the international arena. The determining factor is that the country has been subject to various types and severity of international sanctions for the past 40 years, and political, ideological and ethno-religious factors limit the traditional possibilities of the country's foreign policy, which is offset by Iran's flexibility. The study focuses on the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The aim of the work is to investigate a set of factors and actions that allow to designate the Islamic Republic of Iran not only as a key regional player in the Middle East, but also as an important geopolitical actor on the world stage. To achieve this goal, the following tasks were set and solved, namely, the current geopolitical problems of Iran were analyzed and further prospects for cooperation between Ukraine and Iran were identified. Methods of analysis and synthesis were used during the study. The special relevance of the study of IRI's position in the international arena is due to the insufficient disclosure of this issue in domestic publications of the expert community. While the example of Iran is interesting in terms of ways and tools to form regional leadership, as well as promoting its own positions around the world in the face of constraints on the part of the world community.

The 2021-2022 “De-Escalation Moment” in the Middle East: A Net Assessment

Starting the end of 2020, the Middle East has witnessed an unprecedented de-escalation among its key regional rivals. Several major players, including Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, Israel, the UAE, and Qatar, have been reaching out to one another to reconcile and normalize relations, thus signaling a regional reset. As a result, a rare positive, constructive, and responsible trend of diplomatic engagement has been emerging, prompting the question of whether these reconciliatory and normalization processes will be a temporary situation or a new norm in the region. While investigating this question, the article discusses the rapprochement efforts, reconciliatory initiatives, and normalization processes between the key players in the Middle East from 2021 to 2022. It offers a net assessment of the situation, reviews comprehensively the diplomatic breakthroughs related to the cases in question, explains the primary motives and drivers of involved countries, and highlights the challenges that will likely encounter them. The article concludes by anticipating the prospects of these developments.

An Uncertain Fortune: The Northern Bay of Bengal in the Two Melaka Eras (1402–1641)

Abstract While Melaka-Southeast Asia-China links continue to receive considerable scholarly interest, the Melaka region’s links with the economies of the northern Bay of Bengal have received less attention. Despite the fact that scholars have often focused extensively on the history of the Bay’s western littoral, and that the Straits played a crucial role in linking this western littoral to the China Seas during the Melaka era, the region has been marginalised in scholarship. As will become clear, the history of Melaka during this time can be divided into two discrete periods. The first of these periods started with the city-state’s foundation as regional rival to Ayutthaya by Palembang’s monarch Parameswara ca. 1402, and the second began with the Portuguese conquest of the port-city in 1511, after which the Straits became not only a transnational passageway for Persians, Arabs, South, Southeast and East Asians, but also a hub in East-West commerce. This study will investigate changes occurring in the northern Bay of Bengal world consequent to Melaka’s founding as regional emporium and subsequent emergence as an international marketplace, and ends with the Dutch capture of Melaka in 1641 and its subsequent decline concurrent with Batavia’s promotion as regional entrepôt.

Rouhani's Africa Policy: Disengagement, 2013–21

AbstractThe Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI)’s relations with Africa declined to a considerable extent during Hassan Rouhani's presidency. Rouhani pursued a foreign policy that showed little interest in the continent and did not consider it a strategic partner. Some scholars argue this policy exclusively resulted from the IRI's regional involvement in Syria and Yemen, as well as its economic difficulties due to US sanctions. Using Rosenau's pre‐theory model of foreign‐policy analysis, this article holistically asserts that a combination of individual, societal, and systemic factors caused Rouhani and his administration to neglect Africa. At an individual level, these factors included Rouhani's preference to implement a westward‐leaning foreign policy, differentiate himself from his predecessor, and repair Iran's regional and international image. Societally, Rouhani downgraded relations with Africa due to the popularity of his westward‐leaning policy among his base of voters and supporters, alongside political factions and parties inside the government. Systemically, Rouhani disengaged from the continent in response to unfavorable, exogenous conditions, including the IRI's increased diplomatic and economic isolation by the United States, its intensified conflict with and pressure from regional rivals, and its rising challenges and setbacks in Africa.

Integration of Iran-backed armed groups into the Iraqi and Syrian armed forces: implications for stability in Iraq and Syria

ABSTRACT Since 2018, an increasing number of Iran-backed armed groups have started to be integrated into the Syrian and Iraqi official armed forces. The integration of armed groups allows Tehran to enjoy a multi-layered, longer-term, and potentially less expensive influence in Iraq and Syria. Besides, underlying ideological and ideational ties between the armed groups and Iran continue to affect their strategic choices. Meanwhile, and in order to preserve its ability to directly impact the developments, Tehran continues to support an array of smaller militias outside the state structures. This indicates a shifting pattern in Iran’s regional network, from relying predominantly on non-state actors to enjoying a more complex set of non-state and semi-state allies. The consolidation of this model could have considerable implications for Iraq and Syria: 1- Dual loyalties in the Iraqi and Syrian states will make it difficult to form an inclusive government and promote national unity; 2- Anti-American and anti-Israeli ideological elements in the Iraqi and Syrian armed forces’ structure could prevent establishing better ties with the US or Israel; 3- The concern of Iran’s regional rivals over the expansion of Tehran’s influence in Iraq and Syria turns the two countries into a theater for regional confrontations.