Regional Precipitation Regime Research Articles

Regional Precipitation Regimes and Evaluation of National Precipitation Datasets against Satellite-Based Precipitation Estimates, Republic of Georgia

Abstract Analyzing water resources in areas with few hydrometeorological stations, such as those in post-Soviet countries, is difficult due to station closures after 1989. In Caucasus, evaluations often rely on outdated data from nearby rivers. We evaluated one national-level precipitation dataset, the Water Balance of Georgia (WBG) with two satellite-based precipitation products from 1981 to 2021, including the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) data and CHIRPS blended with a dense rain gauge network (geoCHIRPS). We modeled mean annual precipitation from geoCHIRPS as a function of coastal distance and elevation. CHIRPS underestimated precipitation in the cold and wet seasons (R2 = 0.74, r = 0.86) and overestimated dry season precipitation, while geoCHIRPS performed well in all seasons (R2 = 0.86, r = 0.92). Distance from the coast was a more important predictor of precipitation than elevation in western Georgia, while precipitation correlated positively with elevation in the east. At four hydroelectric plants, the underperformance as a percentage of capacity (∼37%) corresponds with the percentage difference between differences in precipitation products (∼38%), suggesting that plants designed based on WBG may be systematically overdesigned, but further work is needed to determine the reasons for the underperformance of the plants and frequency. We conclude that 1) the existing WBG does not accurately reflect elevation–precipitation relationships near the coast, and 2) for accurate analysis of spatiotemporal precipitation variability and its impacts on hydropower generation and environmental and sustainable water resource management, it is essential to calibrate satellite-based precipitation estimates with additional rain gauge data.

Atmospheric drying and soil drying: Differential effects on grass community composition

AbstractGlobal surface temperatures are projected to increase in the future; this will modify regional precipitation regimes and increase global atmospheric drying. Despite many drought studies examining the consequences of reduced precipitation, there are few experimental studies exploring plant responses to atmospheric drying via relative humidity and vapor pressure deficit (VPD). We examined eight native California perennial grass species grown in pots in a greenhouse in Los Angeles, California for 34 weeks. All pots were well‐watered for 21 weeks, at which point we reduced watering to zero and recorded daily growth and dormancy for 3 weeks. We used this information to better understand the drought tolerance of our species in a larger soil drying × atmospheric drying experiment. In this larger experiment, we grew all eight species together in outdoor mesocosms and measured changes in community composition after 4 years of growth. Soil drying in our small pot experiment mirrored compositional shifts in the larger experiment. Namely, our most drought‐tolerant species in our pot experiment was Poa secunda, due to a summer dormancy strategy. Similarly, the grass community shifted toward P. secunda in the driest soils as P. secunda was mostly unaffected by either soil drying or atmospheric drying. We found that some species responded strongly to soil drying (Elymus glaucus, Festuca idahoensis, and Hordeum b. californicum), while others responded strongly to atmospheric drying (Bromus carinatus and Stipa cernua). As result, community composition shifted in different and interacting ways in response to soil drying, atmospheric drying, and their combination. Further study of community responses to increasing atmospheric aridity is an essential next step to predicting the future consequences of climate change.

Precipitation Conditions Constrain the Sensitivity of Aboveground Net Primary Productivity in Tibetan Plateau Grasslands to Climate Change

Continued climate warming and precipitation fluctuations are expected to further affect aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) across alpine grasslands, with associated implications for ecosystem functions. The spatial and temporal variability of ANPP in Tibetan Plateau (TP) grasslands and its response to temperature and precipitation were investigated in this study, based on the ANPP estimated by means of ensemble analysis of multiple machine learning models. First, the response of the spatial distribution of ANPP to variations in the precipitation gradient was nonlinear and showed an S-shaped growth pattern, which could be divided into four stages (stationary, rapid growth, slower growth, and saturation) corresponding to arid (mean annual precipitation (MAP) < 250 mm), semiarid (250 mm < MAP < 450 mm), semihumid (450 mm < MAP < 650 mm) and humid (MAP > 650 mm) precipitation regimes, respectively. Second, regional precipitation regimes affected the sensitivity of ANPP’s interannual variability to temperature and precipitation; ANPP is more sensitive to temperature in wetter areas than in dryer areas of the TP region. The results of our study suggest that in the region of Tibetan Plateau, the response of grassland ANPP variation to climate was constrained by the background precipitation regimes.

Regional Climate Change Effects on the Viticulture in Portugal

The grapevine (Vitis vinifera) is widely cultivated for the production of wine and other commodities. Wine is globally traded, with an annual market value of approximately USD 4 billion in Portugal alone. However, climate change is expected to profoundly alter regional temperature and precipitation regimes across the Iberian Peninsula and, thus, in continental Portugal, potentially threatening to impact viticulture. We used boosted regression trees and environmental variables describing the climate, soil, topography, and irrigation with a large number of presences (N = 7002) to estimate grapevine suitability for a baseline (1981–2010) and three future periods spanning from 2011 to 2100 using two climate trajectories (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and irrigation scenarios (continued and ceased). Under SSP3-7.0 with irrigation and SSP5-8.5 without irrigation, our results suggest a decline in suitable viticulture area across continental Portugal of ~20% and ~80% by 2041–2070 and 2011–2041, respectively. Following this decline, our data suggest a potential recovery by 2071–2100 of ~6% and ~186%, respectively. However, regional change is more complex: by 2071–2100, the Região Norte, the Douro wine region, and the Algarve, for example, each would experience future changes in suitable area in the range of approximately −92% to −48%, −86% to −24%, and −59% to 267%, respectively, depending mostly on the practicality of irrigation.

Seasonal variability of future extreme precipitation and associated trends across the Contiguous U.S.

Global climate models and long-term observational records point to the intensification of extreme precipitation due to global warming. Such intensification has direct implications for worsening floods and damage to life and property. This study investigates the projected trends (2015–2100) in precipitation climatology and daily extremes using Community Earth System Model Version 2 large ensemble (CESM2-LE) simulations at regional and seasonal scales. Specifically, future extreme precipitation is examined in National Climate Assessment (NCA) regions over the Contiguous United States using SSP3-7.0 (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway). Extreme precipitation is analyzed in terms of daily maximum precipitation and simple daily intensity index (SDII) using Mann-Kendall (5% significance level) and Theil-Sen (TS) regression. The most substantial increases occur in the highest precipitation values (95th) during summer and winter clustered in the Midwest and Northeast, respectively, according to long-term extreme trends evaluated in quantiles (i.e., 25, 50, 75, and 95th). Seasonal climatology projections suggest wetting and drying patterns, with wetting in spring and winter in the eastern areas and drying during summer in the Midwest. Lower quantiles in the central U.S. are expected to remain unchanged, transitioning to wetting patterns in the fall due to heavier precipitation. Winter positive trends (at a 5% significance level) are most prevalent in the Northeast and Southeast, with an overall ensemble agreement on such trends. In spring, these trends are predominantly found in the Midwest. In the Northeast and Northern Great Plains, the intensity index shows a consistent wetting pattern in spring, winter, and summer, whereas a drying pattern is projected in the Midwest during summer. Normalized regional changes are a function of indices, quantiles, and seasons. Specifically, seasonal accumulations present larger changes (~30% and above) in summer and lower changes (< ~20%) in winter in the Southern Great Plains and the Southwestern U.S. Examining projections of extreme precipitation change across distinct quantiles provides insights into the projected variability of regional precipitation regimes over the coming decades.

The other side of tropical forest drought: do shallow water table regions of Amazonia act as large-scale hydrological refugia from drought?

Tropical forest function is of global significance to climate change responses, and critically determined by water availability patterns. Groundwater is tightly related to soil water through the water table depth (WT), but historically neglected in ecological studies. Shallow WT forests (WT < 5 m) are underrepresented in forest research networks and absent in eddy flux measurements, although they represent c. 50% of the Amazon and are expected to respond differently to global-change-related droughts. We review WT patterns and consequences for plants, emerging results, and advance a conceptual model integrating environment and trait distributions to predict climate change effects. Shallow WT forests have a distinct species composition, with more resource-acquisitive and hydrologically vulnerable trees, shorter canopies and lower biomass than deep WT forests. During 'normal' climatic years, shallow WT forests have higher mortality and lower productivity than deep WT forests, but during moderate droughts mortality is buffered and productivity increases. However, during severe drought, shallow WT forests may be more sensitive due to shallow roots and drought-intolerant traits. Our evidence supports the hypothesis of neglected shallow WT forests being resilient to moderate drought, challenging the prevailing view of widespread negative effects of climate change on Amazonian forests that ignores WT gradients, but predicts they could collapse under very strong droughts.

Analysis of climate change in Terskol over the last 60 years

In connection with the ongoing climatic changes, the tasks of monitoring the climate of the high-mountainous zone of the Caucasus are of particular importance. Climatological studies in this work are based on the material of long-term meteorological observations from 1961 to 2020. according to the Terskol weather station. Correlation analysis showed the spatial homogeneity of temperature changes in Terskol and weather stations of all climatic zones of southern Russia, in contrast to the regional precipitation regime with a small scale of coherence (up to 200 km). In the modern period (1991-2020), the change in average temperatures in comparison with climatic norms (1961-1990) is not confirmed by statistical estimates, with the exception of the summer season. Over the 60-year period, from 1961 to 2020, there was a statistically significant increase in average summer temperatures by 0.31 °C/10 years (D = 26.8%). At the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries a steady increase in winter, spring and annual temperatures is formed, while summer temperatures maintain a positive trend, but statistically insignificant at this time interval. Period from 2006 characterized by the addition of a statistically significant increase in the absolute maximums of all seasonal temperatures, in contrast to the sums and daily maximum precipitation, the decrease in which in the winter season is statistically insignificant, and there are no trends in other seasons. Such a prevailing thermal and precipitation regime in recent decades has become the main component of many factors leading to dangerous slope phenomena, glacier degradation and significant changes in the hydrological regime.

Above- and belowground trait linkages of dominant species shape responses of alpine steppe composition to precipitation changes in the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract Aims Human activities and global changes have led to alterations in global and regional precipitation regimes. Despite extensive studies on the effects of changes in precipitation regimes on plant community composition across different types of grassland worldwide, few studies have specifically focused on the effects of precipitation changes on high-altitude alpine steppe at community and plant species levels in the Tibetan Plateau. Methods We investigated the effects of growing-season precipitation changes (reduced precipitation by 50%, ambient precipitation, enhanced precipitation by 50%) for 6 years on plant community composition in an alpine steppe of the Tibetan Plateau by linking above- to belowground traits of dominant species. Important Findings We found that reduced precipitation shifted community composition from dominance by bunchgrass (primarily Stipa purpurea) to dominance by rhizomatous grass (primarily Leymus secalinus). Roots and leaf traits of L. secalinus and S. purpurea differed in their responses to reduced precipitation. Reduced precipitation enhanced root vertical length and carbon (C) allocation to deep soil layers, and decreased the leaf width in L. secalinus, but it did not change the traits in S. purpurea. Moreover, reduced precipitation significantly enhanced rhizome biomass, length, diameter and adventitious root at the rhizome nodes in L. secalinus. These changes in traits may render rhizomatous grass greater competitive during drought stress. Therefore, our findings highlight important roles of above- and belowground traits of dominant species in plant community composition of alpine steppe under precipitation change.

Teleconnection patterns of precipitation in the Three-River Headwaters region, China

With the intensification of global warming, spatiotemporal variations in the climate and their mechanisms have received increasing attention. Currently, the relationship between regional precipitation regime, large-scale circulation, and topography, particularly in high-altitude areas such as the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, are not well understood. Herein, the spatial and temporal variability in the annual and intra-annual (wet and dry periods) precipitation at 33 stations in the Three-River Headwaters (TRH) region from 1967 to 2016 are analysed. Moreover, the empirical orthogonal function and wavelet transform coherence methods are used to analyse the relationships between the different modes of precipitation change and 14 atmospheric circulation indices. The following results were obtained. (1) The mean annual precipitation and mean dry period precipitation significantly increased over the studied period. Annual and intra-annual precipitation showed a spatial southeast-to-northwest decreasing trend. (2) Two main patterns of precipitation were observed during the studied period: a dominant pattern with high- and low-value centres located in southeast and northwest TRH, respectively, and a dipole pattern with more precipitation over southwest TRH and less precipitation over northeast TRH. (3) Precipitation had a negative correlation with latitude, positive correlation with longitude, and nonlinear relationship with elevation. (4) Precipitation changes over various parts of the studied domain were determined based on changes in the weather systems affecting the area, with different indices being correlated with different components during different times of the year.

Patterns of Water Vapor Transport in the Eastern United States

AbstractThis study presents a climatology of water vapor fluxes for the eastern United States and adjacent Atlantic with particular focus on the Northeast. Pathways of moisture transport comprising this climatology were discerned using a self-organizing map methodology ingesting daily integrated vapor transport data from ECMWF ERA-Interim Reanalysis from 1979 to 2017 at a 2.5° × 2.5° spatial resolution. Sixteen spatially distinct moisture transport patterns capture the variety of water vapor transport in the region. The climatology of water vapor transport is precisely and comprehensively defined via synthesis of spatial and temporal characteristics of the fluxes. Each flux has a distinct seasonality and frequency. The fluxes containing the highest amounts of moisture transport occur less frequently than those with less moisture transport. Because the patterns showing less moisture transport are prevalent, they are major contributors to the manner in which water vapor is moved through the eastern United States. The spatial confinement of fluxes is inversely related to persistence, with strong, narrow bands of enhanced moisture transport most often moving through the region on daily time scales. Many moisture fluxes meet a threshold-based definition of atmospheric rivers, with the diversity in trajectories and moisture sources indicating that a variety of mechanisms develop these enhanced moisture transport conditions. Temporal variability in the monthly frequencies of several of the fluxes in this study aligns with changes in the regional precipitation regime, demonstrating that this water vapor flux climatology provides a precise moisture-delivery framework from which changes in precipitation can be investigated.

Extreme rainfall events alter the trophic structure in bromeliad tanks across the Neotropics

Changes in global and regional precipitation regimes are among the most pervasive components of climate change. Intensification of rainfall cycles, ranging from frequent downpours to severe droughts, could cause widespread, but largely unknown, alterations to trophic structure and ecosystem function. We conducted multi-site coordinated experiments to show how variation in the quantity and evenness of rainfall modulates trophic structure in 210 natural freshwater microcosms (tank bromeliads) across Central and South America (18°N to 29°S). The biomass of smaller organisms (detritivores) was higher under more stable hydrological conditions. Conversely, the biomass of predators was highest when rainfall was uneven, resulting in top-heavy biomass pyramids. These results illustrate how extremes of precipitation, resulting in localized droughts or flooding, can erode the base of freshwater food webs, with negative implications for the stability of trophic dynamics.

A general framework for propagule dispersal in mangroves.

Dispersal allows species to shift their distributions in response to changing climate conditions. As a result, dispersal is considered a key process contributing to a species' long-term persistence. For many passive dispersers, fluid dynamics of wind and water fuel these movements and different species have developed remarkable adaptations for utilizing this energy to reach and colonize suitable habitats. The seafaring propagules (fruits and seeds) of mangroves represent an excellent example of such passive dispersal. Mangroves are halophytic woody plants that grow in the intertidal zones along tropical and subtropical shorelines and produce hydrochorous propagules with high dispersal potential. This results in exceptionally large coastal ranges across vast expanses of ocean and allows species to shift geographically and track the conditions to which they are adapted. This is particularly relevant given the challenges presented by rapid sea-level rise, higher frequency and intensity of storms, and changes in regional precipitation and temperature regimes. However, despite its importance, the underlying drivers of mangrove dispersal have typically been studied in isolation, and a conceptual synthesis of mangrove oceanic dispersal across spatial scales is lacking. Here, we review current knowledge on mangrove propagule dispersal across the various stages of the dispersal process. Using a general framework, we outline the mechanisms and ecological processes that are known to modulate the spatial patterns of mangrove dispersal. We show that important dispersal factors remain understudied and that adequate empirical data on the determinants of dispersal are missing for most mangrove species. This review particularly aims to provide a baseline for developing future research agendas and field campaigns, filling current knowledge gaps and increasing our understanding of the processes that shape global mangrove distributions.

Response of Chironomidae to environmental disturbances in a high mountain lake in Patagonia during the last millennium

AbstractThrough the last millennium, Patagonia has been affected by changing climate conditions and successive volcanic eruptions. Lake Tonček is a high-altitude lake in the Southern Volcanic Zone in the northern Patagonian Andes. We documented the responses of the subfossil chironomid community to the effects of successive volcanic and different conditions in a sedimentary sequence from this lake comprising the last 900 years. The community composition and structure (abundance, diversity, and richness) and the development of morphological anomalies in the chironomid mouthparts were evaluated throughout the core. Both climatic conditions and volcanism affected the chironomid community differentially. The chironomid community changed following short-term climate change patterns, being affecting not only by temperature changes but also by variations in the regional precipitation regime. Decreases in abundance and diversity were only observed in coarse volcanic layers. In these samples, we recorded a high percentage of damaged chironomid mouthparts caused by mechanical wear, breakage or abrasion, possibly due to the increase of mineral particles. Our results represent important baseline data about the responses of chironomid communities to environmental disturbances in high-altitude lakes over long time frames.

Fungal Communities and Functional Guilds Shift Along an Elevational Gradient in the Southern Appalachian Mountains.

Nitrogen deposition alters forest ecosystems particularly in high elevation, montane habitats where nitrogen deposition is greatest and continues to increase. We collected soils across an elevational (788-1940m) gradient, encompassing both abiotic (soil chemistry) and biotic (vegetation community) gradients, at eight locations in the southern Appalachian Mountains of southwestern North Carolina and eastern Tennessee. We measured soil chemistry (total N, C, extractable PO4, soil pH, cation exchange capacity [ECEC], percent base saturation [% BS]) and dissected soil fungal communities using ITS2 metabarcode Illumina MiSeq sequencing. Total soil N, C, PO4, % BS, and pH increased with elevation and plateaued at approximately 1400m, whereas ECEC linearly increased and C/N decreased with elevation. Fungal communities differed among locations and were correlated with all chemical variables, except PO4, whereas OTU richness increased with total N. Several ecological guilds (i.e., ectomycorrhizae, saprotrophs, plant pathogens) differed in abundance among locations; specifically, saprotroph abundance, primarily attributable to genus Mortierella, was positively correlated with elevation. Ectomycorrhizae declined with total N and soil pH and increased with total C and PO4 where plant pathogens increased with total N and decreased with total C. Our results demonstrate significant turnover in taxonomic and functional fungal groups across elevational gradients which facilitate future predictions on forest ecosystem change in the southern Appalachians as nitrogen deposition rates increase and regional temperature and precipitation regimes shift.

Late Pleistocene-Holocene vegetation and climate change in the Middle Kalahari, Lake Ngami, Botswana

Pollen, spores, and microscopic charcoal from a sediment core from Lake Ngami, in the Middle Kalahari, reflect paleovegetation and paleoclimatic conditions over the last 16,600 cal years BP. The location of Lake Ngami allows for the receipt of moisture sourced from the Indian and/or Atlantic oceans, which may have influenced local rainfall or long distance water transport via the Okavango system. We interpret results of statistical analyses of the pollen data as showing a complex, dynamic system wherein variability in tropical convective systems and local forcing mechanisms influence hydrological changes. Our reconstructions show three primary phases in the regional precipitation regime: 1) an early period of high but fluctuating summer rainfall under relatively cool conditions from ∼16,600–12,500 cal BP, with reduced tree to herb and shrub ratio; 2) an episode of significantly reduced rainfall centered around c. 11,400 cal BP, characterized by an increase in xeric Asteraceae pollen, but persistent aquatic elements, suggesting less rainfall but cool conditions and lower evaporation that maintained water in the basin; and 3) a longer phase of high, but fluctuating rainfall from ∼9000 cal BP to present with more woody savanna vegetation (Vachellia (Acacia) and Combretaceae). We propose a model to relate these changes to increased Indian Ocean-sourced moisture in the late Pleistocene due to a southerly position of the African rain belt, a northerly contraction of tropical systems that immediately followed the Younger Dryas, and a subsequent dominance of local insolation forcing, modulated by changes in the SE Atlantic basin.

Sediment transfer at different spatial and temporal scales in the Sichuan Hilly Basin, China: Synthesizing data from multiple approaches and preliminary interpretation in the context of climatic and anthropogenic drivers

Quantifying sediment production and transfer at different spatial and temporal scales in a changing environment is critical in understanding the potential effects of climatic and anthropogenic drivers. Accordingly, estimates of soil erosion and sediment production at hillslope field, first-order small catchment (<0.25km2) and river basin scales in the Sichuan Hilly Basin of Southwestern China, generated using a variety of techniques, including fallout radionuclide tracing, runoff plot observations, core chronology dating and conventional sediment flux monitoring, were synthesized and interpreted in the context of potential climatic and human controls. Mean annual soil erosion rates ranged from 800Mg·km−2·yr−1 to 4500Mg·km−2·yr−1 on the basis of fallout radionuclide tracing and from 600Mg·km−2·yr−1 to 3300Mg·km−2·yr−1 using runoff plot monitoring on selected cultivated hillslopes. A high slope-channel sediment delivery ratio was observed, meaning that a substantial proportion of eroded sediment was delivered into downstream drainage channels. An obvious temporal trend of decreasing sediment transfer to the river channels in the first-order catchments was identified, which may be driven by change in regional precipitation regime and the implementation of multiple soil conservation and reforestation practices over recent decades.

Variation of the hydrological regime of Bele-Shira closed basin in Southern Siberia and its reflection in the radial growth of Larix sibirica

This study analyses dynamics of the hydrological regime of Bele-Shira closed basin and evaluates the potential for using radial growth of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica) for its assessment. We investigated the relationships between different characteristics of the water level variation of Lake Shira, precipitation amount and long-term regional chronologies developed from 56 living trees and 32 dead trees on three sites across this basin. Graphical and correlation analysis indicate that the interannual change (June minus previous June) of the water level of Lake Shira is strongly positively related to the annual sum of precipitation from July to June and the radial growth of larch. It was shown that this hydrological characteristic integrates the current dynamics of the regional precipitation and moisture regime as a whole of the Bele-Shira closed basin on interannual and decadal scales. The water level of Lake Shira fluctuates on a multi-year timescale in synchrony with the cumulative sum of the tree-ring chronology and also has strong positive long-term trend, probably driven by the continual groundwater inflow from neighboring Lake Itkul. Delayed relationships of precipitation and radial growth with the Lake Shira level change are interpreted with reference to a water balance model of the closed basin. Results offer the possibility of reconstructing interannual and decadal variation of the hydrological regime during the last few centuries through regression models using tree-ring chronologies or the dynamics of climatic variables recovered from them.

Unexpected weak seasonal climate in the western Mediterranean region during MIS 31, a high-insolation forced interglacial

Marine Isotope Stage 31 (MIS 31) is an important analogue for ongoing and projected global warming, yet key questions remain about the regional signature of its extreme orbital forcing and intra-interglacial variability. Based on a new direct land-sea comparison in SW Iberian margin IODP Site U1385 we examine the climatic variability between 1100 and 1050 ka including the “super interglacial” MIS 31, a period dominated by the 41-ky obliquity periodicity. Pollen and biomarker analyses at centennial-scale-resolution provide new insights into the regional vegetation, precipitation regime and atmospheric and oceanic temperature variability on orbital and suborbital timescales. Our study reveals that atmospheric and SST warmth during MIS 31 was not exceptional in this region highly sensitive to precession. Unexpectedly, this warm stage stands out as a prolonged interval of a temperate and humid climate regime with reduced seasonality, despite the high insolation (precession minima values) forcing. We find that the dominant forcing on the long-term temperate forest development was obliquity, which may have induced a decrease in summer dryness and associated reduction in seasonal precipitation contrast. Moreover, this study provides the first evidence for persistent atmospheric millennial-scale variability during this interval with multiple forest decline events reflecting repeated cooling and drying episodes in SW Iberia. Our direct land-sea comparison shows that the expression of the suborbital cooling events on SW Iberian ecosystems is modulated by the predominance of high or low-latitude forcing depending on the glacial/interglacial baseline climate states. Severe dryness and air-sea cooling is detected under the larger ice volume during glacial MIS 32 and MIS 30. The extreme episodes, which in their climatic imprint are similar to the Heinrich events, are likely related to northern latitude ice-sheet instability and a disruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). In contrast, forest declines during MIS 31 are associated to neither SST cooling nor high-latitude freshwater forcing. Time-series analysis reveals a dominant cyclicity of about 6 ky in the temperate forest record, which points to a potential link with the fourth harmonic of precession and thus low-latitude insolation forcing.

Spatial-temporal analysis, variation and distribution of precipitation in the water district of Central-Eastern Greece

In this study, the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation in the Water District of Central – Eastern Greece is investigated for the 42-year period (1968 – 2009) by using monthly mean data from 35 rainfall gauges, with adequate spatial coverage. The basic objective is to infer the pattern of spatial variation of rainfall over the study area based on meteorological observations. The accurate estimation of rainfall’s spatial distribution is needed whenever hydrological modelling is undertaken at the watershed scale for model calibration and validation. By using timeseries analysis and geostatistical methods, the regional and seasonal precipitation change and regime of this region during over 40 years is analyzed. However, this input is subject to uncertainty due to the random nature of rainfall. For all stations, uniformity checking and appropriate completion (where needed) took place and it appears that orography plays significant role as far the amount of rainfall is concerned. The results indicate that high variations in regional rainfall estimation occur in the mountainous areas, while the variance decreases in shadow areas in all seasons. The analysis of rainfall showed that there exists a wide variation in the rainfall amounts with variation from 382.4mm to 1397mm with a significantly decreasing trend.

Large-scale circulation classification and its links to observed precipitation in the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau

The relationship between the large-scale circulation dynamics and regional precipitation regime in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has so far not been well understood. In this study, we classify the circulation types using the self-organizing maps based on the daily field of 500 hPa geopotential height and link them to the precipitation climatology in the eastern and central TP. By virtue of an objective determining method, 18 circulation types are quantified. The results show that the large amount of precipitation in summer is closely related to the circulation types in which the enhanced and northward shifted subtropical high (SH) over the northwest Pacific and the obvious cyclconic circulation anomaly over the Bay of Bengal are helpful for the Indian summer monsoon and East Asian summer monsoon to take abundant low-latitude moisture to the eastern and southern TP. On the contrary, the dry winter in the central and eastern Tibet corresponds to the circulation types with divergence over the central and eastern TP and the water vapor transportations of East Asian winter monsoon and mid-latitude westerly are very weak. Some circulation types are associated with some well-known circulation patterns/monsoons influencing the TP (e.g. East Atlantic Pattern, El Nino Southern Oscillation, Indian Summer Monsoon and the mid-latitude westerly), and exhibit an overall good potential for explaining the variability of regional seasonal precipitation. Moreover, the climate shift signals in the late 1970s over the eastern Pacific/North Pacific Oceans could also be reflected by both the variability of some circulation types and their correspondingly composite precipitations. This study extends our understandings for the large-scale atmospheric dynamics and their linkages with regional precipitation and is beneficial for the climate change projection and related adaptation activities in the highest and largest plateau in the world.