Regional Mean Sea Level Research Articles

Regional Mean Sea Level Variability Due to Tropical Cyclones: Insights from August Typhoons

This study investigates the interannual variations in regional mean sea levels (MSLs) of the northeast Asian marginal seas (NEAMS) during August, focusing on the role of typhoon activity from 1993 to 2019. The NEAMS are connected to the Pacific through the East China Sea (ECS) and narrow, shallow straits in the east, where inflow from the southern boundary (ECS), unless balanced by eastern outflow, leads to significant convergence or divergence, as well as subsequent changes in regional MSLs. Satellite altimetry and tide-gauge data reveal that typhoon-induced Ekman transport plays a key role in MSL variability, with increased inflow raising MSLs during active typhoon seasons. In contrast, weak typhoon activity reduces inflow, resulting in lower MSLs. This study’s findings have significant implications for coastal management, as the projected changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity due to climate change could exacerbate sea level rise and flooding risks. Coastal communities in the NEAMS region will need to prioritize enhanced flood defenses, early warning systems, and adaptive land use strategies to mitigate these risks. This is the first study to link typhoon frequency directly to NEAMS MSL variability, highlighting the critical role of wind-driven processes in regional sea level changes.

Analyzing the coastal sea level trends from SCMR-reprocessed altimeter data: A case study in the northern South China Sea

With improved altimeter data near the coast, it is possible to use them in analysis of coastal sea level trends. In this study, we assess the sea level trends over January 2002-April 2022 with the SCMR-reprocessed altimeter dataset in the coastal zone of the northern South China Sea (SCS). The reliability of this dataset is confirmed by the inter-comparison with the CMEMS (Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service) Level-3 along-track data product and the ESA CCI (European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative) v2.2 virtual station product, along with the validation against tide gauge records. Compared to two altimeter products, the SCMR has a higher number of data points for the analysis of sea level trends in the study region (28439 vs 1408 for CMEMS and 868 for ESA CCI). The monthly SLA time series from the SCMR dataset are more consistent with those from tide gauge records in terms of higher correlation coefficients (0.37–0.83) and lower root mean square of the differences (RMSD, 33.98–92.19 mm) between altimeter and tide gauge. The along-track sea level trends within the 0–20 km coastal strip range between 2–5 mm yr−1, and the degradation of sea level trends occurs when the along-track trends show significant fluctuations at the spatial scales of ∼ 300 m. Therefore, a further data editing strategy is recommended in this regard. We also find that the ENSO-related signals mainly impact on sea levels in the west of Luzon Strait and of the Philippine coast, but are dampened along the Chinese coast over 2002–2022. The regional mean sea level trend is reduced from 3.54 ± 0.85 mm yr−1 to 3.00 ± 0.84 mm yr−1 after removing the ENSO-related low-frequency variability. Finally, the variation of sea level trends from offshore oceans to coasts is found to be nonlinear, indicating the complexity of sea level changes in the study area. The blending of tide gauge records and the SCMR dataset has been successfully conducted in four tide gauges over a longer period of January 1993-April 2022, which would contribute to the analysis of long-term sea level trends at the local scales.

A Review of the Contribution of Satellite Altimetry and Tide Gauge Data to Evaluate Sea Level Trends in the Adriatic Sea within a Mediterranean and Global Context

The relatively new sea level satellite altimetry and secular coastal tide gauge data made the reconstruction of sea levels on regional and global scales possible about one century back. Due to better estimations of the Earth’s crustal, glacial, tectonic, and other possible motion biases in tide gauge data, some additional improvements can be expected in sea level reconstructions, analysis, and predictions. A more detailed review of published sea level-related results was conducted for the Eastern Adriatic coast, including the operation of the tide gauge network and data processing, crustal movement estimations, and the establishment of a new reference height system in Croatia, based on five tide gauge sea level data. It was shown that sea level variation and trend-related indicators are spatially homogeneous, especially on a sub-Adriatic scale. The regional Adriatic Sea mean sea level rise rate of +2.6 mm/year for the satellite altimetry era (1993–2019) is less than the global mean sea level (GMSL) rise rate of +3.3 mm/year for the period of 1993–2022. Several empirical methods for GMSL projections and expected IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) assessments until the end of the 21st century are considered.

On the uncertainty associated with detecting global and local mean sea level drifts on Sentinel-3A and Sentinel-3B altimetry missions

Abstract. An instrumental drift in the point target response (PTR) parameters has been detected on the Copernicus Sentinel-3A altimetry mission. It will affect the accuracy of sea level sensing, which could result in errors in sea level change estimates of a few tenths of a millimeter per year. In order to accurately evaluate this drift, a method for detecting global and regional mean sea level relative drifts between two altimetry missions is implemented. Associated uncertainties are also accurately calculated thanks to a detailed error budget analysis. A drift on both Sentinel-3A (S3A) and Sentinel-3B (S3B) global mean sea level (GMSL) is detected with values significantly higher than expected. For S3A, the relative GMSL drift detected is 1.0 mm yr−1 with Jason-3 and 1.3 mm yr−1 with SARAL/AltiKa. For S3B, the relative GMSL drift detected is −3.4 mm yr−1 with Jason-3 and −2.2 mm yr−1 with SARAL/AltiKa. The drift detected at global level does not show detectable regional variations above the uncertainty level of the proposed method. The investigations led by the altimeter experts can now explain the origin of this drift for S3A and S3B. The ability of the implemented method to detect a sea level drift with respect to the length of the common period is also analyzed. We find that the minimum detectable sea level drift over a 5-year period is 0.3 mm yr−1 at the global scale and 1.5 mm yr−1 at the 2400 km regional scale. However, these levels of uncertainty do not meet the sea level stability requirements for climate change studies.

Sea Levels Dynamical Downscaling and Climate Change Projections at the Uruguayan Coast

This work implements a dynamical downscaling approach, based on a set of nested two-dimensional hydrodynamic models, to quantify the expected changes in the total sea level climate and its components for the Uruguayan coast, using surface wind and sea level pressure projections from global climate models generated during the Phase 5 of the Coupled Models Inter-Comparison Project, considering three time horizons: historical period (1986-2005), short term (2027-2045) and long term (2082-2100), and the future scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. It is concluded that the main contribution to the projected changes in the area is the regional mean sea level rise, followed in importance by the effect that the increase in the water depth has on the amplitude of the tidal components. Moreover, it is concluded that changes in the meteorological residuals (or surges), associated with potential changes in the atmospheric circulation patterns, are negligible in the study area. The obtained results reinforce the need to resort to dynamic downscaling for projecting total sea level changes in areas characterized by wide and shallow continental shelfs and estuaries, as this approach allows to resolve the interactions that may arise between tides, surges and the mean sea level rise, something that cannot addressed with an approach based solely on statistical downscaling.

Extreme floods of Venice: characteristics, dynamics, past and future evolution (review article)

Abstract. Floods in the Venice city centre result from the superposition of several factors: astronomical tides; seiches; and atmospherically forced fluctuations, which include storm surges, meteotsunamis, and surges caused by atmospheric planetary waves. All these factors can contribute to positive water height anomalies individually and can increase the probability of extreme events when they act constructively. The largest extreme water heights are mostly caused by the storm surges produced by the sirocco winds, leading to a characteristic seasonal cycle, with the largest and most frequent events occurring from November to March. Storm surges can be produced by cyclones whose centres are located either north or south of the Alps. Historically, the most intense events have been produced by cyclogenesis in the western Mediterranean, to the west of the main cyclogenetic area of the Mediterranean region in the Gulf of Genoa. Only a small fraction of the inter-annual variability in extreme water heights is described by fluctuations in the dominant patterns of atmospheric circulation variability over the Euro-Atlantic sector. Therefore, decadal fluctuations in water height extremes remain largely unexplained. In particular, the effect of the 11-year solar cycle does not appear to be steadily present if more than 100 years of observations are considered. The historic increase in the frequency of floods since the mid-19th century is explained by relative mean sea level rise. Analogously, future regional relative mean sea level rise will be the most important driver of increasing duration and intensity of Venice floods through this century, overcompensating for the small projected decrease in marine storminess. The future increase in extreme water heights covers a wide range, largely reflecting the highly uncertain mass contributions to future mean sea level rise from the melting of Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets, especially towards the end of the century. For a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5), the magnitude of 1-in-100-year water height values at the northern Adriatic coast is projected to increase by 26–35 cm by 2050 and by 53–171 cm by 2100 with respect to the present value and is subject to continued increase thereafter. For a moderate-emission scenario (RCP4.5), these values are 12–17 cm by 2050 and 24–56 cm by 2100. Local subsidence (which is not included in these estimates) will further contribute to the future increase in extreme water heights. This analysis shows the need for adaptive long-term planning of coastal defences using flexible solutions that are appropriate across the large range of plausible future water height extremes.

Measuring Global-Mean Sea-Level Rise With Surface Drifting Buoys

AbstractWe propose to establish a new ocean observing system for monitoring global and regional mean sea-level changes. This system will consist of a global array of thousands of water-following drifting buoys tracked by a global navigation satellite system—such as the Global Positioning System (GPS)—which will continuously provide the geographical positions and the height of the sea surface along the buoys' trajectories. The sea-level height data collected in this way, averaged over regional basins and the global ocean, will provide daily measures of regional and global mean sea levels. An essential climate variable, mean sea level is an intrinsic measure of climate change, integrating the thermal expansion of the ocean's waters and additions to the ocean's mass from melting terrestrial ice. The realization of this new system requires that standardized vertical position measurements with controlled accuracy be acquired and regularly transmitted from relatively small and expendable drifting buoys, which constitutes a technological challenge, yet one with a clear path for being met. The development and implementation of this ocean shot concept will ultimately provide an independent, resilient, sustainable, and economical observational system to quantify natural and anthropogenic sea-level changes, augmenting the existing satellites and tide gauge observing systems.

Impacts of the mid-latitude westerlies anomaly on the decadal sea level variability east of China

The present analysis has revealed that both the altimetry and tide gauge records show a prominent sea level rise from 1993 to 2016 in the coastal seas east of China, including Bohai, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea (BYECS). The regional mean sea level rise rate for the BYECS continental shelf area is ~ 3.2 mm/year, which is close to the global mean (2.9 mm/year). Besides the rising trend, the BYECS sea level anomaly (SLA) also shows obvious interannual and decadal oscillation. It is found that the mid-latitude westerlies, rather than the steric height variability, are responsible for these oscillations. By analyzing the 67-year (1950–2016) hindcast outputs from an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model, a 14.2 years decadal period is found to dominate the BYECS SLA variability, and the decadal oscillation is positively correlated with the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). The composite analysis and causality analysis demonstrate that during the positive phase of the NPGO, the mid-latitude westerlies decrease and a positive wind stress curl anomaly at the same latitude of the East China Sea’s Kuroshio occurs to the south of the westerlies. Consequently, the Kuroshio Current volume transport and sea surface height difference between the two sides of the Kuroshio decrease, that is, the sea level in the BYECS rises.

Long-term regional trend and variability of mean sea level during the satellite altimetry era

The rise and fall of mean sea level are non-uniform around the global oceans. Their long-term regional trend and variability are intimately linked to the fluctuations and changes in the climate system. In this study, geographical patterns of sea level change derived from altimetric data over the period 1993-2015 were partitioned into large-scale oscillations allied with prevailing climatic factors after an empirical orthogonal function analysis. Taking into account the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO), the sea level change deduced from the multiple regression showed a better estimate than the simple linear regression thanks to significantly larger coefficients of determination and narrower confidence intervals. Regional patterns associated with climatic factors varied greatly in different basins, notably in the eastern and western regions of the Pacific Ocean. The PDO exhibited a stronger impact on long-term spatial change in mean sea level than the ENSO in various parts of the Indian and Pacific Oceans, as well as of the subtropics and along the equator. Further improvements in the signal decomposition technique and physical understanding of the climate system are needed to better attain the signature of climatic factors on regional mean sea level.

Trends in Extreme Mean Sea Level Quantiles from Satellite Altimetry

ABSTRACTSatellite altimetry allows the study of sea-level long-term variability on a global and spatially uniform basis. Here quantile regression is applied to derive robust median regression trends of mean sea level as well as trends in extreme quantiles from radar altimetry time series. In contrast with ordinary least squares regression, which only provides an estimate on the rate of change of the mean of data distribution, quantile regression allows the estimation of trends at different quantiles of the data distribution, yielding a more complete picture of long-term variability. Trends derived from basin-wide averaged regional mean sea level time series are robust and similar for all quantiles, indicating that all parts of the data distribution are changing at the same rate. In contrast, trends are not robust and diverge across quantiles in the case of local time series. Trends are under- (over-)estimated in the western (eastern) equatorial Pacific. Furthermore, trends in the lowermost quantile (0.05) are larger than the median trend in the western Pacific, while trends in the uppermost quantile (0.95) are lower than the median trend in the eastern Pacific. These differences in trends in extreme mean sea level quantiles are explained by the exceptional effect of the strong 1997–1998 El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event.

Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change

Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5’s assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003–2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993–2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likely range, indicating that there is a greater probability that sea level rise by 2100 will lie in this range with a corresponding decrease in the likelihood of an additional contribution of several tens of centimeters above the likely range. In view of the comparatively limited state of knowledge and understanding of rapid ice sheet dynamics, we continue to think that it is not yet possible to make reliable quantitative estimates of future GMSL rise outside the likely range. Projections of twenty-first century GMSL rise published since the AR5 depend on results from expert elicitation, but we have low confidence in conclusions based on these approaches. New work on regional projections and emergence of the anthropogenic signal suggests that the two commonly predicted features of future regional sea level change (the increasing tilt across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the dipole in the North Atlantic) are related to regional changes in wind stress and surface heat flux. Moreover, it is expected that sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing, particularly in regions of relatively low unforced variability such as the low-latitude Atlantic, will be detectable over most of the ocean by 2040. The east-west contrast of sea level trends in the Pacific observed since the early 1990s cannot be satisfactorily accounted for by climate models, nor yet definitively attributed either to unforced variability or forced climate change.

On Sea Level Variability and Trends in United States Coastal Waters and Relationships with Climate Factors

Significant portions of the United States (U.S.) property, commerce and ecosystem assets are located at or near the coast, making them vulnerable to sea level variability and change, especially relative rises. Although global mean sea level (MSL) and sea level rise (SLR) are fundamental considerations, regional mean sea level (RSL) variability along the boundaries of U.S. along the two ocean basins are critical, particularly if the amplitudes of seasonal to annual to inter-annual variability is high. Of interest is that the conventional wisdom of the U.S. agencies, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) which both contend that the sources of sea level rise are related principally to heat absorption and release by the ocean(s) to the atmosphere and vice versa, and by Polar glacier melting and freshwater input into the ocean(s). While these phenomena are of great importance to SLR and sea level variability (SLV), we assess a suite of climate factors and the Gulf Stream, for evidence of correlations and thus possible influences; though causality is beyond the scope of this study. In this study, climate factors related to oceanic and atmospheric heat purveyors and reservoirs are analyzed and assessed for possible correlations with sea level variability and overall trends on actionable scales (localized as opposed to global scale). The results confirm that oceanic and atmospheric temperature variability and the disposition of heat accumulation or the lack thereof, are important players in sea level variability and rise, but also that the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, Solar Irradiance, the Western Boundary Current-Gulf Stream, and other climate factors, can have strong correlative and perhaps even causal, modulating effects on the monthly to seasonal to annual to inter-annual to decadal to multi-decadal sea level variability at the community level.

CO2-induced climate change in northern Europe: CMIP2 versus CMIP3 versus CMIP5

The simulation of near-present-day climate and climate change in northern Europe is compared between the CMIP2, CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, focusing on an idealized scenario with a doubling of CO2 in 70 years. The control simulations in the three ensembles share similar biases, including generally colder than observed temperatures and an underestimated north–south pressure gradient across northern Europe. The CO2-induced climate changes are also similar, despite a slight increasing (decreasing) trend in the simulated warming (precipitation increase) from the older towards the newer models. About half of the intermodel variance in the simulated annual mean warming in northern Europe is explained by differences in the global mean warming, whereas differences in the regional mean sea level pressure change contribute nearly 40 % of the variance of the annual precipitation change. An energy and water balance analysis for a subset of the models additionally suggests that the spread in the simulated warming is strongly affected by the snow-albedo feedback in spring and changes in cloudiness in summer, while both increased evaporation and changes in atmospheric water vapour convergence are important for precipitation changes. A comparison for the CMIP5 ensemble reveals a close similarity in temperature change in northern Europe between the idealized CO2 simulations and the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulations for the twenty-first century, once differences in the rate of the ensemble-averaged global mean warming are accounted for. Precipitation tends to increase slightly more under the RCP scenarios, possibly due to the assumed decrease in anthropogenic aerosols.

Sources of 21st century regional sea-level rise along the coast of northwest Europe

Abstract. Changes in both global and regional mean sea level, and changes in the magnitude of extreme flood heights, are the result of a combination of several distinct contributions most, but not all, of which are associated with climate change. These contributions include effects in the solid earth, gravity field, changes in ocean mass due to ice loss from ice sheets and glaciers, thermal expansion, alterations in ocean circulation driven by climate change and changing freshwater fluxes, and the intensity of storm surges. Due to the diverse range of models required to simulate these systems, the contributions to sea-level change have usually been discussed in isolation rather than in one self-consistent assessment. Focusing on the coastline of northwest Europe, we consider all the processes mentioned above and their relative impact on 21st century regional mean sea levels and the 50-year return flood height. As far as possible our projections of change are derived from process-based models forced by the A1B emissions scenario to provide a self-consistent comparison of the contributions. We address uncertainty by considering both a mid-range and an illustrative high-end combination of the different components. For our mid-range ice loss scenario we find that thermal expansion of seawater is the dominant contributor to change in northwest European sea level by 2100. However, the projected contribution to extreme sea level, due to changes in storminess alone, is in some places significant and comparable to the global mean contribution of thermal expansion. For example, under the A1B emissions scenario, by 2100, change in storminess contributes around 15 cm to the increase in projected height of the 50-year storm surge on the west coast of the Jutland Peninsula, compared with a contribution of around 22 cm due to thermal expansion and a total of 58 cm from all of the contributions we consider. An illustrative combination of our high-end projections suggests increases in the 50-year return level of 86 cm at Sheerness, 95 cm at Roscoff, 106 cm at Esbjerg, and 67cm at Bergen. The notable regional differences between these locations arise primarily from differences in the rates of vertical land movement and changes in storminess.

Pressure effects on regional mean sea level trends in the German Bight in the twenty-first century

The effect of large-scale atmospheric pressure changes on regional mean sea level projections in the German Bight in the twenty-first century are considered. A developed statistical model is applied to climate model data of sea level pressure for the twenty-first century to assess the potential contribution of large-scale atmospheric changes to future sea level changes in the German Bight. Using 78 experiments, an ensemble mean of 1.4-cm rise in regional mean sea level is estimated until the end of the twenty-first century. Changes are somewhat higher for realisations of the special report on emission scenarios (SRES) A1B and A2, but generally do not exceed a few centimeters. This is considerably smaller than the changes expected from steric and self-gravitational effects. Large-scale changes in sea level pressure are thus not expected to provide a substantial contribution to twenty-first century sea level changes in the German Bight.

Influence of time variable geopotential models on precise orbits of altimetry satellites, global and regional mean sea level trends

During the last decade a significant progress has been reached in the investigation of the gravity field of the Earth. Besides static, also time variable geopotential models have been recently created. In this paper we investigate the impact of the recent time variable geopotential models on altimetry satellite orbits and such altimetry products based on these orbits, as global and regional mean sea level trends. We show that the modeling of time variable gravity improves the orbit solutions, at least for the GRACE period where time variable gravity is sufficiently accurately observed by this mission. Our analysis includes six geopotential models jointly developed by GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences and Space Geodesy Research Group (CNES/GRGS) Toulouse: the stationary model EIGEN-GL04S, a stationary version of EIGEN-6S (EIGEN-6S_stat), a corrected version of EIGEN-6S and three enhanced versions of EIGEN-6S called EIGEN-6S2, EIGEN-6S2A and EIGEN-6S2B. By “stationary” we mean “containing periodic parameters such as annual and semi-annual variations, but no secular (drift) terms”. We computed precise orbits for the radar altimetry satellites ERS-1, ERS-2, TOPEX/Poseidon, and Envisat over 20years between 1991 and 2011. The orbit, single-mission and multi-mission altimetry crossover analyses show that the time variable models EIGEN-6S_corrected, EIGEN-6S2 and its two precursors EIGEN-6S2A/B perform notably better than the stationary models for the GRACE period from 2003 onwards. Thus, using EIGEN-6S2 and EIGEN-6S2A/B we have got 3.6% smaller root mean square fits of satellite laser ranging observations for Envisat, as when using EIGEN-GL04S. However, for the pre-GRACE period 1991–2003, the stationary geopotential models EIGEN-GL04S and EIGEN-6S_stat as well as EIGEN-6S2 having no drift terms for degree 3–50 at this time interval perform superior compared to EIGEN-6S_correct and EIGEN-6S2A/B which contain drifts for this period. We found, that the time variable geopotential models have a low (0.1–0.2mm/yr) impact on our results for the global mean sea level trend. However, we found strong East/West differences up to 3mm/yr in the regional mean sea level trends when using orbits of all four satellites based on time variable and stationary geopotential models. We show that these differences are related to the relative drifts of the centers-of-origin between the orbit solutions based on the time variable and stationary geopotential models. From the results of our detailed study, we conclude that the final version of the time variable gravity field model EIGEN-6S2 performs best for the four satellites tested. This model provides the most reliable and mission-consistent sea level estimates for the whole time period from 1992 to 2010. This model is of maximum spherical harmonic degree and order 260 and contains time series for drifts as well as annual and semiannual variations of the spherical harmonic coefficients for degree 2–50.

Future fire danger climatology for Tasmania, Australia, using a dynamically downscaled regional climate model

Daily values of McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index were generated at ~10-km resolution over Tasmania, Australia, from six dynamically downscaled CMIP3 climate models for 1961–2100, using a high (A2) emissions scenario. Multi-model mean fire danger validated well against observations for 2002–2012, with 99th percentile fire dangers having the same distribution and largely similar values to those observed over the same time. Model projections showed a broad increase in fire danger across Tasmania, but with substantial regional variation – the increase was smaller in western Tasmania (district mean cumulative fire danger increasing at 1.07 per year) compared with parts of the east (1.79 per year), for example. There was also noticeable seasonal variation, with little change occurring in autumn, but a steady increase in area subject to springtime 99th percentile fire danger from 6% in 1961–1980 to 21% by 2081–2100, again consistent with observations. In general, annually accumulated fire danger behaved similarly. Regional mean sea level pressure patterns resembled observed patterns often associated with days of dangerous fire weather. Days of elevated fire danger displaying these patterns increased in frequency during the simulated twenty-first century: in south-east Tasmania, for example, the number of such events detected rose from 101 (across all models) in 1961–1980 to 169 by 2081–2100. Correspondence of model output with observations and the regional detail available suggest that these dynamically downscaled model data are useful projections of future fire danger for landscape managers and the community.

Trends in high sea levels of German North Sea gauges compared to regional mean sea level changes

The impacts of rising mean sea levels will be felt most acutely during periods of extreme high sea levels which are caused by the combination of mean sea level, tides and storm surges. In this paper, we examine sea level records from six tide gauges along the German North Sea coastline to determine if changes in high sea levels observed throughout the 20th century and early 21st century were primarily driven by increases in mean sea level (i.e. like what has been observed by other authors in most parts of the world) or whether other factors, such as changes in ocean tides or storm surges also contributed significantly to observed changes in high water in this region. Time-series of annual 80th, 85th, 90th, 95th, 99th, and 99.9th percentiles are derived from the sea level records and trends are assessed using linear regression for the entire time periods for which datasets are available at each site and for the common period from 1953 to 2008. The percentile time-series are subsequently reduced relative to mean sea level and a second set of trends are estimated. At all sites and percentile levels, significant positive trends are evident for the observed sea level data. Once the percentile time-series are reduced relative to mean sea level the remaining trends are still significant at the 1σ-confidence level, with the exception of the 99.9th percentiles since the standard errors are large. Using a non-linear trend analysis, on the long Cuxhaven record, we find that prior to the mid-1950s and from about 1990 onwards, changes in high sea levels were not different from mean sea level changes. However, from the mid-1950s to 1990 changes were significantly different from those observed in mean sea level. Possible reasons for this appear to be due to changes in the amplitudes of several main tidal constituents, which are apparent since the mid-1950s and decadal variability in the storm activity (with strong westerly winds in the North Atlantic region from 1960 to the 1990s).

DORIS-based point mascons for the long term stability of precise orbit solutions

In recent years non-tidal Time Varying Gravity (TVG) has emerged as the most important contributor in the error budget of Precision Orbit Determination (POD) solutions for altimeter satellites’ orbits. The Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission has provided POD analysts with static and time-varying gravity models that are very accurate over the 2002–2012 time interval, but whose linear rates cannot be safely extrapolated before and after the GRACE lifespan. One such model based on a combination of data from GRACE and Lageos from 2002–2010, is used in the dynamic POD solutions developed for the Geophysical Data Records (GDRs) of the Jason series of altimeter missions and the equivalent products from lower altitude missions such as Envisat, Cryosat-2, and HY-2A. In order to accommodate long-term time-variable gravity variations not included in the background geopotential model, we assess the feasibility of using DORIS data to observe local mass variations using point mascons. In particular, we show that the point-mascon approach can stabilize the geographically correlated orbit errors which are of fundamental interest for the analysis of regional Mean Sea Level trends based on altimeter data, and can therefore provide an interim solution in the event of GRACE data loss. The time series of point-mass solutions for Greenland and Antarctica show good agreement with independent series derived from GRACE data, indicating a mass loss at rate of 210Gt/year and 110Gt/year respectively.

Reply to: Parker A. Comment on “Low-frequency sea level variation and its correlation with climate events in the Pacific”

First, we would like to thank Parker for his discussion and comments on our work. Parker’s main concern [1] is that the sea level is oscillating with important multi-decadal periodicities but absolutely not positively accelerating. He also argued that the global mean sea level (GMSL) acceleration computed by Jin et al. [2] seemed too large. His similar concern had also appeared in the comment of local sea level rise on Long Island, New York [3]. The most important difference between these two commented papers is that the former computes the sea level acceleration globally, while the latter locally. Parker quoted both, individual tide gauges and the time series of GMSL by satellite radar altimeter from the University of Colorado CU Sea Level Research Group. Individual tide-gauge records with enough length and quality can be used to compute the local sea level accelerating trend. However, the length should be longer than 60 years [4] to avoid large oscillations due to long-term tidal effects, which has also been confirmed by Parker himself [5]. As we known, individual tide-gauge records only represent the mean sea level variation within localized area. Parker presented the sea level records of several tide gauges in his Figure 1. The length of sea level time series are all longer than 100 years, and the 2nd order coefficients computed from the time series have both positive and negative values. The results show the largest positive acceleration in San Francisco, CA of +0.007 mm/a, and the largest negative acceleration in Honolulu, HI of 0.006 mm/a. These phenomena demonstrate that the local sea levels are accelerating or decelerating in different sea areas. Nevertheless, the GMSL accelerating trend is still unknown from his Figure 1. Either by tide gauges, or by satellite radar altimetry, many researches have achieved the conclusion that regional mean sea level trends are geographically dependent. Woodworth et al. [6] had pointed out that most of the tide-gauge data from Europe and North America display evidence for a positive acceleration, but the magnitude of the acceleration varies between stations. There are also a few of stations which display negative accelerations. From the most recent results published by AVISO (http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/ en/news/ocean-indicators/mean-sea-level/) and that shown in Figure 1, we can see large difference, especially between eastern and western parts of the Pacific Ocean. Another fact is that the magnitude of the acceleration/deceleration depends on the time period of observations. For comparison, we select the tide gauges whose periods are longer then 60 years from the Revised Local Reference (RLR) dataset provided by PSMSL (http://www.psmsl.org/ data/obtaining/) [7], and remove the tide gauges whose spare time is greater then 30% to ensure the stability. Then considering the seasonal signals, the sea level records on each selected tide gauge are fitted by the following linear regression model: 2 cos(2 ) sin(2 ) cos(4 )