Regional Labour Market Conditions Research Articles

Zunehmende Fachkräfteengpässe – Warum sind ländliche Räume besonders betroffen?

Abstract Over the past decade, firms’ recruitment problems have increased significantly in Germany. We show that skill shortages have been more pronounced in rural areas and that the gap between rural and urban regions has slightly increased. The intensity of a local skill shortage is linked to regional labour market conditions, the occupational composition and the share of small establishments. However, the most important factor is a more advanced demographic change in rural areas. Of all factors considered, the proportion of older workers correlates most strongly with the regional vacancy rate.

Do regional labor market conditions matter for temporary work disability duration? A multilevel analysis of workers' compensation claims in five Canadian provinces.

Research has shown how regionally varying labor market conditions are associated with differences in work disability duration. However, the majority of these studies have not used multilevel models to appropriately account for the hierarchical clustering of individuals nested within contextual units (e.g., regions). Studies that have used multilevel models have focused on privately insured workers or on disability not specifically caused by work-related injury or illness. Using claims data from five Canadian provincial workers' compensation systems, linear random-intercept models were used to estimate how much variance in temporary work disability duration ('work disability duration' for brevity) for work-related injuries and musculoskeletal disorders was due to differences between economic regions, what economic region-level labor market characteristics were associated with work disability duration, and what characteristics best explained economic region differences in work disability duration. Economic region characteristics, such as the unemployment rate and proportion of goods-producing employment, were independently associated with individual-level work disability duration. However, economic region variation only accounted for 1.5%-2% of total variation in work disability duration. The majority (71%) of economic region-level variation was explained by the provincial jurisdiction where the worker livedand was injured. Regional variation tended to be greater for female workers than males. The findings suggest that while regional labor market conditions matter for work disability duration, system-level differences in workers' compensation and health care are more important factors influencing work disability duration. Furthermore, while this study includes both temporary and permanent disability claims, the work disability duration measure only captures temporary disability.

Young people’s job-search strategies in the German apprenticeship market: Who relies on referrals by strong ties and why?

Social capital is often regarded as an important resource when searching for a job. However, unlike in the general labor market, in youth labor markets, leveraging network contacts does not necessarily enhance young people’s chances compared to formal job-search methods. Who then uses referrals by strong ties to support their school-to-work transitions? Drawing on the German National Educational Panel Study, we focus on noncollege-bound students searching for apprenticeship places. We investigate whether parental referrals are more likely to be used as a compensation strategy for limited opportunities due to regional conditions and lower levels of schooling and whether this search strategy entails a trade-off in terms of higher dropout risks. Our results indicate that in regions with poor regional labor market conditions, young people use parental referrals more often and also increasingly find apprenticeship places via referrals. Moreover, using referrals does not result in higher dropout risks. Lower-educated school leavers are also more likely to use referrals but they do not benefit from this search channel more than higher-educated youth. We conclude that social contacts can at least partly compensate for poor opportunities due to regional market conditions.

Labour Supply and Regional Labour Market Situation

Germany is particularly affected by demographic change. Therefore, increasing labour market participation is considered an important labour market policy objective because it can counteract shortages of labour supply due to the aging population. The scope for increasing labour force participation is not limited to certain groups of people. It also has a spatial dimension. This paper therefore analyses the regional differences in the labour market participation of men and women of different age groups at the level of German district regions. In particular, we examine regional imbalances in the regional variation of labour force participation. Further relations to regional variables are examined using multiple regressions. The results of the analysis could be interpreted according to the so-called discouragement hypothesis which suggests that unfavourable regional labour market conditions have a negative impact on regional labour force participation. For the regional wage level, only a minimal, mostly positive correlation with the labour force participation can be established, which can be interpreted by the mutually compensating effects of wages. The regional qualification level shows a positive correlation with the participation of middle-aged and older people in the labour market. Finally, further evidence highlights the importance of full-time childcare facilities for the labour force participation of women and, increasingly, men.

Employment Insurance: Interregional Redistribution versus Protection against Changing Labour Market Conditions

In this article, I quantitatively investigate the business cycle properties of the Canadian unemployment insurance system, Employment Insurance (EI). EI is designed in such a way that the generosity of benefits depends on regional labour market conditions and thus varies over time with the state of the macro economy as well as geographically depending on local unemployment rates. Simulations of a life-cycle model with heterogeneous agents and search frictions show that the welfare impact of the temporal changes in EI generosity is extremely small. It is dominated by the distributional effects of regional differentiation—that is, regions with persistently high unemployment rates benefit from more generous EI benefits because they are subsidized by regions with low unemployment.

Parental Unemployment and the Transition to Vocational Training in Germany: Interaction of Household and Regional Sources of Disadvantage

AbstractWe examine the impact of parental unemployment and regional labour market conditions on the probability of a successful transition from non-academic secondary schooling to vocational training in Germany, using data from the National Educational Panel Study and multilevel logistic regression models. Although widely regarded as a low-cost, low-risk and high-gain vocational path, we nevertheless find a clear negative effect of parental unemployment on adolescents’ chances of entering an apprenticeship contract. We test for poorer school performance, reduced household income, reduced self-esteem and limited access to labour market information as potential mediators of the effect, and only find support for some limited impact of economic deprivation. However, we also show that in families where one parent has experienced unemployment shortly before the child’s own transition from secondary schooling, students’ chances of a successful transition depend much more strongly on regional labour market conditions than in families without parental experiences of unemployment. Even in a regulated transition system like Germany’s, adverse labour market conditions thus reinforce the intergenerational disadvantages induced by parental unemployment.

Regional preferences for the living environment and mobility of researchers and general workers: the case of Korea

Since 2005, the Korean government has relocated national research institutes from the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA) to other parts of the nation. The main purpose of this relocation is to ameliorate disparities in population and economic power across regions. However, it turns out that only 27% of researchers in the SMA have actually relocated. This implies that researcher’s preference for a living environment should be reflected in the planning process. Hence, this paper attempts to specify the migration behaviors of researchers by comparing their preferences with those of general workers. Here, regional living environment is represented by a function of two attributes: regional labor market conditions and living environments. The paper shows that regional living environments have a more decisive impact on the migration of researchers, relative to general workers. Also, researchers are found to be slightly more sensitive to regional living environments especially crime than regional labor market conditions. Finally, the paper suggests a policy direction for balanced development among regions in Korea based on the results obtained.

On-the-Job Search, Mismatch and Worker Heterogeneity

This paper empirically examines the search behavior of currently employed workers to understand changes in on-the-job search across different types of employed individuals and varying labor market conditions. Using data from the American Time Use Survey, we estimate the responsiveness of workers with varying levels of productivity and job-match quality to regional labor market conditions. We find that those workers who are less-productive, mismatched in their current position, and high-productivity, mismatched workers are more likely to engage in search than other workers. These results have implications for models built on job mismatch, as well as for models seeking to explain increasing inequality and wage dispersion.

On-the-Job Search, Mismatch and Worker Heterogeneity

This paper empirically examines the search behavior of currently employed workers to understand changes in on-the-job search across different types of employed individuals and varying labor market conditions. Using data from the American Time Use Survey, we estimate the responsiveness of workers with varying levels of productivity and job-match quality to regional labor market conditions. We find that those workers who are less-productive, mismatched in their current position, and high-productivity, mismatched workers are more likely to engage in search than other workers. These results have implications for models built on job mismatch, as well as for models seeking to explain increasing inequality and wage dispersion.

Long-term Health Consequences of Adverse Labor Market Conditions at Time of Leaving Education: Evidence from West German Panel Data.

Using longitudinal survey data from the Socio-Economic Panel Study ( N = 3,003 respondents with 22,165 individual-year observations) and exploiting temporal and regional variation in state-level unemployment rates in West Germany, we explore differences in trajectories of individuals' self-rated health over a period of up to 23 years after leaving education under different regional labor market conditions. We find evidence for immediate positive effects of contextual unemployment when leaving education on individuals' health. We find no evidence for generally accelerated or decelerated health deterioration when leaving education in high-unemployment contexts. We find, however, that individual unemployment experience when leaving education is associated with worse health and with more accelerated health deterioration in high-unemployment contexts. The cumulative experience of unemployment after leaving education does not mediate the influence of early labor market experiences for long-term health outcomes. In addition, our analyses indicate no gender differences in these results.

VET or general education? Effects of regional opportunity structures on educational attainment in German-speaking Switzerland

Regional opportunity structures have received little attention in research on educational aspirations and attainment. This papers aim is to address whether regional opportunity structures affect educational attainment at the transition from lower to upper secondary education net of institutional and individual effects. Related with this issue we also ask how opportunity structures influence pupils’ educational attainment. We use data of the DAB panel study that contains information on pupils’ educational aspirations as well as their actual educational attainment immediately after as well as 15 months after leaving compulsory schooling (N = 2.192). In order to account for regional variation of the opportunity structures we construct one scaling variable based on principal component factor analysis and merge these with DAB data. In the scaling variable, various aspects of the regional labor market structures and conditions, as well as the diversity and extent of the supply of educational alternatives, are considered. Educational outcomes are analyzed using multinomial logistic regression models. Our results indicate, first, that the more extensive regional opportunity structures are, the higher the probability of pupils attending general education programs. In contrast, restricted opportunity structures increase pupils’ probability of attending VET. Second, regional opportunity structures are perceived, subjectively evaluated and organize a pupil’s set of feasible actions and educational attainment: on the one hand regional opportunity structures are correlated with pupils’ realistic educational aspirations. Once we control for educational aspirations the direct effects of opportunity structures on educational attainment after leaving compulsory schooling can be partially explained.

Erratum to: Spatial structure counts: the relevance of regional labour-market conditions for educational transitions to vocational training

Erratum to: Spatial structure counts: the relevance of regional labour-market conditions for educational transitions to vocational training

On the links between spatial variables and overeducation

ABSTRACTThis article considers the role that diverse spatial variables play in explaining overeducation. Unlike previous analyses of the Spanish case, we have directly tested the links between current mobility (commuting and migration) and overeducation, and in contrast to previous literature, we have included a direct measure of potential spatial flexibility at an individual level (worker availability to migrate, in response to the needs of his/her firm). Regional labour market conditions are also considered in the analysis. Our results show that the links between overeducation and spatial variables vary depending on the specific sub-group of wage earners considered, based on gender and education.

Do regional labour market conditions affect transitions into employment from health-related inactivity? Multilevel analysis of longitudinal UK Labour Force Survey data

BackgroundLong-term worklessness (unemployment or economic inactivity) is associated with adverse health outcomes and inequalities. Recent UK welfare reforms, alongside other return-to-work policies, have aimed to increase employment rates for people who have been out of the labour market because of sickness and disability. However, sickness benefit claimant counts vary substantially by geographical area and are highest in the post-industrial regions with the weakest economies. The aim of this study was to investigate whether local labour market conditions affect transitions from health-related inactivity into employment and compare them with transitions from unemployment to work. MethodsLongitudinal Labour Force Survey datasets were used to follow working age individuals resident in Great Britain over five consecutive quarters. Datasets from 1999–2013 were pooled (quarter 1 health-related inactivity group n=29 130, unemployed group n=14 873). Multilevel logistic regression models (region at level 3, year-within-region at level 2) were constructed with employment at quarter 5 (Q5) as the main outcome measure. Annual male regional employment rates were used as a proxy for local labour market conditions. FindingsTransitions into employment for the health-related inactivity group were rare (1057/29 130 [3·6%] at Q5) compared with the unemployed group (6255/14 873 [42·1%]). Regional variance was significant at baseline (p=0·03), and adding local employment rates as a fixed effect eliminated all observed area-level variability. A 1% increase in local employment rates was associated with an unadjusted odds ratio (OR) of transition to employment for the health-related inactivity group of 1·08 (95% CI 1·05–1·10) and for the unemployed group 1·08 (1·06–1·10). Adjustment for sex, age, education, and long-term health status had little effect (health-related inactivity group adjusted OR 1·07, 1·05–1·10). InterpretationLocal labour market conditions fully account for regional differences in transition rates from health-related inactivity into employment. Higher regional employment rates are associated with increased rates of return to employment, and this association is similar to that for unemployed groups; however, overall rates of transition were low compared with unemployed groups. One limitation of our study is loss to follow-up. Local labour market improvement could potentially increase return-to-work rates for the sick and disabled. Public health advocacy and collaborative action with policy makers in local and national government is needed to address this issue. FundingEC receives funding from the Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health Directorates (SPHSU1) as part of the Evaluating the Health Effects of Social Interventions programme at the Medical Research Council/Chief Scientist Office (MRC/CSO) Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK. AHL receives core funding from the UK Medical Research Council (MC_UU_12017/5) and the Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health Directorates (SPHSU2) as part of the Measuring Health programme at the MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow. FP receives core funding from the UK Medical Research Council (MC_UU_12017/7) as part of the Social Patterning of Health over the Lifecourse Programme at the MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow.

Asymmetric Effects of National-based Active Labour Market Policies

Altavilla C. and Caroleo F. E. Asymmetric effects of national-based active labour market policies, Regional Studies. Labour market policies settled at the national level imply a ‘one-size-fits-all’ labour market strategy. This strategy might not sufficiently take into account region-specific economic structures. Whether active labour market programmes might asymmetrically affect labour markets at the regional level is evaluated. The results for Italy suggest that while in the South employment is mainly driven by social and economic context variables, in the North the employment dynamics are significantly explained by policy interventions. Two policy implications are suggested. First, the success of active policies depends on the regional labour market conditions. Second, policy-makers should adjust labour policy strategy to regional economic structures.

Effects of Regional Labour Markets on Migration Flows, by Education Level

AbstractEuropean economies display large variations in unemployment rates across regions as well as between education groups. Insufficient labour mobility is widely believed to contribute to higher regional disparities and overall unemployment, but few studies have compared mobility responses of different education groups to regional shocks. This paper employs administrative registers covering the entire Norwegian population to compute annual time series from 1994 to 2004 of migration flows and regional labour market conditions by education level for 90 travel‐to‐work areas. We find that regional disparities in unemployment rates are decreasing in education level, whereas the response of migration flows to regional unemployment shocks is increasing in education level. The results suggest that low regional mobility of low‐educated workers may contribute to higher regional disparities and higher overall unemployment among the low educated.

Does Labour Mobility Reduce Disparities between Regional Labour Markets in Germany?

Niebuhr A., Granato N., Haas A. and Hamann S. Does labour mobility reduce disparities between regional labour markets in Germany?, Regional Studies. Differences in regional labour market conditions are still pronounced in Germany, especially between the Eastern and Western parts. Traditional neoclassical models imply that labour mobility should reduce such disparities. In contrast, models that include externalities or selective migration suggest that regional differences may well increase due to the interregional migration of workers. The impact of labour mobility on regional disparities in Germany between 1995 and 2005 is investigated. Considering migration as well as commuting, effects on regional wages and unemployment are estimated. The results suggest that labour mobility tends to reduce disparities; however, significant effects on unemployment disparities only are found. Niebuhr A., Granato N., Haas A. and Hamann S. 劳动力移动性是否减少了德国劳动力市场的差异？区域研究。 在德国区域劳动力市场间，尤其是东西部之间，仍然存在差异。传统新古典主义模型表明，劳动力的移动性应该会减少上述差异。而包含了外部性以及选择性移民的模型指出，区域差异可能会由于区域间移民或工人而增加。我们考察了1995－2005年间劳动力移动性对于德国区域差异的影响。在考虑移民以及通勤基础上，我们对于区域工资以及失业的作用都进行了评估。结果表明，劳动力移动性倾向于减少差异，但是却唯独加剧了失业差异。 区域差异 移民 通勤 德国 Niebuhr A., Granato N., Haas A. et Hamann S. La mobilité du travail, est-ce qu'elle réduit les écarts entre les marchés du travail régionaux en Allemagne. Regional Studies. Les différences des conditions des marchés du travail régionaux restent marqués en Allemagne, surtout à l'est du pays par rapport à l'ouest. Les modèles néoclassiques types laissent supposer que la mobilité du travail devrait réduire de tels écarts. Par contraste, les modèles qui incluent les effets externes ou la migration tendancieuse laissent supposer que les écarts régionaux pourraient se creuser à cause de la migration interrégionale des travailleurs. On examine l'impact de la mobilité du travail sur les écarts régionaux en Allemagne entre 1995 et 2005. En tenant compte de la migration ainsi que des trajets quotidiens pour se rendre au travail, on en évalue l'impact sur les salaires régionaux et le chômage. Les résultats laissent supposer que la mobilité du travail à tendance à réduire les écarts. Cependant, il ne s'avère importants effets que sur les écarts du chômage. Écarts régionaux Migration Trajets quotidiens pour se rendre au travail Allemagne Niebuhr A., Granato N., Haas A. und Hamann S. Verringern sich durch eine Mobilität der Arbeitnehmer die Disparitäten zwischen den regionalen Arbeitsmärkten in Deutschland?, Regional Studies. Die Unterschiede zwischen den Bedingungen auf den regionalen Arbeitsmärkten sind in Deutschland nach wie vor ausgeprägt, insbesondere bei einem Vergleich zwischen Ost und West. Bei den traditionellen neoklassischen Modellen wird implizit vorausgesetzt, dass sich solche Disparitäten durch eine Mobilität der Arbeitnehmer verringern sollte. Demgegenüber lassen Modelle, in denen Externalitäten oder eine selektive Migration berücksichtigt werden, darauf schließen, dass sich die regionalen Unterschiede durch eine interregionale Migration der Arbeitnehmer sogar noch verstärken können. Wir untersuchen die Auswirkung einer Mobilität der Arbeitnehmer auf die regionalen Disparitäten in Deutschland im Zeitraum von 1995 bis 2005. Unter Berücksichtigung von Migration und Berufspendlern werden die Auswirkungen auf das Lohnniveau und die Arbeitslosigkeit in den Regionen geschätzt. Aus den Ergebnissen geht hervor, dass eine Mobilität der Arbeitnehmer die Disparitäten tendenziell verringert; signifikante Auswirkungen werden jedoch nur im Bereich der Disparität der Arbeitslosigkeit festgestellt. Regionale Disparitäten Migration Berufspendlerverkehr Deutschland Niebuhr A., Granato N., Haas A. y Hamann S. ¿Reduce la movilidad laboral las desigualdades entre los mercados laborales regionales en Alemania?, Regional Studies. Las diferencias entre las condiciones de los mercados laborales regionales son todavía muy pronunciadas en Alemania, especialmente entre el este y el oeste. Con los modelos neoclásicos tradicionales se supone que la movilidad laboral debería reducir tales desigualdades. Sin embargo, los modelos que incluyen factores externos o migración selectiva indican que las diferencias regionales bien podrían aumentar debido a la migración interregional de los trabajadores. Aquí analizamos el efecto de la movilidad laboral en las desigualdades regionales en Alemania entre 1995 y 2005. Teniendo en cuenta la migración así como los desplazamientos al trabajo, calculamos los efectos en los salarios y el desempleo regionales. Los resultados indican que la movilidad laboral tiende a reducir las desigualdades, sin embargo, observamos solamente efectos significativos en las desigualdades de desempleo. Desigualdades regionales Migración Desplazamientos al trabajo Alemania

Long-term effects of labor market conditions on family formation for Japanese youth

This study aims to examine how each cohort’s family formation is affected by labor market conditions experienced in youth in Japan. Although the deterioration in youth employment opportunities has often been blamed for Japan’s declining fertility rate, the effect of slack labor market conditions on fertility is theoretically unclear. We estimate the effects of regional labor market conditions at entry to the labor market and contemporaneous conditions on fertility, controlling for nation-wide year effects and prefecture fixed effects, and find the following. First, high school-educated women who experienced a recession while entering the labor market are less likely to have children. In contrast, a recession rather increases fertility among college-educated women. When summed up, the aggregate impact of labor market conditions experienced in youth on fertility is weak. Second, the unemployment rate at entry to the labor market is positively correlated with the probability of having two or more children conditionally on having at least one child. Third, the contemporaneous unemployment rate is negatively correlated with marriage of women in the local labor market, although the correlation is weak and concentrated on the less educated group.

Personal Bankruptcy Law, Fresh Start and Judicial Practice

We explore in the French personal bankruptcy process the ways that judges perform with the possibility to discharge all the personal debts in exchange of liquidation of their assets. In particular, we give some empirical results on the determinants of judges’ selection between debtors whose debts are wiped out and debtors who have to reimburse their debts with their future incomes and current assets. Our main result is that French judges might prevent debtors from debt discharge when they are indebted to multiple creditors, especially financial ones. We give also empirical evidence that French judges would be sensitive when they make their decisions, to the regional labour market conditions as the higher the regional unemployment rate (in comparison to the mean rate), the higher is the likelihood of debt discharge. These empirical results are of prime interest to better understand how French personal bankruptcy laws perform in comparison to other national bankruptcy systems. Finally, our results can also serve to fill the gap between the bankruptcy rules and the practice of judges.

Why are East Germans Not More Mobile? Analyzing the Impact of Local Networks on Migration Intentions

Despite poor regional labour market conditions East Germans exhibit a rather limited willing-ness of leaving their home region. Applying an IV ordered probit approach and using the German Socio Economic Panel (SOEP), we test a local network explanation of lower spatial mobility. Firstly, we find that membership in locally bounded social networks reduces regional mobility. Secondly, we show that native East Germans are more invested in this type of social networks than West Germans. Thirdly, after controlling for the social network effect the mobility gap between East and West substantially reduces. Thus, low regional labour mobility of East Germans is for a significant part attributable to local ties binding people to their home region.