Regional Hydrological Models Research Articles

Environmental and biological controls on water and energy exchange in Florida scrub oak and pine flatwoods ecosystems

Scrub oak and pine flatwoods are two contrasting ecosystems common to the humid subtropical climate of Florida. Scrub oak forests are short in stature (<2 m) and occur on well‐drained sandy soils, and pine flatwoods are much taller and occur in areas with poorly drained soils. Eddy covariance measurements were made from January 2001 to February 2003 over a scrub oak forest and from January 2002 to February 2003 over an adjacent pine flatwoods located on in central Florida, USA, and exposed to similar atmospheric conditions to evaluate how the dynamics of latent heat (λE) and sensible heat (H) exchanges are affected by environmental and biological variables. Annual evapotranspiration (Et) for the scrub oak was 737 and 713 mm in 2001 and 2002, respectively. Et was comparatively higher, 812 mm, in 2002 at the pine flatwoods due to higher soil moisture and leaf area. In both ecosystems, springtime increases in λE coincided with increasing leaf area and evaporative demand. However, H was the main energy‐dissipating component in the spring due to the seasonal decrease in soil water content in the upper soil profile. In the spring, mean weekly Bowen ratio (β, i.e. H/λE) values reached 1.6 and 1.2 in the scrub oak and pine flatwoods, respectively. With the onset of the summertime rainy season, λE became the dominant energy flux and β fells to < 0.4. In both ecosystems, β was strongly controlled by the interaction between leaf area and soil moisture. The lowest values of the decoupling coefficient (Ω, 0.2 and 0.25 scrub oak and pine flatwoods, respectively) also occurred during the dry springtime period indicating that surface conductance (gs) was the mechanism controlling energy partitioning causing high β in both ecosystems. Et increases in the spring, when water in the upper soil profile was scarce and strongly retained by soil particles, indicated that plants in both ecosystems obtained water from deeper sources. The results from this research elucidate how energy partitioning differs and is regulated in contrasting ecosystems within the Florida landscape, which is important for refining regional hydrological and climate models.

SIMGRO, a GIS-Supported Regional Hydrologic Model in Irrigated Areas: Case Study in Mendoza, Argentina

The SIMGRO hydrologic simulation model was extended to include irrigation practice. It could then be used to evaluate the effect of hydrologic changes in an irrigated area in the province of Mendoza, Argentina where, given an average annual rainfall of approximately 200 mm, irrigation is crucial for agriculture. A storage dam was recently constructed in the Mendoza River to control the fluctuating river flow and to guarantee that the demand for water is met throughout the year. The dam will impact on parts of the irrigation system where groundwater levels are already high and salinization occurs. To evaluate these changes and possible mitigation measures, two performance indicators that consider groundwater and surface water were used: Relative evapotranspiration and the depleted fraction. Scenario runs revealed that the irrigation water losses from the canals affect the groundwater levels in the downstream part of the irrigated area; an increase in salinity was also revealed.

Sensitivity of wetland saturated hydraulic heads and water budgets to evapotranspiration

The sensitivity of wetland saturated hydraulic heads and water budgets to evapotranspiration (ET) was examined using a simplified hydrologic model and eight representations of ET. Estimates of ET that created the most reliable wetland saturated hydraulic heads and water budgets employed vegetation coefficients to correct potential ET, calculated by the Priestley-Taylor equation, to actual ET. The accuracy of simulated hydraulic heads generally improved by , 1 cm, however, when using the most reliable ET estimates based on vegetation coefficients. An ET estimate that used a regression-defined extinction depth created substantial errors in simulated water budgets. Specifically, the extinction-depth ET overestimated the annual actual ET by about 40% (400 mm). An ET approximation that overestimates actual ET by 400 mm annually applied in a regional hydrologic model over the 5400 km 2 area of Everglades National Park would underestimate the annual volume of water available for ground-water recharge and surface- water runoff to coastal estuaries by 2.3 billion m 3 . For comparison, this underestimation is about two thirds of the mean volume of water in Lake Okeechobee (3.8 billion m 3 ), the largest lake in Florida, and clearly demonstrates unbiased estimates of ET are necessary for reliably simulating wetland water budgets.

Hydrologic models of modern and fossil geothermal systems in the Great Basin: Genetic implications for epithermal Au-Ag and Carlin-type gold deposits

The Great Basin region in the western United States contains active geothermal systems, large epithermal Au-Ag deposits, and world-class Carlin-type gold deposits. Temperature profiles, fluid inclusion studies, and isotopic evidence suggest that modern and fossil hydrothermal systems associated with gold mineralization share many common features, including the absence of a clear magmatic fluid source, discharge areas restricted to fault zones, and remarkably high temperatures (>200 °C) at shallow depths (200–1500 m). While the plumbing of these systems varies, geochemical and isotopic data collected at the Dixie Valley and Beowawe geothermal systems suggest that fluid circulation along fault zones was relatively deep (>5 km) and comprised of relatively unexchanged Pleistocene meteoric water with small (<2.5‰) shifts from the meteoric water line (MWL). Many fossil ore-forming systems were also dominated by meteoric water, but usually exhibit δ18O fluid-rock interactions with larger shifts of 5‰–20‰ from the MWL. Here we present a suite of two-dimensional regional (100 km) and local (40–50 km) scale hydrologic models that we have used to study the plumbing of modern and Tertiary hydrothermal systems of the Great Basin. Geologically and geophysically consistent cross sections were used to generate somewhat idealized hydrogeologic models for these systems that include the most important faults, aquifers, and confining units in their approximate configurations. Multiple constraints were used, including enthalpy, δ18O, silica compositions of fluids and/or rocks, groundwater residence times, fluid inclusion homogenization temperatures, and apatite fission track anomalies. Our results suggest that these hydrothermal systems were driven by natural thermal convection along anisotropic, subvertical faults connected in many cases at depth by permeable aquifers within favorable lithostratigraphic horizons. Those with minimal fluid δ18O shifts are restricted to high-permeability fault zones and relatively small-scale (~5 km), single-pass flow systems (e.g., Beowawe). Those with intermediate to large isotopic shifts (e.g., epithermal and Carlin-type Au) had larger-scale (~15 km) loop convection cells with a greater component of flow through marine sedimentary rocks at lower water/rock ratios and greater endowments of gold. Enthalpy calculations constrain the duration of Carlin-type gold systems to probably <200 k.y. Shallow heat flow gradients and fluid silica concentrations suggest that the duration of the modern Beowawe system is <5 k.y. However, fluid flow at Beowawe during the Quaternary must have been episodic with a net duration of ~200 k.y. to account for the amount of silica in the sinter deposits. In the Carlin trend, fluid circulation extended down into Paleozoic siliciclastic rocks, which afforded more mixing with isotopically enriched higher enthalpy fluids. Computed fission track ages along the Carlin trend included the convective effects, and ranged between 91.6 and 35.3 Ma. Older fission track ages occurred in zones of groundwater recharge, and the younger ages occurred in discharge areas. This is largely consistent with fission track ages reported in recent studies. We found that either an amagmatic system with more permeable faults (10−11 m2) or a magmatic system with less permeable faults (10−13 m2) could account for the published isotopic and thermal data along the Carlin trend systems. Localized high heat flow beneath the Muleshoe fault was needed to match fluid inclusion temperatures at Mule Canyon. However, both magmatic and amagmatic scenarios require the existence of deep, permeable faults to bring hot fluids to the near surface.

The cold regions hydrological model: a platform for basing process representation and model structure on physical evidence

AbstractAfter a programme of integrated field and modelling research, hydrological processes of considerable uncertainty such as snow redistribution by wind, snow interception, sublimation, snowmelt, infiltration into frozen soils, hillslope water movement over permafrost, actual evaporation, and radiation exchange to complex surfaces have been described using physically based algorithms. The cold regions hydrological model (CRHM) platform, a flexible object‐oriented modelling system was devised to incorporate these algorithms and others and to connect them for purposes of simulating the cold regions hydrological cycle over small to medium sized basins. Landscape elements in CRHM can be linked episodically in process‐specific cascades via blowing snow transport, overland flow, organic layer subsurface flow, mineral interflow, groundwater flow, and streamflow. CRHM has a simple user interface but no provision for calibration; parameters and model structure are selected based on the understanding of the hydrological system; as such the model can be used both for prediction and for diagnosis of the adequacy of hydrological understanding. The model is described and demonstrated in basins from the semi‐arid prairie to boreal forest, mountain and muskeg regions of Canada where traditional hydrological models have great difficulty in describing hydrological phenomena. Some success is shown in simulating various elements of the hydrological cycle without calibration; this is encouraging for predicting hydrology in ungauged basins. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.

Snowmelt runoff sensitivity analysis to drought on the Canadian prairies

AbstractThe Canadian prairies are subject to severe extended droughts that are characterized by warmer temperatures, lower precipitation, lower soil moisture and sparser vegetation than normal conditions. The physically based cold regions hydrological modelling platform (CRHM) provides a possible means to analyse the sensitivity of prairie snowmelt processes to drought. The model was tested against detailed observations from Creighton Tributary of the Bad Lake Research Basin, Saskatchewan for the 1974–1975 and 1981–1982 hydrological years and found to perform satisfactorily in reproducing snow accumulation and streamflow without parameter calibration. By lowering winter precipitation and raising winter air temperature from actual meteorological observations and by lowering fall soil moisture and vegetation height parameters, the resulting drought condition sensitivity of snow accumulation, snow cover duration, sublimation of blowing snow, evaporation, infiltration into frozen soils, soil moisture storage change, snowmelt runoff and streamflow discharge was estimated. Snow accumulation and snow cover duration were relatively insensitive to meteorological changes associated with drought because the suppression of blowing snow sublimation moderated reduced snowfall. Infiltration, soil moisture storage change and evaporation were also relatively insensitive to drought conditions. However, lower precipitation, higher air temperature and lower initial soil moisture caused a marked reduction in snowmelt runoff. Similarly, large reductions in streamflow discharge were caused by diminished winter precipitation, increased winter air temperature and decreased fall soil moisture content. A scenario showed that a combination of these factors could cause complete cessation of spring streamflow even under moderate drought of 15% reduction in winter precipitation and 2·5 °C increase in winter mean air temperature. Results show that spring runoff and streamflow discharge are inherently unstable in the Canadian prairie environment, and so, magnify the impacts of drought, and through multi‐season storage and vegetation change can cause the impacts of hydrological drought to persist for several seasons after meteorological drought has ended. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.

The bias in GRACE estimates of continental water storage variations

Abstract. The estimation of terrestrial water storage variations at river basin scale is among the best documented applications of the GRACE (Gravity and Climate Experiment) satellite gravity mission. In particular, it is expected that GRACE closes the water balance at river basin scale and allows the verification, improvement and modeling of the related hydrological processes by combining GRACE amplitude estimates with hydrological models' output and in-situ data. When computing monthly mean storage variations from GRACE gravity field models, spatial filtering is mandatory to reduce GRACE errors, but at the same time yields biased amplitude estimates. The objective of this paper is three-fold. Firstly, we want to compute and analyze amplitude and time behaviour of the bias in GRACE estimates of monthly mean water storage variations for several target areas in Southern Africa. In particular, we want to know the relation between bias and the choice of the filter correlation length, the size of the target area, and the amplitude of mass variations inside and outside the target area. Secondly, we want to know to what extent the bias can be corrected for using a priori information about mass variations. Thirdly, we want to quantify errors in the estimated bias due to uncertainties in the a priori information about mass variations that are used to compute the bias. The target areas are located in Southern Africa around the Zambezi river basin. The latest release of monthly GRACE gravity field models have been used for the period from January 2003 until March 2006. An accurate and properly calibrated regional hydrological model has been developed for this area and its surroundings and provides the necessary a priori information about mass variations inside and outside the target areas. The main conclusion of the study is that spatial smoothing significantly biases GRACE estimates of the amplitude of annual and monthly mean water storage variations and that bias correction using existing hydrological models significantly improves the quality of GRACE estimates. For most of the practical applications, the bias will be positive, which implies that GRACE underestimates the amplitudes. The bias is mainly determined by the filter correlation length; in the case of 1000 km smoothing, which is shown to be an appropriate choice for the target areas, the annual bias attains values up to 50% of the annual storage; the monthly bias is even larger with a maximum value of 75% of the monthly storage. A priori information about mass variations can provide reasonably accurate estimates of the bias, which significantly improves the quality of GRACE water storage amplitudes. For the target areas in Southern Africa, we show that after bias correction, GRACE annual amplitudes differ between 0 and 30 mm from the output of a regional hydrological model, which is between 0% and 25% of the storage. Annual phase shifts are small, not exceeding 0.25 months, i.e. 7.5 deg. It is shown that after bias correction, the fit between GRACE and a hydrological model is overoptimistic, if the same hydrological model is used to estimate the bias and to compare with GRACE. If another hydrological model is used to compute the bias, the fit is less, although the improvement is still very significant compared with uncorrected GRACE estimates of water storage variations. Therefore, the proposed approach for bias correction works for the target areas subject to this study. It may also be an option for other target areas provided that some reasonable a priori information about water storage variations are available.

Development of a regional hydrologic soil model and application to the Beerze–Reusel drainage basin

The soil compartment is an important interface between the atmosphere and the subsurface hydrosphere. In this paper a conceptual approach for regional hydrologic soil modelling (RHSM) is presented, which provides two important qualities for modelling. First, the soil compartment is directly coupled to the atmosphere via the land surface and to the aquifers. Second, extremely fine (5 cm vertical) resolutions of the soil system can be realized at regional scales (several hundreds of km 2). This high-resolution modelling could be achieved by parallel computation techniques. The RHSM approach is applied to the Beerze–Reusel drainage basin, which belongs to the Meuse River basin. Moisture transport in the soil system was calculated with extremely high vertical resolution at a regional scale based on rainfall–evaporation data for the year 2000. As a result, highly resolved regional groundwater recharge pattern addressing the heterogeneity of soil systems could be determined.

Hydrological analysis for meeting climate change effects and European Water Framework Directive targets

The very wet conditions of recent years in Europe have made it clear that measures will have to be taken in this century to prevent flooding. The question is how to manage groundwater in order to reduce the anticipated increased hydrological risk. Furthermore the surface water quality in the Netherlands is insufficient to meet the standards of the Water Framework Directive. The required improvements are difficult to reach, because the diffuse loads of nutrients from agricultural land can not be easily reduced. This demands for innovative solutions with respect to improve the surface wa- ter quality. In this pilot study the focus is on the purification in reed fields and use it as well to reduce the effects of the anticipated climate change. An experimental evidence on a practical scale is lacking and therefore in the woodland area of Lankheet in the eastern part of the Netherlands, 3 ha has been planted with reeds to purify the river water. The aim of the study is further to store the purified water in the groundwater in order to reduce climate change effects. For the hydrological situation a scenario study was set up, using a regional hydrological model to simulate the groundwater flow together with the water flow in a network of water courses. The analysis will give knowledge on the multifunc- tional use of such a system.

Vazões mínimas e de referência para outorga na região do Alto Rio Grande, Minas Gerais

Analisou-se, neste trabalho, a aplicação de modelos de probabilidade às séries históricas de vazões mínimas diárias anuais e mínimas anuais das médias de 7 dias consecutivos, para 7 estações fluviométricas à montante do reservatório da Usina Hidrelétrica de Camargos - CEMIG (UHE - Camargos) e se desenvolveram modelos matemáticos para regionalização dessas vazões na região, considerando-se características morfométricas e climáticas das bacias de drenagem monitoradas. Avaliou-se, ainda, de forma preliminar, a disponibilidade hídrica para a agricultura irrigada, tomando-se como referência as vazões Q7,10 e Q90% e se aplicaram os modelos de probabilidade Log-normal 3 parâmetros, Weibull e Gumbel, às séries históricas de vazões. Os modelos de regionalização foram gerados por regressão múltipla linear, ajustados pelo método dos mínimos quadrados e procedimento "backward" para seleção de variáveis significativas. As vazões mínima diária anual e média mínima de 7 dias, foram melhor representadas pelo modelo de probabilidades Log-normal 3 parâmetros. Os modelos de regionalização produziram bons ajustes estatísticos. O estudo indicou, ainda, a necessidade de um aprofundamento maior para a fixação dos critérios de outorga.

Isotopic characteristics of precipitation in Slovenia and Croatia: Comparison of continental and maritime stations

Summary The stable isotopic composition of hydrogen and oxygen (δ2H and δ18O) and tritium activity (3H) were monitored in monthly precipitation at two continental stations (Ljubljana, Zagreb) and six stations along the eastern Adriatic coasts of Slovenia and Croatia in the period 2001–2003. Mean air temperatures and amount of precipitation were also recorded. Distinct differences in both meteorological and isotopic data between the continental and maritime stations were observed. Seasonal variations in δ18O are smaller at the maritime stations than at the continental ones due to smaller seasonal temperature variations. A good correlation between δ18O and δ2H was obtained for each station, and the local meteoric water lines are close to the Global Meteoric Water Line, with a decreasing trend of slope for the south-Adriatic stations. Good correlations between δ18O in monthly precipitation and mean monthly air temperature were observed at all stations. The slope of δ18O vs. T varied between 0.37‰ °C−1 and 0.15‰ °C−1. Mean 3H activity and seasonal variation of 3H activity are smaller at maritime stations than at continental ones. Additionally, 3H activity decreases in the NW–SE direction of the Adriatic coast. The study of spatial variations over this relatively small area rich in geographical and climatic diversities showed the complexity of the isotopic composition of precipitation and the isotopic data obtained for eight stations, most of them in the karstic area along the Adriatic coast, and gave valuable information for regional hydrological investigations and modelling of isotope variability over the Mediterranean basin.

Comparison of two model approaches in the Zambezi river basin with regard to model reliability and identifiability

Abstract. Variations of water stocks in the upper Zambezi river basin have been determined by 2 different hydrological modelling approaches. The purpose was to provide preliminary terrestrial storage estimates in the upper Zambezi, which will be compared with estimates derived from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) in a future study. The first modelling approach is GIS-based, distributed and conceptual (STREAM). The second approach uses Lumped Elementary Watersheds identified and modelled conceptually (LEW). The STREAM model structure has been assessed using GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) a posteriori to determine parameter identifiability. The LEW approach could, in addition, be tested for model structure, because computational efforts of LEW are low. Both models are threshold models, where the non-linear behaviour of the Zambezi river basin is explained by a combination of thresholds and linear reservoirs. The models were forced by time series of gauged and interpolated rainfall. Where available, runoff station data was used to calibrate the models. Ungauged watersheds were generally given the same parameter sets as their neighbouring calibrated watersheds. It appeared that the LEW model structure could be improved by applying GLUE iteratively. Eventually, it led to better identifiability of parameters and consequently a better model structure than the STREAM model. Hence, the final model structure obtained better represents the true hydrology. After calibration, both models show a comparable efficiency in representing discharge. However the LEW model shows a far greater storage amplitude than the STREAM model. This emphasizes the storage uncertainty related to hydrological modelling in data-scarce environments such as the Zambezi river basin. It underlines the need and potential for independent observations of terrestrial storage to enhance our understanding and modelling capacity of the hydrological processes. GRACE could provide orthogonal information that can help to constrain and further enhance our models. In the near future, other remotely sensed data sources will be used to force modelling efforts of the Zambezi (e.g. satellite rainfall estimates) and to identify individual storage components in the GRACE observations (e.g. altimeter lake levels and microwave soil moisture). Ultimately, this will create possibilities for state updating of regional hydrological models using GRACE.

A semi-empirical approach for surface soil water content estimation from radar data without a-priori information on surface roughness

In this study, the spatial distribution of soil water content in an agricultural area of 30 km 2 in Southern Italy has been estimated by using high-resolution space-borne Synthetic Aperture Radar data. Multi-polarised SAR images acquired during the SIR-C mission in April 1994 have been analysed by using the semi-empirical surface backscattering model derived by Oh, Y., Sarabandi K., Ulaby F.T., 1992. An empirical model and an inversion technique for radar scattering from bare soil surface. IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sensing, 30(2), 370381. A site-specific calibration procedure of the cited model has been proposed to derive soil dielectric constant values without a-priori information on the surface roughness by using ground measurements on a regular grid in two bare-soil fields. The calibrated model applied to L-band data reproduced quite satisfactorily the spatial variability of the soil dielectric constant in the two fields. Diversely, C-band data gave poor results. Successively, the calibrated Oh's model was applied to estimate the soil dielectric constant in bare soil and low vegetation fields of the entire irrigation district, where the output of a distributed simulation model of soil water balance were available. From the comparison between the Oh's backscattering model and the soil water balance model, it was confirmed that, under bare soil conditions, the values of soil water content near the soil surface estimated from SIR-C L-band data differ by ±20% from the simulated ones. Furthermore, as expected, the presence of a fractional vegetation cover, even if small, reduced the sensitivity of radar backscattering to soil moisture. The results of this study confirmed that L-band SAR data represent a minimum requirement for possible assimilation schemes in regional hydrological modelling.

Spatial and temporal patterns of remotely-sensed and field-measured rainfall in southern California

Quantification of spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall is an important step toward developing regional hydrological models. However, traditionally used rain gauge data are sparse and do not always provide adequate spatial representation of rainfall. In this study, we evaluated the daily 1-degree resolution remotely-sensed atmospheric precipitation data provided by Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) as an alternative to rain gauge-measured data. We analyzed data from the watersheds of southern California during the period of 1996–2003, focusing on the comparison of patterns of spatial, seasonal, and interannual rainfall dynamics. We used Empirical Orthogonal Functions to discern the patterns of precipitation and atmospheric circulation at different time scales, from synoptic to interannual. The correlation between the daily rain gauge-measured and remotely-sensed precipitation was poor and the resulting patterns of remotely-sensed precipitation are different than the temporal patterns of precipitation accumulated by rain gauges. These differences likely result from the fact that the precipitable water concentration measured by satellites is not always highly correlated to rainfall reaching the earth surface. Differences in the spatial resolution and coverage of the two methods and the differential influence of orographic effects and wind patterns on each also contribute to low correlations. We conclude that daily remotely-sensed precipitation produced at GPCP is not currently appropriate for use in assessing fine-scale hydrological processes in arid zones like southern California, and would not be a recommended surrogate for event-based hydrologic modeling. At the same time, the interannual variabilities of remotely-sensed and gauge-measured precipitation were highly correlated and the regional patterns of gauge-measured and remotely-sensed precipitation variability were similar; though the total precipitation estimated from satellite data was substantially lower than the gauge-measured data. Therefore, remotely-sensed precipitation data may be appropriate for use in long-term regional hydrologic or climate modeling focused on trends and patterns of rainfall in southern California. Both data sets showed that precipitation generally decreases from the northern to the southern watersheds. At interannual time-scale, the rainfall is related to the ENSO cycle. At synoptic time-scales, the rainfall patterns in southern California result from atmospheric moisture transport from the south–southwest.

Spatial planning for adapting to climate change

During the past decades human interference in regional hydrologic systems has intensified. These systems act as an integrating medium. They link climate, human activities and ecologic processes through groundwater and surface water interactions. For simulating these linkages an integrated regional hydrologic model has been coupled to an ecologic evaluation model. The simulated ecologic effects of climate change on mesotrophic riverine grasslands are clearly positive. Simulation results also indicate a high sensitivity of the peak discharges to the precipitation. For modelling the long-term development of land use and water management an integrated 'bio-economic' model has been constructed. It includes a model for the development of agriculture. Results for the autonomous development in reaction to climate change indicate a strong increase of field drainage by agriculture. This development would substantially reduce the predicted positive effects of climate change on riverine grasslands. The challenge is to guide regional developments in such a manner that opportunities for improving nature are not lost, but that at the same time the peak discharges are kept under control. Flow retardation in the 'fine arteries' of the upstream areas appear to be a viable option for the latter. The bio-economic model can provide help in anticipating on climate change through spatial planning.

A simplified approach to implement forest eco-hydrological properties in regional hydrological modelling

The topic of this paper is a simplified model for simulating the hydrological properties of forest stands based on a robust computation of the temporal LAI (leaf area index) dynamics. The approach allows the simulation of all hydrologically relevant processes. It includes interception of precipitation and transpiration of forest stands with and without groundwater in the rooting zone. The model also considers phenology, mortality and simple management practice. It was implemented as a module in the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model). The approach was tested on Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris) and common oak ( Quercus robur and Q. petraea). The results demonstrate a good simulation of annual biomass increase and LAI and satisfactory simulation of litter production (annual mean value). A comparison of the date of May sprout for Scots pine and leaf unfolding for Oak (1980–1990) with observed data of the DWD (German Weather Service) shows a good reproduction of the temporal dynamic. The daily simulation of transpiration shows an excellent correlation of r = 0.81 for the year 1998 but only r = 0.65 for 1999. The interception losses were also simulated and compared with weekly observed data showing satisfactory results in the vegetation periods and annual sums, but worse agreement in autumn and spring time. A regional assessment study was done in the federal state of Brandenburg (Germany) to test the applicability and multi-criteria evaluation capabilities of the approach on the landscape and catchments scale using forest data, daily river discharge and regional water balance.

Regional hydrological modelling in Benin (West Africa): Uncertainty issues versus scenarios of expected future environmental change

The conceptual, hydrological UHP model was used to calculate regional and seasonal to long-term water fluxes of several meso-scale catchments within the upper Ouémé basin in central Benin. To analyse the quality of the simulations in addition to standard model validation techniques (e.g., split sampling test, multi-site and multi-scale validation), different methods were applied to assess the orders of magnitude of input data uncertainty and model uncertainty (e.g., Monte-Carlo-analysis, rainfall data analysis). To evaluate the suitability of the model to be used for environmental change studies, finally the detected uncertainties were set into relation to the effects of environmental change scenarios for different regional scale catchments in central Benin. Main result was the fact that all “signal-to-noise ratios” of model-scenario-uncertainty combinations were positive and most of the ratios were even high. Thus on the seasonal time scale, the environmental effects calculated by the model were significantly larger than the uncertainties caused by imperfect model parameters and input data. Nevertheless uncertainties were detected to have a potentially significant impact on the simulation results (esp. on the event scale) although the model calculates the water fluxes of the subhumid catchments well with regard to several statistical quality measures (water balance, model efficiency, coefficient of variation, etc.). Dominating uncertainties are the input data (rainfall in particular), which may cause both errors in the calculated hydrological processes at the event scale and biases in the long-term water balance. Therefore implausible data sets need to be rejected. With regard to the scenarios all environmental changes may cause significant effects on the long-term water balance: land use change, soil degradation and decreasing rainfall. Concerning the total annual stream flow the realistic scenarios of an expected rainfall decrease and an increasing soil degradation due to land use change in the next 20 years partly leads to a compensation of the individual effects (e.g., decrease caused by decreasing rainfall versus increase caused by decreasing soil storage capacity and increasing curve number), while other water related indicators (e.g., the length of the vegetation period defined by the time of exceeding a certain root zone soil moisture; annual actual evapotranspiration as an indicator for plant productivity) decrease significantly.

From local hydrological process analysis to regional hydrological model application in Benin: Concept, results and perspectives

This paper presents the concept, first results and perspectives of the hydrological sub-project of the IMPETUS-Benin project which is part of the GLOWA program funded by the German ministry of education and research. In addition to the research concept, first results on field hydrology, pedology, hydrogeology and hydrological modelling are presented, focusing on the understanding of the actual hydrological processes. For analysing the processes a 30 km 2 catchment acting as a super test site was chosen which is assumed to be representative for the entire catchment of about 15,000 km 2. First results of the field investigations show that infiltration, runoff generation and soil erosion strongly depend on land cover and land use which again influence the soil properties significantly. A conceptual hydrogeological model has been developed summarising the process knowledge on runoff generation and subsurface hydrological processes. This concept model shows a dominance of fast runoff components (surface runoff and interflow), a groundwater recharge along preferential flow paths, temporary interaction between surface and groundwater and separate groundwater systems on different scales (shallow, temporary groundwater on local scale and permanent, deep groundwater on regional scale). The findings of intensive measurement campaigns on soil hydrology, groundwater dynamics and soil erosion have been integrated into different, scale-dependent hydrological modelling concepts applied at different scales in the target region (upper Ouémé catchment in Benin, about 15,000 km 2). The models have been applied and successfully validated. They will be used for integrated scenario analyses in the forthcoming project phase to assess the impacts of global change on the regional water cycle and on typical problem complexes such as food security in West African countries.

Developing a Watershed Characteristics Database to Improve Low Streamflow Prediction

Information regarding topographic, meteorologic, geologic, and geomorphic characteristics is increasingly available in spa- tially explicit digital formats. Of interest is whether enhanced spatial processing of newly available digital grids can lead to new estimators of watershed characteristics which may in turn, improve our ability to predict extreme hydrologic events. Regional hydrologic models of low-flow processes often produce estimators with unacceptably large errors. Using a continuous digital elevation model ~DEM! of the conterminous United States, watershed boundaries were developed for the streamflow gauges of the USGS's Hydro-Climatic Data Network. Using these watershed boundaries, many watershed characteristics were developed from digital grids, including: the original DEM, the USDA's State Soil Geographic grids, and the Spatial Climate Analysis Service's orographically weighted precipitation and temperature grids of varying spatial and temporal resolution. Digital processing of grids leads to improvements in estimation and reproducibility of spatial statistics over traditional manual processing approaches. Low-flow regional regression models were developed for regions across the conterminous United States. Inclusion of the new watershed characteristics led to improvements in regional regression models for all regions. The inclusion of hydrogeologic indices, in particular a new smoothed baseflow recession constant estimator, led to dramatic improvements in low-flow prediction.

Integrating groundwater dynamics in regional hydrological modelling

The paper presents an integrated catchment model and a method with which it is possible to analyse local water table dynamics inside subbasins along with river flow on the regional scale. A simple but comprehensive mechanistic groundwater module coupled with the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model), which integrates hydrological processes, vegetation, erosion and nutrient dynamics at the watershed scale, was used in the study. The reliability of the model results was tested under well defined boundary conditions by comparing the results with those from a two dimensional numeric groundwater model under steady-state and transient conditions as well as with observed data for two meso-scale basins, using contour maps of the long term mean water table, observed groundwater level data in wells and observed river discharge. Especially in lowland catchments, where the water table is relatively shallow, the dynamics of river discharge are mainly influenced by changes in groundwater contribution to river flow. However, a correct reproduction of river discharge by hydrological models does not guarantee the adequacy of simulated spatio-temporal dynamics of soil moisture, water fluxes and groundwater in the basin. But even though the primary purpose of distributed hydrological models is to reproduce river discharge and water fluxes in the entire catchment, they are often validated using only the observed river discharge at the basin outlet for comparisons. The additional use of groundwater observations for model validation can serve as a measure to overcome the problem. The study area is located in the lowland part of the Elbe river basin, which is representative for semi-humid landscapes in Europe, where water availability during the summer season is the main limiting factor for plant growth and crop yields. The importance of adequate reproduction of the groundwater dynamics is illustrated in an investigation of a decreasing trend in regional groundwater level.