Regional Geohazards Research Articles

Feature Engineering of Geohazard Susceptibility Analysis Based on the Random Forest Algorithm: Taking Tianshui City, Gansu Province, as an Example

In this paper, Feature Engineering (FE) was applied to Landslide Susceptibility Mapping (LSM), while the most suitable conditioning feature dataset and analysis method were tested and analyzed. Tianshui city was taken as the study area, three types of geohazard (collapse, landslide, and unstable slopes) were used, while a total of twenty-three conditioning features were generated; two dimensionless methods (normalization and standardization) were tested afterward. Four Random-Forest-based (RF-based) feature selection methods using different indicators (Gini Impurity, GI; Out of Bag Accuracy, OOBA) were proposed and tested separately. The LSMs of four models were carried out under the guidance results of FE, namely Classification and Regression Tree (CART), Random Forest (RF), Logistic Regression (LR), and Support Vector Machine for Classification (SVC). For feature enhancement, standardization had significant advantages over normalization. All RF-based methods were proven effective, lifting the AUC by 0.01~0.02. The RF model achieved the highest LSM accuracies, respectively, 0.949 (landslide), 0.957, and 0.949 (unstable slopes), improved by 0.008 (landslide), 0.005 (collapse), and 0.013 (unstable slopes). This proved that the FE helped to improve LSM and can help to decide the dominant conditioning factors for regional geohazards.

Glacier thickness and ice volume of the Northern Andes

Tropical glacier melt provides valuable water to surrounding communities, but climate change is projected to cause the demise of many of these glaciers within the coming century. Understanding the future of tropical glaciers requires a detailed record of their thicknesses and volumes, which is currently lacking in the Northern Andes. We calculate present-day (2015–2021) ice-thicknesses for all glaciers in Colombia and Ecuador using six different methods, and combine these into multi-model ensemble mean ice thickness and volume maps. We compare our results against available field-based measurements, and show that current ice volumes in Ecuador and Colombia are 2.49 ± 0.25 km3 and 1.68 ± 0.24 km3 respectively. We detected no motion on any remaining ice in Venezuela. The overall ice volume in the region, 4.17 ± 0.35 km3, is half of the previous best estimate of 8.11 km3. These data can be used to better evaluate the status and distribution of water resources, as input for models of future glacier change, and to assess regional geohazards associated with ice-clad volcanoes.

Characterizing the Topographic Changes and Land Subsidence Associated with the Mountain Excavation and City Construction on the Chinese Loess Plateau

A mega project, Mountain Excavation and City Construction (MECC), was launched in the hilly and gully region of the Chinese Loess Plateau in 2012, in order to address the shortage of available land and create new flat land for urban construction. However, large-scale land creation and urban expansion significantly alters the local geological environment, leading to severe ground deformation. This study investigated the topographic changes, ground deformation, and their interactions due to the MECC project in the Yan’an New District (YND). First, new surface elevations were generated using ZiYuan-3 (ZY-3) stereo images acquired after the construction in order to map the local topographic changes and the fill thickness associated with the MECC project. Then, the interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) time series and 32 Sentinel-1A images were used to assess the spatial patterns of the ground deformation in the YND during the postconstruction period (2017–2018). By combining the InSAR-derived results and topographic change features, the relationship between the ground deformation and large-scale land creation was further analyzed. The results indicated that the MECC project in the YND has created over 22 km2 of flat land, including 10.8 km2 of filled area, with a maximum fill thickness of ~110 m. Significant uneven ground deformation was detected in the land-creation area, with a maximum subsidence rate of approximately 121 mm/year, which was consistent with the field survey. The strong correlation between the observed subsidence patterns and the land creation project suggested that this recorded uneven subsidence was primarily related to the spatial distribution of the filling works, along with the changes in the thickness and geotechnical properties of the filled loess; moreover, rapid urbanization, such as road construction, can accelerate the subsidence process. These findings can guide improvements in urban planning and the mitigation of geohazards in regions experiencing large-scale land construction.

Effects of land use on groundwater recharge of a loess terrace under long-term irrigation

Understanding the relation between land use and groundwater recharge is of direct interest in areas that are prone to geohazards. This study was performed to characterize the effects of land use on groundwater table (GWT) distribution in the Heifangtai (HFT) loess terrace under long-term flood irrigation, as irrigation intensity was governed by the crop types. In light of the regional temperature-vegetable dryness index (TVDI) and optical images obtained in different seasons over four years, the dataset incorporated the growth cycles of the local crops, which in turn improved the workload and accuracy of land use detection. Irrigation intensities for different crops were recorded during field investigations. A total of 26 electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) profiles were conducted to estimate the GWT distribution of HFT terrace, which was further utilized to reveal the relation between land use (i.e. irrigation) and GWT fluctuations. The results indicated that high local GWT was associated with vegetable fields which had the highest irrigation intensity, and by contrast, low local GWT was attributed to the perennial fruit tree fields with the lowest irrigation intensity. The discharge was monitored intermittently for over three years to analyze the effect on the local GWT close to margin of HFT. The result showed a strong correlation between spring discharge and GWT fluctuations along the margin of HFT, indicating that groundwater recharge was affected by both irrigation and spring discharges. These results suggested that incorporating growth cycles of crops can effectively facilitate the interpretation of remote sensing data for land use detection, and the results can provide useful guidance for improving irrigation programs and for alleviating geohazards in regions that are under long-term irrigation.

Chapter 6 Material properties and geohazards

Abstract In engineering terms, all materials deposited as a result of glacial and periglacial processes are transported soils. Many of these deposits have engineering characteristics that differ from those of water-lain sediments. In the UK, the most extensive glacial and periglacial deposits are tills. Previously, engineering geologists have classified them geotechnically as lodgement, melt-out, flow and deformation tills, or as variants of these. However, in this book tills have been reclassified as: subglacial traction till, glaciotectonite and supraglacial mass-flow diamicton/glaciogenic debris-flow deposits (see Chapter 4, Sections 4.1–4.3). Because this classification is new, it is not possible to relate geotechnical properties and characteristics to the subdivisions of the new classification. Consequently, the domain/stratigraphic classification, recently developed by the British Geological Survey and others, has been used and their geotechnical properties and characteristics are discussed on this basis. The geotechnical properties and characteristics of the other main glacial and periglacial deposits are also discussed. For some of these (e.g. glaciolacustrine deposits, quick clays and loess), geohazards relating to the lithology and/or fabric of the deposit are discussed along with their properties. Other geohazards that do not relate to lithology and/or fabric are discussed separately as either local or regional geohazards. In some cases (e.g. glaciofluvial sands and gravels), the geotechnical properties and behaviour are similar to sediments deposited under different climatic conditions; these deposits are therefore not discussed at length. Similarly, some of the local geohazards that are found associated with glacial and periglacial deposits relate to current climatic conditions and are not discussed here. Examples include landsliding and highly compressible organic soils (peats).

Surprise and Uncertainty—Framing Regional Geohazards in the Theory of Complexity

The paper analyzes the concepts of uncertainty and surprise as key variables of a socio-ecological system’s behavior in the context of the theory of complexity. Experiences from the past have shown that living with uncertainty is part of our daily life and surprises are only surprising because our perspective of system trajectories is basically linear and non-dynamic. The future of humanity is dependent on the understanding of the system’s behavior and needs a change in perspective of linearity to non-linearity and from the planning imperative to a management hedging uncertainty and surprise. In the context of humanity’s future, the theory of complexity offers a new perspective on system trajectories and their understanding of surprises and uncertainty. There is a need for a Gestaltwechsel—a change in perception—which helps to see things differently and fosters the search for new answers to emerging questions at the human-nature interface. Drawing on the case study of hazard management the paper will explain the necessity of analysis system’s behavior and the taking into account of multi-agent behavior on the micro level which led to emergent behavior on the macro-level of the system. Regional geohazards are explained as the regional impact of an uncontrolled risk based on a state of a natural feature that has a direct impact on a regional population being affected by the appearance of a hazard and its development into damage. By acting in space, time and connectivity, people construct hazardscapes and change risk into regional geohazards. This concept shows relevance for future mitigation and adaptation measures. The theory of complexity can help in engendering the necessary shift in perspective. What is non-linear dynamic thinking as suggested by the theory of complexity? Why is the consideration of the system’s behavior crucial and not just the number of system’s elements? What is the role of agents in these systems? In addition, there are practical implications too: What does this shift in perspective mean for future hazard management and the future of humanity?