Regional Development Scenarios Research Articles

Prediction of urban residential energy consumption intensity in China toward 2060 under regional development scenarios

With global commitments to carbon neutrality, restraining the rapid growth of building energy consumption becomes crucial. Several building energy consumption predictions for China were conducted, but the regional heterogeneity and urban residentials’ special characteristics were not considered in these models. Thus, a “bottom-up” physical model with regional scenario assumptions was proposed for existing, newly-built, and renovated urban residential energy consumption prediction in five building thermal zones in China. Large-scale investigations were conducted for regional energy-use status and energy-use-related advanced technology development status both in China and developed countries. Regarding building envelope thermal properties, types, possession quantities, and performance of energy-use equipment, occupant energy-use behavior, and renewable energy utilization, Benchmark (B), Medium control (M), and Strict control (S) scenarios were assumed considering the spatial differences among each zone and temporal difference between 2020 and 2060. Results showed fluctuating trends, but all zones peak in 2035 under the B scenario, and before 2025 under the M and S scenarios. The intensity for newly-built urban residentials under the S scenarios in Severe cold, Cold, Hot Summer and Cold Winter, Hot Summer and Warm Winter, and Mild zones by 2060 are 4.07 kgce/(m2·a), 6.8 kgce/(m2·a), 6.53 kgce/(m2·a), 6.5 kgce/(m2·a), and 5.21 kgce/(m2·a), respectively.

Understanding the Food‐Energy‐Water Nexus in Mixed Irrigation Regimes Using a Regional Hydroeconomic Optimization Modeling Framework

AbstractUnderstanding the nexus between food, energy, and water systems (FEW) is critical for basins with intensive agricultural water use as they face significant challenges under changing climate and regional development. We investigate the food, energy, and water nexus through a regional hydroeconomic optimization (RHEO) modeling framework. The crop production in RHEO is estimated through a hierarchical regression model developed using a biophysical model, AquaCropOS, forced with daily climatic inputs. Incorporating the hierarchical model within the RHEO also reduces the computation time by enabling parallel programming within the AquaCropOS and facilitates mixed irrigation—rainfed, fully irrigated and deficit irrigation—strategies. To demonstrate the RHEO framework, we considered a groundwater‐dominated basin, South Flint River Basin, Georgia, for developing mixed irrigation strategies over 31 years. Our analyses show that optimal deficit irrigation is economically better than full irrigation, which increases the groundwater pumping cost. Thus, considering deficit irrigation in a groundwater‐dominated basin reduces the water, carbon, and energy footprints, thereby reducing FEW vulnerability. The RHEO also could be employed for analyzing FEW nexus under potential climate change and future regional development scenarios.

The sustainability debate on plastics: Cradle to grave Life Cycle Assessment and Techno-Economical Analysis of PP and PLA polymers with a “Polluter Pays Principle” perspective

We have studied the impacts of polypropylene (PP) and poly lactic acid (PLA) to quantify the differences between fossil-based and first generation biosourced plastics. Preliminary results on impact assessment from manufacturing stages suggested that the smaller the lot size and part weight of each injection molded plastic material, the higher the economic and environmental impacts. When lot size and part weight were equal, PLA performed better than PP. In three regional development scenarios, we have studied the impacts of end-of-life (EOL) options for smaller-sized and potentially landfilled single-use food packaging materials in town (population <10 k), city (population 30–250 k), and province (population >1 M) regional scales. The impacts of the change from PP to PLA as well as landfill (L) and open incineration (OI) to other EOL options, such as recycling (R), composting (CP), and incineration with energy recovery (IwE), were studied. Impacts of toxic damages are calculated as their impact on the healthcare sector. Thus, microplastics (MP) as a vector of bioaccumulation of toxins, such as dioxins, resulted in 16,5 $/kg MP on a province scale. In the Province scenario, where L PP (90%), a mix of R and OI PP was changed to a mix of R and CP PLA resulting in 63% economic gain and 39% lower global warming potential (GWP). In the City scenario, where L PP was changed to a mix of R PP (50%), IwE PP (25%), and IwE PLA (25%) resulting in 22% economic gain and 26% lower GWP. However, the higher the waste management activities such as sorting and waste processing, the higher the high-carcinogens (+137%), high non-carcinogens (+456%), and toxic release for total air (+9%) emissions. Future work should be done to study the impacts of other toxic compounds such as food contact chemicals to compare different food packaging materials to obtain more comprehensive results.

Цифровизация целеполагания: от формирования целевого плана до разработки сценария развития

The growing dynamics of economic processes, uncertainty and complex interconnectedness of development goals require an early transfer of the process of strategic goal-setting of regional development into the format of digital models that would make it possible to recalculate the quantitative parameters of the strategy in case of any change in target guidelines, resource constraints and parameters of the external environment. This action would sufficiently increase the efficiency of the entire strategizing process. The most important tasks in this case are the development of an end-to-end methodology and the digitization of the processes of development of a consistent system of targets and their attainability assessment. The article attempts to document the solution of the tasks of goal-setting and forecasting and to provide users with digital tools to facilitate the passage of these stages in the process of strategic planning of regional development. An approach to achieving the statesd goals is suggested within the framework of problem solution of the best distribution of produced goods between accumulation and consumption. It is shown that the target indicators used in strategic planning should be divided into basic, supporting and derived ones. In this approach, target values should only be set for the basic indicators. As for the supporting indicators the target values should be calculated when solving the task of economic capacity development which is necessary and sufficient to ensure the target values of baseline indicators. The informational technology for the construction of regional development scenario is based on the SNA methodology and computable models of general equilibrium leading to the achievement of the goals set. The technology presents a system of digital models that provide a quantitative description of the results of strategic planning as a single process which starts from the target plan and ends by the development scenario. The core of the system of models is a digital model of the region (constituent entity of the Russian Federation), built within the class of computable general equilibrium models. The developed methods and tools will be useful for developers of regional strategies, since at the goal-setting stage they allow to balance strategic goals and avoid irreconcilable contradictions in the process of target setting.

SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT POLICY STRATEGY OF COASTAL TOURISM IN PANGANDARAN DISTRICT, INDONESIA

One of the crucial coastal tourism is a region of Pangandaran District coastal tourism. The area represented a coastal region that has various exploiting characteristics and interconnected one another. The primary purpose of this research is to analyze the sustainable management policy strategy of coastal tourism. To reach the especial target, hence there are some activities which require to be conducted as a particular target that is (1) identifying determinant in the future, (2) determining strategic target and importance of the main stakeholder ; and (3) defining and describe of evolution possibility of future. The prospective analysis was conducted to yield a sustainable regional development scenario of coastal tourism in Pangandaran District, with determining key factors that affect system performance. From various possibilities that could happen, is formulated three regional development scenario of Pangandaran District coastal tourism to come, that are : 1) Conservative - Pessimistic by conducting to repair of main key factor only, 2) Moderate - Optimistic by conducting repair about 50 % of the primary key attribute (factor), 3) Progressive - Optimistic by conducting repair to entire key attribute (factor). To increase sustainable status forwards (long-period), a scenario that must be conducted to increase the regional sustainable development status of the coastal of Pangandaran District is Progressive – Optimistic by conducting repair by totally to all sensitive attribute so that all dimension become sustainable for coastal region development.

Estimating metal loading into the sea from tidal rivers using total suspended solids and water quality models.

Metals are mainly transported with suspended sediments in tidal rivers, and it is difficult to describe the transformation process of metals. Freely dissolved metals and suspended metals (including acid-soluble, reducible, oxidizable, and residual metals) were separately analyzed according to a sequential extraction scheme. The regression of the observed suspended metals and total suspended solids (TSS) concentrations allowed us to couple the two pollutant types. TSS is a highly dynamic parameter, and a model can be developed to simulate TSS transport. Thus, a method including the following five steps was proposed to estimate the loadings of metals entering the sea using TSS concentrations and water quality models: (1) collecting and observing basic information on the hydrological conditions, pollution sources, and water quality of the studied river; (2) obtaining a regression model between the suspended metals and TSS and analyzing the potential of establishing a suspended metal flux model; (3) introducing a model describing the fluxes of water-soluble metals into the sea; (4) establishing a calculation model to determine the fluxes of suspended metals into the sea; and (5) characterizing the fluxes of metals into the sea. The method was programmed, and metal concentrations and fluxes could be characterized quickly when the basic river data were sufficient. In addition, if regional development scenarios could be set, metal loadings in all scenarios could be predicted through the procedure developed herein, and some effective suggestions on regional sustainable development might be proposed for decision makers. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2022;18:198-208. © 2021 SETAC.

Науково-методичне забезпечення вирішення проблемних ситуацій в регіонах України (на прикладі Харківської області)

Formulating regional development goals stands out as an important part of the state regional policy, which in its essence has a purposeful character reflected in the state’s permanent influence on the socio-economic development of the country's regions. Analysis of modern research on the issue has shown urgent need to deepen the theoretical foundations and toolkit for solving problematic situations in the regions, the latter being the purpose of the study. The theoretical basis to enable setting the goals (goal-setting) for regional development is substantiated. It is proved that the cognitive approach is among the most powerful tools for studying poorly structured systems and situations, and the expediency of using fuzzy cognitive modeling to form regional development scenarios and solve problematic situations present in the relevant regions is substantiated. A special algorithm to carry out structural analysis of socio-economic regional development and to form a fuzzy cognitive model has been designed. Using this algorithm, a fuzzy cognitive model of socio-economic development of Ukraine’s regions has been formed. Pulse modeling based on the fuzzy cognitive model of socio-economic development of Ukraine’s regions by the self-development scenario is carried out. Scenario modeling has been implemented as for raising the strategic goals level of socio-economic development in the Kharkiv region on the basis of pulse modeling. The expediency of introducing a criterion showing the total impact effectiveness of certain scenarios exerted on goals achievement topical for the Kharkiv region is analyzed. It is substantiated that this criterion should be based on weighted additive convolution of the growth rate as for the level of target factors relative to the self-development scenario. The scenario modeling of the Kharkiv region socio-economic development based on the cognitive model formed in accordance with the approach mentioned above shows that reaching the top level of the region’s goals requires implementing development scenarios based on the effective growth of the region’s scientific potential and its combination with other domestic potentials.

Latin America in the 21st Century: Regional Development Trajectories

Latin America and the Caribbean region (LAC), which includes more than thirty countries, is traditionally characterized by a complex combination of elements of homogeneity and heterogeneity. The latter, stemming from traditional economic social and political differentiation and ideological polarization, in the modern context strengthens regional contradictions and creates new division lines. At the same time, the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries was marked by a growing integration of the region into the global market and globalization processes in general. In order to provide an outlook on the possible future developments in LAC, the author examines how the key trends of the current world politics permeate the region. The theoretical framework of the paper is based on the methodology proposed by the Russian researcher M.M. Lebedeva who outlines three basic megatrends — globalization, integration, and democratization and their counter-trends — deglobalization, disintegration, and dedemocratization, accordingly. It is within this broader context of a complex interplay of these trends and counter-trends, that the dynamics of regional processes in LAC is conceived. On this basis, the author identifies three possible regional development scenarios. The first one presupposes strengthening of institutional linkages between North, Central, and South America on the basis of Pan-American ideas. The second implies civilizational ‘isolation’ of LAC within large but still only regional integration projects. Finally, the third scenario proceeds from the linear development of the current regional trends. It implies further fragmentation of LAC within subregional organizations and chaotization of regional international relations. The author concludes that currently the regional development is affected predominantly by counter-trends, which are evidenced by increasing isolationism, an impasse facing major integration projects and democratic institutions, and the growth of populist movements. At the same time, all this shows that Latin America is fully integrated in global economic and political processes since these counter-trends characterize the development of a contemporary system of international relations in general.

Loose One-Way Coupling of Land Use and Nutrient Emission Models to Assess Effects of Regional Development Scenarios on Catchment Water Quality

Nutrient enrichment and eutrophication can increase when urbanisation and intensification of agriculture production occurs without accompanying mitigation measures to offset impacts from land use transitions. The identification of measures to protect or restore water quality is a challenging exercise, particularly in the context of increasing population and urbanisation. Hence, decision-makers need adequate tools to better understand and evaluate the effects of policy interventions on water management and quality control in urban regions. A model integration method was developed to assess future scenarios of urban development on water quality using land use model Monitoring Land Use/Cover Dynamics and nutrient emission model Source Load Apportionment Model. A case study application investigated how projected changes in urban land use in the most populated region of Ireland, the Greater Dublin Region, impact on water quality. Results for all scenarios indicate increasing losses to water for both phosphorus (18–25%) and nitrogen (9–12%). However, as these scenarios assume that wastewater treatment efficiencies remain static into the future, this study highlights that the magnitude and distribution of investment in urban wastewater collection and treatment will have the greatest impact on changes in future nutrient emissions to water in this urban region. The differences between the development scenarios for diffuse nutrient losses were small in comparison, even though the location of specific land uses varied broadly across scenarios. It was found that the decline of agricultural land cover and replacement with urban development in Dublin region by 2026 as represented by four modelled scenarios resulted in substantial increases in diffuse phosphorus emissions, but only slight changes in diffuse nitrogen emissions. It was shown that the scales of impact from sources of nutrients vary from scenario to scenario and that these should be considered alongside planned mitigation of point sources of nutrient emissions to water. Such information can support physical planners, catchment managers and policy makers to plan accordingly to get the best possible environmental outcomes. The case study application demonstrated that the loose one-way coupling of a land use model and a nutrient emission model can be an effective and inexpensive approach to improve understanding of the effects of urbanisation on water quality and assist in the strategic planning of catchment management and infrastructure investment.

Effects on Local Temperature and Energy of Oasis City Expansion in Arid Area of Northwest China

The land surface model SURFEX 7.3 was used to study climate effect of urban expansion located in oasis in arid area of Northwest China by surface and 2 m urban heat island (UHI) intensity and available energy ratio (B). We performed a true regional development scenario and three assumed scenario simulations in 1978, 1993, 2004, and 2014, respectively. The results show that 2 m UHI always displays positive twin peaks during whole day, while surface UHI only displays a positive single peak with several hours during daytime at four seasons in the four years. Moreover, 2 m UHI intensity during night is higher than that during daytime, indicating that UHI intensity is contributed more by “trap effect” from urban complex geometry or anthropogenic heat and that surface UHI according to land surface temperature cannot reflect UHI comprehensively. The oasis-urban development resulted in local warming and increasing of B, and compared with the original undeveloped environment, local climate in the study area was in a relatively balanced state in 1978 and 1993 due to the “heating effect” of urban area and the “cooling effect” of oasis, but the offsetting effect from oasis would become weaker after1993.

Examination of Mechanisms of Regional Sust ainable Development Strategy as Exemplified by t he Leningrad Region

Sustainable regional development can be achieved through balanced use and development of the region's industrial potential, improvement of its socioeconomic performance and drawing up a logical and prudent list of priorities and regional development indicators in strategy papers to ensure consistency with the actual economic situation in the region and maximum utilisation of the available development potential. The above highlights the importance of analysing the region's socioeconomic conditions, identifying the weaknesses in development at the national level in general and priority industries in the region in particular and drawing up regional development scenarios to chart the optimum balanced path during the transition toward the digital interaction environment. The aim of the research is to analyse the content of strategy papers in order to identify priority development directions for the region in question, favourable territories at the microlevel for maximum fulfilment of the regional strategy (i.e. municipalities) and priority industries to support the region's balanced development in the long term. For that, the ranking scoring method is proposed for municipalities, which is based on the parametric analysis. The normative inferences are drawn from quantitative comparisons of statistical data for the region and municipalities, i.e. an aggregate score of a municipality is determined based on the selected criteria, according to which the municipality is assigned its rank. Simultaneously, the values for the Leningrad region as a whole are also presented. The method of calculating the indicators of the basic type of economic activity (an integrated set of indicators) is then used to identify the region's priority industry. As a result, municipalities with high socioeconomic profile are identified in the Leningrad region, which are the Vsevolozhsky municipal district, Sosnovoborsky urban district, Lomonosovsky municipal district and Gatchinsky municipal district. These territories show the strongest potential for implementing the mechanisms of sustainable development strategies. The analysis indicated the following priority industries for sustainable development of the Leningrad region: manufacturing, transport and communications, wholesale and retail trade, real estate transactions and construction. Accordingly, targeted financing of modernisation in these industries would lead to sustainable long-term development in the Leningrad region.

System Dynamics and Learning Scenarios for Process Improvement and Regional Resilience: A Study in The Footwear Industry of Southern Brazil

By means of integrated and systemic resilience strategies, it is possible to reduce vulnerability and risk, and at the same time increase the capacity to adapt to sustainable regional development scenarios. On the other hand, industries that can develop learning skills may address critical situations by adopting systemic thinking that is focused on problem-solving. In this study, our objective is to analyze the dynamics of the footwear industry in the south of Brazil. The secondary objectives are the development of a dynamic model that would a) explain the main processes of the industry, b) chart the projection of learning scenarios that simulate the capacity of improvement in these processes, and c) increase the regional resilience for a time horizon of 10. Action research was used as research method, due to the cooperative and participative involvement that occurs between the researchers and the participants in order to understand the situation and to construct the systems dynamic model of the impact of the footwear-industry activity of a city in the south of Brazil over the city resilience. The studied industry underwent a major economic change; it shifted from the production of commodities to the production of differentiated specialties. From the systemic analysis, five main learning scenarios were identified: (i) the AS IS, (ii) the uniform distribution of investment, (iii) the labor training investment, (iv) the value-added marketing investment, and (v) the solid waste treatment investment. Moreover, four scenarios of comparison were identified as well, namely (i) the large exchange variation and low-level crisis, (ii) the large exchange variation and high-level crisis, (iii) the small exchange variation and high-level crisis, and (iv) the small exchange variation and low-level crisis. The systems dynamic model relied on input data, the opinion of industry experts, performance equations, and graphical functions. The model provided a learning environment that allowed a better understanding systemic filling the gap left by the indexes that purport to measure the resiliency allowing a better understanding of the factors and elements that interact and influence the regional resilience and of the improvements in productive processes in the footwear industry. Thus, simultaneous business investment in determinants of resilience factors contribute to increase resilience in the region where these companies operate? A synergistic effect was observed; that is, resilience could be more easily achieved if the scenarios of labor qualification, value-added marketing, and solid waste treatment were applied simultaneously. These findings were compared to the principles of the BRICS index and were fully aligned. In future studies, it is important to establish a performance index in order to generate models that would be capable of controlling evolutionary paths toward process improvement and of increasing the regional resilience of the industry.

The determination of regional development priorities

Development plans in a region cannot use generic models if the potentials and challenges of each area are different. Therefore, the development plan should be adjusted to their respective characteristics. This study aims to define the priority of regional development scenarios by using K-means clustering algorithm and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). The research was done in Garut Regency, data source used is statistic data of Garut, the result of spreading of the questioner and Focus Group Discussion. The result of research has divided Garut Regency into four clusters/development areas. Furthermore, Cluster I main priority is the scenario of development programs in the infrastructure and facilities sectors. Cluster II’s main priority is the scenario of development programs in the sectors of commodity optimization, commodity diversification, and trading system. Cluster III’s top priority is the scenario of development programs in the manufacture and service industry sectors. Cluster IV’s main priority is the scenario of development programs in the infrastructure and facilities sectors. Overall, the conclusion of the study indicate that the scenario of development programs in the infrastructure and facilities sectors is the most essential scenario among other scenarios.

The North–South Divergence in Italy during the Great Recession

The economic recession that followed the 2007 crisis has widened the economic gaps between the wealthiest and the relatively poorer regions in Italy. The Great Recession has changed the importance of local economic strengths and hindered the possibilities of economic recovery, especially in the Mezzogiorno of Italy. We seek the local strengths present in Italian regions in the post‐crisis period by comparing two macro areas to observe strong and weak points for intervention. A first analysis using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) is used to filter the relevant determinants in a large dataset, and a panel data analysis serves to obtain group‐specific results. Some effects of the prolonged recession are confirmed in all regions, while some weaknesses of the South, such as financial markets, play an increasing role in the regional development scenarios.

A Generative Model of Urban Activities from Cellular Data

Activity-based travel demand models are becoming essential tools used in transportation planning and regional development scenario evaluation. They describe travel itineraries of individual travelers, namely, what activities they are participating in, when they perform these activities, and how they choose to travel to the activity locales. However, data collection for activity-based models is performed through travel surveys that are infrequent, expensive, and reflect the changes in transportation with significant delays. Thanks to the ubiquitous cell phone data, we see an opportunity to substantially complement these surveys with data extracted from network carrier mobile phone usage logs, such as call detail records (CDRs). In this paper, we develop input–output hidden Markov models to infer travelers’ activity patterns from CDRs. We apply the model to the data collected by a major network carrier serving millions of users in the San Francisco Bay Area. Our approach delivers an end-to-end actionable solution to the practitioners in the form of a modular and interpretable activity-based travel demand model. It is experimentally validated with three independent data sources: aggregated statistics from travel surveys, a set of collected ground truth activities, and the results of a traffic micro-simulation informed with the travel plans synthesized from the developed generative model.

Application of Imprecise Decision Modeling for Regional Development Policies in Indonesia

Regional Development encompasses many aspect of economic, social, and environmental attributes. In the context of developing country, the decision to fulfill these attributes are often hindered by lack of clear development scenarios and constraints. This study is an attempt to capture the complexity of decision makers for regional development scenarios using imprecise decision modeling (IDM) by incorporating imprecise information and uncertainties. A series of social, economic and environmental criteria based on agreement from multi stakeholders dialogues were developed along with four policy development scenarios. Results from such a modeling provides variety of decision alternatives based on probabilities and risk assessment associated with achieving policy objectives.

Historical Heritage Factor in Evaluating Development Prospects of the Regional Multicultural Community

The investigation proposes a number of approaches to assessment of the factors of historical heritage in terms of their impact on quality of living and socio-economic development of a multicultural region. The monitoring variant and the complex of methods were substantiated to give predictive assessment of the prospects of socio-economic development of a region in the analysis of historical retrospective of its development. They are based on the analysis of the category of quality of life and represent the combination of logical modeling methods (including the construction of forecast scenarios), mathematical-statistical and expert judgments.In particular, the authors propose a modified index statistical method of monitoring and forecasting of the dynamics of the quality of life of a region, taking into account a social differentiation of its territory. The authors have elaborated the quality of life (dynamics) change indicators, considering a historical retrospective. These indicators form the basis for the identification and analysis of regional development scenario variants. The paper also presents an adaptable method of expert judgments based on a questionnaire for social and economic forecasting.The Republic of Tatarstan, being one of the most dynamic multicultural regions of Russia with rich historical and cultural heritage was selected as a base region. The paper presents a number of forecast scenarios of development of the region, based on the differentiation of the quality of life of regional community, and takes into account local areas of compact settlement of various ethnic groups.The comparative evaluation of these scenarios is provided.

Regional Development Scenario Evaluation through Land Use Modelling and Opportunity Mapping

In the context of sustainable urban development, the application of selected indicators integrated with scenario simulation and analysis can contribute to evidence-based decision making. This paper discusses the application of land use modelling and opportunity mapping approaches to evaluate regional development scenarios for the Greater Dublin Region in the period to 2026 evolving from research initially developed with the Dublin Regional Authority. This involved the simulation of four different future regional development scenarios using an adapted version of the MOLAND model with opportunity maps based on combined spatial indicators corresponding to these scenarios. The results produce valuable information for policy makers and planners assisting the evaluation of the consequences of their decisions in both a spatial and temporal context. This paper aims to show how current and future planning and economic policy can make targeted and evidence-based policy interventions and achieve resource efficiencies through the use of scenario analysis.

A toolkit for macrostructural regional forecasting: Methodological approaches and results of computations

This paper discusses the issues of developing a consistent system of forecast computations providing a long-term outlook for the Russian economy in both sectoral and regional contexts. Under special focus is the formation of regional development scenarios. Such scenarios are suggested to be based on the territorial pattern of investments into the national economy. Results of computations are presented for the period up to 2030 for two scenarios.

Greening metropolitan growth: integrating nature recreation, compactness and spaciousness in regional development planning

This article reports the findings on analyses of landscape morphology by density and green space distribution of the Stockholm county region, correlations between morphology and socio-economic data and assessments of two regional development scenarios for 2030 modelled in the proposed regional plan (The Office of Regional Planning and Urban Transportation in Stockholm 2010). Today, Stockholm is a relatively green and spacious metropolitan region with a small compact city core. We found the correlations between compactness (product of floor area and nature recreation area) and highly mixed parcels (R2 = 0.729, p < 0.001), between compactness and overweight (R2 = 0.47, p < 0.001) and between accessibility to nature recreation and reduced psychological well-being (R2 = 0.40, p < 0.001). It seems that new housing developments and income levels are driven by compactness in the city centre and spaciousness (quotient of nature recreation area and floor area) in the suburban periphery. The scenario FÖRDELAD is more spread out and spacious in the periphery and the scenario TÄT is more compacted in the city centre; however, both scenarios decrease in compactness and spaciousness in the inner suburbs. We consider that the decline in spaciousness in inner suburbia would be accepted if compactness also increased a situation that is not part of either scenario. The apparent risk of this development is that suburbia will lose its attractiveness and this will fall to a level that it will fuel even more peripheral sprawl. With support from the correlation studies and other sprawl research, we suggest that this planned development could have severe negative consequences for sustainability and attractiveness, which are claimed to be the core goals in the proposed regional plan.