Regional Climate Data Research Articles

Quantifying urban climate response to large-scale forcing modified by local boundary layer effects

Over the past two decades, the joint manifestation of global warming and rapid urbanization has significantly increased the occurrence of heatwaves and the formation of urban heat islands in temperate cities. Consequently, this synergy has amplified the frequency and duration of periods with tropical nights (TNs) in these urban areas. While the occurrences of such extreme events demonstrate irregular and nonlinear annual patterns, they consistently manifest a discernible rising decadal trend in local or regional climatic data. In urban regions situated amidst hilly or mountainous landscapes, changing wind directions—often associated with uphill or downhill thermal flows—profoundly impact the spread and dispersion of heat-related pollution, creating unique natural ventilation patterns. Using the Lausanne/Pully urban area in Switzerland as examples of hilly and lakeshore temperate cities, this study explores the influence of wind patterns and natural urban ventilation on the nonlinearity of recorded climatic data within an urban environment. This study integrates a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model (COSMO-1), a microscale Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model, field observations, variational mode decomposition technique, and statistical analysis to investigate how wind speed and direction critically influence the nonlinearity of recorded long-term trends of extreme events, specifically focusing on the frequency and duration of TNs in lakeshore and hilly cities. The results strongly indicate a direct correlation between the frequency of TNs and the occurrence of specific moderate wind patterns. These wind patterns are exclusively captured by the microscale CFD model, unlike the mesoscale model, which neglects both urban morphology and complex hilly terrains. The impact of temporal and spatial variability of the wind field on long-term observations at fixed measurement stations suggests that caution should be exercised when relying on limited spatial measurement points to monitor and quantify long-term urban climate trends, particularly in cities located in complex terrains.

Forest canopy cover affects microclimate buffering during an extreme heat event

Increasing temperatures and extreme heat episodes have become more common with climate change. While forests are known to buffer increasing temperatures (relative to non-forested areas), whether this buffering is maintained under extreme temperature events is relatively unknown. Here we assess whether forests continue to buffer microclimate (specifically temperatures) during an extreme heat event: the Pacific Northwest (PNW) heat dome in June 2021. We use a combination of ground-based and regional climate data and find that forest understories were 3 °C cooler than a clear-cut area and 4 °C cooler than regional temperatures during the PNW heat dome. By examining forests with different levels of canopy cover we also found that the buffering capacity of forests is greater under denser canopies even under extreme heat events. Additionally, we found vertical variation in thermal buffering, with the greatest amount of buffering at the surface of the forest floor. Overall, our findings suggest that temperate coastal forests, that are known to buffer average temperatures, can also act as microclimate buffers during extreme heat events like the heat dome that occurred in the PNW in 2021. This could be good news for forest dwelling organisms that are sensitive to such extreme heat events.

Implications of crop yield distributions for multiperil crop insurance rating in Ghana: a lasso model application

PurposeThe objective of this paper is to examine crop yield predictions and their implications on MPCI in Ghana. Farmers in developing countries struggle with their ability to deal with agricultural risks. Providing aid for farmers and their households remains instrumental in combatting poverty in Africa. Several studies have shown that correctly understanding and implementing risk management strategies will help in the poverty alleviation agenda.Design/methodology/approachThis study examines the importance of crop yield distributions in Ghana and its implication on multiperil crop insurance (MPCI) rating using the Lasso regression model. A Bonferroni test was employed to test the independence of crop yields across the regions while the Kruskal-Wallis H test was conducted to examine statistical differences in mean yields of crops across the ten regions. The Bayesian information criteria and k-fold cross-validation methods are used to select an appropriate Lasso regression model for the prediction of crop yields. The study focuses on the variability of the threshold yields across regions based on the chosen model.FindingsIt is revealed that threshold yields differ significantly across the regions in the country. This implies that the payment of claims will not be evenly distributed across the regions, and hence regional disparities need to be considered when pricing MPCI products. In other words, policymakers may choose to assign respective weights across regions based on their threshold yields.Research limitations/implicationsThe primary limitation is the unavailability of regional climate data which could have helped in a better explanation of the variation across the regions.Originality/valueThis is the first study to examine the implications of regional crop yield variations on multiperil crop insurance rating in Ghana.

Does Climate Variability Influence Internal Migration Flows in Senegal? An Empirical Analysis

This paper aims to estimate the total effect of climate variability on interregional migration flows in Senegal. We match regional climate data at origin, represented by normalised rainfall and normalised temperatures (maximum and minimum), with regional migration flow data from Senegal’s Agence Nationale de la Statistique et de la Démographie (ANSD) censuses to construct a panel database covering the five-yearly internal migration waves of 1976, 1988, 2001 and 2013. Using a gravity equation model where migration flows are explained by measures of climatic variability at origin, controlled for geographical, socioeconomic and demographic factors traditionally identified in the literature. Our results show that only negative precipitation anomalies at the origin area act as a push factor and accelerate emigration. In the predominantly agricultural regions, rainfall deficits appear, alongside traditional socioeconomic variables, as an additional significant factor shaping mobility across the country.

Delivering an Improved Framework for the New Generation of CMIP6-Driven EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Simulations

Abstract The Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) is a coordinated international activity that has produced ensembles of regional climate simulations with domains that cover all land areas of the world. These ensembles are used by a wide range of practitioners that include the scientific community, policymakers, and stakeholders from the public and private sectors. They also provide the scientific basis for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-Assessment Reports. As its next phase now launches, the CMIP6-CORDEX datasets are expected to populate community repositories over the next couple of years, with updated state-of-the-art regional climate data that will further support national and regional communities and inform their climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. The protocol presented here focuses on the European domain (EURO-CORDEX). It takes the international CORDEX protocol covering all 14 global domains as its template. However, it expands on the international protocol in specific areas; incorporates historical and projected aerosol trends into the regional models in a consistent way with CMIP6 global climate models, to allow for a better comparison of global versus regional trends; produces more climate variables to better support sectorial climate impact assessments; and takes into account the recent scientific developments addressed in the CORDEX Flagship Pilot Studies, enabling a better assessment of processes and phenomena relevant to regional climate (e.g., land-use change, aerosol, convection, and urban environment). Here, we summarize the scientific analysis which led to the new simulation protocol and highlight the improvements we expect in the new generation regional climate ensemble.

Reconstruction of Holocene precipitation patterns and vegetation evolution in the North China Plain: Deciphering the relative influence of climate and anthropogenic forcing

In this paper, we investigate Holocene precipitation changes in northern China to improve the understanding of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and provide an environmental context for the development of Chinese civilisation. Our study is based on an analysis of 260 pollen samples from Holocene lacustrine sediments at Ningjinpo in northern China, and employs the biomisation method to reconstruct regional vegetation types and vegetation changes, and to decipher their driving factors, by incorporating regional climatic data and information on human activities. Results indicate that, in the early Holocene (10,000–8100 cal yr B.P.), regional climate was dry, with annual precipitation of 470 mm. In the middle Holocene (8100–3000 cal yr B.P.), a rapid increase was observed in precipitation, reaching 580 mm. During the late Holocene (2600–600 cal yr B.P.), climate became drier again, with annual precipitation decreasing to 480 mm. Between 10,000–600 cal yr B.P., vegetation exhibited distinct successional patterns dominantly influenced by climate, transitioning from meadow-steppe to forest, and then back to meadow-steppe. After 600 cal yr B.P., vegetation succession decoupled from climate change, with human activities emerging as the primary driving force, as indicated by the substantial increase in anthropogenic pollen and charcoal concentrations. In the future, under the combined influence of global warming and intensified human activity, the implementation of scientific environmental planning measures will become increasingly important for the restoration and sustainable development of regional vegetation ecosystems.

Modeling projected impacts of climate and land use/land cover changes on streamflow in Gelana Catchment, Southern Ethiopia

Effective watershed management is extremely critical because changes in the global and local distribution of climate have a direct impact on ecosystems. The primary goal of the current study was to evaluate current and projected climate and land use land cover (LULC) change on streamflow in Gelana catchment. LULC prepared via supervised classification algorithm by using ERDAS (Earth Resources and Development Systems) software, ArcGIS 10.4 (for satellite image processing and map preparation), and the Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov model revealed significant gains in agricultural and built-up over forest and pasture land classes. A coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment under the Africa domain for three regional climate data for two future scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) showed a significant reduction in rainfall from 48.64 % to 4.6 %, while minimum and maximum temperatures increased from 0.58 to 3.35 °C and 0.5 to 2.93 °C, respectively. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to analyze the impact of LULC and climate change on streamflow. The model calibration and validation were carried out by using monthly observed streamflow for the most sensitive parameters by using Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) within the SWAT Calibration of Uncertainty Program (SWAT-CUP). The model performed well between observed and simulated streamflow, with R2, NSE, PBIAS, P, and r-factors of 0.84, 0.77, −15.9, 0.68, and 0.56 for calibration and 0.88, 0.8, −14, 0.63, and 0.65 for validation, respectively. The results of the study implied the simulated mean annual streamflow increased from 3.22 % to 23.82 % in the case of LULC change alone, while it decreased from 38.2 % to 23.27 % for climate change alone for the near-term of RCP 4.5 and from 45.3 % to 24.6 % for RCP 8.5. Further substantial decline was observed in the combined simulation, from 55.38 % to 42.45 % and 62.15 % to 59.36 % for the near and far future of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. In order to address the constraints, current findings are valuable to scale up sustainable natural resource management.

Investigation of the Development of Tropical Storm Nicholas based on Global and Regional Climate Data

This paper studies the simulation of Cyclone Nicholas that occurred close to the coastal area of Western Australia and fell on the mainland of Southwestern Australia. The simulation was conducted via a dynamical downscaling model, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), to obtain a higher resolution with reference to the regional climate data. The model simulation is generated using a global reanalysis of climate data for the initial and lateral boundary conditions. We investigated the response of the tropical storm to the model regarding the track and intensity using a modified Kyklop method that appears more appropriate for a landfall cyclone. Our study suggests that the regional climate data computed by the model deviates from the storm track of the global climate data forcing field. In this study, the track of the simulated storm is parallel to the satellite data, but it is shifted slightly to the east, closer to the mainland. Nevertheless, the model simulation can implement the intensity of the storm as strongly as the observation, while the forcing data delivers substantial underestimation.

Stratigraphic framework and late Holocene history of a lacustrine beach-ridge complex: Paleoclimate archives within migrating strand promontories

This paper focuses on the physiography, stratigraphy, and age composition of a migrating strandplain promontory on Lake Michigan, discussing implied changes in alongshore sediment-transport dynamics within context of regional climate data. The Zion Beach-ridge Plain, a mainland-attached system believed to have migrated by >10 km over the past 4.5 kyrs, is partitioned into distinct physiographic zones. Its structural compartmentalization into distinct ridge sets, recognized in LiDAR-based topographic datasets and subsurface reflection geophysical records, reflects a punctuated morphodynamic development that has implications for understanding groundwater-flow patterns, wetland ecology, and coastal morphodynamic evolution. The most recent physiographic boundary within the strand dates to a high-amplitude lake-level rise event (>3 m in magnitude) that coincided with a regional shift in dominant storm-wind direction. The abrupt juxtaposition of young, high-relief dune-ridge terrain against old, low-relief wetland meadow attests to increased rates of littoral sand transport under conditions of heightened wave and current energies. Ongoing work to refine the geochronology of this and similar events is underway and stands to enhance our understanding of late Holocene coastal evolution. Strandplains are studied globally as important coastal paleoclimate archives, yet in the Great Lakes region the emphasis has been on embayed systems. While sheltered environments (e.g., bedrock-confined strandplains) foster high preservation potentials, optimal for paleohydrographic reconstructions from progradational sequences, the complex depositional architectures of strandplain promontories may provide information on open-water processes not contained within the former.

Whole crop maize yield modeling based on regional climatic data considering cultivar maturity grouping

AbstractThe sustainable supply of whole crop maize (WCM, Zea mays L.), as the domestic high‐quality forage source, is causing great concern among the related parties in the Republic of Korea. Many new cultivars were introduced or developed in recent decades. This study was conducted to construct the WCM weather‐crop yield prediction model considering cultivar maturity as well as to evaluate the effects of local climatic factors on yield. Data on the nationwide adaptability tests of WCM cultivars and the meteorological data were collected and merged into a dataset (n = 386, 22 years) after data cleansing. Three climatic variables, including the accumulation values of growing degree days, precipitation, and sunshine hours from seeding to harvesting, were generated. Then, the dataset was split into two sub datasets considering cultivar maturity. Subsequently, the models, including the three climatic variables and the cultivated location, were constructed for both sub datasets. The finesses and accuracy of the models were confirmed by residual diagnostics and 3‐fold cross‐validation. The accumulated temperature, sunshine time, and precipitation were found to significantly affect the WCM yield variance, while the precipitation factor caused stresses to the yield, which indicates water management is important for WCM cultivation.

Assessing a multi-method approach for dryland soil salinization with respect to climate change and global warming – The example of the Bajestan region (NE Iran)

Dryland soil salinization strongly affects soil properties, with severe consequences for regional ecology, agriculture and the aeolian dust dynamics. Given its climate-sensitivity it forms a serious environmental hazard, and to cope with this challenge during current global warming it needs to be better understood. The Bajestan Playa in the strongly salinization-affected Iranian drylands hosts several protected areas and forms an important regional dust source. Hence, soil salinization in this region affects local and regional ecosystems and societies, but was not systematically studied yet. Using an unprecedented comprehensive approach we systematically monitored regional soil salinity 1992–2021 using remote sensing as well as on-site field and laboratory measurements, and linked these with regional and global climatic data to understand (i) the spatio-temporal soil salinity dynamics, (ii) the impact of regional and global climate changes, and (iii) the potential of our approach for further soil salinity studies.Our annual time resolution over three decades provided significantly deeper and unprecedented insights into soil salinization: Both regional annual precipitation and temperature control soil salinity, but the latter responds to precipitation with time lags of up to two years and to higher temperatures without any time lag. This probably reflects the transport time of leached soluble salts from their sources following humid years. No systematic soil salinity changes were observed within the playa basin, but outside the basin soil salinity systematically increased. Whereas regional precipitation did not show a systematic trend during the last decades, regional temperature increased and was mostly correlated with the increasing GLOTI, POL and TSA climatic indices. Hence, given ongoing global warming a further increase of regional soil salinization should be expected, with serious consequences for saline dust emissions, the regional protected areas and climate-related migrations. Altogether, our multi-disciplinary pioneer study demonstrates a high future application potential also for other salinity-affected drylands, forming a base to deal with the consequences of ongoing global climate change.

Ecological Potential of Building Components in Multi-Storey Residential Construction: A Comparative Case Study between an Existing Concrete and a Timber Building in Austria

With the introduction of energy-efficient buildings, the importance of embodied energy in new buildings has become increasingly relevant to minimising the impact of climate change. This study compares two existing four-storey residential buildings: one building has a reinforced concrete (RC) structure and the other has a timber structure. The study’s aim is to find out which building components are responsible for the largest embodied impacts and whether there are differences between the two construction methods. The specificity of the wooden building is the combined use of solid and lightweight timber elements. The methodology consists of a general life cycle assessment (LCA) and a more detailed analysis of the product stage using the eco2soft software. The heating and cooling energy demand was calculated using the WUFI Plus software with recent regional climate data sets. The results show that for both types of construction in multi-storey buildings, it is not only the superstructure that needs to be considered, but also the floor structures, which have a major influence on the embodied impact. The timber building requires less energy to maintain the indoor climate within the set temperatures. As climate change has progressed rapidly in Austria in recent years, it is recommended that the standards for climate models be updated more quickly to allow realistic prediction of thermal comfort at the design stage.

Dimensional investigation of solar chimney power plant based on numerical and experimental results

• Construction of prototype solar chimney and recording air flow temperature and velocity data under different solar radiation. • 3D numerical simulation of the base case using FLUENT software and validation of the results with the experimental results obtained in this study and also validation with other researcher's numerical and experimental results. • Investigation of the fluid behavior pattern inside the solar chimney and system performance based on the simulation results under different geometric parameters. In this study, a pilot solar chimney power plant (SCPP) with a chimney height of 4 m and a collector diameter of 5 m was constructed. Main purpose of this research is identification and optimization of the system based on regional climatic experimental data which recorded from constructed solar chimney with new dimensions to utilize in our future studies. So that future studies can be conducted based on a suitable platform. Performance evaluation of solar chimney was simulated under different geometric configurations through a 3D axisymmetric incompressible steady computational fluid dynamics solver by applying k - ε turbulence model. For a better performance comparison of the SCPP between different geometries, air velocity and system output power were calculated for all states. The results showed that a higher collector radius and chimney radius increased the ​​air outflow velocity in the collector, whereas a higher collector height had a negative effect. According to the results, configurations with collector height of 5 cm have the highest velocity values compared to the others and the maximum power value of 1.74 W can be achieved for the collector inlet height of 15 cm and the chimney radius of 0.4 m.

Impact of historical climate variability on rice production in Mainland Southeast Asia across multiple scales

Climate change poses significant pressure on global food production. Although previous work has explored impacts of climate, management, and genetics on food production, additional research is needed to examine the effects of large-scale climate modes at local and regional scales. This study explores the impact of climate variability on rice yield in Mainland Southeast Asia from 1961-2017 at three different spatial scales: the whole Mainland Southeast Asia region, country-level (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam), and province-level for Vietnam. Annual rice yields over this period have nearly tripled with Vietnam experiencing the largest increases. Correlations between annual rice yield anomalies at the regional and country levels and climate data reveal clear influences of tropical climate variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Meridional Mode. At the provincial level in Vietnam, many provinces show similar correlation patterns for the spring-summer season of rice (e.g., a co-occurring La Niña and positive phase of the Pacific Meridional Mode in the preceding boreal winter and spring are associated with increased yields in spring-summer rice). However, the late summer-fall season rice yield anomalies show much weaker correlations with tropical climate patterns. Variations across provinces were also noted, particularly between the Red River and Mekong River Deltas. The history of this 56-year period, which included the Vietnam-American War and changes in land management policies, makes it challenging to disentangle the effects of climate variability and social factors on rice yields in these areas. However, these results highlight the importance of using a multidisciplinary and multiscale approach to help inform local and regional decision-making. • We examined climate and rice yields in Mainland Southeast Asia at 3 scales. • Correlations revealed clear influences of tropical climate variability. • Provinces in Vietnam showed varying results by rice season and location. • Future climate change may shift planting timing and threaten national exports. • A multidisciplinary and multiscale approach can help disentangle effects on rice.

Multi‐criteria techno‐economic analysis of solar photovoltaic/wind hybrid power systems under temperate continental climate

Climate conditions significantly affect the energy conversion behaviour of solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind turbine (WT) power systems. However, the quantified relationship between the systems performance and regional climate data remains unclear. This study aims to reveal the techno-economic performance of renewable power systems under temperate continental climate based on a multi-criteria analysis. Through simulating the systems’ long-term operation by collecting the local meteorological data and equipment costs as inputs, solar photovoltaic/wind hybrid renewable power systems in fourteen representative cities of Xinjiang province were assessed and optimized. The results show that there is an obvious linear correlation between technical and economic indicators and solar radiation or wind speed, and the fitting effects with wind speed are always better. In Xinjiang, photovoltaic systems in almost all cities have satisfactory technical and economic performance, but the wind power systems in most cities are not profitable and even lead to unpleasant investment losses. Sensitivity analysis shows that both climatic conditions and feed-in tariff have a negative impact on the system costs. These findings obtained from this study would provide theoretical support for further rationally enhancing penetration for renewable energy generation in contemporary distribution networks.

Hydrogeochemical responses of cave drip water to the local climate in the Liangfeng Cave, Southwest China

Abstract The hydrogeochemistry of cave drip water is an important environmental index in cave systems, and drip water monitoring may be an essential solution for paleoclimate reconstructions. We measured the hydrogeochemical properties of the seasonal and perennial drip water and CO2 concentrations from 2015 to 2019 in the Liangfeng Cave, Guilin, Southwest China. This study identified the difference in the regional environmental records in the perennial and seasonal drip water. By comparing the regional climate data recorded by the drip water, the results showed that the perennial drip water recorded regional climate information throughout the year, whereas the seasonal drip water only recorded the high precipitation periods. The precipitation during the 2015 dry season was abnormally high, and higher than the values in other rainy seasons. This indicates that hydrogeochemistry only represents changes in precipitation and not the alternation of dry and rainy seasons during this period.

First pollen record from the Late Holocene forest environment in the Lesser Caucasus

Pollen-based vegetation change has been inferred from sediments in Kalavan Red Lake. This small lake is placed in the beech-oak-hornbeam forest, about three kilometres away from the village of Kalavan (Gegharkunik Province of the Republic of Armenia) which is rich with archaeological sites spread in the Barepat River valley spanning from the Palaeolithic period onwards. It has the potential to document the Holocene forest history and climate and human impacts on the Lesser Caucasus. However, this lake happens to be formed by a large landslide.Pollen and XRF analysis are provided over the last 3800 years. The basal age of the Kalavan sediment approximates the landslide age. This created a not vegetated slope including the lake catchment. Erosion and sedimentation processes brought coarse and heavy minerogenic elements, declining with the catchment revegetation by tall-grassland. This shift in the sedimentation continues, suggesting less erosion in the catchment when an admixture of Quercus and grasslands settled. Starting from 2000 cal. BP, arboreal pollen increases successively thanks to the step afforestation of Quercus, Carpinus orientalis and Fagus.The comparison with available pollen reconstruction illustrates the uniqueness of the vegetation dynamic recorded at Kalavan. However, the duration of this succession is also questionable. An intermediate hypothesis is proposed: the Kalavan's dynamic is first initiated by the landslide with the tall-grass development, then paced by the regional vegetation dynamic.Linking vegetation history and erosion with regional climate and archaeological data helps to evidence short-term climate change and human impact. Antique arid phase (2000–1600 cal. BP), the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age affect the vegetation, while demography variations during the Medieval period and Modern Age are shown by habitation and pastoral activity.

Flowering time advances since the 1970s in a sagebrush steppe community: Implications for management and restoration.

Climate change is widely known to affect plant phenology, but little is known about how these impacts manifest in the widespread sagebrush ecosystem of the Western United States, which supports a number of wildlife species of concern. Shifts in plant phenology can trigger consequences for the plants themselves as well as the communities of consumers that depend upon them. We assembled historical observations of first-flowering dates for 51 species collected in the 1970s and 1980s in a montane sagebrush community in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and compared these to contemporary phenological observations targeting the same species and locations (2016-2019). We also assembled regional climate data (average spring temperature, day of spring snowmelt, and growing degree days) and tested the relationship between first-flowering time and these variables for each species. We observed the largest change in phenology in early-spring flowers, which, as a group, bloomed on average 17 days earlier, and as much as 36 days earlier, in the contemporary data set. Mid-summer flowers bloomed on average 10 days earlier, nonnative species 15 days earlier, and berry-producing shrubs 5 days earlier, while late summer flowering plants did not shift. The greatest correlates of early-spring and mid-summer flowering were average spring temperature and day of snowmelt, which was 21 days earlier, on average, in 2016-2019 relative to the 1973-1978 observations. The shifts in flowering phenology that we observed could indicate developing asynchronies or novel synchronies of these plant resources and wildlife species of conservation concern, including Greater Sage-grouse, whose nesting success is tied to availability of spring forbs; grizzly bears, which rely heavily on berries for their fall diet; and pollinators. This underscores the importance of maintaining a diverse portfolio of native plants in terms of species composition, genetics, phenological responsiveness to climatic cues, and ecological importance to key wildlife and pollinator species. Redundancy within ecological niches may also be important considering that species roles in the community may shift as climate change affects them differently. These considerations are particularly relevant to restoration and habitat-enhancement projects in sagebrush communities across western North America.

The effect of climate on age specific survival and senescence in a Hazel Dormouse (Muscardinus avellanarius) population in Lithuania, across 1997-2021

It is well known that survival and the dynamics of wild populations are affected by environmental factors. Recent research has found that, among some species of mammal, differences in environmental conditions between populations of the same species translate into changes in infant and juvenile mortality, but not in the rate of senescence (‘rate of aging’). This has been confirmed among primates and some species of carnivores, but has not been tested on other taxonomic groups, such as rodents. Here, we analyse age-specific survival and mortality on the most extensive capture-mark-recapture data set on Hazel Dormouse available from Lithuania. We used Bayesian survival trajectory analysis (BaSTA) and tested different models of age-specific mortality. Since the Hazel Dormouse population is in decline across its northern distribution, potentially in response to climate change, we divided the data into three periods to assess changes in survival over time. Regional climate data were obtained from the NOAA data service to test the effect of climatic factors on survival during winter and summer respectively. Our results show that, during all three periods, male life expectancies were longer than those of females. We found that the overall level of mortality was high for all three periods, with lowest mortality during the period 1999 - 2004. We found large differences in juvenile mortality and age-independent mortality between the three periods, but not in adult mortality or in the rate of senescence. This is consistent with previous findings on other mammals, supporting the invariant rate of aging hypothesis.

High-resolution land use and land cover dataset for regional climate modelling: a plant functional type map for Europe 2015

Abstract. The concept of plant functional types (PFTs) is shown to be beneficial in representing the complexity of plant characteristics in land use and climate change studies using regional climate models (RCMs). By representing land use and land cover (LULC) as functional traits, responses and effects of specific plant communities can be directly coupled to the lowest atmospheric layers. To meet the requirements of RCMs for realistic LULC distribution, we developed a PFT dataset for Europe (LANDMATE PFT Version 1.0; http://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/LM_PFT_LandCov_EUR2015_v1.0, Reinhart et al., 2021b). The dataset is based on the high-resolution European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA-CCI) land cover dataset and is further improved through the additional use of climate information. Within the LANDMATE – LAND surface Modifications and its feedbacks on local and regional cliMATE – PFT dataset, satellite-based LULC information and climate data are combined to create the representation of the diverse plant communities and their functions in the respective regional ecosystems while keeping the dataset most flexible for application in RCMs. Each LULC class of ESA-CCI is translated into PFT or PFT fractions including climate information by using the Holdridge life zone concept. Through consideration of regional climate data, the resulting PFT map for Europe is regionally customized. A thorough evaluation of the LANDMATE PFT dataset is done using a comprehensive ground truth database over the European continent. The assessment shows that the dominant LULC types, cropland and woodland, are well represented within the dataset, while uncertainties are found for some less represented LULC types. The LANDMATE PFT dataset provides a realistic, high-resolution LULC distribution for implementation in RCMs and is used as a basis for the Land Use and Climate Across Scales (LUCAS) Land Use Change (LUC) dataset which is available for use as LULC change input for RCM experiment set-ups focused on investigating LULC change impact.