Regional Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Research Articles

Regional Fluctuations in the Eastern Tropical North Pacific Oxygen Minimum Zone during the Late Holocene

This study presents a high-resolution record of δ15Nsed, which serves as a proxy for water column denitrification and oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) intensity, from the Soledad Basin in the Eastern Tropical North Pacific OMZ. The Soledad Basin δ15Nsed record is compared to the Pescadero Slope and Santa Barbara Basin (SBB) δ15Nsed records to gain insight into regional variations in the ETNP OMZ. During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 950–1250 CE), Soledad Basin, Pescadero Slope, and SBB records exhibit coherent trends suggesting that there was general water column oxygenation stability. During the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1350–1850 CE), Soledad Basin and SBB showed a similar decreasing trend in δ15Nsed values while the Pescadero Slope δ15Nsed exhibited an increasing trend until values abruptly declined between 1740 and 1840 CE. We suggest that increased δ15Nsed variability and the different trends at the Pescadero Slope during the LIA are due to the influence of the North American monsoon (NAM), which can suppress upwelling when enhanced and result in OMZ contraction. The decoupling between the Soledad Basin, SBB, and the Pescadero Slope could also be due to the increased influence of enriched 15NO3− subarctic waters in the California Current System. Since each site is influenced by local productivity, basin morphology, and regional atmospheric and ocean circulation patterns, we suggest that assessing OMZ fluctuations from multiple sites provides a more comprehensive view of regional OMZ dynamics in response to climate variations.

Deciphering local and regional hydroclimate resolves contradicting evidence on the Asian monsoon evolution

The winter and summer monsoons in Southeast Asia are important but highly variable sources of rainfall. Current understanding of the winter monsoon is limited by conflicting proxy observations, resulting from the decoupling of regional atmospheric circulation patterns and local rainfall dynamics. These signals are difficult to decipher in paleoclimate reconstructions. Here, we present a winter monsoon speleothem record from Southeast Asia covering the Holocene and find that winter and summer rainfall changed synchronously, forced by changes in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. In contrast, regional atmospheric circulation shows an inverse relation between winter and summer controlled by seasonal insolation over the Northern Hemisphere. We show that disentangling the local and regional signal in paleoclimate reconstructions is crucial in understanding and projecting winter and summer monsoon variability in Southeast Asia.

Temporal and Spatial Variations of Potential and Actual Evapotranspiration and the Driving Mechanism over Equatorial Africa Using Satellite and Reanalysis-Based Observation

This study investigated the actual evapotranspiration (AET) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) seasonality, trends, abrupt changes, and driving mechanisms with global sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation patterns over Equatorial Africa (EQA) during 1980–2020. The spatiotemporal characteristics of mean ET were computed based on a 40-year average at annual and seasonal scales. The Mann-Kendall statistical test, the Sen slope test, and the Bayesian test were used to analyze trends and detect abrupt changes. The results showed that the mean annual PET (AET) for 1980–2020 was 110 (70) mm. Seasonal mean PET (AET) values were 112 (72) in summer, 110 (85) in autumn, 109 (84) in winter, and 110 (58) in spring. The MK test showed an increasing (decreasing) rate, and the Sen slope identified upward (downward) at a rate of 0.35 (0.05) mm yr−10. The PET and AET abrupt change points were observed to happen in 1995 and 2000. Both dry and wet regions showed observed weak (strong) correlation coefficient values of 0.3 (0.8) between PET/AET and climate factors, but significant spatiotemporal differences existed. Generally, air temperature, soil moisture, and relative humidity best explain ET dynamics rather than precipitation and wind speed. The regional atmospheric circulation patterns are directly linked to ET but vary significantly in space and time. From a policy perspective, these findings may have implications for future water resource management.

Regional atmospheric circulation patterns driving consecutive fog events in the United Arab Emirates

In this study, the link between the occurrence of consecutive fog days in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the associated synoptic-scale circulation is investigated. This is particularly pertinent, as such a link may provide an important predictive skill for a phenomenon that has a pronounced impact on road and air traffic but is still poorly simulated by numerical models. A cluster analysis of all consecutive fog days from January 1983 to December 2021 indicated that the positive phase of the East Atlantic/Western Russia teleconnection pattern, Eastern Pacific La Nina events, and the circumglobal wavenumber 5 pattern promote the occurrence of multiple fog days in the UAE. The fog's radiative impacts, as estimated from satellite data, revealed that the fog in the UAE is more optically thick than that observed elsewhere. A trend analysis over the period 1983 to 2021 revealed that consecutive fog events have become more frequent and longer-lasting but less intense (i.e., associated with higher values of visibility). The fog's spatial extent over the UAE at its mature stage has also decreased over time. An analysis of the trends in the surface and top of atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes indicated that over the period 2000–2021, the fog clouds have likely become less reflective, with a statistically significant decrease in the surface downward shortwave and TOA upward longwave radiation fluxes. Long-term measurements of fog microphysics in the region are needed to better understand the variability in the properties of the fog cloud droplets.

Extreme heat loss in the Northern Red Sea and associated atmospheric forcing

A regional, high-resolution reanalysis was analyzed to explore extreme heat loss events in the Northern Red Sea (NRS) and their links to specific regional atmospheric circulation patterns. Such events are determinant for the overturning circulation of the Red Sea and occur frequently between November and March, with maximum frequency during December and January. During these events, the most intense heat loss, often with daily-averaged values lower than -1000 W/m2, is found over the southern half of the Gulf of Aqaba and along the western coastline of the open NRS. Analyses of the spatial modes of variability of these events suggest that the majority of them extend over the entire NRS in an almost uniform way; however, secondary, nonuniform patterns related to regional adjustment in the wind field are also identified. The uniform cold outbursts are associated with distinct atmospheric circulation patterns, which favor the transfer of cold air masses from higher latitudes over the eastern Mediterranean Seaviaa strong northwest wind field. Nonuniform events affect considerable parts of the NRS and occur when cold and dry air masses reach the NRS through the Middle East and the northern part of the Arabian Peninsula. The regional sea level pressure drives a clockwise rotation of the wind field that ultimately blows from the northeast/east direction. This rotation of the wind field favors local intensification and lee areas defined by the complex topography and characteristic gaps in the mountain chain along the eastern coastline of the NRS, reflecting the differentiations in the spatial distribution of the heat flux minima.

Seasonal Dependence of Aerosol Data Assimilation and Forecasting Using Satellite and Ground-Based Observations

This study examines the performance of a data assimilation and forecasting system that simultaneously assimilates satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) and ground-based PM10 and PM2.5 observations into the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). The data assimilation case for the surface PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations exhibits a higher consistency with the observed data by showing more correlation coefficients than the no-assimilation case. The data assimilation also shows beneficial impacts on the PM10 and PM2.5 forecasts for South Korea for up to 24 h from the updated initial condition. This study also finds deficiencies in data assimilation and forecasts, as the model shows a pronounced seasonal dependence of forecasting accuracy, on which the seasonal changes in regional atmospheric circulation patterns have a significant impact. In spring, the forecast accuracy decreases due to large uncertainties in natural dust transport from the continent by north-westerlies, while the model performs reasonably well in terms of anthropogenic emission and transport in winter. When the south-westerlies prevail in summer, the forecast accuracy increases with the overall reduction in ambient concentration. The forecasts also show significant accuracy degradation as the lead time increases because of systematic model biases. A simple statistical correction that adjusts the mean and variance of the forecast outputs to resemble those in the observed distribution can maintain the forecast skill at a practically useful level for lead times of more than a day. For a categorical forecast, the skill score of the data assimilation run increased by up to 37% compared to that of the case with no assimilation, and the skill score was further improved by 10% through bias correction.

Datasets for Publication "Regional Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Favouring Consecutive Fog Events in the United Arab Emirates"

Datasets for Publication "Regional Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Favouring Consecutive Fog Events in the United Arab Emirates"

Datasets for Publication "Regional Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Favouring Consecutive Fog Events in the United Arab Emirates"

Datasets for Publication "Regional Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Favouring Consecutive Fog Events in the United Arab Emirates"

Datasets for Publication "Regional Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Favouring Consecutive Fog Events in the United Arab Emirates"

Datasets for Publication "Regional Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Favouring Consecutive Fog Events in the United Arab Emirates"

A circulation-based performance atlas of the CMIP5 and 6 models for regional climate studies in the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes

Abstract. Global climate models are a keystone of modern climate research. In most applications relevant for decision making, they are assumed to provide a plausible range of possible future climate states. However, these models have not been originally developed to reproduce the regional-scale climate, which is where information is needed in practice. To overcome this dilemma, two general efforts have been made since their introduction in the late 1960s. First, the models themselves have been steadily improved in terms of physical and chemical processes, parametrization schemes, resolution and implemented climate system components, giving rise to the term “Earth system model”. Second, the global models' output has been refined at the regional scale using limited area models or statistical methods in what is known as dynamical or statistical downscaling. For both approaches, however, it is difficult to correct errors resulting from a wrong representation of the large-scale circulation in the global model. Dynamical downscaling also has a high computational demand and thus cannot be applied to all available global models in practice. On this background, there is an ongoing debate in the downscaling community on whether to thrive away from the “model democracy” paradigm towards a careful selection strategy based on the global models' capacity to reproduce key aspects of the observed climate. The present study attempts to be useful for such a selection by providing a performance assessment of the historical global model experiments from CMIP5 and 6 based on recurring regional atmospheric circulation patterns, as defined by the Jenkinson–Collison approach. The latest model generation (CMIP6) is found to perform better on average, which can be partly explained by a moderately strong statistical relationship between performance and horizontal resolution in the atmosphere. A few models rank favourably over almost the entire Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes. Internal model variability only has a small influence on the model ranks. Reanalysis uncertainty is an issue in Greenland and the surrounding seas, the southwestern United States and the Gobi Desert but is otherwise generally negligible. Along the study, the prescribed and interactively simulated climate system components are identified for each applied coupled model configuration and a simple codification system is introduced to describe model complexity in this sense.

Relating snowfall observations to Greenland ice sheet mass changes: an atmospheric circulation perspective

Abstract. Snowfall is the major source of mass for the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) but the spatial and temporal variability of snowfall and the connections between snowfall and mass balance have so far been inadequately quantified. By characterizing local atmospheric circulation and utilizing CloudSat spaceborne radar observations of snowfall, we provide a detailed spatial analysis of snowfall variability and its relationship to Greenland mass balance, presenting first-of-their-kind maps of daily spatial variability in snowfall from observations across Greenland. For identified regional atmospheric circulation patterns, we show that the spatial distribution and net mass input of snowfall vary significantly with the position and strength of surface cyclones. Cyclones west of Greenland driving southerly flow contribute significantly more snowfall than any other circulation regime, with each daily occurrence of the most extreme southerly circulation pattern contributing an average of 1.66 Gt of snow to the Greenland ice sheet. While cyclones east of Greenland, patterns with the least snowfall, contribute as little as 0.58 Gt each day. Above 2 km on the ice sheet where snowfall is inconsistent, extreme southerly patterns are the most significant mass contributors, with up to 1.20 Gt of snowfall above this elevation. This analysis demonstrates that snowfall over the interior of Greenland varies by up to a factor of 5 depending on regional circulation conditions. Using independent observations of mass changes made by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), we verify that the largest mass increases are tied to the southerly regime with cyclones west of Greenland. For occurrences of the strongest southerly pattern, GRACE indicates a net mass increase of 1.29 Gt in the ice sheet accumulation zone (above 2 km elevation) compared to the 1.20 Gt of snowfall observed by CloudSat. This overall agreement suggests that the analytical approach presented here can be used to directly quantify snowfall mass contributions and their most significant drivers spatially across the GrIS. While previous research has implicated this same southerly regime in ablation processes during summer, this paper shows that ablation mass loss in this circulation regime is nearly an order of magnitude larger than the mass gain from associated snowfall. For daily occurrences of the southerly circulation regime, a mass loss of approximately 11 Gt is observed across the ice sheet despite snowfall mass input exceeding 1 Gt. By analyzing the spatial variability of snowfall and mass changes, this research provides new insight into connections between regional atmospheric circulation and GrIS mass balance.

Large-scale climate signals of a European oxygen isotope network from tree rings

Abstract. We investigate the climate signature of δ18O tree-ring records from sites distributed all over Europe covering the last 400 years. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis reveals two distinct modes of variability on the basis of the existing δ18O tree-ring records. The first mode is associated with anomaly patterns projecting onto the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and reflects a multi-seasonal climatic signal. The ENSO link is pronounced for the last 130 years, but it is found to be weak over the period from 1600 to 1850, suggesting that the relationship between ENSO and the European climate may not be stable over time. The second mode of δ18O variability, which captures a north–south dipole in the European δ18O tree-ring records, is related to a regional summer atmospheric circulation pattern, revealing a pronounced centre over the North Sea. Locally, the δ18O anomalies associated with this mode show the same (opposite) sign with temperature (precipitation). Based on the oxygen isotopic signature derived from tree rings, we argue that the prevailing large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and the related teleconnections can be analysed beyond instrumental records.

Effects of two different La Niña types on the South American rainfall

The paper tests if the two La Niña (LN) types can be distinguished from each other using their climate impacts on northeastern Brazil (NEB). To this end, all LN events during the 1901–2010 period followed by a wet or dry rainy season (from February to April) in NEB are classified into two categories: WET‐LN and DRY‐LN. The global and regional anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns and the rainfall anomaly patterns in South America associated with the two cases are analysed. The WET‐LN and DRY‐LN events present, respectively, the eastern Pacific LN and central Pacific LN sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly features in the tropical Pacific. On the other hand, the WET‐LN features an interhemispheric SST dipole pattern in the tropical Atlantic, and the DRY‐LN, colder‐than‐normal surface waters in the tropical South Atlantic (TSA) and equatorial Atlantic during MAM(+1). The two analysed cases show regional differential circulation patterns in all seasons. The anomalous wetness over northern and northwestern South America occurs for the WET‐LN type during JJA(0)–DJF(+1) and for the DRY‐LN type, during DJF(+1)–MAM(+1). The anomalous dryness over SESA is more evident for the WET‐LN during JJA(0) and MAM(+1), and for the DRY‐LN, during SON(0). Anomalous dryness occurs in central and eastern South America noted during JJA(0) and DJF(+1) for both cases analysed. The precipitation anomalies in northern South America during DJF(+1) are stronger and more extensive for the DRY‐LN than for the WET‐LN events due to the action of both the anomalous (double) Walker and Hadley cells for the DRY‐LN, in contrast with the exclusive action of an anomalous Walker cell for the WET‐LN case. Also, a double Walker cell drives the dry–wet dipole between northern South America and NEB during MAM(+1) for the DRY‐LN. Our results might be useful mainly for climate monitoring purposes.

Glaciochemical records for the past century from the Qiangtang Glacier No.1 ice core on the central Tibetan Plateau: Likely proxies for climate and atmospheric circulations

Previous studies of glaciochemical records retrieved from the southern and northern sectors of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) have revealed that there are diverse patterns of climate change within this region. However, uncertainty remains regarding changes in the atmospheric environment over the central TP where the Indian monsoonal circulation and westerly winds meet. This study presents a glaciochemical record of the past 112 years from the upper part of the ice core drilled into the Qiangtang Glacier No.1 (QT-1) located in the central TP. The purpose of this study is to understand the glaciochemical controls, if any, and how these controls have been affected by both local climate parameters and atmospheric circulation patterns. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was performed to determine the significance of any chemical components. The results show that the major soluble ions (Na+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+, Cl−, NO3−, NH4+ and SO42−) are predominantly controlled by crustal aerosols and have high loadings on EOF1. Correlation analysis between EOF1 and the annual dust-event frequency recorded by local/regional meteorological stations suggests that the ice core chemical record provides a reasonable proxy for local/regional atmospheric dust loading. Analysis of EOF1 also demonstrates changes that are consistent with regional meteorological parameters and large-scale circulations, revealing a strong link with the glaciochemical record. The windy, cold-dry climate and/or enhanced northwesterly/westerly winds appear to be responsible for the higher atmospheric dust aerosols, leading to higher concentrations of ions. Our analysis also isolated a significant positive correlation between EOF1 and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, suggesting that, as an underlying mechanism, the PDO likely influences the regional climate conditions and atmospheric circulation patterns and thereby the QT-1 ion records. Our findings may, therefore, enhance the understanding of the relationship between chemical records and climatological variations that are preserved in ice cores, improve our knowledge of changes in the composition of the atmosphere and atmospheric circulation over the central TP, and potentially facilitate reconstruction of the paleo-PDO.

Modulation of Sea Ice Melt Onset and Retreat in the Laptev Sea by the Timing of Snow Retreat in the West Siberian Plain

AbstractRecent years have seen growing interest in improving seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice conditions, including the timing of ice melt onset and retreat, especially on the regional scale. This paper investigates potential links between regional sea ice melt onset and retreat in the southern Laptev Sea and retreat of terrestrial snow cover. Past studies have shown that variability of snow extent over Eurasia can substantially impact regional atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Pacific and Arctic Oceans. It is shown here that for the Laptev Sea, earlier melt onset and retreat of sea ice are encouraged by earlier retreat of snow cover over the West Siberian Plain. Earlier snow retreat in spring encourages greater ridging (e.g., at 500 hPa) over the East Siberian Sea through the summer. This results in more frequently southerly flow of warm, moist air over the Laptev Sea. This relationship could provide modest improvements to predictive skill for sea ice melt onset and retreat in the southern Laptev Sea at lead times of approximately 50 and 90 days, respectively. The detrended time series of snow retreat in the West Siberian Plain explains 26 and 29% of the detrended variance of the timing of sea ice melt onset and retreat in southern Laptev Sea, respectively.

The Topographic Evolution of the Central Andes

Changes in topography on Earth, particularly the growth of major mountain belts like the Central Andes, have a fundamental impact on regional and global atmospheric circulation patterns. These patterns, in turn, affect processes such as precipitation, erosion, and sedimentation. Over the last two decades, various geochemical, geomorphologic, and geologic approaches have helped identify when, where, and how quickly topography has risen in the past. The current spatio-temporal picture of Central Andean growth is now providing insight into which deep-Earth processes have left their imprint on the shape of the Earth's surface.

Possible Icelandic Tephra Found in European Colle Gnifetti Glacier

AbstractVolcanic ash (tephra) provides unique time markers (isochrons) that are often used as an independent age‐control tool for stratigraphic correlations of paleoclimate archives from ice cores. However, little credence has been given to the notion of finding tephra in ice cores collected in the European Alps because of the relatively large distance from volcanic sources and the presumed nature of regional atmospheric circulation patterns. We filtered particles from melted ice core drilling chips gathered roughly every meter during a 2013 drilling operation at Colle Gnifetti glacier in the Swiss‐Italian Alps (45°55.74′N, 7°52.58′E, 4450 m asl). One filter, preliminarily dated to the nineteenth century by annual layer counting, contained a group of six visually similar tephra particles. Analyzing their chemistry using a scanning electron microscope equipped with an energy‐dispersive x‐ray spectrometer established that the six particles were volcanic in origin and are very similar in composition (a distinctive geochemical signature), pointing to a single volcanic eruption source. We proposed that one of several massive nineteenth century Eastern Icelandic eruptions is a potential source given eruption timing, size, tephra dispersion area, and similarities in chemical composition. This first finding of tephra in an Alpine ice core contributes to a regional tephrochronological framework that can be adapted for future correlation among different paleoclimate sequences.

Montane ecosystem productivity responds more to global circulation patterns than climatic trends

Regional ecosystem productivity is highly sensitive to inter-annual climate variability, both within and outside the primary carbon uptake period. However, Earth system models lack sufficient spatial scales and ecosystem processes to resolve how these processes may change in a warming climate. Here, we show, how for the European Alps, mid-latitude Atlantic ocean winter circulation anomalies drive high-altitude summer forest and grassland productivity, through feedbacks among orographic wind circulation patterns, snowfall, winter and spring temperatures, and vegetation activity. Therefore, to understand future global climate change influence to regional ecosystem productivity, Earth systems models need to focus on improvements towards topographic downscaling of changes in regional atmospheric circulation patterns and to lagged responses in vegetation dynamics to non-growing season climate anomalies.

Interannual variability of rainfall characteristics over southwestern Madagascar

The interannual variability of daily frequency of rainfall [>1 mm/day] and heavy rainfall [>30 mm/day] is studied for the southwestern region of Madagascar, which is relatively arid compared to the rest of the island. Attention is focused on the summer rainy season from December to March at four stations (Morondava, Ranohira, Toliara and Taolagnaro), whose daily rainfall data covering the period 1970–2000 were obtained from the Madagascar Meteorological Service. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was found to have a relatively strong correlation with wet day frequency at each station and, particularly, for Toliara in the extreme southwest. In terms of seasonal rainfall totals, most El Nino (La Nina) summers receive below (above) average amounts. An ENSO connection with heavy rainfall events was less clear. However, for heavy rainfall events, the associated atmospheric circulation displays a Southern Annular Mode-like pattern throughout the hemisphere. For ENSO years and the neutral seasons 1979/80, 1981/82 which had large anomalies in wet day frequency, regional atmospheric circulation patterns consisted of strong anomalies in low-level moisture convergence and uplift over and near southwestern Madagascar that made conditions correspondingly more or less favourable for rainfall. Dry (wet) summers in southern Madagascar were also associated with an equatorward (poleward) displacement of the ITCZ in the region.

Key drivers controlling stable isotope variations in daily precipitation of Costa Rica: Caribbean Sea versus Eastern Pacific Ocean moisture sources

Costa Rica is located on the Central American Isthmus, which receives moisture inputs directly from the Caribbean Sea and the Eastern Pacific Ocean. This location includes unique mountainous and lowland microclimates, but only limited knowledge exists about the impact of relief and regional atmospheric circulation patterns on precipitation origin, transport, and isotopic composition. Therefore, the main scope of this project is to identify the key drivers controlling stable isotope variations in daily-scale precipitation of Costa Rica. The monitoring sites comprise three strategic locations across Costa Rica: Heredia (Central Valley), Turrialba (Caribbean slope), and Caño Seco (South Pacific slope). Sporadic dry season rain is mostly related to isolated enriched events ranging from −5.8‰ to −0.9‰ δ18O. By mid-May, the Intertropical Convergence Zone reaches Costa Rica resulting in a notable depletion in isotope ratios (up to −18.5‰ δ18O). HYSPLIT air mass back trajectories indicate the strong influence on the origin and transport of precipitation of three main moisture transport mechanisms, the Caribbean Low Level Jet, the Colombian Low Level Jet, and localized convection events. Multiple linear regression models constructed based on Random Forests of surface meteorological information and atmospheric sounding profiles suggest that lifted condensation level and surface relative humidity are the main factors controlling isotopic variations. These findings diverge from the recognized ‘amount effect’ in monthly composite samples across the tropics. Understanding of stable isotope dynamics in tropical precipitation can be used to a) enhance groundwater modeling efforts in ungauged basins where scarcity of long-term monitoring data drastically limit current and future water resources management, b) improve the re-construction of paleoclimatic records in the Central American land bridge, c) calibrate and validate regional circulation models.