Regime Resilience Research Articles

Regime support in Singapore: from enigma to ‘new normal’

ABSTRACT Singapore is seen as an outlier or abnormal case by political scientists, defying predictions in the social science literature about the causal connection between economic development and democratization. Using data from three different waves of the Asian Barometer Survey (ABS), we found that Singapore’s regime resilience is a product of citizen support for the government’s performance in providing economic welfare, together with positive evaluations of the current regime. But our findings also indicate that the degree to which these factors influence regime resilience has changed over time. What we found suggest that Singapore’s regime resilience cannot be simply reduced to elite repression, or an electorate that has chosen to trade freedom for economic development. The consistent electoral support received by the ruling party in Singapore is the product of a more complex relationship with democracy than just a vote for authoritarianism or prioritizing economic development over democracy.

NATO’s Artificial Intelligence Strategy and Interoperability Challenges: The Case of Turkey

ABSTRACT The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) has significantly changed military applications, creating new competitive advantages and shifting the global balance of power. This article examines NATO’s AI strategy and the associated interoperability challenges, with a particular focus on Turkey. NATO’s AI strategy seeks to enhance interoperability among its member states by fostering the integration of AI technologies into military capabilities. However, achieving this goal is complicated by the varying levels of AI technological advancement, divergent national AI-military strategies and differing geopolitical considerations among member countries. Using Turkey as a case study, this paper explores how the rapid development of AI-based military drones contributes to Turkey’s strategic autonomy and enhances regime resilience while also highlighting certain interoperability considerations within NATO. The analysis underlines the need for a cohesive approach to AI integration that addresses these disparities to maintain NATO’s collective defence capabilities.

A Loyal Base: Support for Authoritarian Regimes in Times of Crisis

Does citizen belief in the non-instrumental principles of the political regime, such as strongman leadership, patriotism, or attachment to a charismatic leader, collectively known as normative support, help stabilize authoritarian regimes? While a large literature recognizes that authoritarian regimes depend on popular support to lower the costs of staying in power, existing research mainly views mass support for these regimes as instrumental, fuelled by performance. Using novel experimental evidence from two original online surveys fielded in Turkey and observational data, we find high levels of normative support for Turkey’s authoritarian rule. Further, our results demonstrate that instrumental and normative dimensions of support may be more closely related than previously theorized. Importantly, we show that both forms of support prevent voter defections in times of crisis. These findings, which revisit the importance of citizens’ support for regime resilience, have implications for research on mass opinion and defection cascades in electoral autocracies.

Multilateral financial flows and state–business relations in Morocco

ABSTRACT Political economy explanations of regime resilience often look at domestic support bases and patronage systems. Foreign aid to the state is seen as a direct form of propping up regimes. This article attempts to track the flow of foreign assistance to one part of the domestic support base of a regime, namely the economic elite, thereby making a connection between domestic explanations and foreign support explanations of regime resilience. The core argument of this article is that multilateral financial flows from Western dominated institutions may preserve regimes in the Middle East and North Africa. Multilateral flows from the World Bank Group, the European Investment Bank, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development went to regime insiders and thus potentially strengthened existing economic elites during the time in which the former Islamist opposition party led a coalition government. I draw on the linkage dimension of Levitsky and Way’s model to show the importance of specifying the nature and destination of multilateral financial ties with Morocco’s private sector. This contribution helps us link the international dimension to the domestic political economy. It thus potentially adds to our understanding of monarchical regime resilience post-Arab Spring by highlighting how multilateral financial institutions support an important part of the economic elite.

Voices from within: Tracing Chinese Public Perceptions of Democracy in the New Era

AbstractDespite the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) emphasis on whole process people’s democracy and democracy with Chinese characteristics, the type of democracy desired by the Chinese people remains debatable. Using two nationwide surveys conducted in 2015 and 2019, this study examines how ordinary Chinese people view democracy during Xi Jinping’s new era. Acknowledging the constraints of conventional methodologies, this study adopts a novel approach that uses automated text analysis to dissect open-ended survey responses about democracy. The results reveal that Chinese citizens primarily associate democracy with freedom of speech, consultation, and minben rather than competitive elections. Furthermore, this study reveals that a higher level of education, more frequent internet usage, and higher household income are positively correlated with a liberal perspective on democracy. This suggests that although the Chinese communist regime may not face immediate pressure to implement open elections, growing support for consultation and freedom may necessitate a greater focus on procedural democracy building by the CCP. By supplementing traditional research methods, this study contributes to a better understanding of China’s regime resilience and its potential future trajectories.

‘Diffuse Support’ and Authoritarian Regime Resilience: Azerbaijanism vis-à-vis Azerbaijan’s Talysh Minority

Abstract This article asks what role does the official national identity discourse play in building authoritarian resilience in Azerbaijan, and how do alternative narratives of particular historical events impact such resilience-building efforts? The discourse of Azerbaijanism is a source of diffuse support legitimizing the authoritarian regime in Azerbaijan. This is largely due to the role played by the ruling family in Azerbaijanism and the emphasis that is placed upon that family’s ability to resolve internal and external threats to the developing nation-state. Alternative narrations of historical memories – such as those regarding the establishment of the Talysh-Mughan (Autonomous) Republic during the summer of 1993 – act as ‘hidden transcripts’ that shed light upon the cracks in the regime’s façade, challenging its claims to historical and other ‘truths’. In so doing, ‘hidden’ alternative transcripts challenge the legitimacy of the governing regime, testing the first of Gerschewski’s (2013) three pillars of authoritarian regime stability (i.e., legitimation, repression, and co-optation).

Dictatorship and Information: Authoritarian Regime Resilience in Communist Europe and China by Martin K. Dimitrov, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2023, xix + 470 pp.

<i>Dictatorship and Information: Authoritarian Regime Resilience in Communist Europe and China</i> by Martin K. Dimitrov, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2023, xix + 470 pp.

Authoritarian Legality and State Capitalism in China

This review addresses three questions surrounding authoritarian legality and state capitalism in China. First, what is legality, and does it exist in China's Leninist single-party state? Scholars who characterize the system as order maintenance find the absence of legality. Those employing dual-state and instrumentalist views of law find partial legality. Scholars promoting the notion of bare legality find complete legality. Second, does authoritarian legality strengthen regime legitimacy? Scholars agree that the state seeks legitimation through its embrace of authoritarian legality. Empirical research tests this claim. Third, is China in transition from plan to market, and what is the role of law in state capitalism? The teleology of the transition paradigm overlooks illiberal underpinnings of property rights and factor markets. Answers to these questions help explain regime resilience, economic growth, economic crisis, and inequality in China. Both the institution of the dual state and the perpetuation of plan elements reinforce state power.

Response to Lucan Way’s Review of Dictatorship and Information: Authoritarian Regime Resilience in Communist Europe and China

Response to Lucan Way’s Review of <i>Dictatorship and Information: Authoritarian Regime Resilience in Communist Europe and China</i>

Dictatorship and Information: Authoritarian Regime Resilience in Communist Europe and China. By Martin K. Dimitrov. New York: Oxford University Press, 2023. 496p. $99.00 cloth, $34.95 paper.

Dictatorship and Information: Authoritarian Regime Resilience in Communist Europe and China. By Martin K. Dimitrov. New York: Oxford University Press, 2023. 496p. $99.00 cloth, $34.95 paper.

Judging Collective Labour Disputes in People's Courts: Is There a Right to Strike?

Abstract: To mitigate collective actions arising from labour disputes, the Chinese central authority has promoted reforms regarding trade unions and the judicial system. The author examines court judgements of collective labour disputes involving strikes and finds that these reforms have led the courts to deny the right to strike through informal institutionalisation. In conjunction with the fact that political centralisation impeded trade union reforms, these reforms have not effectively enhanced the authoritarian regime's resilience.

The Rise of Pro-Regime Intellectuals and Their Mass Persuasion Strategies on China’s Internet

ABSTRACT Mass persuasion is crucial to politics, and sophisticated leaders utilize political persuasion to influence citizens’ attitudes and emotions, alter their behaviors, and solicit regime support. In recent decades, a variety of actors have engaged in mass persuasion on China’s internet. Using online ethnography and archival research, this study examines a newly emerged but less studied group—pro-regime intellectuals and their online mass persuasion strategies. First, we find that pro-regime intellectuals act as outspoken critics of the West to promote China-centric theories by utilizing their academic knowledge and reasoning. Meanwhile, given their close government connections, they stand as intermediaries between the state and society to channel public discontent and articulate public policy. Furthermore, they proactively adapt to cyberculture by interacting and cultivating close bonds with netizens, as well as by collaborating with platforms to attract public attention. By deciphering this set of mass persuasion strategies, this article contributes to our understanding of how pro-regime intellectuals’ digital mass persuasion helps maintain the state’s discursive hegemony, which facilitates regime resilience in the era of social media.

Book Review: Dictatorship and Information: Authoritarian Regime Resilience in Communist Europe and China by Martin K. Dimitrov

Book Review: <i>Dictatorship and Information: Authoritarian Regime Resilience in Communist Europe and China</i> by Martin K. Dimitrov

Political Discourse in China: How Does China Frame Hong Kong Protests to Its Domestic Audience?

The Hong Kong pro-democracy protests, starting from June 9, 2019, have presented a challenge to the Chinese regime. How has Chinese official media responded to this crisis on the internet? How has the regime framed the anti-regime protests to its mainland audience? In this paper, I describe the strategies used by the Chinese propaganda apparatus to enhance regime resilience. Using text analysis and data collected from Chinese official media, I show that China uses three main discursive devices in reporting on the Hong Kong protests to its domestic audience. First, the regime draws a clear line between in-group and out-group members. Second, the regime tries to promote internal solidarity by emphasizing unifying values such as nationalism and patriotism among in-group members to prevent influence from out-group members. Finally, the regime presents an external enemy to its domestic audience. In addition, using data collected from The New York Times, I also show a comparison between the Western framing and the Chinese framing of the movement.

Remaking Bonds: Adaptive Party Linkage-building in Contemporary China

The legitimacy and vitality of all political regimes require the presence of linkages between rulers and their citizens. Current scholarship has identified different modes of political linkages and focused mainly on liberal-democratic countries, neglecting studies of non-Western regimes which also construct dynamic linkages to remain responsive to citizen demands and mobilise political support. This article addresses the critical question of why and how parties that do not have to compete for power establish linkages with their citizens. China presents a crucial case in this inquiry, since the Communist Party of China (CPC) strategically diversifies and creatively upgrades linkage relationships with its citizens beyond Western-style competitive elections. With first-hand data collected from 11 fieldwork sites across eastern, middle and western China, this article examines the linkage strategies, mechanisms and tactics the CPC has employed to respond to an increasingly complex society and to serve multiple purposes. This research attempts to offer a new conceptual framework for understanding party regime resilience, provide insights into the general theory of party linkage, and to encourage comparative studies of party linkage across different regime types.

Does Performance Competition Impact China's Leadership Behaviour? Re-examining the Promotion Tournament Hypothesis

AbstractHow can China develop so quickly and yet maintain stability? Most scholars pinpoint the efforts of China's local government leaders as a primary factor. Regarding what motivates these leaders, however, scholars display wide disagreement. The widely accepted “promotion tournament” hypothesis stresses competition among local leaders as the driving force, but empirical test results vary considerably and create controversy. We argue that tests of promotion competition should target leadership behaviour rather than institutional inducements; the latter are, at best, a necessary condition of the former. Informed by extensive fieldwork, this study proposes an alternative and more direct approach to verifying the promotion tournament hypothesis by examining the impacts of promotion competition on leaders’ performance efforts. Our test results show, however, that competition for promotion has no significant impact on local leaders’ behaviour, thereby indicating that the promotion tournament hypothesis cannot be the primary explanation for China's economic achievements and regime resilience. In so doing, our study illuminates the oversimplified assumptions behind a prevailing proposition in Chinese politics and offers empirically informed insights into the tensions between political institutions and leadership behaviour.

Founding Myth, Institutional Adaptation, and Regime Resilience in China

To explain the factors behind the regime resilience in China, this article focuses on the foundational and institutional resources that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) accumulated in the earlier stages of regime development and their lasting influence on regime trajectory. At the stage of regime foundation, the CCP successfully constructed the founding myth of the party-state as the foundational resource to legitimize its rule. At the later stage of regime adaptation, institutional adaptation during the process of achieving modernization allowed the CCP to accumulate substantial institutional resources to further buttress the regime. While negotiating the space between state and society, the CCP regime demonstrated high capacity in granting more autonomy to market actors to accelerate growth while increasing the embeddedness of economic strata in the system through informal and formal institutional arrangements. When confronted with a serious crisis, the CCP was able to draw strength from the foundational and institutional resources to survive. This article argues that the CCP’s efforts in accumulating strength at the early stages of regime development continue to exert strong influence on China’s regime trajectory at later stages.

Digital activism and collective mourning by Chinese netizens during COVID-19.

This study examines the discursive practice of mourning and commenting by netizens on the final social media post made by Dr Li Wenliang, regarding it as a form of political participation and competitive discursive politics enacted in cyberspace. Discourse theory is applied to conduct discourse analysis on 4000 comments. We identified two strategies that netizens used to establish an alternative space for discourse. The first involved hidden protests expressed through multi-semantic mourning, avoiding suppression by indirectly challenging official authorities. Second, through engagement with microblogs, netizens applied personalized narratives to form a collective memory and a counter-memory space that departed from the official normative narrative. Discursive activities enacted by netizens stimulated the political agenda of resilient adjustment on the part of the authorities, leading the government to accept and incorporate public demands into policies through strategic rectification. These findings help to better understand the significant power of disorganized connective action that is reliant on affective citizens and the further development of regime resilience on the part of the Chinese political system in response to digital activities.

Amusing Ourselves to Loyalty? Entertainment, Propaganda, and Regime Resilience in China

Is it possible to form “soft autocracy” that manages citizens by taking away their sense of resistance? This paper suggests that the rise of entertainment media in autocracies enables the rulers to maintain their resilience through a soft approach, thereby avoiding costly heavy-handed measures. Such a soft approach can work because entertainment media, like “fictitious pleasure drugs,” undo audiences’ sophistication so that people are susceptible to autocratic propaganda. By analyzing a Chinese data set, via instrumented regressions, this paper shows that a one standard deviation increase in people’s interest in entertainment media is associated with an increase of almost 20% in both their satisfaction with the current regime and their anti-Western hostility. Furthermore, the findings show a positive relationship between people’s entertainment media interest and their acceptation of indoctrination by state media. In short, entertainment media contribute to China’s regime stability through “amusing ordinary citizens to loyalty.”

Chinese politics and comparative authoritarianism: institutionalization and adaptation for regime resilience

AbstractChina's authoritarian regime under the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) remains resilient and responsive to domestic and international threats to its survival, especially considering the inherent instability of other authoritarian regimes. What strategies allow the CCP to stay in power? How do institutions help the CCP to sustain one-party rule, if at all? How does the regime maintain centralized rule over its vast population and territory? Finally, how does the regime respond to the people's demands and dissatisfactions? This review essay discusses how the growing literature of comparative authoritarianism helps (or does not help) us to answer these questions. It discusses three books – one on comparative authoritarianism and two on Chinese politics. InHow Dictatorships Work: Power, Personalization, and Collapse, the authors (i.e., Barbara Geddes, Joseph Wright, and Erica Frantz) test various hypotheses exploring the issues regarding the central political processes that shape the policy choices of authoritarian regimes, such as seizing power, consolidation of elites, information gathering, and how dictatorships break down. Are their findings consistent or contradictory with observation of Chinese authoritarian politics? To answer this question, we draw empirical evidence from Bruce Dickson'sThe Dictator's Dilemma: The Chinese Communist Party's Strategy for Survivaland Min Ye'sThe Belt Road and Beyond: State Mobilized Globalization in China, 1998–2018. These books suggest why China's authoritarian regime remains resilient.