Regime Dynamics Research Articles

Electoral Mobilization and Authoritarian Elections: Evidence from Post-Soviet Russia

Despite extensive research on electoral turnout in developed democracies, we know relatively little about the determinants of electoral participation in (electoral) autocracies. Yet, electoral mobilization is crucial to understanding electoral authoritarian regime dynamics and democratic regression. This article studies the ‘socioeconomic roots’ of electoral authoritarianism by using original local-level data from a prominent contemporary electoral authoritarian regime, Russia. The article shows how the electoral mobilization of certain institutionally and socioeconomically state-dependent demographic sectors was a key part in Russia’s transition from a competitive to hegemonic authoritarian regime between 2000 and 2004. An original local-level data set allows us to test the hypotheses using multilevel models, controlling for several socioeconomic and contextual variables at both regional and local levels. The results support the hypotheses of electoral mobilization in specific demographic areas and show interesting variations in turnout patterns between the subnational units.

Leverage and linkage: how regionalism shapes regime dynamics in Africa

Differences in African regime dynamics are clustered in sub-regions and thus might not be driven entirely by domestic variables such as the coercive capacity of states or the cohesion of ruling parties. The main argument of the paper is that leverage by regional organisations and by regional hegemons as well as specific types of regional linkages matter for domestic political developments. There is huge variation in terms of the competencies of regional organisations to influence democratisation processes, a varying availability of hegemons to enforce regional democratic standards and varying degrees of leverage vis-a-vis member states, which partly explain the regional patterns of regime dynamics. In the African context regional linkage is important in explaining how leverage is used by regional organisations and hegemons.

Hydrodynamic variability of the Cretan Sea derived from Argo float profiles and multi-parametric buoy measurements during 2010–2012

In this work, we examine the complex hydrology of the Cretan Sea, an important area which affects the dynamics of the Eastern Mediterranean basin. We use T/S profile data derived from the first Argo float deployed in the area during June 2010 within the framework of the Greek Argo program. Temperature and salinity profiles were measured over a 2-year period, analyzed, and combined with time series data recorded from the POSEIDON E1-M3A multi-parametric instrumentation platform operating in the area since 2007. The acquired datasets have been enriched with available CTD profiles taken on the mooring site during cruise maintenance surveys. The combined research activities resulted in a large dataset of physical properties allowing extended geographical coverage and an in-depth analysis of the Cretan Sea dynamics during this 2-year period. Data analysis shows significant variability of water masses of different origin at subsurface and deep layers. This confirms previous findings describing the area as transitional with water masses of different origin meeting and interacting. Furthermore, additional features of the area are described combining information from satellite altimetry. In this study, new circulation systems are identified at intermediate and subsurface layers affecting both the dynamic behavior of the basin’s upper thermocline and the intermediate/deep water mass tempo-spatial variability. We further investigate the physical properties of the water column and suggest an updated mesoscale circulation picture based on the dynamics of the variable hydrological regimes of the Cretan Sea basin.

Multi-parametric analysis of earthquake precursors

Many scientists around the world have reported the occurrence of atmospheric anomalies prior to earthquakes. According to the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model, the thermal flux results in temperature rising, humidity and pressure drop, and finally, changes in the velocity line when jet-stream passes through the region over the future epicenter. Using satellite observation, we tried to find out the possible atmospheric disturbances in the surface latent heat flux (SHLF), meteorological features, and jet-stream velocity change before the powerful M = 7.8 Nepal Earthquake on 25 April 2015 and M = 6.6 Taiwan Earthquake on 20 April 2015. To reinforce these observations, a numerical modeling of seismology regime dynamics is also performed. This is the e-book version of the article, published in Russian Journal of Earth Sciences (doi:10.2205/2015ES000553). It is generated from the original source file using LaTeX’s epub.cls class.

Built to Last: Understanding the Link between Democracy and Conflict in the International System

We revisit Gartzke and Weisiger's (2014) claim that development and dyadic difference, rather than democracy or a strong democratic community, drive peace and conflict in the international system. In so doing, we identify important inconsistencies in their theoretical argument. We also find extensive instability and errors in their empirical tests. Corrected analyses support the conclusion that a materially strong global democratic community dampens the onset of militarized violence. In addition, we show that an accurate interpretation of models including Gartzke and Weisiger's “dyadic difference” variable actually supports the conclusion that dyadic democracy reduces conflict. We recommend moving toward a more productive analysis of the interdependence between regime dynamics, political economy, and violence. This involves better theorizing about the emergence of market structures and their pacifying effects, treating global economic and democratic effects as complementary, research designs that carefully adhere to logic, and a continued practice of sharing replication files.

Patronal politics: Eurasian regime dynamics in comparative perspective

1. Introduction 2. Patronal politics and the great power of expectations 3. A patronal-politics reinterpretation of Eurasian history 4. Constitutions, elections, and regime dynamics 5. The emergence of networks and constitutions 6. The building of Eurasia's great power pyramids 7. Revolutions and other presidential ousters 8. Non-revolution in post-Soviet presidential systems 9. After revolution 10. Patronal parliamentarism 11. Explaining post-Soviet regime dynamics 12. Patronal politics in global comparative perspective.

The effects of forest fuel connectivity on spatiotemporal dynamics of Holocene fire regimes in the central boreal forest of North America

Understanding fire regime dynamics is central to predicting forest structure and the compositional dynamics of boreal forests. Spatial and temporal variations in fire frequency in central Canadian boreal forests over the last 10 000 years were examined to evaluate the influence of bottom-up controls on the regional fire regime. We analysed macroscopic charcoal larger than 160mm from sediment cores from six lakes to reconstruct fire history and performed GIS analysis of regional landscape features to investigate how fire frequency has changed temporally and how non-climatic factors may have affected long-term fire frequency. Our generalized linear mixed model revealed that temporal changes in fire return intervals (FRIs) were highly dependent on landscape connectivity as inferred through the abundance of natural firebreaks in the form of open water lakes and wetlands. FRIs did not change significantly among highly connected landscapes throughout the Holocene; in contrast, FRIs were significantly longer among poorly connected landscapes in the early Holocene (10-5 cal ka BP), suggesting that the abundant regional firebreaks limited fire spread. All sites had similar FRIs in the late Holocene. The diminishing influence of firebreaks suggests that the regional climate during the late Holocene has overshadowed the influences of the bottom-up controls on fire activities. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Authoritarian Resurgence: Autocratic Legalism in Venezuela

Abstract: This paper contributes to the literature on dynamics of hybrid regimes, i.e., whether these regimes stay stable, or instead, turn more democratic or more autocratic with time. Venezuela since the mid-2000s is an example of the latter. I first focus on how this happened in Venezuela. I posit that the turn toward greater authoritarianism occurred through autocratic legalism. This refers to the use, abuse, and disuse of the law to disempower veto players. I then focus on the “why” question. The main cause of Venezuela’s regime dynamics is a combination of external factors (increasing tolerance from abroad) and the ruling party’s declining electoral competitiveness at home and institutional path dependence.

Introduction: Special Issue on Fire Ecology and Ethnobiology

Anthropologists have been studying fire’s evolutionary and cultural significance for over a century (e.g., Burton 2009; Pausas and Keeley 2009; Wrangham 2009). For several decades ethnobiologists (e.g., Anderson 2005) have addressed why and how people use fire to manage resources and studied the effects of anthropogenic burning. Attention to fire ecology has blossomed during the last decade within anthropology and ecology, as well as in other academic disciplines such as history (e.g., Pyne 1998) and applied fields such as conservation science (Driscoll et al. 2010). This burgeoning interest in fire ecology coincides with explosive growth in climate change science (Oreskes 2004) and therefore presents a strategic opportunity for contributions by ethnobiologists. In May 2013, we launched a conversation about fire ecology and global change at the 36th Annual Conference of the Society of Ethnobiology, and now amplify this debate about the biological and cultural impacts of fires in this special issue on fire ecology and ethnobiology. Authors of the papers in this collection present recent research addressing ecological, social, and political processes in settings where anthropogenic fire is or was central to cultural landscape dynamics. The papers that comprise this issue are ethnographically thick and scientifically rigorous, exemplifying the strengths of applying transdisciplinary scholarship to complex problems. The methodological tools they draw on—such as archaeobotany, geospatial analysis, and ethnography— are diverse. Nevertheless, they speak similarly to crucial issues about how anthropogenic fires link to multi-scale, multi-species processes. Theoretically, they seek to explore the relationships between fire ecology and human ecology in ways that are relevant for biological conservation and cultural diversity. The issue is organized in three sections. The first includes three contributions on prehistoric burning and vegetation change in North America that apply ethnographic and archaeological evidence to reevaluate widely accepted models of human influences on past vegetative landscapes. The second section includes two articles drawing on geospatial analysis, census data, and ethnographic observation to address the ecological dynamics of anthropogenic fire regimes. The final section is comprised of three papers on the use of fire by Indigenous peoples within conservation lands in Australia and Brazil. In the first section, Anderson and Rosenthal draw on extensive demographic, historical, and ethnographic evidence to argue that prehistoric Indigenous

Change in event-scale hydrologic response in two urbanizing watersheds of the Great Lakes St Lawrence Basin 1969–2010

Summary The cumulative impacts of urban land use change on natural stream flow regimes and lotic ecosystems are poorly understood, and generally under-studied within the hydrologic sciences literature. Moreover, flow assessments using daily or monthly flows cannot adequately characterize long-term trends in event-scale flow dynamics in urbanizing watersheds. Accordingly, we analyzed high temporal resolution (15-min flows) growing season discharge records for two urbanizing watersheds in Canada’s Great Lakes Basin, the Don and Humber, over a 42-year period. Results show that total discharge between May 26th and November 15th in the mainstem rivers has increased by about 45%, independent of total rainfall depth, over four decades. Peak rain event flow rates have increased by about 1 m3 s−1 yr−1 in both watersheds and event flow variability has increased two-fold in the Don and five-fold in the Humber. In the Don, the ratio of rising limb event flows to median flow (for the period May 26 to November 15) increased from 13 in the 1970s to 21 in the 2000s. A similar comparison of ratios in the Humber showed higher variation in flow response but also an overall increase relative to the ratio of 14 in the 1970s. In the Don, rising limb event flow acceleration increased 2.4-fold over 4 decades. This study provides a new understanding of the changes in event-scale flow regime dynamics associated with over four decades of intensive urbanization, including increased magnitude of rising limb flows and flow acceleration, and systematic increases in the variability of peak discharges. Overall, our analysis demonstrates marked alteration in total and event flow regimes resulting in chronic perturbation of stream flows. The results also demonstrate an important application of long-term, high temporal resolution hydrological records. Furthermore, we quantify the degree to which hydrologic stationarity within the Don and Humber watersheds has been compromised over four decades, during a period prior to detectable climate-induced changes in rainfall patterns.

Влияние европейской политики соседства на политические режимы стран Восточного партнерства

The study deals with the impact of the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) on political regimes dynamics in Eastern Partnership countries in the period 2007 to 2013. Based on the regime transition theory, Europeanisation perspective and political economy, the research claims to introduce a new theoretical model which allows to combine domestic and international factors of regime dynamics. By using the rational choice institutionalism as an analytical framework, and employing the multi-value qualitative comparative analysis (mvQCA) in combination with case studies of Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine it shows that the ENP could lead to three different outcomes: democratization, stabilization of a hybrid regime, and authoritarian consolidation. The outcomes are explained by the fact that the assistance within the ENP is used by ruling elites for implementation of two conflicting strategies: the strategy of partial political reform equilibrium preservation and the strategy of new political reform equilibrium formation. Variation in the ENP's influence on the dynamics of a particular political regime is dependent on the predominance of one of these strategies, which in turn are mediated by three main domestic factors: the type of political system, the level of political monopolism, and the degree of government effectiveness. The article contains three parts. The first part presents a brief review of the main theoretical approaches to the analysis of political regimes dynamics. A general analytical framework is formulated. The second part shows how the ENP influenced the dynamics of political regimes in Eastern Partnership countries. The third and final part demonstrates the logic of such influence by examples of Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine.

Communism’s “Bright Past”: Loyalty to the Party despite the Gulag

The Soviet Gulag has joined the tragic annals of what has been described as “man’s inhumanity to man”. Yet some prisoners, many of whom were falsely convicted, emerged from the experience maintaining their loyalty to the system of government that was responsible for their imprisonment. The hardship of the camp experience, and the hardship of return, stamped ex-prisoners for life. In camp, they struggled to survive. After camp they struggled to reintegrate, to re-unite, and for Party members, to renew their vows with the Party. This article focusses on Gulag prisoner and returnee accounts that profess enduring faith in the Party and the Communist project. With the materials that have become available, we can now begin to understand this phenomenon. Explanations include: Communism as secular religion, cognitive dissonance, functionalism, and the traumatic bond. As we witness a persistent trend to manage national and public memory by repressing the memory of repression in today’s Russia, the issue of enduring loyalty among Gulag returnees may offer some insight into questions related to national memory and the dynamics of repressive regimes.

The geography of sustainability transitions: Review, synthesis and reflections on an emergent research field

This review covers the recent literature on the geography of sustainability transitions and takes stock with achieved theoretical and empirical insights. The review synthesises and reflects upon insights of relevance for sustainability transitions following from analyses of the importance of place specificity and the geography of inter-organisational relations. It is found that these contributions focus on the geography of niche development rather than regime dynamics, and that there is an emphasis on understanding the importance of place-specificity at the local level. While there is a wide consensus that place-specificity matters there is still little generalisable knowledge about how place-specificity matters for transitions. Most contributions add spatial sensitivity to frameworks from the transitions literature, but few studies suggest alternative frameworks to study sustainability transitions. To address this, the review suggests promising avenues for future research on the geography of sustainability transitions, drawing on recent theoretical advancements in economic geography.

Spatiotemporal variation in flow-dependent recruitment of long-lived riverine fish: Model development and evaluation

Natural flow regimes can play a major role as an overarching ecosystem driver in reproduction and recruitment of riverine fishes. Human needs for freshwater however have altered hydrology of many riverine systems worldwide, threatening fish population sustainability. To understand and predict how spatiotemporal dynamics of flow regimes influence reproductive and recruitment variability, and ultimately population sustainability of shovelnose sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus platorynchus), we develop a spatially explicit (1D) individual-based population model that mechanistically (via energetics-based processes) simulates daily activities (dispersal, spawning, foraging, growth, and survival). With field observations of sturgeon and habitat conditions in a major tributary of the Missouri River system (USA), we calibrate and evaluate the model via pattern-oriented modeling. Model simulation experiments using 17-year environmental time series data showed that seasonal and interannual variation in hydrological conditions plays a major role in timing, location, and magnitude of spawning and recruitment success of sturgeon. During droughts, consecutive weak year-classes resulted in a steady population decline. While low flow and subsequent low prey production limited foraging opportunities and slowed gonad development, these conditions were not severe enough for adults to abort the reproductive cycle. Post-settlement larval sturgeon were however unable to feed efficiently to grow out of a size-dependent ‘predation window’, resulting in high mortality. Slow growth and low survival of larval sturgeon thus likely play a larger role in recruitment failures during droughts than low or lack of spawning events.

A mecânica da instabilidade de regime na américa latina

Este artigo aborda estritamente um único enigma: por que os países que tentaram instaurar uma democracia mais cedo a vivenciaram com menor frequência? As dinâmicas de regime são impulsionadas por dois mecanismos: (1) as democracias se tornam mais duráveis à medida que aumenta a renda per capita; e (2) experiências anteriores com a democracia desestabilizam tanto democracias quanto autocracias. Assim, países que experimentam uma democracia com níveis de renda mais baixos vivenciam maior instabilidade de regime. Além disso, até atingirem um limite mínimo de renda, em qualquer momento há uma probabilidade menor de esses países serem democráticos do que a de países que vivenciam uma democracia pela primeira vez quando sua renda é mais elevada. Portanto, paradoxalmente, a resistência das monarquias europeias contra a democracia resultou em democracias mais estáveis do que as que se seguiram a tentativas pós-independência na América Latina.

Nonperturbative approach to system-reservoir dynamics in the strong-coupling regime and non-Markovian dynamics

We present a method to derive an exact master equation for a bosonic system coupled to a set of other bosonic systems, which plays the role of the reservoir, under the strong-coupling regime, i.e., without resorting to either the rotating-wave or secular approximations. Working with phase-space distribution functions, we verify that the dynamics have two different behaviors. Considering that the initial state is a concentrated wave packet in phase space, we see that the center of this wave packet follows classical mechanics while its shape gets distorted. Moreover, we show that this distortion is caused by the counter-rotating terms as well as thermal fluctuations. Finally, we discuss conditions for non-Markovian dynamics.

Discursive regime dynamics in the Dutch energy transition

Since its introduction in the National Environmental Policy Plan in 2001 the notion of ‘energy transition’ is firmly rooted in the Dutch energy debate. Despite political efforts to shift to a sustainable energy system, the Netherlands is lagging behind other European countries. Scholarly literature generally ascribes such slow developments to the dominant role of incumbents. In this paper we explore how prominent incumbents of the Dutch energy system discursively frame the energy transition by unravelling their existing and evolving storylines. Our results show that decarbonization in the context of a European energy market is currently seen as the dominant driver for the energy transition, linked to discursive elements on keeping the energy supply secure and affordable. We found tensions within this dominant storyline and emerging storylines with the potential to undermine the dominant one. In response, incumbents are discursively repositioning themselves, thereby restructuring coalitions – possibly indicating discursive regime destabilization.

The dynamics of European regulatory regimes in higher education – Challenged prerogatives and evolutionary change

European higher education has witnessed a substantial growth in regulatory arrangements in external quality assurance (EQA) during the last couple of decades. This current article describes the central characteristics and trajectories of this expansion, and discusses drivers of this development drawing on an institutional perspective. Empirically, three distinct, although overlapping, stages in the building up of a regulatory regime are identified – from formalization and agencification of EQA at national level, establishment of common standards at a European level, to the current stage of an emerging global market-based system. This combination of institutional layering, path-dependency, and conversion can be explained by the nature of political context and the ambiguities of regulation of quality in higher education. In the conclusion it is argued that the development of external quality assurance as a regulatory field is an example of how the dynamics of an evolving regulatory regime may in an unexpected way limit the public control of highly institutionalized fields.

An Analysis of Industry Regimes Synchronization in the Eurozone

AbstractGeographical versus industrial diversification has been the subject of much debate in equity investment strategies. This article revisits this issue and analyzes the contention that if national factors have lost importance since the launch of the euro, then the regime dynamics of industry indexes in the eurozone countries should be more similar. Results show a core group of country‐industry indexes sharing the same regime dynamics, which comprise the majority of industry indexes of France and Germany. After the euro launch, a group of industry indexes gained more similarities with the core group of the eurozone – notably industries from Italy, Spain and Finland. Nevertheless, dynamics in a small group of industries did not change. Overall, synchronization between country‐industry indexes has increased except for a small group of industries.

Understanding the seasonal dynamics of phytoplankton biomass and the deep chlorophyll maximum in oligotrophic environments: A Bio‐Argo float investigation

AbstractWe deployed four Bio‐Argo profiling floats in various oligotrophic locations of the Pacific subtropical gyres and Mediterranean Sea to address the seasonal phytoplankton dynamics in the euphotic layer and explore its dependence on light regime dynamics. Results show that there is a similar phytoplankton biomass seasonal pattern in the four observed oceanic regions. In the lower part of the euphotic layer, the seasonal displacement of the deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM) is light driven. During winter, the chlorophyll a concentration ([Chl a]) always increases in the upper euphotic mixed layer. This increase always results from a photoacclimation to the reduced irradiance. Depending on the location, however, the concentration can also be associated with an actual increase in biomass. The winter increase in [Chl a] results in an increase in irradiance attenuation that impacts the position of the isolume (level where the daily integrated photon flux is constant) and DCM, which becomes shallower. In summer when the [Chl a] in the upper layer decreases along with light attenuation, the DCM deepens and becomes closer to (and sometimes reaches) the nitracline, which enhances the phytoplankton biomass at the DCM. The bio‐optical mechanisms and their relationship to light regimes that are revealed by the time series appear to be generic and potentially characteristic of all of the areas where a DCM forms, which is 50% of the open ocean.