Regime-dependent Impulse Response Research Articles

Impulse response function analysis for Markov switching var models

We exactly derive the regime-dependent impulse response functions for a Markov switching vector autoregression (VAR) model in terms of neat matrix expressions in closed form. The key is to recognize that the latent first-order Markov switching process in the model has a VAR(1) representation, and that the model can be cast into a state-space form. Using such a representation, the regime-dependent impulse response function analysis can be processed with respect to either an asymmetric discrete shock or to a symmetric continuous shock. Our results extend and correct those obtained by Ehrmann et al. (2003) and coincide with those by Hamilton (1994) for the case of standard VAR models.

Trader positions and the price of oil in the futures market

The relationship between trader positions in the futures market and Brent oil’s one-month futures price is examined in the context of linear and Markov-switching vector autoregressions. We consider positions by producers, money managers and swap dealers on the Brent crude futures contract. The Bayesian information criterion is used to determine whether the additional regime in the Markov-switching setting is warranted by the data. In the presence of a second regime we quantify the impact of shocks to prices or positions using regime-dependent impulse responses. We find that producers and swap dealers reduce their net positions following a positive price shock, whereas money managers increase them. There is weaker evidence of Brent’s price reacting to shocks in trader positions.

THE ANALYSIS OF THE TRADE BALANCE OF TURKEY IN RESPONSE TO OIL PRICE CHANGES

This study empirically examines the effects of oil prices on the trade balance of Turkey, which depends heavily on oil imports. Unlike the other studies on this subject, in this study, the relationship between oil prices and trade balance is investigated by regime-dependent impulse response functions and forecast error decompositions based on multivariate Threshold VAR (TVAR) model comparing with linear VAR model. The findings suggest that, the relationship between oil prices and trade balances is non-linear. In the regime of higher oil price volatility, components of trade balance respond stronger to oil price shocks than lower regime and linear VAR model. Oil price increases in the high regime deteriorates the total trade balance, non-oil and non-gas trade balance and intermediate trade balance; on the other hand, consumption trade balance of Turkey is positively affected from oil price increases. Additionally, consumption goods trade balance found to be the mostly affected by oil price shocks according to the impulse-response functions and variance decomposition analysis. Finally, the findings obtained from linear VAR and lowest regime are generally similar and has less effect on the trade balance components.

Lead-lag relationship between spot and futures stock indexes: Intraday data and regime-switching models

This paper analyzes the impact of arbitrage opportunity changes on the price discovery process between the DAX30 index and the DAX30 index future within a short time scale. To this end, we use 5-min data, regime-switching models and the regime-dependent impulse response function. The results unveil the presence of nonlinearities in the cointegrating vector and the shortcomings of relying on linear assumptions. We also find that the presence of arbitrage opportunities alters the nature of the lead-lag dynamics: the more arbitrage opportunities, the greater the leading role of the futures market and the more pronounced the impact of unexpected shocks on prices.

The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Aggregate Economic Activity: A Regime Dependent Impulse Response Analysis

Asymmetries in fiscal policies cannot be captured by linear time series models. In order to examine the asymmetry responses of output in different phases of the business cycle, Markov Regime Switching (MRS) model is an alternative technique that is used to achieve the objective. The main objective of this study is to empirically explore the effects of fiscal shocks (spending and taxes) on Pakistan’s overall economic activity GDP while utilizing Markov Switching MS-VAR model. The model is characterized to allow for the variation in mean, coefficients and in error variances. The study results show that the effect of shocks and the size of multiplier varies across regimes confirming the asymmetric behavior of fiscal policy transmission mechanism. Moreover, the impact of positive spending shock has a stronger effect on output in the recession as compared to boom. One surprising result of the study is that the tax shock increases the output both in recession and boom. Lastly, spending and revenue behave a-cyclically.
 JEL Classification Codes: C11; C32; E62

The impact of oil price shocks on Tehran Stock Exchange returns: Application of the Markov switching vector autoregressive models

Global oil price fluctuations have a significant impact on various areas of the financial sector especially the stock market. This is evident in the oil-dominated Iranian economy. This study investigates the impact of world oil price shocks on the Tehran Stock Exchange using the Markov switching vector autoregressive (MS-VAR) model based on two regimes. Key variables for this study are world oil prices and the Tehran Stock Exchange Index. In addition, monthly time series data from 2002 to 2017 is used to estimate the MSIAH(2)-VAR(1) model and calculate the regime-dependent impulse response function of the impact of oil price shocks on the stock market under the different regimes. The findings show that the intercepts, coefficients, and variances of the model are different in both regimes and, based on the transition probability matrix, both the regimes are persistent. Thus, the shocks have both positive and negative impacts on the Tehran Stock Exchange in regimes one and two, respectively. This effect disappears earlier in regime two. Robustness tests employing daily data confirm the results of the monthly data. Nevertheless, regime-dependent analysis can provide a clearer understanding of Iran's economy to policymakers and investors.

Testing the \u2018Fear of Floating\u2019 Hypothesis: A Statistical Analysis for Eight African Countries

This paper revisits the fear of floating hypotheses for eight African countries from the collapse of the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate system in the early 1970s up until December 2017. This long period of calendar time allows us to extend previous studies by examining the fear of floating hypotheses in two distinct ways. First, we look at a set of descriptive statistics to compare the degree of exchange rate flexibility under alternative de jure exchange rate regimes. We find no statistical difference between exchange volatility between declared floaters and fixers, but greater reserve volatility between the floaters, which is suggestive of fear of floating. Second, we use a non-linear, threshold VAR model, estimated for each country, to test for a relationship between exchange rate changes and reserve changes. The results suggest some evidence of a fear of floating for countries which have declared a de jure floating regime, with the regime-dependent impulse responses indicating that exchange rate appreciation due to positive reserve shocks is more prevalent in the high reserve regimes, indicative that level of foreign reserves available are important for their exchange rate policies. In general, although the countries with de jure floating regimes have a lower threshold than those with pegged regimes, reserves adjust by more than the exchange rates showing a fear of floating.

Do gold prices respond to real interest rates? Evidence from the Bayesian Markov Switching VECM model

The goal of this paper is to examine the transmission dynamics between the real interest rate and gold prices in the G7. The methodology follows the Bayesian Markov-Switching Vector Error-Correction (MS-VECM) model, along with regime-dependent impulse response functions, spanning the period 1975–2016. The findings suggest a positive association between gold prices and real interest rates, with the estimates remaining consistently positive and statistically significant across all G7 countries. The results indicate that gold prices can provide hedging services against real interest rate movements mainly during recessionary times. Our results continue to be robust when we extend the bivariate version of our modeling approach to include more drivers for gold prices.

THE REGIME-DEPENDENT EVOLUTION OF CREDIBILITY: A FRESH LOOK AT HONG KONG'S LINKED EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEM

An estimated Markov-switching DSGE modeling framework that allows for parameter shifts across regimes is employed to test the hypothesis of regime-dependent credibility of Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system. The baseline model distinguishes two regimes with respect to the time-series properties of the risk premium. Regime-dependent impulse responses to macroeconomic shocks reveal substantial differences in spreads. To test the sensitivity of the results, a number of robustness checks are performed. The findings contribute to efforts at modeling exchange rate regime credibility as a nonlinear process with two distinct regimes.

How Indian CPI and Industrial Production Respond to Global Oil Price Shocks? Regime-Dependent Impulse Responses

For emerging markets like India, where around 80 percent of the crude requirements are met through imports, it is an imperative task to comprehend impact of global crude oil price shocks on Indian macroeconomic variables. The present study attempts to understand these asymmetric dynamic interactions between global crude oil price shocks and Indian macroeconomic variables by employing Markov switching-Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) regime-dependent impulse responses in level forms. The findings hold an important place in the wake of inflation targeting regime adopted by the monetary policy authorities. The findings highlight the existence of two regimes, namely lower and higher oil price variance regimes. The response of industrial production and consumer prices is different towards oil price shocks in different regimes. In the lower oil variance regime, there is negative (positive) relationship observed between crude oil shocks and industrial production (consumer prices). On the other hand, there is a positive equilibrium shift in the industrial production in the higher oil variance regime with cost pushing inflationary pressures in the long run. The findings bear strong implication for the policy makers in their attempt to combat effects of crude oil shocks. As per the findings, the emerging market policy makers should display a cautious approach during higher oil price volatile phases in order to support industrial production and consumer demand.

Erratum to “How Indian CPI and Industrial Production Respond to Global Oil Price Shocks? Regime-Dependent Impulse Responses” [Theoretical Economics Letters 7 (2017) 1511-1531

The original online version of this article (Singh, A. and Singh, R. (2017) How Indian CPI and Industrial Production Respond to Global Oil Price Shocks? Regime-Dependent Impulse Responses. Theoretical Economics Letters, 7, 1511-1531. https://doi.org/10.4236/tel.2017.75102) was published without referring the source of Figure 1.

Interactions between real economic and financial sides of the US economy in a regime-switching environment

This objective of this study is to examine the linkages between real (economic) and financial variables in the United States in a regime-switching environment that accounts explicitly for high volatility in the stock market and high stress in financial markets. Since the linearity test shows that the linear model should be rejected, we employ the Markov-switching VECM to examine the same objective using the Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo method. The regime-dependent impulse response function (RDIRF) highlights the increasing importance of the financial sector of the economy during stress periods. The responses and their fluctuations are significantly greater in the high-volatility regime than in the low-volatility regime.

A regime-dependent assessment of the information transmission dynamics between oil prices, precious metal prices and exchange rates

We use the Bayesian Markov-switching vector error correction (MS-VEC) model and the regime-dependent impulse response functions (RDIRFs) to examine the transmission dynamics between oil spot prices, precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium) spot prices and the US dollar/euro exchange rate. Using daily data from 1987 to 2012, two regimes (low and high volatility regimes) appear to be prevalent for this system. We find evidence that among the five commodity prices the gold prices are the most informative in the group in the high volatility regime, while gold, palladium, and platinum are the most informative in the low volatility regime. Though the platinum and palladium prices impact each other, the impacts in the high volatility regime are asymmetric. In addition to its low correlation in the group, palladium's negative impact on the exchange rate and gold makes it a reliable hedge asset for investors. Gold is the least volatile variable, thus affirming its use as a “safe haven” asset, while silver and oil are the most volatile in the group. Understanding the dynamics of these commodity prices should help investors decide how to invest during periods of low vs. highly volatile regimes.

A nonlinear investigation of the twin deficits hypothesis over the business cycle: Evidence from Turkey

In this paper, we analyze the twin deficits hypothesis covering the period from 1994 to 2012 in Turkey. In contrast to previous studies on Turkey, the existence of twin deficits is investigated by regime-dependent impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions based on a multivariate two-regime threshold VAR (TVAR) model. Our results suggest that the dynamics between the current account and budget account variables are affected by macroeconomic activity: twin deficits are only the case in the upper regime, when the economy operates above its potential level. When the economy is in the lower regime, budget and trade deficits show divergent movements. The results are consistent with Kim and Roubini (2008), indicating that the divergence of fiscal balance and current account might be explained by the cyclical fluctuations of output.

The Regime-Dependent Evolution of Credibility: A Fresh Look at Hong Kong's Linked Exchange Rate System

An estimated Markov-switching DSGE modelling framework that allows for parameter shifts across regimes is employed to test the hypothesis of regime-dependent credibility of Hong Kong’s linked exchange rate system. The model distinguishes two regimes with respect to the time-series properties of the risk premium. Regime-dependent impulse responses to macroeconomic shocks reveal substantial differences in spreads. These findings contribute to efforts at modelling exchange rate regime credibility as a non-linear process with two distinct regimes.

An asymmetric analysis of the relationship between oil prices and output: The case of Turkey

In this paper we analyze the asymmetric impact of oil price changes on the economic activity in Turkey. In contrast to previous studies on Turkey, the existence of an asymmetric relationship between economic activity and oil prices is investigated by regime-dependent impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions based on a multivariate two-regime Threshold VAR (TVAR) model. Our analysis suggests that the relationship between oil prices and macroeconomic activity is nonlinear and exhibits an asymmetric pattern: oil price changes have a significant effect on inflation and output when the change exceeds a certain threshold level. The lower response of macroeconomic variables to oil price shocks in the low oil price change regime also indicates that only the shocks exceeding the optimal threshold level are able to create a contraction in the economic activity.

The Regime-Dependent Evolution of Credibility: A Fresh Look at Hong Kong S Linked Exchange Rate System

An estimated Markov-switching DSGE modelling framework that allows for parameter shifts across regimes is employed to test the hypothesis of regime-dependent credibility of Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system. The model distinguishes two regimes with respect to the time-series properties of the risk premium. Regime-dependent impulse responses to macroeconomic shocks reveal substantial differences in spreads. These findings contribute to efforts at modelling exchange rate regime credibility as a non-linear process with two distinct regimes. Keywords: Markov-switching DSGE models, exchange rate regime credibility, Hong Kong. JEL-Classification: E32, F41, C51, C52

Oil Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in Turkey: Does the Change in Inflation Regime Matter?

This paper investigates the existence of oil pass through to inflation under different inflation regimes in Turkey. In order to compare the difference between the oil pass-through effects in the low and high inflation periods we employ Markov Regime Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) model as a non-linear estimation framework. The regime-dependent impulse responses do not indicate strong pass through from crude oil prices to inflation in both regimes. However, this channel is working through refined petroleum product prices. The results show that there is a substantial decline in pass-through from refined petroleum prices to inflation as the economy moves from high to low inflation regime. These findings support the hypothesis of Taylor (2000) suggesting that low inflationary environment leads to a low pass-through.

Regime-dependent relationships among the stock markets of the US, Australia and New Zealand: a Markov-switching VAR approach

Adopting a multivariate Markov-switching-VAR model (Krolzig, 1997) and a recently developed regime-dependent impulse response analysis technique (Ehrmann et al., 2003), this article investigates the dynamic relationships among the stock markets of the US, Australia and New Zealand. Our results reveal the existence of two different regimes in the three stock markets. We find that the correlations among the three markets are significantly higher in a bear regime than in a bull regime. In addition, the responses of each of the three markets to shocks in the other two markets are stronger and more persistent in the bear regime than in the bull regime. Finally, our findings imply that for the New Zealand stock market, the Australian stock market is more influential than the US stock market, and for the Australian stock market, the US stock market is more influential than the New Zealand stock market.

Regime-Dependent Relationships Among the Stock Markets of the US, Australia, and New Zealand: A Markov Switching VAR Approach

Adopting a MS-VAR model (Krolzig, 1997) and a recently developed regime-dependent impulse response analysis technique (Ehrmann, et al., 2003), this paper investigates the dynamic relationships among the stock markets of the US, Australia and New Zealand. Our results reveal the existence of two different regimes in the three stock markets. We find that the correlations among the three markets are significantly higher in a bear regime than in a bull regime. The responses of the three markets to shocks in other markets are stronger and more persistent in the bear regime than in the bull regime. Finally, our findings imply that the Australian stock market is more influential than the US stock market for the New Zealand stock market and the US stock market is more influential than the New Zealand stock market for the Australian stock market, while the Australian stock market is more influential than the New Zealand stock market for the US stock market.