Transition Reforms Research Articles

The Roles of Service Leadership in South Sudan transitional Governance and Institutional Performances

This review paper presents a conceptual framework and analysis of strategy approaches to transitioning states, focusing on the case of South Sudan. The proposed framework encompasses service leadership, institutional performance, transitional governance, and transitional reforms, emphasizing their interrelationships and significance in facilitating effective transitions. Service leadership, characterized by principles such as trustworthiness and stewardship, plays a crucial role in creating awareness, persuasion, and conceptualization. Institutional performance, including factors like human capital and accountability, is essential for evaluating and improving the delivery of public services during transitions. Transitional governance involves processes and structures that enable the reconfiguration of governance roles and practices, guided by principles such as the rule of law and transparency. Transitional reforms, including peace agreements and governance enhancements, aim to reconstruct socio-economic development and enhance governance. Despite progress, challenges such as systemic vulnerabilities and political fragility persist, hindering the implementation of transitional government targets in South Sudan. The paper concludes by recommending consensus-building, prioritization of governance reforms, and finalization of a permanent constitution to address challenges and improve transitional governance.

Using synthetic control method to estimate the growth effects of economic liberalisation: Evidence from transition economies

AbstractWe examine the contribution of institutional reforms to economic growth. To this end, we distinguish between several classes of institutional reform in the approach to economic liberalisation. Based on a sample of 24 current and former transition economies for the period 1980–2016, we estimate the counterfactual scenarios related to each distinctive institutional approach to the economic liberalisation by making use of the synthetic control method. Our evidence uncovers notable contrasts in the long‐term effectiveness of designated policy approaches in recovering from the transitional recession. A variety of synthetic control estimates suggests that a sustained big bang approach (rapid reforms) appears to be the most effective approach, while an abortive and gradualist approach tends to produce a permanent breakdown of the growth trajectories relative to the estimated counterfactuals. The point estimates survive an extensive battery of placebo tests. By employing the same methodological tool kit, future research could examine the impact of transition reforms on other socio‐economic variables, such as the poverty rates, income inequalities, health and environmental outcomes.

Territorial Coordination Centres and Telenursing: innovation and digitalisation of home care in Italy

Abstract Issue After Covid-19, Italy approved the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) to boost public health, sustainability and digital innovation, which promotes ecological and digital transition reforms. The strategic health reform redesigned territorial healthcare network by introducing new models of proactive care, as Territorial Coordination Centres (TCCs) and Telenursing. Description of the problem TCC is an innovative organisational model, that coordinates taking care by linking services and professionals involved in different care settings. In TCCs are involved nursing staff, that performs a telemedicine service called Telenursing, a way of delivering nursing care directly to the patient's home, through digital health tools. How will TCCs be implemented, using NRRP funds? How will Telenursing impact on home care? Results By 2024, 600 TCCs are planned to be implemented and fully operational, across the Country, financed by NRRP (280 bln €). The standard set by the NRRP reform is 1 TCC each 100,000 inhabitants, with 4-6 primary nurses involved (2,400-3,600 nationally). TCCs are organised to be interconnected with every healthcare network setting, including home care. Telenursing, within the TCCs, aims to guarantee proactive, personalised and proximity care, enhancing the home as a privileged place of care. Nurses of TCCs perform health monitoring, assessment, promotion, prevention and education by Telenursing, in order to reduce inappropriate hospital admissions and to increase patient satisfaction, safety and empowerment. By 2026, at least 200,000 people will be assisted through telemedicine tools, as planned in NRRP reform (funding 1 bln €). Lessons Italy, pursuing better health outcomes for the population, is investing in strengthening public primary care services and digitalization of services. New strategy aims to improve health of population and decrease health inequalities, while reducing geographical variations. Key messages • Telenursing performed by nurses working in TCCs is aimed at improving proactive, personalised and proximity care, supporting patients and caregivers at home. • By 2024, TCCs will be fully operating to guarantee an innovative system of public primary care, that uses digital tools to manage population in home care, reducing inappropriate hospitalization.

The impact of the new energy demonstration city construction on energy consumption intensity: Exploring the sustainable potential of China's firms

As a comprehensive energy transition reform strategy, China's new energy demonstration city (NEDC) pilot policy aims to accelerate the transformation from a fossil fuel-based energy system to a more sustainable energy system. Employing unique data on firms' energy consumption from National Tax Survey Database, this paper investigates how NEDC policy affects firms' energy utilization efficiency based on the difference-in-differences model. We observe that NEDC construction reduces firms' energy consumption intensity (ECI) in the pilot cities. After using the instrumental variable approach to deal with endogeneity problems, the conclusions still hold. The mechanism analysis reveals that the decrease in firms' ECI is driven by offering more tax incentives to enterprises and prompting them to pursue technological innovation. Heterogeneity analysis shows that this negative impact is more prominent for SOEs and high-energy-consuming enterprises; we also observe that this effect is more pronounced for firms in resource-based cities and old-industrial-based cities. Our results provide policy implications for initiating policies in other countries to improve firms' energy utilization performance.

Study on the China's real interest rate after including housing price factor into CPI.

The Chinese economy has undergone a long-term transition reform, but there is still a planned economy characteristic in the financial sector, which is financial repression. Due to the existence of financial repression, China's actual interest rate level should be lower than the Consumer Price Index (CPI). However, based on official China's interest rates and CPI, over half of the years China's actual interest rate remained higher than CPI by our calculation from 1999 to 2022. This is inconsistent with the financial repression that exists in China, and the main reason is the calculation methods of China's CPI. China's CPI measurement system originated from the planned economy era, which did not fully consider the rise in housing purchase prices, so the current CPI measurement system can be more realistically presented by taking the rise in housing prices into consider. The core idea of this study is to mining relevant official statistical data and calculate the proportion of Chinese residents' expenditure on purchasing houses to their total expenditure. By taking the proportion of house purchases as the weight of house price factor, and taking the proportion of other consumption as the weight of official CPI, the Generalized CPI (GCPI) is formulated. The GCPI is then compared with market interest rates to determine the actual interest rate situation in China over the past 20 years. This study has found that if GCPI is used as a measure, China's real interest rates have been negative for most years since 1999. Chinese residents have suffered the negative effects of financial repression over the past 20 years, and their property income cannot keep up with the actual losses caused by inflation. Therefore, it is believed that China's CPI calculation method should be adjusted to take into account the rise in housing prices, so China's actual inflation level could be more accurately reflected. In view of the above, deepening interest rate marketization reform and expand channels for financial investment are the future development goals of China's financial system.

Big effort, little gain for users: lessons from the public transport system reform in Bogotá

Semi-regulated, privately-operated public transport (PT) systems are common in low and middle-income countries of the Global South. Several cities are now planning or implementing formalized schemes intended to improve quality of service, safety, security of PT services and to reduce negative externalities, with limited success. Bogotá, which embarked on a progressive citywide PT reform process starting in 2009, replicates the negative experience of other large cities introducing citywide transit reforms. The new formalized scheme was implemented gradually between 2012 and 2021. As a result two types of services coexisted in the city for nine years: semiformal and formalized services. This resembled a natural experiment that provided a unique situation to evaluate the restructuring reform in Bogotá from the user’s perspective. This study analyzes passenger satisfaction surveys for both systems by means of ordered Probit models and Importance-Performance Analysis. Despite the good intentions behind the formalization process, results show that users provide better ratings to the traditional semi-regulated services than the new formalized system, mainly because bus frequency and fares are worse and expected improvements in road safety, personal security and comfort have not been delivered. The reform in Bogotá allowed the city to have resilience during the pandemic, though; and provided a framework for inclusion of zero and low-emission buses. The analysis suggests some recommendations for the improvement of transit reform processes: putting the focus on service quality, as well as assigning sufficient funding and developing institutional capacities to undertake the required changes.

Effect of the Shadow Economy on Tax Reform in Developing Countries

The present analysis has examined the effect of the shadow economy on tax reform in developing countries. The first type of tax reform is the “structural tax reform” (STR) characterized by large episodes of tax revenue mobilization, identified by Akitoby et al. (2020) [Tax revenue mobilization episodes in developing countries, Policy Design and Practice 3: 1–29] using the narrative approach that allows obtaining the precise nature and exact timing of major tax actions in several areas of tax policy and revenue administration that truly led to increases in tax revenue. The second type of tax reform is referred to as “tax transition reform” (TTR) and reflects the reform of the tax revenue structure that involves the reduction of its dependence on international trade tax revenue at the benefit of domestic tax revenue. The analysis has used various estimators and shown that the shadow economy reduces the likelihood of STR (notably in low-income countries), including in several tax policy areas and in the revenue administration area. The shadow economy also undermines the TTR process in countries whose tax revenue structure is strongly dependent on international trade tax revenue. Finally, it fosters the TTR process in countries that enjoy greater trade openness.

Effects of the Tax Transition Reform on the Real Exchange Rate through the Trade Openness Channel in Developing Countries

International financial institutions have advised developing countries to implement a reform of their tax revenue structure to reduce their dependence on international trade tax revenue, for the benefit of domestic tax revenue. This study examines the effect of this type of tax reform on the real exchange rate through the trade openness channel. It defines tax reform (also known as "tax transition reform") as a process that involves the convergence of developing countries' tax structures toward the tax structure of developed countries (given the weak dependence of the latter's tax structure on international trade tax revenue). The analysis is conducted using an unbalanced panel dataset of 107 countries from 1980-2019, and the two-step system-generalized method of moments approach. The findings show that tax reform causes real exchange rate depreciation, with the magnitude of this effect being higher in developed countries than in developing countries. Furthermore, the real exchange rate depreciation effect of the tax reform is higher in countries with greater trade openness and a tax structure that is less dependent on international trade tax revenue.

Trade costs and tax transition reform in developing countries

AbstractDeveloping countries are striving to reform their tax revenue structure to reduce its dependence on international trade tax revenue. The present study has investigated the effect of trade costs on this type of tax revenue structure reform (also referred in the present analysis to as ‘Tax transition Reform’—TTR) through the trade openness channel in developing countries. The analysis has used a set of 124 countries over the period from 1996 to 2019 and several econometric estimators. It shows that higher overall trade costs (notably non‐tariff costs) undermine the TTR process, notably in countries that enjoy high degrees of openness to international trade. In other words, countries that wish to pursue their TTR process, while concurrently further opening up their economies to international trade, have to reduce their trade costs.

Tax Transition Reform and Economic Growth in Developing Countries

ABSTRACT The current article examines the economic growth effect of tax transition reform in developing countries. Tax transition reform is defined here as the process that entails the convergence of developing countries’ tax structure toward that of developed countries. The analysis covers a sample of 101 developing countries over the period of 1980 to 2019. The empirical analysis that makes use of the two-step system generalized method of moments has shown that tax transition reform promotes economic growth, including in countries with a high share of non-resource tax revenue in total public revenue. These findings have important policy implications.

Perceived vs. Actual Distance to Transit in Santiago, Chile

To plan public transport supply and to increase transit patronage, it is indispensable to be aware of people’s perception of the actual supply, that is, how extensive and accurate people’s knowledge is regarding the concrete features of transport supply, such as the locations of transit stops, timetables, and fare structures. This paper addresses the gap between the perceived and real distances to transit stops. The comparison between the real and perceived supply shows a considerably accurate perception. Nevertheless, a pattern is apparent. Metro supply has a higher overestimation rate than buses, i.e., walking distances are perceived as significantly shorter than they actually are. These results suggest that the transport mode is correlated with perception. This mode has the best reputation in the studied city, in contradistinction to buses, whose reputation was heavily damaged by the public transit reform occurring at the time of the research.

Catching up with the European Union’s recovery and resilience agenda: green transition reforms in the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan

ABSTRACT Drawing on Europeanization and policy change scholarships, and with the aim of understanding the extent to which Next Generation EU has become a vector of policy change in the country, this article analyses policy reforms concerning the ecological transition, which Italy has designed within the framework of its National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP). More specifically, the study provides a descriptive analysis of the two versions of the plan (Conte’s proposal and Draghi’s final version) in order to unveil the nature and direction of policy change embedded in particular in its final version, as compared to previous Italian ecological policies. The empirical research presented in the article shows that the logics of path-dependence and policy layering have prevailed in the design of the green pillar of the NRRP, as it introduced a limited number of policy reforms; lacked specific implementation targets, and was developed in conformity with a highly fragmented and top-down style of policy making: one that was typical of previous Italian environmental and climate policies.

The revenue efficiency consequences of the announcement of a tax transition reform: The case of WAEMU countries

AbstractDoes the revenue replacement strategy of border taxes with domestic revenue collection (tax transition) increase efficiency in collecting revenues in developing countries? This article attempted to answer the question, by assessing the efficiency consequences of announcing a tax transition reform program in West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries. Through an impact evaluation framework with propensity score matching and synthetic control method, we find that the announcement of this reform in WAEMU countries increases efficiency in mobilizing resources at the community level as compared to their counterfactual. Efficient mobilization of resources increases by 4.3% around the reform agenda and is achieved 3 years following the announcement of the reform in these countries. We also find that the achieved efficiency in mobilizing resources goes hand in hand with an improvement in tax‐oriented Doing Business indicators at the community level, by increasing the contribution rate score of firms by near 22 scales and reducing collection time scores by 4.2 scales as compared to the best Doing Business practices on these indicators. The article also evidenced that the reform is overall working through the tax discipline channel rather than tax morale in these countries. Furthermore, having adopted value added tax (VAT), implemented semi‐autonomous revenue agencies (SARAs) and large taxpayers' units (LTUs) contribute to foster the revenue efficiency effect of the reform in above‐mentioned countries.

Albania’s urban and territorial dimension was a product of the savage communist past and the difficult transition of the country

Albania of the fourth decade of transition presents a series of problems related to the urban and territorial development. This paper analyzes the initial causes of urban and territorial problems, which are correlated to the savage communist past and beginnings of the political and economic transition of the country. At the end of the communist regime, Albania was one of the countries of the socialist camp with the highest level of implementation of the ideology, principles and practices of Stalinist socialism, which made the Albanian political transition very difficult. Lack of democratic heritage, high level of indoctrination of society and especially the ruling elite of the transition, were the main reasons for this delay. The economic transition of the country also presented a strong challenge. The central planning economy, in the last years of its implementation, would fail in many respects. This would bring, not only an extreme poverty of Albanian families in the moments of transition, but also a real lack of economic activities, which in a private management could bring more employment to the population in the future. This general context of the transition would reflect the same difficulties in the transition of territorial governance, as an integral part of the transition as a whole. The liberal and democratization reforms pursued in the early years would include land ownership, buildings, housing, urban planning and development processes. As a consequent, the country has experienced a high decline in the resident population, as a result of foreign emigration. But what influenced the strong changes of the urban, territorial and spatial dimension of the country, was internal migration. This massive internal migration would reshape the territorial model of population distribution across national territory, the spatial structure of the inhabited centers and the urban quality of life in Albanian cities. There are four most important preconditions that would produce this massive internal migration, which originate from the savage communist past and the political and economic transition reforms: the inability of the territorial government to understand its new role in urban and territorial issues; the decline of basic public services (education, health) as a result of the departure of ‘nominees’ from the party-state in cities different from those of their origin; loss of employment of citizens in state-owned, bankrupt, closed or in-the-process–of-privatization enterprises; free movement of citizens and freedom to choose residence. Two would be the main financiers of this construction development that shaped the urban and territorial model of the country, which originate from the political and economic transition reforms: income provided by interaction in the free market of real estate from citizens who had privatized state-owned housing in their use; remittances provided in emigration, after allowing the free movement of citizens outside the national territory.

Janos Kornai and his memorable work

ABSTRACT Janos Kornai was the most outstanding economist from the socialist and post-socialist region in the last 50 years. He was a world-renowned scholar who left behind an immense legacy of works published in over 20 languages. His theory of systemic disequilibrium in a centrally planned economy, the concept of hard and soft budget constraints, and economic shortage were of revolutionary importance to the scientific interpretation of the processes of production, distribution and capital accumulation in state socialist economies. Also of note is the author’s work on political economy of socialism, which he taught at the Harvard University. When analysing the socialist system, Kornai essentially contented himself with a descriptive approach, whereas in works published after 1989 he focused his attention on normative economics, suggesting directions of structural reform, institution-building, and economic policy in post-socialist transition. Also of great importance is Kornai’s last book comparing the disequilibrium characterised by shortage in socialism with the disequilibrium typical of the surplus in capitalism. This article analyses the evolution of this outstanding economist’s theoretical thought and its impact on real economic processes.

János Kornai and his memorable work

János Kornai was the most outstanding economist of socialist and postsocialist countries in the last fifty years. He was a world-renowned scholar who left behind an immense legacy of works published in over twenty languages. His theory of systemic disequilibrium in a centrally planned economy, concept of hard and soft budget constraints and the economics of shortage were of revolutionary importance to the scientific interpretation of the processes of production, distribution and capital accumulation in state socialist economies. Also of note is the author’s work on political economy of socialism, which he taught at the Harvard University. When analysing the socialist system Kornai essentially contented himself with a descriptive approach, whereas in works published post-1989 he focused his attention on normative economics suggesting directions of structural reform, institution-building and economic policy in post-socialist transition. Of great importance is also Kornai’s last book comparing the disequilibrium characterised by shortage in socialism with the disequilibrium typical of the surplus in capitalism. The article analyses the evolution of this outstanding economist’s theoretical thought and its impact on real economic processes. Polemic comments are also made on the interpretation of economic and social processes taking place in China.

Correlation Analysis of Social Transition, Economic Management and Educational Reform in China and Europe

In the context of social transformation in China and Europe, economic management reform in China and Europe is struggling, and education development is in urgent need of innovation. Based on the above situation, this article puts forward a study on the economic management and education reform of China and Europe. With the continuous deepening of social transformation and economic management reform in China and Europe, this article analyzes the correlation between social transformation and economic management reform in China and Europe, and constructs a correlation matrix of social transformation and economic management in China and Europe in the form of input value or output value. Favorable conditions for the rapid economic growth of Central European countries: establish a well-functioning market economy system, implement export-oriented economic policies, promote economic growth, make full use of the geographical advantages of China and Europe in social transformation and economic management reform, and population growth in China and Europe The slow characteristic is conducive to economic management reform. In the context of the social transformation of China and Europe, it puts forward suggestions on China-EU education reform to promote the sound development of European social education. In the year of economic recovery in Europe, the situation of economic management and social production in China and Europe has gradually improved. The GDPs of Central and European countries have got rid of negative growth, the inflation rate has continued to decline, and the development potential of social and economic management reform in China and Europe has gradually emerged. This is of great significance to promoting regional and global stability and development.

Fossil fuels, climate change, and the COVID-19 crisis: pathways for a just and green post-pandemic recovery

ABSTRACT A climate-positive COVID-19 recovery can accelerate the energy transition away from fossil fuels. Yet, current assessments of recovery stimulus programs suggest that the most fossil fuel producers are more likely to take on a ‘dirty’ recovery path out of the pandemic than a ‘green’ one. Such a path will postpone climate action and entrench fossil fuel dependence. To change course, fossil fuel producers have to get on board of a 'green recovery'. For this, cooperative international efforts mobilizing both fossil fuel consumers and producers need to promote ‘just transition’ policies that increase support for a green shift among fossil fuel companies and producing countries, including fossil fuel exporters. In turn, fossil fuel producers should leverage the opportunity of stimulus packages to reduce their fossil fuel production dependence and help accelerate an energy transition through supply-side measures. A combination of ‘green’ investments and ‘just’ transition reforms could help enroll fossil fuel producers into a climate-friendly post-COVID recovery. Key policy insights Fossil fuel producers have mostly promoted ‘dirty’ rather than ‘green’ recovery paths from the COVID-19 pandemic A green recovery agenda requires a ‘just’ transition component to entice and support fossil fuel producers Both demand and supply-side strategies are required to advance a ‘just transition’ agenda throughout the post-COVID 19 recovery The post-COVID-19 transition requires energy policies responding to the constraints of consumer and producer countries to address climate and equity challenges

Implications of Protest and Reform for Domestic Governance in Ethiopia

The nexus between protest–transition–reform situated in a larger frame of Ethiopia’s political dynamics anchored in historical narratives and theoretical debates are presented in this paper. Moreover, the genesis and the dynamics surrounding the rolling out of the post-2018 Ethiopia’s transition are examined from the vantage point of prospects for entrenching a stable democratic dispensation in the country. To this end, the political economy approach, along with presenting ethnographic narratives that are pertinent to the subject under study, is used as an analytical lens. Also, document review of journal articles, official and academic reports, internet blogs, and newspaper and other media posts was undertaken to substantiate findings from primary sources. The paper concludes that the ongoing Ethiopian transition unfolded by paving avenues for opening up space for negotiating unsettled issues surrounding state-society relations in a context of a relatively liberalized political economy. However, the envisioned model of transition is constrained by different factors characterized by a split in the ranks of the ruling coalition, intergroup conflicts, and rising unmet expectations that resulted in the absence of peace and stability. Besides, the prevailing weakness of democratic institutions and polarized inter-ethnic relations, the recent outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic stalled the progress of the transition process.

PROBLEMS OF INFLATION, UNEMPLOYMENT AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN THE TRANSITION OF EASTERN BLOC COUNTRIES TO MARKET ECONOMY: EXAMPLES FROM SELECTED REGIONAL COUNTRIES

The Eastern bloc fell with the unification of Germany and the fall of Soviet Union, Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia. After the year 1991, the countries that consisted the old Eastern Bloc went in a pursuit of a new economical and political system. Generally, all of the transiting countries have adopted a transition towards a market economy. Because of this reason, the ex Eastern Bloc countries are also known as "Transition Countries" or "Transition Economies". These countries have started the reforms of transition to a market economy after the first years of the disbanding of the Eastern Bloc. With the beginning of the reforms, macro economical problems rose due to the change of systems. The most important of these problems are; inflation, unemployment and injustices in income distribution. In this work, theoretical information is provided about transition economies, transition periods and transition reforms. Besides, the problems of income distribution, unemployment and inflation in the select transition countries are discussed. As a result of this study it was concluded that transition reforms have an impact on inflation and unemployment and unemployment and inflation have an impact on per capita income.