Reduction In Prevalence Of Infection Research Articles

Exploring the use of fatty acid ethyl esters as a potential natural solution for the treatment of fish parasitic diseases.

Alternatives to conventional chemical treatments for parasitic diseases in fish are needed. Microalgal-sourced fatty acid ethyl esters (FAEEs) have shown an antiparasitic effect against Gyrodactylus turnbulli infection in guppies. Here, we tested a range of commercial FAEEs of various carbon chain lengths and unsaturation levels against two fish parasites. Guppies and barramundi infected with G. turnbulli and Trichodina sp., respectively, were used. The most effective FAEE, after excluding those toxic to fish, was ethyl laurate (12:0). For both parasites, the LD50 was 18.75 μM within 250 min of incubation. Ethyl eicosapentaenoate (20:5n3) was the next most effective FAEE against G. turnbulli, and dihomo-γ-linolenic acid ethyl ester (20:3n6) and ethyl α-linolenate (18:3n3) were the next most effective against Trichodina sp. In addition, FAEEs prepared from the microalga Phaeodactylum tricornutum residue, after fucoxanthin extraction, were examined against Trichodina sp. infection in barramundi for the first time. LD85 and LD100 was achieved at 2.5 and 5 μL mL-1 of the FAEE preparation, respectively. Invivo, immersion of infected barramundi in 1.25 μL mL-1 of this preparation for 24 h reduced infection prevalence from 100% to 53% and was non-toxic to fish.

Extension of efficacy range for targeted malaria-elimination interventions due to spillover effects.

Malaria-elimination interventions aim to extinguish hotspots and prevent transmission to nearby areas. Here, we re-analyzed a cluster-randomized trial of reactive, focal interventions (chemoprevention using artemether-lumefantrine and/or indoor residual spraying with pirimiphos-methyl) delivered within 500 m of confirmed malaria index cases in Namibia to measure direct effects (among intervention recipients within 500 m) and spillover effects (among non-intervention recipients within 3 km) on incidence, prevalence and seroprevalence. There was no or weak evidence of direct effects, but the sample size of intervention recipients was small, limiting statistical power. There was the strongest evidence of spillover effects of combined chemoprevention and indoor residual spraying. Among non-recipients within 1 km of index cases, the combined intervention reduced malaria incidence by 43% (95% confidence interval, 20-59%). In analyses among non-recipients within 3 km of interventions, the combined intervention reduced infection prevalence by 79% (6-95%) and seroprevalence, which captures recent infections and has higher statistical power, by 34% (20-45%). Accounting for spillover effects increased the cost-effectiveness of the combined intervention by 42%. Targeting hotspots with combined chemoprevention and vector-control interventions can indirectly benefit non-recipients up to 3 km away.

A hierarchical model-based framework for evaluating probabilities of area-wide freedom from lymphatic filariasis infection based on sentinel site surveillance data

The design of population surveys to substantiate the elimination of disease transmission across large implementation units (IUs) has become important as many parasite control efforts approach their final stages. This is especially true for the global program to eliminate lymphatic filariasis (LF), which has successfully reduced infection prevalence in many endemic countries, such that the focus has shifted to how best to determine that the area-wide elimination of this macroparasitic disease has been achieved. The WHO has recommended a two-stage lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS) framework based on sampling children from selected clusters within an IU, called the Transmission Assessment Survey (TAS), for supporting such decision-making, but questions have emerged regarding the reliability of this strategy for assessing if LF transmission is broken effectively everywhere within an area. In this study, we develop and describe an alternative probabilistic framework that combines infection status information from longitudinal parasitological surveys of whole communities carried out in sentinel sites, imperfect diagnostic tests, and locally-applicable extinction thresholds predicted by transmission models, to overcome the problems associated with TAS. We applied the framework to LF infection and intervention data from the country of Malawi, and demonstrated how our hierarchical coupled model-sentinel site survey tool can be used to estimate the probability that LF transmission has occurred at the individual survey, village, and countrywide scales. We also further demonstrated how the framework can be used in conjunction with zonal or areal design prevalences to estimate the number of sentinel sites and durations of interventions required to acquire sufficiently high confidence that an area is free from infection. Our results indicate that the application of the spatially driven model-data freedom-from-infection tool developed here to follow up data from high-risk sentinel sites in a region may offer a highly cost-effective framework for guiding the making of high-fiducial and defensible area-wide LF intervention stopping decisions.

Cost of implementing a doxycycline test-and-treat strategy for onchocerciasis elimination among settled and semi-nomadic groups in Cameroon.

Onchocerciasis is a neglected tropical disease with 217.5 million people globally at risk of having the infection. In both settled and semi-nomadic communities of Massangam Health District in Cameroon, Sightsavers has been carrying out test-and-treat with doxycycline and twice-yearly ivermectin distribution. This paper focuses on the cost of test-and-treat with doxycycline in the two community contexts of settled and semi-nomadic. For the valuation, a combination of gross or micro-costing was used to identify cost components, as well as bottom-up and top-down approaches. The opportunity costs of vehicle and equipment use were estimated and included. Not included, however, were the opportunity costs of building use and Ministry of Public Health staff salaries. We only captured the incremental costs of implementing test-and-treat activities as part of a functional annual community-directed treatment with the ivermectin programme. We estimate the economic cost per person tested and cost per person treated in Massangam to be US$135 and US$667 respectively. Total implementation cost in the settled community was US$79,409, and in the semi-nomadic community US$69,957. Overall, the total economic cost of implementing the doxycycline test-and-treat strategy for onchocerciasis elimination in Massangam came to US$168,345. Financial costs represented 91% of total costs. Unit costs of test-and-treat in both settled and semi-nomadic communities are higher than unit costs of community-directed treatment with ivermectin. However, it is critical to note that a two-year implementation shows a significantly larger reduction in infection prevalence than the preceding 20 years of annual community-directed treatment with ivermectin. Test-and-treat with doxycycline may be a cost-effective intervention in places where the prevalence of microfilaria is still high, or in hard-to-reach areas where community-directed treatment with ivermectin and MDA coverage are not high enough to stop transmission or where marginalised populations consistently miss treatment.

Functional characterization of a conserved membrane protein, Pbs54, involved in gamete fertilization in Plasmodium berghei

The successful completion of gamete fertilization is essential for malaria parasite transmission, and this process can be targeted by intervention strategies. In this study, we identified a conserved gene (PBANKA_0813300) in the rodent malaria parasite Plasmodium berghei, which encodes a protein of 54 kDa (designated as Pbs54). Localization studies indicated that Pbs54 is associated with the plasma membranes of gametes and ookinetes. Functional studies by gene disruption showed that the Δpbs54 parasites had no defect in asexual proliferation, gametocyte development, or gametogenesis. However, the interactions between male and female gametes were significantly decreased compared with wild-type parasites. The Δpbs54 lines did not show a further reduction in zygote and ookinete numbers during in vitro culture, indicating that the defects were probably restricted to gamete fertilization. Consistent with this finding, mosquitoes fed on Δpbs54-infected mice showed a 30.1% reduction in infection prevalence and a 74.7% reduction in oocyst intensity. Cross-fertilization assay indicated that both male and female gametes were impaired in the Δpbs54 parasites. To evaluate its transmission-blocking potential, we obtained polyclonal antibodies from mice immunized with the recombinant Pbs54 (rPbs54) protein. In vitro assays showed that anti-rPbs54 sera inhibited ookinete formation by 42.7%. Our experiments identified Pbs54 as a fertility factor required for mosquito transmission and a novel candidate for a malaria transmission-blocking vaccine.

Mimicking superinfection exclusion disrupts alphavirus infection and transmission in the yellow fever mosquito Aedes aegypti

Multiple viruses, including pathogenic viruses, bacteriophages, and even plant viruses, cause a phenomenon termed superinfection exclusion whereby a currently infected cell is resistant to secondary infection by the same or a closely related virus. In alphaviruses, this process is thought to be mediated, at least in part, by the viral protease (nsP2) which is responsible for processing the nonstructural polyproteins (P123 and P1234) into individual proteins (nsP1-nsP4), forming the viral replication complex. Taking a synthetic biology approach, we mimicked this naturally occurring phenomenon by generating a superinfection exclusion-like state in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, rendering them refractory to alphavirus infection. By artificially expressing Sindbis virus (SINV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV) nsP2 in mosquito cells and transgenic mosquitoes, we demonstrated a reduction in both SINV and CHIKV viral replication rates in cells following viral infection as well as reduced infection prevalence, viral titers, and transmission potential in mosquitoes.

A healthy but depleted herd: Predators decrease prey disease and density.

The healthy herds hypothesis proposes that predators can reduce parasite prevalence and thereby increase the density of their prey. However, evidence for such predator-driven reductions in the prevalence of prey remains mixed. Furthermore, even less evidence supports increases in prey density during epidemics. Here, we used a planktonic predator-prey-parasite system to experimentally test the healthy herds hypothesis. We manipulated density of a predator (the phantom midge, Chaoborus punctipennis) and parasitism (the virulent fungus Metschnikowia bicuspidata) in experimental assemblages. Because we know natural populations of the prey (Daphnia dentifera) vary in susceptibility to both predator and parasite, we stocked experimental populations with nine genotypes spanning a broad range of susceptibility to both enemies. Predation significantly reduced infection prevalence, eliminating infection at the highest predation level. However, lower parasitism did not increase densities of prey; instead, prey density decreased substantially at the highest predation levels (a major density cost of healthy herds predation). This density result was predicted by a model parameterized for this system. The model specifies three conditions for predation to increase prey density during epidemics: (i) predators selectively feed on infected prey, (ii) consumed infected prey release fewer infectious propagules than unconsumed prey, and (iii) sufficiently low infection prevalence. While the system satisfied the first two conditions, prevalence remained too high to see an increase in prey density with predation. Low prey densities caused by high predation drove increases in algal resources of the prey, fueling greater reproduction, indicating that consumer-resource interactions can complicate predator-prey-parasite dynamics. Overall, in our experiment, predation reduced the prevalence of a virulent parasite but, at the highest levels, also reduced prey density. Hence, while healthy herds predation is possible under some conditions, our empirical results make it clear that the manipulation of predators to reduce parasite prevalence may harm prey density.

Effects of Neighborhood-Scale Acaricidal Treatments on Infection Prevalence of Blacklegged Ticks (Ixodes scapularis) with Three Zoonotic Pathogens.

Acaricides are hypothesized to reduce human risk of exposure to tick-borne pathogens by decreasing the abundance and/or infection prevalence of the ticks that serve as vectors for the pathogens. Acaricides targeted at reservoir hosts such as small mammals are expected to reduce infection prevalence in ticks by preventing their acquisition of zoonotic pathogens. By reducing tick abundance, reservoir-targeted or broadcast acaricides could reduce tick infection prevalence by interrupting transmission cycles between ticks and their hosts. Using an acaricide targeted at small-mammal hosts (TCS bait boxes) and one sprayed on low vegetation (Met52 fungal biocide), we tested the hypotheses that infection prevalence of blacklegged ticks with zoonotic pathogens would be more strongly diminished by TCS bait boxes, and that any effects of both acaricidal treatments would increase during the four years of deployment. We used a masked, placebo-controlled design in 24 residential neighborhoods in Dutchess County, New York. Analyzing prevalence of infection with Borrelia burgdorferi, Anaplasma phagocytophilum, and Babesia microti in 5380 nymphal Ixodes scapularis ticks, we found little support for either hypothesis. TCS bait boxes did not reduce infection prevalence with any of the three pathogens compared to placebo controls. Met52 was associated with lower infection prevalence with B. burgdorferi compared to placebo controls but had no effect on prevalence of infection with the other two pathogens. Although significant effects of year on infection prevalence of all three pathogens were detected, hypothesized cumulative reductions in prevalence were observed only for B. burgdorferi. We conclude that reservoir-targeted and broadcast acaricides might not generally disrupt pathogen transmission between reservoir hosts and tick vectors or reduce human risk of exposure to tick-borne pathogens.

Pathogens and predators: examining the separate and combined effects of natural enemies on assemblage structure.

Natural enemy ecology strives to unify predator-prey and host-pathogen interactions under a common framework to gain insights into community- and ecosystem-level processes. To address this goal, ecologists need a greater emphasis on: (1) quantifying pathogen-mediated effects on community structure to enable comparisons with predator-mediated effects and (2) determining the interactive effects of combined natural enemies on communities. We conducted a mesocosm experiment to assess the individual and combined effects of predators (dragonfly larvae and adult water bugs) and a pathogen (ranavirus) on the abundance and composition of a larval amphibian assemblage. We found that our three natural enemies structured victim assemblages in unique ways, producing distinct assemblages. Additionally, we found that in combination treatments, predators mainly drove assemblage structure such that the assemblages most closely resembled their respective predator treatments. We also found that predators reduced infection prevalence in combination treatments, and that the magnitude of this effect was dependent on predator identity. Compared to virus-alone treatments, the presence of dragonflies and water bugs reduced infection prevalence by 79% and 63%, respectively. Additionally, the presence of dragonflies eliminated ranavirus infection in two species, which demonstrates the prominent role of predators in disease dynamics in this system. Overall, this work demonstrates the importance of considering natural enemies in community ecology, as each enemy can elicit a unique structural change. Additionally, this study provides a unique empirical test of the healthy herds hypothesis for multi-species assemblages and underscores the importance of advancing our understanding of multi-enemy interactions within communities.

Isoimperatorin: A promising anti Gyrodactylus kobayashii natural compound from Angelica dahurica

Current gyrodactylids treatments using chemicals such as rotenone, piperazine and trichlorfon cause environmental and human health issues, especially their toxicity to the host. Therefore, search for alternative anthelmintic agents is urgent and natural compounds from herbs show promising solution to this problem. In our previous study, we screened 33 herbal medicines and found that Angelica dahurica has a good anthelmintic efficacy. In order to identify the active compounds from Angelica dahurica, bioassay-guided isolation was performed using a Carassius auratus - Gyrodactylus kobayashii model in this study. After extraction, purification and characterization step by step, isoimperatorin was eventually separated as the main active ingredient for eradicating G. kobayashii in goldfish. Compared to the control groups, bathing G. kobayashii-infected goldfish in isoimperatorin significantly reduced infection prevalence and intensity, with EC50 values of 0.63 (24 h) and 0.53 mg/L (48 h), respectively. Acute toxicity assays indicated that the LC50 (96 h) of isoimperatorin against goldfish was 10.16 mg/L, which was 19.17 times higher than EC50 (48 h). In addition, scanning electron microscope (SEM) and RT-qPCR were used to explore the anthelminthic mechanism of isoimperatorin. TEM results showed that after exposure to isoimperatorin, morphological alterations in the tegument of G. kobayashii were observed, which disrupted its homeostasis. Besides, isoimperatorin significantly downregulated the expression of ATPase genes (ATP5A1, ATP5C, ATP5F) and oxidative phosphorylation pathway genes (NDUFS8, NDUFA8, SDH). After treatment with isoimperatorin, the content of ATP in the worms decreased significantly. In summary, isoimperatorin showed promising anti G. kobayashii efficacy via damaging tegument, supplying insufficient energy to the G. kobayashii.

Trachoma.

Trachoma is a neglected tropical disease caused by infection with conjunctival strains of Chlamydia trachomatis. It can result in blindness. Pathophysiologically, trachoma is a disease complex composed of two linked chronic processes: a recurrent, generally subclinical infectious-inflammatory disease that mostly affects children, and a non-communicable, cicatricial and, owing to trichiasis, eventually blinding disease that supervenes in some individuals later in life. At least 150 infection episodes over an individual's lifetime are needed to precipitate trichiasis; thus, opportunity exists for a just global health system to intervene to prevent trachomatous blindness. Trachoma is found at highest prevalence in the poorest communities of low-income countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa; in June 2021, 1.8 million people worldwide were going blind from the disease. Blindness attributable to trachoma can appear in communities many years after conjunctival C. trachomatis transmission has waned or ceased; therefore, the two linked disease processes require distinct clinical and public health responses. Surgery is offered to individuals with trichiasis and antibiotic mass drug administration and interventions to stimulate facial cleanliness and environmental improvement are designed to reduce infection prevalence and transmission. Together, these interventions comprise the SAFE strategy, which is achieving considerable success. Although much work remains, a continuing public health problem from trachoma in the year 2030 will be difficult for the world to excuse.

Whole-genome sequencing of Schistosoma mansoni reveals extensive diversity with limited selection despite mass drug administration

Control and elimination of the parasitic disease schistosomiasis relies on mass administration of praziquantel. Whilst these programmes reduce infection prevalence and intensity, their impact on parasite transmission and evolution is poorly understood. Here we examine the genomic impact of repeated mass drug administration on Schistosoma mansoni populations with documented reduced praziquantel efficacy. We sequenced whole-genomes of 198 S. mansoni larvae from 34 Ugandan children from regions with contrasting praziquantel exposure. Parasites infecting children from Lake Victoria, a transmission hotspot, form a diverse panmictic population. A single round of treatment did not reduce this diversity with no apparent population contraction caused by long-term praziquantel use. We find evidence of positive selection acting on members of gene families previously implicated in praziquantel action, but detect no high frequency functionally impactful variants. As efforts to eliminate schistosomiasis intensify, our study provides a foundation for genomic surveillance of this major human parasite.

Five-Year Follow-Up on the Prevalence and Intensity of Infections of Schistosoma mansoni in a Hard-to-Reach District of Madagascar.

ABSTRACTSchistosomiasis is a major public health problem in Madagascar. The WHO recommends preventive chemotherapy by mass drug administration (MDA) with praziquantel as the primary approach to control Schistosoma mansoni–related morbidity in endemic populations, alongside complementary interventions such as health education. The impact of annual MDA and health education programs was assessed in the hard-to-reach Marolambo district of eastern Madagascar, an area endemic for S. mansoni. Repeated cross-sectional studies undertaken 2015–2019 examined between 300 and 381 school-aged children (aged 5–14 years) annually. The prevalence and infection intensity of S. mansoni were assessed by urine-circulating cathodic antigen (CCA) dipsticks and coproscopy using Kato–Katz (KK) methodologies. After four rounds of annual MDA, a reduction in S. mansoni prevalence was seen in CCA (93.9% in year 1–87.7% in year 5; P = 0.007) and KK (73.9% in year 1–59.4% in year 5; P < 0.0001). The prevalence of heavy-intensity infections roughly halved from 23.7% to 10.1% (P < 0.0001), and the mean intensity of infection fell by 55.0% (480.2–216.3 eggs per gram of feces). A malacological survey found Biomphalaria pfeifferi snail intermediate hosts in multiple water contact sites including rice paddies, streams, and Nosivolo River. Despite reductions in infection prevalence and intensity, schistosomiasis still poses a significant public health challenge in Marolambo district. Twice yearly MDA cycles and/or community-wide MDA are suggested to better reduce infections. Expanding health education, improving standards of water, sanitation and hygiene, and attention on snail-related control will also be important, especially in rice paddy irrigated areas.

Exposure to nanoplastics affects the outcome of infectious disease in phytoplankton.

Infectious diseases of humans and wildlife are increasing globally but the contribution of novel artificial anthropogenic entities such as nano-sized plastics to disease dynamics remains unknown. Despite mounting evidence for the adverse effects of nanoplastics (NPs) on single organisms, it is unclear whether and how they affect the interaction between species and thereby lead to ecological harm. In order to incorporate the impact of NP pollution into host-parasite-environment interactions captured in the "disease triangle", we evaluated disease outcomes in the presence of polystyrene NP using an ecologically-relevant host-parasite system consisting of a common planktonic cyanobacterium and its fungal parasite. NP at high concentrations formed hetero-aggregates with phytoplankton and inhibited their growth. This coincided with a significant reduction in infection prevalence, highlighting the close interdependency of host and parasite fitness. Lower intensity of infection in the presence of NP indicates that reduced disease transmission results from the parasite's diminished ability to establish new infections as NP formed aggregates around phytoplankton cells. We propose that NP aggregation on the host's surface acts as a physical barrier to infection and, by reducing host light harvesting, may also hamper parasite chemotaxis. These results demonstrate that the consequences of NP pollution go well beyond toxic effects at the individual level and modulate the intensity of species interactions, thereby potentially eliciting diverse cascading effects on ecosystem functioning.

A Bayesian analysis of a Test and Vaccinate or Remove study to control bovine tuberculosis in badgers (Meles meles).

A novel five year Test and Vaccinate or Remove (TVR) wildlife research intervention project in badgers (Meles meles) commenced in 2014 in a 100km2 area of Northern Ireland. It aimed to increase the evidence base around badgers and bovine TB and help create well-informed and evidence-based strategies to address the issue of cattle-to-cattle spread and spread between cattle and badgers. It involved real-time trap-side testing of captured badgers and vaccinating those that tested negative for bTB (BadgerBCG–BCG Danish 1331) and removal of those that tested bTB positive using the Dual-Path Platform VetTB test (DPP) for cervids (Chembio Diagnostic Systems, Medford, NY USA). Four diagnostic tests were utilised within the study interferon gamma release assay (IGRA), culture (clinical samples and post mortem), DPP using both whole blood and DPP using serum. BCG Sofia (SL222) was used in the final two years because of supply issues with BadgerBCG. Objectives for this study were to evaluate the performance of the DPP in field conditions and whether any trend was apparent in infection prevalence over the study period. A Bayesian latent class model of diagnostic test evaluation in the absence of a gold standard was applied to the data. Temporal variation in the sensitivity of DPP and interferon gamma release assay (IGRA) due to the impact of control measures was investigated using logistic regression and individual variability was assessed. Bayesian latent class analysis estimated DPP with serum to have a sensitivity of 0.58 (95% CrI: 0.40–0.76) and specificity of 0.97 (95% CrI: 0.95–0.98). The DPP with whole blood showed a higher sensitivity (0.69 (95% CrI: 0.48–0.88)) but similar specificity (0.98 (95% Crl: 0.96–0.99)). The change from BCG Danish to BCG Sofia significantly impacted on DPP serum test characteristics. In addition, there was weak evidence of increasing sensitivity of IGRA over time and differences in DPP test sensitivity between adults and cubs. An exponential decline model was an appropriate representation of the infection prevalence over the 5 years, with a starting prevalence of 14% (95% CrI: 0.10–0.20), and an annual reduction of 39.1% (95% CrI: 26.5–50.9). The resulting estimate of infection prevalence in year 5 of the study was 1.9% (95% CrI: 0.8–3.8). These results provide field evidence of a statistically significant reduction in badger TB prevalence supporting a TVR approach to badger intervention. They give confidence in the reliability and reproducibility in the DPP Whole Blood as a real time trap-side diagnostic test for badgers, and describe the effect of vaccination and reduced infection prevalence on test characteristics.

A systematic review and meta-analysis quantifying schistosomiasis infection burden in pre-school aged children (PreSAC) in sub-Saharan Africa for the period 2000-2020.

Following the adoption of the World Health Assembly Resolution WHA 65.21 and Neglected Tropical Diseases road map 2021-2030, schistosomiasis control programmes have shifted from morbidity control to disease elimination. However, several gaps continue to be observed in the implementation of control programmes with certain age groups omitted from these campaigns increasing health inequalities and risks of reinfections to previously treated groups. We used the Inverse Variance Heterogeneity (IVhet) model to estimate the prevalence of schistosomiasis infection among preschool-aged children. We did a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature on schistosomiasis in sub-Saharan Africa for the period January 1, 2000 to November 30, 2020. Quantitative data for cases of schistosomiasis infection were extracted, including country and region where the studies were done, year of publication and specific schistosome species observed. The IVhet model was used to estimate the pooled prevalence estimate (PPE), the heterogeneity and publication bias. We screened 2601 articles to obtain 47 eligible studies containing quantitative data on preschool-aged children. Of the selected studies, 44.7% (n = 22) were from East Africa while the least number of studies obtained (2.1%, n = 1) was from Central Africa. 21712 subjects were screened for infection due to Schistosoma spp; 13924 for S. mansoni and 7788 for S. haematobium. The PPE for schistosomiasis among PreSAC was 19% (95% CI: 11-28). Infection due to S. mansoni (IVhet PPE: 22% (95% CI: 9-36) was higher than that due to S. haematobium (15%; 95% CI: 6-25). A Luis Furuya-Kanamori index of 1.83 indicated a lack of publication bias. High level of heterogeneity was observed (I2 > 90%) and this could not be reduced through subgroup analysis. Schistosomiasis infection among pre-school aged children 6 years old and below is high. This indicates the importance of including this age group in treatment programmes to reduce infection prevalence and long-term morbidities associated with prolonged schistosome infection.

Estimating disease prevalence and temporal dynamics using biased capture serological data in a wildlife reservoir: The example of brucellosis in Alpine ibex (Capra ibex)

The monitoring of the disease prevalence in a population is an essential component of its adaptive management. However, field data often lead to biased estimates. This is the case for brucellosis infection of ibex in the Bargy massif (France). A test-and-cull program is being carried out in this area to manage the infection: captured animals are euthanized when seropositive, and marked and released when seronegative. Because this mountainous species is difficult to capture, field workers tend to focus the capture effort on unmarked animals. Indeed, marked animals are less likely to be infected, as they were controlled and negative during previous years. As the proportion of marked animals in the population becomes large, captured animals can no longer be considered as an unbiased sample of the population. We designed an integrated Bayesian model to correct this bias, by estimating the seroprevalence in the population as the combination of the separate estimates of the seroprevalence among unmarked animals (estimated from the data) and marked animals (estimated with a catalytic infection model, to circumvent the scarcity of the data). As seroprevalence may not be the most responsive parameter to management actions, we also estimated the proportion of animals in the population with an active bacterial infection. The actual infection status of captured animals was thus inferred as a function of their age and their level of antibodies, using a model based on bacterial cultures carried out for a sample of animals. Focusing on the population of adult females in the core area of the massif, i.e. with the highest seroprevalence, this observational study shows that seroprevalence has been divided by two between 2013 (51%) and 2018 (21%). Moreover, the likely estimated proportion of actively infected females in the same population, though very imprecise, has decreased from a likely estimate of 34% to less than 15%, suggesting that the management actions have been effective in reducing infection prevalence.

Role of High-Dose Exposure in Hot Zone Transmission as a Driver of SARS-CoV-2 Dynamics

Epidemiological data on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the absence and presence of various non-pharmaceutical interventions indicate that the virus is not transmitted uniformly in the population. Transmission tends to be more effective in select settings that involve exposure to relatively high viral dose, such as in crowded indoor settings, assisted living facilities, prisons, or food processing plants. To explore the effect on infection dynamics, we describe a new mathematical model where transmission can occur (i) in the community at large, characterized by low dose exposure and mostly mild disease, and (ii) in so called transmission hot zones, characterized by high dose exposure that can be associated with more severe disease. Interestingly, we find that successful infection spread can hinge upon high-dose hot zone transmission, while the majority of infections still occur in the community at large with mild disease. This gives rise to the prediction that targeted interventions that effectively reduce virus transmission in the hot zones have the potential to suppress overall infection spread, including in the community at large. The model can further reconcile seemingly contradicting epidemiological observations. While in some locations like California, strict stay-home orders failed to significantly reduce infection prevalence, in other locations, such as New York and several European countries, stay-home orders lead to a pronounced fall in infection levels, which remained suppressed for some months after re-opening of society. Differences in hot zone transmission levels during and after social distancing interventions can account for these diverging infection patterns. These modeling results warrant further epidemiological investigations into the role of high dose hot zone transmission for the maintenance of SARS-CoV-2 spread.Funding Statement: This work was funded in part by NSF DMS 1662146/1662096 (NK & DW). LMS is funded by NIH AI153396 and NS111416, and by start-up funds from Cornell UniversityDeclaration of Interests: None to declare.

Reactivation of latent infections with migration shapes population-level disease dynamics.

Annual migration is common across animal taxa and can dramatically shape the spatial and temporal patterns of infectious disease. Although migration can decrease infection prevalence in some contexts, these energetically costly long-distance movements can also have immunosuppressive effects that may interact with transmission processes in complex ways. Here, we develop a mechanistic model for the reactivation of latent infections driven by physiological changes or energetic costs associated with migration (i.e. 'migratory relapse') and its effects on disease dynamics. We determine conditions under which migratory relapse can amplify or reduce infection prevalence across pathogen and host traits (e.g. infectious periods, virulence, overwinter survival, timing of relapse) and transmission phenologies. We show that relapse at either the start or end of migration can dramatically increase prevalence across the annual cycle and may be crucial for maintaining pathogens with low transmissibility and short infectious periods in migratory populations. Conversely, relapse at the start of migration can reduce the prevalence of highly virulent pathogens by amplifying culling of infected hosts during costly migration, especially for highly transmissible pathogens and those transmitted during migration or the breeding season. Our study provides a mechanistic foundation for understanding the spatio-temporal patterns of relapsing infections in migratory hosts, with implications for zoonotic surveillance and understanding how infection patterns will respond to shifts in migratory propensity associated with environmental change. Further, our work suggests incorporating within-host processes into population-level models of pathogen transmission may be crucial for reconciling the range of migration-infection relationships observed across migratory species.

Effects of migration network configuration and migration synchrony on infection prevalence in geese

Migration can influence dynamics of pathogen-host interactions. However, it is not clearly known how migration pattern, in terms of the configuration of the migration network and the synchrony of migration, affects infection prevalence. We therefore applied a discrete-time SIR model, integrating environmental transmission and migration, to various migration networks, including networks with serial, parallel, or both serial and parallel stopover sites, and with various levels of migration synchrony. We applied the model to the infection of avian influenza virus in a migratory geese population. In a network with only serial stopover sites, increasing the number of stopover sites reduced infection prevalence, because with every new stopover site, the amount of virus in the environment was lower than that in the previous stopover site, thereby reducing the exposure of the migratory population. In a network with parallel stopover sites, both increasing the number and earlier appearance of the stopover sites led to an earlier peak of infection prevalence in the migratory population, because the migratory population is exposed to larger total amount of virus in the environment, speeding-up the infection accumulation. Furthermore, higher migration synchrony reduced the average number of cumulative infection, because the majority of the population can fly to a new stopover site where the amount of virus is still relatively low and has not been increased due to virus shedding of infected birds. Our simulations indicate that a migration pattern with multiple serial stopover sites and with highly synchronized migration reduces the infection prevalence.