Reduction In Homicides Research Articles

Willingness to pay for crime reduction: The role of information in the Americas

Crime levels are a perennial development problem in Latin America and a renewed concern in the United States. At the same time, trust in the police has been falling, and questions abound about citizens’ willingness to support government efforts to fight crime. We conduct a survey experiment to elicit willingness to contribute toward reducing crime across five Latin American countries and the United States. We compare homicide, robbery, and theft estimates and find a higher willingness to contribute to more severe crimes and for higher crime reductions. In addition, we examine the role of information on the willingness to contribute by conducting two experiments. While we document an 11 percent gap in willingness to pay for crime reduction between people who under and over-estimate the murder rate, we find that this gap can be wholly eliminated by informing respondents about the actual level of crime. We also show that exposing respondents to crime-related news increases their willingness to pay by 5 percent. On average, our estimates suggest that households are willing to contribute around $152 per year for a 20 percent reduction in homicide, representing an increase in security spending between 15 and 65 percent in Latin American countries (up to 0.5 percent of GDP).

A Realistic Evaluation of Homicide Reduction Programmes

A Realistic Evaluation of Homicide Reduction Programmes

The Potential of Minimum Wage Increases to Reduce Youth Homicide Disparities: Diminishing Returns for Black Youth.

We examine and compare the relationship between minimum wage increases and youth homicide rates in three groups: all youth, White youth only, and Black youth only. Using 2001-2019 mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) for all 50 states and Washington DC, we apply a difference in differences (DD) design to compare the change in youth homicides across states with varying changes in the state-specific minimum wage. With the inclusion of state-specific linear time trends, we find that a $1 increase in minimum wage leads to a significant 4% reduction (RR = 0.96, 95%CI [0.92, 0.99]) in homicides among White youth, but no significant reduction among Black youth (RR = 0.98, 95%CI [0.91, 1.04]). Findings are consistent with research on marginalization-related diminished returns for Black youth. While minimum wage increases are a promising step to reduce youth homicides overall, reducing homicide disparities experienced by Black youth requires additional components. Future research should examine policies with the specific intention to dismantle structural racism.

The Relationship Between State-Level Earned Income Tax Credits and Violent Crime.

Policies that provide economic support, such as the earned income tax credit (EITC), improve peoples' ability to meet their basic needs and reduce stress, which can reduce violence perpetration. Refundable state-level EITCs have been associated with decreases in multiple forms of violence (e.g., child abuse and neglect); however, it is unknown whether there is an association between the EITC and violent crime as captured by Uniform Crime Reports. Crime and violence remain a pressing concern for many communities across the nation. Using a longitudinal data set, we conducted fixed-effects regression models with year and state specified as fixed effects, to determine whether variations in generosity of state-level EITCs are related to the rate of violent crime. After adjusting for demographic covariates, refundable state-level EITCs remained significantly associated with reductions in criminal homicide compared to states without an EITC. As many states attempt to combat crime and prevent violence in their communities, anti-poverty measures such as the EITC provide a promising strategy for reducing the social and economic costs associated with violence.

The Contribution of Sesotho Literature Books Read in Lesotho Secondary Schools in Perpetuating and Reinforcing Gender Stereotypes

Purpose: The overarching purpose of this research was to investigate the presence of gender stereotypes in the books used for teaching of Sesotho Literature in Lesotho secondary schools with a view towards recommending corrective interventions to the challenge. The study examined how physical attributes, character traits, gender roles within households and communities, and occupational roles were assigned to males and females in these books. Additionally, the research explored the power dynamics between male and female genders as depicted in these books. These categories served as the basis for coding and analysing the data. The study selected a purposive sample of four literary genres namely novels, dramas, poetry, and short stories. Methodology: Given the nature of the study, qualitative deductive content analysis was employed to gather and analyse the data from the chapters, stories, and poems within each of the genres. Findings: The findings indicated a significant prevalence of culturally constructed gender stereotypes within the examined works. The most important finding was that literature books perpetuate negative stereotypes which makes education a key contributor to some of the gender related problems. Unique contribution to theory, policy and practice: This research contributes to promotion of gender parity, reduction of gender-based violence and homicides which are problems ravaging the nation today.

Relationships of State Alcohol Policy Environments With Homicides and Suicides

IntroductionAlcohol use is involved in a large proportion of homicides and suicides each year in the United States, but there is limited evidence on how policies targeting alcohol influence violence in the U.S. context. Extant studies generally focus on individual policies in isolation of each other. This study examines of the effects of changes in states’ alcohol policy restrictions on overall homicide and suicide rates and firearm-related homicide and suicide rates using a holistic measure of states’ alcohol policy environments. MethodsUsing a composite measure of state-level alcohol policies (Alcohol Policy Scale) and data from the National Vital Statistics System from 2002 to 2018, this study applied a Bayesian time series model to estimate the effects of alcohol policy changes on overall and firearm-involved homicide and suicide rates. The analysis was performed in 2023 and 2024. ResultsA one standard deviation change in the Alcohol Policy Scale was associated with a 6 percent decline in homicide rates both overall (IRR=0.94; 95-percent credibility interval = [0.89, 1.00]) and for firearm homicides specifically (IRR=0.94, 95-percent CI=[0.88, 1.01]). There was no clear association of alcohol policy with suicides. The model predicts that a nationwide increase in alcohol restrictions equivalent to a shift from the 25th to 75th percentile of the scale's distribution would result in almost 1200 fewer homicides annually. ConclusionsIncreases in the restrictiveness of state-level alcohol policies are associated with reductions in homicides. More restrictive alcohol policy environments may offer an opportunity to reduce homicides.

The spatial and economic relationship between labour informality and homicides in Cali, Colombia

AbstractMotivationIn the analysis of the relationship between the labour market and crime, the variable that comes from the labour market is generally the unemployment rate. However, there are labour market characteristics that are more significant than unemployment, such as labour informality, in the context of violent crime in low‐income and middle‐income countries.PurposeThis article aims to estimate the spatial and economic relationship between homicides and labour informality by neighbourhood in Cali, the city with the highest homicide rate currently and historically in Colombia.Methods and approachUsing administrative data and a unique survey of formal and informal labour market conditions, we estimate a Spatial Durbin Model to capture the spatial endogeneity of the relationship between homicides and the labour market in the city's neighbourhoods.FindingsThe main results show evidence of the positive spatial and economic relationship between labour informality and homicides in the city's neighbourhoods. In addition, the bulk of this effect occurs in some hillside settlement neighbourhoods with characteristics associated with acute labour informality.Policy implicationsWe propose a social and economic development programme to improve the conditions of the informal labour market and therefore achieve a reduction in homicides in specific areas, such as city hot spots found in our spatial results.

Electoral Democracy and Working-Age Mortality.

Working-age mortality rates are high and rising in the United States, an alarming fact that predates the COVID-19 pandemic. Although several reasons for the high and rising rates have been hypothesized, the potential role of democratic erosion has been overlooked. This study examined the association between electoral democracy and working-age mortality and assessed how economic, behavioral, and social factors may have contributed to it. We used the State Democracy Index (SDI), an annual summary of each state's electoral democracy from 2000 to 2018. We merged the SDI with annual age-adjusted mortality rates for adults 25-64 years in each state. Models estimated the association between the SDI and working-age mortality (from all causes and six specific causes) within states, adjusting for political party control, safety net generosity, union coverage, immigrant population, and stable characteristics of states. We assessed whether economic (income, unemployment), behavioral (alcohol consumption, sleep), and social (marriage, violent crime, incarceration) factors accounted for the association. Increasing electoral democracy in a state from a moderate level (defined as the third quintile of the SDI distribution) to a high level (defined as the fifth quintile) was associated with an estimated 3.2% and 2.7% lower mortality rate among working-age men and women, respectively, over the next year. Increasing electoral democracy in all states from the third to the fifth quintile of the SDI distribution may have resulted in 20,408 fewer working-age deaths in 2019. The democracy-mortality association mainly reflected social factors and, to a lesser extent, health behaviors. Increasing electoral democracy in a state was mostly strongly associated with lower mortality from drug poisoning and infectious diseases, followed by reductions in homicide and suicide. Erosion of electoral democracy is a threat to population health. This study adds to growing evidence that electoral democracy and population health are inextricably linked.

Variation in youth and young adult homicide rates and their association with city characteristics in Latin America: the SALURBAL study

Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is one of the most urbanized and violent regions worldwide. Homicides in youth (15-24 years old, yo) and young adults (25-39yo) are an especially pressing public health problem. Yet there is little research on how city characteristics relate to homicide rates in youth and young adults. We aimed to describe homicide rates among youth and young adults, as well as their association with socioeconomic and built environment factors across 315 cities in eight LAC countries. This is an ecological study. We estimated homicide rates in youth and young adults for the period 2010-2016. We investigated associations of homicide rates with sub-city education and GDP, Gini, density, landscape isolation, population and population growth using sex-stratified negative binomial models with city and sub-city level random intercepts, and country-level fixed effects. The mean sub-city homicide rate per 100,000 in persons aged 15-24 was 76.9 (SD=95.9) in male and 6.7 (SD=8.5) in female, and in persons aged 25-39 was 69.4 (SD=68.9) in male and 6.0 (SD=6.7) in female. Rates were higher in Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and El Salvador than in Argentina, Chile, Panama and Peru. There was significant variation in rates across cities and sub-cities, even after accounting for the country. In fully adjusted models, higher sub-city education scores and higher city GDP were associated with a lower homicide rate among male and female (rate ratios (RR) per SD higher value in male and female, respectively, 0.87 (CI 0.84-0.90) and 0.90 (CI 0.86-0.93) for education and 0.87 (CI 0.81-0.92) and 0.92 (CI 0.87-0.97) for GDP). A higher city Gini index was associated with higher homicide rates (RR 1.28 (CI 1.10-1.48) and 1.21 (CI 1.07-1.36) in male and female, respectively). Greater isolation da was also associated with higher homicide rates (RR 1.13 (CI 1.07-1.21) and 1.07 (CI 1.02-1.12) in male and female, respectively). City and sub-city factors are associated with homicide rates. Improvements to education, social conditions and inequality and physical integration of cities may contribute to the reduction of homicides in the region. The Wellcome Trust [205177/Z/16/Z].

Effects of the Pelotas (Brazil) Peace Pact on violence and crime: a synthetic control analysis

City-led interventions are increasingly advocated to achieve the UN's Sustainable Development Goal to reduce violence for all. We used a new quantitative evaluation method to examine whether a flagship programme, called the "Pelotas Pact for Peace" (the Pacto), has been effective in reducing violence and crime in the city of Pelotas, Brazil. We used synthetic control methodology to assess the effects of the Pacto from August 2017 to December 2021, and separately before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Outcomes included monthly rates of homicide and property crime, and yearly rates of assault against women and school drop-out. We constructed synthetic controls (counterfactuals) based on weighted averages from a donor pool of municipalities in Rio Grande do Sul. Weights were identified using pre-intervention outcome trends and confounders (sociodemographics, economics, education, health and development, and drug trafficking). The Pacto led to an overall 9% reduction in homicide and 7% reduction in robbery in Pelotas. These effects were not uniform across the full post-intervention period as clear effects were only seen during the pandemic period. A 38% reduction in homicide was also specifically associated with the criminal justice strategy of Focussed Deterrence. No significant effects were found for non-violent property crimes, violence against women, and school dropout, irrespective of the post-intervention period. City-level interventions that combine public health and criminal justice approaches could be effective in tackling violence in Brazil. Continued monitoring and evaluation efforts are increasingly needed as cities are proposed as key opportunities for reducing violence for all. This research was funded by the Wellcome Trust [grant number: 210735_Z_18_Z].

POLICE REFORM IN DIVIDED TIMES

POLICE REFORM IN DIVIDED TIMES

Preventing Urban Firearm Homicides during COVID-19: Preliminary Results from Three Cities with the Advance Peace Program.

The years 2020–2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic witnessed increases in firearm violence in many cities across the USA. We present data from Sacramento, Stockton, and Richmond, California that suggests firearm homicides during the pandemic did not increase in all communities or disproportionately burden the African American community. More specifically, we found that in these cities, there was a 5–52% decrease in gun homicides during the 2020/2021 period compared to the 2018/2019 period for neighborhoods with a gun violence prevention program operating there. We also found a 24–83% reduction in gun homicides in census tracts with > 20% Black populations in Sacramento and Stockton during the 2020/2021 period compared to the 2018/2019 period. In two cities, there was a 15–42% decrease in the number of African American men under 35 years old that were victims of a gun homicide in 2021 compared to 2018. We also found that the gun violence program operating in these cities called Advance Peace interrupted 202 street-level conflicts where guns were present across the three cities in 2020/2021 compared to 178 of the same conflicts in 2018/2019. These interruptions likely saved hundreds of lives and we estimate contributed to between US $65 and $494 million in savings. Advance Peace is a program that engages those at the center of gun violence, frequently young, Black men under 35 years old, and offers them the Peacemaker Fellowship, an intensive, 18-month program of 24/7 mentorship, social services, and life opportunities. The program is delivered by community resident “credible messengers,” who conduct the mentorship and interrupt conflicts in the streets. While these findings are descriptive and preliminary, we know of no other program that was in operation before and during the pandemic in each of these cities that engaged the hard-to-reach but highly influential population at the center of gun violence.

Simulating the bounds of plausibility: Estimating the impact of high-risk versus population-based approaches to prevent firearm injury.

BackgroundFirearm violence remains a persistent public health threat. Comparing the impact of targeted high-risk versus population-based approaches to prevention may point to efficient and efficacious interventions. We used agent-based modeling to conduct a hypothetical experiment contrasting the impact of high-risk (disqualification) and population-based (price increase) approaches on firearm homicide in New York City (NYC).MethodsWe simulated 800,000 agents reflecting a 15% sample of the adult population of NYC. Three groups were considered and disqualified from all firearm ownership for five years, grouped based on prevalence: low prevalence (psychiatric hospitalization, alcohol-related misdemeanor and felony convictions, 0.23%); moderate prevalence (drug misdemeanor convictions, domestic violence restraining orders, 1.03%); and high prevalence (all other felony/misdemeanor convictions, 2.30%). Population-level firearm ownership was impacted by increasing the price of firearms, assuming 1% price elasticity.ResultsIn this hypothetical scenario, to reduce firearm homicide by 5% in NYC, 25% of the moderate prevalence group, or 12% of the high prevalence group needed to be effectively disqualified; even when all of the low prevalence group was disqualified, homicide did not decrease by 5%. An 18% increase in price similarly reduced firearm homicide by 5.37% (95% CI 4.43–6.31%). Firearm homicide declined monotonically as the proportion of disqualified individuals increased and/or price increased. A combined intervention that both increased price and effectively disqualified “high-risk” groups achieved approximately double the reduction in homicide as any one intervention alone. Increasing illegal firearm ownership by 20%, a hypothetical response to price increases, did not meaningfully change results.ConclusionA key takeaway of our study is that adopting high-risk versus population-based approaches should not be an “either-or” question. When individual risk is variable and diffuse in the population, “high-risk approaches” to firearm violence need to focus on relatively prevalent groups and be highly efficacious in disarming people at elevated risk to achieve meaningful reductions in firearm homicide, though countering issues of social justice and stigma should be carefully considered. Similar reductions can be achieved with population-based approaches, such as price increases, albeit with fewer such countering issues.

Effects of long-term development and schooling expansion on the decline in homicide rates: Mexico from 1950 to 2005

ABSTRACT Based on a recently published historical crime database that shows an unequivocal reduction of homicides in Mexico from the 1950s up until 2005, this paper aims to examine the effect of development policies on homicide reduction in 20th century Mexico. This research presents a panel regression of homicide rates in all 32 Mexican states from 1950 to 2005. Our research shows that the increase in schooling years in Mexico is correlated with the decline in homicide rates. This decline happened despite inverse pressure from social disorganisation caused by unequal economic growth and youth bulges during the period examined. Consequently, the paper shows that sustained development policies can be a pacifying mechanism in a country that has experienced accelerated urban growth and other structural problems associated with crime since the beginning of the century.

Trends in Homicide Hospitalization and Mortality in Taiwan, 1998-2015.

In Taiwan, the national research on homicide is rare, mostly discussing the issue of child abuse. We sought to better understand the characteristics and risk factors of homicide through a retrospective cohort study from 1998 to 2015. “Child battering and other maltreatment” ranked first for the 0–4 age group and second for the 5–14 age group. The hospital mortality was 511 deaths. We found that the 25–44 age group had the highest risk and accounted for 44.76% of hospitalization. The most common causes were “fight, brawl, and rape” (49.12%), “cutting and piercing instruments,” (13.16%) and “child battering and other forms of maltreatment” (4.72%). Additionally, the percentages of “fight, brawl, and rape,” “firearms and explosives,” and “cutting and piercing instruments” were significantly higher among males than among females. The percentages of “hanging and strangulation,” “corrosive or caustic substance,” “child battering and other maltreatment,” “submersion,” and “poisoning” were significantly higher among females than males. Factors associated with homicide in-hospital mortality included gender, age, low income, catastrophic disease, Charlson comorbidity index score, urbanization level, hospital level, classification of hospitalization, and surgery. Overall, the trend of hospitalization rates due to homicide decreased both by gender and age group, except for the 0–4 age group: cause of homicide first, hanging and strangulation second, firearms and explosives third; type of injury, hospitalized patients with “vascular injuries” first, joint and muscle sprain, and intracranial, chest, and abdominal pelvic injuries second, and “burns” third with a higher risk of death. Homicide reduction requires a comprehensive strategy beyond specific victim groups. Interagency collaboration should be strengthened, especially between law enforcement/criminal justice and public health.

Goldilocks and the three “Ts”: Targeting, testing, and tracking for “just right” democratic policing

AbstractResearch SummaryPolice are often criticized for doing “too much” or “too little” policing in various situations. These criticisms amount to testable hypotheses about whether “less” force, or intensity, or enforcement would have been enough, or whether “more” was needed. The rise of evidence‐based policing provides a starting point for public dialogues about those hypotheses, in ways that could help to build police legitimacy. Such dialogues can be focused on the questions posed by the three “Ts”: (1) Is police action targeted in a way that is proportionate to the harm that it can prevent? (2) Has the action been tested and found effective with the kinds of targets, and their levels of harm, where it is being used? (3) Is police action tracked to ensure it is delivered in the way that has been tested, and in compliance with relevant legal requirements? In this lecture, I frame the issue as follows: Can more widespread use of better research evidence on targeting, testing, and tracking police actions, shared more clearly among the public and police, help reduce the wide range of oscillation between over‐policing and under‐policing?Policy ImplicationsThe use of these questions in public dialogue would be especially relevant to the three biggest threats to police legitimacy in the aftermath of George Floyd's murder: (A) police killing people, (B) police stopping people, and (C) police under‐patrolling high‐crime hot spots (while over‐patrolling low‐crime areas). One result of applying the three‐Ts questions to these threats, for example, could be the end of the vast overuse of stop and search in low‐violence areas. At the same time, this approach could also lead to reductions in homicide by increasing stops in highest violence hot spots. Such changes could demonstrate how the “Goldilocks principle” for the three Ts could get policing closer to “just right” for each place and person being policed.

Firearm Relinquishment Laws Associated With Substantial Reduction In Homicide Of Pregnant And Postpartum Women.

Homicide is a leading cause of death among women who are pregnant and up to one year postpartum in the United States. Most incidents are perpetrated by an intimate partner with a firearm. Some states have implemented laws that prohibit firearm possession by perpetrators of domestic violence and, in some instances, include explicit statutory language mandating relinquishment of firearms once a person has become prohibited from possessing them. We examined the impact of these policies on state-level rates of homicide among pregnant and postpartum women during the period 2011-19. We found that state laws prohibiting possession of firearms and requiring relinquishment of firearms by people convicted of domestic violence-related misdemeanors were associated with substantial reductions in homicide of pregnant and postpartum women. State policy makers should consider further strengthening domestic violence-related firearm regulations and their enforcement to prevent homicide of pregnant and postpartum women.

Child access prevention laws and juvenile firearm-related homicides

Debate over safe-storage gun regulations has captured public attention in the aftermath of several high-profile shootings committed by minors. To date, the existing literature provides no evidence that these laws are effective at deterring gun crime, a conclusion that has prompted the National Rifle Association to assert that such regulations are “unnecessary” and “ineffective.” Using data from the FBI's Supplementary Homicide Reports for the period 1985–2013, we find that child access prevention (CAP) laws are associated with a 17 percent reduction in firearm-related homicides committed by juveniles. The estimated effect is stronger among whites than nonwhites and is driven by states enforcing the strictest safe-storage standard. We find no evidence that CAP laws are associated with firearm-related homicides committed by adults or with non-firearm-related homicides committed by juveniles, suggesting that the observed relationship between CAP laws and juvenile firearm-related homicides is causal.

Structural advocacy organizations and intersectional outcomes: The role of Women Police Stations

By introducing the concept of ‘structural advocacy organizations’, this study theorizes and tests the boundary conditions within which institutions designed to protect the rights of disenfranchised groups promote structural changes at the gender and race intersection. We test these claims on Brazil’s Women Police Stations, a type of structural advocacy organization with greater female representation on staff, and with specialized procedures and an institutional mandate to address violence against women. The analysis indicates that women police stations reduce homicides among the population of women as compared to conventional police stations. However, homicides committed against women of color only drop in municipalities with high levels of education and in metropolitan areas, but even in these locations, the effects of Women Police Stations on homicide reduction are lower for women of color. The results suggest that structural advocacy organizations innovate to address structural disenfranchisement; nonetheless, improving intersectional outcomes requires complementary policies

The mitigating effect of low firearm background check requirements on firearm homicides in border states

:Background:Firearm-related violence is a significant public health issue in the US. Research has found an increase in guns used in crimes sourced from low gun law states into high gun law states. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effect of distance from states without universal background checks (UBC), background checks at shows (BCS), or permit to purchase (PTP) laws on firearm homicide rates in states with them.Methods:States were identified based on their enactment of laws that are designed to prevent the private sale of firearms to criminals. Demographic data for each county were obtained for the years 2014 through 2017. The border distance from a county in a state with the evaluated gun laws to the nearest border state without the gun laws was obtained using Google Maps. Multiple regression analyses were performed to test the relationship between border distance and firearm homicide rates. Results:The regression model evaluating all formats found the border distance was negatively associated with firearm homicides (p=.009). The parameter estimate indicated as border distance increased, the firearm homicide rate decreased. When counties with UBC or PTP on all guns were evaluated separately from all formats model, the statistical significance was lost (p=.62). In counties where all handgun sales either require a background check or a PTP is required, the distance was also not statistically significant (p=.11). Conclusions:This study provides evidence that there may be a mitigating effect on the reduction of firearm homicides in states that require background checks or PTP on private sales when there is a state in close proximity that did not have these laws. Limited counties at certain distances may have contributed to the insignificant findings in other models.