Reduction In Gross Domestic Product Research Articles

Пандемия COVID-19: экономические и политические последствия

In March 2020 the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 virus has reached the stage of a pandemic. With over 700 million cases of the disease and close to 7 million deaths recorded through May 2023 it turned out to have become the most disastrous pandemic after the Spanish flu of 1918–1919. It had a severe impact on all spheres of human life. In addition to having caused a huge stress of the public health care systems, it affected the functioning of the political and economic systems of all countries. This paper provides an analysis of economic and political consequences of the pandemic, gives an overview of its human toll, and discusses the unresolved issue of SARS-CoV-2 origin. The economic consequences of the pandemic, including reduction in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), trade and travel, growth in unemployment rate, etc. were quite significant. Political aspects included the ability of the countries’ leadership to provide a justified, solid and well-coordinated response to the threat as well as trust in the activities of a government on behalf of citizens. Not all politicians were able to meet the high standards of performance in the emergency situation. Unwillingness of western countries to acknowledge the efficacy of the Russian Sputnik V vaccine is an example of political and economic controversies between states. The probability of the occurrence of similar pandemics in the future is rather high. Utilizing the lessons learned from the COVID-19, scaling up the investments in the diseases surveillance and response systems, in hospital preparedness as well as in scientific research and vaccines development along with international cooperation, transparency and information sharing between countries on the above issues is crucial for facilitating the pandemic response in the future and avoiding the challenges encountered during the COVID-19 crisis of 2020–2023.

Labour productivity and economic impacts of carbon mitigation: a modelling study and benefit–cost analysis

Despite the emerging carbon neutrality pledges from different countries, it is still unclear how much these pledges would cost and how the costs would compare with the economic benefits. Comparisons at the country level are important for tightening country-specific emissions trajectories to keep the temperature limit targets outlined in the Paris Agreement within reach. We aimed to systematically estimate avoided heat-related labour productivity losses against the costs of climate change mitigation at country and regional levels. In this modelling study, to address the above-mentioned research gaps, we first selected two representative climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 [RCP6.0] scenario, a higher warming scenario representing limited mitigation pledges before the Paris Agreement with around 3°C warming by the end of this century; and RCP2.6 scenario, a lower warming scenario assuming global temperature rise is limited to 2°C) and estimated heat-related labour productivity loss using the exposure-response function at country and regional levels. By representing the direct heat-related labour productivity losses in a multiregional global computable general equilibrium model, we then did a benefit-cost analysis to quantify the economic benefits of avoided heat-related labour productivity losses as well as the estimated reduction in gross domestic product (GDP) related to carbon reduction. By 2100, the overall economic losses due to heat-related labour productivity loss could range from about 1·5% of global GDP under the RCP6.0 scenario to about 0·1% of global GDP under the RCP2.6 scenario. The productivity losses will be highly concentrated in low-latitude regions, especially in southeast Asia, India, and the Middle East, implying the necessity of additional adaptation measures. By 2100, about 51·8% of global climate change mitigation costs could be offset by economic benefits from reduced labour productivity losses. Cumulatively, about 17·0% of climate change mitigation costs could be offset by the economic benefits between 2020 and 2100, when using a 2% social discounting rate. The costs and benefits of climate change mitigation will be distributed highly unevenly across regions due to their varying climate zones and economic structures. Regions with benefits from reduced productivity losses higher than mitigation costs are mainly low-latitude and tropical regions with lower income and lower emissions, such as southeast Asia, Brazil, and Mexico. More than half the climate change mitigation costs could be offset by the economic benefits by 2100 for the world's largest emitters, including the USA, China, the EU, and India. Low benefit-cost ratios are expected in economies that rely on fossil fuels, such as Canada, Russia, and the Middle East. Although pledging carbon neutrality implies radical changes to most economies, substantial health and economic gains can be achieved by reduced heat-related labour productivity loss, even without accounting for other benefits. The benefit-cost analysis in this study shows the potential for choosing more stringent climate change mitigation pathways in some regions. Regions with low benefit-cost ratios need to restructure their economies to reduce mitigation costs as well as losses from declined fossil fuel exports. National Natural Science Foundation of China, Tsinghua-Toyota Joint Research Fund, the Wellcome Trust, Tsinghua University-China Three Gorges Corporation Joint Research Center for Climate Governance Mechanism and Green Low-carbon Transformation Strategy, the National Research Foundation, Prime Minister's Office, Singapore (Campus for Research Excellence and Technological Enterprise [CREATE] programme), and the Global Energy Interconnection Development and Coorperation Organization.

Estimated impact of the 2020 economic downturn on under-5 mortality for 129 countries.

In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), economic downturns can lead to increased child mortality by affecting dietary, environmental, and care-seeking factors. This study estimates the potential loss of life in children under five years old attributable to economic downturns in 2020. We used a multi-level, mixed effects model to estimate the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and under-5 mortality rates (U5MRs) specific to each of 129 LMICs. Public data were retrieved from the World Bank World Development Indicators database and the United Nations World Populations Prospects estimates for the years 1990-2020. Country-specific regression coefficients on the relationship between child mortality and GDP were used to estimate the impact on U5MR of reductions in GDP per capita of 5%, 10%, and 15%. A 5% reduction in GDP per capita in 2020 was estimated to cause an additional 282,996 deaths in children under 5 in 2020. At 10% and 15%, recessions led to higher losses of under-5 lives, increasing to 585,802 and 911,026 additional deaths, respectively. Nearly half of all the potential under-5 lives lost in LMICs were estimated to occur in Sub-Saharan Africa. Because most of these deaths will likely be due to nutrition and environmental factors amenable to intervention, countries should ensure continued investments in food supplementation, growth monitoring, and comprehensive primary health care to mitigate potential burdens.

The 1.5°C climate and energy scenarios: impacts on economic growth

Abstract In the context of calls for ‘de-growth’ (reduction in gross domestic product, [GDP]) in developed countries for them to be able to reduce emissions to ‘net zero’ in time for the temperature target in the Paris Agreement to be met, this article explores the various impacts on economic growth in the scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that limit the average global temperature increase in 2100 to 1.5°C. It finds that the impacts are generally small and that in no case is ‘degrowth’ required, although the requirements for the rate and nature of technological developments are challenging. The article then reports on a modelling exercise that investigates in more detail the economic dynamics of achieving the 1.5°C target. It finds that, as with the IPCC scenarios, and assuming the feasibility of at-scale deployment of carbon capture and negative emission technologies, economic growth continues throughout this century, with a major contribution coming from the investment required to decarbonise the energy system.

Inhibition of biofilm produced by methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) by thymoquinone.

Multidrug resistance is a leading public health challenge that is causing a significant increase in mortality and morbidity. If antimicrobial resistance (AMR) remains unsolved, it may cause 10 million deaths every year. Along with a public health concern, it is also a financial concern that would cause 2-3.5% reduction in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and a 100 trillion USD loss to the world. One of the ways to combat AMR is to discover new antibiotics. This study was aimed to evaluate the antibiofilm and antibacterial potencies of essential oil of Nigella sativa. Standard microbiological guidelines (CLSI) were used for the identification and antibiogram of selected strains of MRSA. Moreover, a time-kill assay of MRSA against Thymoquinone extracted from Nigella Sativa was also performed. Five strains, including four MRSA strains from implants related infections and one standard strain ATCC 25923, were examined. GC-MS identified components of essential oil of Nigella Sativa. Thymoquinone and p-cymene, major compounds of essential oil, were subjected to antibacterial and antibiofilm activities. Thymoquinone revealed strong inhibitory activities against MRSA strains. Zone inhibition measured 22 to 44 mm, and MIC values ranged from 26 to 43 Ul/mL. Thymoquinone also exhibited strong antibiofilm activity against biofilm producer MDR strains of Staphylococcus aureus.

Can we live within environmental limits and still reduce poverty? Degrowth or decoupling?

Can we live within environmental limits and still reduce poverty? Degrowth or decoupling?

CRUDE OIL PRICE VOLATILITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: MEDIATING ROLE OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

This study examines the correlation between oil price fluctuation and absolute business development in Pakistan. Our study focusses on three economic sectors, agriculture and livestock, manufacturing and electricity production and transportation from 1980 to 2018 using the autoregressive distributed lag, with linear regression to evaluate the (time series or panel) data (please elaborate the frequency of data as well either it is daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly or yearly data). Our findings reveal negative impact of oil price on the economic development overall, and manufacturing, electricity production and livestock sectors individually; while, there is positive relationship observed with communication and transport sectors. There is need for policymaker’s attention on highly oil-dependent sectors to run their operations. Empirical findings suggest a 30% shortage of oil supply responsible for the highest fluctuated structure of oil pricing, which suddenly increases the projected welfare loss through a 40% reduction in gross domestic product. This study suggests that the country should maintain a minimum 100-day strategic petroleum reserves to hedge any adverse effect of oil price fluctuation on economic and social welfare losses.

Are the emissions trading systems’ simulations generated with a computable general equilibrium model sensitive to the nested production structure?

Computable general equilibrium models are becoming popular for simulating emissions trading systems. However, these models make various assumptions about the production structure and the possibilities of substituting energy for productive factors or inputs. Therefore, this study aims to analyze how different options to incorporate energy into the nested production structure of a computable general equilibrium model affect the obtained impacts when an emissions trading system is implemented. A flexible computable general equilibrium model called ECOMODEL is developed, which is the first model that allows choosing any of the three nested production structures most used in the literature (KEL-M, KL-EM, or KLE-M). The Chilean economy is used as a case study since there is a current database with high disaggregation of the energy sector for calibrating the computable general equilibrium model. The results show that the simulated impacts with KEL-M and KL-EM structures are the best when elasticities of substitution equal to the values ​​most frequently used in previous studies are chosen. However, the KEL-M structure that considers energy as a substitute for capital provides overly optimistic environmental results when high elasticities of substitution are used, obtaining the lowest reduction in Gross Domestic Product and the lowest price of the emissions trading system. Furthermore, the KLE-M structure gives unrealistic results regardless of the elasticities of substitution used. In consequence, a KL-EM nested production structure should be prioritized to simulate an emissions trading system since it provides realistic results and is less sensitive to the values of the elasticities of substitution.

Pandemics and Multiple Crises in Latin America.

The crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic is certainly one of the worst in recent Latin American history. Forecasts for 2020 show a drop in the exports sector of approximately 23%, and a 9% reduct ...

Atmospheric Emission Changes and Their Economic Impacts during the COVID-19 Pandemic Lockdown in Argentina

This work studied the emission changes and their economic effects during the Argentina’s COVID-19 pandemic lockdown. We have analyzed the atmospheric emissions of the main greenhouse gases (GHG: CO2, CH4, and N2O) and other pollutants (NOx, CO, NMVOC, SO2, PM10, PM2.5, and BC) from various sectors such as private road transport, freight, public transport, agriculture machines, thermal power plants, residential, commercial, and governmental from January 2005 to April 2020. We focused on the months with the greatest restrictions of COVID-19 pandemic in Argentina (March and April 2020). The results show emissions reduction up to 37% for PM10, PM2.5, and BC, consistent with observed from satellite images and up to 160% for NOx, CO, NMVOC, and SOx. However, the residential sector has increased their emissions by 8% for the same period. As a consequence, 3337 Gg of CO2eq of GHG emissions were reduced, corresponding to a 20% reduction compared to the same period in 2019. Besides, a 26% reduction in gross domestic product (GDP) was observed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results show that each Tg of GHG reduction was associated to a 0.16% reduction of the GDP from the analyzed sectors. Thus, without a voluntary reduction in consumption associated to significant cultural and technological changes, reduction in GHG would still be associated with deepening inequalities and asymmetries between high and low consumption sectors (i.e., with better (lesser) education, health, and job opportunities), even within countries and cities.

Estimation of Direct and Indirect Economic Losses Caused by a Flood With Long‐Lasting Inundation: Application to the 2011 Thailand Flood

AbstractRiver floods are common natural disasters that cause serious economic damage worldwide. In addition to direct economic damage, such as the destruction of physical assets, floods with long‐lasting inundation cause direct and indirect economic losses within and outside the affected area. Direct economic losses include loss of opportunity, due to interruption of business activities, and the costs associated with emergency measures such as cleaning, while indirect economic losses affect sectors within the trade and supply network. Few studies have explicitly estimated direct and indirect economic losses in several sectors, due to the difficulty of modeling inundation depth and period at finer scales. Here we developed a global modeling framework to estimate the direct and indirect economic losses associated with floods using a computable general equilibrium model and a global river and inundation model, which can simulate the flood extent, depth, and period. Application of the method to the 2011 Thailand flood demonstrated that the estimated economic losses due to business interruption in the industry and service sectors totaled $14.7 billion, which was about two thirds of the estimated direct economic damage caused by the flood ($22.0 billion). The estimated indirect economic losses reduced the gross domestic product of Thailand by 4.81% in 2011, without considering transboundary effects, and will cause more than 0.5% reduction in gross domestic product even in 2030, resulting in $55.3 billion of total losses from 2011 to 2030. Comprehensive estimation of direct and indirect economic losses facilitates understanding of various types of flood‐related economic risks during and after a flood.

Climate Change Vulnerability on the Inhabitants of Yenagoa, Bayelsa State

The study examines the level of climate change vulnerability on the inhabitants of Yenagoa, and determine the adaptation strategies in the area. Temperature and rainfall data were obtained from the archive of Global Precipitation Climatological Centre (GPCC) and Nigeria Meteorological Agency Satellite for Yenagoa for 62 years (1958 to 2019. Also, 400 copies of questionnaire were administered. The result showed high level vulnerability of climate change that has precipitated sea level rise, flooding, rise in temperature. Thus, leading to decline in farmland, food insecurity, headers farmers’ crisis, reduction in forest resources, growth and development of crops and increase in pest and diseases. It has also impacted the educational system negatively such as disruption in the educational system, closure of schools, lateness to school, relocation of students, destruction of bridges, and road accident and irregular traffic flows. Other are low patronage in recreation and tourism, low turnout for outdoor games, and destruction of tourism facilities. Others a rereduction in income, high cost of living, reduction in gross domestic product (GDP). The study therefore posited climate insurance, promotion of alternatives farming practices, carbon sequestration, green city green roof approach amongst others as the adaptation strategies

Why Invest to Prevent Child Abuse? The Budgetary Impact of Direct, Indirect and Collateral Derived Costs

Violence, and neglect in childhood, present innumerable economic costs to nations, whose impact on spending the public budget fluctuates between 15% and 25% of the annual government budget, as shown by several studies carried out in the United States, the European Union, and Mexico. The Center of Developing Child, of Harvard, emphazises that during the first years of life, the development of the brain can be physiologically altered by the prolonged and severe abuse of a child, over time, the brain of a 3 year old child, grows disproportionately large and heavy [1], reaching nearly 90% of the size of an adult brain. This alteration in the development of the brain can negatively impact the physical, cognitive, emotional and social development, whose consequences will always be present, even 30, 40 or 50 years later. International studies with significant data, are herein in summary presented. All in unison insists not only on preventing but on eradicating child maltreatment, considering this scourge as the determining element that havoc in government budgets. With an encourage exhortatory that by investing in preventing children from violence, a significant reduction in gross domestic product from 20 to 25% would be achieved

Economic Impacts of Increased U.S. Exports of Natural Gas: An Energy System Perspective

With the recent shale gas boom, the U.S. is expected to have very large natural gas resources. In this respect, the key question is would it be better to rely completely on free market resource allocations which would lead to large exports of natural gas or to limit natural gas exports so that more could be used in the U.S.. After accounting for the cost of liquefying the natural gas and shipping it to foreign markets, the current price difference leaves room for considerable profit to producers from exports. In addition, there is a large domestic demand for natural gas from various sectors such as electricity generation, industrial applications, and the transportation sector etc. A hybrid modeling approach has been carried out using our version of the well-known MARket ALlocation (MARKAL)-Macro model to keep bottom-up model richness with macro effects to incorporate price and gross domestic product (GDP) feedbacks. One of the conclusion of this study is that permitting higher natural gas export levels leads to a small reduction in GDP (0.04%–0.17%). Higher exports also increases U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and electricity prices (1.1%–7.2%). We also evaluate the impacts of natural gas exports in the presence of a Clean Energy Standard (CES) for electricity. In this case, the GDP impacts are similar, but the electricity and transport sector impacts are different.

Economic Impacts of a California Tsunami

AbstractThe economic consequences of a tsunami scenario for Southern California are estimated using computable general equilibrium analysis. The economy is modeled as a set of interconnected supply chains interacting through markets but with explicit constraints stemming from property damage and business downtime. Economic impacts are measured by the reduction of Gross Domestic Product for Southern California, Rest of California, and U.S. economies. For California, total economic impacts represent the general equilibrium (essentially quantity and price multiplier) effects of lost production in industries upstream and downstream in the supply-chain of sectors that are directly impacted by port cargo disruptions at Port of Los Angeles and Port of Long Beach (POLA/POLB), property damage along the coast, and evacuation of potentially inundated areas. These impacts are estimated to be $2.2 billion from port disruptions, $0.9 billion from property damages, and $2.8 billion from evacuations. Various economic-res...

Economy-wide impacts of biofuels in Argentina

Argentina is one of the world's largest biodiesel producers and the largest exporter, using soybeans as feedstock. Using a computable general equilibrium model that explicitly represents the biofuel industry, this study carries out several simulations on two sets of issues: (i) international markets for biofuel and feedstock, such as an increase in prices of soybean, soybean oil, and biodiesel, and (ii) domestic policies related to biofuels, such as an introduction of biofuel mandates. Both sets of issues can have important consequences to the Argentinean economy. The simulations indicate that increases in international prices of biofuels and feedstocks would increase Argentina's gross domestic product and social welfare. Increases in international prices of ethanol and corn also can benefit Argentina, but to a lesser extent. The domestic mandates for biofuels, however, would cause small losses in economic output and social welfare because they divert part of biodiesel and feedstock from exports to lower-return domestic consumption. An increase in the export tax on either feedstock or biodiesel also would lead to a reduction in gross domestic product and social welfare, although government revenue would rise.

Economic and Financial Crisis in Argentina: A Novel Risk Factor for Cardiovascular Mortality?

Background The relationship between the impact generated by diverse traumatic situations as wars, terrorist attacks and natural disasters with mortality in different regions of the world has been documented in clinical and experimental studies. A recent study showed that, in the absence of natural disasters or wars, financial crises might have a negative impact on cardiovascular mortality. The current experience suggests that financial crises could have a significant influence on health. Objectives To describe the trends in cardiovascular mortality rates (CVMR) in Argentina between 1995 and 2005, and to explore if there is a close temporal relationship with the changes in trends of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as indicator of economic and financial crisis. Material and Methods The annual CVMR per 100,000 persons was calculated using the information obtained from the database of the Ministry of Health (9th and 10th International Classification of Diseases). The following causes of death were considered: heart failure (HF), acute myocardial infarction (AMI), chronic coronary artery disease (CAD) and stroke (CVA). The population estimates used as the denominator were obtained from the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses. Two economic crises were identified: the Southeast Asia crisis (1998-1999) and the end of the convertibility system (2001-2002). Joinpoint models were used to evaluate changes in trends. Results GDP showed an increasing trend (slope = 17.18) from 1995 to 1998, which decreased in the period 1998-2002 (slope = ‑12.90) and increased from 2002 to 2005 (slope = 19.88); CVMR decreased by 24.72% (from 474.9 to 357.5 per 100,000). The joinpoint model identified three slopes in CVMR: from 1995 to 1997 (‑17.94), a descending slope until 2002 (‑6.8) and an increasing slope until 2005 (slope ‑16.73). Mortality rates due to HF, MI and CVA had a similar trend, decreasing by 22.95%, 16.89% and 38.06%, respectively. Conclusions The close temporal relationship between the relative increase in cardiovascular mortality and the reduction of GDP might consider economic and financial crises as a novel psychosocial risk factor.