Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, a significant rise in mental ill health has been observed globally in young people, particularly those in their final years of secondary school. Students' negative experiences coincide with a critical transitional period which can disrupt milestones in social and educational development. This study aimed to use innovative population-level data to map the impact of the pandemic on students entering higher education. Pre-pandemic (2019/2020) and pandemic (2020/2021) tertiary education application data were obtained from the Victorian Tertiary Admissions Centre. Prevalence of applications for special consideration related to mental ill health were compared between cohorts across various geographical areas and applicant demographic subgroups. Relative risk regression models were used to understand the role of different risk factors. Rates of mental health-related special consideration applications increased by 38% among all applications (pre-pandemic: 7.8%, n = 56 916; pandemic: 10.8%, n = 58 260). Highest increases were observed among students in areas with both extended and close-quarter lockdown experiences, and areas impacted by 2019/2020 black summer bushfires. The increases were higher among Year 12 students and students with other special consideration needs (e.g., physical condition, learning disability). Slightly higher increases were observed in areas with higher socio-economic status, which may potentially be related to inequality in mental health service access. As consequences of mental health difficulties and academic disruption in youth can be long lasting, it is critical to establish a mental health support framework both in and outside of higher education to facilitate young people's recovery from the pandemic.
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