Temperature Reconstructions Research Articles

A 903-year annual temperature reconstruction for the southeastern tibetan plateau from the tree ring widths of Juniperus saltuaria.

Precisely dated paleoclimatic records are essential for understanding natural and anthropogenic climate influences. Here, an annually resolved absolutely dated Juniperus saltuaria tree ring width chronology from the Haizi mountain, southeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) was developed. The chronology shows the annual- to decadal-scale paleoclimatic variability of the southeastern TP over the past 903years (1115-2017 CE). The tree ring widths correlate significantly with mean annual temperature (Tmean). A linear regression model between ring width and Tmean, accounting for 57% of the variance in temperature from 1959 to 2017 CE, was used to reconstruct the past 903years of Tmean variation in the southeastern TP. The chronology aligns with other temperature records from the TP, Asia, and the Northern Hemisphere (NH), indicating a marked temperature increase since the late twentieth century, with 1998-2017 CE identified as the warmest period. The coldest thirty years occurred in 1115-1145 CE. Solar activity and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation exert notable influences on temperature fluctuations in this region. Superposed epoch analysis indicates that volcanic eruptions had significantly impacted southeastern TP temperatures, causing dramatic cooling for 2-4years. Our study presents the longest width chronology developed by Juniperus saltuaria to date, offering a long-term perspective on recent climatic shifts across the southeastern TP. This work enhances understanding of historical climate variability, providing critical insights to refine projections of future climate variability.

Major Artifacts in ERA5 2‐m Air Temperature Trends Over Antarctica Prior to and During the Modern Satellite Era

AbstractGlobal reanalyzes are widely used for investigations of Antarctic climate variability and change. The European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts 5th generation reanalysis (ERA5) is well regarded and spans 1940 to today. We investigate whether ERA5 reliably represents the 2‐m air temperature trends across the 1940–2022 (83 years) period at seasonal and annual time scales. We compare ERA5 temperatures with an observation‐based temperature reconstruction for Antarctica (RECON) that has monthly resolution for 1958–2022, the period of reliable observational availability. Results for individual stations are also examined. ERA5 anomalously warms Antarctica in relation RECON especially for the period prior to 1979 when satellite observations over the Southern Ocean were sparse. Trend hotspots that are shown to be artifacts are found at three locations and are present until today. The results demonstrate that ERA5 temperature trends can be questionable even today, but variability is well captured after 1979.

No Evidence of Winter Warming in Eurasia Following Large, Low-Latitude Volcanic Eruptions during the Last Millennium

Abstract We critically reexamine the question of whether volcanic eruptions cause surface warming over Eurasia in winter, in the light of recent modeling studies that have suggested internal variability may overwhelm any forced volcanic response, even for the very largest eruptions during the Common Era. Focusing on the last millennium, we combine model output, instrumental observations, tree-ring records, and ice cores to build a new temperature reconstruction that specifically targets the boreal winter season. We focus on 20 eruptions over the last millennium with volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections (VSSIs) larger than the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. We find that only 7 of these 20 large events are followed by warm surface temperature anomalies over Eurasia in the first posteruption winter. Examining the 13 events that show cold posteruption anomalies, we find no correlation between the amplitude of winter cooling and VSSI mass. We also find no evidence that the North Atlantic Oscillation is correlated with VSSI in winter, a key element of the proposed mechanism through which large, low-latitude eruptions might cause winter warming over Eurasia. Furthermore, by inspecting individual eruptions rather than combining events into a superposed epoch analysis, we are able to reconcile our findings with those of previous studies. Analysis of two additional paleoclimatic datasets corroborates the lack of posteruption Eurasian winter warming. Our findings, covering the entire last millennium, confirm the findings of most recent modeling studies and offer important new evidence that large, low-latitude eruptions are not, in general, followed by significant surface wintertime warming over Eurasia.

Probing protoneutron stars with gamma-ray axionscopes

Axion-like particles (ALPs) coupled to nucleons can be efficiently produced in the interior of protoneutron stars (PNS) during supernova (SN) explosions. If these ALPs are also coupled to photons they can convert into gamma rays in the Galactic magnetic field. This SN-induced gamma-ray burst can be observable by gamma-ray telescopes like Fermi-LAT if the SN is in the field of view of the detector. We show that the observable gamma-ray spectrum is sensitive to the production processes in the SN core. In particular, if the nucleon-nucleon bremsstrahlung is the dominant axion production channel, one expects a thermal spectrum with average energy E a ≃ 50 MeV. In this case the gamma-ray spectrum observation allows for the reconstruction of the PNS temperature. In case of a sizable pion abundance in the SN core, one expects a second spectral component peaked at E a ≃ 200 MeV due to axion pionic processes. We demonstrate that, through a dedicated LAT analysis, we can detect the presence of this pionic contribution, showing that the detection of the spectral shape of the gamma-ray signal represents a unique probe of the pion abundance in the PNS.

Depth Prediction and Reconstruction of Reservoir Surface Temperature based on Multi-data Fusion

Depth Prediction and Reconstruction of Reservoir Surface Temperature based on Multi-data Fusion

Matrix Corrected SIMS In Situ Oxygen Isotope Analyses of Marine Shell Aragonite for High Resolution Seawater Temperature Reconstructions

AbstractMarine shells incorporate oxygen isotope signatures during growth, creating valuable records of seawater temperature and marine oxygen isotopic compositions. Secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) measures these compositions in situ at finer length‐scales than traditional stable isotope analyses. However, determining oxygen isotope ratios in aragonite, the most common shell mineral, is hampered by a lack of ideal reference materials, limiting the accuracy of SIMS‐based seawater temperature reconstructions. Here, we tested the capability of SIMS to produce seawater temperature reconstructions despite the matrix calibration challenges associated with aragonite. We cultured Anadara trapezia bivalves at four controlled seawater temperatures (13–28°C) and used strontium labeling to mark the start of the temperature‐controlled shell increment, allowing for more spatially precise SIMS analysis. An improved matrix calibration was developed to ensure more accurate bio‐aragonite analyses that addressed matrix differences between the pure abiotic reference materials and the bio‐aragonite samples with intricate mineral‐organic architectures and distinct minor and trace element compositions. We regressed SIMS‐IRMS biases of abiotic and biogenic aragonites that account for their systematic differences in major, minor, and trace elements, allowing for more accurate SIMS analyses of the temperature‐controlled shell increment. The thorough matrix calibration allowed us to provide a SIMS‐based seawater‐corrected oxygen isotope thermometer of T(°C) = 23.05 ± 0.36 − 4.48 · (δ18Oaragonite [‰ VPDB] − δ18Oseawater [‰ VSMOW] ± 0.25) and 103lnαaragonite‐seawater = (17.78 ± 0.88) · 103/T (K) − (29.44 ± 2.40) that agrees with existing aragonitic IRMS‐based thermometer relationships and improves the applicability of SIMS‐based paleo‐environmental reconstructions of marine bio‐aragonites.

Ammonites as paleothermometers: Isotopically reconstructed temperatures of the Western Interior Seaway track global records

Ammonites are externally shelled cephalopods that were common in the North American Western Interior Seaway (WIS), and as they grew their aragonitic shells via accretion, they recorded aspects of their environment in the stable isotopic composition of their shells. While the mobility of ammonites may complicate efforts to reconstruct temperatures from their shells, they remain a potentially valuable target for paleothermometry. In this study, we reconstruct the spatial and temporal variability of WIS temperatures using a suite of ammonites (n = 113) spanning the last 25 million years of the Cretaceous along a North-South gradient ranging from the Canadian WIS to the Mississippi Embayment. We present a temporally high-resolution (~0.6 Ma) oxygen isotope record from these ammonites that indicates cooling temperatures in the WIS of comparable magnitude (~18 °C +/− 4°) to the temperature change seen in global studies, most notably cooling from the Cretaceous Thermal Maximum in the Turonian until the late Maastrichtian. Studies disagree regarding the development and strength of a latitudinal (pole-to-equator) temperature gradient during the Cretaceous; we do not see strong evidence for a latitudinal temperature gradient in the WIS. We do not observe any bias driven by ammonite morphology in our isotopic data, though we suggest that researchers consider the effects of taxonomy and ecological bias on their temperature records. As our ammonite δ18O record matches the direction and magnitude of global temperature reconstructions, our data imply that ammonites are viable targets for paleothermometry.

Long-term Holocene warming trend in Southern China revealed by corrected pollen data

Holocene temperature changes and their forcings serve as pivotal references for current and future warming trends. However, significant discrepancies exist between proxy reconstructions and model simulations of Holocene temperature evolution. Pollen evidence, often central to these discrepancies, have been criticized for potentially reflecting human influence rather than pure temperature variations, complicating our understanding of Holocene temperature changes. Our study focuses on southern China, a region with pronounced discrepancies between models and proxies. We introduce and validate a novel methodology to isolate genuine temperature signals from pollen data. This approach employs an arboreal pollen-based temperature index and correct biases inherent in raw pollen data using the Regional Estimates of Vegetation Abundance from Large Sites (REVEALS) model. Applying this method, we present a new winter/annual temperature record for the past 10,000 years based on two fossil pollen data from the Luoxiao Mountains. Simultaneously, we reconstruct the historical impact of human activities in the region. Our temperature records reveal a sustained warming trend during the Holocene, closely matching model-simulated mean annual temperatures (R = 0.97), and temperature reconstructions based on branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers from regional terrestrial and marine archives. In contrast, uncorrected pollen data indicate a cooling trend during the late Holocene, coinciding with significant human impact since approximately 3 ka BP. Our analysis and regional comparison with existing temperature records indicate that such contrasting temperature trends stem from a human-induced cooling bias, particularly pronounced in uncorrected pollen data. We infer that the early to middle Holocene warming was due to various factors, while late Holocene warming was predominantly driven by local annual insolation changes. Our findings challenge previously widely identified late-Holocene cooling trends based on uncorrected pollen data, demonstrating that the correction of pollen data can effectively mitigate human-induced cooling biases in temperature reconstructions. This study confirms the accuracy of climate models in simulating a Holocene warming trend, both temporally and spatially, at least in southern China.

Fossil biocalcite remains open to isotopic exchange with seawater for tens of millions of years

Fossilized remains of marine calcifiers constitute the physical basis for reconstructions of both deep ocean and sea-surface temperatures going back millions of years, but paleoclimate records derived from their isotope and trace-element chemistry can be biased by diagenesis. Experiments simulating diagenesis in the presence of an 18O-rich seawater analogue were conducted with modern and 14 Myr old foraminifera (Ammonia sp.) tests to investigate their relative susceptibility to oxygen isotope exchange. The fossilized tests were of exceptional preservation and similar to modern tests in terms of structure and crystalline organization, but had experienced partial loss of embedded organic structures, thus a priori offering fewer preferential pathways for porewaters to penetrate the tests. NanoSIMS imaging revealed that oxygen isotope exchange was pervasive in fossil tests, with isotopic exchange occurring at approximately half the rate of modern tests. The results unequivocally show that fossil biocalcites are metastable and remain more susceptible to isotope exchange than abiotic calcites millions of years after sedimentation and burial.

Reconstruction of temperature and hydroclimate in Serling Co (Central Tibet) since the last deglaciation

Understanding the past climatic conditions and their possible driving mechanism can contribute to better constrain future climate projection, and to provide potential insights into the disputed Holocene temperature variations. In this study, we quantitatively reconstruct the mean annual air temperature (MAAT) of Serling Co since 17.3 cal kyr BP using a novel terrestrial thermometer (ring index of OH-GDGTs, RI-OH), and reconstructed the hydroclimatic evolutionary history in combination with n-alkanes and their associated proxies. Our temperature records indicate that Serling Co experienced a period of reduced temperatures during the Younger Dryas event, approximately 6 °C cooler than the present conditions. Subsequently, there was a rapid warming phase, leading to peak temperatures in the early Holocene, roughly 5.5 °C warmer than the modern MAAT, followed by a protracted cooling trend during the subsequent middle and late Holocene. The temperature and hydroclimate trends at Serling Co exhibit a synchronized evolutionary pattern since the last deglaciation, featuring an optimal hydrothermal combination in the early Holocene. This period witnessed the peak productivity of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, followed by a gradual decline. Summer insolation emerges as a primary controlling factor for temperature variations, with Indian Summer Monsoon intensity and internal climate system variability exerting dominance over atmospheric moisture and precipitation variations in the region.

Comparative clumped isotope temperature relationships in freshwater carbonates

AbstractLacustrine, riverine and spring carbonates represent archives of terrestrial climates and their geochemistry has been used to study palaeoenvironments. Clumped isotope thermometry is an emerging tool that has been applied to freshwater carbonates. Limited work has been done to evaluate comparative relationships between clumped isotopes and temperature in different types of modern freshwater carbonates. This study assembles an extensive calibration data set with 135 samples of modern freshwater carbonates from 96 sites and constrains the relationship between independent observations of water temperature and the clumped isotopic composition of carbonates (denoted by Δ47), including new measurements, and recalculates published data in accordance with current community‐defined standard values. For temperature reconstruction, the study reports a composite freshwater calibration and material‐specific calibrations for biogenic carbonates (freshwater gastropods and bivalves), fine‐grained carbonate (e.g. micrites), biologically mediated carbonates (microbialites and tufas) and travertines. Material‐specific calibration trends show a convergence of slopes that are in agreement with recently published syntheses, but statistically significant differences in intercepts occur between some materials (e.g. some biogenics, fine‐grained carbonates). These differences may arise due to unresolved seasonal biases, kinetic isotope effects and/or varying degrees of biological influence. The impact of different calibrations is shown through application to new data for glacial and deglacial age travertines from Austria and published data sets. While material‐specific calibrations may yield more accurate results for biogenic and fine‐grained carbonate samples, the use of material‐specific and the composite freshwater calibrations generally produces values within 1.0–1.5°C of each other, and typically fall within calibration uncertainty given limitations of precision.

Tree Rings Reveal ENSO in the Last Millennium

AbstractWe present new climate field reconstructions (CFR) of tropical Pacific ENSO sea surface temperatures (HadISST) for the boreal winter season using a circum‐Pacific tree‐ring network from known El Niño rainfall impact regions. We use two different CFR methods: Point‐by‐Point Regression (PPR) and reduced‐space Orthogonal Spatial Regression (OSR). Both methods produce reconstructions with high validation skill, but OSR is preferred because it has less spatial noise and is more efficient. Only the leading EOF of the SST field (EOF1) can be skillfully reconstructed by either method; EOF2 does not validate. The success of EOF1 reflects its importance for ENSO rainfall impacts over land; the failure with EOF2 is from the lack of these impacts. EOF1 allows for the reconstruction of many ENSO indices, including the ENSO Longitudinal Index (ELI). We also find evidence in our reconstructions for a recent increase in ENSO activity.

150-year daily data (1870–2021) in lakes and rivers reveals intensifying surface water warming and heatwaves in the Pannonian Ecoregion (Hungary)

Study regionPannonian Ecoregion, Hungary. Study focusBridging the gap between atmospheric influences and aquatic environments, this study embarked on a comprehensive reconstruction of daily surface water temperatures across lakes and rivers within the Pannonian Ecoregion over an extensive period of 150 years (1870–2021). New hydrological insights for the regionThe analysis revealed a clear warming trend in waters over the past 150 years, and majority of this warming occurred in recent three to four decades (average warming rate: 0.317 °C/decade). Seasonal patterns indicated that winter and spring exhibited faster warming rates, followed by autumn and summer. There has been a significant increase in the number, duration, and intensity of heatwaves in both lakes and rivers, particularly pronounced in the last 30–40 years, and with the rise of air temperatures, river and lake heatwaves tend to intensity. These findings underscore the escalating impact of climate change on freshwater systems in the Pannonian Ecoregion, emphasizing the urgent need for mitigation measures. As the first study on river and lake heatwaves in Hungary and one of the few studies on river heatwaves worldwide, this study will provide reference for analysing extreme thermal events in aquatic systems.

Multispectral two-dimensional temperature field reconstruction using particle swarm optimization and the Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno algorithm with multiple extreme value optimization

The flame temperature is a crucial parameter in combustion, indicating heat generation and transfer. However, determining the correct temperature becomes challenging when flame emissivity is unknown. This article presents a multispectral 2D temperature field reconstruction method using particle swarm optimization and the Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno algorithm, combined with multivariate extreme-value optimization. This method establishes an objective function based on the correlation between the true temperature and spectral data. The objective function was minimized by adjusting the emissivity, enabling the reconstruction of 2D temperature and emissivity images without assuming an emissivity model. Calibration with a multispectral camera yielded the spectral response coefficients, and three-time spline interpolation was used to verify the calibration data. The reconstructed 2D temperature field showed a mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.61 and structural similarity (SSIM) of 0.995. The reconstructed emissivity image had an MAE range of 0.04 to 0.053 and an SSIM range of 0.897 to 0.915. The system, tested on a butane flame, showed a temperature range of 1001 K to 1356 K, with an average temperature of 1194 K and emissivity values ranging from 0.3166 to 0.8621. The results align with the expected combustion process and radiation characteristics distribution of the butane flame.

C-type two-thermocouple sensor design between 1000 and 1700 °C.

At the present stage of transient ultra-high-temperature energy release of boron-containing warm-pressure explosives, single thermocouples are often used for multi-point measurements in the process of their temperature field changes, and the results of their temperature field reconstruction are not satisfactory due to the limited consistency of the thermocouples. Aiming at the above-mentioned problems, a C-type two-thermocouple suitable for transient temperature measurement in high-temperature environments is designed; the system characterization of the two-thermocouple is carried out by using the blind system identification method of the inter-relationships; the identification process is evaluated by a new cost function; and the optimal solution on the new cost function is realized by using the gradient descent method. The temperature reconstruction of the two-thermocouple output excited by the simulated heat source is carried out by using the auto-regressive with extra inputs model, and the feasibility of the reconstruction results is verified. In the experimental part, a thermocouple dynamic characteristic calibration system based on a high-temperature furnace is constructed and experimental validation is carried out in the high-temperature furnace to compare the effects of different exposure lengths and different wire diameters on the output of the two-thermocouple, and as a result, the outputs are corrected and analyzed. The results show that two-thermocouple methods with different combinations of wire diameters are better for temperature measurement, with a reconstructed root mean squared error of 0.0162 and a goodness of fit of 89.13%.

Highland forest dynamics across equatorial East Africa during the end of the African humid period

Tropical mountain ecosystems hold immense ecological and economic importance, yet they face disproportionate risks from shifting tropical climates. For example, present-day montane vegetation of East Africa is characterized by different plant species that grow in and are restricted to certain elevations due to environmental tolerances. As climate changes and temperature/rainfall zones move on mountains, these species must rapidly adjust their ranges or risk extinction.Paleoenvironmental records offer valuable insights into past climate and ecosystem dynamics, aiding predictions for ongoing climate change impacts. In particular, warming and wetting in tropical East Africa during the mid-Holocene resulted in both lowland and highland forest expansion. However, the relative impacts of rainfall and temperature change on montane ecosystems along with the influence of lowland forest expansion on montane communities is not completely understood. We use fossil pollen to study the vegetation changes in two lakes at different altitudes in the Rwenzori Mountains, Uganda: Lake Mahoma (Montane Forest belt) and Upper Kachope Lake (Afroalpine belt). Further, using the newly relaunched African Pollen Database and recent temperature reconstructions, we provide a regional synthesis of vegetation changes in the Rwenzori and then compare this with changes observed from other equatorial East African montane sites (particularly Mt Kenya).In the early to mid-Holocene in the Rwenzori Mountains, trees common today in lowland forests dominated, driven largely by warmer temperatures. After 4000 years ago (4ka), Afromontane forest trees along with grasses progressively replaced lowland trees. Not all sites experienced identical transitions. For instance, at Lake Rutundu on Mt Kenya at the same elevation as Lake Mahoma, bamboo expansion preceded Afromontane forest growth, likely influenced by variations in fire. Variance partitioning indicates that each site responded differently to changes in temperature and rainfall. Therefore, these site-specific ecological responses underscore the importance of considering biogeographic legacies as management strategies are developed, despite similarities in modern ecology.

Holocene temperatures follow CO2 in southeastern Alaska

Understanding the temperature evolution during the Holocene is crucial for future climate projections. However, a puzzling discrepancy between climate models simulating a warming trend during the second half of the Holocene parallel to the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and proxy data suggesting cooling during this period – known as the Holocene temperature conundrum – limits our understanding of how climate will evolve in the future. To solve this conundrum, the inclusion of quantitative paleotemperature records from high-latitude sites, which are extremely rare, is essential. Here, we use the hydrogen isotopic composition of fluid inclusions in speleothems from southeastern Alaska to create a quantitative temperature reconstruction of the entire Holocene. We show that the temperature in southeastern Alaska followed CO2, in agreement with modeling results. Because our data show no proxy-model bias, they support a seasonal proxy bias to account for the Holocene temperature conundrum.

A clumped isotope calibration of coccoliths at well-constrained culture temperatures for marine temperature reconstructions

A clumped isotope calibration of coccoliths at well-constrained culture temperatures for marine temperature reconstructions

Glacial–interglacial Circumpolar Deep Water temperatures during the last 800 000 years: estimates from a synthesis of bottom water temperature reconstructions

Glacial–interglacial Circumpolar Deep Water temperatures during the last 800 000 years: estimates from a synthesis of bottom water temperature reconstructions

Multi-proxy reconstruction of climate changes from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age in Southeast China

Exploring climate fluctuations across geological eras provides crucial historical context for addressing contemporary global climate challenges. This research leverages multi-proxies records analytical techniques, including pollen and charcoal analysis, X-ray fluorescence (XRF), and assessments of humification degree and loss on ignition (LOI), alongside paleoclimate simulations based on an alpine peat bog in Jiangxi Province, Southeast China. The study aims to provide a comprehensive review of vegetation evolution, climatic shifts, East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensity, and the potential drivers behind EASM behavior over the past two millennia. Our findings reveal a significant transition in precipitation and temperature patterns from the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, 960–1420 CE) to the Little Ice Age (LIA, 1420–1850 CE). A distinct pattern emerges, highlighting particularly wet periods occurring between 960–1050 CE, 1190–1250 CE, and 1350–1400 CE, as well as significant droughts during 1430–1550 CE, 1590–1650 CE, 1680–1720 CE, and 1750–1800 CE. When compared to our temperature reconstruction series and precipitation data, a clear correlation emerges—wet phases align with warmer period characteristic of the MCA. Based on our simulation results, we suggest that ENSO oscillations and the Indo-Pacific warm pool played a substantial role in driving climate dynamics from the MCA to the LIA.