Reconstructed Temperature Series Research Articles

A 219‐year reconstruction of April–June mean minimum temperature from the tree‐ring earlywood density on the Changbai Mountains, China

AbstractUsing mean earlywood density data from Pinus koraiensis cores, we reconstructed the April–June mean minimum temperature from 1797 to 2015 for the Changbai Mountains. The reconstruction explained 52.6% of the actual mean minimum temperature variance during 1901–2015. After smoothing with an 11‐year moving average, we identified three major cold periods (1797–1875, 1881–1899, and 1903–1946) and three major warm periods (1876–1880, 1900–1902, and 1947–2015) in the reconstructed series. Spatial correlation showed that the reconstruction contained climatic signals for a large area including most of northeast China, especially the Bohai Rim region and the eastern side of the Mongolian Plateau. A comparison between the newly reconstructed temperature series for the surrounding areas reveals similar variations, particularly in the warming trend during the second half of the 20th century. The driving factors of the mean minimum temperature were influenced mainly by the interaction of solar activity and large‐scale atmospheric‐oceanic variability. The reconstructed series provides a basis for understanding past climate change in the Changbai Mountains and for predicting future climate change trends in Northeast China.

The Radial Growth of Juniperus squamata Showed Sharp Increase in Response to Climate Warming on the Three-River Headwaters Region of Tibetan Plateau since the Early 21st Century

In order to explore the impact of climate change on the ecosystem at high altitudes, dendroclimatology was used to study the response of radial growth of Juniperus squamata Buch.-Ham. ex D.Don to the rapid warming in Nangqian County over the past 60 years, and a tree-ring width chronology for 115 years was established. (1) Meteorological data showed that the temperature in Nangqian County of the Tibetan Plateau has increased continuously during the past 60 years, and the minimum temperature has had the most significant change (0.63 °C/10a), especially between 2000–2019 (0.12 °C/a). Over the same time period precipitation has not changed significantly (0.94 mm/a, p > 0.10). The standard chronology was used to reconstruct the mean temperature series from July to September in Nangqian meteorological station during the past 115 years (1905–2019). The explained variance of the reconstructed equation was 42.8% (40.8%, after adjusting for degrees of freedom). The reconstructed temperature series can be roughly divided into two stages: from 1905 to 1999, the temperature fluctuated around the average value, 12.10 °C, and from 2000 to 2019, the temperature showed a significant upward trend. (2) The analysis of the climate-tree growth relationship indicated that the response of radial growth of Juniperus squamata to temperature was significantly stronger than the response to precipitation; especially in the last 20 years, when the radial growth of Juniperus squamata was positively correlated with temperature (p < 0.01). Compared to the maximum temperature and mean temperature, the correlation between radial growth of Juniperus squamata and minimum temperature was more significant. (3) Under the background of climate warming, the radial growth trend of Juniperus squamata in Nangqian county was consistent with temperature changes. Particularly in the past 20 years, the radial growth of Juniperus squamata showed a significantly increased trend and entered a rapid growth period.

Reconstructing mean temperature of April-July in 1809-2018 based on tree-ring of Pinus taiwanensis in the Tianmu Mountain, East China

We established 340-year chronologies of total ring width, early wood width, and late wood width with tree-ring samples of Pinus taiwanensis at high altitude collected from the western Tianmu Mountain in northern Zhejiang Province. According to the criterion that subsample signal strength (SSS) should be larger than 0.8, the reliable period was from 1810 to 2019. Through the correlation analysis between chronologies and climatic factors, we examined the responses of tree ring growth to climate. The results showed that radial growth of P. taiwanensis was more sensitive to temperature than to precipitation. Comprehensively considering the correlation analysis results for the raw and first-order difference series, early wood width was significantly correlated with the early growing season mean and maximum temperatures of the prior year, while late wood width with prior May and current September mean and maximum temperatures. The correlation pattern of total ring width was similar to that of early wood width, although at a low level. The optimal correlation was between early wood width and prior April-July mean temperature. Based on this relationship, April-July mean temperature of the Tianmu Mountain, East China was reconstructed for the period of 1809-2018 with an explained variance of 61.5%. Both the raw and first-order difference series passed the split sample calibration-verification test. The warm periods were 1809-1833 and 1965-2018, with a cold period in 1834-1964. Temperature had risen rapidly since the 1960s. From the standpoint of low frequency, it reached an unprecedented level since the 1980s over the past 210 years. Spatial correlation analysis showed that the reconstructed temperature series could represent temperature variations of East China, which had a good agreement with a reconstructed regional temperature series from East China. Our results showed that P. taiwanensis had a great potential for paleoclimate reconstruction in East China.

Reconstructed temperature change in late summer over the eastern Tibetan Plateau since 1867 CE and the role of anthropogenic forcing

Anthropogenic influence on the temperature change in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) since the 19th century has been rarely studied. Here we investigate the temperature change in late summer (August–September) over the eastern TP since 1867 based on a new tree-ring reconstruction. Human influence on the temperature change is explored using an optimal fingerprinting method and the model experiments from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6). We find that there is a long-term warming trend since 1867 in the eastern TP based on the temperature reconstruction of a new tree-ring mean latewood density chronology. The reconstructed temperature explains 54.8% of the variance in observed August–September mean temperature during the calibration period 1961–2009, and shows decadal to inter-decadal variation. Compared with other reconstructed temperature series and observed gridded data, the temperature reconstruction shows similar increasing trend with most of temperature series. The new generation of climate models, including CMIP5 and CMIP6, are able to reproduce the long-term warming of the temperature, indicating a good performance of the climate models in simulating the temperature change in the eastern TP since the mid-19th century. The attribution analysis about the role of anthropogenic forcing shows that the signal of human influence can be clearly found in the long-term temperature change in the region. Anthropogenic signal can be detected in both the single- and two-signal analyses in all the investigated time periods, while the influence from natural forcing appears negligible. • There is a clear warming in late summer over the eastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) since 1867 based on a tree-ring reconstruction. • Both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models are able to reproduce long-term warming in the eastern TP since the mid-19th century. • Anthropogenic signal is the main driver for long-term temperature change in the eastern TP.

Maximum July–September temperatures derived from tree‐ring densities on the western Loess Plateau, China

AbstractTree‐ring densitometric studies conducted in semi‐arid regions are exceedingly rare. In this study, we evaluate a new maximum latewood density chronology from a collection of Picea purpurea trees growing in semi‐arid northwestern China for climatic reconstruction purposes. We find statistically significant correlations between annual maximum density variations and July–September maximum temperatures over the 1957–2014 calibration period. Using a linear model to transfer the density variations to temperature estimates, we then reconstruct maximum summer temperatures from 1840 to 2014. Statistical analyses and verification tests demonstrate that the resulting transfer function is both reliable and stable. The reconstructed temperature series shows strong inter‐annual and decadal variability. Several extremely cool and warm years are apparent on an inter‐annual scale, while three extended cool periods and a warm period are observed on a decadal scale. In addition, the reconstructed temperature series exhibits a pattern synchronous with that of the Indian monsoon index, as well as a moderate relationship to volcanic eruptions. This densitometric study reveals typical climatic variation characteristics and provides useful data for deepening our understanding of climate history in the semi‐arid regions of China.

Tree ring–based minimum temperature reconstruction in the central Hengduan Mountains, China

We developed a tree ring-width chronology of Abies georgei at the timber line in the Big Snow Mountain Scenic Area in northwestern Yunnan, China. The climate-tree growth response analysis indicated that temperature was the predominant regulator of A. georgei growth in this region. An annual mean minimum temperature (AMMT) reconstruction spanning A.D. 1837–2016 was developed with a linear regression model (y = 1.0x − 6e − 5) that accounted for 50.7% of the actual temperature variance during the common period (1960–2016). Based on the reconstructed temperature series, the warmer periods were 1840–1845, 1855–1865, 1880–1895, 1945–1965, and from 1995 until the present day, and the cold periods were 1870–1880, 1900–1930, and 1966–1980. By comparing our results with other regional tree ring records from surrounding areas, a distinctive amount of common warm and cold periods were found, indicating the reliability of our temperature reconstruction and suggesting that the climate in the study area was part of a large-scale climate system.

Reconstruction of June–July Temperatures Based on a 233 Year Tree-Ring of Picea jezoensis var. microsperma

In this study, ring-width chronology of Picea jezoensis var. microsperma from the Changbai Mountain (CBM) area, Northeast China, was constructed. Growth/climate responses suggested that mean maximum temperature (Tmax) was the limiting factor affecting radial growth of PJ trees in the study region. According to the correlation analysis between the ring-width index and meteorological data, a June–July mean maximum temperature (Tmax6–7) series between 1772 and 2004 was reconstructed by using the standard chronology. For the calibration period (1959–2004), the explained variance of the reconstruction was 41.6%. During the last 233 years, there were 36 warm years and 34 cold years, accounting for 15.5% and 14.7% of the total reconstruction years, respectively. Cold periods occurred in 1899–1913, 1955–1970, and 1975–1989, while warm periods occurred in 1881–1888. The reconstructed temperature series corresponded to the historical disaster records of extreme climatic events (e.g., drought and flood disasters) in this area. Comparisons with other temperature reconstructions from surrounding areas and spatial correlation analysis between the gridded temperature data and reconstruction series indicated that the regional climatic variations were well captured by the reconstruction. In addition, multi-taper method spectral analysis indicated the existence of significant periodicities in the reconstructed series. The significant spatial correlations between the reconstructed temperature series and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), solar activity, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) suggested that the temperature in the CBM area indicated both local-regional climate signals and global-scale climate changes.

Tree-ring reconstruction of late summer temperatures in northern Sikkim (eastern Himalayas)

The Sikkim region of the Himalayas is among one of the most highly sensitive hotspots to climate change due to its fragile mountainous environment and rapidly growing population, which exert significant impacts on regional ecosystem factors, including biodiversity and hydrology. Limited observational data coverage in space and time for the high-altitude mountainous region impedes our understanding of climate change and its impact on the environment. In this paper, we develop a 437-year tree-ring width index chronology of Tsuga dumosa (D.Don) Eichler in northern Sikkim as a climate proxy. The substantial dendroclimatic potential of this proxy is evidenced in various statistics computed from the tree-ring chronology. An analysis of the tree-ring chronology indicates a strong negative relationship between late-summer mean temperatures (July–August–September; JAS) and tree growth. This relationship enables us to reconstruct the JAS mean temperature over northern Sikkim since 1705 C.E. The 304-year (1705–2008 C.E.) reconstructed temperature series shows similar warm and cool epochs, which have been observed in many other temperature reconstructions in the region and other proxy records of glacial fluctuations. An overall steady decreasing trend in the regional surface temperature is observed since 1705 C.E., while an increasing trend with intermittent, short and cool epochs are noticed from 1850 C.E. to the present. Prior to the observational period (before 1901 C.E.), cold conditions (X̄ - 1σ) prevailed during 1816–1819, 1831–1837, 1856–1859, and 1884–1887 C.E, with extremely cold conditions (X̄ - 2σ) occurring in 1816, 1817, 1832, 1833, 1857, 1877, 1884, and 1885 C.E; Warm conditions (X̄ + 1σ) prevailed during 1713–1735 and 1823–1827 C.E, with extremely warm (X̄ + 2σ) conditions occurring in 1724, 1823, 1824, and 1825 C.E. Global teleconnections of the reconstructed temperature variations indicate the important roles of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and volcanic eruptions as drivers of temperature variations in the Sikkim region of the Himalayas.

Temperature variability inferred from tree-ring records in Weichang region, China, and its teleconnection with large-scale climate forcing

Based on the combination of two dendrochronologies, the annual mean temperature from May to June for the last 160 years was reconstructed in Weichang region, China, with the predictor variables accounting 43.3% of the variance during the calibration period of 1956–2012. Warm periods with temperature levels great than the mean (17.66 °C) occurred in 1853–1881, 1886–1891, 1904–1909, 1923–1930, 1964–1970, 1980–1988, 1998–2002 and 2007–2011; and cold periods with temperature levels less than the mean occurred in 1882–1885, 1892–1898, 1901–1903, 1910–1922, 1931–1963, 1971–1979, 1989–1997 and 2003–2006. The reconstruction showed that droughts usually occurred in the warm years. And the reconstructed temperature series showed an almost reverse trend to the total precipitation of previous August to present July from Chifeng–Weichang on inter-decadal scale, which indicate the basic feature of climate was warm-dry and cold-wet in Weichang region. The reconstructed temperature series showed a linear increasing trend with a rise 0.11 °C from 1880 to 2012. Comparisons with other temperature series revealed a consistently warming trend after the mid-1950s and confirmed a good repeatability and high reliability in our reconstruction. Spatial correlation implied the reconstruction could represent a regional temperature signal in the large parts of northern China and Central-Eastern Mongolia. The multi-taper method reveals several significant periodicities in our reconstruction over the past 160 years, suggesting possible linkages with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, lunar gravity, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and solar activity. Correlation analysis between the reconstruction and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), lunar geocentric declination, PDO and sunspot number further demonstrates that the temperature variations in Weichang region are negatively correlated with SOI and positively correlated with lunar gravity, PDO and solar activity in the long term.

Comparison of instrumental and interpolated meteorological data-based summer temperature reconstructions on Mt. Taibai in the Qinling Mountains, northwestern China

Previous dendroclimatical studies have been based on the relationship between tree growth and instrumental climate data recorded at lower land meteorological stations, but the climate conditions somehow differ between sampling sites and distant population centers. Thus, in this study, we performed a comparison between the 152-year reconstruction of June to July mean air temperature on the basis of interpolated meteorological data and instrumental meteorological data. The reconstruction explained 38.7% of the variance in the interpolated temperature data (37.2% after the degrees of freedom were adjusted) and 39.6% of the variance in the instrumental temperature data (38.4% after adjustment for loss of degrees of freedom) during the period 1962–2013 AD. The first global warming (the 1920s) and recent warming (1990–2013) found from the reconstructed temperature series match reasonably well with two other reported summer temperature reconstructions from north-central China. Cold periods occurred three times during 1866–1885, 1901–1921, and 1981–2000, while hot periods occurred four times during 1886–1900, 1922–1933, 1953–1966, and 2001–2007. The extreme warm (cold) years are coherent with the documentary drought (flood) events. Significant 31–22-year, 22–18-year, and 12–8-year cycles indicate major fluctuations in regional temperatures may reflect large-scale climatic shifts.

An 810‐year history of cold season temperature variability for northern Poland

Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) is a widely used tree species in European dendroclimatology studies due to its common distribution across much of the continent. Almost all studies find radial growth strongly related to summer temperature, a result reflecting site selection at high elevation/latitude environments where trees grow at their ecophysiological limits. Due to the amount of attention spent on these sites there is a geographical and seasonal bias in temperature reconstructions based upon tree‐ring proxies in Europe. To overcome the limited availability of tree‐ring data in temperate lowlands, we present a northern Poland ring‐width chronology developed from living and historic Scots pine material with a strong common growth signal going back to AD 1200. Investigations into climate‐growth relationships found year‐to‐year ring‐width variability to be more strongly correlated to cold season temperature (November to April) prior to the growing season than summer temperatures during tree‐ring formation. Based on this relationship it was possible to reconstruct cold season temperature conditions for the last 810 years. Spatial field correlations with gridded instrumental records indicated that the reconstruction provides relevant cold season temperature information across the land regions bordering the North Atlantic Ocean and Baltic Sea, lowlands and uplands of western and central Europe, and the eastern and central interior of Russia. Despite an unsuccessful attempt to find a stationary relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation, comparisons with several cold season temperature reconstructions confirmed the long‐term connection between our reconstructed temperature series for northern Poland and the wider area.

Temperature reconstruction and volcanic eruption signal from tree-ring width and maximum latewood density over the past 304 years in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau

This study presents a 304-year mean July-October maximum temperature reconstruction for the southeastern Tibetan Plateau based on both tree-ring width and maximum latewood density data. The reconstruction explained 58% of the variance in July-October maximum temperature during the calibration period (1958-2005). On the decadal scale, we identified two prominent cold periods during AD 1801-1833 and 1961-2003 and two prominent warm periods during AD 1730-1800 and 1928-1960, which are consistent with other reconstructions from the nearby region. Based on the reconstructed temperature series and volcanic eruption chronology, we found that most extreme cold years were in good agreement with major volcanic eruptions, such as 1816 after the Tambora eruption in 1815. Also, clusters of volcanic eruptions probably made the 1810s the coldest decade in the past 300years. Our results indicated that fingerprints of major volcanic eruptions can be found in the reconstructed temperature records, while the responses of regional climate to these eruption events varied in space and time in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau.

Two centuries of April-July temperature change in southeastern China and its influence on grain productivity

China is a traditional agriculture based country and one main region for crop production is southeastern China where temperature is a dominant climate variable affecting agriculture. Temperature and social disturbances both influence crop production, yet distinguishing their relative impacts is difficult due to a lack of reliable, high-resolution historical climatic records before the very recent period. Here we present the first tree-ring based warm-season temperature reconstruction for southeastern China, a core region of the East Asian monsoon, for the past 227years. The reconstruction target was April-July mean temperature, and our model explained 60.6% of the observed temperature variance during 1953–2012. Spatial correlation analysis showed that the reconstruction is representative of April-July temperature change over most of eastern China. The reconstructed temperature series agrees well with China-scale (heavily weighted in eastern China) agricultural production index values quite well at decadal timescales. The impacts of social upheavals on food production, such as those in the period 1920–1949, were confirmed after climatic influences were excluded. Our study should help distinguish the influence of social disturbance and warm-season temperature on grain productivity in the core agricultural region of China during the past two centuries.

MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF ICE FLOW IN QUEEN MAUD LAND, ANTARCTICA, AND ITS APPLICATION TO THE LATE QUATERNARY CLIMATIC PALEORECONSTRUCTION

One of the main sources of our knowledge about past air temperature variations is the isotopic composition of the ice cores obtained during deep drilling of the ice sheets. During 2001–2006 deep drilling was carried out at Kohnen station in Dronning Maud Land, Antarcticawithin the frameworks of the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA). As a result, an ice core of 2774 mlength was obtained. Variations of air temperature are linearly dependent on isotopic composition of an ice core, but the reconstructed temperature series contains besides the climatic signal, a topographic bias. Appearance of this bias is explained by the upstream advection from the elevated sites where the ice particles were originally deposited, and by the local vertical movements of the surface of the ice sheet through time. In order to calculate this non-climatic (topographic) bias in the isotopic and reconstructed air temperature record, we applied a methodology based on mathematical ice-flow modeling. In the lower part of the ice sheet ice chronology and non-climatic biases are strongly affected by unknown value of the geothermal heat flux ( G ). Melt water, which was found close to the bedrock suggests that that assumed G = 54.6 mWm -2 (the average value for Antarctica) was very likely underestimated in the surroundings of Kohnen. In order to estimate the range of possible values of ice age and of non-climatic bias in the lower part of the core we carried out a series of numerical experiment with G increased by 5–30%.

Reconstruction of surface air temperature in a glaciated region in the western Qilian Mountains, Tibetan Plateau, 1957–2013 and its variation characteristics

Based on the meteorological observations at three sites (4180 m, 4550 m and 5040 m a.s.l.) in Laohugou and the surrounding 7 national meteorological stations, the long-term surface air temperature of the glaciated region in the Qilian Mountains, northeastern Tibetan Plateau during 1957–2013 was reconstructed. The in-situ air temperature observed at 4180 m during 1959–1961 was used to verify the reconstructed temperature series. Several approaches of multiple regressions were applied to select the optimal method in estimating the daily air temperature, including the ordinary least square regression (OLSR), stepwise regression (SR), principal component regression (PCR) and partial least squares regression (PLSR), respectively. According to root mean square error, mean bias error, and correlation coefficient, OLSR is selected as the optimal approach in the study region. The reconstructed daily temperature correlates well with the synchronous observations, and correlation coefficients are higher than 0.96 (p < 0.01) on an annual basis. All the three sites in the study region have experienced a warming trend, and annual mean temperature has increased by 0.31 C°, 0.35 C° and 0.37 C° per decade at 4180 m, 4550 m and 5040 m (p < 0.01), respectively. The higher elevations usually have larger trend magnitudes, compared with the lower sites. The positive degree day (PDD, the sum of daily mean temperatures above ice point) has significantly increased by 27.8 C°, 12.8 C°, and 3.2 C° per decade at 4180 m, 4550 m and 5040 m, respectively, which also indicates the continuing shrinkage of glaciers for the study region.

Unprecedented January–July warming recorded in a 178-year tree-ring width chronology in the Dabie Mountains, southeastern China

Previous tree-ring studies indicate that tree growth at high elevations is strongly limited by temperatures in the southeastern China, where the climate is dominated by the East Asian monsoon. Based on this result, we built a highly replicated 202-year tree-ring width chronology from high elevation sites in the Dabie Mountains, southeastern China. The most reliable period of the chronology is from 1834 to 2011 according to a subsample signal strength cutoff of 0.85. Based on this chronology, January–July minimum temperature was reconstructed for the last 178years, with an explained variance of 57.6% during the instrumental period 1956–2010. The reconstructed temperature series matches reasonably well with three other tree-ring based temperature reconstructions at decadal time scales in the region. The coldest periods are 1891–1898 and 1904–1914, however, the longest cold period is from 1948 to 1973. The warmest period is 1990–2010. Both the recent (1990–2010) warming and recent (1948–2010) temperature increase rates are unprecedented compared with any same long period during the past 178years in the study region.

Droughts and broad-scale climate variability reflected by temperature-sensitive tree growth in the Qinling Mountains, central China

The relationship between temperature and drought was investigated using the temperature-sensitive growth of Larix chinensis Beissn in the Qinling Mountains, central China. Extremely high tree-ring width index values (TRWI) agreed well with dry conditions defined by the dryness-wetness index (DWI) obtained from data in Chinese historical documents and climate-related papers between 1814 and 1956 (before the short of instrumental measurements); the reverse applied to extremely low TRWI values. The main severe drought epochs occurred from the late 1850s to the 1870s, the 1920s to 1930s and in the 2000s, whereas wet spells occurred from 1817-1827 and 1881-1886. The droughts in the 2000s exhibited a similar pattern as the ones from the 1920s to 1930s, with obviously an increasing temperature. The variation of tree growth agreed well with other reconstructed temperature series from nearby and remote regions, suggesting that Larix chinensis could respond to broad-scale climate variability. The longest cold interval, 1817-1827, could be associated with the influence of the Tambora eruption in 1815.

Long-term variation of temperature over North China and its links with large-scale atmospheric circulation

A May–July temperature reconstruction is based on tree-ring widths of Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis) from Ningwu, Shanxi Province, China. The reconstruction explains 45.1% of the variance in observed May–July temperature. The intervals with persistent decadal warmth include 1779–1792, 1827–1839, 1853–1865, 1898–1932, 1936–1948 and 1987–2003. Intervals with persistent decadal cold include 1793–1807, 1814–1826, 1866–1888, 1949–1963 and 1976–1986. Spatial correlation between the reconstruction and the gridded temperature datasets reveals that the reconstruction is representative of temperature variability in semi-arid/arid regions of East Asia, including the Gobi Desert, the Loess Plateau and the North China Plain. The regions are referred to as North China in this study. Significant correlation with the January–August temperature reconstruction in the Helan Mountains of Northwest China for the overlapping period of 1796–1999 suggests that the reconstruction captures the regional temperature variability for a long-term period. The reconstructed temperature series has a significantly negative correlation with the monsoon rainfall series at inter-annual, decadal and multi-decadal time scales for the overlapping period of 1688–2003, suggesting an influence of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and the dominant climate regime consisting of either cool/wet or warm/dry weather in the North China. Moreover, for the past three centuries, synchronous variations are found for the reconstructed temperature as well as the reconstructed Asian-Pacific Oscillation (APO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) at decadal and multi-decadal time scales, suggesting the influences of large-scale atmospheric circulations on temperature variability in the North China. The possible mechanisms behind these links are also explained with observed climate data.

How Predictable are Temperature-series Undergoing Noise-controlled Dynamics in the Mediterranean

Mediterranean is thought to be sensitive to global climate change, but its future interdecadal variability is uncertain for many climate models. A study was made of the variability of the winter temperature over the Mediterranean Sub-regional Area (MSA), employing a reconstructed temperature series covering the period 1698 to 2010. This paper describes the transformed winter temperature data performed via Empirical Mode Decomposition for the purposes of noise reduction and statistical modeling. This emerging approach is discussed to account for the internal dependence structure of natural climate variability.

How Predictable are Temperature-series Undergoing Noise-controlled Dynamics in the Mediterranean

AbstractMediterranean is thought to be sensitive to global climate change, but its future interdecadal variability is uncertain for many climate models. A study was made of the variability of the winter temperature over the Mediterranean Sub-regional Area (MSA), employing a reconstructed temperature series covering the period 1698 to 2010. This paper describes the transformed winter temperature data performed via Empirical Mode Decomposition for the purposes of noise reduction and statistical modeling. This emerging approach is discussed to account for the internal dependence structure of natural climate variability.