Recent Significant Events Research Articles

Research On The Daily Electricity Forecast Model Based On LightGBM

Short-term electricity demand forecast is of great significance for guiding the Power Grid Company production operation, but the existing forecast mainly concentrated on load forecast, and most of them only use meteorological and date factors as input features, ignoring the economic factors as a basis to support the growth of electricity, also doesn’t take into account the influence of recent significant events. To improve the accuracy and rationality of short-term electricity demand forecast, based on the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) model, in addition to the common meteorological and date factors, all kinds of economic and significant events are introduced into the model to forecast the daily electricity in this paper. The results show that economic and significant events provide useful information, making our model more accurate than previous short-term electricity demand forecasts. Moreover, due to the adoption of machine learning algorithms, our model is more stable and accurate than traditional measurement models with the same factors.

Vaccine dilemma for children at risk: Recently approved malaria vaccine versus ongoing COVID-19 vaccination campaign

Recently, the World Health Organization (WHO) approved RTS, S/AS01 (RTS, S) as the world's first malaria vaccine for partial malaria protection in young children at risk. While this immunization drive begins during the unprecedented pandemic of the SARS-CoV-2 Virus, the WHO has also approved 7 Vaccines in 2021 for the vaccination of children at risk. This article explores the quandary that would occur to the officials in charge of carrying out large vaccination campaigns against these two deadly infectious illnesses in several regions including the continent of Africa. The article also outlines the priorities for resolving this dilemma, offers evidence-based solutions, and provides a summary of recent significant events and their consequences. While providing the latest data, a discussion on the causation of the dilemma with clear recommendations for possible solutions has been explored as well.

Career adaptability and employee well-being over a two-year period: Investigating cross-lagged effects and their boundary conditions

The present study investigates the role of career adaptability in employee well-being within a period of two years. In addition, it aims to shed light on the boundary conditions that potentially determine the use of adaptability resources and thereby may moderate the relationship between career adaptability and work and life outcomes. The study was based on a representative sample of a Swiss working population from the French- and German-speaking parts of Switzerland. A total of 1007 employed adults participated in the survey two years apart. Cross-lagged structural equation modeling analyses demonstrated a positive cross-lagged effect from career adaptability to job and life satisfaction. Conversely, a negative effect was observed with regard to perceived stress in life. In addition, our findings suggest that certain conditions (such as perceived limitation in career prospects and recent experience of significant work-related events) may strengthen some of the cross-lagged relationships between career adaptability and its positive outcomes. The present study contributes to the career construction literature in two ways. First, it tests a comprehensive cross-lagged model to inspect the longer-term effects of career adaptability on work-related and general well-being, thereby suggesting that career adaptability may have a role in longer-term adaptation due to its contribution to the maintenance of well-being levels. Second, we respond to a call for action regarding the boundary conditions under which career adaptability differentially predicts work and life outcomes (Rudolph, Lavigne, & Zacher, 2017). By identifying recent significant events and perceived career prospects as moderators, we begin to expose some of the complexities of career adaptability and career construction.

Two Hundred Years Ago theDissertatio de terrae motu Mórensiand the First Isoseismal Map Appeared

Two hundred years ago, in 1814, according to the order of the Royal Governor Council, two eminent professors of the Royal University of Pest, Pal Kitaibel and Adam Tomcsanyi, published a 120‐page book written in Latin on the M 5.4 earthquake that occurred in the vicinity of Mor, Hungary on 14 January 1810. This book (short title: Dissertatio de terrae motu Morensi ) also includes a 66 cm×47.5 cm map, the first isoseismal map in the history of seismology (Kitaibel and Tomcsanyi, 1814). This seismic event was not large in terms of magnitude. About 500 such earthquakes occur worldwide annually, and there have been significantly greater earthquakes in Hungary. Even so, this earthquake caused a relatively large amount of damage, and it was felt in remote locations as far away as Sopron, Vienna, and Prague. The earthquake was associated with the Mor graben (Weber and Sule, 2014), which has an axis connecting the cities of Szekesfehervar and Komarom and separates the mountain ranges of Bakony and Vertes. This geological structure shows moderate seismicity, and its most recent significant event took place in Oroszlany (29 January 2011, M 4.5) (Fig. 1) (Kiszely and Győri, 2015). Figure 1. Seismicity of Mor graben. The events of Mor (1810 M 5.4) and Oroszlany (2011 M 4.5) are marked with white stars. Since the middle of the eighteenth century, the most important European earthquakes were followed by governmental damage assessments that stimulated scientific research for understanding the nature of earthquakes. Perhaps the first such centrally organized survey of an earthquake took place in connection with the 1755 Lisbon earthquake (M 8.5–9.0, Gutscher et al. , 2006), which affected an area of ∼800,000 km2 with a death toll of some 100,000 people (Chester, 2001). Similar damage assessment was initiated by Queen Maria Theresa in 1763 in Hungary after the earthquake that struck Komarom (M 6.4). …

Volatility spillovers in the European bank CDS market

From the 2007 subprime crisis to the recent Eurozone debt crisis, the banking industry has experienced terrible financial instability with increasing volatility levels of bank default probability. Using European CDS spreads data from January 2006 to March 2013, this paper sheds light on the impact of three recent significant events of credit risk volatility transmission between, firstly, Eurozone and non-Eurozone banks, and then between distressed peripheral and core countries inside the Eurozone. We employ an asymmetric multivariate BEKK model to measure cross-market volatility spillovers. We find that both recent crises are distinct episodes. The global financial crisis that originated outside Europe is characterized by unidirectional volatility spillovers in credit risk from inside to outside the Eurozone. By contrast, the Eurozone debt crisis is revealed to be local in nature with the euro as the key element, suggesting a financial market fragmentation within the Eurozone between distressed peripheral and non-distressed core Eurozone countries, whereas retaining the local currency has acted as a firewall.

Comparison of dust source identification techniques over land in the Middle East region using MODIS data

This paper compares and evaluates four principal methods of dust source and plume identification using MODIS data. The four MODIS methods used here are: (i) Roskovensky and Liou's dust identification algorithm, (ii) Ackerman's model, (iii) Normalized Difference Dust Index (NDDI), and (iv) Deep Blue algorithm. These techniques were applied to three recent significant events in the Middle East region. In addition, true color images and the HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model were used to evaluate the result of each technique. To optimize the result of dust detection for each technique, the published dust–nondust thresholds had to be considerably adjusted on an event-by-event basis. Results show that techniques that use brightness temperature (BT) difference are the most reliable techniques for dust source detection in several situations such as multiplume and multimineralogical conditions (unlike the NDDI index and other optical based algorithms). However, these techniques cannot effectively differentiate dust plume from the bright desert surfaces (due to the same thermal behavior of dust and desert surfaces in both BT31 and BT32). This weakness impelled us to develop a new model based on Ackerman's technique because of its more precise results in dust source identification. In this new presented model called Middle East Dust Index (MEDI), BT29 was involved to highlight the difference between dust and desert surfaces as the [(BT31–BT29)/(BT32–BT29)] equation. In this equation, the values of dusty pixels are less than 0.6 while nondusty pixels are greater than 0.6. Results indicate that the MEDI model is ideal in both identifying dust plume and sources and desert surfaces. Finally, due to some misclassification of the MEDI model in differentiating cirrus clouds from dust plumes, the NDDI index was added to the initial model to distinguish them more accurately.

Significant event analysis: a comparative study of knowledge, process and attitudes in primary care

Significant event analysis (SEA) is now well established in UK primary care. Previously, considerable variation has been reported in the knowledge, skills and attitudes of general practitioners undertaking SEA. Little is known about the wider team's understanding, participation or perceptions. We therefore aimed to determine the awareness, degree of analysis and perceived risk of recurrence of a recent significant event, types of discussion forums, staff groups' participation and perceived barriers. Comparisons were made with a 2003 survey and significant changes described. A postal questionnaire survey was undertaken of a random selection of general practice team members in National Health Service Greater Glasgow in 2008/9. In total, 375/711 respondents (53%) from 111 practices participated. The vast majority was aware of a recent significant event, 29% reported not implementing a change and 23% perceived the risk of recurrence as moderate to high. Administrative and community-based staff were infrequently involved in meetings. Dedicated significant event meetings remain uncommon (P = 0.06). Perceptions improved since 2003, but lack of time remained a concern. This survey was the first known attempt to include all members of the primary care team while studying SEA. Awareness and analysis levels were high, but only lead to sustainable improvement of care quality and clinical safety if teams implement change. Greater use should be made of dedicated SEA meetings and participation of all staff groups increased to gain full benefits. Lack of time can be managed pragmatically by prioritizing events based on their perceived severity, potential for change and potential team involvement.

From hijab to jilbab and the ‘myth’ of British identity: being Muslim in contemporary Britain a half‐generation on

This paper is written as a return to the generation of young Muslim women who were participants in a piece of research carried just over a decade ago. Some of these original participants have been re‐interviewed in 2007. The paper traces the shift in discourses around multiculturalism and identity, ethnicity and religion via two recent significant events in Britain. First, the case of a Muslim student excluded from her school for wearing a long, loose, dress‐like outer garment, the jilbab. Second, the riots that took place in several cities in England during the Summer of 2001. Taking these events as signifiers and using the notion of a ‘mythic feedback loop’ in relation to a ‘changing same’, an analysis of the new interviews highlights the movements in the discourses of multiculturalism. The paper argues that the girls’ shifting ‘senses of self’, and their changing discursive articulations, must be understood in light of the sociological changes after 2000 compared to the 1990s, as they dance between the contradictory and shifting discourses concerned with multiculturalism, mediated by notions of essentialism and exclusion, diversity and difference and the difficult and dangerous.

ABA Task Force Urges the SEC to Promulgate “Broker Dealer Lite”

For some time now, in fact years, the SEC Staff has given hints in public that it intends to propose a regulation requiring placement agent/finders, currently unregistered with the SEC and not members of the NASD, both to register and join the NASD. At periodic public events, including seminars and symposia attended by interested SEC staffers, the panelists have outlined what the proposed regulation, known in the trade as “broker/dealer lite,” will look like. The most recent significant event was the publication of an ABA Task Force Report in May 2005, recommending registration, and including commentary, both pro and con, on the Task Force Report9s conclusions, and on the current, ambiguous state of play in the absence of SEC clarification. The following article outlines summarily the principal issues involved, forecasts as the author has for quite a number of years now, that eventually broker/dealer lite will be published and adopted, and discusses the issues posed by operations in the current “Gray Area.” <b>TOPICS:</b>Private equity, exchanges/markets/clearinghouses

Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to predict and monitor the number of beds occupied during a SARS outbreak in a tertiary hospital in Singapore

BackgroundThe main objective of this study is to apply autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to make real-time predictions on the number of beds occupied in Tan Tock Seng Hospital, during the recent SARS outbreak.MethodsThis is a retrospective study design. Hospital admission and occupancy data for isolation beds was collected from Tan Tock Seng hospital for the period 14th March 2003 to 31st May 2003. The main outcome measure was daily number of isolation beds occupied by SARS patients. Among the covariates considered were daily number of people screened, daily number of people admitted (including observation, suspect and probable cases) and days from the most recent significant event discovery. We utilized the following strategy for the analysis. Firstly, we split the outbreak data into two. Data from 14th March to 21st April 2003 was used for model development. We used structural ARIMA models in an attempt to model the number of beds occupied. Estimation is via the maximum likelihood method using the Kalman filter. For the ARIMA model parameters, we considered the simplest parsimonious lowest order model.ResultsWe found that the ARIMA (1,0,3) model was able to describe and predict the number of beds occupied during the SARS outbreak well. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the training set and validation set were 5.7% and 8.6% respectively, which we found was reasonable for use in the hospital setting. Furthermore, the model also provided three-day forecasts of the number of beds required. Total number of admissions and probable cases admitted on the previous day were also found to be independent prognostic factors of bed occupancy.ConclusionARIMA models provide useful tools for administrators and clinicians in planning for real-time bed capacity during an outbreak of an infectious disease such as SARS. The model could well be used in planning for bed-capacity during outbreaks of other infectious diseases as well.

Comparison of response spectrum amplitudes from earthquakes with a lognormally and exponentially distributed return period

This paper addresses the significance, for engineering decisions, of replacing the Poissonian by one-step memory models in describing the occurrence of large periodic earthquakes on fault segments along the plate boundaries. A one-step memory model with a lognormally distributed return period was chosen for the analysis. The constraint imposed on both probabilistic models is that, for a given magnitude interval, the median of the lognormally distributed return period is equal to the expected value of the exponentially distributed return period of the Poissonian model. The hypothetical geologic setting chosen for the analysis is in southern California. It consists of a set of faults, one of which exhibits strongly periodic behavior for larger events (a hypothetical segment of the San Andreas fault about 350 km long, for example) whose occurrence is modeled by either of the two probabilistic models, and of other faults for which the earthquakes form a Poissonian sequence of events. PSV spectral amplitudes, PSL LN and PSV EX for the model with a lognormally and exponentially distributed return period, were evaluated for five probabilities of exceedance ( p = 0·01, 0·1, 0·5, 0·9 and 0·99) at a site on the fault and another site away from the fault. The significance of the difference between the PSV amplitudes calculated by the two models, is measured by the ratio of the two amplitudes (by factor f = PSV LN/PSV EX), and by their difference in terms of the overall uncertainty (by the factor f 1 = PSV LN −PSV EX/σ ∗ , where σ ∗ , is a measure of the standard deviation of the distribution of PSV LN). For a realistic geologic setting and plausible simple scenarios of earthquake occurrences, it is determined how the factors f and f 1 depend on the confidence level of the PSV estimate, the exposure time, Y, the time elapsed since the most recent significant event, t e, and on the uncertainty in the one-step memory model (measured by the parameter ζ, equal to the standard deviation of the distribution of the logarithm of the return period for the one-step memory model). The results show that the difference between the predicted PSV amplitudes by the two occurrence models is most significant for high confidence levels (1% or 10% probability of exceedance), during the exposure time following immediately after a larger earthquake on that fault (elapsed time since the most recent event on the segment of the San Andreas fault equal to zero), for the exposure time about 20–25% of the average return period of the events on the hypothetical segment of the San Andreas fault, and for a site on the hypothetical segment of the San Andreas fault. A factor of less than two and a difference within one standard deviation were considered to be of no significance for engineering practice. The results showed that, for a realistic value of the uncertainty of the one-step memory model ( ζ ≥ 0·2), and for a probability of exceedance of 0·1 or higher, even for a site on the fault, the difference between the predicted PSV amplitudes is not significant for engineering purposes. For a probability of exceedance of 0·01, for a site on the fault, the factor f is not much less than one half for the most conservative estimates of the Poissonian model, and barely or not more than two for the most nonconservative estimate. At the same time, the factor f 1 in absolute value can be well beyond one for the most conservative estimates, but, in general, not more than one for the most nonconservative estimates. For sites away from the fault and closer to the Los Angeles metropolitan area, the difference in the predicted spectra by the two occurrence models is insignificant in terms of the defined criterion.