Recent Ground-motion Prediction Equations Research Articles

Geometric spreading and apparent anelastic attenuation of response spectral accelerations

This paper discusses apparent anelastic (combination of intrinsic and scattering) attenuation of 5% damped response spectral accelerations (SA) associated with the geometric spreading of surface waves. In contrast to the “seismological” Q(f) factor measured using Fourier spectra of S-, Lg- or coda-waves SA quality factor QSA(f) represents apparent anelastic attenuation of response spectral accelerations first introduced in Graizer (2017) [1]. In the recent ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) models for the stable continental regions (SCR) (Graizer, 2017) [1] and active crustal regions (ACR) (Graizer, 2018) [2] I assumed large-distance geometric spreading of SA to be of the order of Ggeom ~ R-0.5. Multiple inversions performed to estimate QSA(f) demonstrated the best fit to be ∼ QSAA(f)=120f0.96 for the ACR for frequencies between 0.1 and 100 Hz and the best fit to be ∼ QSAS(f)=186f0.99 for the SCR for frequencies between 0.1 and 40 Hz. Apparent anelastic attenuation was found to be magnitude dependent with QSA factor increasing with magnitude. Resulting apparent attenuations of response spectral amplitudes at rupture distances of more than 50 km for the ACR and more than 70 km for the SCR are practically linearly dependent upon frequency demonstrating significantly different behavior from the “seismological” Q-factor.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of the Area of Tajikistan Applied to Seismic Design

In current Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis we analyzed an area and fault models. Shallow crust and deep earthquakes are occurred in the area of Tajikistan, and used two area models for shallow earthquakes and one area model for the deep earthquakes. Additionally, we used so called “Woo’s model” or “point model” which is based on the past seismicity more directly. Six active fault databases for Central Asia and specifically for Tajikistan were used to create the fault model.Software CRISIS2015 and recent Ground Motion Prediction Equations were used in the computation. A grid with 0.1 degree of latitude and 0.1 degree of longitude covered the study area, was created for calculations, and for each 9744 grid points we calculated the spectral accelerations from 0.01 s (PGA) to 3.0s, and for 5 exceedance probabilities in 50 years.For easy application of the results in seismic design, all calculations were made for three values of Vs30, corresponding to 3 categories of the soils in the existing Seismic Design Code in Tajikistan.Special 15 Excel sheets were created for engineers and designers to easy construct the uniform hazard spectra for three types of soil conditions for needed points and exceedance probabilities.

Analysis of the 2019 Mw 5.8 Silivri Earthquake Ground Motions: Evidence of Systematic Azimuthal Variations Associated with Directivity Effects

Abstract The main Marmara fault (MMF) extends for 150 km through the Sea of Marmara and forms the only portion of the North Anatolian fault zone that has not ruptured in a large event (Mw>7) for the last 250 yr. Accordingly, this portion is potentially a major source contributing to the seismic hazard of the Istanbul region. On 26 September 2019, a sequence of moderate-sized events started along the MMF only 20 km south of Istanbul and were widely felt by the population. The largest three events, 26 September Mw 5.8 (10:59 UTC), 26 September 2019 Mw 4.1 (11:26 UTC), and 20 January 2020 Mw 4.7 were recorded by numerous strong-motion seismic stations and the resulting ground motions were compared to the predicted means resulting from a set of the most recent ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs). The estimated residuals were used to investigate the spatial variation of ground motion across the Marmara region. Our results show a strong azimuthal trend in ground-motion residuals, which might indicate systematically repeating directivity effects toward the eastern Marmara region.

A Comparison of Ground-Motion Parameters for the Vertical Components from the Western and the Southwestern Parts of China with Recent Ground-Motion Prediction Equations

ABSTRACTThis study evaluated the source, path, and site effects of the vertical ground motions from the western and the southwestern parts of China (referred to as SWC hereafter) using 2403 records from 449 earthquakes, including the records from the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake and its aftershocks. Only 677 records are from 73 mainshocks, and 259 events do not have a known focal mechanism. There is a large magnitude gap in the dataset, for example, there is only one event between Mw 6.3 and Mw 7.8. The average numbers of records per recording station and per earthquake are small, and many sites do not have a measured shear-wave velocity profile. These shortcomings make it difficult to develop a robust ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) without adding overseas data or using a reference GMPE developed from a large dataset. We compared the SWC dataset with five recent GMPEs, three based on the Next Generation Attenuation-West2 dataset, one based on Europe and the Middle East, and one based on the shallow-crustal and upper-mantle earthquakes in Japan. We decomposed the total residuals for each model into constant term, between-event, and within-event residuals and calculated the corresponding standard deviations. The maximum log likelihood and the standard deviations suggest that, among the five GMPEs, the Zhao et al. (2017) model without the normal-fault term may be the most suitable GMPE for a probabilistic seismic hazard study in the SWC region. Correction functions based on simple magnitude, path, and site effect parameters were used to correct the residuals and to obtain the leftover between- and within-event standard deviations. These standard deviations appear to suggest that the GMPE from Zhao et al. (2017) without a normal-fault term may be the most suitable reference GMPE for developing a new GMPE for the SWC region.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Pakistan Territory Using an Areal Source Model

A seismic hazard map for the national seismic design code of Pakistan (i.e., Building Code of Pakistan) is derived using probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) approach. In order to update the seismic code, an updated seismic zoning map is required that should be based on usage of the recent seismic hazard elements. PSHA of Pakistan is an essential and important milestone. For this purpose, the standard Cornell–McGuire (1968–1976) approach is employed, and the computations are made over a rectangular grid of 0.1°. The main features of this study include usage of a recently compiled earthquake catalogue, recent ground motion prediction equations and an updated seismic source model. The resulting ground motions are obtained as peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 5% damped spectral acceleration (SA) at T = 0.2 s and T = 1.0 s for 475-, 975- and 2475-year return periods (RPs) (evaluated for the flat rock site conditions). Results of the study show that seismic hazard in Pakistan is highest in its central and northern parts. In the central part near Quetta, severe seismic hazard (PGA 0.40 g) is observed. Among the important cities in Pakistan, Balakot city is likely to experience a PGA value of 0.36 g, while Islamabad, Peshawar and Chitral are likely to experience 0.33 g. The cities of Gilgit, Karachi and Gwadar experience ground motion values of 0.34, 0.26 and 0.29 g, respectively, for the 475-year return period (RP). It has also been observed that ground motion values show variation in the distribution and magnitude in contrast to the hazard map of national design code. The hazard map presented in this study is the improved seismic hazard zoning map of Pakistan that would be helpful in developing pre-disaster mitigation strategies and risk assessment studies in Pakistan. It is concluded that the seismic zoning map of the national seismic design code of Pakistan underestimates the ground motion values, and it should be updated or replaced.

Comparison of Soil Nonlinearity (In SituStress–Strain Relation and G/Gmax Reduction) Observed in Strong‐Motion Databases and Modeled in Ground‐Motion Prediction Equations

Research Article| November 20, 2018 Comparison of Soil Nonlinearity (In Situ Stress–Strain Relation and G/Gmax Reduction) Observed in Strong‐Motion Databases and Modeled in Ground‐Motion Prediction Equations Philippe Guéguen; Philippe Guéguen aISTerre, Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS/IFSTTAR, 1381 rue de la piscine ‐ CS40700, 38058 Grenoble, Cedex 9, France, philippe.gueguen@univ-grenoble-alpes.fr Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Luis Fabian Bonilla; Luis Fabian Bonilla bDépartement GERS (Géotechnique, Environnement, Risques naturels et Sciences de la terre), Laboratoire Séismes et Vibrations, Université Paris Est ‐ IFSTTAR, 14‐20 Boulevard Newton, Cité Descartes, 77447 Marne‐la‐Vallée, Cedex 2, France Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar John Douglas John Douglas cDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Strathclyde, James Weir Building, 75 Montrose Street, Glasgow G1 1XJ, United Kingdom Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2019) 109 (1): 178–186. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120180169 Article history first online: 20 Nov 2018 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation Philippe Guéguen, Luis Fabian Bonilla, John Douglas; Comparison of Soil Nonlinearity (In Situ Stress–Strain Relation and G/Gmax Reduction) Observed in Strong‐Motion Databases and Modeled in Ground‐Motion Prediction Equations. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 2018;; 109 (1): 178–186. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120180169 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietyBulletin of the Seismological Society of America Search Advanced Search Abstract Earthquake ground motions are strongly affected by the upper tens of meters of the Earth’s crust and consequently local site effects need to be included in any ground‐motion prediction. In ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs), it is increasingly common to account for possible nonlinear behavior of near‐surface materials (soil). These nonlinear site terms adjust observations made on soft soil sites to the ground motion expected on bedrock and hence allow these abundant soil records to be used within the regression analysis for the derivation of empirical GMPEs. These nonlinear site terms also allow rapid predictions of the expected ground motions on soil rather than requiring a site‐response analysis to be conducted. In this study, we compare the signature on observed peak ground acceleration as a function of a strain proxy of nonlinear soil behavior within four large strong‐motion databases to the predicted signature from four recent GMPEs, three of which explicitly include nonlinear site terms. We find that observed nonlinearity in the databases, interpreted in terms of strain–stress relationships and reduction of shear modulus, is limited, but even this limited effect is underestimated by the nonlinear site terms of the considered GMPEs, which suggests that predictions from these GMPEs could be biased for soft soil sites but also on bedrock. Some of this mismatch could be explained by the use of the average shear‐wave velocity in the top 30 m (⁠VS30⁠) to characterize sites as well as errors in these values. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.

The estimated PGA map of the Mw6.4 2006 Yogyakarta Indonesia earthquake, constructed from the Modified Mercalli intensity IMM

Many moderate and strong earthquakes have occurred in Indonesia. However, since ground motion records are unavailable, a concise earthquake peak ground acceleration (PGA) map has never before been constructed. Several efforts have been made to construct PGA maps after the Mw6.4 2006 Yogyakarta earthquake, i.e. earthquake PGA maps by researchers [1–4]. However, due to their use of completely different earthquake sources, methods of analysis and by using exclusion criteria of ground motion prediction equations (GMPE), the maps differed greatly and did not match the actual structural damage found in the field. Estimation of a 2006 Yogyakarta earthquake PGA map became possible after field surveying of the Imm conducted by Wijaya [5]. The estimated PGA map was constructed based on the isoseimic lines, intensity prediction equation (IPE) by Wijaya [5] and peak ground acceleration at YOGI and BJI station control points, as published by Elnashai et al [6]. A set of most recent GMPEs were chosen, as they closely predicted the PGA at two control points. An Extrapolation Method was developed in which the PGA between YOGI and BJI stations would be extrapolated to all data points in the field to yield the 2006 Yogyakarta seismic PGA map. Result of the investigation indicated that the pattern of the new PGA map does not form a circle with radius R, but occurs longitudinally following the direction of the Opak River fault trace and closely follows the pattern of Imm map and damage to buildings in the field. It was found that the maximum upperbound PGA reached ±0.50-0.51g and it did not occur at the epicenter area but instead took place in relatively deep soil deposit approximately ±2 km west of the Opak River fault.

STUDY ON SITE CONDITIONS BASED ON TOPOGRAPHIC SLOPE

Abstract. The travel-time averaged shear-wave velocity to a depth of 30m (Vs30) below the Earth’s surface is widely used to classify sites in many building codes. Vs30 is also used to estimate site classification in recent ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs), and the distribution of Vs30 has been mapped in a region or country. An alternative method has recently been proposed for evaluating global seismic site conditions or Vs30, from the SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) DEMs (digital elevation models). The basic premise of the method is that the topographic slope can be used as a reliable proxy for Vs30 in the absence of geologically and geotechnically based site-condition maps through correlations between Vs30 measurements and topographic gradient. Here, we use different resolutions (3 arcsec, 30 arcsec) DEM data to get Vs30 data separately, analyze and compare the difference of Vs30 data and site conditions obtained from different resolution DEM data. Shandong Province in eastern China and Sichuan Province in Western China are studied respectively. It is found that the higher resolution data is better at defining spatial topographic features than the 30c data, but less improvement in its correlation with Vs30.

Probabilistic seismic hazard at the archaeological site of Gol Gumbaz in Vijayapura, south India

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is carried out for the archaeological site of Vijayapura in south India in order to obtain hazard consistent seismic input ground-motions for seismic risk assessment and design of seismic protection measures for monuments, where warranted. For this purpose the standard Cornell-McGuire approach, based on seismogenic zones with uniformly distributed seismicity is employed. The main features of this study are the usage of an updated and unified seismic catalogue based on moment magnitude, new seismogenic source models and recent ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) in logic tree framework. Seismic hazard at the site is evaluated for level and rock site condition with 10% and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years, and the corresponding peak ground accelerations (PGAs) are 0.074 and 0.142 g, respectively. In addition, the uniform hazard spectra (UHS) of the site are compared to the Indian code-defined spectrum. Comparisons are also made with results from National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA 2010), in terms of PGA and pseudo spectral accelerations (PSAs) at T = 0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 1.25 s for 475- and 2475-yr return periods. Results of the present study are in good agreement with the PGA calculated from isoseismal map of the Killari earthquake, \({\hbox {M}}_{\mathrm{w}} = 6.4\) (1993). Disaggregation of PSHA results for the PGA and spectral acceleration (\({\hbox {S}}_{\mathrm{a}}\)) at 0.5 s, displays the controlling scenario earthquake for the study region as low to moderate magnitude with the source being at a short distance from the study site. Deterministic seismic hazard (DSHA) is also carried out by taking into account three scenario earthquakes. The UHS corresponding to 475-yr return period (RP) is used to define the target spectrum and accordingly, the spectrum-compatible natural accelerograms are selected from the suite of recorded accelerograms.

Peak ground accelerations from large (M\xa0\u2265\xa07.2) shallow crustal earthquakes: a comparison with predictions from eight recent ground-motion models

Strong-motion data from large (M ≥ 7.2) shallow crustal earthquakes invariably make up a small proportion of the records used to develop empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Consequently GMPEs are more poorly constrained for large earthquakes than for small events. In this article peak ground accelerations (PGAs) observed in 38 earthquakes worldwide with M ≥ 7.2 are compared with those predicted by eight recent GMPEs. Well over half of the 38 earthquakes were not considered when deriving these GMPEs but the data were identified by a thorough literature review of strong-motion reports from the past 60 years. These data are provided in an electronic supplement for future investigations on ground motions from large earthquakes. The addition of these data provides better constraint of the between-event ground-motion variability in large earthquakes. It is found that the eight models generally provide good predictions for PGAs from these earthquakes, although there is evidence for slight under- or over-prediction of motions by some models (particularly for M > 7.6). The between-event variabilities predicted by most models match the observed variability, if data from two events (2001 Bhuj and 2005 Crescent City) that are likely atypical of earthquakes in active regions are excluded. For some GMPEs there is evidence that they are over-predicting PGAs in the near-source region of large earthquakes as well as over-predicting motions on hard rock. Overall, however, all the considered models, despite having been derived using limited data, provide reliable predictions of PGAs in the largest crustal earthquakes.

Within-Event and Between-Events Ground Motion Variability from Earthquake Rupture Scenarios

Measurement of ground motion variability is essential to estimate seismic hazard. Over-estimation of variability can lead to extremely high annual hazard estimates of ground motion exceedance. We explore different parameters that affect the variability of ground motion such as the spatial correlations of kinematic rupture parameters on a finite fault and the corner frequency of the moment-rate spectra. To quantify the variability of ground motion, we simulate kinematic rupture scenarios on several vertical strike-slip faults and compute ground motion using the representation theorem. In particular, for the entire suite of rupture scenarios, we quantify the within-event and the between-events ground motion variability of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and response spectra at several periods, at 40 stations—all approximately at an equal distance of 20 and 50 km from the fault. Both within-event and between-events ground motion variability increase when the slip correlation length on the fault increases. The probability density functions of ground motion tend to truncate at a finite value when the correlation length of slip decreases on the fault, therefore, we do not observe any long-tail distribution of peak ground acceleration when performing several rupture simulations for small correlation lengths. Finally, for a correlation length of 6 km, the within-event and between-events PGA log-normal standard deviations are 0.58 and 0.19, respectively, values slightly smaller than those reported by Boore et al. (Earthq Spectra, 30(3):1057–1085, 2014). The between-events standard deviation is consistently smaller than the within-event for all correlations lengths, a feature that agrees with recent ground motion prediction equations.

What is the impact of the August 24, 2016 Amatrice earthquake on the seismic hazard assessment in central Italy?

<p>The recent Amatrice strong event (M<sub>w</sub>6.0) occurred on August 24, 2016 in Central Apennines (Italy) in a seismic gap zone, motivated us to study and provide better understanding of the seismic hazard assessment in the macro area defined as “Central Italy”. The area affected by the sequence is placed between the M<sub>w</sub>6.0 1997 Colfiorito sequence to the north (Umbria-Marche region) the Campotosto area hit by the 2009 L’Aquila sequence M<sub>w</sub>6.3 (Abruzzo region) to the south. The Amatrice earthquake occurred while there was an ongoing effort to update the 2004 seismic hazard map (MPS04) for the Italian territory, requested in 2015 by the Italian Civil Protection Agency to the Center for Seismic Hazard (CPS) of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia INGV. Therefore, in this study we brought to our attention new earthquake source data and recently developed ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Our aim was to validate whether the seismic hazard assessment in this area has changed with respect to 2004, year in which the MPS04 map was released. In order to understand the impact of the recent earthquakes on the seismic hazard assessment in central Italy we compared the annual seismic rates calculated using a smoothed seismicity approach over two different periods; the Parametric Catalog of the Historical Italian earthquakes (CPTI15) from 1871 to 2003 and the historical and instrumental catalogs from 1871 up to 31 August 2016. Results are presented also in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA), using the recent ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) at Amatrice, interested by the 2016 sequence.</p>

S-wave velocity structure and site effect parameters derived from microtremor arrays in the Western Plain of Taiwan

In this study, microtremor array measurements were conducted at 45 sites in the Western Plain of Taiwan. The arrays were approximately 30m or 60m in radius, depending on the site. The maximum-likelihood frequency–wavenumber method was adopted to obtain the phase velocities of Rayleigh waves, and then a genetic algorithm technique based on an inversion scheme of the fundamental mode of the Rayleigh waves’ dispersion curves was applied to calculate a preliminary S-wave velocity (Vs) profile at each site. Because a layer of thick sediment covers the bedrock in the Western Plain of Taiwan, microtremor arrays in this size range cannot estimate the structure of the entire sediment. Therefore, this study implemented further inversion of the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios of the microtremors to estimate the deeper structures up to the bedrock of Vs greater than 1000m/s. Previously logged velocity profiles for different depths at or near our study sites were collected and compared with the Vs profiles derived from our microtremor array measurements; the results were found to be highly comparable. Therefore, we could delineate the depth distributions for the layer depths for Vs=600m/s and 1000m/s in this region. The depth for Vs=600m/s is approximately 50m in the piedmont area and approximately 300m at the coastline; moreover, the depths for Vs=1000m/s increase from 200m in the piedmont area to approximately 1000m at the coastline. The depths for Vs=1.0km/s (Z1.0), which is an important parameter that accounts for the basin effect in recent ground motion prediction equations, are consequently available at the study sites. The distribution of Z1.0 as a function of Vs30 indicates higher similarity to that in Japan than in the San Francisco Bay area.

A Generalization of the Double-Corner-Frequency Source Spectral Model and Its Use in the SCEC BBP Validation Exercise

The stochastic method of simulating ground motions requires the speci- fication of the shape and scaling with magnitude of the source spectrum. The spectral models commonly used are either single-corner-frequency or double-corner- frequency models, but the latter have no flexibility to vary the high-frequency spectral levels for a specified seismic moment. Two generalized double-corner-frequency ω 2 source spectral models are introduced, one in which two spectra are multiplied to- gether and another where they are added. Both models have a low-frequency depend- ence controlled by the seismic moment and a high-frequency spectral level controlled by the seismic moment and a stress parameter. Awide range of spectral shapes can be obtained from these generalized spectral models, which makes them suitable for in- versions of data to obtain spectral models that can be used in ground-motion simu- lations in situations in which adequate data are not available for purely empirical determinations of ground motions, such as in stable continental regions. As an exam- ple of the use of the generalized source spectral models, data from up to 40 stations from seven events, plus response spectra at two distances and two magnitudes from recent ground-motion prediction equations, were inverted to obtain the parameters controlling the spectral shapes, as well as a finite-fault factor that is used in point- source, stochastic-method simulations of ground motion. The fits to the data are com- parable to or even better than those from finite-fault simulations, even for sites close to large earthquakes.

Strong motion recorded during the Emilia 2012 thrust earthquakes (Northern Italy): a comprehensive analysis

A complex seismic sequence characterised by two thrust earthquakes of magnitudes M $$_\mathrm{L}$$ 5.9 and M $$_\mathrm{L}$$ 5.8 occurred on May 20 and 29, 2012, respectively, and activated the central portion of the Ferrara Arc structure beneath the Po Plain in northern Italy. The sequence, referred to as Emilia 2012, was recorded by the Italian Strong Motion Network, the Irpinia Network, the Friuli Venezia Giulia Network and 15 temporary stations installed by the Civil Protection Department. In this study, we compile and analyse a large dataset that contains 3,273 waveforms from 37 $$M_\mathrm{L} \ge 4.0$$ seismic events. The main aim of this paper is to characterise the ground motion induced by the Emilia 2012 seismic sequence and compare it with other data in the Italian strong motion database and to the recent Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) developed for northern Italy, all of Italy and Europe. This is achieved by (1) the computation and analysis of the strong motion parameters of the entire Emilia Strong Motion Dataset (ESMD) and (2) a comprehensive investigation of the May 29 event recordings in terms of time–frequency analysis, the ground motion parameters and the response spectra. This detailed analysis was made possible by the temporary Civil Protection Department stations that were installed soon after the May 20 event at several municipalities in the epicentral area. Most of the recordings are characterised by low-frequency content and long durations, which is a result of the thick sedimentary cover that is typical of the Po Plain. The distributions of the observed horizontal peak ground accelerations and velocities (PGAs and PGVs) with distance are generally consistent with the GMPEs. This is particularly true for the data from M $$_\mathrm{L} \ge $$ 5.0 (M $$_\mathrm{W}\ge $$ 5.0) events, though the data are scattered at distances beyond approximately 60–70 km and show faster attenuation than the European GMPEs. The horizontal components for the May 29 event at two near-fault stations (Mirandola and San Felice sul Panaro) are overestimated by all of the analysed GMPEs. In contrast, the vertical components, which played an important role in the shaking near the source, are underestimated. The May 29 event produced intense velocity pulses on the horizontal components and the highest peak ground acceleration ever recorded in Italy on the vertical component of the Mirandola near-fault station. The ground motion recordings contained in the ESMD significantly enrich the Italian strong motion database. They contribute new information about (1) the possibility of exceeding the largest recorded PGA in Italy, (2) the development of a spectral design that takes into account the role of the vertical component and the extreme variability of the near-fault ground shaking, and (3) the characterisation of the ground motions in deep sedimentary basins.

Considering potential seismic sources in earthquake hazard assessment for Northern Iran

Located on the Alpine-Himalayan earthquake belt, Iran is one of the seismically active regions of the world. Northern Iran, south of Caspian Basin, a hazardous subduction zone, is a densely populated and developing area of the country. Historical and instrumental documented seismicity indicates the occurrence of severe earthquakes leading to many deaths and large losses in the region. With growth of seismological and tectonic data, updated seismic hazard assessment is a worthwhile issue in emergency management programs and long-term developing plans in urban and rural areas of this region. In the present study, being armed with up-to-date information required for seismic hazard assessment including geological data and active tectonic setting for thorough investigation of the active and potential seismogenic sources, and historical and instrumental events for compiling the earthquake catalogue, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is carried out for the region using three recent ground motion prediction equations. The logic tree method is utilized to capture epistemic uncertainty of the seismic hazard assessment in delineation of the seismic sources and selection of attenuation relations. The results are compared to a recent practice in code-prescribed seismic hazard of the region and are discussed in detail to explore their variation in each branch of logic tree approach. Also, seismic hazard maps of peak ground acceleration in rock site for 475- and 2,475-year return periods are provided for the region.

The Uses and Limitations of the Square-Root-Impedance Method for Computing Site Amplification

The square-root-impedance (SRI) method is a fast way of computing approximate site amplification that does not depend on the details from velocity mod- els. The SRI method underestimates the peak response of models with large imped- ance contrasts near their base, but the amplifications for those models is often close to or equal to the root mean square of the theoretical full resonant (FR) response of the higher modes. On the other hand, for velocity models made up of gradients, with no significant impedance changes across small ranges of depth, the SRI method system- atically underestimates the theoretical FR response over a wide frequency range. For commonly used gradient models for generic rock sites, the SRI method underestimates the FR response by about 20%-30%. Notwithstanding the persistent underestimation of amplifications from theoretical FR calculations, however, amplifications from the SRI method may often provide more useful estimates of amplifications than the FR method, because the SRI amplifications are not sensitive to details of the models and will not exhibit the many peaks and valleys characteristic of theoretical full resonant amplifications (jaggedness sometimes not seen in amplifications based on averages of site response from multiple recordings at a given site). The lack of sensitivity to details of the velocity models also makes the SRI method useful in comparing the response of various velocity models, in spite of any systematic underestimation of the response. The quarter-wavelength average velocity, which is fundamental to the SRI method, is useful by itself in site characterization, and as such, is the fundamental parameter used to characterize the site response in a number of recent ground-motion prediction equations.

Scalar and vector probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: application for Algiers City

This study deals with the application of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for a rock site located in Algiers city. For this purpose, recent ground motion prediction equations developed in the world for similar sismotectonic context are used through logic tree in PSHA framework; the obtained results reflect clearly the high seismicity of the considered region. Moreover, deaggregation analysis is conducted to obtain the mean scenario in terms of magnitude and distance. In addition to the scalar-PSHA, a new method named vector-PSHA developed in recent years is performed in this study. Based on the multivariate probability theory, the software used in scalar approach is modified allowing the application of this approach for a real site in Algiers city with a vector of two and three parameters of intensity measure. The results are presented in terms of the joint annual rate of exceeding several thresholds such as PGA, PSA(T) of multiple vibration periods, peak ground velocity and Arias intensity and comparison between results of PSHA and V-PSHA is done.

Source-to-site distance distributions for area type of seismic sources used in PSHA applications

The use of recent ground motion prediction equations in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) with area type of seismic sources requires defining the probability distributions of various source-to-site distance metrics with finite fault rupture taken into account. This task is rendered very difficult due to large epistemic uncertainties involved in specifying the details of the causative faults for area sources of diffused seismicity. However, it may generally be possible to constrain the strike and dip angles for fault ruptures in area sources from regional seismotectonic and geological information. This paper proposes to estimate the various finite fault distance measures from a site to a location in an area source by averaging the distances for several fault rupture scenarios with randomly distributed strike and dip over specified ranges. To consider the spatial distribution of the seismicity, the paper then provides the guidelines for defining the distance distributions by assigning suitable weight factors to the distance estimates for a grid of locations in the source area. The PSHA computation based on the distance distributions thus defined is shown to provide quite realistic and objective estimate of the hazard.

Preliminary results of ground-motion characteristics

The preliminary results are presented herein for the engineering applications of the characteristics of the ground motion induced by the May 20, 2012, Emilia earthquake. Shake maps are computed to provide estimates of the spatial distribution of the induced ground motion. The signals recorded at the Mirandola (MRN) station, the closest to the epicenter, have been processed to obtain acceleration, velocity and displacement response spectra. Ground-motion parameters from the MRN recordings are compared with the corresponding estimates from recent ground-motion prediction equations, and with the spectra prescribed by the current Italian Building Code for different return periods. The records from the MRN station are used to plot the particle orbit (hodogram) described by the waveform. The availability of results from geotechnical field tests that were performed at a few sites in the Municipality of Mirandola prior to this earthquake of May 2012 has allowed preliminary assessment of the ground response. The amplification effects at Mirandola are estimated using fully stochastic site-response analyses. The seismic input comprises seven actual records that are compatible with the Italian code-based spectrum that refers to a 475-year return period. The computed acceleration response spectrum and the associated dispersion are compared to the spectra calculated from the recordings of the MRN station. Good agreement is obtained for periods up to 1 s, especially for the peak ground acceleration. For the other periods, the spectral acceleration of the MRN recordings exceeds that of the computed spectra.<br />