Recent Developments In Time-series Econometrics Research Articles

Is there an Arms Race between Greece and Turkey?

Richardson's action-reaction model of an arms race has prompted a considerable body of research that has attempted to empirically estimate such models. In general these attempts have been unsuccessful. This paper provides an extensive reconsideration of the estimation issues and using some recent developments in time-series econometrics, provides a comprehensive analysis of data for Greece and Turkey. It finds evidence of some form of cointegration between the military expenditures in both countries, but not of Richardson arms race type.

A Comment on 'The Information Content of Earnings and Prices: A Simultaneous Equations Approach' by W.H. Beaver, M.L. McAnally, and C.H. Stinson (1997)

We comment on a recent paper by Beaver, McAnally and Stinson (1997), drawing attention to the fact that their method ignores some recent developments in time-series econometrics. We apply a bi-variate vector autoregression framework to price and earnings data of listed US companies and the S&P 500 index to capture the dynamics of this system of equations. Although some series are I(1), cointegration does not exist and consequently we are unable to estimate a vector error correction model. However, by applying generalised variance decomposition and generalised impulse response analysis, we conclude that evidence favours a linkage from prices to earnings.

Value maximization and the information content of corporate investment with respect to earnings

In this paper we study the dynamic nature of the relationship between earnings and investment. If managers act as wealth maximizers, we would expect that new investments should lead to increased earnings. However, past research has found that investment is not causally prior to earnings. Using recent developments in time-series econometrics, we show that the dynamic nature of the relationship between earnings and investment exhibits bi-directional causality. Our results are consistent with managers investing in positive NPV projects, but managers appear to face financing constraints because investment decisions are driven by the availability of internally generated earnings.

Testing for homogeneity in demand systems when the regressors are nonstationary

AbstractAn implication of optimizing theory is that demand functions are homogeneous of degree zero in prices and nominal income. Evidence based on estimations of demand systems has repeatedly found this restriction to be rejected by the data. However, the hypothesis is often formulated in terms of regressors that are non‐stationary. This paper re‐examines the evidence for homogeneity in light of recent developments in time‐series econometrics with special emphasis on the treatment of trends. We find the demand system to be stochastically but not deterministically cointegrated. Using techniques developed for estimating cointegrating vectors in the presence of deterministic trends, we re‐estimate the demand system and find that homogeneity holds in many cases.