Recent Climate Anomalies Research Articles

소방현장 대응 강화를 위한 법제 개선 방안

Disasters are unpredictable things that do not know when they will occur in our daily lives and cause a lot of damage to the country, society and people. Due to recent climate anomalies and industrial development, disasters occur regardless of place and time. Natural disasters and social disasters, such as typhoons, fire damage, and rain damage due to excessive rain, occur simultaneously. Disasters do not arise from any single cause. Even if it is a natural disaster, the damage is more serious due to the lack of defense and response.
 Therefore, in order to actively and efficiently deal with disasters, the problems of the current legal system must be improved. Firefighting agencies are the first to respond to a disaster scene, especially at a firefighting site. In order for firefighting agencies to perform their duties efficiently, it is necessary to grant authority to strengthen on-site responses to firefighting agencies. In the current legal system, firefighting agencies perform tasks in an auxiliary position rather than having direct supervision.
 Due to the absence of command and supervision rights for field responsiveness of firefighting agencies, it is difficult for firefighting agencies to respond efficiently at firefighting sites. Therefore, in order to strengthen the on-site responsiveness of firefighting agencies, this study analyzed the problems in firefighting-related laws such as the “Framework Act on Disaster and Safety Management” and suggested improvement plans to strengthen the on-site responsiveness of firefighting agencies. In order to strengthen the on-site responsiveness of firefighting agencies, public safety must be secured through the improvement of the current legal system.

A resurrection study reveals limited evolution of thermal performance in response to recent climate change across the geographic range of the scarlet monkeyflower.

Evolutionary rescue can prevent populations from declining under climate change, and should be more likely at high-latitude, "leading" edges of species' ranges due to greater temperature anomalies and gene flow from warm-adapted populations. Using a resurrection study with seeds collected before and after a 7-year period of record warming, we tested for thermal adaptation in the scarlet monkeyflower Mimulus cardinalis. We grew ancestors and descendants from northern-edge, central, and southern-edge populations across eight temperatures. Despite recent climate anomalies, populations showed limited evolution of thermal performance curves. However, one southern population evolved a narrower thermal performance breadth by 1.31°C, which matches the direction and magnitude of the average decrease in seasonality experienced. Consistent with the climate variability hypothesis, thermal performance breadth increased with temperature seasonality across the species' geographic range. Inconsistent with performance trade-offs between low and high temperatures across populations, we did not detect a positive relationship between thermal optimum and mean temperature. These findings fail to support the hypothesis that evolutionary response to climate change is greatest at the leading edge, and suggest that the evolution of thermal performance is unlikely to rescue most populations from the detrimental effects of rapidly changing climate.

INFLUENCE OF ENSO ON WET AND DRY SPELL FREQUENCY FOR RAINFED CROPPING PERIOD OVER TAMIL NADU

Abstract. Several factors are responsible for recent climatic anomalies includes seasonal and inter-annual variability of rainfall in the region in which regional and global sea surface temperature (SST) changes is the most significant factor. It is well recognized that El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of climate variability on seasonal to inter-annual scales and its impacts are felt worldwide. Seasonal to inter-annual rainfall fluctuations strongly affect the success of agriculture and the abundance of water resources. Daily rainfall data at district scale was obtained from India Meteorological Department (IMD) for a period of 43 years (1971–2013) was categorized based on the ENSO episodes and the analysis was performed for the rainfed cropping period (RCP, September–December). A week (7 days) with the cumulative rainfall amount of 50 mm was considered as one wet spell. Non rainy days observed continuously for a decade (10 days) that period was considered to be one dry spell. Results revealed that El Niño conditions positively influenced the rainfall. Compared to neutral years, La Niña years received less rainfall as it showed the negative deviation in most of districts of Tamil Nadu. More wet spell and lesser dry spell weeks was observed under El Niño condition while the lesser wet spell and more dry spell was observed under La Niña conditions. Higher amount of rainfall during El Niño led to more number of wet spells under El Niño event.

Fluctuating reproductive rates in Hawaii's humpback whales, Megaptera novaeangliae, reflect recent climate anomalies in the North Pacific.

Alongside changing ocean temperatures and ocean chemistry, anthropogenic climate change is now impacting the fundamental processes that support marine systems. However, where natural climate aberrations mask or amplify the impacts of anthropogenic climate change, identifying key detrimental changes is challenging. In these situations, long-term, systematic field studies allow the consequences of anthropogenically driven climate change to be distinguished from the expected fluctuations in natural resources. In this study, we describe fluctuations in encounter rates for humpback whales, Megaptera novaeangliae, between 2008 and 2018. Encounter rates were assessed during transect surveys of the Au'Au Channel, Maui, Hawaii. Initially, rates increased, tracking projected growth rates for this population segment. Rates reached a peak in 2013, then declined through 2018. Specifically, between 2013 and 2018, mother–calf encounter rates dropped by 76.5%, suggesting a rapid reduction in the reproductive rate of the newly designated Hawaii Distinct Population Segment of humpback whales during this time. As this decline coincided with changes in the Pacific decadal oscillation, the development of the NE Pacific marine heat wave and the evolution of the 2016 El Niño, this may be another example of the impact of this potent trifecta of climatic events within the North Pacific.

Interacting effects of temperature and precipitation on climatic sensitivity of spring vegetation green-up in arid mountains of China

Vegetation spring phenology in arid mountain regions is undergoing profound changes as a result of recent climate anomalies. While shifts in the timing of growth onset have been widely attributed to temperature and precipitation, interacting effects of these two climate variables on phenology have not been explored. To better understand whether an interaction between temperature and precipitation may be present, and how it may affect phenology, we first determined the influence of preseason temperature and precipitation on the starting date of vegetation growing season (SOS), and then investigated the spatial pattern of climatic sensitivity of SOS and its relation to preseason temperature/precipitation. We used satellite-derived estimates of SOS for the Qilian Mountains (QLMs) in northwestern China. Our results revealed a significant interaction between temperature and precipitation, contributing up to 30% of total variability in predicted ecosystem-level SOS. This interacting effect was likely achieved through the influence on climatic sensitivity of SOS; we found a close relationship between temperature sensitivity and preseason cumulative precipitation, and a significant association between precipitation sensitivity and preseason temperatures. Spatially, SOS was more sensitive to variability in preseason temperature in wetter than in dryer areas; likewise, a spatial increase in thermal accumulation often corresponded to an enhancement in precipitation sensitivity of SOS. These findings highlight the importance of interacting effects of climatic variables in model projections of future spring phenology, and indicate that unexpected shifts in vegetation phenology in response to climatic extremes may occur under the influence of strong interactions of climatic factors.

Assessing temperature sensitivity of subalpine shrub phenology in semi-arid mountain regions of China

Subalpine shrubs are undergoing, or have experienced profound changes by force of recent climate anomalies, such as the alteration in temporal niche of phenophases and the dynamic interaction with ambient conditions. As cold biomes in high-altitude ecoregions, they have drawn a growing concern of the potential vulnerability to current and future climate change. In this study, we retrieved the time series (2000–2013) of satellite-based phenological transitions (the onset and offset of vegetative growth) for subalpine shrubs at five individual sites in the Qilian Mountains in northwestern China. Our goals were to identify the climatic constraints on the timing of leaf-out and leaf-fall, and to project these phenological patterns under the future climate conditions. To achieve these goals, the relationships between these regional phenological events and climate variables were investigated with univariate and multivariate time series models, and the future phenological dynamics were forecasted for two decades based on the best predictive models under the A2 and B2 of IPCCs Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Our results generally revealed site-dependent phenology–climate relationships, which involved an immediate phenological response to the mean or minimum temperature in the corresponding month of occurrence, and a lagged cumulative climate effect across preceding months and seasons. Average temperature during a certain period has been demonstrated as an important limiting factor for plant growth. However, our results also provided evidence for the minimum temperature controls of the development of phenological events in subalpine shrublands, possibly due to a close association with the frequency of frost risk in spring and autumn. Under future climate conditions, an overall lengthening of the active growing season is expected at each of the study sites depending on elevation. Consequently, net carbon uptake by shrubs will benefit from the increased temperature.

A tale of two springs: using recent climate anomalies to characterize the sensitivity of temperate forest phenology to climate change

By the end of this century, mean annual temperatures in the Northeastern United States are expected to warm by 3–5 °C, which will have significant impacts on the structure and function of temperate forests in this region. To improve understanding of these impacts, we exploited two recent climate anomalies to explore how the springtime phenology of Northeastern temperate deciduous forests will respond to future climate warming. Specifically, springtime temperatures in 2010 and 2012 were the warmest on record in the Northeastern United States, with temperatures that were roughly equivalent to the lower end of warming scenarios that are projected for this region decades from now. Climate conditions in these two years therefore provide a unique empirical basis, that complements model-based studies, for improving understanding of how northeastern temperate forest phenology will change in the future. To perform our investigation, we analyzed near surface air temperatures from the United States Historical Climatology Network, time series of satellite-derived vegetation indices from NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, and in situ phenological observations. Our study region encompassed the northern third of the eastern temperate forest ecoregion, extending from Pennsylvania to Canada. Springtime temperatures in 2010 and 2012 were nearly 3 °C warmer than long-term average temperatures from 1971–2000 over the region, leading to median anomalies of more than 100 growing degree days. In response, satellite and ground observations show that leaf emergence occurred up to two weeks earlier than normal, but with significant sensitivity to the specific timing of thermal forcing. These results are important for two reasons. First, they provide an empirical demonstration of the sensitivity of springtime phenology in northeastern temperate forests to future climate change that supports and complements model-based predictions. Second, our results show that subtle differences in the character of thermal forcing can substantially alter the timing of leaf emergence and canopy development. By explicitly comparing and contrasting the timing of thermal forcing and leaf phenology in 2010 and 2012, we show that even though temperatures were warmer in 2012 than in 2010, the nature and timing of thermal forcing in 2010 lead to leaf emergence that was almost a week earlier than 2012.

Atlantic overturning in decline?

Global ocean circulation is an important factor in climate variability and change. In particular, changes in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) have been implicated in ancient climate events, as well as in recent climate anomalies such as the rapid warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the mid-1990s. A series of moored current meters and temperature sensors deployed in the Atlantic at 26° N known as the RAPID-MOCHA array has been used to monitor the strength of meridional overturning since 2004. The data indicate a decline in this strength over the period 2004–20123. Here, using additional observations and climate model simulations we suggest that this measured decline is not merely a short-term fluctuation, but is part of a substantial reduction in meridional overturning occurring on a decadal timescale.

Techno-Economic Potential of Retrofitting Diesel Power Systems with Hybrid Wind-Photovoltaic-Diesel Systems for Off-Grid Electrification of Remote Villages of Saudi Arabia

Recent climatic anomalies such as hot summers, cold winters, hurricanes, and cyclones are all reflections of global warming due to burning of fossil fuels. To combat unprecedented global warming and to mitigate future energy challenges, there is worldwide interest in utilization of renewable sources of energy such as solar-photovoltaic (solar-PV) and wind energy. Other driving forces paving avenue for renewable energy include rapid escalation in oil prices, growing concerns regarding depletion of oil/gas reserves, etc. Retrofitting of diesel systems with hybrid wind-PV-diesel systems is being widely disseminated to reduce diesel fuel consumption and to minimize atmospheric degradation. One of the potential market for deployment of hybrid systems is in remote locations which are driven by diesel generators. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) has a number of remote villages scattered all over the Kingdom. The aim of this study is to analyze wind speed and solar radiation data of Rafha, KSA, and to assess the technical and economic potential of hybrid wind-PV-diesel power systems to meet the load requirements of a typical remote village Rawdhat Bin Habbas (RBH) with annual electrical energy demand of 15,943 MWh. Rafha is located near RBH. The monthly average wind speeds range from 2.99 m/s to 4.84 m/s at 10 m height. The monthly average daily global solar radiation ranges from 3.04 to 7.3 kWh/sq.m. The hybrid systems simulated consist of different combinations of 600 kW wind machines, PV panels, supplemented by diesel generators. National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewables (HOMER) software has been used to perform the techno-economic study. The simulation results indicate that for a hybrid system comprising of 1.2 MW wind farm capacity (two 600 kW units, 50 m hub-height) and 1.2 MW of PV capacity together with 4.5 MW diesel system (three 1.5 MW units), the renewable energy fraction with 0% annual capacity shortage is 24% (10% wind + 14% PV). The cost of generating energy (COE) from this hybrid wind-PV-diesel system has been found to be 0.118 $/kWh (“assuming diesel fuel price of 0.1$/l”). The study exhibits that for a given hybrid configuration, the number of operational hours of diesel generators decreases with increase in wind farm and PV capacity. Attention has also been focused on wind/PV penetration, unmet load, excess electricity generation, percentage of fuel savings and reduction in carbon emissions (relative to diesel-only situation) of different hybrid systems, cost breakdown of wind-PV-diesel systems, COE of different hybrid systems, etc.

Land Use and Land Cover Changes in a Tropical River Basin: A Case from Bharathapuzha River Basin, Southern India

A study of the spatial and temporal changes in land use and land cover (LULC) was conducted using Remote Sensing and GIS. We analyzed the LULC of Bharathapuzha river basin, south India using multispectral LANDSAT imageries of 1973-2005 time periods. 31% depletion in the natural vegetation cover and 8.7% depletion in wetland agriculture area were seen in the basin during the period. On the other hand the urban spread in the basin increased by 32%. The study highlights the need for a scientific management plan for the sustainability of the river basin, keeping in view the recent climatic anomalies and hydrological conditions of the basin.

Recent climate anomalies and their impact on snow chemistry at South Pole, 1987‐1994

Three 2‐m deep snowpits sampled at South Pole in 1994 provide detailed (2‐cm resolution) profiles of the concentrations of soluble ionic species for the period 1987–1994. The most prominent feature is a large concentration spike of SO4= in snow deposited in 1992 reflecting fallout from the eruptions of Pinatubo and Hudson in 1991. Concentrations of MSA and values of the MSA/(non‐sea‐salt SO4=) ratio are elevated for about three years centered on the prominent volcanic signal. These changes appear to be due to the extended 1991–1993 El Nino. The overlapping effects of the volcanic eruptions and El Nino circulation preclude partitioning the enhanced deposition of SO4= into volcanic and biogenic fractions. Nitrate concentration profiles show no relation to the severity of O3 depletion in the Antarctic stratosphere during the period of record. Rather, the profiles show a progressive decline of the annual peak concentrations over the top 0.5–1.0 m of each pit. This behavior is attributed to post‐deposition loss of NO3−, presumably by reemission of HNO3 into the atmosphere.

Evidence of recent climatic anomalies at Trieste (Italy)

A recent noticeable climatic anomaly in some meteomarine quantities is analysed based on observations during the period March 1, 1971-February 28, 1993 taken in Trieste (Italy). Marked deviations from the normal values of the coupled quantities ‘atmospheric pressure-solar irradiance’ and ‘atmospheric pressure-sea level elevation’, during the last 22 years, are analysed. The procedures used bring out a clear and persistent configuration of high pressure, high irradiance and low sea level from 1989 on, previously unmatched.

土地改変研究への環境地形学的アプローチ

In the land transformation studies geomorphology mainly deals with two aspects: i.e., direct transformation and induced geomorphic processes. This paper is concerned with the latter from the perspectives of climatic geomorphology. Climatic geomorphology that attaches importance to the following aspects constitutes the essential part of environmental geomorphology applicable to land transformation studies and environmental management:1) spatial variability in land conditions, 2) spatial variability in geomorphic processes characteristic of regional and local climatic conditions, 3) variability in space and time in climatic variables operating as geomorphic agents, and4) nature and resources of the land produced through the past climatic/environmental oscillations.Based on this framework, general tendencies and implications of accelerated erosion and man-induced land deterioration in Japan are summarized so as to formulate the spatial variability in the form and intensity of induced geomorphic processes under different climatic conditions. It becomes clear that the transformation of the land surface form and cover almost always results in the enhancement of geomorphic processes characteristic of regional and local climatic conditions. Combined effects of land transformation and climatic anomalies often cause geomorphic hazards due to rapid gullying, mass movements, etc. Examples of intensification of human impact on the land caused by recent climatic anomalies are reviewed briefly.The author hopes that the concepts of environmental geomorphology introduced here may shed a new light on the fields of civil engineering responsible for a better modification and the management of terrestrial environment. In Japan, the conception that most of land properties including soils are the product of the past climatic/environmental changes and hence a non-renewable resource has hitherto been very weak. The soildification of this conception requires a positive discussion among the related fields of Quaternary research.