Receipt Of New Information Research Articles

Accounting mechanism for information signals about the imposition of sanctions in valuation of a company

Investors have to review regularly their forecasts and stock value estimates taking into consideration the imposition of sanctions against Russian companies. Due to the presence of behavioral effects, as well as to the incorrect accounting of incoming information, the risk of obtaining inaccurate stock value estimates increases. In this regard, a mechanism should be developed for adequate update of stock value estimates upon receipt of new information signals about the imposition of sanctions. The study is based on such methods as analysis, synthesis, the longitudinal method, as well as the method of discounted cash flows. The study is based on the dynamics of financial indicators of stock returns of the 40 most marketable Russian companies. A mechanism is proposed for accounting the informational signals about sanctions, which makes it possible to avoid behavioral effects and update adequately the intrinsic stock value estimates upon receipt of new information on the imposition of sanctions. This mechanism makes it possible to consider both changes in expectations regarding cash flows and changes in the cost of capital for companies. At the same time, the research in this field should be continued in order to develop a methodology for equity capital valuation adjustment that will be instrumental in consideration of variance in bias and emergence of the so-called “thick tails” in the distribution of stock returns under receipt of information signals on the imposition of sanctions.

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Problems of forecasting of socio-political situation in the interest of mission performance by forces of the National Guard of Ukraine have been considered. The ways of optimization of forecasting in terms of decision-making process have been defined. The role of forecasting is not in specific problem solving by matching tasks with activities, but just in detection of the most important problems which society can face in future, probabilistic ways, terms and outcomes of their solving by different methods as well as assessment of efficiency of different options for their solving. Important role of forecasting is in significant reduction of the period of uncertainty, in outlining of realistic tasks and targets. Forecasting is also necessary because it is implemented on permanent basis due to receipt of new information and gives reasonable assessments of development of socio-political situation. The forecasting methods give opportunity to forecast the possible ways of development of socio-political situation basing on its internal and external connections. During decision-making process each command and control component of the National Guard of Ukraine wishes to obtain the most suitable and the best forecast considering it as a reliable one. And really, at first sight, the more accurate forecasting assessments to a real situation are, the more possibility to achieve the desired results in case of different equal conditions is.It is proved, that there is a connection between forecasting and management of decision-making process, which is in encouraging function of forecast. This function of forecasting effect has impacts on initial preconditions of forecasting. The forecasting effect can be both positive, so it precipitates forecasting process and negative, so hampers its implementation and even can cause self-destruction of a forecast sometimes. If forecast corresponds to the object’s development conditions that means its positive implementation. And vice versa, discrepancy in forecast to these conditions effects negatively on its implementation.

Information Asymmetry in Financial Markets: Challenges and Threats

The article analyzes the contradictions that have developed on the modern stock market. Markets are becoming more volatile, which creates conditions for manipulating prices on individual financial instruments. The institutional regulation does not solve these problems and, ultimately, is limited to an ineffective control over the markets by regulators and the search for new options for economic imbalances by economic agents. We introduce the terminology and justify the notion of «dominant economic agent». The emergence of dominant economic agents is viewed through the instability of the global financial system, through the access of this category of market participants to unique information technologies, when the opportunities to take advantage of information asymmetry give even greater volatility (variability), primarily, to the financial market and its instruments. Increased volatility attracts new economic agents to the financial market. The role of the dominant economic agents is only increasing. Such an unstable equilibrium develops on the market, when any competitive advantage from a local one can turn into a key one. We investigated the mutual influence and interpenetration of the postulates of the theory of effective financial (stock) markets and the theory of asymmetric information. The hypothesis of the research is based on expert assessments and the practice of financial instruments circulation. Furthermore, the hypothesis confirms that the levels of stock markets efficiency associated with the receipt of new information are erased due to the subjective behaviour of the dominant economic agents. It is not possible to prove that the actions of the dominant economic agents, through the high volatility of financial instruments and individual market segments, lead to the manipulation of the market within the framework of the existing regulatory standards. However, it is undeniable that an excessive volatility of certain financial assets creates problems for accelerating market transformations and institutional changes in the Russian economy. Under current conditions, we recommend solely passive asset management strategies, where fixed-income instruments are basic, and the investor does not need to track the dynamics of changes in their prices, and the effect of information asymmetry is minimized. We have proposed and justified a modern interpretation of investment risk. This interpretation suggests taking into account not only the market dominant, but also the behavioural component. This component is based on the psychology of the agent’s behaviour on the market, and also on the asymmetry of information on the financial markets that dominate economic agents. The results of the study have theoretical and practical significance and can be used both in the development and implementation of measures in the field of financial market regulation, as well as in analyzing the low activity of the population in the investment process.

Displaying Now-Understanding: The Finnish Change-of-State Token aa

This article discusses the use of the Finnish change-of-state token aa that has previously not been identified. The central claim is that even though aa indicates a cognitive shift experienced by the speaker, it does not function as a receipt of new information. Instead, the token aa indicates that the speaker understands here and now something relevant that conflicts with his or her previous assumptions or that was otherwise unclear. Indicating now-understanding becomes relevant when the speaker's prior misunderstanding gets corrected by the recipient and in situations where the speaker first fails to understand something and reveals it by initiating repair. This article demonstrates that claiming now-understanding with aa in these contexts functions as a sign of problem resolution that enables sequence closure and resumption of the main line of talk. The article also discusses the prosodic variation of the token aa. This study contributes to research on change-of-state tokens and their epistemics in different languages.

Associating Data in System of Systems Using Measures of Information

Many modern day collaborative systems/system of systems rely heavily on the sharing of information in order to improve performance, manage resources, and maximize overall capability. These types of systems are characterized by many decentralized nodes that can either all be identical or partitioned into a finite set of specialized types. When information is shared within any system of systems, the overall performance hinges on its ability to correctly associate the information received. The primary hypothesis evaluated by any system of systems after the receipt of new information is to determine whether this information belongs to a previously observed entity, or not. When this hypothesis is false, the new information belongs to a new entity, which includes both real and false entities. To evaluate this hypothesis, and to determine the optimal assignments to make at each time step, a data association discriminator or scoring function that performs like a distance function between two probability distributions with common support is defined. This paper defines the properties desired of a data association discriminator, highlights the measures of information that satisfy these properties, and develops the corresponding gating and scoring equations for use during the data association process. The most commonly employed gating and scoring function in the data association literature is the square of the Mahalanobis distance and the log-likelihood score function, which are only defined between two multivariate Gaussian distributions. One of the objectives of this paper is to demonstrate the superior characteristics of the data association discriminators presented herein when used in determining the optimal assignments as compared with the log-likelihood score function. Toward this end, and due to the prevalence of the multivariate Gaussian distribution function in the general entity tracking and information fusion literature, the closed-form equations for the data association discriminators based on the statistical divergences, along with the other measures of information, namely, entropy and mutual information, for multivariate Gaussian distributions will be presented. The architecture upon which a system of systems is developed and designed plays a fundamental role when selecting an appropriate association discriminator. This paper discusses various measures of information commonly used between and within the components of these types of systems and compares and contrasts their behavior in a common framework with a focus on the data association problem. Commonly used measures of information, namely, differential entropy, mutual information, and the statistical divergences, along with the log-likelihood score function are all examined analytically in a common mathematical framework, the advantages and disadvantages of each are discussed, new results are derived and presented, and several numerical examples based on synthetic data are presented that illuminate their behaviors and characteristics. Lastly, it is demonstrated that the Kullback–Leibler discriminator/divergence is not the best choice for use as a data association discriminator.

The process of symptom appraisal: Cognitive and emotional responses to detecting potentially malignant oral symptoms

Objective Following the self-discovery of symptoms of oral cancer, approximately 30% of patients wait for more than 3 months before seeking attention from a health care professional. Although symptom appraisal is known to be an important stage in the decision to seek help, little is known about the process of symptom appraisal. The aims of the current study were to produce a theory-guided investigation of the specific cognitive interpretations and emotional reactions to the self-discovery of potentially malignant oral symptoms and to gain understanding as to why these may change prior to help seeking. Methods In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted with 57 consecutive patients who had been referred with potentially malignant oral symptoms. Participants were asked about symptom detection, initial and subsequent beliefs about symptoms, and emotional responses prior to their first visit to a health care professional. The tape-recorded interviews were transcribed verbatim and analyzed using “framework analysis.” Results Patients often attributed the symptoms to transient, minor conditions such as mouth ulcers, physical trauma, or dental problems and, in turn were unconcerned about their presence. Patients infrequently attributed their symptoms to cancer. Origins of specific interpretations included previous experiences, specific symptomatology, logical associations with the perceived cause, and information from medical literature. Stimuli for reinterpretation included receipt of new information, symptom development, and persistence of symptoms. Conclusion This study has documented the process of symptom appraisal and indicates that an individual's interpretation of potentially malignant oral symptoms is often misguided.

Paycheque Receipt and the Timing of Consumption

This article examines the consumption response to monthly paycheque receipt. Since the amount and arrival date of paycheques are known in advance, the receipt of a paycheque does not coincide with the receipt of new information. Under the basic rational expectations Life-Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis, household consumption should not respond to paycheque arrival. Using data from the UK's Family Expenditure Survey, this article finds that household consumption is excessively sensitive to paycheque receipt. The results cannot be explained by any underlying monthly expenditure fluctuations common to all households. The presence of liquidity constraints as measured by wealth and age can account for the excess sensitivity results.

BSE in the UK: Why the Risk Communication Strategy Failed

The 2000 BSE Inquiry report points out that the most serious failure of the UK Government was one of risk communication. This paper argues that the government's failure to communicate the risks BSE posed to humans to a large degree can be traced back to a lack of transparency in the first risk assessment by the Southwood Working Party. This lack of transparency ensured that the working party's risk characterization and recommendations were ambiguous and thus hard to interpret. It also meant that uncertainties were not addressed in a satisfactory way. In the recommendations, the attitude to uncertainty was implicit rather than explicit. The risk communication based on the report amplified these flaws. Most importantly, it did not address the uncertainty at all. Apparently, the reason for this was fear of overreaction by the public. However, the result was counter-productive, because the risk communication did not then appear trustworthy. Later risk assessments and risk communication omitted to correct these flaws. Indeed, the fact that, following receipt of new information, advisory experts and policy makers had changed their views of the risk to humans was never clearly communicated to the public. There seemed to be little faith in the public's ability to reach a balanced judgment regarding the uncertainties. In the concluding section of the paper, this analysis is compared with the food standards agency's (FSA's) approach to BSE. The intervention of this agency was seen as one of the more important efforts to restore consumer confidence in British beef. And the agency certainly appears to be committed to openness and to addressing scientific uncertainty. However, using the risk of BSE in sheep as a case study, the paper shows that transparency – i.e., the clear presentation of factual and normative claims and assumptions underlying advice, and openness about the reasoning based on these claims and assumptions – is less than fully achieved in the FSA's work.

British Ornithologists’ Union Records Committee: 28th Report (October 2001)

British Ornithologists’ Union Records Committee: 28th Report (October 2001)

A knowledge representation based on the Belnap's four-valued logic

We treat knowledge from a computer-oriented point of view, considering it as a kind of data type. An axiomatic approach to the notion of data type undertaken by Dana Scott in [D.S.Scott, Outline of a Mathematical Theory of Computation, in: Proceedings of Princeton Conference on Information Science, 1971, pp. 169--176], is explored to find entities suitable for representation techniques. At the same time, we stay in Belnap''s paradigm of the toleration of inconsistency. We propose a representation of knowledge (possible with contradictions) in simple propositional language, and we show how such knowledge can be maintained and how it should be transformed on receipt of new information. In this transformation, the key role is played by Scott''s continuity rather than consistency.

When A Lie Becomes Memory's Truth: Memory Distortion After Exposure to Misinformation

ing is that after receipt of new infor mation that is misleading in some way, people make errors when they report what they saw. New, postevent information often be comes incorporated into a recollec tion, supplementing or altering it, sometimes in dramatic ways. New information invades us, like a Trojan horse, precisely because we do not detect its influence. Understanding how we become tricked by revised data about a witnessed event is a central goal of this research. Current research showing how memory can become skewed when people assimilate new data utilizes a simple paradigm. Participants first witness a complex event, such as a simulated violent crime or automo bile accident. Subsequently, half the participants receive new, mislead ing information about the event. The other half do not get any misinfor

Thematic memory for politics in children

This paper reports on an experiment designed to test the way (fourth grade) children congnitively process various kinds of information about politics. Our findings provide evidence that children integrate symbols from their immediate political environment into “themes.” These themes may then serve to organize their political knowledge and mediate receipt of new information. We did not find similar evidence of thematic integration for “adult” political symbols. These findings raise questions about the degree to which events in the adult political world will directly affect children's developing orientations toward that world.

Expectations and Interest Rates: A Cross-sectional Test of the Error-learning Hypothesis

Previous articleNext article No AccessExpectations and Interest Rates: A Cross-sectional Test of the Error-learning HypothesisBurton G. Malkiel, and Edward J. KaneBurton G. Malkiel Search for more articles by this author , and Edward J. Kane Search for more articles by this author PDFPDF PLUS Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditEmail SectionsMoreDetailsFiguresReferencesCited by Journal of Political Economy Volume 77, Number 4, Part 1Jul. - Aug., 1969Part 1 Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/259532 Views: 4Total views on this site Citations: 8Citations are reported from Crossref Copyright 1969 The University of ChicagoPDF download Crossref reports the following articles citing this article:Georges Prat, Remzi Uctum Term structure of interest rates: Modelling the risk premium using a two horizons framework, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 182 (Feb 2021): 421–436.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2019.09.006Georges Prat, Remzi Uctum Do markets learn to rationally expect US interest rates? An anchoring approach, Applied Economics 50, no.5959 (Jul 2018): 6458–6480.https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2018.1486024Burton G. Malkiel Term Structure of Interest Rates, (Feb 2018): 13550–13556.https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95189-5_1596Burton G. Malkiel Term Structure of Interest Rates, (Mar 2017): 1–7.https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5_1596-2Burton G. Malkiel Term Structure of Interest Rates, (Jan 1989): 265–270.https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-20213-3_30Burton G. Malkiel Term Structure of Interest Rates, (Nov 2016): 1–5.https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5_1596-1TERENCE C. LANGETIEG A Multivariate Model of the Term Structure*, The Journal of Finance 35, no.11 (Apr 2012): 71–97.https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1980.tb03472.xSteven W. Dobson, Richard C. Sutch, David E. Vanderford AN EVALUATION OF ALTERNATIVE EMPIRICAL MODELS OF THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES*, The Journal of Finance 31, no.44 (Apr 2012): 1035–1065.https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1976.tb01959.x