Reasonably Maximally Exposed Individual Research Articles

Expected dose and associated uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for all scenario classes in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. In support of this development and an associated license application to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the DOE completed an extensive performance assessment (PA) for the proposed YM repository in 2008. The conceptual structure and organization of the 2008 YM PA is based on decomposing the analysis into the following scenario classes: nominal, early waste package failure, early drip shield failure, igneous intrusive, igneous eruptive, seismic ground motion, and seismic fault displacement. This presentation describes how results obtained for the individual scenario classes are brought together in the determination of expected dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) specified by the NRC in the regulatory requirements for the YM repository and presents associated uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results. The following topics are addressed: (i) determination of expected dose to the RMEI from all scenario classes, (ii) expected dose and uncertainty in expected dose to the RMEI for 0 to 20,000yr, (iii) expected dose and uncertainty in expected dose to the RMEI from for 0 to 106yr, (iv) justification for the decomposition procedure used to estimate expected dose to the RMEI from all scenario classes, and (v) effectiveness of individual barrier systems in reducing releases from the repository and thus dose to the RMEI. The present article is part of a special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety devoted to the 2008 YM PA; additional articles in the issue describe other aspects of the 2008 YM PA.

Expected dose for the seismic scenario classes in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. In support of this development and an associated license application to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the DOE completed an extensive performance assessment (PA) for the proposed YM repository in 2008. This presentation describes the determination of expected dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) specified in the NRC regulations for the YM repository for the seismic ground motion scenario class and the seismic fault displacement scenario class in the 2008 YM PA. The following topics are addressed: (i) definition of the seismic scenario classes and the determination of dose and expected dose to the RMEI, (ii) properties of the seismic ground motion scenario class, (iii) expected dose and uncertainty in expected dose to the RMEI for the seismic ground motion scenario class from 0 to 20,000yr, (iv) expected dose and uncertainty in expected dose to the RMEI for the seismic ground motion scenario class from 0 to 106yr, (v) properties of the seismic fault displacement scenario class including expected dose and uncertainty in expected dose to the RMEI from 0 to 20,000yr and 0 to 106yr, (vi) expected dose and uncertainty in expected dose to the RMEI for the combined ground motion and seismic fault displacement scenario class, and (vii) probabilities associated with seismic scenario classes. The present article is part of a special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety devoted to the 2008 YM PA; additional articles in the issue describe other aspects of the 2008 YM PA.

Expected dose and associated uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for the human intrusion scenario in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. In support of this development and an associated license application to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the DOE completed an extensive performance assessment (PA) for the proposed YM repository in 2008. This presentation describes the determination of expected (mean) dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) specified in the NRC regulations for the YM repository resulting from an inadvertent drilling intrusion into the repository. The following topics are addressed: (i) assumed properties of an inadvertent drilling intrusion and the determination of the associated dose and expected (mean) dose to the RMEI, (ii) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for expected dose to the RMEI, and (iii) the numerical stability of the sampling-based procedure used to estimate expected (mean) dose to the RMEI. The present article is part of a special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety devoted to the 2008 YM PA; additional articles in the issue describe other aspects of the 2008 YM PA.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the igneous scenario classes in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. In support of this development and an associated license application to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the DOE completed an extensive performance assessment (PA) for the proposed YM repository in 2008. This presentation describes uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for the igneous intrusive scenario class and the igneous eruptive scenario class obtained in the 2008 YM PA. The following topics are addressed for the igneous intrusive scenario class: (i) engineered barrier system conditions, (ii) release results for the engineered barrier system, unsaturated zone, and saturated zone, (iii) dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) specified in the NRC regulations for the YM repository, and (iv) expected dose to the RMEI. In addition, expected dose to the RMEI for the igneous eruptive scenario class is also considered. The present article is part of a special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety devoted to the 2008 YM PA; additional articles in the issue describe other aspects of the 2008 YM PA.

Expected dose for the nominal scenario class in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. In support of this development and an associated license application to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the DOE completed an extensive performance assessment (PA) for the proposed YM repository in 2008. This presentation describes the determination of expected (mean) dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) specified in the NRC regulations for the YM repository for the nominal scenario class (i.e., under nominal or undisturbed conditions) in the 2008YM PA. The following topics are addressed: (i) properties of the nominal scenario class and the determination of dose and expected (mean) dose to the RMEI, (ii) uncertainty in dose and resultant expected (mean) dose to the RMEI, (iii) expected (mean) dose to the RMEI from individual radionuclides, and (iv) numerical stability of the sampling-based procedure used to estimate the expected (mean) dose to the RMEI. The present paper is part of a special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety devoted to the 2008YM PA; additional papers in the issue describe other aspects of the 2008YM PA.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the early failure scenario classes in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. In support of this development and an associated license application to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the DOE completed an extensive performance assessment (PA) for the proposed YM repository in 2008. This presentation describes uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for the early waste package failure scenario class and the early drip shield failure scenario class obtained in the 2008 YM PA. The following topics are addressed: (i) engineered barrier system conditions, (ii) release results for the engineered barrier system, unsaturated zone, and saturated zone, (iii) dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) specified in the NRC regulations for the YM repository, and (iv) expected dose to the RMEI. The present article is part of a special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety devoted to the 2008 YM PA; additional articles in the issue describe other aspects of the 2008 YM PA.

Expected dose for the early failure scenario classes in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. In support of this development and an associated license application to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the DOE completed an extensive performance assessment (PA) for the proposed YM repository in 2008. This presentation describes the determination of expected dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) specified in the NRC regulations for the YM repository for the early waste package (WP) failure scenario class and the early drip shield (DS) failure scenario class in the 2008 YM PA. The following topics are addressed: (i) properties of the early failure scenario classes and the determination of dose and expected dose the RMEI, (ii) expected dose and uncertainty in expected dose to the RMEI from the early WP failure scenario class, (iii) expected dose and uncertainty in expected dose to the RMEI from the early DS failure scenario class, (iv) expected dose and uncertainty in expected dose to the RMEI from the combined early WP and early DS failure scenario class with and without the inclusion of failures resulting from nominal processes, and (v) uncertainty in the occurrence of early failure scenario classes. The present article is part of a special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety devoted to the 2008 YM PA; additional articles in the issue describe other aspects of the 2008 YM PA.

Conceptual structure and computational organization of the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. This presentation describes the overall conceptual structure and computational organization of the 2008 performance assessment (PA) for the proposed YM repository carried out by the DOE in support of a licensing application to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The following topics are addressed: (i) regulatory background, (ii) the three basic entities underlying a PA, (iii) determination of expected, mean and median dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) specified in the NRC regulations for the YM repository, (iv) the relationship between probability, sets and scenario classes, (v) scenario classes and the characterization of aleatory uncertainty, (vi) scenario classes and the determination of expected dose to the RMEI, (vii) analysis decomposition, (viii) disjoint and nondisjoint scenario classes, (ix) scenario classes and the NRC’s YM review plan, (x) characterization of epistemic uncertainty, and (xi) adequacy of Latin hypercube sample size used in the propagation of epistemic uncertainty. This article is part of a special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety devoted to the 2008 YM PA and is intended as an introduction to following articles in the issue that provide additional analysis details and specific analysis results.

Expected dose for the igneous scenario classes in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. In support of this development and an associated license application to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the DOE completed an extensive performance assessment (PA) for the proposed YM repository in 2008. This presentation describes the determination of expected dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) specified in the NRC regulations for the YM repository for the igneous intrusive scenario class and the igneous eruptive scenario class in the 2008 YM PA. The following topics are addressed: (i) properties of the igneous scenario classes and the determination of dose and expected dose to the RMEI, (ii) expected dose and uncertainty in expected dose to the RMEI from the igneous intrusive scenario class, (iii) expected dose and uncertainty in expected dose to the RMEI from the igneous eruptive scenario class, (iv) expected dose and uncertainty in expected dose to the RMEI from the combined igneous intrusive and igneous eruptive scenario class, and (v) uncertainty in the occurrence of igneous scenario classes. The present article is part of a special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety devoted to the 2008 YM PA; additional articles in the issue describe other aspects of the 2008 YM PA.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the seismic scenario classes in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Extensive work has been carried out by the US Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. In support of this development and an associated license application to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the DOE completed an extensive performance assessment (PA) for the proposed YM repository in 2008. This presentation describes uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results for the seismic ground motion scenario class and the seismic fault displacement scenario class obtained in the 2008 YM PA. The following topics are addressed for the seismic ground motion scenario class: (i) engineered barrier system conditions; (ii) release results for the engineered barrier system, unsaturated zone, and saturated zone; (iii) dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) specified in the NRC regulations for the YM repository; and (iv) expected dose to the RMEI. In addition, expected dose to the RMEI for the seismic fault displacement scenario class is also considered. The present article is the part of a special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety devoted to the 2008 YM PA; additional articles in the issue describe other aspects of the 2008 YM PA.

Performance Assessment for Geological Disposal of Graphite Waste Containing TRISO Particles

This paper presents a deterministic performance assessment for spent fuel from deep-burn modular high-temperature reactors (DBMHRs) in the proposed Yucca Mountain repository. Typical DBMHR designs utilize fuel elements manufactured from graphite. The fuel itself is made of TRISO particles containing the fissile material. The performance of the DBMHR spent fuel (DBSF) was evaluated in terms of the annual dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) under various hydrogeological conditions. Part of this evaluation was an analysis of the graphite waste matrix and of the TRISO particles under repository conditions, the result of which indicates that the lifetime of the graphite matrix greatly exceeds that of the TRISO particles and that it is the graphite, not the TRISO particles, that serves to sequester the radionuclides within the fuel matrix. Under all 14 cases considered, DBSF is seen to comply with the annual dose standards set in Part 197 of Title 40 of the Code of Federal Regulations, for exposure via groundwater contamination under current climatic conditions. Parametric studies for the effect of waste matrix lifetime on annual dose received by the RMEI indicate that repository performance is sensitively linked to waste matrix durability because most radionuclides including actinides are likely to be released congruently with the graphite matrix.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. As part of this development, a detailed performance assessment (PA) for the YM repository was completed in 2008 and supported a license application by the DOE to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for the construction of the YM repository. The following aspects of the 2008 YM PA are described in this presentation: (i) conceptual structure and computational organization, (ii) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques in use, (iii) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for physical processes, and (iv) uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for expected dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) specified the NRC’s regulations for the YM repository.

Computational implementation of sampling-based approaches to the calculation of expected dose in performance assessments for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

A deep geologic repository for high-level radioactive waste is under development by the US Department of Energy (DOE) at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada. As mandated in the Energy Policy Act of 1992, the US Environmental Protection has promulgated public health and safety standards (i.e., 40 CFR Part 197) for the YM repository, and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has promulgated licensing standards (i.e., 10 CFR Parts 2, 19, 20, etc.) consistent with 40 CFR Part 197 that the DOE must establish are met in order for the YM repository to be licensed for operation. Important requirements in 40 CFR Part 197 and 10 CFR Parts 2, 19, 20, etc. relate to the determination of expected (i.e., mean) dose to a reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) and the incorporation of uncertainty into this determination. This paper is the second part of a two-part presentation on the determination of expected dose to the RMEI in the context of 40 CFR Part 197 and 10 CFR Parts 2, 19, 20, etc. The first part of this presentation is contained in the preceding paper, “Conceptual Basis for the Definition and Calculation of Expected Dose in Performance Assessments for the Proposed High-Level Radioactive Waste Repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada”, and describes how general and typically nonquantitative statements in 40 CFR Part 197 and 10 CFR Parts 2, 19, 20, etc. can be given a formal mathematical structure that facilitates both the calculation of expected dose to the RMEI and the appropriate separation in this calculation of aleatory uncertainty (i.e., randomness in the properties of future occurrences such as igneous and seismic events) and epistemic uncertainty (i.e., lack of knowledge about quantities that are poorly known but assumed to have constant values in the calculation of expected dose to the RMEI). The present paper describes and illustrates sampling-based procedures for the estimation of expected dose and the determination of the uncertainty in estimates for expected dose.

Conceptual basis for the definition and calculation of expected dose in performance assessments for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

A deep geologic repository for high-level radioactive waste is under development by the US Department of Energy (DOE) at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada. As mandated in the Energy Policy Act of 1992, the US Environmental Protection Agency has promulgated public health and safety standards (i.e., 40 CFR Part 197) for the YM repository, and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has promulgated licensing standards (i.e., 10 CFR Parts 2, 19, 20, etc.) consistent with 40 CFR Part 197 that the DOE must establish are met in order for the YM repository to be licensed for operation. Important requirements in 40 CFR Part 197 and 10 CFR Parts 2, 19, 20, etc. relate to the determination of expected (i.e., mean) dose to a reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) and the incorporation of uncertainty into this determination. This paper is the first part of a two-part presentation and describes how general and typically nonquantitative statements in 40 CFR Part 197 and 10 CFR Parts 2, 19, 20, etc. can be given a formal mathematical structure that facilitates both the calculation of expected dose to the RMEI and the appropriate separation in this calculation of aleatory uncertainty (i.e., randomness in the properties of future occurrences such as igneous and seismic events) and epistemic uncertainty (i.e., lack of knowledge about quantities that are imprecisely known but assumed to have constant values in the calculation of expected dose to the RMEI). The second part of this presentation is contained in the following paper, “Computational Implementation of Sampling-Based Approaches to the Calculation of Expected Dose in Performance Assessments for the Proposed High-Level Radioactive Waste Repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada,” and both describes and illustrates sampling-based procedures for the estimation of expected dose and the determination of the uncertainty in estimates for expected dose.

FACTORS AFFECTING DOSE ESTIMATES FOR LONG-TERM PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENTS: CASE STUDY???ARMAGOSA VALLEY

The purpose of this study was to review and evaluate some of the factors that influence the dose estimates to members of the public due to chronic, long-term releases of radioactive materials into the environment. Although the examples discussed are based on data from the Amargosa Valley located near the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level radioactive waste repository, the factors evaluated are common to any such assessment. While it is recognized that such factors include those related to both the environmental transport of radionuclides from the point of release through the environmental media to the receptor, and the influence of his/her location and living habits, the assessments that follow are primarily limited to the latter. The specific goal in all cases was to illustrate how the assumptions and input values relative to certain factors influence the dose estimates and to quantify, to the extent possible, their relative significance. At the same time, it must be recognized that the assessments presented here were limited to doses due to the ingestion of food and water; those due to the inhalation of airborne radionuclides and external exposures were not considered. The factor that proved most important from the standpoint of the overestimation of doses (i.e., conservatism) was the implementation of the regulatory requirements pertaining to the withdrawal of groundwater from the local aquifer. Another significant source of conservatism was the dose estimates provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, assuming that the Reasonably Maximally Exposed Individual (RMEI) resided at the U.S. EPA designated site, 18 km from the repository, vs. the Amargosa Valley, about 35 km away. Also important, for selected radionuclides, was the impact of their effective half-lives on the committed doses, as estimated, in comparison to those that would actually be received. Having lesser impacts were the status of a local aquaculture farm on the intake of C, and the intake of stable iodine on dose estimates for I. On the basis of these evaluations, one can reasonably conclude that the overall conservatism in the dose assessments, based on these sources that were identified, approaches an order of magnitude. The sole factor that led to an underestimation of the doses (i.e., non-conservatism) was the regulatory requirement that the concept of the RMEI, as defined by U.S. EPA, in contrast to that of the Critical Group (CG), as recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection, be applied in estimating the doses to potentially affected population groups. Rather than dwell on the differences in the impacts of the application of each of these two concepts, the next step should be to subject each concept to a systematic and rigorous analysis, the goal being to gain an understanding of the range of dose estimates that would be yielded, the underlying reasons for the differences that are observed, and the lessons to be learned in terms of improving the methodologies for estimating doses due to environmental radionuclide releases.