Reasonable Certainty Research Articles

The Implementation of the Food Quality Protection Act (FQPA) in Increasing the Safety Standards for New Pesticides Used on Foods

This paper examines the Food Quality Protection Act (FQPA) and its impact on enhancing safety standards for pesticides used on food in the United States. Initially, the study explores the Delaney Clause—a strict standard prohibiting carcinogenic food additives—which FQPA replaced with a more flexible "reasonable certainty of no harm" criterion. This shift allows the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to assess pesticide risk with consideration of potential benefits, even if a substance is carcinogenic at high doses. The paper also critiques the EPA's implementation challenges, including reliance on quantitative risk assessment (QRA) and cumulative risk assessment, which quantify risks of multiple chemical exposures but face informational and regulatory limitations. Recommendations focus on refining judicial review and integrating cumulative risk assessment to strengthen the FQPA’s capacity to safeguard public health, especially for vulnerable populations such as children. This study underscores the importance of regulatory clarity and rigorous assessment methods in pesticide management.

Standard of proof ‘beyond reasonable doubt’ in criminal proceedings: analysis of national and international experience

It is stated that, according to the standard of proof beyond a reasonable doubt, if there is proof beyond a reasonable doubt of the defendant’s guilt, it is sufficient for a conviction, and it is also undisputed that such a reasonable doubt must be evaluated according to the evidentiary difficulties of the particular case, as well as according to the crime committed. . The standard of proof beyond a reasonable doubt is the most acceptable standard in criminal proceedings for a fair trial. At the same time, indicating the need for courts to use this standard of proof, the legislator does not define its concept and does not reveal its meaning. Reasonable doubt is a frequently used term that is probably well understood but difficult to define. It is not merely a possible doubt, as everything related to human activity that depends on evidence that gives rise to moral certainty is subject to some possible or imaginary doubt. Reasonable doubt, then, deals with a state of affairs that leaves the judge’s mind in such a state that he cannot say that he feels a firm conviction that gives rise to moral certainty about the truth sought. If there is a reasonable doubt as to the proof of guilt, the accused is entitled to the benefit of the presumption of innocence and to be acquitted. Thus, evidence must establish the truth of the facts in a way that produces reasonable or moral certainty, that is, a certainty that convinces, guides understanding and satisfies the minds and judgements of judges. This, he concludes, is what counts as proof beyond a reasonable doubt. The adoption of the standard of proof beyond a reasonable doubt reflects the high degree of probability required to develop the personal certainty (conviction) necessary for the purposes of conviction in criminal proceedings (guilt beyond a reasonable doubt), ultimately if there is sufficient evidence of a criminal act, and not, it should be emphasised, complete, total or absolute proof. The article examines the legal positions of the Criminal Court of Cassation as part of the Supreme Court and the European Court of Human Rights with regard to determining the content of the standard of proof ‘beyond reasonable doubt’ in criminal proceedings. In the doctrine of criminal procedure, the concept and content of the standard of proof ‘beyond reasonable doubt’ is the subject of considerable attention of procedural scholars.

Sequential H/D Exchanges Resulting from Rollover-Cyclometallation during Photoirradiation of Rhodium(III) Complex in Methanol-d4.

We present the photoreaction of newly prepared bis(6,6'-dimethyl-2,2'-bipyridine)(oxalato)rhodium(III) ([Rh(N^N)2(ox)]+) in CD3OD. Photoirradiation of this complex causes the dissociation of ox, followed by the formation of the unprecedented Rh(III) complex with Rh-H and Rh-C s bonds, [Rh(N^N)(C^N)(H)(CD3OD)]+ (C^N = [6,6'-dimethyl-2,2'-bipyridine]-3-yl-κC3,κN1'). This hydride formation and cyclometallation spontaneously proceed owing to the conflict between the steric hindrance arising from the methyl groups of N^N and the driving force for the structural change due to [Rh(N^N)2]+ formation. Although [Rh(N^N)(C^N)(H)(CD3OD)]+ is initially converted to [Rh(N^N)2]+ by photoirradiation, it is immediately regenerated by the rollover cyclometallation of the [Rh(N^N)2]+ complex. [Rh(N^N)(C^N)(H)(CD3OD)]+ undergoes H/D exchange for the H atoms in the Rh-H bond and at the 3, 3'-positions of the N^N ligand during the photoirradiation. DFT calculations predict with reasonable certainty the spontaneous structural change of [Rh(N^N)2]+ to [Rh(N^N)(C^N)(H)(CD3OD)]+ and the subsequent photodriven Rh-C bond rupture leading to the formation of [Rh(N^N)2]+ accompanied by H/D exchange reactions.

The relative nature of the standards for proof of safety: a review of FDA's safety standards for various consumer products.

Are all food ingredients, dietary supplement ingredients and even foods, required to meet the same safety standards? Are they all equally safe? If so, then why do the various categories have different expressions describing their safety, such as "reasonable certainty of no harm" for food ingredients and "reasonable expectation of no harm" for dietary supplement ingredients? The basis for these different expressions is that they are not standards of safety, but standards of proof of safety. Just as in criminal vs. civil courts, the threshold for proving guilt or fault is different, so too are there differences between various categories of consumer products regulated by the US Food and Drug Administration. This manuscript describes the threshold requirements for each standard, as well as to the identity of the decision makers on what is safe, their credentials as decision makers and the databases mandated for their use.

Residual Axillary Metastases in Node-Positive Breast Cancer Patients After Neoadjuvant Treatment: A Register-Based Study

BackgroundLymph node (LN) metastasis after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) generally warrants axillary lymph node dissection, which opposes guidelines of upfront surgery in many cases. We investigated the risk of having additional metastases in the axilla when the LNs removed by targeted axillary dissection (TAD) harbored metastases after NACT. We aimed to identify subgroups suitable for de-escalated axillary treatment.MethodsThis register-based study used data from the Danish Breast Cancer Cooperative Group database. Data were analyzed with logistic regression models. The primary outcome was the metastatic burden in non-TAD LNs in patients with positive TAD LNs after NACT.ResultsAmong 383 patients, < 66.6% positive TAD LNs (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.34, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.17–0.62), only isolated tumor cells (ITCs) [OR 0.11, 95% CI < 0.01–0.82], and breast pathological complete response (pCR) [OR 0.07, 95% CI < 0.01–0.56] were associated with a low risk of having more than three positive non-TAD LNs. In 315 patients with fewer than three positive non-TAD LNs, the proportion of positive TAD LNs (OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.27–0.76 for 33.3–66.6% vs. > 66.6%), size of the TAD LN metastasis (OR 0.14, 95% CI 0.04–0.54 for ITC vs. macrometastasis), tumor size at diagnosis (OR 0.30, 95% CI 0.15–0.64 for 20–49 mm vs. ≥ 50 mm) and breast pCR (OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.15–0.96) were associated with residual LN metastases in the axilla.ConclusionsBreast pCR or ITC only in TAD LNs can, with reasonable certainty, preclude more than three positive non-TAD LNs. Additionally, patients with only ITCs in the TAD LN had a low risk of having any non-TAD LN metastases after NACT. De-escalated axillary treatment may be considered in both subgroups.

Negative dielectric constant and multi-visible photolumenses emissions of Cd(1-x)CoxO nanocomposites with (0.00 ≤ x ≤ 1.00)

We report the photolumenses (PL) and dielectric measurements of Cd(1-x)CoxO nanocomposites with (0.00 ≤ x ≤ 1.00). It is found that an increase in x correlates with a significant change in crystallite size, particle size, porosity, Debye temperature, Young's modulus, q-factor, binding energy, impedance of grains and their boundaries. The samples with x = 0.50 or 0.60 show an adverse change in the behavior of these parameters. We could not evaluate any shift in the wave length of PL emissions, although they are different in intensities. The samples of x = 0.40 and 1.00 show more visible emission colors at 640, 678, 716, and 791 nm. The x = 0.00 sample shows a negative dielectric constant (ε\\), but it crossovers to positive for the other values of x. ε\\ was gradually decreased as frequency increased up to 10 KHz, after which it nearly saturated except x = 0.80, in which it linearly decreased and never saturated. The ac conductivity decreased gradually against x such that the type of conduction is dependent on the chosen x. The Cole-Cole plot shows a straight line for x = 0.00 and arcs for x = 0.20 and 0.60, and a complete semicircular for x = 0.40, 0.50, 0.80 and 1.00. Furthermore, the effective capacitance was 9260 μF for x = 0.00, but it drops to 0.013 μF for x = 0.40, whereas the vice is true for bulk resistance. These results lend a reasonable certainty to the assertion that Co substitutes for Cd and make them potential prospects for devices such as diodes that emit light, cathode-luminescence displays, integrated circuits, Li-battery and supercapacitors.

An economic appraisal of the SE(C)AP public interventions towards the EU 2050 target: The case study of Basilicata region

Since 2008, among the European initiatives related to energy efficiency, the Covenant of the Mayors (CoM) has been one of the most important because of the significant engagement of small municipalities. The scope of the study is to understand how adherence to the EU CoM initiative by the municipalities has affected their expenditures in supporting and developing public energy efficiency investments, focusing on the analysis of the SEAPs. Two research questions are posed: firstly, exploring which are the main fields of intervention where municipalities have oriented their action plans on energy efficiency, published in SEAP (these being public lighting, education, and public buildings); secondly, the investment expenditure related to these fields of intervention that result from the first analysis and which are increased after SEAPs approval. The sample consists of 81 SEAPs evaluated and approved by the Joint Research Centre of the EU Commission of the Italian Basilicata municipalities in 2008–2021. The main result is that the education sector exhibits significant incremental changes in investment expenditures for each period, considering that, with reasonable certainty, this depends also on the CoM initiative.

Tutt la tosse in una figura

Cough is the most common cause of unscheduled paediatric visits. The figure in the article shows the main causes of paediatric coughs differentiated by duration, quality (dry or wet) and night-time coughing. With these few simple key anamnestic elements (and espe- cially if confirmed and reinforced by being able to see, even in a simple video, the child coughing) a diagnosis may be made with reasonable certainty, saving specialist visits and diagnostic tests that are unlikely useful and potentially harmful.

A vertebra of a small species of Pachycetus from the North Sea and its inner structure and vascularity compared with other basilosaurid vertebrae from the same site.

In the Western Scheldt Estuary near the Belgian-Dutch border, middle to late Eocene strata crop out at the current seafloor. Most vertebrae of large Eocene basilosaurid taxa from this area were previously described in several papers. They represent three morphotypes: elongated vertebrae of a large species of Pachycetus (Morphotype 1b), a not-elongated vertebra of a large 'dorudontid' basilosaurid (Morphotype 2) and 'shortened' vertebrae of a new, unnamed taxon (Morphotype 3). This article deals with a still undescribed, smaller vertebra, NMR-16642, from this site. Our first aim was to date it by dinoflagellate cysts in adhering sediments. Yielding an age of about 38 Ma, it is one of the very few remains of basilosaurids from Europe, of which the age could be assessed with reasonable certainty. The vertebra, Morphotype 1a, is assigned to a small species of Pachycetus. High-quality CT scans are used to differentiate between NMR-16642, Morphotype 1a, and the large species of Pachycetus, Morphotype 1b. Another aim of this paper is to investigate the inner structure and vascularity of the study vertebra and that of the other morphotypes (1b, 2, 3) from this area by using high-quality CT scans. Notwithstanding differences in size, shape and compactness, the vertebral inner structure with a multi-layered cortex of periosteal bone, surrounding two cones of endosteal bone appears to be basically similar in all morphotypes. Apparently, this inner structure reflects the ontogenetic vertebral growth. An attempt to reconstruct the vascularity of the vertebrae reveals a remarkable pattern of interconnected vascular systems. From the dorsal and, if present, ventral foramina, vascular canals are running to a central vascular node. From this node a system of vascular canals goes to the epiphyseal ends, giving rise to separate systems for cortex and cones. It is the first time that the vascularity of vertebrae of archaeocetes is investigated.

Reliable Technologies Combine To Establish Reasonable Certainty for Reserves Estimates

_ This article, written by JPT Technology Editor Chris Carpenter, contains highlights of paper SPE 210358, “Establishing Reasonable Certainty for Reserves Estimates by Using a Combination of Reliable Technologies,” by Keshav Narayanan, SPE, Peter Gale, SPE, and J.P. Blangy, SPE, Woodside Energy, et al. The paper has not been peer reviewed. The Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS) and many regulatory agencies require what is termed “reasonable certainty” for Proved Reserves estimates. The guidance provided by the PRMS or the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for establishing reasonable certainty is general in nature because of the difficulty in explicitly describing all possible scenarios and also allows leeway to use new technologies in the future. The complete paper addresses the complex challenge of establishing reasonable certainty in reserves and resource assessments and discusses how multiple reliable technologies may be used in concert to establish reasonable certainty for reserves estimates through the flexibility provided by the PRMS. Introduction The authors write that a common response to many questions seeking clarification on reserves-related matters is that “it depends.” Likewise, regarding the question of what constitutes reliable technology, the answer depends on the specific circumstances and the data being considered. The use of reliable technology as a method to improve certainty in the estimates of oil and gas reserves was formally recognized in the 2008 modernization of oil and gas reporting. The PRMS issued in 2007 and further updated in 2018 also recognized the use of appropriate technologies that can lead to more-reliable estimates of reserves. However, the SEC or the PRMS guidelines also seem to recognize that it might not be possible to prescribe a definitive approach that could work for any set of circumstances. They broadly describe the framework for what constitutes reliable technology and how it can be used to establish reasonable certainty. Operators have an obligation to use a scientific method to build a robust case to justify categorization of volumes. Previous Research Previous work reviewed how the industry, in the years from 2008 to 2016, had been using reliable technologies for reserves estimates and how industry practitioners were demonstrating and describing that these applications were consistent with the SEC and PRMS guidelines. The material surveyed by previous researchers can be grouped into the following broad themes: - Seismic applications, which establish water contacts downdip of well controls and explore how seismic amplitude processes can be relied on to improve probability of geologic success - Dynamic simulations, which investigate when reasonable certainty can be demonstrated when simulation models are used - Unconventional applications, which include how reasonable certainty should be established when booking proved, undeveloped reserves (PUD) away from well control - SEC comment letters, which can require registrant companies to more-clearly spell out the demonstration of reasonable certainty - Applications of multiple reliable technologies increase confidence in free-water level determined by use of pressure data or seismic amplitude shutoffs, seal-capacity analysis, well logs, pressure data, and seismic to support proved reserves estimates

Technology Focus: Reserves Management (December 2023)

Time and time again, I meet industry specialists who should have a detailed knowledge of the Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS) and handling uncertainty in the inputs for resource assessment or to the rest of the evaluation work flow. Often, however, the understanding of PRMS basics, application, or reporting seems to be lacking. This year’s Reserves Management papers are chosen to revisit some basics around both reserves delineation and asset management. Paper SPE 210358 reminds evaluators to use multiple approaches (triangulation?) in the presence of uncertainty to derive the best estimates for Proved Reserves, but this should apply equally to all resource assessment. It also stresses the requirement, sometimes overlooked, to ensure that the approach/technology is proven and calibrated to work in the exact situation, both subsurface and surface. Uncertainty is inherent in our business, though difficult to communicate, and we should do all we can to incorporate it correctly. Also looking at the effect of uncertainty, paper SPE 213385 focuses on Monte Carlo simulation for commercialization around well performance in unconventional settings, but its application can be to any technical or commercial uncertainty. Too many people overly focus on precision (the decimal places in the answer) but lose focus on accuracy or usefulness of the work. Uncertainty can lead to errors in the first, and certainly the second, significant figure, thus invalidating all the misleading precision. Analysis should model the parameters to include the true state of knowledge. It seems ever more difficult to avoid discussions of carbon capture and storage (CCS), a major challenge facing the industry, especially when trying to monetize massive high-CO2 fields. Paper SPE 214359 discusses how the Malaysian authorities and Petronas seek to manage and incentivize CCS in their domain and achieve socially desirable goals with improved efficiency—specifically, centralizing the disposal of CO2 through an organization taking the separated gas from the producers. It creates efficiencies through scale and targeted regulatory incentives that do not need to be applied to the direct producers. It reminds me of how liquefied natural gas facilities often are commercially separated from the upstream to manage project financing and improve project feasibility. The recommended additional reading papers delve further into PRMS disclosure details and implications; how allocating volumes (and costs) for incremental decisions can change the optimal outcome; some more around how volumes and costs flow through to economics and how this can be an issue in complex fields; and, lastly, an unusual proposal of uncertainty around the 1P, 2P, and 3P values. Certainly, they remind the reader to consider the effect of uncertainty on volumetrics and categorization. Recommended additional reading at OnePetro: www.onepetro.org. SPE 209695 Can Reasonable Certainty Be Assessed From Disclosed Proved Reserves Revisions? by Enrique Morales, ISVA Oil and Gas Consultancy, et al. SPE 211458 An Algorithm for Calculating Incremental Production in an Integrated Asset Model by Peter Richard Paul Cunningham, Serafim, et al. SPE 212826 Impact of Financial Assumptions on Economic Viability of Incremental Projects by M.A. Mian, O&amp;G Knowledge Sharing Platform SPE 209217 Probabilistic Reserves Categorization Using Percentiles of a Single Probability Distribution by M.A. Mian, O&amp;G Knowledge Sharing Platform

Management of enterprise carbon emissions data falsification considering government regulation and media monitoring

The accuracy of carbon emission data is essential for various disciplines to maintain reasonable expectations and certainty regarding the carbon emission rights trading market. However, the management of carbon emission data quality faces many challenges, especially due to the harmful behavior of enterprises that falsify such data, which seriously disrupts the order and credibility of the carbon market. Currently, few studies focus on the behavior and mechanism of corporate carbon emission data fraud, which requires an in-depth stakeholder analysis to obtain theoretical and empirical support for the formulation of effective regulatory policies. To investigate the influence of government regulation and media monitoring on addressing enterprise carbon emission data falsification, as well as to analyze the game behaviors and equilibrium outcomes among the government, media, and enterprises under different policy combinations and market environments, this study develops an evolutionary game model incorporating the government, media, and enterprises as three key stakeholders. Furthermore, numerical simulations are conducted for empirical validation. The key findings of this research highlight the significant impact of government regulation and media monitoring on deterring enterprise carbon emission data falsification, thus effectively reducing falsification motives and behaviors and enhancing the quality of carbon emission data. Additionally, the game between the government, media, and enterprises reveals the existence of multiple evolutionary stable strategies. Of these, the optimal strategy is the comprehensive implementation of all three elements: government regulation, media monitoring, and corporate integrity disclosure. This paper comprehensively examines the influence of government regulation and media monitoring on enterprise carbon emission data falsification and addresses the gaps in existing research. Moreover, it provides theoretical guidance and policy recommendations for establishing a high-quality carbon market.

UTI in Primary Care: Are we Prescribing Too Much?

Objectives: The aim of this article were to review usefulness of early clinical detection of UTI without lab tests as diagnostic tool for UTI in primary care and to describe when to start antibiotic treatment for management of UTI according to international guidelines. The emphasis of this review is uncomplicated UTI. Methods: A search was conducted on PubMed and official webpages of major urological, infectious diseases and general practice organisations to identify peer reviewed original articles and reviews, using the search terms ‘UTI’. I considered only papers written in English, with emphasis on more recent articles published up to July 2023. Results: There is a variation in recommendations between guidelines can be a source of confusion and controversy for clinicians in primary care. However, early detection and treatment, education of patients and removal of risk factors may reduce the number of symptomatic episodes, antibiotics usage and antimicrobial resistance in primary care. Conclusion: The diagnosis of acute uncomplicated cystitis in healthy women can be made with reasonable certainty by evaluation of symptoms and signs without a doctor’s visit or urine tests. Individualised assessment of risk factors and previous clinical history is needed to choose the most suitable antimicrobial treatment. Immediate antimicrobial therapy with Trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (160/800 mg twice daily for 3 days), Nitrofurantoin (100 mg twice daily for 5-7 days), or Fosfomycin (3g in a single dose) is indicated for acute cystitis in adult women. However, local guidelines advice that immediate antibiotic treatment was not considered necessary for women with uncomplicated lower UTI. Antimicrobial resistance have complicated treatment of UTI worldwide.

Constipation and hemolytic uremic syndrome.

Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) classically presents with diarrhea. Absence of diarrheal prodrome increases suspicion for atypical HUS (aHUS). Inability to obtain a fecal specimen for culture or culture-independent testing limits the ability to differentiate STEC-HUS and aHUS. Our patient presented with abdominal pain and constipation, and evaluation of pallor led to a diagnosis of HUS. There was a complete absence of diarrhea during the disease course. Lack of fecal specimen for several days delayed testing for STEC. Treatment for atypical HUS was initiated with complement-blockade therapy. PCR-testing for Shiga toxin from fecal specimen later returned positive. Alternative complement-pathway testing did not identify a causative genetic variant or anti-Factor H antibody. A diagnosis of STEC-HUS was assigned, and complement-blockade therapy was stopped. Diagnosis of aHUS remains a diagnosis of exclusion, whereby other causes of HUS are eliminated with reasonable certainty. Exclusion of STEC is necessary and relies on testing availability and recognition of testing limitations. Diarrhea-negative STEC-HUS remains a minority of cases, and future research is needed to explore the clinical characteristics of these patients.

#3652 ACUTE KIDNEY INJURY (AKI) IN CANCER PATIENTS TREATED WITH COMBO THERAPIES: CHEMOTHERAPY, OR IMMUNOTHERAPY, THAT IS THE QUESTION

Abstract Background and Aims Lung cancer is the second most common malignancy in men and the third in women and approximately 85% of all cases are constituted by non-small cell carcinoma (NSCLC). In recent years, the introduction of immune checkpoint inhibitors and molecular targeted therapies, as monotherapy or in association with chemotherapy, has revolutionized the treatment of NSCLS. Pembrolizumab in association with pemetrexed and carboplatin, for instance, has been approved as first-line treatment for non-squamous NSCLC. Nephrotoxic side effects of both old and new therapies continue to be a substantial adverse event (AE) and could preclude effective oncological treatment. When a patient in combined oncological therapy develops AKI it is not always easy to establish which drug is responsible of the AE. The objective of our study was to develop a diagnostic algorithm to help the clinician to diagnose and manage AKI in patient treated with pembrolizumab + pemetrexed +/- carboplatin. Method We performed a retrospective multicentric data collection. We analyzed data about all the patient referred to the onconephrology outpatient clinic due to AKI (Stage 2 or higher) during oncological treatment with pembrolizumab + pemetrexed +/- carboplatin, from 2020 to 2022. AKI stages were identified according to KDIGO guidelines and CTCAE 5.0. We focused on the following data: chemical-physical urinalysis, urinary electrolytes, serum electrolytes, kidney function (AKI progression and trend of renal function after oncological drug discontinuation). Results A cohort of 89 patients was analyzed: 54 males (61%) and 35 females (39%), with an average age of 69 years (51-76). The main comorbidities were hypertension (76%), diabetes mellitus (36%), CKD (64%) and cardiovascular diseases (26%). Overall, 11 patients (12%) had a non drug-related AKI, 90% of which due to pre-renal causes. 43 patients developed immune-related AKI; among these 23 pts had sterile pyuria and/or WBC casts, 35 pts had other organ IrAEs, 32 pts had AKI progression upon discontinuation of oncological therapy, and 37 pts had an increase in serum creatinine ≥1 mg/dl between two consecutive pretherapy blood tests. Chemotherapy-induced nephrotoxicity occurred in 35 patients and had the following features: hypo K or hypo Mg in 9 pts, increased urinary electrolytes in 16 pts, stable renal function after oncological drugs discontinuation in 32 pts and an increase in serum creatinine ≤0,5 mg/dl between two consecutive pretherapy blood tests in 27 pts. Characteristics of drug-related AKI are summarized in Table 1. Conclusion One of the main challenges with patients on multiple cancer therapies who develop AKI is to identify the possible drug responsible for the nephrotoxicity to avoid unnecessary suspension of one or more oncological drugs. Although the most frequently suggested approach is the execution of the renal biopsy, it is not always possible to perform it in a short time due to difficulties in organizing the diagnostic procedure and the time necessary for the histological analysis. Furthermore, Oncological Guideline recommend starting steroid therapy as soon as the Grade ≥2 immune related AEs develop. The above retrospective results shed light on the main characteristic of AKI due to immunotherapy or chemotherapy; the information obtained helped us to develop a diagnostic algorithm that addresses the clinician in identifying with reasonable certainty the cause of AKI without the need to perform a renal biopsy (Figure 1).

Proved Reserves Revisions: How Reliable Are They?

Summary This paper incorporates the findings of our previous publication (Morales and Lee 2022) and identifies, isolates, and quantifies elements in the annually disclosed proved reserves revisions that should not be considered technical or economic revisions. This has resulted in significantly different technical and economic revisions compared to those simplistically and directly derived using a common interpretation of the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) Topic 932-235-50-5 (a) definition. We have assessed the reliability and comparability of the updated technical revisions when used to judge the reasonable certainty of the underlying proved reserves. We have carried out the analysis separating the proved reserves into developed and undeveloped. To derive a realistic data set to generate the updated technical and economic revisions, we reviewed more than 1,000 annual reports (10K and 20F Forms) and more than 600 comment letters from 141 companies filing annual reports to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) during the period 2010–2020, extracting the information related to annual reserves changes and explicitly focusing on the disclosed revisions of previous estimates (RPE). We present evidence showing that the approach followed is robust and more reliable than the simple approach where technical revisions are estimated by simply subtracting the disclosed revisions due to price effects from the disclosed revisions in annual reports. The root causes for the significant differences between the simplistic approach and the one presented in this paper are mainly due to (1) including annual reserves changes due to nontechnical or economic factors as technical revisions, (2) using different interpretations of SEC and FASB regulations, and (3) not providing critical disaggregation information needed to estimate technical, economic, or other types of revisions correctly. Without proper consideration of these issues, the derived technical and economic revisions from disclosed data can be significantly distorted, affecting any conclusions derived. The annual average changes in technical revisions during a representative period, if correctly estimated, can provide an indication of both overstated and understated certainty of proved reserves estimates, which can impact a company’s relative valuation, asset impairment, internal depreciation, profit/loss, standardized measure, unit development costs, and other indicators based on proved reserves, making the reliability of the technical revisions and their actual upward or downward movements of paramount importance. We also highlight the significant different root causes driving the major differences between developed and undeveloped reserves in their annual technical revisions. The results indicate that for some companies that provide most of the information required for proper analysis, the certainty level of their disclosed developed and undeveloped proved reserves points toward an apparent overestimation of historically disclosed proved reserves. Our analysis shows the dubious quality and lack of reliability and comparability of the disclosed proved reserves revisions and highlights the limited value of existing guidance and current practices. We provide evidence that calls for FASB and SEC to provide complementary guidance in critical areas that currently limit the value, reliability, and comparability of the proved reserves revisions disclosed.

A probabilistic approach to provenance studies using whole object elemental composition: Chert (flint) as a case study

Provenancing archeological artefacts and “whole rock” fragments, such as cobbles and pebbles, is important both for studying past societies and reconstructing geomorphological and sedimentary processes. Determining the provenance of archaeological artefacts, for example, is helpful in the study of various aspects of human society such as mobility, trade routes, raw material procurement strategies and societal development, whereas whole rock fragments are useful indicators of sediment transportation routes and landscape evolution. In this paper, we introduce a novel probabilistic approach for exploring the limitations and potential of provenance studies utilizing trace element composition of archaeological artefacts and bulk rock fragments through a set of statistical analyses, demonstrated using a dataset of chert (flint) samples from the eastern Mediterranean as a case study. Because our general goal is to identify sediment provenance at the highest possible resolution, and attribute it to specific outcrops, the robustness of such classifications must consider the inherent variability of the studied samples, which poses a complex problem when an entire suite of elements is considered.In the current study, a scheme for evaluating the possible resolution and potential of provenance studies of flint artefacts is illustrated by applying a set of statistical techniques. The data is investigated across the different labelling hierarchy using Spearman correlation and the Kruskal-Wallis test, and a synthetic dataset that follows the statistical properties of the original data is generated using multidimensional copulas that mimic the correlation of the different elements within each subset. The synthetic dataset is then iteratively sampled, filtered and passed into a classifier that is evaluated using a set of classification metrics (e.g., accuracy, recall, etc.). Using this probabilistic approach, the power of supervised classification is determined for the different hierarchy levels and classes based on their distributions, and the number of specimens required for distinguishing sources at different levels (e.g., era, age, formation and site) is evaluated. We show that 10–20 specimens are needed to determine the geological era and age of the strata from which flint was collected with reasonable certainty (accuracy >0.9), whereas specific outcrops cannot be reliably identified even when a large number of specimens are considered. This approach has the potential to enable the classification of items of unknown origin and the associated uncertainty by comparing them against a dataset of possible sources that can be expanded over time.

Probable at First Glance, but Unlikely After Closer Look: The Role of Cognitive Reflection Ability on the Assessment of Probabilistic Expressions

Synopsis Research problem We investigate whether accountants’ cognitive reflection ability affects how they assess the probabilistic numerical thresholds of the probabilistic expressions probable, remote, virtually certain, and reasonable certainty in the context of international financial reporting standards. Theoretical reasoning In the psychology literature, impulsivity is associated with aggressive behavior, and reflective individuals are more prone than impulsive individuals to access slow and effortful (Type 2) reasoning in order to overcome the initial response provided by fast and impulsive (Type 1) reasoning. Considering that accounting conservatism requires a higher degree of verification to recognize events that increase rather than decrease net assets, we argue that impulsivity is associated with aggressive accounting and reflectivity is associated with a conservative interpretation of probabilistic expressions. Test hypothesis Reflective accountants are more conservative than their impulsive peers when making numerical assessments of probabilistic expressions associated with accruing or disclosing an event. Target population Accounting professionals, including preparers, auditors, and tax analysts. Adopted methodology We collected data from 569 accounting professionals using a survey questionnaire, in partnership with the Brazilian Accountants Association (Conselho Federal de Contabilidade, or CFC), a federal agency with the mandate of guiding, regulating, and supervising the accounting profession in Brazil, to assess professionals’ cognitive reflection ability, collect their demographic characteristics, and evaluate their assignment of numerical values to probabilistic expressions. Analyses We employed [Formula: see text]-tests, median tests, and standard deviation tests; we also conducted several robustness tests that replicated our main results. Findings Our results confirm that reflective accountants are more conservative in their probability assessments than their impulsive peers. Our findings have three main implications. First, standard-setters could avoid the use of or develop guidance about terms with low communication efficiency. Second, analysts and standard-setters should consider that the comparability of accounting information across firms depends on the preparers’ cognitive reflection ability. Third, we present an additional explanation (accountants’ cognitive reflection ability) for accounting conservatism and differences in the interpretation of uncertainty expressions.

Business Valuation Cases in Brief

Business Valuation Cases in Brief

3D geostatistical modelling of a tailings storage facility: Resource potential and environmental implications

The management of mine tailings presents a global challenge. Re-mining of tailings to recover remaining metals and other valuable constituents could play a crucial role in reducing the volume of stored tailings. To assess the resource potential of tailings storage facilities, 3D resource models must be constructed. This is not straightforward owing to the heterogeneous nature of tailings. In this case study, modelling of the Davidschacht tailings deposit was performed using universal sequential Gaussian simulation, to account for the strong trends and heterogeneity in chemical distribution. The tonnages of the valuable elements were estimated with reasonable certainty, confirming that relatively few drill holes are required for robust resource estimates of tailings storage facilities. Zinc is the most abundant valuable metal (∼5,170±517 t), followed by Pb (∼2,060±206 t), Cu (∼550±66 t) and In (∼11±1 t), while the toxic elements As and Cd are present in tonnages of ∼8,350±585 t and ∼47±4 t, respectively, with errors given for 95 % confidence levels. Despite the In tonnage being low compared to the other elements, its in situ value is around half that of Cu and Pb, demonstrating the importance of high value by-products for re-mining potential. Although tailings deposits typically have lower grades than primary ore deposits, and the quantities of recoverable valuable elements may be even lower due to current technological limitations, re-mining of TSFs may help to diversify raw materials supply chains and should also be considered for rehabilitation purposes. Geostatistical modelling, particularly universal kriging-based simulation, has been proven to produce robust tonnage estimates of tailings storage facilities and should be adopted in industry to reduce the technical and financial uncertainties associated with re-mining.