Rear-flank Downdraft Research Articles

The Effects of Spatial Interpolation on a Novel, Dual-Doppler 3D Wind Retrieval Technique

Abstract Three-dimensional wind retrievals from ground-based Doppler radars have played an important role in meteorological research and nowcasting over the past four decades. However, in recent years, the proliferation of open-source software and increased demands from applications such as convective parameterizations in numerical weather prediction models has led to a renewed interest in these analyses. In this study, we analyze how a major, yet often-overlooked, error source effects the quality of retrieved 3D wind fields. Namely, we investigate the effects of spatial interpolation, and show how the common practice of pregridding radial velocity data can degrade the accuracy of the results. Alternatively, we show that assimilating radar data directly at their observation locations improves the retrieval of important dynamic features such as the rear flank downdraft and mesocyclone within supercells, while also reducing errors in vertical vorticity, horizontal divergence, and all three velocity components. Significance Statement We can attempt to estimate the wind speed and direction within a weather system when two weather radars measure it simultaneously. However, radars do not scan the whole atmosphere at once—instead, they measure along many cross sections, each at different heights. We show that a method commonly used to stitch the observations together degrades the accuracy of the winds. Additionally, we describe a way to feed the data directly into the analysis without stitching it together first, and show that this improves the wind retrievals considerably. We hope these improvements will help researchers better understand how various weather systems work, and help forecasters warn for dangerous weather such as tornadoes.

Polarimetric Radar Observations of a Long-Lived Supercell and Associated Tornadoes on 10–11 December 2021

Abstract We present environmental and polarimetric radar observations of a long-lived December supercell that tracked approximately 750 km from Arkansas to northern Kentucky. The storm was associated with two long-track EF4 tornadoes, one of which was among the longest-tracked tornadoes recorded in the United States. The supercell’s life cycle is documented from 2000 UTC 10 to 0700 UTC 11 December 2021, using data from five operational polarimetric weather radars. After convection initiation in central Arkansas, it took nearly 4 h for a supercell to develop. Afterward, the storm’s ZDR column and arc became anomalously large leading up to genesis of the first EF4 tornado. During this time, the storm’s environment had moderate convective available potential energy (CAPE) and strong deep-layer shear. A cell interaction at about 0200 UTC disrupted the supercell updraft, weakening the ZDR arc and column, and initiating the largest radar-implied hailfall event observed with this storm. The remnant circulation associated with the first EF4 tornado did not fully dissipate, and it appeared to merge with the low-level mesocyclone on the nose of a rear-flank downdraft surge likely initiated by the hailfall. It is hypothesized that this merger was important to the intensification of the storm’s second EF4 tornado, which lasted nearly 3 h and traveled approximately 267 km. During the second EF4 tornado the storm experienced decreasing CAPE and increasing storm relative helicity. Increasing interactions with other cells eventually weakened the storm, and its original updraft was obscured before the storm’s remnants dissipated in northern Kentucky. Significance Statement In December 2021, a long-lived supercell thunderstorm produced two long-track, violent tornadoes, including one that produced historic damage across western Kentucky. Radar observations indicate that, once the storm became a supercell, its updraft became anomalously large relative to similar storms studied prior. Simultaneously its storm-relative inflow strengthened markedly, supporting the first long-lived tornado. Interactions with a developing thunderstorm disrupted the supercell’s updraft, leading to hail fallout and updraft weakening. The remnant circulation associated with the first strong tornado merged with the supercell’s updraft and became a rotation source for the second long-track tornado, which persisted for nearly 3 h. Eventually interactions with other thunderstorms weakened the supercell.

Dynamical Analyses of a Supercell Tornado in Eastern China Based on a Real-Data Simulation

Tornadoes are extremely destructive natural disasters, and East China has become a high-incidence area for tornadoes in China in recent years. On 7 July 2013, an EF2-intensity tornado occurred in Gaoyou County, Jiangsu Province in eastern China, within a supercell storm near a Meiyu frontal system. To investigate the dynamical process of the tornado, a numerical simulation was performed using four one-way nested grids within the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS). Data from a nearby operational S-band Doppler radar are assimilated using a 4D ensemble Kalman filter (4DEnKF) at 5 min intervals. Forecasts are run with a nested 50 m grid, capturing the tornado embedded within the supercell storm with a reasonable agreement with observations. The tornadogenesis processes within the simulation results are analyzed in detail, including the three-dimensional evolution of the tornado vortex. It is found that a cold surge within the rear flank downdraft region plays a key role in instigating tornadogenesis when the leading edge of the cold surge approaches a near-ground convergence center located underneath the main updraft, and the enhancement of the convergence center caused by the descending of the low-level mesocyclone is the direct cause of the rapid increase in tornado vorticity. Backward trajectories are calculated based on model output, and the origins of the parcels feeding the intensifying tornado vortex are identified. It is found that parcels from the mid-level of the rear flank downdraft region follow the cold surge, descending to the ground under the influence of the downdraft in the cold surge, and then entering the convergence center, merging into the core of the tornado and being lifted up. Vertical profiles of the mass and vorticity fluxes into the core of the tornado vortex are examined, and it is found that the near-ground airflow contributes significantly to the growth of the tornado vorticity, with the contribution increasing as it gets closer to the ground.

Trailing Horizontal Vortices in Observed and Numerically Simulated Tornadoes

Abstract High-resolution numerical simulations of supercell storms reveal complex distributions of vorticity in the vicinity of tornadoes, especially when visualized in three dimensions. As in the simulations, quasi-horizontal vortices (HVs) are occasionally observed near tornadoes, as condensation tubes wrapping around the tornadoes. In this study, visual observations of a violent tornado and visualizations of a high-resolution simulation based on the same tornado case are combined to document distinct HV structures, which trail the tornado very close to the ground toward its right flank (with respect to the tornado’s forward motion), hereafter referred to as “trailing HVs.” The analysis shows that trailing HVs are larger and stronger than HVs typically observed around tornadoes. Still, their sense of rotation matches that of other documented HVs, which is consistent with vorticity generation by surface drag and/or baroclinic torques along internal boundaries of relatively warm rear-flank downdrafts. Interestingly, trailing HVs may display smaller spiral vortices circulating their periphery, which can evolve into more complex structures. Visualizations of three-dimensional vorticity show that the trailing HVs are organized through entanglement of large and small HVs along nearby rear-flank internal boundaries. The internal boundaries also serve as focus for along-boundary stretching of vorticity that becomes mostly streamwise at the location of the trailing HV, resulting in HV strengthening. The spiral vortices are associated with the same entangling processes responsible for the parent (larger) trailing HV structure. Moreover, the analysis suggests that trailing HVs may reinforce the surface wind speeds on the right flank of the tornado.

Integrated damage, visual, remote sensing, and environmental analysis of a strong tornado in southern Brazil

On 20 April 2015 a strong tornado struck the city of Xanxerê located in western Santa Catarina (SC) state, in southern Brazil. The tornado destroyed several buildings, causing almost 100 injuries, four fatalities, and R$ 104 million in damage (approximately USD$ 34.6 million according to 2015 dollar quotation), making it one of the most damaging tornadoes in Brazil's history. This study provides an integrated damage, visual, remote sensing, and environmental analysis of the tornado event. Medium-resolution satellite imagery and in situ photographs of the damage show that the tornado caused high-end F2 damage on the Fujita scale across a 4.9-km-long path in the northern portion of Xanxerê. Videos of the tornado and its parent storm reveal the existence of a low-level mesocyclone and rear-flank downdraft, indicating that the storm was a supercell. Horizontal vortices, which are occasionally observed in strong tornadoes but rarely documented in Brazilian tornadoes, were also observed in the videos. The supercell developed in a warm and moist air mass characterized by moderate buoyancy and weak mid-level lapse rates. The mid- and upper-tropospheric forcing for synoptic-scale ascent was weak but the prevailing zonal flow was moderately strong, providing sufficient deep-layer shear for supercell development. A key component of the synoptic-scale environment was the presence of a northerly low-level jet stream that promoted warm moist advection into western SC in addition to increasing the low-level vertical wind shear in the region. On the mesoscale, the presence of a broad cloud shield from a decaying mesoscale convective system (MCS) preceding the supercell formation hampered daytime radiative heating over western SC resulting in low dewpoint depression and, thus, lower lifting condensation levels around Xanxerê. Remote sensing and surface data suggest that the MCS-induced outflow boundary may have been responsible for the initiation of the supercell. The complex subtropical environment of the Xanxerê tornado differs in many aspects from well-documented North American tornadic environments and highlights the need for more studies addressing distinctions between the atmospheric conditions that are conducive to tornadic activity in the two continents.

Frequency Domain Analysis of Alongwind Response and Study of Wind Loads for Transmission Tower Subjected to Downbursts

Downburst is one of the high-intensity winds that cause transmission tower failures. The regulations of transmission tower-line systems under downburst wind loads cannot meet the design requirements at present. In this paper, the calculation formulas of the background and resonant components of transmission tower under downburst wind loads are obtained, based on the modal analysis theory of non-stationary wind for the single-degree-of-freedom system in the frequency domain. The effects of structural dynamic characteristics, damping ratio, and mean wind speed vertical profile on dynamic effect on structural response are discussed. Then the equivalent static wind load (ESWL) is obtained according to the maximum response and compared with the finite element method (FEM) in the time domain. Applications of these formulas are addressed to the cases from the empirical model of Holmes and field record of a rear flank downdraft (RFD). The results show that the maximum responses obtained by the current formulas match well with those from the modal decomposition method and dynamic analysis with FEM. The internal forces of tower members calculated by ESWL based on maximum response are closer to the results from FEM than those calculated by downburst loads recommended in ASCE guidelines. The presented framework can be used to assist the wind-resistant design of transmission towers considering downburst wind load.

Operational Uses of Spectrum Width

Spectrum width is a WSR-88D product that has been available to operational forecasters since the radar was deployed. In 2008, super-high-resolution reflectivity, velocity and spectrum width data became available. Six cases exemplifying operational use of spectrum width are presented; five are from after the upgrade. The cases were selected to depict the wide array of uses of spectrum width (SW). In one case, use of SW improved forecaster capability to evaluate the strength of horizontal shear within a bow echo’s mesovortex. One case shows that SW can be extremely helpful in determining location of boundaries, which aids in overall situational awareness. In another case, SW aided forecaster confidence to issue a tornado warning with lead time. If a storm is close to the radar (55 km in this example), SW can be used to clarify the location of the rear flank downdraft, assess where its wind damage may be a threat, and discern subsequent cutoff of the tornado from the warm, moist inflow. Finally, when used in a derecho case, SW helped a forecaster to identify more quickly where wind damage threats were likely.

Precipitation Properties of Supercell Hook Echoes

Recent studies have suggested that thermodynamic properties of supercell rear-flank downdrafts (RFDs) can affect whether or not tornadogenesis occurs. The thermodynamic characteristics of RFDs are determined in part by microphysical processes such as evaporation of raindrops and melting of hailstones. Whereas in situ measurements of hook-echo particle size distributions (PSDs) are exceedingly rare, polarimetric radars can be used to determine the bulk characteristics of these PSDs remotely. A preliminary analysis of polarimetric radar data from a small sample of supercell hook echoes reveals unusual drop size distributions compared to typical rainfall in Oklahoma, as well as spatially inhomogeneous structures. The inner edge of the hook echo is often characterized by low or moderate reflectivity factor at horizontal polarization (ZH), with very high differential reflectivity factor (ZDR), indicating a sparse population of very large drops. The southern and/or western (back) portion of the hook is characterized by moderate to high ZH and rather low ZDR, indicating a surplus of small drops and/or a lack of larger drops. Hypotheses explaining the unusual drop size distributions are presented. Additionally, the time evolution of these characteristics is explored using data collected with a special rapid scanning strategy.

Observed Bulk Hook Echo Drop Size Distribution Evolution in Supercell Tornadogenesis and Tornadogenesis Failure

AbstractThe time preceding supercell tornadogenesis and tornadogenesis “failure” has been studied extensively to identify differing attributes related to tornado production or lack thereof. Studies from the Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment (VORTEX) found that air in the rear-flank downdraft (RFD) regions of non- and weakly tornadic supercells had different near-surface thermodynamic characteristics than that in strongly tornadic supercells. Subsequently, it was proposed that microphysical processes are likely to have an impact on the resulting thermodynamics of the near-surface RFD region. One way to view proxies to microphysical features, namely drop size distributions (DSDs), is through use of polarimetric radar data. Studies from the second VORTEX used data from dual-polarization radars to provide evidence of different DSDs in the hook echoes of tornadic and non-tornadic supercells. However, radar-based studies during these projects were limited to a small number of cases preventing result generalizations. This study compiles 68 tornadic and 62 non-tornadic supercells using Weather Surveillance Radar–1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data to analyze changes in polarimetric radar variables leading up to, and at, tornadogenesis and tornadogenesis failure. Case types generally did not show notable hook echo differences in variables between sets, but did show spatial hook echo quadrant DSD differences. Consistent with past studies, differential radar reflectivity factor (ZDR) generally decreased leading up to tornadogenesis and tornadogenesis failure; in both sets, estimated total number concentration increased during the same times. Relationships between DSDs and the near-storm environment, and implications of results for nowcasting tornadogenesis, also are discussed.

Multi-Radar Analysis of the 20 May 2013 Moore, Oklahoma Supercell through Tornadogenesis and Intensification

A multi-radar analysis of the 20 May 2013 Moore, Oklahoma, U.S. supercell is presented using three Weather Surveillance Radars 1988 Doppler (WSR-88Ds) and PX-1000, a rapid-scan, polarimetric, X-band radar, with a focus on the period between 1930 and 2008 UTC, encompassing supercell maturation through rapid tornado intensification. Owing to the 20-s temporal resolution of PX-1000, a detailed radar analysis of the hook echo is performed on (1) the microphysical characteristics through a hydrometeor classification algorithm (HCA)—inter-compared between X- and S-band for performance evaluation—including a hail and debris class and (2) kinematic properties of the low-level mesocyclone (LLM) assessed through ΔVr analyses. Four transient intensifications in ΔVr prior to tornadogenesis are documented and found to be associated with two prevalent internal rear-flank downdraft (RFD) momentum surges, the latter surge coincident with tornadogenesis. The momentum surges are marked by a rapidly advancing reflectivity (ZH) gradient traversing around the LLM, descending reflectivity cores (DRCs), a drop in differential reflectivity (ZDR) due to the advection of smaller drops into the hook echo, a decrease in correlation coefficient (ρhv), and the detection of debris from the HCA. Additionally, volumetric analyses of ZDR and specific differential phase (KDP) signatures show general diffusivity of the ZDR arc even after tornadogenesis in contrast with explosive deepening of the KDP foot downshear of the updraft. Similarly, while the vertical extent of the ZDR and KDP columns decrease leading up to tornadogenesis, the phasing of these signatures are offset after tornadogenesis, with the ZDR column deepening the lagging of KDP.

Convective rear-flank downdraft as driver for meteotsunami along English Channel and North Sea coasts 28–29 May 2017

We examine the physical processes that led to the meteotsunami observed along the English Channel and North Sea coasts on 29 May 2017. It was most notably reported along the Dutch coast, but also observed on tide gauges from the Channel Islands to the coast of Germany, and also those in eastern England. From an assessment of multiple observations, including rain radar, LIDAR, satellite, surface observations and radiosonde reports we conclude that the event was driven by a rear flank downdraft in association with a mesoscale convective system (MCS). This downdraft, from a medium level or elevated MCS, led to a hydrostatically forced internal or ducted gravity wave below the MCS. The gravity wave was manifested by a marked rise and fall in pressure, a meso-high, which then interacted with the sea surface through Proudman resonance causing a measured wave of close to 0.9 m in amplitude, and an estimated wave run-up on Dutch beaches of 2 m. Through examination of existing research, we show that the basic assumptions here relating to the formation of the Dutch meteotsunami are consistent with previously described physical processes, and confirm the correlation between the speed of the ocean wave and medium level steering winds. This raises the possibility that high-resolution, coupled, weather-ocean numerical weather prediction (NWP) models can be utilised to predict future events. However, deterministic high-resolution NWP models still struggle with modelling convective systems with sufficient precision because of the chaotic nature of the atmosphere and incomplete observations. A way forward is proposed here to improve forecasting through post-processing of NWP model output by overlaying medium level wind fields with ocean bathymetry.

Rapid-Scan and Polarimetric Radar Observations of the Dissipation of a Violent Tornado on 9 May 2016 near Sulphur, Oklahoma

Abstract Rapid-scan polarimetric data analysis of the dissipation of a likely violent supercell tornado that struck near Sulphur, Oklahoma, on 9 May 2016 is presented. The Rapid X-band Polarimetric Radar was used to obtain data of the tornado at the end of its mature phase and during its entire dissipation phase. The analysis is presented in two parts: dissipation characteristics of the tornadic vortex signature (TVS) associated with the tornado and storm-scale polarimetric features that may be related to processes contributing to tornado dissipation. The TVS exhibited near-surface radial velocities exceeding 100 m s−1 multiple times at the end of its mature phase, and then underwent a two-phased dissipation. Initially, decreases in near-surface intensity occurred rapidly over a ~5-min period followed by a slower decline in intensity that lasted an additional ~12 min. The dissipation of the TVS in time and height in the lowest 2 km above radar level and oscillatory storm-relative motion of the TVS also are discussed. Using polarimetric data, a well-defined low reflectivity ribbon is investigated for its vertical development, evolution, and relationship to the large tornadic debris signature (TDS) collocated with the TVS. The progression of the TDS during dissipation also is discussed with a focus on the presence of several bands of reduced copolar correlation coefficient that extend away from the main TDS and the eventual erosion of the TDS as the tornado dissipated. Finally, TVS and polarimetric data are combined to argue for the importance of a possible internal rear-flank downdraft momentum surge in contributing to the initial rapid dissipation of the tornado.

Numerical Study of the 6 May 2012 Tsukuba Supercell Tornado: Vorticity Sources Responsible for Tornadogenesis

AbstractRemarkable progress has been achieved in understanding the vorticity source responsible for tornadogenesis. Nevertheless, the answer to this question remains elusive, particularly after introducing surface friction in realistic tornado simulations. In this study, a simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is conducted based on the F3 supercell tornado that hit Tsukuba City, Japan, on 6 May 2012. The simulation uses triply nested domains, and the tornado is successfully reproduced in the innermost domain with 50-m horizontal grid spacing. The circulation analyses reveal that the frictional term is the dominant vorticity source responsible for the vortices at both the pretornadic and tornadogenesis times. The detailed vorticity source analyses of the air parcels show that the vorticity of the tornado at the genesis time mainly originates from the frictionally generated crosswise vorticity near the ground. The crosswise vorticity is directly tilted (or first exchanged into streamwise vorticity and then tilted) into vertical vorticity when the air parcels enter the tornado. A rear-flank downdraft (RFD) surge from the south and west sides of a primary low-level mesocyclone (LMC) may trigger tornadogenesis by increasing the convergence near the ground. The RFD surge is not necessarily associated with the baroclinically generated vorticity. In this study, the baroclinity is weak across the hook echo, which may cause a lack of baroclinically generated vorticity in the RFD surge.

Horizontal Vortex Tubes near a Simulated Tornado: Three-Dimensional Structure and Kinematics

Supercell thunderstorms can produce a wide spectrum of vortical structures, ranging from midlevel mesocyclones to small-scale suction vortices within tornadoes. A less documented class of vortices are horizontally-oriented vortex tubes near and/or wrapping about tornadoes, that are observed either visually or in high-resolution Doppler radar data. In this study, an idealized numerical simulation of a tornadic supercell at 100 m grid spacing is used to analyze the three-dimensional (3D) structure and kinematics of horizontal vortices (HVs) that interact with a simulated tornado. Visualizations based on direct volume rendering aided by visual observations of HVs in a real tornado reveal the existence of a complex distribution of 3D vortex tubes surrounding the tornadic flow throughout the simulation. A distinct class of HVs originates in two key regions at the surface: around the base of the tornado and in the rear-flank downdraft (RFD) outflow and are believed to have been generated via surface friction in regions of strong horizontal near-surface wind. HVs around the tornado are produced in the tornado outer circulation and rise abruptly in its periphery, assuming a variety of complex shapes, while HVs to the south-southeast of the tornado, within the RFD outflow, ascend gradually in the updraft.

Development and Deployment of Air-Launched Drifters from Small UAS.

Supercell thunderstorms can form extremely dangerous and destructive tornadoes. While high fidelity supercell simulations have increased the understanding of supercell mechanics to help determine how and when tornadoes form, there is a lack of targeted, in situ measurements taken aboveground in supercells to validate these simulations. Pseudo-Lagrangian drifters (PLDs) are atmospheric probes that can be used to attain thermodynamic measurements in areas that are difficult or dangerous to access, such as from within supercells. Of particular interest in understanding tornadogenesis is the rear-flank downdraft (RFD). However, strong outflow winds behind the rear-flank gust front (RFGF) make the RFD particularly difficult to access with balloon-borne sensors launched from the ground. A specific type of PLD, an air-launched drifter (ALD) that is released from unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), can be used to access RFD inflows, present at higher altitudes. Results from initial tests of ALDs are shown, along with results from a ground-released PLD test during a supercell intercept in the Oklahoma Panhandle on 12 June 2018. In characterization tests performed at the 2018 International Society for Atmospheric Research using Remotely piloted Aircraft (ISARRA) flight week, it was found that the ALD sensor system performs reasonably well against industry standards. However, improvements will be made to increase the aspiration of the sensor.

Three-Dimensional Storm Structure and Low-Level Boundaries at Different Stages of Cyclic Mesocyclone Evolution in a High-Precipitation Tornadic Supercell

Nearly continuous wind retrievals every three minutes for an unprecedented 90-minute period were constructed during multiple mesocyclone cycles in a tornadic high-precipitation supercell. Asymptotic contraction rate analysis revealed the relationship between the primary and secondary rear-flank gust fronts (RFGF and SRFGFs) and the rear-flank downdraft (RFD) and occlusion downdrafts. This is thought to be the first radar-based analysis where the relationship between the near-surface gust fronts and their parent downdrafts has been explored for sequential mesocyclones. Changes in the SRFGFs were associated with surges in the RFD. During part of the mesocyclone lifecycle, the SRFGF produced a band of low-level convergence and associated deep updraft along the southwestern side of the hook echo region that ingested the RFD outflow and limited both entrainment into the RFD and reinforcement of low-level convergence along the leading edge of the primary RFGF. The second mesocyclone intensified from stretching in an occlusion updraft rather than in the primary updraft. This low-level mesocyclone remained well separated from the updraft shear region vorticity that was associated with a more traditional midlevel mesocyclone. However, the third mesocyclone initiated in the vorticity-rich region of the primary updraft zone and was amplified by stretching in the primary updraft.

Applications of Vortex Gas Models to Tornadogenesis and Maintenance

Processes related to the production of vorticity in the forward and rear flank downdrafts and their interaction with the boundary layer are thought to play a role in tornadogenesis. We argue that an inverse energy cascade is a plausible mechanism for tornadogenesis and tornado maintenance and provides supporting evidence which is both numerical and observational. We apply a three-dimensional vortex gas model to supercritical vortices produced at the surface boundary layer possibly due to interactions of vortices brought to the surface by the rear flank downdraft and also to those related to the forward flank downdraft. Two-dimensional and three-dimensional vortex gas models are discussed, and the three-dimensional vortex gas model of Chorin, developed further by Flandoli and Gubinelli, is proposed as a model for intense small-scale subvortices found in tornadoes and in recent numerical studies by Orf et al. In this paper, the smaller scales are represented by intense, supercritical vortices, which transfer energy to the larger-scale tornadic flows (inverse energy cascade). We address the formation of these vortices as a result of the interaction of the flow with the surface and a boundary layer.

A numerical study of back-building process in a quasistationary rainband with extreme rainfall over northern Taiwan during 11–12 June 2012

Abstract. During 11–12 June 2012, quasistationary linear mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) developed near northern Taiwan and produced extreme rainfall up to 510 mm and severe flooding in Taipei. In the midst of background forcing of low-level convergence, the back-building (BB) process in these MCSs contributed to the extreme rainfall and thus is investigated using a cloud-resolving model in the case study here. Specifically, as the cold pool mechanism is not responsible for the triggering of new BB cells in this subtropical event during the meiyu season, we seek answers to the question why the location about 15–30 km upstream from the old cell is still often more favorable for new cell initiation than other places in the MCS. With a horizontal grid size of 1.5 km, the linear MCS and the BB process in this case are successfully reproduced, and the latter is found to be influenced more by the thermodynamic and less by dynamic effects based on a detailed analysis of convective-scale pressure perturbations. During initiation in a background with convective instability and near-surface convergence, new cells are associated with positive (negative) buoyancy below (above) due to latent heating (adiabatic cooling), which represents a gradual destabilization. At the beginning, the new development is close to the old convection, which provides stronger warming below and additional cooling at mid-levels from evaporation of condensates in the downdraft at the rear flank, thus yielding a more rapid destabilization. This enhanced upward decrease in buoyancy at low levels eventually creates an upward perturbation pressure gradient force to drive further development along with the positive buoyancy itself. After the new cell has gained sufficient strength, the old cell's rear-flank downdraft also acts to separate the new cell to about 20 km upstream. Therefore, the advantages of the location in the BB process can be explained even without the lifting at the leading edge of the cold outflow.

A Numerical Study of the 6 May 2012 Tsukuba City Supercell Tornado. Part II: Mechanisms of Tornadogenesis

In Part I, the vorticity sources of midlevel and low-level mesocyclones in the 6 May 2012 Tsukuba City, Japan, tornadic supercell were investigated by using high-resolution simulation results with a 50-m horizontal grid spacing. In Part II, the analyses are extended to the mechanisms of tornadogenesis. The tornado was generated at the leading edge of a rear-flank downdraft (RFD) outflow surge. Backward-trajectory and vortex line analyses revealed that the RFD outflow surge was a triggering factor for tornadogenesis and that horizontal vorticity around the strong RFD outflow region was ingested into the tornado. To identify the vorticity source of the tornado, the evolution of circulation along a material circuit surrounding the tornado was investigated. Owing to baroclinity at the tip of a hook-shaped distribution of hydrometeors (hereafter hook echo), the circulation increased rapidly from a negative value when the core of the hydrometeors was descending, about 10 min prior to tornadogenesis. Analysis of the buoyancy field as well as a sensitivity experiment without diabatic cooling showed that baroclinity associated with cooling due to evaporation of rain and melting of ice-phase hydrometeors around the tip of the hook echo was the dominant vorticity source responsible for tornadogenesis.

An Investigation of the Goshen County, Wyoming, Tornadic Supercell of 5 June 2009 Using EnKF Assimilation of Mobile Mesonet and Radar Observations Collected during VORTEX2. Part II: Mesocyclone-Scale Processes Affecting Tornado Formation, Maintenance, and Decay

Storm-scale and mesocyclone-scale processes occurring contemporaneously with a tornado in the Goshen County, Wyoming, supercell observed on 5 June 2009 during the second Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment (VORTEX2) are examined using ensemble analyses produced by assimilating mobile radar and in situ observations into a high-resolution convection-resolving model. This paper focuses on understanding the evolution of the vertical structure of the storm, the outflow buoyancy, and processes affecting the vertical vorticity and circulation within the mesocyclone that correspond to changes in observed tornado intensity. Tornadogenesis occurs when the low-level mesocyclone is least negatively buoyant relative to the environment, possesses its largest circulation, and is collocated with the largest azimuthally averaged convergence during the analysis period. The average buoyancy, circulation, and convergence within the near-surface mesocyclone (on spatial scales resolved by the model) all decrease as the tornado intensifies and matures. The tornado and its parent low-level mesocyclone both dissipate surrounded by a weakening rear-flank downdraft. The decreasing buoyancy of parcels within the low-level mesocyclone may partly be responsible for the weakening of the updraft surrounding the tornado and decoupling of the mid- and low-level circulation. Although the supply of horizontal vorticity generated in the forward flank of the storm increases throughout the life cycle of the tornado, it is presumably less easily tilted and stretched on the mesocyclone-scale during tornado maturity owing to the disruption of the low-level updraft/downdraft structure. Changes in radar-measured tornado intensity lag those of ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) mesocyclone vorticity and circulation.