Realized Kernel Research Articles

Efficient asymptotic variance reduction when estimating volatility in high frequency data

This paper shows how to carry out efficient asymptotic variance reduction when estimating volatility in the presence of stochastic volatility and microstructure noise with the realized kernels (RK) from Barndorff-Nielsen et al. (2008) and the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) studied in Xiu (2010). To obtain such a reduction, we chop the data into B blocks, compute the RK (or QMLE) on each block, and aggregate the block estimates. The ratio of asymptotic variance over the bound of asymptotic efficiency converges as B increases to the ratio in the parametric version of the problem, i.e. 1.0025 in the case of the fastest RK Tukey-Hanning 16 and 1 for the QMLE. The impact of stochastic sampling times and jump in the price process is examined carefully. The finite sample performance of both estimators is investigated in simulations, while empirical work illustrates the gain in practice.

Forecasting stock market volatility: Do realized skewness and kurtosis help?

In this study, we investigate the predictability of the realized skewness (RSK) and realized kurtosis (RKU) to stock market volatility, that has not been addressed in the existing studies. Out-of-sample results show that RSK, which can significantly improve forecast accuracy in mid- and long-term, is more powerful than RKU in forecasting volatility. Whereas these variables are useless in short-term forecasting. Furthermore, we employ the realized kernel (RK) for the robustness analysis and the conclusions are consistent with the RV measures. Our results are of great importance for portfolio allocation and financial risk management.