Realizations Of Hydraulic Conductivity Field Research Articles

Conditional mean, effective, and realizations of hydraulic conductivity fields

This study first discusses the conditional mean, realizations, and effective hydraulic conductivity in a theoretical framework. It then introduces Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) algorithms for constraining the outcome by either hydraulic conductivity (K) samples or hydraulic head (h) measurements from the hydraulic tomographic survey (HT). It demonstrates that kriging using K measurements leads to a conditional mean K field, while inverse modeling using successive linear estimator (SLE) with head measurements of HT yields the conditional effective K field. The effects of conditioning using K measurements are different from those using heads. Besides, the conditional effective K leads to the unbiased prediction of the head that honors the observed head at measurement locations. More importantly, the study reveals that the harmonic and geometric means of conditional realizations of K fields of MCS, given head measurements, are equivalent to the conditional effective K in one- and two-dimensional flows, respectively. The first-order approximation in the SLE results in a conditional covariance similar to that from MCS with smaller magnitudes. Despite the difference, all approaches predict unbiased conditional mean head behaviors.

Upscaling non-linear reactive transport in correlated velocity fields

While commonly non-local transport models have been shown to reproduce breakthrough curves resulting from transport in heterogeneous aquifers successfully, open questions include the formal link between the upscaled governing equations and the sub-scale heterogeneity, and the ability to account for the effect of heterogeneity on effective chemical reaction rates in the presence of non-linear multi-component reactions. Time-domain random walk approaches based on velocity Markov models provide a framework to resolve these issues by incorporating the spatial correlation of velocity of a solute particle in consecutive locations along its trajectory. These approaches often rely on particle tracking approaches, which, however, can be computationally burdensome especially when non-linear reactions are sought to be modeled. In this paper, an integro-differential equation is proposed for upscaling multi-component reactive transport in heterogeneous media that relies on copulas for representing the velocity correlation structure. For this purpose, we express concentration or flux of solutes as a distribution over their velocity. We then derive the integro-differential equation that governs the evolution of concentration distribution over a quantity defined as velocity-rank. In this way, the spatial evolution of breakthrough curves away from the source is predicted based on ergodic cross-sectional velocity distributions and a parameterized copula function which expresses the correlation between velocity-ranks of a solute particle along its trajectory. We demonstrate the validity of the proposed model by comparing breakthrough curves for conservative and non-linearly reacting solutes based on realizations of hydraulic conductivity fields to the results of the upscaled model.

Application of the Iterative Ensemble Smoother Method and Cloud Computing: A Groundwater Modeling Case Study

Numerical groundwater modelling to support mining decisions is often challenging and time consuming. Simulation of open pit mining for model calibration or prediction requires models that include unsaturated flow, large magnitude hydraulic gradients and often require transient simulations with time varying material properties and boundary conditions. This combination of factors typically results in models with long simulation times and/or some level of numerical instability. In modelling practice, long run times and instability can result in reduced effort for predictive uncertainty analysis, and ultimately decrease the value of the decision-support modelling. This study presents an early application of the Iterative Ensemble Smoother (IES) method of calibration-constrained uncertainty analysis to a mining groundwater flow model. The challenges of mining models and uncertainty quantification were addressed using the IES method and facilitated by highly parallelized cloud computing. The project was an open pit mine in South Australia that required predictions of pit water levels and inflow rates to guide the design of a proposed pumped hydro energy storage system. The IES calibration successfully produced 150 model parameter realizations that acceptably reproduced groundwater observations. The flexibility of the IES method allowed for the inclusion of 1493 adjustable parameters and geostatistical realizations of hydraulic conductivity fields to be included in the analysis. Through the geostatistical realizations and IES analysis, alternative conceptual models of fractured rock aquifer orientation and connections could be conditioned to observation data and used for predictive uncertainty analysis. Importantly, the IES method out-performed finite difference methods when model simulations contained small magnitude numerical instabilities.

Natural Stimuli Calibration with Fining Direction Regularization in an Integrated Hydrologic Model.

The interaction between surface water and groundwater during flood events is a complex process that has traditionally been described using simplified analytical solutions, or abstracted numerical models. To make the problem tractable, it is common to idealize the flood event, simplify river channel geometry, and ignore bank soil heterogeneity, often resulting in a model that only loosely represents the site, thus limiting its applicability to any specific river cross-section. In this study, we calibrate a site-specific fully-integrated surface and subsurface HydroGeoSphere model using flood events for a cross-section along the South River near Waynesboro, VA. The calibration approach presented in this study demonstrates the incorporation of fining direction regularization with a highly parameterized inversion driven by natural stimuli, to develop several realistic realizations of hydraulic conductivity fields that reflect the depositional history of the system. Specifically, we calibrate a model with 365 unique material zones to multiple flood events recorded in a dense well network while incorporating possible fining sequences consistent with the depositional history of the riverbank. Over 25,000 individual simulations were completed using calibration software and a cloud platform specifically designed for highly parallelized computing environments. The results of this study demonstrate the use of fining direction regularization during model calibration to generate multiple calibrated model realizations that account for the depositional environment of the system.

Reliability Evaluation of Groundwater Contamination Source Characterization under Uncertain Flow Field

Groundwater contamination is one of the serious environmental problems. Effective remediation strategies require accurate characteristics of contamination sources. Contamination source identification approaches need accurate flow and contaminant transport simulation models. In order to obtain reliable solutions, the simulation models need to be provided with reliable hydrogeologic information. In real life scenarios usually sparse and limited hydrogeologic information is available. In this study two hydraulic conductivity sampling networks are ranked based on their effectiveness in identifying reliable contamination source characteristics. Using multiple realizations of hydraulic conductivity fields, and the location and size of the contaminant plume at different monitoring stages, an index of reliability is estimated for each hydraulic conductivity sampling network. It is demonstrated that the source characteristics identified by utilizing the sampling network with higher index of reliability results in more accurate characterization of contamination sources. Therefore the developed methodology provides a tool to select an appropriate hydrogeologic sampling network for more efficient characterizing of contamination sources.

Regional-scale integration of multiresolution hydrological and geophysical data using a two-step Bayesian sequential simulation approach

Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale for the purpose of improving predictions of groundwater flow and solute transport. However, extending corresponding approaches to the regional scale still represents one of the major challenges in the domain of hydrogeophysics. To address this problem, we have developed a regional-scale data integration methodology based on a two-step Bayesian sequential simulation approach. Our objective is to generate high-resolution stochastic realizations of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity field in the common case where there exist spatially exhaustive but poorly resolved measurements of a related geophysical parameter, as well as highly resolved but spatially sparse collocated measurements of this geophysical parameter and the hydraulic conductivity. To integrate this multi-scale, multi-parameter database, we first link the low- and high-resolution geophysical data via a stochastic downscaling procedure. This is followed by relating the downscaled geophysical data to the high-resolution hydraulic conductivity distribution. After outlining the general methodology of the approach, we demonstrate its application to a realistic synthetic example where we consider as data high-resolution measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities at a small number of borehole locations, as well as spatially exhaustive, low-resolution estimates of the electrical conductivity obtained from surface-based electrical resistivity tomography. The different stochastic realizations of the hydraulic conductivity field obtained using our procedure are validated by comparing their solute transport behaviour with that of the underlying true hydraulic conductivity field. We find that, even in the presence of strong subsurface heterogeneity, our proposed procedure allows for the generation of faithful representations of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and reliable predictions of solute transport over long, regional-scale distances.

DNAPL distribution in the source zone: Effect of soil structure and uncertainty reduction with increased sampling density

This paper focuses on parameters describing the distribution of dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) contaminants and investigates the variability of these parameters that results from soil heterogeneity. In addition, it quantifies the uncertainty reduction that can be achieved with increased density of soil sampling. Numerical simulations of DNAPL releases were performed using stochastic realizations of hydraulic conductivity fields generated with the same geostatistical parameters and conditioning data at two sampling densities, thus generating two simulation ensembles of low and high density (three-fold increase) of soil sampling. The results showed that DNAPL plumes in aquifers identical in a statistical sense exhibit qualitatively different patterns, ranging from compact to finger-like. The corresponding quantitative differences were expressed by defining several alternative measures that describe the DNAPL plume and computing these measures for each simulation of the two ensembles. The uncertainty in the plume features under study was affected to different degrees by the variability of the soil, with coefficients of variation ranging from about 20% to 90%, for the low-density sampling. Meanwhile, the increased soil sampling frequency resulted in reductions of uncertainty varying from 7% to 69%, for low- and high-uncertainty variables, respectively. In view of the varying uncertainty in the characteristics of a DNAPL plume, remedial designs that require estimates of the less uncertain features of the plume may be preferred over others that need a more detailed characterization of the source zone architecture.

Time Varying Optimization for Monitoring Multiple Contaminants under Uncertain Hydrogeology

ABSTRACT This study presents a method for identifying cost effective sampling designs for long-term monitoring of remediation of groundwater over multiple monitoring periods under uncertain flow conditions. A contaminant transport model is used to simulate plume migration under many equally likely stochastic hydraulic conductivity fields and provides representative samples of contaminant concentrations. Monitoring costs are minimized under a constraint to meet an acceptable level of error in the estimation of total mass for multiple contaminants simultaneously over many equiprobable realizations of hydraulic conductivity field. A new myopic heuristic algorithm (MS-ER) that combines a new error-reducing search neighborhood is developed to solve the optimization problem. A simulated annealing algorithm using the error-reducing neighborhood (SA-ER) and a genetic algorithm (GA) are also considered for solving the optimization problem. The method is applied to a hypothetical aquifer where enhanced anaerobic bioremediation of four toxic chlorinated ethene species is modeled using a complex contaminant transport model. The MS-ER algorithm consistently performed better in multiple trials of each algorithm when compared to SA-ER and GA. The best design of MS-ER algorithm produced a savings of nearly 25% in project cost over a conservative sampling plan that uses all possible locations and samples.

Application of a Decision Making Analysis to Evaluate Direct Recharging of an Unconfined Aquifer in Jordan

This case study describes the application of the Freeze et al. (1991) decision analysis approach to design an artificial recharge program for a basin, known in Jordan as Yarmouk Basin. This approach of design was selected because it suits projects in which the hydrogeological environment plays an important role; and because the approach to design involves quantifying benefits, costs, and risks for recharge alternatives under consideration. Risk, which is added here, is defined as the expected costs of failure. It reflects both performance uncertainties and failure costs. Probability of failure to attain a prescribed drawdown at each of the compliance points was estimated by coupling a parameter uncertainty model with a groundwater flow simulation model and a reliability model. The simulations were based on an ensemble of thirty realizations of hydraulic conductivity field which were generated by a parameter uncertainty model after assuming the hydraulic conductivity field log-normally distributed spatially. Finally, the decision between alternatives was made by a decision making model which considers both the costs and risks. Decision variables consist of the number, location, and recharge rate of the injection wells. The results showed how the preferred design alternative depends upon the hydrogeological, and economic considerations. Moreover, the preferred alternative under the adopted criteria for recharge was found less sensitive to the cost of failure, but highly dependent upon the total cost of the system.