Realistic Sea Surface Temperature Research Articles

Mitigating Masked Pixels in a Climate-Critical Ocean Dataset

Clouds and other data artefacts frequently limit the retrieval of key variables from remotely sensed Earth observations. We train a natural language processing (NLP)-inspired algorithm with high-fidelity ocean simulations to accurately reconstruct masked or missing data in sea surface temperature (SST) fields—one of 54 essential climate variables identified by the Global Climate Observing System. We demonstrate that the resulting model, referred to as Enki, repeatedly outperforms previously adopted inpainting techniques by up to an order of magnitude in reconstruction error, while displaying exceptional performance even in circumstances where the majority of pixels are masked. Furthermore, experiments on real infrared sensor data with masked percentages of at least 40% show reconstruction errors of less than the known uncertainty of this sensor (root mean square error (RMSE) ≲0.1 K). We attribute Enki’s success to the attentive nature of NLP combined with realistic SST model outputs—an approach that could be extended to other remotely sensed variables. This study demonstrates that systems built upon Enki—or other advanced systems like it—may therefore yield the optimal solution to mitigating masked pixels in in climate-critical ocean datasets sampling a rapidly changing Earth.

Predictability of Coastal Boundary Layer Jets in South China Using Atmosphere–Ocean Coupling

AbstractMost standalone atmospheric models do not perform well in simulations of coastal boundary layer jets (BLJs), important weather processes that can trigger heavy rain in coastal areas by supplying both moisture and dynamic lifting. We compared 33‐year simulations with a coupled atmosphere–ocean model and its standalone atmospheric component, the REgional atmosphere MOdel (REMO), forced by the prescribed sea surface temperature (SST). We validated our results using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission SST and the ERA5 hourly reanalysis data set. We found that the coupled model gave a more realistic SST standard deviation than the REMO on BLJ days and corrected the overestimated air temperature over land during the day. The coupled atmosphere–ocean model showed a lower land–sea thermal contrast in the boundary layer. This increased the effects of inertial oscillation, which caused the ageostrophic flows to veer southwest, which is the direction of the maximum wind speed on BLJ days. This reproduced a more reasonable land–sea thermal contrast in the boundary layer as a result of strong air–sea mixing in coastal weather processes, which led to a more robust inertial oscillation and a larger SST standard deviation over the central South China Sea. These findings deepen our understanding of the influence of a fully mixed air–sea boundary on coastal weather processes. These results show that operational numerical weather prediction models can be improved by applying atmosphere–ocean coupling to advance their ability to forecast the weather (e.g., BLJ events) in coastal areas.

Onset of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification: Evaluating the Response to Length Scales of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Abstract Predicting the rapid intensification (>15.0 m s−1 increase in 10 m wind speed over 24 h or less) of tropical cyclones (TC) remains a challenge in the broader context of numerical weather prediction largely due to their multiscale dynamics. Ocean observations show that the size and magnitude of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with cold wakes and ocean eddies play important roles in TC dynamics. In this study, a combination of spectral and structure function analyses is utilized to generate realistic realizations of multiscale anomalies characteristic of the SST conditions in which Hurricane Irma (2017) underwent rapid intensification (RI). We investigate the impact of the length scale of these SST anomalies and the role of translation speed on the variance in RI onset timing. Length-scale-induced convective asymmetries, in addition to the mean magnitude of SST anomalies beneath the storm eye, are shown to modulate the variance in RI onset timing. The size of the associated SST length scales relative to the storm size is critical to the magnitude of variance in RI onset timing, as smaller length scales are shown to lack the spatial extent required to induce preferential convective asymmetries. Storm translation speed is also shown to influence the variance in RI onset timing for larger-length-scale ensembles by altering the exposure time of the eye to these SST anomalies. We find that an interplay between SST-induced convective asymmetries, the magnitude of SST anomalies underneath the eye/eyewall, and storm translation speed play crucial roles in modulating the variance in RI onset timing. Significance Statement The characteristics of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical cyclone near-environment are inherently multiscale in nature as a result of interactions between various dynamical processes in the ocean. Assuming a uniform SST beneath storms in numerical simulations limits the predictability of how air–sea interaction affects the physics of rapid intensification (RI). In this study, the influence of realistic multiscale SST anomalies on RI onset timing is investigated. Our results suggest that the length scale of SST anomalies (in addition to its magnitude) modulate the distribution of convection, creating asymmetries around the RMW that can influence the predictability of RI onset. This effect is further modulated by storm translation speed, with the most prominent impact seen in slow-moving storms.

Lightweight Neural Network for Spatiotemporal Filling of Data Gaps in Sea Surface Temperature Images

Optical remotely sensed data often have data gaps due to cloud coverage, which hinders their full potential in many environmental applications. The question of how to accurately and effectively reconstruct the measurements in the data gaps remains a challenge. In this study, we developed a bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) model with a novel and adaptable custom temporal penalty layer for spatiotemporal gap-filling. The model was trained and tested in time-series daily night-time sea surface temperature (SST) images acquired by the Himawari-8 satellite. The modelling results showed strong performance, accurately reconstructing spatial and temporal features of cloud affected SST data. Our neural network achieved a per-image MAE of 0.1193°C and per-image RMSE of 0.1293°C. The model was also able to produce realistic SST time-series predictions that were consistent with the expected seasonal variables. Importantly, the BiLSTM model outperformed the previous state-of-the-art Simple Spatial Gapfilling Processor (SSGP) algorithm in terms of error metrics, structural similarity, and computational efficiency. Overall, the results of this study indicates that the BiLSTM neural network model we developed is highly suitable for spatiotemporal gap-filling of SST and other remotely sensed data.

Regional Responses of the Northern Hemisphere Subtropical Jet Stream to Reduced Arctic Sea Ice Extent

The effect of Arctic sea ice loss on the boreal winter regional trends of wind speed and latitudinal position of the Northern Hemisphere subtropical jet stream (STJ) in 1980–2012 is investigated. Two sets of global simulations with reduced Arctic sea ice extent are analyzed: simulations that, south of 70 N, use a climatological annual cycle of the sea surface temperature (SST) and a second set that uses full SST variability. Results with the climatological SST have a significant but weak response of the STJ wind speed and latitudinal position to the warmer Arctic: the wind speed generally decreases and the jet core is displaced equatorward. However, in the realistic SST simulations, the effect of Arctic warming is only slightly evident in a small equatorward shift of the jet over the Atlantic basin. Over the Pacific basin the STJ is mostly driven by tropical and mid-latitude SST variability, with little influence from the Arctic region. A weakening and poleward shift of the STJ that is observed in the realistic SST simulations over the Pacific basin is attributed to negative SST trends in the tropical Pacific and the consequent weakening of the mid-latitude meridional gradient of geopotential height in the upper troposphere.

Identifying the changes in winter monsoon characteristics over the Indian subcontinent due to Arabian Sea warming

This study investigated the impact of the Arabian Sea (AS) warming in modulating the winter precipitation over the Indian subcontinent and associated dynamical response such as subtropical jet variability using regional climate model, RegCM4.7 of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP). In this regard, a control run (RegCTL) is forced by real sea surface temperature (SST), and two sensitivity experiments with uniformly increased SST over AS by 0.45 °C (RegSST45) and 0.90 °C (RegSST90) are performed. The results obtained from a control experiment (RegCTL) are compared with corresponding values from RegSST45 and RegSST90 to assess the warming impact. The model (RegCTL) realistically simulates the circulation features, precipitation, and temperature over the Indian subcontinents in the winter season (November–December-January-February; NDJF) during 2006–2015. It is found that AS warming increases the precipitation over most parts of India during winter. The precipitation response varies with the month (NDJF) and the magnitude of AS warming. In general, precipitation is found to intensify with increasing AS warming over northern India and adjoining south Asian nations like Afghanistan, Pakistan, and some parts of Burma and Nepal. The strengthening of STJ is observed due to AS warming (RegSST45). The strengthening of the subtropical jet (STJ) persists with an intensification of AS warming (RegSST90); however, the magnitude of strengthening is less than RegSST45, which is consistent with the corresponding increase of precipitation over India. Cold wave duration is found to be significantly sensitive to the intensity of AS warming. It is noticed that the AS warming increases the cold wave duration over the northern part of India with major increases over the western Himalayan region.

Active Role of Sea Surface Temperature Changes Over the Kuroshio in the Development of Distant Tropical Cyclones in Boreal Fall

AbstractThis study examined the active role of sea surface temperature (SST) changes over the Kuroshio in the development of distant tropical cyclones (TCs) approaching Japan in October, using a cloud‐resolving model. We designed a real SST experiment and SST sensitivity runs by adding and subtracting SST anomalies equivalent to a spread of year‐to‐year October‐mean Kuroshio's SST changes. Under a synoptic environment that low‐level northeasterlies prevailed over the Kuroshio, systematic differences in TC intensity between the real and modified SST runs were simulated despite the developing TCs being far away from the modified SST areas. In the warm (cool) SST runs, active (inactive) moisture import from the Kuroshio increased (decreased) the equivalent potential temperature within the planetary boundary layer (PBL) in the inner core, thereby enhancing (weakening) the latent eyewall heating and the associated secondary circulation. The differences in the secondary circulation led to those in the inward advection of absolute angular momentum in the PBL, affecting a vortex spin‐up in the inner core. We also found that the surface heat and moisture supply from the Kuroshio facilitated the warming and moistening processes of midlatitude air parcels traveling over the underlying current, causing further reinforcement of the moisture import into the distant TC. These thermodynamic processes were more and less apparent in the warm and cool SST runs, respectively. Since the synoptic environment in this study often arises in boreal fall, the Kuroshio's SST warming in recent decades may influence the intensities of TCs approaching Japan in fall.

Impacts of a Midlatitude Oceanic Frontal Zone for the Baroclinic Annular Mode in the Southern Hemisphere

AbstractAs a major mode of annular variability in the Southern Hemisphere, the baroclinic annular mode (BAM) represents the pulsing of extratropical eddy activity. Focusing mainly on subweekly disturbances, this study assesses the impacts of a midlatitude oceanic frontal zone on the BAM and its dynamics through a set of “aquaplanet” atmospheric general circulation model experiments with zonally uniform sea surface temperature (SST) profiles prescribed. Though idealized, one experiment with realistic frontal SST gradient reasonably well reproduces observed BAM-associated anomalies as a manifestation of a typical life cycle of migratory baroclinic disturbances. Qualitatively, these BAM features are also simulated in the other experiment where the frontal SST gradient is removed. However, the BAM-associated variability weakens markedly and shifts equatorward, in association with the corresponding modifications in the climatological-mean storm track activity. The midlatitude oceanic frontal zone amplifies and anchors the BAM variability by restoring near-surface baroclinicity through anomalous sensible heat supply from the ocean and moisture supply to cyclones, although the BAM is essentially a manifestation of atmospheric internal dynamics. Those experiments and observations further indicate that the BAM modulates momentum flux associated with transient disturbances to induce a modest but robust meridional shift of the polar-front jet, suggesting that the BAM can help maintain the southern annular mode. They also indicate that the quasi-periodic behavior of the BAM is likely to reflect internal dynamics in which atmospheric disturbances on both subweekly and longer time scales are involved.

The Novel Hydroxylated Tetraether Index RI‐OH′ as a Sea Surface Temperature Proxy for the 160‐45 ka BP Period Off the Iberian Margin

AbstractRI‐OH′ and RI‐OH (ring index of hydroxylated tetraethers) are two novel organic paleothermometers which could either complement or replace more established paleothermometric proxies, such as UK′37 (C37 ketone unsaturation ratio) and TEX86 (TetraEther indeX of tetraethers consisting of 86 carbon atoms). Despite a few promising attempts, the paleothermometric potential of RI‐OH′ and RI‐OH is not fully constrained. Here we present new high‐resolution temperature records over the 160‐45 ka BP (before present = year 1950 CE) period using four organic proxies (RI‐OH′, RI‐OH, TEX86, and UK′37) from three deep sea sediment cores located in a north‐south transect along the Iberian Margin. We analyzed all organic proxies from a single set of lipid extracts to optimize proxy‐proxy comparisons and phase relationship studies. RI‐OH′ responds to Dansgaard‐Oeschger and Heinrich events, better resembles UK′37 than TEX86, and better records the influence of (sub)polar waters during Heinrich events than does RI‐OH. While RI‐OH′ gives realistic sea surface temperatures and latitudinal gradients coherent with those from independent paleothermometers, a more extensive RI‐OH′‐temperature calibration for the North Atlantic is clearly needed. However, the absence of a significant warm bias in RI‐OH′‐based temperatures compared to a shallow sea site suggests that endemic, deep‐dwelling archeal communities affect TEX86 but not RI‐OH′ in the Iberian Margin. TEX86 leads RI‐OH′ and UK′37 during four Heinrich‐like events, potentially due to background fluxes from deep waters for nonhydroxylated tetraethers summed with primary productivity dependent fluxes from surface waters for all investigated lipid classes. Relationships with Greenland temperatures further support RI‐OH′‐based paleothermometry.

Impact of the Benguela coastal low-level jet on the southeast tropical Atlantic SST bias in a regional ocean model

The current generation of coupled ocean–atmosphere climate models, which are widely used for studying the dynamics of the climate system and to make projections of future climate, suffers from erroneously warm (exceeding 5 °C) sea surface temperature (SST) simulation in the eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUS) in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. While recent improvements in the horizontal resolution of coupled model components helped to alleviate this issue in the North and South Pacific and North Atlantic oceans, the warm bias in the Southeast Tropical Atlantic (SETA) region still remains above 5 °C. Recent studies have highlighted the importance of inaccuracies in the near-coastal winds, especially in the Benguela low-level coastal jet (BLLCJ), in the formation of this warm SST bias. In addition, unique ocean circulation features like the poleward flowing coastal current and the presence of a strong coastal SST front were argued to contribute to the complexity in simulating realistic SST in the SETA region. In this study, we investigate how ocean model resolution and the spatial structure and strength of the BLLCJ affect the SST warm bias in the SETA. We conducted a suite of ocean model experiments with varying horizontal resolutions (81–3 km) and different atmospheric forcing products. We found that the accuracy in the magnitude of BLLCJ’s alongshore component and in the spatial structure of BLLCJ are the primary factors in reducing the warm SST bias in SETA and the ocean model horizontal resolution is of only secondary importance. A weaker alongshore component of the BLLCJ leads to a weaker upwelling through Ekman transport and fails to generate a downwind equatorward surface jet in the ocean. When the core of the BLLCJ is too far offshore, the broad wind stress curl zone gives rise to anomalous poleward depth integrated flow through Sverdrup balance and weakens the wind stress curl induced Ekman pumping near the coast. Both the presence of a poleward current, which can transport warm equatorial waters farther south, and the absence of the equatorward surface jet contributes to the warm SST bias. Heat budget analysis shows that the contribution from the anomalous poleward flow is a bigger contributor to the warm bias than the weak upwelling. With more realistic, high-resolution winds, an ocean model resolution increase from 27 to 9 km slightly reduces the extent and magnitude of SST bias. However, no such improvement occurs with coarse resolution less realistic winds. Sensitivity experiments using atmospheric forcing fields from different sources confirm that the major contribution to the warm SST bias is in fact from the erroneous winds rather than other atmospheric forcing fields like net shortwave and downward longwave radiation. Further studies are needed to understand whether eddy heat advection or mean flow heat advection primarily cause the warm SST bias.

The synergistic impact of ENSO and IOD on Indian summer monsoon rainfall in observations and climate simulations – an information theory perspective

Abstract. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are two well-known temporal oscillations in sea surface temperature (SST), which are both thought to influence the interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). Until now, there has been no measure to assess the simultaneous information exchange (IE) from both ENSO and IOD to ISMR. This study explores the information exchange from two source variables (ENSO and IOD) to one target (ISMR). First, in order to illustrate the concepts and quantification of two-source IE to a target, we use idealized test cases consisting of linear and nonlinear dynamical systems. Our results show that these systems exhibit net synergy (i.e., the combined influence of two sources on a target is greater than the sum of their individual contributions), even with uncorrelated sources in both the linear and nonlinear systems. We test IE quantification with various estimators (linear, kernel, and Kraskov estimators) for robustness. Next, the two-source IE from ENSO and IOD to ISMR is investigated in observations, reanalysis, three global climate model (GCM) simulations, and three nested higher-resolution simulations using a regional climate model (RCM). This (1) quantifies IE from ENSO and IOD to ISMR in the natural system and (2) applies IE in the evaluation of the GCM and RCM simulations. The results show that both ENSO and IOD contribute to ISMR interannual variability. Interestingly, significant net synergy is noted in the central parts of the Indian subcontinent, which is India's monsoon core region. This indicates that both ENSO and IOD are synergistic predictors in the monsoon core region. But, they share significant net redundant information in the southern part of the Indian subcontinent. The IE patterns in the GCM simulations differ substantially from the patterns derived from observations and reanalyses. Only one nested RCM simulation IE pattern adds value to the corresponding GCM simulation pattern. Only in this case does the GCM simulation show realistic SST patterns and moisture transport during the various ENSO and IOD phases. This confirms, once again, the importance of the choice of GCM in driving a higher-resolution RCM. This study shows that two-source IE is a useful metric that helps in better understanding the climate system and in process-oriented climate model evaluation.

On the control of subantarctic stratification by the ocean circulation

A shallow mixed layer depth bias in Austral winter in the Subantarctic Zone is a common feature of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models, including the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The bias is related to other deficiencies in the model solution, including too-weak Subantarctic Mode water formation and excessive leakage of Agulhas waters into the Atlantic instead of into the Indian Ocean and Subantarctic Frontal Zone. This work investigates the hypothesis that the shallow bias is due to errors in the simulated ocean circulation. Results from a model with low resolution ocean component (1° grid) are compared against: (i) an experiment with an eddy resolving (0.1°) grid and (ii) experiments using the 1° grid and employing an adiabatic nudging of the ocean pressure field to observations that is referred to as a semi-prognostic method. For both the higher resolution and semi-prognostic experiments, improved horizontal advection of warm and salty water near the surface leads to a more realistic sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity front associated with the Agulhas Return Current and Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The warmer surface waters in the high-resolution model and semi-prognostic model lead to stronger air–sea heat loss, with a response of about 40 Wm−2 °C−1 in winter in the area of deep mixed layers. Budgets of the temperature and salinity stratification show that the deeper mixed layers in the high-resolution experiment are primarily a result of the increased surface heat loss, whereas in the semi-prognostic case salinity advection is the main factor leading to destabilization of the water column. Both results indicate that ocean circulation is a key factor in wintertime deep Southern Ocean mixing, associated with advection of water masses and air–sea feedbacks.

Large-scale control on the frequency of tropical cyclones and seeds: a consistent relationship across a hierarchy of global atmospheric models

A diagnostic framework is developed to explain the response of tropical cyclones (TCs) to climate in high-resolution global atmospheric models having different complexity of boundary conditions. The framework uses vortex dynamics to identify the large-scale control on the evolution of TC precursors—first non-rotating convective clusters and then weakly rotating seeds. In experiments with perturbed sea surface temperature (SST) and hbox {CO}_2 concentration from the historical values, the response of TCs follows the response of seeds. The distribution of seeds is explained by the distribution of the non-rotating convective clusters multiplied by a probability that they transition to seeds. The distribution of convective clusters is constrained by the large-scale vertical velocity and is verified in aquaplanet experiments with shifting Inter tropical Convergence Zones. The probability of transition to seeds is constrained by the large-scale vorticity via an analytical function, representing the relative importance between vortex stretching and vorticity advection, and is verified in aquaplanet experiments with uniform SST. The consistency between seed and TC responses breaks down substantially when the realistic SST is perturbed such that the spatial gradient is significantly enhanced or reduced. In such cases, the difference between the responses is explained by a change in the ventilation index, which influences the fraction of seeds that develop into TCs. The proposed TC-climate relationship serves as a framework to explain the diversity of TC projection across models and forcing scenarios.

An overview of the performance of CMIP6 models in the tropical Atlantic: mean state, variability, and remote impacts

General circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are examined with respect to their ability to simulate the mean state and variability of the tropical Atlantic and its linkage to the tropical Pacific. While, on average, mean state biases have improved little, relative to the previous intercomparison (CMIP5), there are now a few models with very small biases. In particular the equatorial Atlantic warm SST and westerly wind biases are mostly eliminated in these models. Furthermore, interannual variability in the equatorial and subtropical Atlantic is quite realistic in a number of CMIP6 models, which suggests that they should be useful tools for understanding and predicting variability patterns. The evolution of equatorial Atlantic biases follows the same pattern as in previous model generations, with westerly wind biases during boreal spring preceding warm sea-surface temperature (SST) biases in the east during boreal summer. A substantial portion of the westerly wind bias exists already in atmosphere-only simulations forced with observed SST, suggesting an atmospheric origin. While variability is relatively realistic in many models, SSTs seem less responsive to wind forcing than observed, both on the equator and in the subtropics, possibly due to an excessively deep mixed layer originating in the oceanic component. Thus models with realistic SST amplitude tend to have excessive wind amplitude. The models with the smallest mean state biases all have relatively high resolution but there are also a few low-resolution models that perform similarly well, indicating that resolution is not the only way toward reducing tropical Atlantic biases. The results also show a relatively weak link between mean state biases and the quality of the simulated variability. The linkage to the tropical Pacific shows a wide range of behaviors across models, indicating the need for further model improvement.

An Estimate of the Relative Contributions of Sea Surface Temperature Variations in Various Regions to Stratospheric Change

AbstractThis study investigates the effects of global and regional sea surface temperature (SST) warming from the Industrial Revolution to the present on the stratosphere using a climate model, and estimates the relative contributions of SST warming in different regions. The observed global SST warming is found to cause colder and stronger stratospheric zonal circulations in the high latitudes of both hemispheres, and a colder lower stratosphere in the tropics and ozone depletion. This occurs because the warming in the tropical Atlantic and in the north Indian Ocean and North Pacific strongly cool the stratosphere in the southern and northern high latitudes, respectively. The cooling in the lower stratosphere at lower and midlatitudes is mainly caused by SST warming in the tropical Pacific and north Indian Ocean. The changes in stratospheric temperature are related to changes in circulation and ozone. In addition, we investigate the effects on the stratosphere of ideal 1-K uniform warming of SST in different oceans and compare these effects with those caused by the realistic SST warming. The observed global SST warming and 1-K uniform global SST warming have opposite effects on the high-latitude stratosphere in both hemispheres: 1-K uniform global SST warming results in warmer and weaker stratospheric zonal circulations and a corresponding increase in ozone. This is because the 1-K uniform increase in SST in the tropical Pacific causes extremely strong warming and weakening stratospheric zonal circulations. The contribution of a 1-K uniform increase of SST in the tropical Pacific to stratospheric temperature, circulation, and ozone anomalies overwhelms that of a 1-K uniform increase of SST in other regions.

Key Role of the Kuroshio Current in the Formation of Frontal Structure of an Extratropical Cyclone Associated with Heavy Precipitation

AbstractIn this study, the authors examined how the Kuroshio Current affected the frontal structure of an extratropical cyclone associated with heavy precipitation. We focused on an extratropical cyclone and related heavy precipitation on Miyake Island, which is situated near the Kuroshio Current, in January 2017. We first investigated the frontal structure and the attendant precipitation using observational data and objective analysis data. As the cyclone grew around the Kuroshio Current, a nonclassic front (outer front) intensified to the north of a warm front. A line‐shaped precipitation band developed along the outer front, contributing to the heavy precipitation on Miyake Island. The outer front lay along a sea surface temperature (SST) front associated with the Kuroshio Current in its early life stage. To clarify the impact of the SST front on the formation of the incipient outer front, we next conducted cloud‐resolving numerical experiments using SST distributions with and without the oceanic frontal structure. In the real SST experiment, sensible heat supply from the Kuroshio Current was large, while the amount from the ocean on the northern side of the warm current was small. This meridional difference in sensible heating caused frontogenesis along the SST front, which created the incipient front. Consequently, the real SST experiment reproduced the formation of the front. In contrast, the SST sensitivity experiments did not simulate such a sensible heating pattern or front formation. Thus, the Kuroshio Current played a key role in forming the incipient outer front and contributed to the heavy precipitation.

Role of Sea Surface Temperature in Modulating Life Cycle of Tropical Cyclones over Bay of Bengal

Sea surface temperature (SST) varies significantly in the presence of tropical cyclones (TCs). Using fixed SST throughout the integration of high resolution TC models is general practice in research and operational endeavor over the North Indian Ocean. The present study is to assess the impact of updating realistic SST in TC lifetime on track, intensity and rainfall of TCs. The Hurricane Weather Research Forecast (HWRF) model of single domain with 9km resolution is used. A total of 31 forecast cases are considered from 6 TCs during 2007- 16 with unique track and intensity characteristics. A set of two numerical experiments are done without (CNTL) and with 6-hourly SST update (SST) in TC lifetime.Mean track and intensity errors show that there is an improvement of 3–41% in track during 12–120h forecast length for SST run. The SST runs improve landfall position and time prediction by 20% and 33% respectively. The cross track error of SST run is comparable (44km) with average errors available for this basin (34km); and along track errors are improved by 60% as compared to CNTL as well as average errors of the basin. The model is biased to overestimate a weaker TC and underestimate a stronger TC, however, the bias is reduced in SST run by 5–51%. The analyses of wind, enthalpy flux and warm core structures provide insight for realistic intensity prediction of SST run unlike CNTL. Rainfall intensity and radial distribution is also improved in SST run. Thus, this study highlights the significance of ocean coupling with TC models to advance forecast guidance.

Ensemble estimates of the wave state related parameters in a sea spray parameterization scheme

Uncertainties of the wave state parameters in a sea spray parameterization scheme can be a major source of errors for air-sea turbulent (momentum, sensible and latent) fluxes parameterizations resulting in biases in numerical ocean simulations and forecasts. In this study, we explore applications of the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) data assimilation method to optimize the wave states parameters the 1-D POM ocean model for a full range of wind speed conditions. Thus, we assimilate sea surface temperature (SST) synthesized observations to improve our estimates of the SST analysis and prediction skill from low to high winds. Two types of experiments are conducted. In the first type, in a “twin” experiment framework, the SST “observations” generated by a “truth” model are assimilated into an imperfect, biased model to investigate the extent to which the parameters are able to be optimized, with respect to the “truth” values based on data from Station Papa and the Kuroshio Extension Observatory (KEO). In the second type, real SST observations from KEO are assimilated to obtain optimized parameters. With these optimized parameters, the SST analysis and prediction errors are significantly reduced, especially for high wind conditions.

The Madden‐Julian Oscillation in an Aquaplanet‐Like General Circulation Model With and Without Continents

AbstractWe have conducted experiments with the Community Atmospheric Model version 5.1 configured as an aquaplanet, with the sun at March equinox, in order to study how the model Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) responds to (i) the introduction of continents and (ii) realistic sea surface temperature (SST) distribution. Model results are compared with ERA‐Interim reanalysis and analyzed in terms of the moist static energy (MSE) budget to study the growth and propagation of MJO. With idealized zonally symmetric SST, the aquaplanet model produces a double Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and an MJO‐like mode with variance at intraseasonal (30‐ to 96‐day) periods and zonal wave number 1. When we introduce continents with realistic orography and interactive surface temperature, soil moisture, and albedo, the variance of MJO is mainly confined to zonal wave numbers 1 and 2 but reduced by a factor of 3 due to weaker boundary layer moisture convergence. With prescribed climatological January SST boundary condition (which includes Indo‐west Pacific warm pool) in the presence of continents, model MJO variance is enhanced and distributed across zonal wave numbers 1 to 5, in closer agreement with observation. Thus, the presence of land by itself is not enough, but realistic SST distribution is necessary for improved space‐time characteristics of model MJO. Both in simulations and ERA‐Interim data, meridional and vertical advection of MSE promotes eastward movement of MJO. In the model experiments, meridional advection of low‐level MSE anomaly is most significant in the vicinity of the ITCZ, indicating the importance of processes that determine the location of (single or double) ITCZ.

On the relationship between Atlantic Ni\xf1o variability and ocean dynamics

The Atlantic Niño is the dominant mode of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the eastern equatorial Atlantic. Current coupled global climate models struggle to reproduce its variability. This is thought to be partly related to an equatorial SST bias that inhibits summer cold tongue growth. Here, we address the question whether the equatorial SST bias affects the ability of a coupled global climate model to produce realistic dynamical SST variability. We assess this by decomposing SST variability into dynamical and stochastic components. To compare our model results with observations, we employ empirical linear models of dynamical SST that, based on the Bjerknes feedback, use the two predictors sea surface height and zonal surface wind. We find that observed dynamical SST variance shows a pronounced seasonal cycle. It peaks during the active phase of the Atlantic Niño and is then roughly 4–7 times larger than stochastic SST variance. This indicates that the Atlantic Niño is a dynamical phenomenon that is related to the Bjerknes feedback. In the coupled model, the SST bias suppresses the summer peak in dynamical SST variance. Bias reduction, however, improves the representation of the seasonal cold tongue and enhances dynamical SST variability by supplying a background state that allows key feedbacks of the tropical ocean–atmosphere system to operate in the model. Due to the small zonal extent of the equatorial Atlantic, the observed Bjerknes feedback acts quasi-instantaneously during the dynamically active periods of boreal summer and early boreal winter. Then, all elements of the observed Bjerknes feedback operate simultaneously. The model cannot reproduce this, although it hints at a better performance when using bias reduction.