Real Trade Flows Research Articles

Measuring the Connectedness of the Global Economy

We develop a technique to exploit forecast error variance decompositions to evaluate the macroeconomic connectedness embedded in any multi-country macroeconomic model with an approximate vector autoregressive (VAR) representation. We apply our technique to a large global VAR model covering 25 countries and derive vivid representations of macroeconomic connectedness. We find that the US exerts a dominant influence in the global economy and that Brazil, China, and the Eurozone are also globally significant. Recursive analysis over the period of the global financial crisis shows that shocks to global equity markets are transmitted rapidly and forcefully to real trade flows and real GDP.

The Falling Elasticity of Global Trade to Economic Activity: Testing the Demand Channel

Since the recovery from the great financial crisis in 2010, global real trade flows grew much slower than pre-crisis, in both absolute terms (growth rates) and relative terms (relative to GDP, from 2:1 in the great 1990's to 1:1 since 2012) A debate has arisen as to whether this global trade slowdown, and related falling trade-to-income elasticity, was structural or cyclical. Some papers emphasized the slowing pace of international vertical specialization. Other works emphasized the prominent role of aggregate demand, notably when weighted by its trade component. Our paper goes in this latter direction. We estimated the standard import equation for 38 advanced and developing countries over the period 1995-2015, using an import intensity-adjusted measure of aggregate demand (IAD), calculated from input-output tables at country level, and compared results with regressions using GDP. The integration of IAD allows us to predict 76% to 86% of the changes in global imports, a better performance than if using GDP. The use of IAD also enabled us to measure the relative importance of each component of demand, according to their trade intensity. The model is able to account for over 90% of the recent trade slowdown (2012-2015), with IAD alone explaining 80% of it. The slowdown in global value chains explains more than half of the remaining share of the global trade slowdown, not explained by demand factors. Protectionism does not come up as statistically significant.

The Cyclicality of the Income Elasticity of Trade

In the five years 2011-2015 global trade fell short of expectations to a much larger extent than global GDP. We show that two key features of real trade flows − their high volatility and their procyclicality − are the cause behind the cyclicality of the income elasticity of trade. This property implies that when real GDP growth is positive but below its long-run trend, then the income elasticity of trade is also below its own long-run trend. Therefore, when real GDP growth turns out to be weaker than expected, the forecast error on trade volumes is amplified by the fact that the income elasticity of trade also happens to be lower than predicted. We then analyze the implications of our findings for cross-country differences in the elasticity, the role played by long-run and cyclical factors in the weakness of trade in the aftermath of the Great Recession, and the accuracy of existing trade forecasts, which we significantly improve by exploiting real-time data on business conditions.

Measuring the Connectedness of the Global Economy

We develop a technique to evaluate macroeconomic connectedness in any multi-country macroeconomic model with an approximate VAR representation. We apply our technique to a large Global VAR covering 25 countries and derive vivid representations of the connectedness of the system. We show that the US, the Eurozone and the crude oil market exert a dominant influence in the global economy and that the Chinese and Brazilian economies are also globally significant. Recursive analysis over the period of the global financial crisis shows that shocks to global equity markets are rapidly and forcefully transmitted to real trade flows and real GDP.

The Adjustment of Global External Imbalances: Does Partial Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Trade Prices Matter?

Abstract This paper assesses whether partial exchange-rate pass-through to trade prices has important implications for the prospective adjustment of global external imbalances. To address this question, we develop and estimate an open-economy DSGE model in which pass-through is incomplete due to the presence of local currency pricing, distribution services, and a variable demand elasticity that leads to fluctuations in optimal markups. We find that the overall magnitude of trade adjustment is similar in a low and high pass-through environment with more adjustment in a low pass-through world occurring through movements in the terms of trade rather than real trade flows and through a larger response of the exchange rate.

The adjustment of global external balances: Does partial exchange-rate pass-through to trade prices matter?

This paper assesses whether partial exchange-rate pass-through to trade prices has important implications for the prospective adjustment of global external imbalances. To address this question, we develop and estimate an open-economy DSGE model in which pass-through is incomplete due to the presence of local currency pricing, distribution services, and a variable demand elasticity that leads to fluctuations in optimal markups. We find that the overall magnitude of trade adjustment is similar in a low and high pass-through environment with more adjustment in a low pass-through world occurring through movements in the terms of trade rather than real trade flows and through a larger response of the exchange rate.

On the sensitivity of the volume and volatility of bilateral trade flows to exchange rate uncertainty

We present an empirical investigation of the hypotheses that exchange rate uncertainty may have an impact on both the volume and variability of trade flows by considering a broad set of industrial countries' bilateral real trade flows over the period 1980–1998. Similar to the findings of earlier theoretical and empirical research, our first set of results shows that the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on trade flows is indeterminate. Our second set of results provides new and novel findings that exchange rate uncertainty has a consistent positive and significant effect on the volatility of bilateral trade flows, helping us better understand macroeconomic volatility.

The Internationalization of the Dollar and Trade Balance Adjustment

The pattern of international trade adjustment is affected by the continuing international role of the dollar and related evidence on exchange rate pass-through to prices. This paper argues that a depreciation of the dollar would have asymmetric effects on flows between the United States and its trading partners. With low exchange rate pass-through to U.S. import prices and high exchange rate pass-through to the local prices of countries consuming U.S. exports, the effect of dollar depreciation on real trade flows is dominated by an adjustment in U.S. export quantities, which increase as U.S. goods become cheaper in the rest of the world. Real U.S. imports are affected less because U.S. prices are more insulated from exchange rate movements - pass-through is low and dollar invoicing is high. In relation to prices, the effects on the U.S. terms of trade are limited: U.S. exporters earn the same amount of dollars for each unit shipped abroad, and U.S. consumers do not encounter more expensive imports. Movements in dollar exchange rates also affect the international trade transactions of countries invoicing some of their trade in dollars, even when these countries are not transacting directly with the United States.

ARE GRAINS OF SAND IN THE WHEELS OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCE SUFFICIENT TO DO THE JOB WHEN BOULDERS ARE OFTEN REQUIRED?*

This paper criticises the effectiveness of a Tobin tax in acting as a deterrent to short-run round trip speculation on exchange rate movements. It is demonstrated that given the usual magnitude of a proposed Tobin tax, the deterrent to short-term speculation will be negligible and in all likelihood smaller than the deterrent to real trade flows and arbitrage activities. Finally, an alternative proposal for preventing currency speculations while creating incentives for global full employment, based on Keynes's 1940s writings, is proposed.

Exchange Rates, Prices, and External Adjustment in the United States and Japan

This paper studies the responsiveness of external balances--trade volumes and prices--to changes in exchange rates. Our objectives are twofold: to provide an analytical review of the literature in this area and to assess the influence of exchange rate movements on external adjustment in the two countries whose external imbalances have dominated all others over the past decade, the United States and Japan.We find that the conventional partial-equilibrium model of the trade balance has performed generally quite well in predicting the path of the U.S. and Japanese external balance over the past decade. Second, in a partial-equilibrium setting, exchange-rate changes have a significant and substantial influence on movements in external balances. This view is supported by a massive empirical literature focusing on the estimation of price elasticities in trade, by casual inspection of the data, and by our own econometric estimates of trade elasticities. Third, Japanese real trade flows appear to be considerably less responsive to exchange-rate changes than U.S. real trade flows. This asymmetry can be traced only in part to evidence that Japanese exporter and U.S. exporters differ in the extent to which they pass-through exchange-rate changes to the foreign-currency prices of their exports. Finally, Japanese exporters tend to pass-through significantly less of any given percentage exchange rate change than U.S. exporters. Part of that difference is attributable to the greater sensitivity of Japanese production costs to exchange rate changes--Japanese export prices fall when the yen appreciates, partly because the prices of petroleum and other imported raw materials in Japan tend to fall in proportion to the appreciation of the yen.

Determinants of International Trade Flows

THIS paper models and estimates import demand and demand for export functions for 19 industrial countries. Although primary emphasis is placed on the period of generalized floating exchange rates, 1972 through 1980, estimates are also provided for the fixed exchange rate years (1957-1970), thus making possible a comparison between the two eras. Aside from the conventional income and price variables, the paper assesses the effect of variations in the exchange rate and in the expected exchange rate, on real trade flows. Additionally, it estimates an unrestricted lag structure of the effect of price and exchange rate variations on imports.