Real Property Prices Research Articles

Effectiveness and conduct of macroprudential policy in Indonesia in 2003–2020: Evidence from the structural VAR models

The paper examines the effectiveness of macroprudential policy in Indonesia and policy reactions to economic developments. Using the structural vector autoregression and data on the regulatory LTV ratio, we investigate the policy effectiveness in controlling credit growth and real property prices along with the effects on economic activity. We find that the LTV-based policy in Indonesia is effective in taming credit growth in the medium run. It, however, is not the case with real property prices whose response to policy changes is counterintuitive and resembles the price puzzle found in the studies on monetary policy. Moreover, our results lend moderate support to the effect of LTV policy on economic activity, especially in the non-COVID-19 sample. We also show that the LTV policy in Indonesia is conducted in an active and circumspective way. In a series of robustness checks, we demonstrate that the results hold when the ordering of variables is changed, alternative proxies for macroprudential policy, output gap, and financial conditions are employed, or the sample is limited to the non-COVID-19 period.

Legislative Survey on Tax Calculation Measures for Integrated Housing and Land Tax and Land Value Increment Tax

鑒於近年來房地價格異常上漲，逐步造成房地持有人與租戶間貧富差距拉大，因過往稅制對房地上漲的利潤只課徵偏低的稅負，加速了社會對房地投機的心態，並使房地產價格居高不下，政府為抑制房價快速飆漲，進而修正稅制而實行房地合一所得稅制度，期盼此一制度能有利房價回歸至合理價位。修正前我國房地出售時，土地應課徵土地增值稅，房屋應併入課徵所得稅，理論上，土地增值屬財產交易所得之一種（機會稅），應課徵所得稅。但因為我國已將土地之增值部分課徵土地增值稅，故不再課徵綜合所得稅，因此土地增值稅與綜合所得稅乃採分離課稅的形式。然而分離課稅不能正確衡量納稅義務人之納稅能力，基於漲價歸公的理念，新制房地合一所得稅希藉以補足原土地增值稅未核課部分來抑制房價，但新制實施至今仍有許多未盡之處仍有待討論，因此本文特別針對土地增值稅與房地合一所得稅在課徵範圍、課徵稅率、土地現值計徵標準、稅額計算之優惠及扣除項目等加以比較研究，並提出本文看法。Due to the unusual increase of real property prices in the recent years, the wealth gap between the property holders and the tenants has gradually widened. In the past, the government merely imposed the lower property tax on the rising property profits, so that it has accelerated the social speculation on premises and let the real property prices remain high. For balancing the rapid rise in real property prices, the government had adjusted the property tax and implement the “Integrated Housing and Land Tax” in order to guide the real property price into a reasonable price. Before the implementation of the new tax on per real property transaction, the land should be subject to the old “Land Value Increment Tax,” and the house should be calculated into the income tax. However, the old separately calculation measures on real property tax cannot reflect the taxpayer’s taxability. Based on the idea of confiscating the land profit increase, the new tax has been used to supplement the untaxed part of the old tax to curb the real property prices. However, there are still some imperfect parts on the new tax, this article thus hopes to specifically address and compare the scope, rate, quotation standard, calculation discount and the deduction items between the new “Integrated Housing and Land Tax” and the old “Land Value Increment Tax.”

Transportation Accessibility Benefit and the Dynamic Pattern of Real Estate Prices: Emerging Literature

Location preference is a repeatedly debated subject in urban land economics. By and large, these deliberations are either empirical or theoretical in nature. A sizeable number of the previous studies tackle the question of most favorable location provisional on a certain set of constrictions. Moreover, other studies are dedicated to elucidating the nature (worth) of a real property at a particular location. Nevertheless, the problem of ascertaining the indicators that influence real property price is general to both sets of studies. The current body of knowledge on the impact of transportation infrastructure on real estate prices is diverse in its outcome and result with particular reference to degree or extent of impact as well as bearing, ranging from a negative to an unimportant or a positive effect. On the literature results, multiple spatial lag variables were found to be statistically significant signifying that a number of features or attributes of adjoining residential accommodations have significant influence on the subject residential property's value. Whereas the largest part of earlier hedonic price empirical studies considered only selected factors (such as, positive as well as negative impacts of single transportation mode or means, positive or else negative impacts of multiple transportation modes) into account, the majority of recent empirical studies, however, considered all these key determinants, factors and indicators into consideration for analyzing joint impacts of transportation facility. Through considerable strategy, policy in addition to planning or forecasting implications underlying the association between transit oriented developments and real estate values and the difference between previous studies’ outcomes and results, there is a strong necessity and requirement for further study and analysis to ascertain an advanced, reliable in addition to dependable level of conclusiveness.

Causality in the Polish Housing Market: Evidence from Biggest Cities

The aim of the paper is to examine the causal relationship between the real property prices in biggest Polish cities within VAR model framework. Both offer and transactional prices are used. Existing stock market, as well as primary market are analysed. The data are quarterly and taken from 17 biggest Polish cities. The analysed period is 2006-2015. Both VAR and VECM approaches were applied. Their limitations and possible predictions were discussed. A significant interaction between various regional real estate markets in Poland has been observed. However, the leading role of the capital city could not be confirmed by the methodology used.

The Impact of TOM on Prices in the US Housing Market

Search theory shows that real property prices and marketing durations are simultaneously determined and positively related. Yet, empirical studies find positive, negative, and insignificant parameter estimates on the time-on-the-market (TOM) variable in price models. Using a dataset well suited to the research question, this article investigates reasons for the divergence between the theoretical and empirical results. Our test equations examine the quality of instrumental variables, severe overpricing, atypicality, structure quality, loss aversion, market tightness as well as measures unique to our data such as sellers’ income levels, reasons for sale, and urgency. We find that weak instrumental variables account for the varied empirical relations between transaction prices and TOM.

State of Art Report on Variables Affecting Housing Value

Background/Objectives: Physical characteristics of real property are considered as the deciding factors of housing value. Value calculated on the basis of only property characteristics may not give accurate figure. This can be due to ignorance in considering variables which indirectly affect the value. Methods/Statistical Analysis: Real property prices vary due to impact of not only property characteristics but also macroeconomic variables. Impact of macroeconomic variables is indirect and is difficult to assess in terms of quantum of variation in value of property. It is required to study available literature to summarize the probable attributes of real property value. Findings: Variables have been identified and presented in two categories namely intrinsic variables and extrinsic variables. Applications/Improvements: Wide range of variables from gross domestic product of nation to type of fixtures in the house affect property value. Appraisers should know which variables to be given consideration to get fairly accurate result.

The Analysis of Differences in Residential Property Price Indices

Abstract Residential property price indices can serve as a useful tool in the practice of real property market analysts, investment advisers, property developers, certified property appraisers, estate agents and managers. They can also be applied in property price valorization in specific legal positions. The Polish Act on Real Estate Management puts an obligation on the President of the Central Statistical Office to announce real property price indices, but the CSO fails to fulfill this obligation. The author’s rationale for this article is to contribute to works on rules of how to build property price indices. Presented within are the results of research on determining the price indices of such types of residential property as: a part of a building constituting a separate property and strata titles in housing cooperatives. The flats were divided into categories by floor area and by their location in 16 voivodeship capitals. The major purpose of the study is to prove that the prices of flats of different floor area change at different rates. Consequently, it seems worth considering whether a more detailed segmentation of the real estate market would be worthwhile for the sake of more accurate real property price indicators.

Gentrification on the Example of Suburban Parts of the Szczecin Urban Agglomeration

Abstract Gentrification is a term first used by Ruth Glass in 1964 in reference to the process of taking over and revitalizing the degraded housing resources in the London Borough of Islington by their middle class owners. Ruth Glass discerned the impact of the improved living conditions in the gentrified area on ownership conditions, the appreciation of prices of land and houses, and changes in the social class structure. Nowadays, we can observe three types of changes taking place in gentrified parts of cities: economic, social and cultural ones. The author of this article presents the evolution of gentrification and points out the advantages and threats brought about by this process, including its effect on urban space and real property prices. She identifies the gentrification processes in Poland and their social impact, and verifies the hypothesis that contemporary gentrification, apart from being a physical process, is above all, a social and cultural one. On the example of some parts of the Szczecin urban agglomeration, she shows that gentrification, extending into the suburbs and rural areas, results in irreversible changes in land use and social structure.

How the UK economy weathered the financial storm

Prior to the global financial crisis of 2008, the UK had the largest banking sector asset to GDP ratio among large countries, and had experienced rapid real property price increases as well as a persistent current account deficit in the preceding decade. These factors, together with its role as an international financial centre, made the UK economy particularly vulnerable to the onset of the global financial crisis. Although the initial drop in real GDP was steep, we provide evidence that the economy has weathered the financial storm better than many feared, and has fared no worse than its peer group of major economies. In this paper we assess the reasons underlying this outcome, including the possibility of exaggerated vulnerabilities, global economic recovery, the flexible supply side of the UK economy, as well as fiscal, financial and monetary policy interventions. Our analysis suggests that all of these factors played a role in cushioning the impact on the UK real economy, leading to a more benign outcome than most observers expected.

100 Years of Commercial Real Estate Prices in Manhattan

This article is able to put together a database of 86 repeat‐sales transactions for office properties in lower and midtown Manhattan spanning the years from 1899 to 1999. Using this very limited database, decade‐interval changes in real property prices are estimated—with varying degrees of precision. Our conclusions are two fold. First, adjusting for inflation, commercial office property values were 30% lower in 1999 than they were in 1899. Second, within any decade values often rise and fall by 20–50% in real terms. With these results, the long‐term historic return to New York commercial property must mostly comprise yield with capital gains limited to general inflation. Other historical studies consistent with this conclusion are reviewed.

100 Years of Commercial Real Estate Prices in Manhattan

This paper is able to put together a data base of 86 repeat sales transactions for office properties in lower and mid town Manhattan spanning the years from 1899 through 1999. Using this very limited data base, decade-interval changes in real property prices are estimated - with varying degrees of precision. Our conclusions are two. First, adjusting for inflation, commercial office property values are 30% lower in 1999 than they were in 1899. Secondly, within any decade values often rise and fall by 20-50% in real terms. With these results, the long term historic return to New York commercial property must be mostly be comprised of yield with capital gains limited to general inflation. Other historical studies consistent with this conclusion are reviewed.

The Determinants of Private Sector Credit in Industrialised Countries: Do Property Prices Matter?

Episodes of boom and bust in credit markets have often coincided with cycles in economic activity and property markets. The coincidence of these cycles has already been widely documented in the literature, but few studies address the issue in a formal way. In this study we analyse the determinants of credit to the private non-bank sector in 16 industrialised countries since 1980 based on a cointegrating VAR. Cointegration tests suggest that the long-run development of credit cannot be explained by standard credit demand factors. But once real property prices, measured as a weighted average of real residential and real commercial property prices, are added to the system, we are able to identify long-run relationships linking real credit positively to real GDP and real property prices and negatively to the real interest rate. These long-run relationships may be interpreted as long-run extended credit demand relationships, but we may also capture effects on credit supply. Impulse response analysis based on a standard Cholesky decomposition reveals that there is significant two-way dynamic interaction between bank credit and property prices. We also find that innovations to the short-term real interest rate have a strong and significant negative effect on bank credit, GDP and property prices.

Economic Depreciation of Residential Real Estate: Microlevel Space and Time Analysis

Three elements in the study of real estate depreciation that warrant further consideration are uncovered: the spatial variation of depreciation on a micro scale, the variability of depreciation within a single market across time and the recognition of land value as an influence in modeling real property prices. Taken together, these three dimensions provide an opportunity to further expand the understanding of residential economic depreciation while enhancing the predictive power of real estate market models. The analytical results, utilizing a land‐value‐adjusted hedonic model, indicate that both the intramarket location and the year in which the property sold have significant impacts on the observed rate of economic depreciation. Such information is vitally important to policymakers and others interested in accurate modeling of real estate markets.

Financial liberalization, crises, and Malaysian policy responses

The Malaysian currency and financial crises since mid-1997 are shown to be due to financial liberalization rather than excessive regulation. The quasi-peg to the US dollar and opening up of stock markets encouraged a greater inflow of foreign savings to supplement the already high domestic savings rate, resulting in inflation of shares and real property prices. Shorttermism has also accentuated the bias against longer term productive investments. The quasi-peg not only encouraged unhedged borrowing from abroad, but also became a target for currency speculators as regional currencies appreciated with the US dollar despite declining export competitiveness and growth. Meanwhile, financial liberalization allowed lucrative opportunities for taking advantage of falling currencies, and together with unjudicious official responses, transformed a correction into a collapse of the ringgit and the stock market. Contractionary policy responses — favored by the International Monetary Fund and the financial community — are likely to accentuate the resultant economic slowdown.

Positional accuracy in spatial databases

The quality of a geometrical database, especially in urban areas with high real property prices, is an important issue whenever the introduction of an information system is under discussion. The desired high quality usually conflicts with the budget available. Generally, there is a lack of concepts of expressing the given accuracy and of knowledge to identify the required accuracy. The purpose of the paper is to show methods to describe the accuracy of geometric data digitized from existing maps. Under the assumption of independent normally distributed coordinate errors with expectation zero, the distribution of positional errors is derived. The analysis of a sample of 571 digitized points shows: that empirical data contains random and systematic errors, and how this violation of the assumption affects the error distribution. The propagation of positional errors and some possibilities to characterize the accuracy of straight lines and of polygons are discussed.