Real Profit Research Articles

Conflict, Inertia, and Phillips Curve from a Sraffian Standpoint

ABSTRACT The recent post-Keynesian debate on conflict inflation revolves around plausible magnitudes of the parameters of the standard model. We assess this debate by examining the economic meaning of the ‘bargaining’ and ‘indexation’ parameters, and proposing a reinterpretation in which the bargaining power is reflected in the relative frequency of wage and price increases in a period. Inflation then depends on the size of the inconsistent distributive claims and the absolute frequency of wage and price increases. Distribution depends on the relative frequency of such increases. From the latter we derive the real wage and profit resistance parameters, which determine the structural degree of inflation inertia. By adding the employment rate as a determinant of the desired real wage, we get a conflict-augmented Phillips curve. We show how different assumptions on the real resistance parameters affect the shape of the Phillips curve and the distributive outcomes in different conflict inflation models. A NAIRU occurs only when there is both full real wage and real profit resistance. Conflict generates inflation (not acceleration) with less extreme assumptions. The old-type conflict-augmented Phillips curve, with income distribution depending on the relative frequency of wage and price adjustments, is the most plausible case.

APPL stock price prediction based on LSTM and GRU

In particular, LSTM and GRU are two frequently used models in stock price prediction. With this in mind, this study will test these two useful tools from three aspects, actual using, limitations and possible future improving. Based on the stock price of (APPL), Apple company from 2022 to 2023. There are a lot of past research shows that LSTM and GRU are useful in forecasting stock price. However, one important part to notice is the rely on historical data. These two models may find difficult to address the correct prediction and make real profit. As a result, the usefulness of LSTM and GRU are tested by the unstable stock market. Additionally, overfitting can be a big problem. To make the models more useful and eliminate limitations. In this research, there will be some real examples of change in stock price based on graphs. There will be some future strategy to solve issues on LSTM and GRU, from possible improvements on the current reliability on historical data, and the easily influenced stock market. Overall, LSTM and GRU can provide useful details based on the past data of certain stock. However, the limitations of these two models are a big issue.

Analisis Implementasi Bagi Hasil Pada Simpanan Akad Mudharabah dalam Tinjauan Fiqh Muamalah

This research has the aim of knowing that the implementation of Profit Sharing at BMT Amanah Ummah Jambangan Surabaya Branch on Mudharabah contract savings is appropriate in terms of Muamalah Fiqh. This research is field research, namely by collecting data obtained directly from the field. This method is a descriptive qualitative method, with data sources from observations, direct interviews and documentation. And data analysis uses data reduction, data presentation, then drawing conclusions. The result is, BMT Amanah Ummah Jambangan Surabaya Branch has set a profit sharing ratio of 20% of real profits for Shahibul Maal and 80% for Mudharib. These provisions have been determined by BMT, then agreed between both parties. Muamalah Fiqh review regarding the implementation of this profit sharing, in terms of harmony and the terms of cooperation according to Jumhur Ulama have been fulfilled. Also from a legal perspective, the fulfillment of the pillars and conditions of Mudharabah have been fulfilled.

Funding Valuation to Support Disaggregation of Value Chain in HLMC Hospital Yogyakarta

The economic cycle always goes through boom-and-bust cycles. When the economy slows down, the government will increase the money circulation; when the economy is heating up, the government will slow down the money circulation. In this regard, interest rates, credit control, currency policies, and so on play a role. The COVID-19 pandemic era accelerated the economic cycle relatively quickly. During the pandemic, the government provided massive stimuli to the economy, and during the recovery phase, the government tightened financial policies again. Such actions have made the global investment market experience tumultuous twists and turns. Corporate funding, which was relatively easier before, has become difficult. Companies once again have to adjust their business models to their original goals: value creation, generating profit and margin, and ultimately producing positive cash flow. Adapting to the changing demands of the business environment, shifting from a “growth at all costs” mindset to prioritizing “more sustainable profit,” companies must acknowledge that the essence of business activities is to generate real cash flow and tangible profits. This study compares different approaches to valuing companies: the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Revenue Multiple, and PE Multiples. DCF takes a valuation approach based on projections of the company’s future cash flows and real profits operationally, whereas revenue and PE multiples offer simpler valuation methods by emphasizing relative comparisons within similar industries. This simplification aids investors in evaluating potential profits when executing exit strategies. Therefore, the valuation method using DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) is not as aggressive as the valuation method using exit multiples, such as P/E (Price/Earnings) Multiple, let alone Revenue Multiple. This research serves as a benchmark for the funding valuation method to support the disaggregation outlined by HLMC Hospital Yogyakarta in the field of skin, aesthetic, and wellness centers.

Credit risk prediction based on loan profit: Evidence from Chinese SMEs

Credit risk prediction should maximize a bank’s loan profit. This paper performs modified profit-based logistic regression (MPLR) by constructing an objective function with the maximum profit as the objective. The optimal weights of two kinds of samples are obtained by constructing an objective function based on the sum of the weighted profit acquired in default and nondefault cases. To obtain greater loan profit, each customer's optimal discrimination threshold is determined by comparing the expected profit that the customer is predicted to produce in the default and nondefault scenarios. The research results show that the predicted and real profits obtained by our model are significantly higher than those obtained by 16 other classification models. The utilized weights can improve the accuracy and profit of the MPLR model, but the discrimination threshold is more important than the weights. The sample balancing process may not necessarily improve the classification accuracy and profit because it can reduce the Type-II error while increasing the induced Type-I error.

Technical and Economic Analysis of the Use of Electricity Generated by a BIPV System for an Educational Establishment in Poland

In the face of ongoing climate changes and the current geopolitical situation, Renewable Energy Sources (RES) are continuously gaining popularity in many countries. Objectives related to environmental protection and the use of RES set by different countries all over the world, as well as by the European Union (EU), are becoming priorities for many. The increase in the installed capacity of photovoltaic systems has been growing steadily for several years, leading to the creation of new systems accompanying PV installations; this phenomenon has also been observed in Poland. This paper presents a photovoltaic system in the form of a bicycle shed next to a school building as an example of building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) without connection to the power grid. It was shown that the energy consumption profile should be properly correlated with the production profile, otherwise significant losses occur. Alternative methods to improve the correlation of production and energy consumption by using SCADA systems or building automation to properly manage the electricity generation and consumption installation were also proposed. Furthermore, it was shown that adopting a fixed discount rate in financial analyses can distort the picture of real profits. An analysis of the changes in the NPV ratio using variable discount rates was carried out when analyzing the entire life of the solar plant.

Peran Koneksi Politik Dalam Memoderasi Pengaruh Karakteristik Dewan Direksi Terhadap Manajemen Laba Riil

This study aims to examine the characteristics of the board of directors on real earnings management with political connections as a moderator. The characteristics of the board of directors used in this research include managerial share ownership, educational background, tenure and gender of the board of directors. The research sample used is a manufacturing company listed on the IDX. SAMPLING using purposive sampling and obtained as many as 348 observations. Panel data is processed with the GLS model. The results of the study found that board of directors share ownership has a negative effect on real earnings management. The educational background of the board of directors in accounting, business or finance was found to have a negative effect on real earnings management. A board of directors with a long term of office was found to have no influence on real earnings management, while research results between the gender of the female board of directors were found to have a significant influence on real earnings management. Political connection was found to have no effect on board of directors share ownership, tenure on real earnings management. Political connections were found to have a negative influence between the educational background of the board of directors on real earnings management. The presence of political connections will strengthen the negative influence of the educational background of the board of directors on earnings management. Political connections were found to have a significant positive effect or to moderate the relationship between female board of directors gender and real profit management.
 Keywords: Real Earnings Management; Political Connection; Board of Directors Characteristic; Female Board of Directors

Post-Keynesian Economics: New Foundations by Marc LavoieChapter 8: Inflation Theory

ABSTRACT The conflicting claims approach to the theory of inflation so thoroughly surveyed and well presented in Chapter 8 of Lavoie's [(2022). Post-Keynesian Economics. New Foundations. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing] book is deservedly becoming increasingly consensual among heterodox (and even some notable mainstream) macroeconomists. However, the relevance of a concept (and the very existence of) a single NAIRU (Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) derived consistently from the very premises of the conflicting claims approach is still very controversial. In this review article, we will be to argue that a NAIRU is not really useful for the conflicting claims approach. The key aspects explored here are: (1) the different roles of hysteresis in the output and labor markets; (2) the assumptions concerning real profit markups of firms; and (3) the extent to which money wage increases actually incorporate past (or expected) inflation. We also add some remarks regarding the role of changes in international commodity prices and nominal exchange rates that further illustrate the necessary relation between conflicting claims inflation and the theory of distribution and relative prices.

CRIMINAL LAW REVIEW OF INVESTMENT MANAGERS WHO IMPLEMENT PYRAMID SCHEMES

Indonesian people's interest in investment is increasing, this is in line with current technological advances. The number of capital market investors in mid-October 2021 grew by around 68 percent from the end of 2020 which reached 3.88 million people. With advances in technology and the rapid flow of information in cyberspace, many people only think about the benefits to be gained from an investment and have no knowledge or lack of understanding about investments and their risks. This is proven by the large number of people who are victims of an illegal investment that implements schemes, for example in the investment case of capital injection (sunmod) for medical devices, the number of victims is estimated to reach 3,000 people with a loss of Rp. 1.2 Trillion. The schematic diagram is also interpreted as a fake investment system that pays old participants from the money of the new participants they recruit, not from real profits. This scheme is aimed at collapsing, because the revenue if any, will hurt the participants. The illegality of the scheme lies in the incurring of losses at a rate below the loss of the amount of money invested in the business. Investment business activities that apply schemes can be held criminally accountable for violating Law Number 7 of 2014 concerning Explanation of Trade Article 9. Law Number 8 of 1999 concerning Consumer Protection Article 8 paragraph (1) letters a, d, e, f, Article 9 paragraph (1) letters c, e, j, k, Article 10, Article 13 paragraph 1, Article 15, and Article 17 paragraph (1) letters a, b, c, d. Regulation of the Minister of Trade Number 70 of 2019 concerning the Direct Distribution of Goods Article 21 letter k, Law Number 21 of 2008, Article 59. Law of the Republic of Indonesia Number 10 of 1998 concerning Amendments to Law Number 7 of 1992 concerning Banking Article 46. ​​​​Law Number 8 of 1995 concerning Capital Markets Article 103. Article 378 of the Criminal Code concerning fraud.

Stochastic economic feasibility assessment and risk analysis of a quarry mine focusing on the Brazilian tax system

An economic feasibility study must consider the uncertainties inherent to a mining project, whose risks must be quantified properly to enable accurate decision-making. Studies previously carried out through the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology in the project evaluated here - a quarry whose operations are currently interrupted, located in Pernambuco, Brazil, formerly taxed under the presumed profit regime - indicated a positive Net Present Value (NPV) in the deterministic scenario, therefore projecting a profitable project. However, a probabilistic analysis using Monte Carlo simulations indicated only a 49.98% occurrence probability for this NPV. An assessment focused on the company's taxation was never carried out, which is a gap that the present study intends to fill, in addition to evaluating the feasibility of immediate investment in this project. Furthermore, this is a gap in Brazilian literature in general, which does not take into account the taxation system in their economic assessments. In this context, considering scenarios whose taxation was based on real and presumed profit regimes, we reassessed the cash flows of this quarry and performed deterministic and probabilistic economic analyses, and compared the results of both scenarios. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the production rate would be the most impactful variable in the project's NPV, considering the six variables assessed. Hence, it was verified in both deterministic and probabilistic analyses that taxation under real profit, results in a higher economic return with a 56.08% probability of the NPV being positive and with the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) higher than infation (SELIC rate) at 4.81%; the taxation under the presumed profit, on the other hand, obtained respective probabilities of 46.54% and 3.23%. However, with the chances of obtaining some profit (NPV greater than zero) at the order of 50% and a minimal chance of the IRR being greater than the SELIC rate adopted at the time of this study, we would advise against investing in this venture. Moreover, even if the current moment is not the most suitable for investment in this sector, regardless of the production rate assessed in the probabilistic analysis, taxation on the real profit regime presented a greater economic return than taxation on the presumed profit regime., indicating that, for the parameters considered in this study, the first would be the most appropriate choice of tax system for this type of enterprise in Brazil.

Predicting firm performance and size using machine learning with a Bayesian perspective

This paper investigates the issue of predicting the financial performance of firms in registered manufacturing in developing countries using machine learning methods along with economic theory to explain the findings. While literature suggests that predictability of top line measures related to sales is lower compared to bottom line measures such as net profits for small informal establishments in developing countries, we find the opposite holds true for firms in registered manufacturing in the food processing industry in India based on the results from machine learning techniques of Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), boosted trees, bootstrap forests, and regression tree algorithms. BART models in validation outperformed the other algorithms in predictability of the dependent variables. Across ten validation studies, BART had an average R2 ranging from 0.922 to 0.934 and boosted tree models had an average R2 ranging from 0.873 to 0.905 for predicting sales. A key significant independent variable for predicting sales across all categories and algorithms was real raw material expenses explaining approximately 83% to 88% of the total sums of squares in all validations. This is in line with the realities of the food processing industry, which is intensive in its raw material usage. The dependent variable ‘profits’ (as measured by real profits before depreciation, interest, taxes and amortization, ‘real_pbdita’) was more difficult to predict relative to sales. BART models again outperformed the other algorithms in validation with an average R2 ranging from 0.745 to 0.818. Key significant variables in the models were more diverse where raw material expenses, compensation to employees, and net- or total-fixed assets explained the largest proportions of the total sums of squares. The results from a machine learning approach with a Bayesian perspective can enhance the understanding of the mechanisms that translate sales into profits for registered manufacturing, thereby aiding policy-making for small businesses in the formal sector in developing countries.

Study of the Mexican Cocoa Market: An Analysis of Its Competitiveness (2010–2021)

Cocoa is one of the main products consumed worldwide that is similar to coffee; a primary difference between coffee and cocoa is that cocoa is produced in developing countries and is consumed mainly in industrialized countries. Mexico was the country that made cocoa known to the world. The objective of the study was to analyze the competitiveness at the macroeconomic level of the Mexican cocoa product in the world during the period 2010–2021. A macroeconomic analysis was carried out using six indices: Balassa index, Vollrath Index, Additive Revealed Competitive Advantage Ratio, Trade Openness Index, Export and Import Index, and Self-Sufficiency Index. The industrialization of cocoa is the denaturation of the product, which is launched onto the market with little or no nutritional content, due to the alteration of the raw material with formulas based on vegetable fats, artificial colors, and flavors. For example, a commercial chocolate bar can have only 25–35% cocoa mass, semisweet chocolate bars can vary from 45 to 99% cocoa, while white chocolate bars only contain cocoa butter, milk, and sugar. These facts result in a decrease in the competitiveness of the product in the international market, in addition to the effects produced on its profitability for the producer—an increase in the cost of raw materials and a drop in real profits. These factors generate dependency on the international market for the production.

The Relationship between Earnings Management, Related Party Transactions and Firm Performance with the Mediation of the Role of Internal Control

The main purpose of the current research was to determine the relationship between profit management, transactions with related parties and company performance with the moderating role of internal control in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 2013 to 2021. This research is from the perspective of the implementation process of a quantitative research, from the perspective of the result of its implementation, an applied research, from the perspective of the goal of conducting an analytical research, from the perspective of the logic of conducting a deductive-inductive research, and from the perspective of the time dimension of a longitudinal research. So it is an event. The information used in this research was collected using the library method and the software of Rehvard-Noin and Tadbir Pardaz and the database of the Statistics Department of the Stock Exchange Company. The studied population was all the companies accepted in the Tehran Stock Exchange, 121 companies were selected as a statistical sample by systematic elimination method. In this research, Excel software was used for data processing and Eviews software was used for data analysis. The results of the panel data model showed that there is a positive and significant relationship between real profit management and accrual-based profit management with the financial performance of companies. The results showed that the quality of internal control can play a moderating role on the relationship between real profit management and financial performance of companies. In other words, the results showed that the quality of internal control can increase the effect of real profit management on the financial performance of companies from 0.2267 to 0.2837 units.

Understanding farmers’ decision-making on agri-environmental schemes: A case study from Saxony, Germany

As one of the cornerstones of the European Common Agricultural Policy, agri-environmental schemes (AES) are compensating farmers for any additional costs or income foregone when implementing agri-environmental measures. However, until today, the uptake of AES remains below expectation. This paper aims to contribute to the analysis of why farmers do or do not adopt AES. It proposes a novel heuristic framework, derived from a qualitative content analysis of 14 semi-structured interviews with farmers from the Mulde River Basin (Saxony, Germany). Based on the empirical reconstruction of farmers’ decision-making processes, the heuristic framework provides an analytical distinction between decision-making context, leeway in decision-making and decision-influencing factors. Using the heuristic framework, we observe a decision-making sequence: In the decision-making context – the first element of the decision-making process – farmers face specific farm characteristics and handle non-AES related land-use commitments and land-use decisions. Only if this context allows farmers to devote land to AES, can they explore the funding and technical availability of individual AES – the second element of the decision-making process. Where farmers have such leeway in decision-making, actual decision-influencing factors – the third element of the decision-making process - such as economic, administrative or legal factors become relevant. We find that farmers’ AES adoption can only be increased by better understanding the restrictions farmers face along the decision-making process. The sequence and practical meaning of decision-making elements is crucial to understand how farmers make acreage-by-acreage decisions with regard to AES. In specific constellations, economic incentives and administrative factors of AES may be less important than non-AES related land-use commitments or even features of the AES application software. As a consequence, increasing AES uptake requires a closer focus on the decision-making context and the leeway in decision-making, rather than aiming at isolated decision-influencing factors. Despite being based on a small and unbalanced sample, the heuristic framework used here can help inform policy-making and future research on farmers´ AES decisions by taking the sequence and complex relations of decision-making elements into account. And although our results provide limited transferability we conclude that farmers’ practical experiences need to be better integrated into AES policy and suggest a paradigm shift towards real profit for farmers’ environmental services.

REAL EARNING MANAGEMENT ANALYSIS ON COMPANY’S PERFORMANCE (CASE STUDY IN PANDEMIC TIME OF COVID-19)

The first case of Covid-19 was first stated in Indonesia on March 2, 2020. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) better known as the Corona virus is a new type of coronavirus that can be easily transmitted. Indonesia first imposed the large scale social restrictions called PSBB policy for the first time on April 15, 2020. PSBB is one of the government's efforts to break the chain of spread of Covid-19. There was a decrease of 70% of companies that conducted IPOs from before the Covid-19 period and during the Covid-19 period. The company's performance is the crucial matter in achieving the company's targets and for increasing returns for shareholders. The company's performance in this study was measured using Return On Assets (ROA). The ROA ratio is often used by management to measure the performance of a company and assess operational performance in utilizing the resources owned by the company. Real earning management is one of the ways that can be done by the management to achieve profit targets. In this study, it will focus on real earnings management. The selection of samples using purposive sampling and hypothesis tests is conducted using SPSS 25 with a signification rate of 0.05. The study shows abnormal CFO and discretionary expenses which are factors in measuring real profit management have a significant effect on the company's financial performance.

The effect of real earnings management on the firm value :An applied study on a sample of industrial companies listed in the Iraqi Stock Exchange for the period (2011-2018)

The research aims to show the extent of the impact of managing real profits on the company's value in the Iraqi environment for the period from (2011-2018). On a sample of (12) Iraqi industrial companies. The real profit management was measured by the (Roy Chowdhury, 2006) model, while the company's value was measured by the Tobin's Q formula. Where investors build their investment decisions based on the net profit, and from this standpoint, company managers resort to manipulating profits in order to mislead investors and then influence their investment decisions. The study reached a set of conclusions, the most important of which is the existence of a positive and significant effect of managing real profits on the company's value. As for the recommendations, the most important of them are that company managers, before they get involved in managing for profits, should think about its results, especially the real ones. Although it has a positive impact on the value of the company in the short term. However, it has a very negative impact on the value of the company in the future. Thus, corporate directors and external auditors were exposed to the judiciary and the matter.

The impact of the quality of the external audit on real earnings management: An applied study on a sample of companies listed in the Iraq Stock Exchange

The research aims to demonstrate the impact of the high quality of external audit on the management of real profits in the Iraqi environment. For the period from (2011-2018). On a sample of (12) Iraqi industrial companies. The quality of the external audit was measured by the rotation of the external auditor. While the management of real profits was measured through the (Roychowdhury, 2006) model. Where the high quality of external audit is an important element to reduce the management of real profits, and this is what prompted international organizations for the audit profession to pay attention to the quality of external audit and how to achieve it by setting international auditing standards that aim to achieve an audit process. High quality. The study reached a set of conclusions, the most important of which is the existence of a negative and significant effect of the quality of external audit in managing real profits. As for the most important recommendations, company managers should stay away from profit management activities. Especially real. Although it has a positive effect on the value of the company in the short run. However, it has a very negative impact on the company's future value. Thus, company directors and auditors were exposed to the judiciary and the issue.

Deferred Tax On Real Profit Management With Tax Planning As Moderating

This research examines the.effect.of current taxes, deferred.tax.and.tax amnesty on real earnings management.and tax planning as moderating. The sample is from.the property;and;real;estate;companies;listed;on;IDX-IC during 2013 until 2019. Based on purposive sampling, the selected sample is 23 companies, the total sample is 138 observations. The hypothesis is carried out using MRA through Eviews 10. The;results;of this;study;indicate;that;current;taxes, deferred;tax;expense, ;tax amnesty;and;tax;planning have;a;positive;effect;on;real;earnings;management. In addition, this study reveals that there is moderating effect of tax planning on the relationship;between;current;tax;and deferred;tax;expense;with;real;earnings;management. In addition, management can use the results of this study as consideration in deciding whether to take real earnings management actions or not, which in turn will affect the sustainability of the company.

Lean Technology in Construction

Abstract: Since the 1940’s, lean production principles have evolved and were successfully implemented by Toyota Motor Company. Lean construction is a production and management-based approach to a project. An increasing number of construction academics and professionals are storming the ramparts of conventional construction management in an attempt to deliver better value to owners while making real profits. As a result, lean-based tools have emerged and are successfully applied to simple and sophisticated construction projects. Generally, lean construction projects are easier to manage, safer, completed sooner, cost less and are of higher quality. Thanks to the success of the lean production system in manufacturing the construction industry has adapted lean techniques to eliminate waste and increase profit. It is a way to design production system to minimize the wastage of material, time, and effort in order to generate the maximum possible amount of value. The main objective of this study is to analyze and implement the lean construction practices. Keywords: lean construction, economic, safe, construction management

Evolutionary Optimization of Control Strategies for Non-Stationary Immersion Environments

We consider the problem of evolutionary self-organization of control strategies using the example of speculative trading in a non-stationary immersion market environment. The main issue that obstructs obtaining real profit is the extremely high instability of the system component of observation series which implement stochastic chaos. In these conditions, traditional techniques for increasing the stability of control strategies are ineffective. In particular, the use of adaptive computational schemes is difficult due to the high volatility and non-stationarity of observation series. That leads to significant statistical errors of both kinds in the generated control decisions. An alternative approach based on the use of dynamic robustification technologies significantly reduces the effectiveness of the decisions. In the current work, we propose a method based on evolutionary modeling, which supplies structural and parametric self-organization of the control model.