Real Interest Parity Research Articles

Financial market integration of emerging markets: Heavy tails, structural shifts, nonlinearity, and asymmetric persistence

This study examines the financial market integration of emerging markets into international financial markets with regards to the real interest rate parity hypothesis. We focus on accounting for heavy-tailed (non-normal) distributions, structural shifts, nonlinearity, and asymmetric adjustment by utilizing recent methodological developments in unit root analysis. With data from January 2000 to May 2020 for 21 emerging markets, we find that considering heavy-tailed distributions in an asymmetric persistence framework with nonlinearity and structural shifts appears to be crucial in analyzing the financial market integrations of emerging markets. The nonlinear quantile unit root test with smooth structural breaks supports the real interest rate parity hypothesis in 18 out of 21 countries. An interesting result is that the conventional and quantile approaches are unable to support the validity of real interest parity in China. Our findings provide sound implications, which are discussed.

Smooth breaks and nonlinear mean reversion in real interest parity: Evidence from East Asian countries

ABSTRACTThis study aims to explore the empirical validity of the real interest rate parity (RIP) hypothesis for East Asian countries using Japan as the base country. To this end, we employ the recently proposed unit root tests of Christopoulos and Leon-Ledesma that account for both multiple smooth structural breaks of unknown form and nonlinear mean reversion in the series. Our empirical results uncover overwhelming evidences in favor of the RIP hypothesis for the whole countries in our sample. More specifically, through a Fourier approximation, it is observed that all real interest rate differentials display a mean-reverting behavior around an infrequently smooth-breaking mean, with the breaks being in accordance with the financial reforms and economic crises witnessed by the countries. Moreover, the degree of mean reversion appears to vary nonlinearly with the size of real interest rate appreciations and depreciations.

Real interest parity: Evidence from trade partnerships

This study investigates real interest parity (RIP) in trade partnerships, and whether RIP depends on the type of trade partnership, using short term interest rates and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) obtained from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) database between 1975 and 2016. The investigation employs unit root and stationarity tests on interest rate differentials to study RIP between countries using Germany, United States, and Japan as base countries for selected countries in the European Union (EU), member countries of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and selected Asian countries respectively. The results show evidence in favor of RIP in the selected EU countries. The interest rate differentials of Belgium, France, Italy, Spain and the UK with respect to Germany confirms a long-run relationship and real interest rate parity. There is also evidence to support the RIP in the other trade partnerships. With the exception of Mexico, the interest rate differentials for all the countries are stationary, and each quickly reverts to its mean.

Examining real interest parity: Which component reverts quickest and in which regime?

This article re-examines real interest parity (RIP), focusing upon which component of real interest parity drives convergence to parity. We find that it is the reversion of inflation rather than nominal interest rates which is the primary source of convergence to RIP. Nominal interest rate differentials are found to be persistent during both periods. Furthermore, we additionally find that mean reversion in the inflation differentials is faster during the Gold Standard period.

Real interest rate parity hypothesis in post-Soviet countries: Evidence from unit root tests

In this paper we investigate the real interest parity hypothesis for ten post-Soviet transition countries with respect to Russia, the USA and Germany. For this purpose, we employ conventional linear unit root tests as well as a nonlinear unit root test developed by Kapetanios et al. (2003) to examine stationarity properties of real interest rate differentials of the transition countries vis-à-vis Russia, the USA, and Germany. The results provide evidence in favor of real interest rate parity for most of the series, especially when possible nonlinearities in the adjustment process are taken into account.

Parity reversion in real interest rate in the Asian countries: Further evidence based on local-persistent model

This paper examines the validity of real interest parity (RIP) for 10 Asian economies over the period 1977–2012 (quarterly frequency). The evidence based on two-break unit root tests reveals that majority of the real interest rate differentials (RIDs) with respect to Germany and the US are stationary, but this appears not to be the case for the Japan-based RIDs. Contrary to these results, the point estimates and the confidence intervals (CIs) of half-lives based on the Phillips et al.'s (2001) local-persistent model provide a clear-cut conclusion on RIP: Most of the RIDs take less than a year to adjust back to their respective equilibrium values, with notably tighter CIs than what has been suggested by earlier literature.

On the Joint Test of the Uncovered Interest Parity and the Ex‐ante Purchasing Power Parity

AbstractThis study revisits the relation between the uncovered interest parity (UIP), the ex‐ante purchasing power parity (EXPPP) and the real interest parity (RIP) for the UK and Japanese vs US data. The original contribution is on developing some joint coefficient‐based tests, obtained by rewriting the UIP, the EXPPP and the RIP as a set of cross‐equation restrictions in a vector autoregression (VAR) framework. Test results point to a “forward premium” bias in both the UIP and the EXPPP. The latter result is novel in the literature and stems from testing the PPP in expectational terms. Moreover, the results suggest a currency‐dependent pattern for the UIP, contrarily to the EXPPP equation. Finally, it is shown that conditioning the VAR on M3 growth differential has important explanatory power in resolving the aforementioned biases in both the UIP and EXPPP equations for the UK vs US data. At the same time, variables having a strong forward‐looking component (i.e. share prices) help recover a unitary coefficient in the UIP equation.

EXAMINING THE UNDERLYING PARITY CONDITIONS SUFFICIENT FOR REAL INTEREST PARITY FOR ASIAN COUNTRIES

This paper examines the underlying parity conditions upon which real interest parity (RIP) is predicted for some Asian countries relative to the U.S. and Japan over a period (1978–2009) containing significant changes using the multivariate cointegration procedure of Johansen et al. (2000) that allows for up to two pre-determined breaks. Each parity condition is examined to determine which is responsible for the rejection of RIP. The results suggest that the Fisher hypothesis is the least likely to violate RIP, whereas uncovered interest parity (UIP) appears to be most commonly violated. Stability tests suggest that the RIP relationship has been stable in most cases and that the impact of the Asian crisis and the Plaza Accord appears to be transitory, and that the RIP relationships have strengthened in the aftermath of the 1997–1998 Asian crisis.

Real interest parity in Central and Eastern European countries: Evidence on integration into EU and the US markets

We investigate the validity of real interest parity (RIP) for the 13 Central and Eastern European countries, over the period 1996–2011. We consider a panel stationarity test that allows for multiple breaks advocated by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2005) and confirmed the strong version of RIP. We found that the events of the last two decades, including the recent global financial crisis affected most of the real interest differential series. Based on the local-persistent model, we found that these countries take less than a year to converge to the RIP value. Financial market integration in these countries is invariant with respect to the reference country—the US and EU.

The Integration of Financial Markets in GCC Countries

The real interest parity (RIP) condition states that the interest rate differential between two economies is equivalent to the differential between the forward exchange rate and the spot exchange rate. This study examines the integration of financial markets in the GCC countries by verifying the validity of RIP in their economies. Using univariate and different panel unit root tests, we find evidence supporting the RIP theory, which indicates that the financial markets in these countries are well integrated and that the adoption of a common currency would be relatively easy. JEL classification: F21; F36; C23 Keywords: Real Interest Parity, GCC Countries, Panel Unit Root Tests, Monetary Union

Financial integration of East Asian economies: evidence from real interest parity

In this article, we investigate the financial linkages between the East Asian economies with Japan and the United States. We test for long-run Real Interest-rate Parity (RIP) using an array of panel-data techniques, including recent techniques developed by Breuer et al. (2002) and Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2005). This study offers two important results: first, the failure to account for structural breaks in the industrialized countries and Asian emerging economies is likely to provide evidence of nonstationary series that are stationary. Second, we found strong evidence that the parity condition holds in all the Asian countries. The failure of earlier studies to confirm mean reversion of Real Interest-rate Differential (RID) may reflect the choice of estimation/testing procedure rather than any inherent deficiency in the RIP.

New Evidence of the Real Interest Rate Parity for OECD Countries Using Panel Unit Root Tests with Breaks

This paper tests for real interest parity (RIRP) among the nineteen major OECD countries over the period 1978:Q2-1998:Q4. The econometric methods applied consist of combining the use of several unit root or stationarity tests designed for panels valid under cross-section dependence and presence of multiple structural breaks. Our results strongly support the fulfillment of the weak version of the RIRP for the studied period once dependence and structural breaks are accounted or.

Financial integration in the pacific basin region: RIP by PANIC attack?

We exploit advances in panel data econometrics to test whether real interest parity holds in the Pacific Basin region. We test for a unit root in the difference between either the US, Japanese or Euro area real interest rate and the real interest rates from a panel of eleven Pacific Basin economies. Unlike extant studies that test for RIP using panel data, we use Bai and Ng’s (2004) PANIC test which allows for a very general model of cross-section dependence, including the possibility of cross-unit cointegration. Ignoring the possibility of cross-unit cointegration can lead to severe size distortions and to an over-rejection of the null hypothesis of a unit root. We overturn earlier findings based on first-generation panel tests, and demonstrate that cross-unit cointegration leads to incorrect conclusions. We find that RIP holds in the Pacific region. Real interest rates converge to the US rate. We find no support for the hypothesis that Pacific Basin real interest rates converge to either the Japanese or Euro area rates.

Real interest parity: A note on Asian countries using panel stationarity tests

Existing panel data studies of real interest parity are either unable to identify which panel members are characterised by stationary real interest differentials, or are subject to size distortion resulting from the presence of structural breaks and cross-sectional dependencies. Using a panel stationarity testing procedure recently advocated by Hadri and Rao (2008) that allows for structural breaks and cross-sectional dependency, we are unable to reject the stationarity of Asian real interest rate differentials.

A VAR Analysis for the Uncovered Interest Parity and the Ex-Ante Purchasing Power Parity: The Role of Macroeconomic and Financial Information

This study revisits the relation between the uncovered interest parity (UIP), the ex ante purchasing power parity (EXPPP) and the real interest parity (RIP) using a VAR approach for the US dollar, the British sterling and the Japanese yen interest rates, exchange rates and changes in prices. The original contribution is on developing some joint coefficient-based tests for the three parities conditions at a long horizon. Particularly, test results are derived by rewriting the UIP, the EXPPP and the RIP as a set of cross-equation restrictions in the VAR (see also Campbell and Shiller, 1987; Bekaert and Hodrick, 2001; and Bekaert et al., 2007; King and Kurmann, 2002). Consistent with the idea of some form of proportionality among the above three parities, we find a 'forward premium' bias in both the UIP - as it is normally found in empirical analysis (e.g. Fama, 1987) - and the ex ante PPP. The latter result is new in the literature and stems from testing the PPP in expectational terms, thus assuming agents to bear on the uncertainty of future exchange rate changes and inflation dynamics. The overall results confirm the UIP to be currency-based (see also Bekaert et al., 2007) and the EXPPP to be horizon-dependent (see also Lothian and Taylor, 1996; Taylor, 2002). Moreover, we find (weak) evidence that conditioning the VAR on variables having a strong forward-looking component (i.e. share prices) helps recover a unitary coefficient in the UIP equation.

The real uncovered interest parity: The case of Canada and the USA

The aim of this paper is to re-assess the real uncovered interest parity (RUIP) in the light of including domestic demand shocks as possible determinants of the real exchange rate. We use annual data for two close trading partners, namely Canada and the USA. Using cointegration analysis we find evidence in favour of RUIP. In addition, empirical support is provided to show that discretionary fiscal policy actions have a spillover effect to the real exchange rate via real interest rates.

IS CHINA INTEGRATED WITH HER MAJOR TRADING PARTNERS: EVIDENCE ON FINANCIAL AND REAL INTEGRATION / AR KINIJA INTEGRUOTA SU SAVO PAGRINDINIAIS PREKYBOS PARTNERIAIS: ĮRODYMŲ APIE FINANSINĘ IR REALIĄJĄ INTEGRACIJĄ PAIEŠKOS

Applying the new panel unit root test developed in this paper, we can overcome the pitfalls of old‐fashioned panel unit root tests making it possible for researchers testing individual series for a unit root while taking contemporaneous cross‐sectional dependence and structural break into account. The proposed test was used to investigate the status of financial and real integration of China, Japan, UK, the European Union, and the United States based on the empirical validity of real interest parity, uncovered interest parity, and relative purchasing power parity. We found strong evidence in favor of those parity conditions and hence concluded that financial and real integration between China and the other four countries was well established using the new developed panel unit root test while the traditional tests (either univariate or panel) fail to do so. Santrauka Straipsnyje ieškoma rodymų apie finansinę ir realiąją integraciją tarp Kinijos bei jos tarptautinės prekybos partnerių. Autorių patobulinta ekonometrikos metodo (panel unit root test) versija leidžia ekonomistams atsižvelgti į nagrinėjamų šalių tarp šakinių ryšių bei ekonomikos struktūrų specifika. Finansinei bei realiai integracijai tarp Kinijos ir pagrindiniu jos prekybos partneriu, t. y. Japonijos, Jungtines Karalystes, Europos Sąjungos bei Jungtiniu Amerikos Valstijų, vertinti buvo naudoti tokie kintamieji, kaip nepadengtu palūkanų paritetas, palūkanų normų paritetas bei santykinis perkamosios galios paritetas. Tyrimo rezultatai patvirtino prielaida apie gana didelę minėtų paritetų svarba ir leido konstatuoti, kad Kinija yra gana stipriai finansiškai bei realiai integruota su savo pagrindinėmis prekybos partnerėmis.

Does the nominal exchange rate regime affect the real interest parity condition?

The real interest parity (RIP) condition combines two cornerstones in international finance, uncovered interest parity (UIP) and ex ante purchasing power parity (PPP). The extent of deviation from RIP is therefore an indicator of the lack of product and financial market integration. This paper investigates whether the nominal exchange rate regime has an impact on RIP. The analysis is based on 15 annual real interest rates and covers a long time span, 1870–2006. Four subperiods are distinguished and linked to fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes: the Gold Standard, the interwar float, the Bretton Woods system and the current managed float. Panel integration techniques are applied to increase the power of the tests, where cross section correlation is embedded via common factor structures. The results suggest that RIP holds as a long run condition irrespectively of the nominal exchange rate regime. However, adjustment towards RIP is affected by both the institutional framework and the historical episode. Half lives of shocks tend to be lower under fixed exchange rates and in the first part of the sample. Although barriers to trade and capital controls have been removed, they did not lead to lower half lives during the managed float.

Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Affect the Real Interest Parity Condition?

The real interest parity (RIP) condition combines two cornerstones in international finance, uncovered interest parity (UIP) and ex ante purchasing power parity (PPP). The extent of deviation from RIP is therefore an indicator of the lack of product and financial market integration. This paper investigates whether the nominal exchange rate regime has an impact on RIP. The analysis is based on 15 annual real interest rates and covers a long time span, 1870-2006. Four subperiods are distinguished and linked to fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes: the Gold Standard, the interwar float, the Bretton Woods system and the current managed float. Panel integration techniques are used to increase the power of the tests. Cross section correlation is embedded via common factor structures. The results suggest that RIP holds as a long run condition irrespectively of the exchange rate regimes. Adjustment towards RIP is affected by the institutional framework and the historical episode. Half lives of shocks tend to be lower under fixed exchange rates and in the first part of the sample, probably due to higher price flexibility before WWII. Although barriers to foreign trade and capital controls were substantially removed after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, they did not lead to lower half lives during the managed float.

International Parity Relations between Albania and Euro Area

Albanian economy is strongly dependent on its trade with Europe and in particular with the Euro area. The paper examines the international transmission mechanisms between Albania and the Euro area, linking its inflation and interest rates with the Euro area ones. The attention is focused on the purchasing power parity, the uncovered interest rate parity, the term spread and the real interest rate parity (Fisher condition parity) analyzing them jointly, within the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The cointegrated VAR models are used to define long-run stationary relations as well as common stochastic trends. It emerges that the real interest parity isn't stationary, due to the non-stationarity of the deviations from the PPP condition (ppp term) and that Euro area real interest rates are higher than Albanian real interest rates. An interesting result is that Euro area and Albanian interest rates result as weakly exogeneous within our system of variables, so they could be considered as driving forces for the system, meanwhile the two price inflations result to be “pushed” by the system, in other words prices seem to adjust to deviations from parity conditions. Moreover, permanent shocks to Albanian long-term interest rate seem to have a long-run impact on Albanian inflation. Even Albanian short-term interest rates have a negative long-run impact on the ppp term and on Albanian inflation. Bank of Albania should consider short-term interest rate as an important monetary variable to inflation targeting objective.