Real Income Growth Research Articles

Modeling a Time Study of the United States Consumer Price Index from 2014 to 2023

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) over a ten-year period 2014 to 2023. The CPI, a critical measure of inflation, reflects the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of goods and services. This study will explore the intricate relationships between CPI and key economic variables, including unemployment levels, interest rates, and the sales index, using time series data and multiple regression analysis. The research identifies significant predictors of CPI and evaluates the extent to which these factors influence price levels in the U.S. economy. The findings reveal a strong positive correlation between CPI and interest rates, indicating that as borrowing costs increase, the CPI tends to rise correspondingly. Conversely, a negative relationship is observed between CPI and unemployment levels, suggesting that higher unemployment rates are associated with a decrease in CPI, possibly due to reduced consumer spending. The study also examines the sales index, finding a weaker yet notable relationship with CPI, which underscores the complex dynamics of consumer behavior and price levels. The analysis highlights the limitations of CPI as a comprehensive measure of the cost of living, pointing out its lack of significant correlation with real income and population growth. The study concludes that while CPI is an essential tool for measuring inflation and informing monetary policy, it may not fully capture the economic realities faced by the population. These insights suggest the need for policymakers to consider additional factors when using CPI to make informed decisions about economic policy and social welfare programs among the U.S. population.

Analysis of the prospects for the development of organic pig farming in Russia

The paper is devoted to the study of factors that form the conditions for the development of organic pig production. The relevance of this topic is due to the growing interest of consumers both domestically and abroad in organic products as the basis for a healthy lifestyle and the resource potential available in Russia, which is sufficient to form a sector of producers — competitive participants in the world market. Based on the use of statistical methods for time series alignment, the authors have identified positive trends in traditional pig production, meat consumption and outpacing growth rates of demand for pig products. It has been determined that stable growth of real incomes of the population in all constituent entities of the Russian Federation can become the basis for the growth of effective demand for organic pig products. The paper summarizes the requirements for the organization of organic production in pig farming, taking into account internal regulatory documentation and foreign experience. Previous studies conducted by the authors showed that the existing soil and climatic conditions in the regions of the Russian Federation make it possible to produce organic feed for this industry, and the expansion of production is one of the target indicators of the Strategy for the Development of Organic Agriculture in the Russian Federation until 2030. The authors identified a number of risks in the work that must be taken into account when creating projects for the development of organic pig farming at the micro and macro levels.

Affordability of cigarettes in ten Southeastern European countries between 2008 and 2019

BackgroundThe empirical evidence shows that tobacco consumption is strongly associated with its affordability. The nominal growth in tobacco prices imposed by taxation should exceed or at least keep pace with...

Does Political Stability Matter for Foreign Direct Investment in Eurasian countries? Examining the Role of the Business Environment and Macroeconomic Variables

This In recent years, developing countries have placed a strong emphasis on attracting foreign direct investment (FDI), which is ostensibly regarded as the most important external resource for increasing industrial activity and real income growth. Indeed, the subsequent benefits of FDI, one of which is increased economic growth in developing countries, have been widely acknowledged. As a result, the goal of this study was to look into the impact of foreign macroeconomic factors, political instability, and the business environment on foreign direct investment in Eurasia countries. Many developing countries have softened their stances on foreign direct investment (FDI) in the hopes of luring more of this kind of investment and thereby bolstering their economies. This is due to the fact that there are many benefits to utilizing foreign capital during the expansion process. The panel data method was used to analyse information gathered from ten different Eurasia countries over a twenty-six-year period, from 1996 to 2021. The study's findings support the predicted outcomes of the hypothesized research. This study is one of the few in Eurasia countries that can be considered a pioneering study on the subject. This study will help policymakers and researchers understand the relationship between macroeconomic risk, political instability, the business environment, and foreign direct investment.

Classifying the Central Federal District regions by demographic profile of development

Subject. This article considers the economic potential and living standards of the population of the Central Federal District regions and discusses the problems of employment and rational use of labor resources. Objectives. The article aims to assess the differentiation of the Central Federal District regions according to the importance of the main economic and demographic parameters. Methods. For the study, we used a cluster analysis. Results. The article finds that among all the Central Federal District regions, only the City of Moscow is characterized by high values of most indicators of socio-demographic development. The dangerous demographic situation in many regions is primarily due to the low value of the gross regional product per capita. Conclusions. To eliminate the negative trends in the development of many regions, the main of which is the birth rate decline, it is necessary to create jobs, normal housing conditions, and ensure sustainable growth in real incomes of the population.

Doprinos makroekonomske stabilnosti poslovanju privrede - primer Srbije

The paper analyses the results of the Serbian corporate sector in the period 2013-2022, starting with groups of companies classified by their activity, size, residency of the owner and market orientation. The paper concludes that all groups of companies benefitted from stability and that they used the opportunities created on this account. In the observed ten-year period, the Serbian corporate sector recorded growth in real operating income and operating profit of 5% (8.2% in the period since 2019) and 8.5% on average per annum. Employment rose at the annual trend rate of 3.9%, and export propensity also increased, on average by 2.5 structural points a year. Simultaneously, the average annual trend rate of real GDP growth measured 2.9%, which together supports the assessment of the importance of exports for economic growth. Wage movements also indicate the multiplicative impact of economic growth on the increase in household earnings from work - both in terms of average wage growth and employment gains. If we take a step forward and split the ten-year period into two five-year periods, we can see that the total calculated financial costs on account of interest rates and exchange rate gains/losses decreased by EUR 6.9 bn, making up 37% of the total increase in corporate net profit. This is not merely about the positive impact on corporate money flows, but also about how important they are for financial potential to be more efficiently translated into expansion and/or modernisation of existing and construction of new capacities in a stable and predictable business environment. This is only one part of the direct importance of price stability and relative stability of the exchange rate for successful business performance, growth, and employment.

Mechanisms for achieving decent wage in the Russian economy

The article analyzes the new rules for setting minimum wage, introduced in 2020 in Russia in terms of how they contribute to achieving the decent wage in accordance with the current norms of international and Russian labour law. Minimum wage, while remaining a popular tool for regulating the wage floor, has undergone radical changes in 2020, which affected the basis for its calculation, the level and the frequency of its revision, as well as data sources. The completion of the first year cycles of the new rules for calculating the minimum wage and the stress test of 2022–2023 make it possible to assess the practice of their implementation. We assess the observed and projected effects of the new minimum wage methodology in relation to the norms of international documents (such as the Convention concerning the Minimum Wage of the International Labor Organization, the European Social Charter, the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, as well as the Charter of Social Rights and Guarantees of Citizens of Independent States). The article gives special attention to the milestones in the development of legislative regulation of the minimum wage in modern Russia. Basing on positive economic analysis, we conclude that the changes in the rules for calculating the minimum wage have reduced its sensitivity to inflation and broken the link with the costs necessary to maintain the reproduction of human capital of the employee and her household. In this research, we have confirmed the hypothesis that the new rules for calculating the minimum wage are poorly favorable to the implementation of decent work as one of the declared national development goals of the country for the period up to 2030. We propose alternatives to reform the minimum wage in the direction of promoting the growth of real incomes of workers and members of their households. We stress the need to establish a stronger dialogue between the state and other stakeholders when developing effective solutions to achieve decent wages in terms of transformation of economy.

Макроэкономические тенденции развития Дальнего Востока России в первой половине 2024 г.

Based on operational statistical, analytical and expert information, an analysis of the economic and social situation in the Far Eastern Federal District in the first half of 2024 is carried out in comparison with 2022–2023. It is shown that while instability and contradictory development trends in certain sectors of the economy persist, a sharp decline in the macroeconomic context is not observed. The output index of basic economic activities shows positive dynamics, but the active growth rate has slowed down. This does not currently allow us to talk about a stable phase of economic growth. The formation of growth rates in the industry of the Far Eastern Federal District was positively influenced by an increase in mining production for the main raw materials, an increase in the production of aviation and engineering products, certain types of non-metallic mineral products, and prefabricated wooden building structures. The positive dynamics and growth of investments in fixed assets were associated with the implementation of large investment projects in the field of railway and port infrastructure, mining, and manufacturing. There is a high level of inflation despite tight monetary policy. Consumer demand continues to expand in certain categories due to the growth of real incomes of the population

ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКАЯ СИТУАЦИЯ И ДОХОДЫ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ КАК ИНДИКАТОР СОЦИАЛЬНО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОГО РАЗВИТИЯ РЕГИОНА

This scientific article is devoted to the study of the demographic situation, as well as the analysis of income and expenses of the population as the main indicators of socio-economic development of the region. The introduction substantiates the relevance of the topic and the problem, considering current trends in socio-economic development, challenges and problems facing the Voronezh region. It is also noted that the standard of living of the population acts as an indicator characterizing the socio-economic development of the territory. The first part of the article is devoted to the demographic situation in the region. The article presents the results of a study of the standard of living of the population in the Voronezh region. An assessment of the demographic situation in the Voronezh region and its impact on the socio-economic development of the region is given. The study found that the population of the region was gradually falling, with the main decline occurring in 2021. The reasons for the trend were the spread of a new coronavirus infection, the outflow of residents from the region, and a low standard of living, which generally causes dissatisfaction with living conditions in the territory. The solution to this problem is seen in the implementation of the concept of demographic policy until 2025, which assumes the implementation of targeted programs aimed at reducing mortality, especially in working age, equalizing living standards between urban and rural areas, and also includes measures to proactively respond to possible changes in the demographic situation. The second part of the article presents the regional aspect of income and expenses of the population as the basis for the formation of demand in the consumer market. In particular, it is noted that the incomes of the population are one of the socio-economic categories that allow us to assess the level of development of the region. According to the level of economic development of a particular territory, the incomes of the population may change both quantitatively and structurally. Much attention in the analysis process was paid to the costs that residents incur in their daily lives. Considering the structure of public spending, it was noted that the main share is occupied by expenses aimed at purchasing food. The analysis of the main indicators was carried out using materials from the Federal State Statistics Service. The results of the analysis can be used in the processes of developing and implementing the socio-economic development policy of the region. In conclusion, it is concluded that the growth of real incomes of the population acts not only as an indicator of the socio-economic development of the region, but also as the main factor of economic growth, contributing to savings, as the main source of investment in the economy.

Book Review: The Myth of American Inequality: How Government Biases Policy Debate

Gramm, Ekelund, and Early demonstrate in _The Myth of American Inequality_ that the official statistics we rely on grossly misstate poverty, income inequality, and other measures of well-being. They ignore two thirds of welfare benefits as income, omit the income lost due to taxes that people pay for such programs, and use outmoded price indices that magnify price inflation and thereby understate growth in real income, employer-paid benefits and other variables over time. The result is grossly over-hyped problems of poverty, income inequality, and stagnation in living standards.

Why we should increase Rent Assistance

AbstractWhile the 2023–24 Budget saw the first real increase in rent assistance in Australia since 1990, this was small compared to the growth in real incomes over the three decades. Rapid increases in advertised rents, and expectations that these will flow through to average rents, make an increase in this payment all the more urgent. This article reviews the arguments for and against providing rent assistance to income support recipients in Australia and argues for a serious consideration of the 2010 recommendations of the Report into Australia's Future Tax System for a substantial increase in this payment.

Socio-Economic Factors of Population Reproduction in Russia and in the Context of Federal Districts

The purpose of the study. Establishing the specifics of reproduction of the Russian population in the modern conditions of economic development in general and in the context of federal districts.Materials and methods. In the process of writing the article, the authors used regulatory legal acts of the Government of the Russian Federation, materials of the Federal State Statistics Service, the works of individual scientists and public organizations on the problems of population reproduction. In the course of the work, such statistical research methods as tabular and graphical methods, analysis of indexes of dynamics series were used.Results. The population of the Russian Federation and the components of its change for 1990-2021, the dynamics of fertility and mortality rates for 1950-2021 were studied, the reasons for the decline in the total fertility rate and the net coefficient of population reproduction, including in the context of federal districts, were considered.Conclusion. Currently, the population of the Russian Federation has not reached the level of 1990. Fluctuations in the total population growth are mainly caused by fluctuations in migration growth. In conditions of low fertility and high mortality, the migration component is the determining factor of population growth. Since 1992, the natural decline of the population has been established (with the exception of 2013-2015). The amount of migration growth exceeded the natural decline in 2009-2017, which ensured the overall population growth.The intersection of the curves of the dynamics of the fertility rate and the mortality rate in the Russian Federation was established in 1992 and 2016. From 2012 to 2016 the coefficient of natural growth is approaching zero, and then a downward trend is formed, that is, a decrease in the population.The main reason for the decline in the birth rate in Russia is the demographic, socio-economic state of society, in which a steady decline in the total fertility rate, demographic aging of the population, and changes in the family structure have been established. Over the past 30 years, there has been a narrowed reproduction of the population in the country, which can be considered as a potential depopulation.A high variation of the total fertility rate in the context of federal districts of Russia has been established. In the Central Federal District and the North-Western Federal Districts for the period 1990-2021, the total fertility rate did not exceed the average Russian level of this index. Over the past three years (2019-2021), the total fertility rate has been decreasing in the Northwestern, Southern, Volga, and Siberian Federal Districts.In order to eliminate negative trends in the birth rate in the regions, it is necessary to create jobs, form normal housing conditions, ensure sustainable growth in real income of the population, organize a modern level of healthcare, education, develop a network of preschool institutions, and support families.

Межбюджетные трансферты и их влияние на сокращение диспропорций регионального развития

The article is devoted to relationship assessment between intergovernmental transfers from federal to regional budgets and the growth of real incomes of the population. It was found that the Gini coefficient, which reflects the deviation of income distribution from absolute equal distribution, in the whole country and for specific entities of the Russian Federation, is slightly higher than 0.4, which, according to the World Bank, is a critical level of inequality. Thus, Russia maintains a consistently high level of interregional income inequality. By assessing the σ- and β-convergence of social and economic indicators of 74 regions of Russia in 2000–2021 it is concluded that there is a process of convergence of real per capita incomes, but the role of intergovernmental transfers in this is not obvious. A positive and significant impact was recorded mainly due to subsidies, which can be explained by their infrastructural nature. It is noteworthy that subsidies, being a direct tool for equalizing the budgetary provision of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, which are based on a formalized calculation approach, did not have a significant impact on the growth of real incomes of the population. The contribution of intergovernmental transfers is undeniable in the case of fiscal or revenue equalization, but it is not a sustainable factor in regional growth. The model additionally included such indicators as the level of inflation, investment in fixed capital, the share of employees of state bodies and local governments in the average annual number of employees, the ratio of the employed population to the total population, the amount of assigned pensions, etc. The latter had a positive effect on the convergence of real income per capita, which is consistent with the results obtained in the research.

ACTUAL PROBLEMS OF THE STATE AUDIT OF BUDGET INVESTMENTS

The realities of today require prompt actions from governments within the framework of their state policies. Close attention is paid to the effective management of public funds, respectively, socioeconomic development, the growth of real incomes of the population, the increase in its standard of living and, in general, the question of human-centricity. Budget investments have a special role as an instrument of economic development. However, the question is in the effective use of this tool. The simple reasons for not achieving socioeconomic goals are deviations from the time of project implementation and, accordingly, cost overruns. Researchers and practitioners name various reasons for time deviations that lead to a greater deviation in costs, i.e. the presence of time overruns in government projects increases the likelihood of cost overruns. The problem is relevant for Kazakhstan. The article provides a literary review of the issues raised, an analysis of the budget investment projects implemented in 2021 of the Republic of Kazakhstan, discusses the issues of the effectiveness of the management of budget investments of the Republic of Kazakhstan and offers suggestions on possible measures to improve this system.

Modelling Monetary Policy Mechanism in Driving the Control of Inflation Growth in Nigeria

The study examined Modeling Monetary Policy Mechanism in Driving the Control of Inflation Growth In Nigeria. Multiple Linear Regression Model (MLRM) estimating technique was adopted as a tool in fitting the model where inflation rate serves as response variable and income growth rate, money supply, exchange rate, domestic credit growth rate and government expenditure served as explanatory variables. Data made use of were collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin, December 2018, between 1998 to 2018. The R-Statistical software package was adopted to carry out the analysis. The result of the P-value of Money supply, Exchange rate and Domestic credit growth were all statistically significant with 0.00233, 0.0000696 and 0.01131 respectively at (0.05). Though, the real income growth rate and government expenditure do not appreciably contribute to controlling the inflation growth rate. The overall model contributes significantly to controlling the inflation growth rate with a P-value of 1.138 x 10-15. The coefficient of determination (R-square) is very high which implies that the model best captured the control of the inflation growth rate that is being considered. The study however concluded that three of the explanatory variables made much significant impact in controlling inflation growth rate in Nigeria.

THE IMPACT OF DOMESTIC SAVING AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH EMPRICAL STUDY IN CASE OF YEMEN (1990-2012)

Purpose- This research essentially aims to investigate the impacts of domestic saving (DS) and foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth in the Republic of Yemen since Yemeni reunification in 1990 using data during the period 1990-2013. This research was designed as a quantitative study and descriptive analytical method was followed. Design/methodology/approach-) Secondary data was used to measure the variables to specify the effects of independent variables on the dependent variable. Data was collected from various internal and external resources. The collected data were analyzed by using eviews statistical package version 7 to explain the results of data. The analysis firstly tests unit roots for the DS, FDI and GDP by using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests. Secondly assesses the equilibrium relationship between GDP and its probable determinants of DS and FDI through applying Johansen and Juselius (1990) tests finally determine the causality direction between the variables employed Granger-causality tests. Findings The study results indicate that there is long run relationship between domestic savings and foreign direct investments with real income growth in Yemen. Foreign direct investment has statistical, significant, and inelastic effect on real income (-0.299) while domestic savings are not statistically significant in the long term coefficients. Error correction model exposes that Yemeni real income converges to its long term equilibrium level reasonably low at -0.01884% by the foreign direct investment and domestic savings contributions; however, this coefficient is statistically significant. Lastly, Granger causality tests illustrate that there is a bidirectional relationship between DS, FDI and economic growth. Savings is driven force but foreign direct investments are output. If savings and income increase, the foreign direct investments were attracted more. Also, this study has confirmed that saving is an income driven in Yemen. Limitation of Study: That there is no accurate information about the previous years before the unity. So that the researcher ignores that information and start from unity country generated. Another limitation, is that focus only on Yemeni economy and the around circumstances with no concentrate on international variables because There is no significant impact on world economy as a result of economic fluctuation in Yemen. Also this research aims to study how to develop investment climate in Yemen as well as attract new FDI to Yemen.

Макроэкономические тенденции развития Дальнего Востока России в первой половине 2023 г.

On the basis of operational statistical, analytical and expert information, an analysis of the economic and social situation in the Far Eastern Federal District is carried out in the first half of 2023 compared to 2021–2022. It is shown that while maintaining instability and conflicting development trends in certain sectors of the economy, there is no galloping decline in the macroeconomic context. The maintenance of slightly negative rates in the Far Eastern Federal District industry in the first half of 2023 was noted, which is associated with negative trends in the manufacturing sector of the economy in January – May, a decrease in which could not compensate for the renewed growth of extractive industries in May – June. Positive dynamics and growth of investments in fixed assets remain, which is associated with anti-crisis measures of state regulation and financing of large investment-intensive infrastructure projects. As before, the main volume of investment resources is accumulated in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and the Amur Region, where the implementation of large anchor investment projects in the field of mining, transport, gas chemistry, energy continues. In the construction complex, for the second year, positive dynamics remains associated, among other things, with the expansion of housing construction with the support of mortgage lending and budget incentives. There is a slow recovery in consumer demand in certain categories due to the growth of real incomes of the population against the background of low inflation

АНАЛІЗ СУТІ ТА ЗМІСТУ ПРОЦЕСІВ КОНВЕРГЕНЦІЇ З УРАХУВАННЯМ ЕКОЛОГІЧНОЇ СКЛАДОВОЇ

The European Union is based on economic, social and territorial unity, as well as on balanced economic growth and convergence. As the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions points out: "convergence trends between member states have been achieved in recent decades in both economic and social dimensions". After adoption of the "Europe 2020" strategy by the European Council in 2010, as well as of the European Green Deal, great attention have been paid to environmental problems in the development of the member countries. These strategies emphasize the need for joint actions by member states in the direction of sustainable development. Today, the governments of countries, politicians, scientists, public organizations and other interested parties are searching for effective ways of economic growth, taking into account the listed planetary and ecological limits, as well as its ecological consequences, which actualizes the teaching of ecological and economic growth. The purpose of the article is to define the conceptual foundations of ecological and economic convergence. The article examines a set of countries (regions) that are members of the so-called "convergence club". The indicator of CO2 emissions in these countries is highlighted, which reflects only a part of the cumulative consequences that are the result of extensive energy consumption. Ecological and economic convergence is analyzed, namely the analysis of foreign sources. The author proposed the ways to solve the issues of absolute and relative unevenness of development, as well as their comparison. It was confirmed that if a country (region) with a lower level of socio-economic development tries to get closer to the corresponding level of a leading country (region), then the standard of living in the first one will increase, and the gap between countries (regions) will also decrease. And corresponding growth in real income per capita will take place in the "lagging" countries.

Modeling the influence of monetary factors on the development of national production

The article is devoted to defining the influence of monetary policy on the development of national production and substantiating the prospects for its monetary regulation. It has been established that in recent years the monetary policy of Ukraine has been unfavourable for the industrial development in Ukraine. The NBU, which adheres to the monetary regime of inflation targeting, pursues a relatively strict policy, in particular, maintaining the real key rate at a level above neutral and low growth rates of the real money supply. As a result, for many years the national industry has been operating in conditions of a chronic shortage of working capital and investments, which exacerbates the problems of its development. To establish the nature and strength of the influence of monetary factors on long-term economic growth in Ukraine, a new economic and mathematical model based on production functions has been developed. Its parameterization showed that national output directly depends on the increase in invested labour, and vice versa – on the increase in Hryvnia exchange rate to U.S. Dollar (discourages exports) and U.S. Dollar Index (worsens the foreign economic situation). The impact on the increase in the real money supply can also have a positive impact on the economy, but its strength depends on the growth rate of broad money (with controlled inflation). At moderate rates, typical for the basic scenario of long-term development of the Ukrainian economy, investments are not increasing as vigorously as it is necessary for accelerated growth of real GDP and incomes of citizens. An increase in the growth rate of the real money supply (up to about 15% per year), set forth in the accelerated development scenario, can provide better results. It is proved that despite the importance of monetary variables, the key factors influencing the links in the chain "real money supply – investment – industrial growth" should be sought outside the monetary sphere proper. Stable expansion of the monetary base and growth of the real money supply do matter, but they are not able to solve the fundamental problems of modernization of economic institutions, structural restructuring of the economy and overcoming technological gaps with industrialized countries. It follows from this that in Ukrainian economy in the long run it is important for the regulator to maintain stable growth of the real money supply and controlled inflation, but this will be of fundamental importance for solving the accumulated problems only if the policies of the regulator and the government are coordinated, which should create favourable conditions and form appropriate institutions to reduce the dependence of the economy on raw material exports, accelerate national technical and technological development and increase its overall level.

Population Aging and Structural Transformation

We quantify the role of population aging in the structural transformation process. Household-level data from the United States show that the fraction of expenditures devoted to services increases with household age. We use a shift-share decomposition and a quantitative model to show that US population aging accounted for about a fifth of the observed increase in the service share in consumption between 1982 and 2016. The contribution of population aging to the rise in the service share is about the same size as the contribution of real income growth and about half as large as that of changes in relative prices. (JEL D12, E21, E23, J11, J14)