Changes In Real Income Research Articles

Changes in real income of households in the Czech Republic due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Changes in real income of households in the Czech Republic due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Trade disputes and the climate

Using a two-country perfectly competitive general equilibrium model, this paper identifies a mechanism through which trade restrictions and counter-restrictions affect the climate. The analysis shows that local pollution externalities and real income changes affect the climate impact of trade disputes. Specifically, a series of tariffs and retaliatory measures increases the level of global emissions if a country using export taxes (or production taxes) obtains considerable real income gains from local air pollution reductions. The self-interested incentive to reduce local pollution encourages retaliation and can be counterproductive to the climate.

P. R. Brahmananda. Money, Income, Prices in 19th Century India. Mumbai: Himalaya Publishing House, 2001. 744 pages. Hardbound. Indian Rs 1800.00.

Money, income, and prices are important macroeconomic variables that play a crucial roles in an economy. The trends in money supply, movements in prices, changes in nominal and real income, as well as their interrelationships affect the economic life and well-being of a nation. The compilation of data on these magnitudes over long periods of time along with the supporting analysis is what constitutes monetary history. The present book by P. R. Brahmananda has carried out such an exercise for India. In presenting the monetary history of India, the author has kept the pioneering work of Milton Friedman and Anna Shwartz as a model for his work, and has comprehensively treated the 19th century events and experiences of the then Indian Subcontinent in the monetary and related areas. In the process, more than 200 time series of different variables have been brought together. The book not only contains a narrative account including the summary of the various viewpoints before the currency committees, and a detailed chronology of the period, but also examines the pros and cons of the various controversies of that period. Moreover, it subjects the empirical evidence to econometric testing of several important hypotheses of the modern-day monetary theory.

The Poverty Impacts of Labor Heat Stress in West Africa Under a Warming Climate

AbstractThis paper assesses the poverty implications of heat stress‐related labor capacity losses based on simulations using a global general equilibrium economic model. Compared with past studies, we use a more precise measurement of heat stress, assign labor capacity losses to specific labor types by sector, and employ an economic model that contains highly disaggregated economic sectors and regions. This model allows us to determine global and regional economic impacts that account for international dependencies. We focus attention on seven West African countries for which we determine the implied changes in real incomes of households near the poverty line. For these countries, we use household microsimulations to determine potential impacts on the poverty headcount. In our results, poverty impacts are heterogeneous across countries and earning sources‐based household strata. A key channel behind this heterogeneity is how loss of labor productivity affects the relative returns to factors of production. We find that unskilled agricultural wages could increase, as loss of productivity in the face of inelastic food demand induces increased labor demand in order to dampen agricultural output losses. In our experiments, even neglecting potential increases in mortality and morbidity, poverty increases range from 2.3% in Cameroon to up to 7.2%–9.2% in Ghana and Nigeria. In one of the seven countries considered, Guinea, poverty sees little change due to the mitigating effects of rising labor wages.

Iraq's Unemployment Realities and Causes: An Analytical Study

The main problem currently experienced by the countries of the world is the problem of unemployment, as the latter has become a social phenomenon of universal status, whether society is advanced or developing. After being part of the economic cycle, unemployment has become a structural problem, particularly in developing countries, where unemployment is generally exacerbated by the failure of development efforts, worsening external debt, and implementing strict financial discipline programs. Most countries in the Arab world have pursued different development paths for economic growth. Still, these paths have been unsustainable for a long time, as fluctuations in oil revenues during the mid-1980s have affected the results of development policies, creating several problems requiring economic reforms and restructuring. In all its forms and guises, unemployment has had a significant impact on the living standards of the workforce. Accordingly, lead to changes in the people's real income, resulting in poor purchasing power, changing consumption, and a significant loss to the national economy due to its survival below the level of total employment. Unemployment also leads to waste of human resources, particularly those with a high stock of human capital.

Energy efficiency and productivity in traditional herding in semi-steppe rangeland (case study: Kalat Rangelands, North-east of Iran)

Traditional herding is an ancient activity that has continued from the beginning of human life on earth until today. Over time, alternative methods have replaced traditional livestock management methods, but in many countries, traditional herding still has a large share in meat and dairy production. Therefore, to improve the efficiency of this system, analysis of energy indicators is important. In this study, the common livestock system in northeastern Iran (Kalat region) and energy efficiency and productivity were evaluated. For this purpose, the identification of important livestock centers and the characteristics of all rangeland in the region were prepared and with a comprehensive and accurate evaluation, the target herd was determined. It monitored all livestock activities over five years, and it summed the input and output energies using the MAFF equation and Nicol coefficients. It also estimated the volume and price of livestock products to obtain real income. By summarizing all the information, energy efficiency and productivity indices were estimated annually. So, it estimated the energy efficiency index in the traditional herding of Kalat at 31% according to the sheep breed (Kurdikhorasani) of the region. The energy productivity index also recorded an almost downward trend during the study period and showed that it fluctuated entirely based on changes in real income. The results showed that energy indices are relatively lower than in other regions, and there is a need to reform the prices of livestock products and improve management methods for the sustainability of traditional herding.

Environmental bias in trade policy

Economics “Dirty” industries that emit large amounts of carbon dioxide per output value enjoy hundreds of billions of dollars of implicit annual subsidies because trade policies in most countries impose higher tariffs and trade barriers on “clean” industries. Shapiro suggests that this is because firms lobby for low tariffs on their inputs but protections for their outputs, because “downstream” industries in the value chain (for example, selling pans), which generally have lower emissions, also typically have higher tariffs than “upstream” industries (for example, coal, which is used to create steel to make pans). Global emissions would decrease, with little change in real income, if trade policies treated clean and dirty goods similarly. Q. J. Econ. 10.1093/qje/qjaa042 (2020).

Incomes and Child Health in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1990–2018

Abstract This paper investigates the relationship between real incomes in Sub-Saharan African countries during 1990–2018 and child wellbeing. A new UNICEF-WHO-World Bank database of child growth and malnutrition and annual measures of child mortality from the World Development Indicators are employed. Changes in real incomes are related to changes in these measures. Real incomes are found to be strongly negatively conditionally associated with stunting, underweight and child mortality. The fraction of each country’s export revenue derived from major non-agricultural export commodities in 1990 is then used to construct a counterfactual value of export revenues. This measure is used to predict real incomes in a country in a year. The impact of incomes on child mortality outcomes is then assessed. Instrumental variables results suggest that improved incomes may have causally reduced neonatal and under-five mortality.

Valuing mortality risk in China: Comparing stated-preference estimates from 2005 and 2016

We estimate the marginal rate of substitution of income for reduction in current annual mortality risk (the “value per statistical life” or VSL) using stated-preference surveys administered to independent samples of the general population of Chengdu, China in 2005 and 2016. We evaluate the quality of estimates by the theoretical criteria that willingness to pay (WTP) for risk reduction should be strictly positive and nearly proportional to the magnitude of the risk reduction (evaluated by comparing answers between respondents) and test the effect of excluding respondents whose answers violate these criteria. For subsamples of respondents that satisfy the criteria, point estimates of the sensitivity of WTP to risk reduction are consistent with theory and yield estimates of VSL that are two to three times larger than estimated using the full samples. Between 2005 and 2016, estimated VSL increased sharply, from about 22,000 USD in 2005 to 550,000 USD in 2016. Income also increased substantially over this period. Attributing the change in VSL solely to the change in real income implies an income elasticity of about 3.0. Our results suggest that estimates of VSL from stated-preference studies in which WTP is not close to proportionate to the stated risk reduction may be biased downward by a factor of two or more, and that VSL is likely to grow rapidly in a population with strong economic growth, which implies that environmental-health, safety, and other policies should become increasingly protective.

Accounting for non‐economic factors in demand for transportation fuels: a comparative study of South Korea and Indonesia

AbstractThis paper demonstrates the importance of capturing the influence of non‐economic factors such as changes in economic structure and life style in estimating energy demand functions for transportation fuels. Using annual time series data for South Korea and Indonesia from 1971 to 2016 in an Unrestricted Error Correction Model, the paper estimates the energy demand functions for transportation fuels as well as the growth of the underlying demand trend (which captured the effects of non‐economic factors). The estimated elasticities are in the range of 1.103 to 1.82 for long‐run income elasticity and −0.024 to 0.009 for price elasticity in the long‐run. However, the estimated coefficient of the linear trend variable ranged from −0.36 to 0.009. The overall result suggests that demand for transportation fuels are more elastic to changes in real income than real prices in the long run. The relative magnitude and sign on the coefficient of the trend variables (both linear and stochastic) suggest that South Korea is more efficient in transport sector energy consumption than Indonesia, on the other hand, Non‐technical exogenous factors (such as motorisation and traffic congestion) tend to outweigh energy efficiency improvements in Indonesia.

The Effects of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks on U.S. Consumer Sentiment

AbstractThis paper investigates how the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment responds to oil price shocks. While oil supply shocks play only a limited role, the effect of aggregate demand shocks is positive for the first few months and negative thereafter. A typical other oil demand shock has a significant negative impact for up to 2 years. By studying the responses of individual survey questions, we find that expectations of future inflation and a change in real household income as well as perceived vehicle and house buying conditions are the main transmission channels of oil supply and demand shocks.

Distributional Weights in Environmental Valuation and Cost-benefit Analysis: Theory and Practice

Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is built on the Kaldor-Hicks efficiency criterion whereby projects that have aggregate positive net benefits are recommended even if those who lose are not compensated for their losses. Two kinds of problems can be identified with the use of the criterion. First, as income tends to affect monetary welfare changes positively, the preferences of those with higher wealth have a larger weight in societal decision-making. Second, monetary welfare changes can be thought of as changes in real income, which matter more for those with a lower initial wealth level. Both problems can be mitigated with distributional weighting. Despite their strong theoretical pedigree, distributional weights have been largely neglected in practical CBAs, one exception being analyses in climate change economics. We present the theory of distributional weighting and illustrate how weights can be applied empirically in an international environmental CBA that deals with marine water quality improvements. We show that different weighting schemes can result in different policy recommendations. We also show that taking the income distribution within countries into account can change a country's willingness to participate in the water quality improvement program and that the income elasticity of willingness to pay (WTP) is an important indication of the direction of change.

Job-to-Job Flows and Earnings Growth

The US workforce has had little change in real wages, income, or earnings since the year 2000. However, even when there is little change in the average rate at which workers are compensated, individual workers experienced a distribution of wage and earnings changes. In this paper, we demonstrate how earnings evolve in the US economy in the years 2001-2014 on a forthcoming dataset on earnings for stayers and transitioners from the U.S. Census Bureau's Job-to-Job Flows data product. We account for the roles of on-the-job earnings growth, job-to-job flows, and nonemployment in the growth of U.S. earnings.

Job-to-Job Flows and Earnings Growth

The U.S. workforce has had little change in real wages, income, or earnings since the year 2000. However, even when there is little change in the average rate at which workers are compensated, individual workers experienced a distribution of wage and earnings changes. In this paper, we demonstrate how earnings evolve in the U.S. economy in the years 2001-2014 on a forthcoming dataset on earnings for stayers and transitioners from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Job-to-Job Flows data product to account for the role of on-the-job earnings growth, job-to-job flows, and nonemployment in the growth of U.S. earnings.

WHY HASN’T ECONOMIC PROGRESS LOWERED WORK HOURS MORE?

Abstract:Why hasn’t economic progress lowered work hours more? One of Keynes’s most famous essays is his “Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren.” Keynes predicts that within one hundred years — which would bring us to 2030 — most scarcity will have disappeared and most individuals will work no more than fifteen hours a week. My question is a simple one: Why wasn’t Keynes right? Why have working hours remained as long as they have? Why hasn’t progress taken a more leisurely and less material form than what we have observed? Investigating that issue will help us get at the question of just how much progress has occurred. Under one view, Western life has been caught in a kind of rat race, and a lot of the gains of progress are illusory. For instance there is the argument that higher incomes are largely consumed as part of a futile race to win relative status, and living standards aren’t nearly as high as they might appear. Under some alternative scenarios, people haven’t moved to Keynes’s scenario for some good reasons, such as enjoying work more than we might think, or other hypotheses, as I will outline. In that case the observed changes in real income are robust, and measured correctly, or progress may even be greater than income measurements would indicate. I hope that addressing Keynes’s paradox can help us better understand this longstanding debate on the nature of modern progress.

Is there a housing wealth effect in European countries?

Abstract In this study, a housing wealth effect on personal consumption is assumed and tested on 16 selected European countries using an estimator developed for dynamic heterogeneous panel data analysis. Empirical estimates have shown that there is a long-run and a short-run housing wealth effect in analysed countries. The elasticity of real private consumption to changes in real disposable income has shown to be positive and statistically significant as well as the elasticity of consumption to changes in real housing wealth. Therefore, the research hypothesis of this paper of a statistically significant and positive long-term relationship between housing wealth and private consumption in the analysed countries was confirmed.

IMPLEMENTING THE BANKING SECTOR SOUNDNESS INDEX (BSS) FOR PREDICTING BANKING CRISIS

(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)INTRODUCTION:Banks are financial intermediaries which play an important role in the economy. Lately, economic condition in ASEAN countries, on average, decreases compared with countries in the Europe and the United States. Data Outlook World Development Indicator (WDI), in 2015, there is a summary of the movement of the economic growth during 2009-2014. In 2010, the real income changes in both the countries of ASEAN, Europe and United States are both experiencing a decline, then fluctuate. However, in 2013, when the countries in the Europe and the US had increased, only the ASEAN countries were experiencing a decline. Economic activity in developed and developing countries in East Asia such as Korea, Taiwan, and ASEAN countries showed a slight economic slowdown than expected, this is reflected by weak exports and declining domestic demand.The Early Warning System (EWS) crisis has done a lot of research by some experts for anticipation that the crisis could have been handled since the beginning of the emergence of indications of a crisis. EWS is using a variety of methods that are considered suitable for research. The aim of this paper is to anticipate the arrival of the crisis early so that the country can set up a variety of policies to reduce the impact of the crisis.Bank Sharia remains more resistant to the crisis than conventional banks because Islamic banking system in the free activity of usury. Fahmi (2015; 43) defines usury is the addition in a way that is not fair. Conventional banks rated not support real growth in the overall economy because the real sector is considered to have a substantial risk, whereas if the money deposited in the bank it will benefit in the form of interest.Based on the reason previously, we formulate the hypothesis as follows: whether economic growth, capital (CAR), asset quality (LAR) and earnings (ROA) exhibited negative effect, while inflation, the ratio of money supply, exchange rate, management (MAN), liquidity (FDR) and sensitivity to market Risk (SEN) exhibited positive effect towards the prediction of Islamic Banking crisis in ASEAN in 2010-2014.LITERATURE REVIEW:The Theory of crisis:In the theory of the financial crisis, Ascarya (2009) mentioned that conventional economic generally looked a macro perspective, developed from the first generation model, the second generation model, and the third generation model.> First generation ModelThe model looked at the financial crisis which arise from a currency crisis or balance of payment crisis, macroeconomic imbalances because of weak economic fundamentals. This approach tends assuming central bank financing of fiscal deficit through the provision of credit in the country and also maintain a fixed exchange rate. This model can't explain the Asian financial crisis in which despite healthy economic fundamentals, these countries are still experiencing a crisis. This model was first proposed by Krugman (1979) and Flood and Garber (1984).> Second Generation ModelThis model was developed by the weakness of first generation model and propose the central role of expectations and a failure of coordination between lenders, so the crisis can occur regardless of the health of economic fundamentals. This model was first proposed by Obstfeld and Rogoff (1986).> Third Generation ModelKrugman (1997) and Corsetti et al. (1998) stated that thereis influence of moral hazard on the third generation currency crisis. The third generation model emphasizes on the balance sheet effects associated with the devaluation. The basic idea is banks and companies in developing countries have explicit currency mismatches in their balance sheets as they do foreign currency loans and to lend in local currency. If there is a specific currency depreciation will lead therefore emphasizes the third generation model of banking supervision tightened. …

Modeling Money Demand in China: Evidence from Cointegration Analysis

When monetary policy is not aimed at clearing the money market by using the nominal interest rate, as in China's case, money demand becomes an important analytical tool. This paper examines China's money demand in the long run with the cointegration analysis. We find that (i) real money balances is a function of real income and interest rate in the long run; (ii) real money balances react positively to changes in real income while negatively to those in interest rate in the long run; (iii) the impact of economic activity on real money demand is large while that of the interest rate is relatively small. Our finding implies that monetary aggregates in China have some useful indicator properties and monetary authorities should watch its movement closely.

The Relationship between Electricity Energy Consumption and Income: Evidence from ARDL Bounds Testing for Kyrgyz Republic

The potential links between energy consumption and real income have a critical role in designing discretionary macroeconomic policies for stabilization purposes. In this paper, we try to examine such a relationship for Kyrgyz Republic, and utilize some contemporaneous time series estimation techniques to obtain policy-based conclusions. In light of a methodological discussion, the results indicate that there exists a long run relationship if the real income is chosen as the dependent variable. We found that the larger the electricity consumption the larger would be the real income. Also, the causality analyses carried out in a Granger sense do not support the so-called neutrality hypothesis which means no causal relations between the variables. Instead, we give evidence supporting a one-way causality running from changes in electricity consumption to changes in real income. All in all, the paper emphasizes that policies in favor of energy conservation can lead to harm the economic growth in Kyrgyz Republic.

Dynamic Impacts of Income and the Exchange Rate on US Tourism, 1960–2011

This paper examines the short-run and long-run impacts of income and exchange rates on US exports and imports of tourism to improve understanding of the dynamic determinants of the US tourism trade balance. Using the bounds testing to cointegration procedure and data for the period 1960–2011, the paper finds that in the long run both US exports and imports of tourism are highly responsive to changes in real income, implying that the relative growth of foreign to domestic income is the key determinant of the US tourism trade balance. The real exchange rate is found to be a significant long-run factor affecting that balance. This finding indicates that an appreciation (depreciation) of US dollars deteriorates (improves) the US tourism trade balance. In the short run, income tends to have a significant impact on US exports and imports of tourism.