Real Estate Lending Research Articles

Gifts, Corporate Policies, and Individual Morality in UK’s Alternative Real Estate Lending Market

AbstractGifts, gratuities, and hospitality are commonplace in industry and more so in the financial sector. They are often offered without any mention of their intention. However, they raise controversial and non-detectable reciprocity expectations. We investigate brokers and lenders in the UK’s alternative real estate lending sector. Unlike the rest of the financial market, the alternative real estate lending sector is on a rapid growth path and at the same time broadly unregulated, thereby providing a breeding ground for transactional graft. This is the first analysis of gift-related behaviour in this sector. Based on an online survey of 108 professionals, we identify their corporate gift policies and gather their views on what they believe these policies should be when it comes to monetary limits. We contrast these reports with the hypothetical choices these professionals make in personalized and isolated scenarios to assess their individual moral cut-offs. For the moral value consistent subjects (comprising 72% of the surveyed population) who report a single cut-off of monetary limits below which they accept gifts but above which they do not, we find that their monetary acceptance limits have no connection either with the policies of the corporations that they belong to or with their views about what such policies should be. This suggests that employees’ views about policies in their corporations are merely social constructs for their measure of morality which is different from the same measure of their individual morality when applied in isolation. This research informs policy and corporate decision-making to promote the impact of nudging on the role of an individual as an identity in an act of perceived graft rather than simply as a member of an organization.

Risk Perception and Loan Underwriting in Securitized Commercial Mortgages

We use model-implied volatility to proxy for property risk perceptions in the commercial real estate lending market. Although loan-to-value ratios (LTVs) unconditionally decreased following the Global Financial Crisis, LTVs conditioned on implied volatility and other theoretically motivated fundamental determinants of optimal leverage show no conclusive trend before or after the crisis. Taking reported property and loan attributes at face value, we find no clear pattern of unwarranted credit being extended to commercial real estate assets. We conclude that systematically higher LTV decisions pre-crisis would have primarily stemmed from risk misperceptions rather than imprudent practices. Our findings suggest that the aggregate LTV level should be interpreted as a proxy for lending standards only after controlling for aggregate risk perceptions, among a host of asset and lending market factors. Our findings also highlight the importance of measuring and tracking aggregate risk perceptions in informing regulators and policymakers.

An Analysis on the Legality of Matchmaking Real Estate Lending by Corporate Platforms (I)

An Analysis on the Legality of Matchmaking Real Estate Lending by Corporate Platforms (I)

Is there a green discount in commercial real estate lending?

PurposeThis study examines whether green buildings enjoy more favorable financing terms compared to their non-green counterparts, exploring the presence of a green discount in commercial real estate lending. Despite the extensive research on green premiums on the equity side, lending has received limited attention in the existing literature, even as regulations have increased and ambitious net-zero targets have been set in the banking sector.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, the authors leverage a unique dataset comprising European commercial loan data spanning from 2018 to 2023, with a total loan value exceeding €30 billion. Hedonic regression analysis is used to isolate a potential green discount. Specifically, the authors rely on property assessments conducted by lenders to investigate whether green properties exhibit lower interest rate spreads and higher loan-to-value (LTV) ratios.FindingsThe findings reveal the existence of a green discount in European commercial real estate lending, with green buildings enjoying a 5.35% lower contracted loan spread and a 3.92% lower target spread compared to their non-green counterparts. However, this analysis does not indicate any distinct advantage in terms of LTV ratios for green buildings.Practical implicationsThis research contributes to a deeper understanding of the interaction between green properties and commercial real estate lending, offering valuable insights for both lenders and investors.Originality/valueThis study, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, represents the first of its kind in a European context and provides empirical evidence for the presence of a green discount.

Big is beautiful: The impact of bank–borrower relationship and sponsor size on credit spreads and underwriting fees in commercial real estate lending

This study uses a granular dataset to examine the impact of relationships between banks and borrowers and sponsor sizes on the credit spread and the associated underwriting fees of commercial real estate loans. This study focuses on commercial real estate banks that keep the loans on their books and do not use commercial mortgage-backed securities to transfer the credit risk to the capital market. Our findings reveal that credit spreads are lower for borrowers with a prior relationship with the bank; however, the impact of repeated lending varies across sponsor sizes. The prior relationship primarily reduces fees for small and medium-sized sponsors, whereas loans with large sponsors experience a stronger beneficial relationship effect in the credit spread.

Is Macroprudential Policy Instrument Blunt? Empirical Analysis Based on Japan's Experience from the 1970s to the 1990s

AbstractMacroprudential instruments, especially sectoral instruments, are considered to be precise tools that work only in areas of concern. However, it has not yet been fully tested in practice whether they affect only the targeted sectors and do not have undesirable spillover effects on nontargeted sectors. To fill this gap, we empirically study the impact of an instrument called Quantitative Restriction (QR), a policy tool used in Japan in the 1990s to curb excessive land price rises by requiring banks to contain real estate lending. We use narrative records to construct QR shocks and estimate their impact using a factor‐augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR). Our findings are summarized as follows. First, contractionary QR shocks reduced not only real estate lending and land prices, but also lending to other industries, putting downward pressure on the macroeconomy and lowering bank solvency. Second, industry groups and banks with balance sheets that were more exposed to changes in land prices and real estate transactions responded greater to these shocks, illustrating the role of balance sheet composition in spillovers and the importance of choosing the right timing for implementation following these shocks, suggesting that there may have been leakages through these institutions. Third, some nonbank financial institutions that were not required to report the loan results to the authorities did not reduce their lending following these shocks, which accords with the view that there were leakages through these institutions.

Introduction: The Structural Power of Finance Meets Financialization

How do we theorize and analyze the structural power of finance when global capitalism itself undergoes constant and profound structural transformation? The literature continues to assume that the source of financial structural power is its unique ability to provide credit to the real economy, playing a crucial role in meeting the investment imperative. But recent research documents that most financial market activities no longer facilitate productive investment and can even be a drag on economic development. If the financial sector's primary role is not to support productive investments, then on what basis does it continue to hold structural power? The contributions to this special issue engage with how decades of financialization have transformed the basis of structural power toward alternative functions that have gone unnoticed in the existing literature. These include household and real estate lending that fuels consumption-led growth, concentration and expansion of financial institutions as tools of geo-economic strategy, financing current account deficits that facilitate global imbalances, and wealth preservation that bolsters inequality.

Banking deregulation, macroeconomic dynamics and monetary policy

We assess the effects of increased bank competition on macroeconomic and lending dynamics and on the transmission of monetary policy. Applying panel local projections to state-level data, we, in a first step, investigate the dynamic effects of fiercer bank competition induced by deregulation allowing geographical expansion of banks across state borders in the 1980s and early-1990s. We allow for possible adjustments before the new laws became effective due to potential anticipation effects. Our findings suggest that these events were anticipated and that they temporarily increased economic activity as well as business and consumer lending. We also find a permanent increase in real estate lending and house prices. In a second step, we show that the impact of monetary policy on economic activity, house prices and lending tended to become stronger after interstate banking deregulation.

Hazardous lending: The impact of natural disasters on bank asset portfolio

This paper examines how banks adjust their asset structure in response to changes in loan demand following natural disasters. We demonstrate how banks’ asset diversification strategy helps clients smooth consumption and supports local recovery. In the empirical section, we apply the difference-in-differences method and determine that U.S. commercial banks increase real estate lending after disasters and sell government bonds to finance this disaster-driven credit surge. The theoretical section presents a novel multiple-asset dynamic credit allocation model that explains our empirical findings. We use model simulations to predict and quantify the potential impact of climate change on the asset structure and profitability of banks given different scenarios.

American Enterprise Institute Roundtable: Government Policies Reshape the Banking System

The U.S. federal government response to the 2008 financial crisis, including new laws, prudential regulations, and Federal Reserve monetary policies, has left a lasting impact on the U.S. banking industry. Along with a nearly 50% drop in the number of independent depository institutions since 2000, the industry has become much more concentrated in a few large “systemically important” institutions. At the same time, the largest banks have responded to incentives provided by increased regulatory requirements and the Fed's zero interest rate policy by reducing their lending to the private sector and increasing both their real estate holdings and their reliance on deposits to fund them.For the five well‐known banking scholars who take part in this AEI‐organized discussion, such recent changes have troubling consequences for both the industry and the broader economy. After economic historian Richard Sylla describes a 100‐year movement of U.S. banking toward a system characterized by a few large banks with extensive branch systems, bank authority Alex Pollock points to the growing role and influence of the Federal Reserve and government‐sponsored enterprises in the “banking credit system.” And bank consultant Bert Ely points to a number of large and growing industry risks. Along with their unprecedented real estate holdings, Ely notes the massive holdings of U.S. government debt by both the Fed—which is identified as having an enormous interest rate mismatch and exposure—and the banks it supervises. At the same time, low interest rates have been squeezing banks’ margins and reducing their capital cushions to absorb losses that may arise from the pandemic.Charles Calomiris, who recently stepped down as Chief Economist of the OCC, views such extreme consolidation as an unhealthy trend—one that, along with banks’ growing dependency on deposits (and hence government guarantees and support) and reliance on real estate lending have become the main components of a “three‐legged stool” that are making large banks and banking systems throughout the world ever more subject to government influence. As a result of such dependence, the U.S. banking system is becoming more vulnerable to economy‐wide “shocks” such as the expected effects of a sharp increase in interest rates or a sudden plummeting of real estate prices. As Calomiris argued in his famous book (with Stephen Haber), U.S. banks—and indeed banks in most nations, thanks to “political bargains” with their governments that seem inevitable—appear to be becoming ever more “fragile by design.”

Boon or Burden? Evaluating the Competing Effects of House-Price Shocks on Regional Entrepreneurship

This paper examines the impact of changes in housing affordability on regional entrepreneurship. Two-way fixed-effects estimates suggest an increase in the level of house prices in a commuting zone results in a decline in establishment openings as a share of existing establishments—consistent with a crowding-out effect. In contrast, an increase in the growth rate of house prices results in a small (although not always statistically significant) increase in establishment openings—consistent with a positive wealth effect from capital gains. To address endogeneity concerns, the authors adopt two alternative instruments for commuting zone house-price growth: a measure of local real estate lending and a geography-based measure of the elasticity of local housing supply. They extend the analysis using restricted-use establishment-level microdata from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) for the state of Colorado. Results from the QCEW data are consistent with those from the commuting zone sample.

Residential House Prices, Commercial Real Estate Lending and Bank Failures

We investigate factors leading to bank failures during and after the Great Recession and banking crisis (2008–2015). The FHFA residential real estate house price index (HPI) for each of the 9 Census regions is used to interact with bank mortgage loans and bank financial statement variables. We find that these variables isolate different regional effects on the likelihood of a bank failing. Since we use changes from region to region, we find that regional location and HPI changes have an effect on banks’ commercial lending activity. Other more traditional and associated factors, like construction and land development lending or multifamily real estate lending, similarly explain bank failures during the main period of the banking crisis. By using this approach we better isolate the relationship between residential house prices and builders’ and land developers’ desire to borrow and the willingness of banks to concentrate portfolio lending in commercial real estate.

Modelling sustainable rents for estimation of long-term or fundamental values of commercial real estate

ABSTRACT Commercial real estate occupier markets are analysed in the context of the debate over the role of real estate lending in financial stability and the search for long-term valuation methods to complement market value estimations. Models of sustainable rent, including a long-term trend model and an econometric equilibrium rent model, are tested to examine whether they provide early warning of upcoming corrections in real rental values. Models were estimated using rental value data for the UK and predictions of corrections from the mid-1980s through to 2018/9 and were then compared against actual real rental growth. The models were successful in identifying the occupier market crash of the 1990s and the more muted downturn of the early 2000s, but were less successful at predicting the falls in real rental value that followed the GFC in 2008/9. There is a late reaction to this downturn in estimates from the econometric model, while other approaches struggled to identify it at all. Econometric modelling of sustainable rental values is the recommended approach and could be used in conjunction with a model of sustainable cap rates to develop long-term valuations. This would aid lending decisions and provide evidence for regulators of cyclical movements in CRE markets. For the UK, there are data issues related to this recommendation, especially concerning stock data.

The Effect of Large Scale Asset Purchases in 2020 on Bank Lending

The paper estimates the effect of large scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve System on bank lending in 2020. The identification strategy exploits the cross-sectional variation in treasury and mortgage-backed security holdings in the bank balance sheet. The identification strategy used is augmented inverse propensity weighing to get unbiased, consistent and efficient estimates. The results show that large scale asset purchases reduced total lending by 0.23% and increased riskier commercial and industrial lending by up to 0.85% and real estate lending by up to 1.38%.

The Increasing Trend in Commercial Real Estate Lending by Community Banks: The Role of Deliberate Risk-Taking, 2001-2017

Much attention focuses on the role of real estate lending by banks as a precipitating factor in past financial crises, and especially with respect to the 2007-2008 crisis. Over the past five years, U.S. banks have increased their commercial real estate lending dramatically, raising concern among regulators about the potential for another financial crisis. In this paper, we analyze post-recessionary trends to determine whether the same dangerous pre-recessionary risk-taking trends are emerging. Regulators devote most of their attention to the banking sector with little regard to the role played by its various subgroups. This may explain why there is little research analyzing the specific role of community banks in sparking a financial crisis. In this study, we present a disaggregated analysis that focuses on the potential risks of increased commercial real estate lending from a comparative perspective, examining community banks vis-a-vis larger banking institutions, paying particular attention to the role of deliberate bank risk-taking as a causal factor in increased community bank commercial real estate CRE lending since the Great Recession.

Mortgage Loan: Assessment of the Current Situation and Impact on the Solution of Housing Problems

The development of the mortgage market solves both the economic problems of activation and efficient use of financial resources, and social problems in attracting social groups to meet their needs through the mechanism of the financial market. This determines the pattern of development of ways to ensure and develop these processes in Ukraine, their theoretical justification, taking into account the peculiarities of the national economy and current global trends in the development of housing mortgage lending. The purpose of the work is to develop theoretical principles, guidelines and practical recommendations for improving the mortgage lending system in Ukraine. To achieve this goal, the following tasks were set: to summarize the theoretical provisions on the essence of mortgage lending; to analyze the current state of mortgage lending in Ukraine; identify conceptual approaches to enhancing the importance of mortgage credit in solving housing problems. The object of study is the process of assessing mortgage lending. The subject of the research is theoretical-methodical and practical aspects of mortgage lending in Ukraine and its impact on solving housing problems of the population. The paper summarizes the theoretical provisions on the essence of mortgage lending as an effective means of transforming capital tied to real estate; thanks to the analysis of the current state of mortgage lending in Ukraine it is proved that it is one of the most mobile segments of the financial market and today real estate lending has intensified and started to grow, but significant mortgage lending as before the crisis, unfortunately, has not yet been achieved; conceptual approaches to strengthening the importance of mortgage credit in solving housing problems, which are to improve the mortgage lending system in Ukraine. The information base of the study consisted of official materials of the National Bank of Ukraine, performance indicators of JSC "State Savings Bank of Ukraine", JSC CB "Globus", PJSC JSCB "Arcade", JSB "Ukrgasbank", materials of scientific conferences, Internet sources. The scientific novelty of this work is to substantiate the theoretical, legal provisions and provide practical recommendations for improving the mortgage lending system in Ukraine.

Mortgage Lending as a Component of Economic Growth

The purpose of the article is to reveal the role and importance of the mortgage lending development to overcome the financial and economic crisis and ensure the positive dynamics of macroeconomic indicators. The article reveals the essence of mortgage lending, substantiates the necessity of its development and improvement to create an effective mortgage lending system in Ukraine, which helps to solve the problems related to providing housing for the population and accelerating the development of not only the construction industry but also related areas of the activity. It is proven within the study that the volume and dynamics of the investment in housing has a significant impact on the macroeconomics, and therefore, by improving the mortgage lending system, it is possible to transmit positive impulses to the real sector of the economy and bring the country out of crisis. The article outlines the features of a mortgage lending which distinguish it into a separate sphere in the credit market. Based on these features, the functions of mortgage lending in modern conditions are defined, namely: investment, social, stimulating, and formation of the fictitious capital in the securities market. The research proves the importance of developing and improving mortgage lending by identifying the benefits and disadvantages of all credit entities. On the basis of statistics, the main parameters of the domestic mortgage market, which indicate a conservative approach to the formation of lending conditions and the reluctance of banking institutions to provide long-term mortgages, are determined. The main reason for this situation is the imperfect legal base of real estate lending. It has been concluded by the study results that mortgage lending is an important tool for ensuring the social and economic growth of a country, and its role and importance have increased significantly since the financial and economic crisis. JEL classіfіcatіon: G21 Manuscript received 27.04.2020

Female leadership and bank risk-taking: Evidence from the effects of real estate shocks on bank lending performance and default risk

This paper examines whether banks with female Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) and chairpersons of the board are associated with better lending performance and lower default risk when faced with severe real estate price shocks. Using a large panel of U.S. commercial banks, we document that female-led banks with high real estate exposure are associated with lower loan charge-offs and lower non-accrual loans relative to similar male-led banks. Furthermore, our empirical findings indicate that female-led banks with high real estate exposure have lower default risk and are less likely to fail in the aftermath of real estate price shocks. However, we find no evidence of superior lending performance or reduced default risk for female-led banks which are not exposed to severe real estate price shocks through high levels of real estate lending.

Quantitative Easing and Bank Lending: The Liquidity Channel

This paper provides direct evidence on the effect of quantitative easing (QE) policies on bank lending through the liquidity channel. By looking at changes in banks' liquidity-lending sensitivity in different rounds of QE, our results show that banks with higher levels of cash & reserve holding (especially excess reserves) are more responsive to the large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) after the 2007-08 financial crisis, compared to their liquidity-constrained counterparts. Interestingly, we find this liquidity channel to be almost equally significant for both C&I loans and real estate lending. Our results are robust to different specifications, alternative measures of banks' liquidity constraint, and inclusion of controls for demand-side factors. Further analysis indicates that this liquidity channel is distinct from the net-worth channel and capital requirement constraint documented in the literature.

FEATURES OF MORTGAGE FINANCE IN THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY

This article examines the features of the mortgage lending market development in Germany. The types and classifications of mortgage products are analyzed in detail. After analyzing the essence of the system of long-term residential real estate lending, we can analyze the dependence on the development of credit products and the growth in lending. Also, a separate section in the article considers financial costs and features of tax legislation