Real Estate Exposure Research Articles

Commercial real estate exposure and bank counterparty risk

Detailed analysis of December 2023 bank regulatory data suggests that unrealised interest rate losses in the banking system amplify banks' true commercial real estate (CRE) loan concentrations making CRE exposures much more consequential than traditional supervisory CRE loan concentration measures suggest. Taken together, weak demand for several types of commercial properties, sustained unexpectedly high interest rates and the concentration of CRE loans in many bank portfolios may magnify the risk of many financial institution's uncollateralised exposures to bank counterparties.

The performance of non-listed opportunity real estate funds in China

PurposeOpportunity real estate funds are an important style of real estate investing for institutional investors seeking nonlisted real estate exposure. Importantly, institutional investors have sought exposure to the China real estate market, often via opportunity real estate funds. This has been by a pure China opportunity real estate fund (100% China opportunity real estate) or by a pan-Asia opportunity real estate fund where China opportunity real estate was part of this pan-Asia opportunity real estate portfolio. Using two bespoke China opportunity real estate indices developed by the authors, this paper aims to assess the risk-adjusted performance and portfolio diversification benefits of China opportunity real estate in a mixed-asset portfolio over 2008–2020. It also highlights critical issues for institutional investors going forward to factor into their real estate investment decision-making for effective China real estate exposure.Design/methodology/approachThis paper develops two bespoke China opportunity real estate fund performance indices to assess the risk-adjusted performance and portfolio diversification benefits of China opportunity real estate funds in a mixed-asset portfolio over 2008–2020. An asset allocation diagram is used to assess the role of China opportunity real estate in a mixed-asset portfolio via both the non-listed and listed real estate investment channels.FindingsOver 2008–2020, China opportunity real estate exposure via pan-Asia opportunity real estate funds were seen to outperform pure China opportunity real estate funds. In both formats, China opportunity real estate funds were seen to have a significant role in a China mixed-asset portfolio across most of the portfolio risk spectrum; particularly compared to listed real estate exposure in China. On-going issues regarding real estate risk management in China will take on increased importance for institutional investors seeking China real estate exposure.Practical implicationsOpportunity real estate funds are an important style of real estate investing, often used by institutional investors to gain non-listed real estate exposure in a developing real estate market. This style of real estate investing has been popular with institutional investors seeking exposure to China real estate as part of the China economic growth dynamic. The results of this research highlight the importance of opportunity real estate investing in China, both via a pure China opportunity real estate fund and via a pan-Asia opportunity real estate fund. Based on this empirical analysis, China opportunity real estate exposure is seen to be more effective via a pan-Asia opportunity real estate fund than a 100% China opportunity real estate fund. A range of practical China real estate investment issues are also highlighted for the effective delivery of China real estate exposure for institutional investors going forward; this particularly relates to the on-going risk management for real estate investment in China.Originality/valueThis paper is the first empirical research analysis of the risk-adjusted performance of China opportunity real estate and its role in a mixed-asset portfolio. Using bespoke China opportunity real estate fund indices developed by the authors, this research enables empirically-validated, more informed and practical opportunity real estate investment decision-making regarding the strategic role of China opportunity real estate in an institutional investor's portfolio. It also highlights the importance of various facets of real estate risk management in China going forward.

Commercial Property Exposure and Corporation Financing Choice

This study explores the possible relationship between a corporation’s capital structure and its commercial property exposure as well as property market characteristics. Using data from the heavily levered and rapidly growing U.S. telecommunications industry, we find a positive association between leverage and commercial property exposure via commercial property ownership since the 1996 telecommunications industry deregulation, after controlling for traditional capital structure determinants, and the association is particularly prominent during the 2007-2009 Great Recession. A possible justification is the collateral effect of real estate properties on leverage. The exposure through property leases also play (albeit smaller) roles in the financing choice. Our findings generally suggest a non-trivial influence of real estate exposure to the firms’ financing choices, especially when the capital market is tight hence the collateral effect is critical.

Three Decades of Global Institutional Investment in Commercial Real Estate

Alternative assets represent an increasing share of pension fund assets, and real estate is a cornerstone of that allocation. This article investigates the trends in pension fund real estate investments over the past 3 decades, both in private and in public real estate, focusing on the performance of the asset class for the ultimate asset owners. The development of pension fund allocations to real estate differs across regions, with allocations increasing in Canada, stationary in the US, and shrinking in Europe. Slightly more than 10% of the real estate exposure is through publicly listed vehicles. Within the real estate portfolio, the authors observe a continuing increase in the use of external fund managers. Investment costs are stationary, with pension funds in the US structurally paying more to their external private real estate managers than their peers in Canada and Europe. Costs relating to public real estate are more equal across regions. In terms of performance, the authors observe rather stable total returns for both private and listed real estate over the past 3 decades, contrasting volatile performance of private equity and infrastructure. Intermediated investment management for private real estate is costly, leading to disproportionately lower net returns. <b>Key Findings</b> ▪ Current pension fund allocation to real estate is 8.3%, on average, with a 90/10 split between private real estate and public real estate. ▪ Pension funds deploy a wide range of real estate allocation strategies, with intermediation growing in popularity over the past decades. ▪ Real estate has provided stable returns over the past decades, with gross returns similar to stocks, and net returns in between bonds and stocks.

Risk Management in Financial Institutions: A Replication

ABSTRACTRampini, Viswanathan, and Vuillemey (RVV) show empirically that net worth drives hedging. I identify discrepancies to which RVV's key findings are not robust: the positive correlation between net worth and hedging is not independent of institution size, house price decline shocks to net worth (which RVV use for identification) have mixed effects on hedging that are not robust across alternative specifications, and the treatment effects on net worth and hedging are not increasing in real estate exposure, inconsistent with a causal explanation. Overall, my analysis does not support the conclusion of RVV that higher net worth causes more hedging.

Institutional Investors and Home-Biased REITs

Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are frequently considered an investment opportunity for institutional investors due to their above-average returns with respect to other financial instruments. Due to the unique characteristics of the real estate market, geographically specialized (home-biased) REITs can normally benefit from higher-quality information for selecting investment opportunities and from a reduction of the cost of monitoring and servicing asset owners. Home-biased REITs can be particularly appealing for institutional investors because the addition of this type of asset to an already diversified investment portfolio can optimize the risk–return of their investment strategy and mitigate the concentration of real estate investments. This paper considers all the REITs in Standard & Poor’s Global REIT Index and evaluates the percentage of investment released by (domestic and foreign) institutional investors and its change over time. Focusing on REITs’ international real estate exposure, this paper shows that geographical diversification matters for investment decisions made by international investors and the results are robust with respect to the time horizon and the proxy for ownership concentration.

Reexamining the Real Estate Quadrants

The real estate quadrant approach for categorizing the real estate investment universe is now 20 years old. These investment conduits have developed significantly over this time, and real estate allocations are shaped by both market and regulatory forces, which are leading investors to reexamine the broadening of blended strategies across these quadrants. In this article, the performance and interrelationships between the quadrants and the way that these have evolved over time are examined. The results show that significant diversification benefits are available to investors using the quadrants. The commercial mortgage-backed securities market is found to be the main transmitter of shocks among the quadrants and private real estate the most significant receiver, with a meaningful shift in their relationships before and after the global financial crisis. Finally, blended real estate portfolios are found to reduce estimated risk and enhance the risk-adjusted performance of a purely private real estate exposure. <b>Key Findings</b> ▪ Significant diversification benefits are available to investors using all forms of real estate exposure, given our finding that less than one-third of the system is influenced by itself in isolation. ▪ Using the dynamic connectedness methodology, the study finds that public real estate debt is the main transmitter of shocks among the quadrants and that private real estate equity is the most significant receiver of shocks among the real estate quadrants. ▪ Further evidence of blended real estate portfolios enhance the risk-adjusted performance of a purely private real estate exposure.

The Performance of Non-Listed Opportunity Real Estate Funds in China

Institutional investors have sought exposure to the China real estate market, often via opportunity real estate funds. This has been by a pure China opportunity real estate fund or by a pan-Asia opportunity real estate fund where China opportunity real estate was part of this real estate portfolio. This paper develops two bespoke China opportunity real estate fund performance indices to assess the risk-adjusted performance and diversification benefits of China opportunity real estate funds in a mixed-asset portfolio. Over 2008-2019, pan-Asia opportunity real estate funds were seen to outperform pure China opportunity real estate funds. China opportunity real estate funds were seen to have a role in a China mixed-asset portfolio; particularly at lower risk levels in the portfolio risk spectrum. This paper also highlights critical issues for institutional investors for effective China real estate exposure.

Three Decades of Global Institutional Investment in Real Estate

Alternative assets represent an increasing share of pension fund assets, and real estate is a cornerstone of that allocation. This paper investigates the trends in pension fund real estate investments over the last three decades, both in private and in public real estate, focusing on the performance of the asset class for the ultimate asset owners. The development of pension fund allocations to real estate differs across regions, with allocations increasing in Canada, stationary in the U.S., and shrinking in Europe. Just over 10% of the real estate exposure is through publicly listed vehicles. Within the real estate portfolio, the authors observe a continuing increase in the use of external fund managers. Investment costs are stationary, with pension funds in the U.S. structurally paying more to their external private real estate managers than their peers in Canada and Europe. Costs relating to public real estate are more equal across regions. In terms of performance, the authors observe rather stable total returns for both private and listed real estate over the last three decades, contrasting volatile performance of private equity and infrastructure. Intermediated investment management for private real estate is costly, leading to disproportionately lower net returns.

Female leadership and bank risk-taking: Evidence from the effects of real estate shocks on bank lending performance and default risk

This paper examines whether banks with female Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) and chairpersons of the board are associated with better lending performance and lower default risk when faced with severe real estate price shocks. Using a large panel of U.S. commercial banks, we document that female-led banks with high real estate exposure are associated with lower loan charge-offs and lower non-accrual loans relative to similar male-led banks. Furthermore, our empirical findings indicate that female-led banks with high real estate exposure have lower default risk and are less likely to fail in the aftermath of real estate price shocks. However, we find no evidence of superior lending performance or reduced default risk for female-led banks which are not exposed to severe real estate price shocks through high levels of real estate lending.

Retracted: Risk Management in Financial Institutions

ABSTRACTWe study risk management in financial institutions using data on hedging of interest rate and foreign exchange risk. We find strong evidence that institutions with higher net worth hedge more, controlling for risk exposures, across institutions and within institutions over time. For identification, we exploit net worth shocks resulting from loan losses due to declines in house prices. Institutions that sustain such shocks reduce hedging significantly relative to otherwise‐similar institutions. The reduction in hedging is differentially larger among institutions with high real estate exposure. The evidence is consistent with the theory that financial constraints impede both financing and hedging.

Real Estate Performance, the Macroeconomy and Leverage

Using U.S. data for 1986-2017, the paper focuses on the impacts of macroeconomic risk factors and leverage on the performance of the various types of real estate exposure (direct, non-listed, and listed). The response of core funds to economic risk factors is akin to that of direct investments; however, real estate fund and direct investment performance are less tightly related as more aggressive (i.e., value-added and opportunistic) strategies are envisaged. Only REIT performance is linked to that of the stock market. Leverage matters as it amplifies the responses to the economic factors and hence investment risk.

Sea Level Rise in Miami Beach: Vulnerability and Real Estate Exposure

Sea level rise threatens coastal communities throughout the United States, and South Florida is on the front line. The iconic and built-up city of Miami Beach, Florida, has a well-developed, high-value property market, and the municipality has been lauded for proactively taking action to adapt to anticipated sea level rise. Moving beyond hyperbole and piecemeal evidence, we compile a comprehensive inventory of adaptation and mitigation measures implemented by various municipal agencies. We employ these data sets to measure exposure and readiness for the entire city and make a preliminary effort to develop a city vulnerability index. Our findings reveal that exposure throughout the city is high and that readiness is concentrated near stormwater drainage systems, leading to high vulnerability along the coast. When we compare the spatial patterns of the vulnerability index and the residential property values, we find a mismatch. The most vulnerable regions are characterized by high income, transiency, and an apparent unresponsiveness to sea level rise. No doubt our findings illustrate a lag effect, but if sea level rise increases, the real estate market could reach a tipping point unless state and federal agencies also fund more comprehensive adaptation.

Do Female CEOs and Chairwomen Constrain Bank Risk-Taking?: Evidence From the Effects of Real Estate Shocks on Lending Performance and Default Risk

This paper examines whether banks with female Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) and chairpersons of the board are associated with better lending performance and lower default risk when faced with severe real estate price shocks. Using a large panel of U.S. commercial banks, we document that female-led banks with high real estate exposure are associated with lower loan charge-offs and lower non-accrual loans relative to similar male-led banks. Furthermore, our empirical findings indicate that female-led banks with high real estate exposure have lower default risk and are less likely to fail in the aftermath of real estate price shocks. However, we find no evidence of superior lending performance or reduced default risk for female-led banks which are not exposed to severe real estate price shocks through high levels of real estate lending.

The 4% rule: Does real estate make a difference?

This paper examines the wealth maximisation and preservation effects of including commercial real estate in retirement-phase portfolio management. Prior research addresses the role of real estate during the wealth-accumulation phase of the investor lifecycle; however, little is known about the contribution of real estate during the invest-and-spend, or decumulation, phase. To address this issue, we estimate short-fall risk based on the widely known 4% Rule. We use pricing data for multiple asset classes and simulation techniques, combined with a robust correlation structure, to examine: short-fall risk sensitivity to alternative spending rules; the impact of public vs. private real estate allocations; wealth preservation as an investment objective; and the effect of real estate on upside, or wealth maximisation, potential. We find short-fall risk in a decumulation portfolio decreases with substantial allocations to real estate. This result holds for a portfolio including either public or private real estate. Additionally, and under most conditions, the best performing decumulation-phase portfolios include a real estate allocation with both public and private real estate exposure. These results have significant implications for investors, whether they be retirees, plan administrators or endowments, as well as financial economists studying the lifecycle of investment decisions.

Managing Real Estate Exposure: An Empirical Analysis on Interest Rate Risk

Real estate is an illiquid investment with cyclical returns, so risk management techniques should be used for sustainable returns. The risk management techniques include asset based, portfolio, insurance and derivatives solutions. Asset based solutions include the risk character of the real estate, based on where it’s located and how well it is developed. Some property such as foreclosure and those require maintenance is riskier than others. Portfolio solutions allow real estate companies to include real estate with different location and segments such as office and retail. Using this, the risk is limited to the systematic component, where asset based-idiosyncratic risk is tried to be reduced when included enough number of assets to the basket. The management should be capable of determining which risks taking and which to transfer. Some risks such as earthquake, fire, vehicle crush, terrorist activities are rare in nature but can cause severe damage when it takes place. The insurance policies can cover these events which most of the time are reinsured. In addition derivatives are available to hedge some of the risks. These can be traded on the market or over-the-counter. By using derivatives it is possible to hedge interest rate risk, inflation, currency risks, and property price changes. To hedge interest rate risk which is also studied in this paper, instruments such as cap, swap, and collar are available. The research is investigating the role of interest rate risk in the performance of real estate management companies. The variables used in this research are 30 years treasury yield, and exchange closing price for CBRE Group Inc., Colliers International Group, and Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated. The data is daily for the period 16 June 2004 and 19 June 2015. The methods used are Johansen Cointegration and Granger Causality. The results of the study indicate there is a short-run and long-run relationship between interest rate and real estate management firm stock performance. In other words, interest rate fluctuation is a critical risk in performance of real estate management companies. In the paper, it is also discussed risk mitigation ideas for controlling this and other risks that real estate management industry is exposed.

Risk factors of European non-listed real estate fund returns

This research contributes to a better assessment of risk factors impacting non-listed real estate fund returns. Both macroeconomic and fund-specific factors are considered, additionally taking into account the phase of the real estate cycle. Using a rich database of fund-level data for Europe, we apply panel regression techniques with random effects. Our results highlight the significant impacts of real GDP growth, interest rates, inflation components, money supply and stock market returns in explaining non-listed fund returns. Size, gearing, investment style, vehicle structure and vintage also affect returns, whereas property type does not appear to matter. For comparison purposes, the same analysis is performed for listed and direct real estate. The three kinds of real estate exposure are found to react broadly in the same way to macroeconomic risk factors, although our analyses suggest that non-listed real estate is more akin to direct real estate than it is to securitised real estate.

Risk Factors of European Non-Listed Real Estate Fund Returns

This research contributes to a better assessment of risk factors impacting non-listed real estate fund returns. Both macroeconomic and fund-specific factors are considered, additionally taking into account the phase of the real estate cycle. Using a rich database of fund-level data for Europe, we apply panel regression techniques with random effects. Our results highlight the significant impacts of real GDP growth, interest rates, inflation components, money supply and stock market returns in explaining non-listed fund returns. Size, gearing, investment style, vehicle structure and vintage also affect returns, whereas property type does not appear to matter. For comparison purposes, the same analysis is performed for listed and direct real estate. The three kinds of real estate exposure are found to react broadly in the same way to macroeconomic risk factors although our analyses suggest that non-listed real estate is more akin to direct real estate than it is to securitized real estate.

THE IMPACT OF REAL ESTATE LENDING ON THRIFTS' FRANCHISE VALUES DURING THE 2007–2009 CRISIS: A COMPARISON WITH COMMERCIAL BANKS

AbstractThe real estate bubble and 2007–2009 financial crisis revived the debate about the viability of the thrift charter and its imposed limits on lending diversification. We compare the impact of real estate exposure on franchise values of publicly traded thrifts and size‐matched banks during and after the crisis. Whereas thrifts are mostly exposed to residential real estate, banks have a higher concentration in commercial real estate (CRE), which is significantly associated with the decline in their franchise values. We conclude that the constraints on loan portfolio diversification, such as the one on CRE, are not detrimental to the thrift charter.

Real Estate Exposure and Bank Share Price Synchronicity

Executive Summary. Opaque assets can affect the stock price dynamics of banks due to the lower amount of information available in the market. Real estate is considered an opaque asset but there is no evidence of the impact of real estate exposure on stock price dynamics. In this paper, we evaluate the effect of real estate exposure on bank price synchronicity for lenders with different exposures in real estate lending. The results show that exposure in the real estate sector can negatively affect the degree of synchronicity, but the risk of losses is lower for real estate banks even if the exposure to crash risk is almost the same with respect to other banks. If we consider diversified portfolios, investors more interested in real estate banks reduce their risk exposure by investing only in big players.