Rational Investment Decisions Research Articles

The Influence of Anchoring and Overconfidence on Investment Decision-Making in the Saudi Stock Market: A Moderated Mediation Model

Abstract This research sheds light on the relationships between heuristic biases and investment decisions as demonstrated by Saudi investors by establishing a mediating role for investor overconfidence in the relationship between anchoring heuristics and investment decision-making. The first to present evidence for this role, the study takes into account specific types of investment decisions – i.e. decisions to buy, sell, and engage in frequent trading. Based on a sample of 598 responses, empirical evidence is presented to show that anchoring directly increases the extent to which investment decisions are irrational and also does so indirectly through its impact on overconfidence. Given that this is the case, investors would be well-advised to critically assess the influence on their investment decision-making of overconfidence, which may, in turn, be rooted in deep-seated biases such as anchoring. Further, the potential moderating effect of trading frequency on overconfidence and investment decisions is examined and a moderated mediation model presented to elucidate the relationship between anchoring bias and investment decisions. The findings underscore the importance of understanding these biases and taking a scientific approach to trading, including by engaging in infrequent trading, to producing more rational investment decisions. Put differently, the study highlights the benefit of infrequent over frequent trading: Compared to those who trade less frequently, investors who trade more frequently are more susceptible to overconfidence and anchoring biases.

Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty and Commodity Markets on Sustainable Stock in Seven Emerging Markets

The increase in global economic policy uncertainty (EPU), volatility or stock market uncertainty (VIX), and geopolitical risk (GPR) has affected gold prices (GD), crude oil prices (WTI), and stock markets, which present challenges for investors. Sustainable stock investments in emerging markets may minimize and diversify investor risk. We applied the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to examine the effects of EPU, VIX, GPR, GD, and WTI on sustainable stocks in seven emerging markets (Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa, Taiwan, and South Korea) from January 2012 to June 2023. EPU, VIX, GPR, GD, and WTI showed non-linear cointegration with sustainable stocks in seven emerging markets and possessed different asymmetric effects in the short and long run. Change in EPU increases the return of Thailand’s sustainable stock in the long run. The long-run GPR only affects the return of Indonesian sustainable stock. All sustainable stocks are negatively affected by the VIX and positively affected by GD in the short and long run. Additionally, long-run WTI negatively affects the return of Indonesia’s sustainable stocks. Our findings contribute to rational investment decisions on sustainable stocks, including gold and crude oil prices, to hedge the asymmetric effect of uncertainty.

Role of Accounting Information in Decision Making in Co-Operative in Kirtipur Municipality, Kathmandu

The accounting information is used co-operative as well as business sectors. It makes easy to managerial and operational decision of an organization. The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of accounting information on investment and marketing decision in co-operative in Kirtipur. Accounting information plays an important role in sustaining a competitive market. Rational investment and marketing decisions can save cooperatives from the present financial crisis. This research is quantitative in nature and deductive in approach. It followed field survey based on convenience sampling. SPSS was used to analyze the data collected from 60 usable questionnaires returned from respondents. The total population of the study is 96. The p-value is 0.000, which is less than 1% level of significance. So, the ANOVA table indicates that the model is fitted. There is a significant impact of accounting information on investment and marketing decisions. In the competitive age accounting information is important for investment and marketing related decision for survive and growth of co-operatives.

The effect of financial literacy and demographic variable on behavioral biases

The current research investigates the association between demographic factors, including financial knowledge and demographic characteristics like gender, occupation, age, education, and income, and investor behavior biases, including bias against overconfidence, disposition effect, and herding bias. Further enhancement of behavioural finance research is required in Indonesia. This study applied a quantitative analysis technique called structural equation modeling. Stock investors aged 17 and 40 were given questionnaires for this study. Respondent data collection was carried out by distributing questionnaires through several social media sites, such as Line, WhatsApp, and Instagram, to members of the investor’s community. The total number of respondents obtained from distributing this questionnaire was 170. According to the study, overconfidence bias significantly affects income and financial literacy. However, overconfidence bias does not affect gender, occupation, investment experience, education, or age. Furthermore, for behavioral biases, the disposition effect does not affect financial literacy or all demographic factors. Finally, for herding behavior bias, bias significantly affects financial literacy, investment experience, and income, but herding bias does not affect gender, occupation, education, age, or income. These results have implications for investors with a high level of financial literacy, which will help them determine rational investment decisions. This research also has implications for high-income investors who tend not to follow herding behavior.

An Impact of Behavioral Bias on Investment Decision Making of Individual Investors

Behavioral finance has gained increasing prominence in understanding the role of psychological factors in shaping investment decisions. This study aims to investigate the impact of various behavioral biases on the investment decision-making process of individual investors. Specifically, it examines the prevalence and influence of biases such as confirmation bias, loss aversion, herding behavior, overconfidence, and regret aversion among individual investors. The study employs a quantitative approach, collecting data through a structured questionnaire from a sample of 201 individual investors. Descriptive statistics, correlation analyses, chi-square tests, and reliability measures are utilized to analyze the data and assess the relationships between behavioral biases, demographic factors, investment characteristics, and investment decisions. The findings reveal that behavioral biases are prevalent among the respondents, with varying degrees of influence on their investment decisions. Significant associations are observed between certain biases and factors such as annual income, percentage of investment from savings, frequency of investments, and investment types. For instance, individuals with higher incomes exhibit slightly more loss aversion tendencies, while those investing a higher percentage of their savings tend to demonstrate greater confirmation bias. The study contributes to the understanding of behavioral finance by providing empirical evidence on the impact of various biases on individual investors' decision-making processes. It highlights the importance of recognizing and mitigating these biases to promote more informed and rational investment decisions. The findings have implications for individual investors, financial advisors, and policymakers in developing strategies to enhance investment decision-making and overall financial well-being.

A decision model to value football player investments under uncertainty

PurposeFrom the buying club’s perspective, the transfer of a player can be interpreted as an investment from which the club expects uncertain future benefits. This paper aims to develop a decision-oriented approach for the valuation of football players that could theoretically help clubs determine the subjective value of investing in a player to assess its potential economic advantage.Design/methodology/approachWe build on a semi-investment-theoretical risk-value model and elaborate an approach that can be applied in imperfect markets under uncertainty. Furthermore, we illustrate the valuation process with a numerical example based on fictitious data. Due to this explicitly intended decision support, our approach differs fundamentally from a large part of the literature, which is empirically based and attempts to explain observable figures through various influencing factors.FindingsWe propose a semi-investment-theoretical valuation approach that is based on a two-step model, namely, a first valuation at the club level and a final calculation to determine the decision value for an individual player. In contrast to the previous literature, we do not rely on an econometric framework that attempts to explain observable past variables but rather present a general, forward-looking decision model that can support managers in their investment decisions.Originality/valueThis approach is the first to show managers how to make an economically rational investment decision by determining the maximum payable price. Nevertheless, there is no normative requirement for the decision-maker. The club will obviously have to supplement the calculus with nonfinancial objectives. Overall, our paper can constitute a first step toward decision-oriented player valuation and for theoretical comparison with practical investment decisions in football clubs, which obviously take into account other specific sports team decisions.

Value relevance of IFRS adoption in the deposit money banks in Nigeria

The prime role of financial statements is to provide information that is useful to existing and potential investors, creditors and other users in making rational investment and similar decisions. Accounting information is a product of Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), standards and other institutional settings which are presumed to shape the form and content of the financial reports. Uniform accounting standards assist investors and other market participants to effectively analyze firms from countries with accounting standards that they are familiar with and that IFRSs are adopted in order to achieve information of higher quality than local standards. Value relevance is one of the most common methods of examining the quality of accounting information. Information has the quality of relevance when it influences the economic decisions of users. This study examined value relevance of accounting information after the mandatory IFRSs adoption in the Nigerian Banking industry. Correlational research design using pre-and-post IFRSs regime analysis in a sample of 15 banks for a period of 8 years (2008-2015) was employed. Panel regression technique of data analysis was used and the study found that the adoption of IFRS has significantly improved the value relevance (decision usefulness) of accounting information of deposit money banks in Nigeria during the period covered by the study. However, the results show that the adoption of IFRS improves the value relevance of book values of equity and accounting earnings significantly. We recommend that accounting regulators should investigate the implementation credibility of IFRS in the Nigerian banks.

How do the determinants of investment decisions get prioritized? Peeking into the minds of investors

PurposeInvestment decisions hold immense significance for investors and eventually affect their portfolio performance. Investors are advised to weigh the costs and benefits associated with every decision in order to make rational investment decisions. However, behavioral finance research reveals that investors' choices often stem from a blend of economic, psychological and sociological factors, leading to irrationality. Moreover, environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) factors, aligned with behavioral finance hypotheses, also sway opinions and stock prices. Hence, this study aims to identify how individual equity investors prioritize key determinants of investment decisions in the Indian stock market.Design/methodology/approachThe current research gathered data from 391 individual equity investors through a structured questionnaire. Thereafter, a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (F-AHP) was used to meet the purpose of the research.FindingsInformation availability, representative heuristics belonging to psychological factors and macroeconomic indicators falling under economic factors were discovered to be the three most prioritized criteria, whereas environmental issues within the realm of ESG factors, recommendations of brokers or investment consultants of sociological factors, and social issues belonging to ESG factors were found to be the least prioritized criteria, respectively.Research limitations/implicationsOnly active and experienced individual equity investors were surveyed in this study. Furthermore, with a sample size of 391 participants, the study was confined to individual equity investors in one nation, India.Practical implicationsThis research has implications for individual investors, institutional investors, market regulators, corporations, financial advisors, portfolio managers, policymakers and society as a whole.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, no real attempt has been made to comprehend how active and experienced individual investors prioritize critical determinants of investment decisions by taking economic, psychological, sociological and ESG factors collectively under consideration.

Gender differences in risk perception and investment behavior

Purpose- Gender differences in investment behavior have been reported by various studies. Behavioral investing seeks to bridge the gap between psychology and investing. Behavioral finance is becoming more predominant in the financial and investment industry. The general concept of behavioral finance suggests that investors do not necessarily make rational investment decisions. Many results of behavioral finance studies show that men and women have different strengths and weaknesses in terms of skills required for investment management. This study focuses on the role of gender in risk perception and investment behavior, with a sample size of 288 respondents. In other words, the aim of the research is to reveal whether there is a difference in investment preferences between men and women. It is investigated whether the gender factor affects investment decision-making behavior. Using an experimental finance approach, the relationship between gender diversity and investment decisions is examined. Methodology- This study focuses on the role of gender in risk perception and investment behavior, with a sample size of 288 respondents. Gender differences in investment behavior have been reported by various studies. Behavioral investing seeks to bridge the gap between psychology and investing. Behavioral finance is becoming more predominant in the financial and investment industry. The general concept of behavioral finance suggests that investors do not necessarily make rational investment decisions. In accordance with the aim of the research, to reveal whether there is a difference in investment choices between men and women, the investment differences between the genders are shown using the graphic method in this study. Then, the normality test and Mann-Whitney U test were applied by using 288 respondents, respectively. Findings- According to the graphic method results it is found that women generally prefer to invest between 10% and 25% of their monthly income in financial markets. T cryptocurrency market is riskier than the stock market for both women and men. Women experience more stress than men at the thought of losing money because of their investment choices. The Cronbach Alpha coefficient for estimating the reliability of the scale employed for respondents’ investment preference was found to be 0.701. The results of data processing obtained by the value of the Kolmogorov-Simirnov significant which means the data were not normally distributed residuals. According to Mann-Whitney U test results, it is underlined that the gender factor differs according to the following variables based on 95% significance level: Conclusion- Survey with different aspects of questions focus on investors’ risk perception. “How often do you check your investments?”; “What is your approximate holding time of an investment instrument?”; “What percentage of your monthly income would you prefer to invest in financial markets?”; “The thought of losing money because of my investment choices is stressed me out”; “Have you ever invested in Cryptocurrencies?”; “What is the most suitable option for your knowledge of the cryptocurrency market?”. It is concluded that there is a significant difference between gender and investment preference. Keywords: Behavioural finance, financial market, cryptocurrency, gender factor, risk perception. JEL Codes: G10, G40, G41

A Literature Review on the Influence of Availability Bias and Overconfidence Bias on Investor Decisions

This research examines the impact of Availability Bias and Overconfidence Bias on investment decisions. Utilizing a literature review approach and VOSviewer analysis, this study explores how these biases affect investor decision-making processes and potential mitigation strategies. The objective is to highlight the significance of understanding and mitigating these biases in achieving more rational investment decisions. The findings underscore the potential negative effects of both biases, leading to overconfident and less rational investment decisions. Awareness of their interplay is crucial, as they reinforce each other's negative effects on investment decision-making. Overcoming these cognitive biases is essential for more effective investment decision-making. This research contributes insights into mitigating biases, aiding in a more balanced and rational approach to investment decision-making.

Importance of Several Components of Annual Report to the Investors: A Study on the Northern Part of Bangladesh

This study examines the perceived usefulness of several components of the annual reports in the decision-making process of investors in making investment decisions. Corporations provided their financial information i.e financial result, financial conditions, and distributions to shareholders etc. to the users through corporate annual report. The main objective of the study is to measure the level importance of the several parts of annual report in providing useful information to the investors. A well-organized questionnaire was used to collect data from the respondents. Descriptive statistics, reliability tests, correlation, regression, etc., were applied to detect the result of the study. The development of the survey indicates that the annual report provides the required information to the investors for their rational investment decision, but some components of the annual report are not helpful at all to the investors. Balance Sheet, Statement of Cash Flow, Notes to the Financial Statements, Auditors Report, Five Years Financial Highlights, and Income statement were providing more valuable information regarding investment. The findings of the study will encourage preparers to provide reliable information as well as encourage users in using yearly report of corporations.

Research on the Anchoring Bias in Stock Investment: Evidence from Chinese Stock Market

Under the influence of factors such as information loss, information asymmetry and personal experience, people can be easily affected by anchoring effect and make wrong decisions. The anchoring effect is a cognitive bias whereby an individual's decisions are influenced by a particular reference point or anchor. This influence can be reflected in many aspects, such as the promotion activities in shopping malls, the choice of insurance products, or the decision to sell or buy in the stock market. In recent years, scholars have gradually found that anchoring effect will influence various decisions made by investors in the stock market to a certain extent, and therefore affect the price of individual stocks in the stock market. Based on previous research experience, the paper summarizes the changes in investors' decisions caused by anchoring deviation in China's stock market and its impact on specific stock prices. Therefore, this study on anchoring bias in the stock market has important implications for investors, traders, and financial analysts. By understanding the ways in which cognitive biases can shape decision-making in the stock market, individuals can take steps to mitigate the effects of these biases and make more rational investment decisions.

Strategic investment management in the digital transformation of the economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan

The aims to analyse this issue in the context of the digitalisation of the socio-eco- nomic space of Kazakhstan's regions. The article examined the challenges and op- portunities of digitalisation for industrial enterprises. It emphasises the importance of making rational investment decisions under conditions of budget constraints. The article proposes a financing scheme for digital transformation projects using quasi- monetary and crypto-financial instruments to attract investment. It is concluded that the impact of cost savings and benefits of digital transformation of enterprises is directly reflected in the level of company capitalisation and its market value, and the financial system corresponding to the new technological cycle is a necessary condi- tion for financial sustainability.

The Behavioural Pattern of Investment in the Financial Market: A Study of the Individual Investors

Most financial theories are based on the assumption that everyone is logical and considers all available information before making decisions, which is not the case in reality. This study aims to analyse the behavioural determinants that drive the investment decision of individual investors in J&K. Non-probability convenience sampling was adopted; through which 392 responses from individual investors were gathered using a self-administered questionnaire. The t-test and ANOVA were used to determine the effect of demographics on investment behaviour (IB), whereas logistic regression was used to determine the impact of IB determinants on investment decision-making. The findings show that the investment decisions of investors in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) are significantly influenced by age and occupation. The results also indicate that cognitive bias, investment goals and saving orientation have a substantial influence on IB but overconfidence, risk perception and decision influencers do not have any significant impact on the investment decision of individual investors in J&K. By gaining awareness of these determinants, investors can make more rational investment decisions, leading to enhanced market efficiency and achieving better outcomes in the financial market.

A STUDY ON INVESTMENT PATTERN OF WORKING WOMEN IN BENGALURU NORTH

Investors are not all the same, they differ in terms of things like expectations of returns, risk appetite, stability of income and so on. Working women significantly contribute to a nations savings by expanding household incomes, stimulating economic growth, and reducing reliance on social welfare. Their financial literacy and investment contribute to long-term stability, bolstering a nations economic resilience. Depending on their risk tolerance, investors invest their savings in all of those avenues. When making an investment decision, behavioural aspects, investor awareness level, risk attitude, investment habits, and common market understanding all play an important role in making a rational investment decision. KEYWORD: financial planning, investment pattern, investment behaviour

Comprehending the Crypto-Curious: How Investors and Inexperienced Potential Investors Perceive and Practice Cryptocurrency Trading

With the increasing popularity of cryptocurrency, many people are interested in cryptocurrency investments, but have so far hesitated. Many others have made investments without adequate preparation. To help interested investors improve their understanding of cryptocurrency and make rational investment decisions, it is important to study their concerns and motivations and to draw upon experienced investors’ experiences and practices. Therefore, we surveyed crypto investors and inexperienced potential investors interested in trading cryptocurrency (n = 395). Our results showed that extreme price volatility is the primary incentive and a substantial obstacle to market participation. Fraud risks, lack of personal funds, insufficient knowledge, and difficulty identifying credible information sources are also common barriers. Our findings highlight the need to build trustworthy exchange platforms and integrate educational features. Based on the reported concerns and experiences, we (1) identify learning components for new investors, and (2) formulate design recommendations for beginner-friendly exchange platforms.

App-Based Investment Platform and Investment Decision Making: A Study of Retail Investor Behavior in Indonesia

The significant growth of retail investors in Indonesia between 2020 and 2022 is partly attributable to technological advancements that have made it easier to access investments through a variety of applications. Previous studies in developing nations like Indonesia, India, and Pakistan suggested that perception biases have influence on retail investor decision making. However, given the capabilities of current investing applications like the display of historical stock/mutual fund price data, retail investors should ideally be able to make more rational investment decisions. This study employs partial least square structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) to examine the role of overconfidence, representativeness, and loss aversion biases that affect rational investment decision making. As an application feature, historical price data serves as the moderating variable of the interaction between them. The result of this study indicates that overconfidence influences rational investment decision making in a positive and significant manner, while representativeness and loss aversion do not have a significant effect. Price historical data as application feature also does not have significant effect in moderating the relationship between them.

Rational or Impulsive? Early Backers’ Investment Behavior in Agri-Food Crowdfunding from 4P–4C Perspectives

Lack of funds and poor agricultural-product sales are the main problems that limit agricultural development, which can be well solved by agri-food crowdfunding. How to attract more backers to invest in the early stage of a project is extremely crucial for agri-food crowdfunding. Using a unique sample comprising 1,136 agri-food crowdfunding campaigns on Crowdfunding Net, among the most influential crowdfunding platforms in China, a model is constructed that includes the five dimensions of people, product, promotion, cost, and convenience. Drawing on the classic 4P and 4C marketing theories, multiple regression analysis is used to examine the mechanism through which a project’s presentation information influences the number of early backers. The results reveal that the factors in the three dimensions of people, product, and convenience positively impact the number of early backers in agri-food crowdfunding. In contrast, the cost-dimension factor is negatively related to the number of early backers. The promotion-dimension factors fail to pass the significance test. Additionally, the number of first-day backers partially moderates the effect of the initiator category, investment threshold, and lottery on the number of early backers. The effects of the trademark registration and number of reward categories on the number of early backers are completely moderated by the number of first-day backers. The evidence also shows that early backers’ rational investment decisions are based on reliable information and lucrative rewards. The research conclusions offer practical enlightenment for initiators, crowd-funding platforms, and regulators in the agri-food crowdfunding industry.

"Predicting the Movement of Stock Prices Using Technical Analysis Indicators": Applied Research in a Sample of the Shares of Iraqi Private Commercial Banks

The research aims to identify technical analysis indicators (simple moving average، relative strength index، estimation index)، and their impact on predicting the movement of stock prices for Iraqi private commercial banks، by examining the methods used in technical analysis and its various models, in general, and its indicators in particular. And the methods of benefiting from them in making the rational investment decision aimed at achieving rewarding returns in the financial markets, and diagnosing the obstacles and difficulties that the participants face in predicting stock prices، and proposing solutions and recommendations to overcome and overcome them from a scientific and practical perspective. As the research community consisted of Iraqi private commercial banks، which numbered (25) banks، while the research sample consisted of (7) banks with a rate of (28%) of the research community، the research used the analytical approach for the financial data in the period between (1/8 /2021-30/4/2022)، as the financial statements (closing prices) of the research sample banks were calculated by means of mathematical equations for technical indicators، and represented them in the form of graphs to clearly determine price trends and (buy and sell) signals. The research came out with a set of recommendations، the most important of which is the need for private Iraqi commercial banks to strengthen the position of technical analysis as a qualitative tool used to improve the investor's decision، and increase the ability to analyze and predict. Purpose، and urging academic authorities to shed more light on technical analysis by encouraging research and studies because of its great importance in the decision to invest in stocks in the future.

An application of Bayesian vector heterogeneous autoregressions to study network interlinkages of the crude oil and gold, stock, and cryptocurrency markets during the COVID-19 outbreak.

We investigate fat tails and network interconnections of crude oil, gold, stock, and cryptocurrency using seven Bayesian vector heterogeneous autoregression fashions. In this paper, we incorporate parameter uncertainty by using Bayesian VAR models for estimation. To make rational investment decisions, we decompose a network of financial assets and commodity prices into various time horizons to obtain essential insight and knowledge. During the short, medium, and long run, this paper differentiates dynamically between network interlinkages between these markets. We found some noteworthy results in our study. In the first place, network interlinkages exhibit remarkable differences over time. Interlinkages between networks are increased in the short term, medium term, and long term due to transient events occurring in markets during the study period. As a result of the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic, the long-term ties within the system are significantly impacted. Additionally, based on net directional linkages, each market's role shifts (from sending to receiving shock and vice versa) before the pre-COVID-19 pandemic course, whereas they remain persistent during COVID-19. Observations of short- and medium-term trends reveal that three markets, namely, crude oil, gold, and stock, receive shocks, which are transmitted to these markets by the cryptocurrency market. In terms of long-horizon measures, the results indicate that the gold and cryptocurrency markets persist as shock transmitters. Our findings are critical since policymakers can also design appropriate policies to reduce the vulnerabilities of such markets and prevent risk spread and instability.