Rational Decision Research Articles

Individual decision styles as predictors for bias susceptibility and bias blind spots in managerial decisions

Purpose This paper aims to managerial decision styles, following the General Decision-Making Style Inventory, as potential predictors of individual bias awareness and bias blind spots, with a focus on the rational decision style. Design/methodology/approach The research is based on a survey of 50°C-1 level managers within Forbes 2000 companies. It explores their decision styles and their assessments of their own and others’ decision behavior. Findings The results show that the awareness of one’s own susceptibility to biases and bias blind spots is highly dependent on an individual’s (self-declared) decision style and type of cognitive bias; decision-makers with a strong tendency toward a rational or spontaneous decision style see themselves as less vulnerable to cognitive biases but also show a much stronger bias blind spot than those with a tendency toward other decision styles. Meanwhile, decision-makers with a strong tendency toward an intuitive decision style tend to recognize their own vulnerability to cognitive biases and even show a negative blind spot, thus seeing themselves as more affected by cognitive biases than others. Originality/value To date, decision styles have not been used as a lens through which to view susceptibility to cognitive biases and bias blind spots in managerial decision-making. As demonstrated in this article, decision styles can serve as predictors of individual awareness and susceptibility to cognitive biases and bias blind spots for managers.

It's Time to Break Up: Dynamics Surrounding Young-Established Firm Alliance Duration

While young firms often benefit from their relationships with established firms, these relationships can be risky. Hence, during their relationship with established firms, young firms must constantly monitor signs of a failing partnership and terminate it before being in a disadvantageous position. However, discontinuing the alliance with an established firm can also be risky, especially if the young firm has limited alternative collaborative opportunities. Our study adopts the young firm's perspective and dynamically weighs the tradeoffs between the risks of continuing and discontinuing its relationship with established firms, thereby deciding on its termination. We first develop an analytical model to understand how the alliance duration (time from alliance formation to termination) between young and established firms is affected by alliance, firm, and industry characteristics. We then test the resulting hypotheses on a sample of 1,111 alliances with licensing deals formed between 159 established pharmaceutical firms and 448 young biotechnology firms during the 1986 to 2000 period, which straddles the technological discontinuity of combinatorial chemistry. Our empirical results provide partial support for the hypotheses derived from the analytical model, informing us of firms’ rational alliance duration decisions as well as their deviations from rationality. In presenting both optimal alliance duration decisions and suboptimal alliance duration practices, our mixed-method approach offers important implications for theory and practice.

Applications of Neuro Deep Learning Models in Predictive Data Analytics for the Movements and Trends of the Indian Stock Market: Financial Data Mining, Nonlinearity, and Quantum Finance

The financial world of today is high-frequency data-driven and characterized by the application and use of information technology for better business development and decision-making. The price movements of stock markets are mainly influenced by micro and macroeconomic variables, legal frameworks, and taxation policies of the respective economies. The crux of the issue lies in exactly forecasting the future stock price movements of individual firms, based on historical prices. Achieving accuracy for forecasting the market trend has become difficult due to the prevalence of stochastic behaviour in the stock market and volatility in the stock prices. This paper analyzes the stochastic movement pattern of the highly volatile thirty individual company stocks (in terms of market capitalization) of BSE-Sensex, using the Neuro Deep Learning method, a model of deep learning approach. The findings of the study would help the investors, to make rational and well-informed investment decisions, and to optimize the returns by investing in the most valuable stocks of listed corporate enterprises.

Τhe rational decision-making and the social responsibility in the optimal functioning of the school

Τhe rational decision-making and the social responsibility in the optimal functioning of the school

Household decisions and the gender gap in job satisfaction

AbstractThis paper offers a novel theoretical explanation for the gender gap in job satisfaction, where women typically report higher job satisfaction than men. We argue that rational family decisions can result in divergent job choices for women and men, leading to increased job satisfaction but lower earnings for women, even when their preferences and expectations align with those of men. We develop this explanation within a theoretical model of family household decision‐making that considers relative earnings disparities within households. We provide empirical evidence supporting our model's predictions utilizing survey and administrative data from Canada.

On the decision-making framework for policing: A proposal for improving police decision-making

This article introduces the Decision-Making Framework for Policing (DMFP), a comprehensive tool designed to enhance the decision-making understanding of police officers. The DMFP considers the principles of heuristic, naturalistic, and rational decision-making along a fluid cognitive continuum to create a framework that addresses the limitations of the existing police National Decision Model (NDM). It achieves this by including 10 proposed typologies of police decision-making including: Routine, Tactical, Operational, Crisis, Investigative, Ethical, Interpersonal, Administrative, Managerial, and Strategic. These are integrated alongside existing and adapted decision-making models which are presented using a mnemonic letter strategy. Although the DMFP is theoretical, and its utility is presently untested in comparison to the existing NDM, it is presented to provide a tool to help improve officers' tacit knowledge, pattern recognition, and experiential learning through provision of easily recallable mnemonic decision-models. Thereby fostering a deeper understanding of cognitive processes and the factors influencing police decisions, potentially increasing consistency in reasoning, reducing decision errors, and enhancing policing outcomes.

Evolving Normative Dynamics: Understanding China's Varied Approaches to Overseas Corporate Social Responsibility in the Belt and Road Initiative Era

China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is nowadays a global development initiative, with which China pursues a new international identity as a “responsible major country.” The inadequate fulfilment of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in BRI partner countries however has tainted the BRI's cooperative “win–win” principle and sparked external legitimacy crises. This study explores how Chinese policymakers respond to overseas CSR challenges in the realms of environmental and societal responsibility. By integrating both constructivist and rationalist elements, we employ three key variables to facilitate cross-case comparisons. Our analysis reveals that China has favoured a parallel overseas CSR governance system that allows for tailored responses to specific contexts. China's nuanced approaches to international CSR standards reflect rational decisions influenced by issue-specific domestic–international normative fit, perceived legitimacy of the relevant international regime, and the significance of each issue to China's global status. This research offers insights into China's contextualised engagement with international CSR norms in the BRI era.

Antibiotic Prescribing Behavior of Physicians in Outpatient Departments in Hospitals in Northwest Ethiopia: Structural Equation Modeling Approach.

Antibiotic resistance, fueled by irrational prescribing, is a global threat associated with health, social, and economic consequences. Understanding antibiotic prescribing behavior and associated factors is important to promote good prescribing practice. This study aimed to determine the factors affecting antibiotic prescribing behaviors of physicians based on the theory of planned behavior in hospitals in northwest Ethiopia in 2022. A cross-sectional study was conducted from September 2022 to October 2022. A total of 185 health professionals were included, and a self-administered questionnaire was used to collect data. A structural equation model based on the modified theory of planned behavior was used to determine factors affecting antibiotic prescribing behavior. The percentages of physicians' estimated prescriptions for patients with upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs) and during weekly outpatient visits were used to predict antibiotic prescribing behavior and finally linked with behavioral constructs. A P value <.05 was considered significant. Physicians estimated that they prescribed antibiotics for 54.8% (9896/18,049) of weekly outpatient encounters, and 178 (96.2%) of the 185 physicians estimated they prescribed antibiotics for patients who presented with symptoms of a URTI. Physicians aged ≤30 years were less likely to prescribe antibiotics (48/100, 48%) for patients who presented with a URTI than physicians older than 30 years (51/100, 51%; P=.004), and general practitioners were less likely to prescribe antibiotics (47/100, 47%) for patients who presented with a URTI than residents (51/100, 51%; P=.03). Similarly, during outpatient visits, physicians ≤30 years old were less likely to prescribe antibiotics (54/100, 54%) than physicians older than 30 years (57/100, 57%; P<.001), male physicians were less likely to prescribe antibiotics (53/100, 53%) than female physicians (64/100, 64%; P=.03), and general practitioners were less likely to prescribe antibiotics (53/100, 53%) than residents (57/100, 57%; P=.02). Physicians with good knowledge were less affected by perceived social pressure (mean 4.4, SD 0.6) than those with poor knowledge (mean 4.0, SD 0.9; P<.001) and felt it was easy to make rational decisions (mean 4.1, SD 1.1) compared with those with poor knowledge (mean 3.8, SD 1; P<.001). However, intentions to reduce and prescribe antibiotics were not affected by attitudes, subjective norms, or perceived behavioral control, and perceived antibiotic prescribing behavior was not related to intentions to reduce or prescribe antibiotics. Antibiotic prescribing behavior was not under the volitional control of physicians. This calls for a systematic approach to change antibiotic prescribing practices in hospital.

Experience Kind of Short Video Attraction Point Research

Encouraging individuals to repeatedly leave their jobs, even when faced with dissatisfaction, work continues to be an essential part of our lives. Consequently, the choice of career has become a trending topic, resonating deeply with many. The blogger pool decided to embark on an adventurous journey as a migrant worker, experiencing a wide range of occupations firsthand. Her primary objective: to bring to light the authentic working realities across various industries. Chi Zao's unique endeavor provides fresh insights and satisfies the curiosity of many, as she immerses herself in different work environments. Her videos meticulously document her industriousness across numerous professions, ranging from the hustle and bustle of office life to the gritty, dusty conditions of construction sites. These genuine experiences allow viewers to truly grasp the challenges and joys associated with various jobs, prompting them to contemplate the deeper meaning of life. Beyond merely showcasing her experiences, her videos also delve into the attitudes towards life itself. By employing case analysis, content criticism, and semiotics, this paper aims to inspire readers with novel perspectives. Analyzing Chi Zao's occupational ventures in depth, we gain a better understanding of the job market's landscape and the complexities involved in making career choices. This unique and insightful viewpoint fosters a new mindset, aiding individuals in making more rational and comprehensive career decisions.

Aspirasi Pemuda di Kabupaten Klaten untuk Pendidikan Tinggi sebagai Kerja Generasi dan Konstruksi Identitas

This article qualitatively explores the production processes of higher education aspirations among students and recent graduates of upper-secondary schools in Klaten Regency. Considering the socio-spatial and temporal context, this study examines the dynamics of aspirations in the ‘desakota’ region during the digital era, an area that has been relatively underresearched. Data generation in this study primarily relies on in-depth interviews with eleven participants. Employing the concepts of identity and generations, this study reveals that higher education aspirations are refinements of individual narratives constructed through interactions with adults and peers in educational, familial, and digital settings. Situated in an in-between area, the production process of aspirations among Klaten’s youth reflects an ambiguity as traditional factors collide with values brought by modernity. I propose that aspirations for higher education in this context are both social and individual projects, encompassing not only future, but also present matters through which youth fashion themselves. This mirrors the critics towards developmental approach that frames educational aspirations predominantly as rational decision aimed at achieving upward social mobility.

The WEIRD Trio: The Cultural Gap between Physicians, Learners, and Patients in Pluralistic Societies.

Physicians are shaped by sociological and philosophical factors that often differ from those of their patients. This is of particular concern in pluralistic societies when navigating ethical disagreements because physicians often misunderstand or even dismiss patient perspectives as being irrational. This paper examines these factors and why many physicians approach ethics as they do while elucidating various patient perspectives and demonstrating how they make sense when considered from a different cultural worldview. Many physicians are trained in contexts that are WEIRD: Western, educated, industrialized, rich, and democratic. These sociological characteristics tend to go hand in hand with the trio of individualism, secularism, and existentialism. These then shape an approach to ethics that focuses on the individual patient, makes no reference to the divine, and focuses on a patient's personal desires. This contrasts significantly with many patients who are collectivistic or religious, and then make rational decisions based on other values. The social fact of pluralism implores physicians to temper confidence in their own cultures while considering others to promote mutual understanding and improved care. This paper concludes with a discussion of how bridges can be built across cultures without sliding into relativism, beginning with recognizing and communicating our shared moral intuitions.

The Impact of Investor Psychology on Investment Decisions

This article aims to explore the significant impact of investor psychology on investment decisions, taking overconfidence and risk tolerance theories as examples to analyze their influence on decision-making. The examination of the investment psychology during the Chinas 2018 A-share crash highlights that investors are susceptible to psychological biases and emotional reactions in the face of market changes. These biases include representativeness bias, where investors may rely too heavily on stereotypes, leading to misjudgments; panic, which can trigger impulsive and irrational selling; overconfidence, causing investors to overestimate their abilities and knowledge; and catastrophic thinking, where investors focus excessively on potential worst-case outcomes. These psychological factors contribute to increased market volatility and can lead to irrational judgments and behaviors among investors. Such behavior is detrimental to the market's stable development, as it can result in mispricing of assets and increased risk of misinvestment. The article emphasizes the critical role of investor psychology in rational decision-making and market efficiency. By recognizing the personal and environmental drivers of these biases, investors can adopt strategies to counteract their influence. This includes improving self-awareness, seeking a variety of perspectives, and employing tools to regulate emotional reactions to market shifts. Policymakers can further contribute by fostering market transparency and educating investors, which can diminish the impact of psychological biases on investment choices. In conclusion, a concerted effort to comprehend and tackle investor psychology is essential for cultivating a more stable and efficient investment landscape.

An Analysis and Comparison Between the Chinese GaoKao System and the A-Level System in the UK: Challenges and Improvements

The majority of students in China, who need to attend Gaokao to be admitted by universities, are not facing the same opportunities. They are strictly required to study specific subjects, no matter students are good and interested at or not. In addition, universities are not admitting students purely according to their talents, instead factors like region, family, which field they want to study in the future do matter. This study will discuss such situation of Chinese Gaokao and make a comparison with the education system in the UK. It also mentions current government policies for extra points that are originally for higher fairness, but they are not fair anymore in current circumstances. This study also gives advices to government and universities on how to make improvement on current education system. The results of this study provides a scientific basis for decision makers to make more rational and effective decisions. It is of great significance to the government, related departments and most importantly, Chinese students.

Research on the Investment Value of BYD Based on SWOT, Financial, and Valuation Methods

Against the backdrop of environmental degradation, green energy transformation is a strategic measure to address climate change and promote green development. The new energy vehicle industry is experiencing an unprecedented period of rapid growth. As a leading player in this sector, BYD's development is virtually representative of the Chinese new energy vehicle industry. SWOT analysis, financial analysis, and valuation analysis are crucial criteria for assessing the development status of a company. Through the analysis of profitability, operational capability, and P/E ratio data, the development status, operational capability, market competitiveness, and growth potential of a company can be directly reflected. The results show vertical integration of supply chain and cost advantage is the main strength of BYD, however it has the weakness of excessive dependence on Chinese government subsidies. From the perspective of financial performance, it has great profitability and its operating capacity situation is good. Moreover, the valuation shows it is worth for investment. This provides decision-makers with information and suggestions on enterprise management, investment, and financing, helping investors and managers make rational decisions.

APPROACHES TO DEFINING THE SOCIOECONOMIC PARADIGM AS A CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

The relevance of the topic is linked to the fact that socialization remains a global trend in economic development. However, in the context of the VUCA and BANI world, the task is not only to recognize changes and adapt to shifting circumstances, but also to make rational decisions, set new goals, and apply new algorithms. In such conditions, the socio-economic paradigm acts as a conceptual model of economic development. It represents a paradigmatic framework for studying socio-economic processes through the application of methodological approaches from disciplines such as economic sociology, economic theory, economic psychology, institutional economics, behavioral economics, and others. Therefore, the task of clarifying its content becomes relevant. The aim of the article is to identify and characterize the conceptual foundations of the socio-economic paradigm and the methodological approaches to its substantiation. The article outlines the content of the socio-economic paradigm as a conceptual model of economic development. It describes its substantive premises, reveals the cause-and-effect relationships between economic and social processes, defines the methodological approaches for studying and comparing socio-economics with other paradigms of economic development, and highlights the need to study the degree of influence of social sciences on the economy and the economy on social processes. It is proven that the economic version of socio-economics assumes that the social sphere, as well as various social processes, not only affect the economy but are also dependent on it, and this dependence requires economic evaluation. Socio-economics represents a scientific field that studies the patterns of modern economic life in the context of moral imperatives and criteria of social justice. The object of socio-economics is defined as economic activity carried out at different territorial and organizational levels, while its subject is economic relations regulated by moral and ethical requirements, attitudes, and prescriptions.

It can be rational to change priors

Abstract According to a widely held norm of rationality, one should not change prior credences without new evidence. An important argument for this norm appeals to accuracy considerations, which say that changing priors does not maximize expected accuracy. This is because accuracy measures are strictly proper, and thus any probabilistically coherent person regards her own priors as uniquely maximizing expected accuracy compared with other priors. This paper attempts to resist the accuracy argument against changing priors. We argue that even if rational epistemic decisions maximize expected accuracy according to strictly proper accuracy measures, it can still be rational to change priors sometimes. The core idea of our argument is that changing priors can be rational if one wants to maximize not just one’s current, short-term accuracy but also future, long-term accuracy. Our argument, if successful, shows that considering long-term accuracy has significant ramifications for the accuracy-first project.

Machine Learning Applications in Stock Price Prediction

With economic fluctuations, investors focus on the stock market where scientific investment strategies become increasingly crucial. This article utilizes linear regression to predict stock price trends, achieving an R value close to 1, indicating high accuracy in the model's predictions. Additionally, logistic regression and random forest classification models were employed to predict stock price movements, revealing a superior performance with the random forest model achieving an AUC value of 0.64. By employing a combination of regression and classification algorithms, this study offers a diverse perspective on stock price prediction, highlighting the importance of scientific forecasting in financial markets. The findings demonstrate that integrating multiple predictive models enhances the accuracy and reliability of stock price predictions, providing investors with precise market information to facilitate rational investment decisions. Furthermore, this research contributes valuable insights for future studies in stock market prediction, promoting continuous innovation and development in the theoretical and methodological aspects of this field. The results underscore the potential of advanced machine learning techniques in financial forecasting, offering a robust framework for understanding market dynamics and improving investment strategies. This study serves as a reference point for both academic research and practical applications, driving forward the evolution of predictive modeling in finance.

Evaluation of Energy Security Submits on Climate Change; Kyoto Protocol and Copenhagen Accord

The rise and incessant increase of Industrialization, modernization and advance technology have attributed to a greater challenge in contemporary international politics. It has brought about a shift in major discuss and study of international relations and politics from the anarchical nature of nation states to climate change. This research work focuses on the hypocrisy in United Nation, a case study of the Kyoto Protocol and Copenhagen submit. It highlights the various submit held to find solution to climate change, the discrepancy and hypocritical politics or decision in the United Nation, solutions agreed from various submit and as well the United nation contribution to climate change. It adopted a qualitative method of research with data’s from written literature and journals from different scholars and UN articles. Realism was adopted as theoretical frame work which shows that sates will go to any extents to defends her interest not minding the global disaster, which has influenced the decisions and as brought about rational and immoral decisions from some advance or rich nations. It concludes that, the hypocritical nature of some states has posed more threats to the issues at hand, due to the use of fossil fuels, every wealthy nation today became wealthy, the world's largest development agencies refuse to support the use of fossil fuels, which poor countries may employ to escape poverty at the insistence of wealthier nations not minding the fact that they contribute more to global emission than the poor nations. The study therefore recommends that, a legal frame work need to be set, nation states need to forget political and ideological differences and rather corporate to find solution to the gory situation. Lastly, advance countries who contributed more to global emission should be held accountable and should as well finance poor countries to implement the policies.

Bounded Rational Decision Networks with Belief Propagation.

Complex information processing systems that are capable of a wide variety of tasks, such as the human brain, are composed of specialized units that collaborate and communicate with each other. An important property of such information processing networks is locality: there is no single global unit controlling the modules, but information is exchanged locally. Here, we consider a decision-theoretic approach to study networks of bounded rational decision makers that are allowed to specialize and communicate with each other. In contrast to previous work that has focused on feedforward communication between decision-making agents, we consider cyclical information processing paths allowing for back-and-forth communication. We adapt message-passing algorithms to suit this purpose, essentially allowing for local information flow between units and thus enabling circular dependency structures. We provide examples that show how repeated communication can increase performance given that each unit's information processing capability is limited and that decision-making systems with too few or too many connections and feedback loops achieve suboptimal utility.

Behavioral Biases and their Influence on Financial Decisions: An Analysis of Social Entrepreneurship in a Medium-Sized City

In recent years, entrepreneurship has been an alternative economic livelihood that independently seeks to generate employment and in turn the economic growth of countries. Social entrepreneurship is a topic of great importance in recent research, however, there is still not enough empirical evidence to analyze the rationality of decision making. Given the social factor they pursue, it is possible that they may be affected by behavioral distortions that influence their rationality, especially in three financial aspects: investment, savings and indebtedness. Therefore, the objective of this work is to determine the existing influence between behavioral biases and financial decision making of social enterprises in the canton of Cuenca. The study is a descriptive-correlational cross-sectional approach, using structural equations from Partial Least Squares (PLS). The sample obtained is 162 social enterprises. The results show a significant positive influence of overconfidence, procrastination, status quo, and negative influence of over optimism on investment decisions. Also, procrastination and status quo directly influence savings decisions, but the gambler's fallacy indirectly. On the other hand, the risk aversion, overconfidence, over optimism and status quo biases were significantly influenced on borrowing decisions