Rate Of Thaw Research Articles

Rate of permafrost thaw and associated plant community dynamics in peatlands of northwestern Canada

Abstract The most rapid climate warming is occurring in northern, permafrost environments. Peatlands of these regions are particularly sensitive to climate warming, with the high ground ice content of peat plateaux resulting in the formation of collapse scars as ground temperatures warm. To quantify the rates of permafrost thaw and associated vegetation changes, we sampled the plant and lichen communities in transects spanning actively thawing collapse scar margins at sites from mid‐Boreal to Low Subarctic conditions, within Canada's Northwest Territories. Seventeen transects were sampled in 2007/08 and 14 of these were resampled 10 years later. The rate of lateral permafrost thaw of collapse scar margins ranged from −6 to 63 cm year−1 (mean: 22.0 cm ± 4.7 cm year−1 (SE)); variability was high and no trends with respect to latitude or temperature gradients were detected. Plant communities displayed a clear gradient from lichen‐ and ericaceous shrub‐dominated peat plateaux, to collapse scars primarily characterized by Sphagnum mosses and graminoids. Both space‐for‐time (distance from collapsing margin) and direct measurement of 10‐year changes showed a successional sequence following permafrost thaw; floating mat communities characterized by Sphagnum riparium or S. balticum proceeded to lawn communities of S. angustifolium and, finally, to hummock communities with Mylia anomala or S. fuscum. This successional sequence was associated with increased water table depth and lower soil water content in plant communities farther from the actively collapsing front, illustrating that peat growth above the water table was driving plant community successional changes. The most rapid plant community succession occurred in recently thawed environments as peat growth propelled the ground surface above the water table while the slowest succession occurred in the collapse scar hummock communities located farthest from the actively collapsing peat plateau margin. Synthesis. In just 10 years, significant vegetation change was detected, in association with both permafrost thaw and subsequent plant community succession. These changes occurred across a broad climatic and latitudinal gradient, from mid‐Boreal to Low Subarctic and have implications for wildlife, global C cycle and indigenous communities who depend on this landscape for harvesting, spiritual and cultural practices.

Stratospheric Aerosol Injection to Stabilize Northern Hemisphere Terrestrial Permafrost Under the ARISE‐SAI‐1.5 Scenario

AbstractPermafrost, or ground that is continuously frozen for at least 2 years, contains vast stores of organic soil carbon. Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) may prevent tipping points that lead to widespread permafrost thaw and carbon release by cooling surface and soil temperatures, but it is unclear if or when permafrost could stabilize after SAI deployment. Here we use output from the ARISE‐SAI‐1.5 simulations to assess how permafrost may respond to a specific SAI strategy that maintains global mean surface temperature to 1.5°C above pre‐industrial levels. Permafrost responses under SAI are compared to responses under the control SSP2‐4.5 emissions scenario. We show that the rate of boreal permafrost thaw slows under SAI but does not fully stop, likely due to deep permafrost thaw processes that are resistant to surface temperatures changes. In both the ARISE‐SAI‐1.5 and SSP2‐4.5 simulations, permafrost completely thaws and disappears along the southern edge of the permafrost area by 2069, indicating that some permafrost loss may be inevitable even if SAI successfully stabilizes global mean surface temperatures. SAI does prevent a potential local tipping point (talik formation) in roughly 1 million km2 of permafrost. Most of the talik prevention occurs in permafrost peatlands. Thus, a more aggressive SAI strategy than that of ARISE‐SAI‐1.5 is likely required to prevent all future projected permafrost thaw.

Canopy cover and microtopography control precipitation-enhanced thaw of ecosystem-protected permafrost

Northern high-latitudes are projected to get warmer and wetter, which will affect rates of permafrost thaw and mechanisms by which thaw occurs. To better understand the impact of rain, as well as other factors such as snow depth, canopy cover, and microtopography, we instrumented a degrading permafrost plateau in south-central Alaska with high-resolution soil temperature sensors. The site contains ecosystem-protected permafrost, which persists in unfavorable climates due to favorable ecologic conditions. Our study (2020–2022) captured three of the snowiest years and three of the four wettest years since the site was first studied in 2015. Average thaw rates along an across-site transect increased nine-fold from 6 ± 5 cm yr−1 (2015–2020) to 56 ± 12 cm yr−1 (2020–2022). This thaw was not uniform. Hummock locations, residing on topographic high points with relatively dense canopy, experienced only 8 ± 9 cm yr−1 of thaw, on average. Hollows, topographic low points with low canopy cover, and transition locations, which had canopy cover and elevation between hummocks and hollows, thawed 44 ± 6 cm yr−1 and 39 ± 13 cm yr−1, respectively. Mechanisms of thaw differed between these locations. Hollows had high warm-season soil moisture, which increased thermal conductivity, and deep cold-season snow coverage, which insulated soil. Transition locations thawed primarily due to thermal energy transported through subsurface taliks during individual rain events. Most increases in depth to permafrost occurred below the ∼45 cm thickness seasonally frozen layer, and therefore, expanded existing site taliks. Results highlight the importance of canopy cover and microtopography in controlling soil thermal inputs, the ability of subsurface runoff from individual rain events to trigger warming and thaw, and the acceleration of thaw caused by consecutive wet and snowy years. As northern high-latitudes become warmer and wetter, and weather events become more extreme, the importance of these controls on soil warming and thaw is likely to increase.

Investigating the thermal state of permafrost with Bayesian inverse modeling of heat transfer

Abstract. Long-term measurements of permafrost temperatures do not provide a complete picture of the Arctic subsurface thermal regime. Regions with warmer permafrost often show little to no long-term change in ground temperature due to the uptake and release of latent heat during freezing and thawing. Thus, regions where the least warming is observed may also be the most vulnerable to permafrost degradation. Since direct measurements of ice and liquid water contents in the permafrost layer are not widely available, thermal modeling of the subsurface plays a crucial role in understanding how permafrost responds to changes in the local energy balance. In this work, we first analyze trends in observed air and permafrost temperatures at four sites within the continuous permafrost zone, where we find substantial variation in the apparent relationship between long-term changes in permafrost temperatures (0.02–0.16 K yr−1) and air temperature (0.09–0.11 K yr−1). We then apply recently developed Bayesian inversion methods to link observed changes in borehole temperatures to unobserved changes in latent heat and active layer thickness using a transient model of heat conduction with phase change. Our results suggest that the degree to which recent warming trends correlate with permafrost thaw depends strongly on both soil freezing characteristics and historical climatology. At the warmest site, a 9 m borehole near Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, modeled active layer thickness increases by an average of 13 ± 1 cm K−1 rise in mean annual ground temperature. In stark contrast, modeled rates of thaw at one of the colder sites, a borehole on Samoylov Island in the Lena River delta, appear far less sensitive to temperature change, with a negligible effect of 1 ± 1 cm K−1. Although our study is limited to just four sites, the results urge caution in the interpretation and comparison of warming trends in Arctic boreholes, indicating significant uncertainty in their implications for the current and future thermal state of permafrost.

Widespread Permafrost Degradation and Thaw Subsidence in Northwest Canada

AbstractLong‐term (1991–2018) thaw tube measurements highlight widespread permafrost thaw and ground surface (GS) subsidence over a large portion of northwest Canada. Statistically significant positive trends in thaw penetration (TP), measured with respect to a fixed datum, were observed at 18 of 28 sites with data that span three decades at a median rate of 0.8 cm a−1. This rate implies thawing of about 22 cm of permafrost over the study period. Similarly significant trends in GS subsidence occurred at 21 of 28 sites, at a median rate of 0.4 cm a−1. In contrast with TP and GS elevation, long‐term trends in active layer thickness (ALT) were less consistent, with 10 of 28 sites having statistically significant trends indicating increasing ALT (median rate: 0.6 cm a−1), and 7 sites having trends indicating decrease in ALT (median: 0.3 cm a−1). The ALT measurements underestimated the thawing of ice‐rich permafrost due to GS subsidence. Sites with high rates of thaw had relatively warm permafrost, deep snow cover, and poor drainage. Masking of ice‐rich permafrost degradation by ALT measurements has important implications for modeling permafrost thaw and climate change reporting. Accurate simulation of ice‐rich permafrost thaw is conceivable for sites where conditions are well‐defined. However, the prediction of subsidence and TP at regional or broader scales is only possible in general terms due to variation in surface conditions and ground ice content. Trends in TP and GS subsidence more accurately characterize ice‐rich permafrost degradation than trends in ALT.

Subsurface Porewater Flow Accelerates Talik Development Under the Alaska Highway, Yukon: A Prelude to Road Collapse and Final Permafrost Thaw?

AbstractThe presence of taliks (perennially unfrozen zones in permafrost areas) adversely affects the thermal stability of infrastructure in cold regions, including roads. The role of heat advection on talik development and feedback on permafrost degradation has not been quantified methodically in this context. We incorporate a surface energy balance model into a coupled groundwater flow and energy transport numerical model (SUTRA‐ice). The model, calibrated with long‐term observations (1997–2018 on the Alaska Highway), is used to investigate and quantify the role of heat advection on talik initiation and development under a road embankment. Over the 25‐year simulation period, the new model is driven by reconstructed meteorological data and has a good agreement with near surface soil temperatures. The model successfully reproduces the increasing depth to the permafrost table (mean absolute error <0.2 m), and talik development. The results demonstrate that heat advection provides an additional energy source that expedites the rate of permafrost thaw and roughly doubles the rate of permafrost table deepening, compared to purely conductive thawing. Talik initially formed and grew over time under the combined effect of water flow, snow insulation, road construction and climate warming. Talik formation creates a new thermal state under the road embankment, resulting in acceleration of underlying permafrost degradation, due to the positive feedback of heat accumulation created by trapped unfrozen water. In a changing climate, mobile water flow will play a more important role in permafrost thaw and talik development under road embankments, and is likely to significantly increase maintenance costs and reduce the long‐term stability of the infrastructure.

Causes and Characteristics of Electrical Resistivity Variability in Shallow (<4 m) Soils in Taylor Valley, East Antarctica

AbstractAirborne electromagnetic surveys collected in December 2011 and November 2018 and three soil sampling transects were used to analyze the spatial heterogeneity of shallow (<4 m) soil properties in lower Taylor Valley (TV), East Antarctica. Soil resistivities from 2011 to 2018 ranged from ∼33 Ωm to ∼3,500 Ωm with 200 Ωm assigned as an upper boundary for brine‐saturated sediments. Elevations below ∼50 m above sea level (masl) typically exhibit the lowest resistivities with resistivity increasing at high elevations on steeper slopes. Soil water content was empirically estimated from electrical resistivities using Archie's Law and range from ∼<1% to ∼68% by volume. An increase in silt‐ and clay‐sized particles at low elevations increases soil porosity but decreases hydraulic conductivity, promoting greater residence times of soil water at low elevations near Lake Fryxell. Soil resistivity variability between 2011 and 2018 shows soils at different stages of soil freeze‐thaw cycles, which are caused predominantly by solar warming of soils as opposed to air temperature. This study furthers the understanding of the hydrogeologic structure of the shallow subsurface in TV and identifies locations of soils that are potentially prone to greater rates of thaw and resulting ecosystem homogenization of soil properties from projected increases in hydrological connectivity across the region over the coming decades.

Mapping Surface Organic Soil Properties in Arctic Tundra Using C-Band SAR Data

Surface soil organic carbon (SOC) content is among the first-order controls on the rate and extent of Arctic permafrost thaw. There is a large discrepancy in current SOC estimates in Arctic tundra, where sparse measurements are unable to capture SOC complexity over the vast tundra region. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data are sensitive to surface vegetation, roughness, and moisture conditions, and may provide useful information on surface SOC properties. Here, we investigated the potential of multitemporal Sentinel-1 C-band SAR data for regional SOC mapping in the Arctic tundra through principal component analysis (PCA). Multiple <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">in situ</i> SOC datasets in the Alaska North Slope were assembled to generate a consistent surface (0–10 cm) SOC and bulk density dataset ( <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">n</i> = 97). The radar VV backscatter shows a strong correlation with surface SOC, but the correlation varies greatly with surface snow, moisture, and freeze/thaw conditions. However, the first principal component (PC1) of radar backscatter time series from different years shows spatial consistency representing dominant and persistent surface backscatter behavior. The PC1 also shows a strong linear correlation with surface SOC concentration ( <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">R</i> = 0.65, <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">p</i> <0.01), and an exponential relationship with bulk density ( <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">R</i> = −0.65, <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">p</i> <0.01). The resulting predicted SOC maps show much lower soil bulk density and higher SOC concentration in the southern shrub tundra area than in the northern coastal region, consistent with <italic xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">in situ</i> data. Our analysis shows that it is possible to separate the effects of different factors on the radar backscatter response using PCA and multitemporal SAR data, which may lead to more effective satellite-based methods for Arctic SOC mapping.

Sensitivity of Erosion‐Rate in Permafrost Landscapes to Changing Climatic and Environmental Conditions Based on Lake Sediments From Northwestern Alaska

AbstractErosion of landscapes underlaid by permafrost can transform sediment and nutrient fluxes, surface and subsurface hydrology, soil properties, and rates of permafrost thaw, thus changing ecosystems and carbon emissions in high latitude regions with potential implications for global climate. However, future rates of erosion and sediment transport are difficult to predict as they depend on complex interactions between climatic and environmental parameters such as temperature, precipitation, permafrost, vegetation, wildfires, and hydrology. Thus, despite the potential influence of erosion on the future of the Arctic and global systems, the relations between erosion‐rate and these parameters, as well as their relative importance, remain largely unquantified. Here we quantify these relations based on a sedimentary record from Burial Lake, Alaska, one of the richest datasets of Arctic lake deposits. We apply a set of bi‐ and multi‐variate techniques to explore the association between the flux of terrigenous sediments into the lake (a proxy for erosion‐rate) and a variety of biogeochemical sedimentary proxies for paleoclimatic and environmental conditions over the past 25 cal ka BP. Our results show that erosion‐rate is most strongly associated with temperature and vegetation proxies, and that erosion‐rate decreases with increased temperature, pollen‐counts, and abundance of pollen from shrubs and trees. Other proxies, such as those associated with fire frequency, aeolian dust supply, mass wasting and hydrologic conditions, play a secondary role. The marginal effects of the sedimentary‐proxies on erosion‐rate are often threshold dependent, highlighting the potential for strong non‐linear changes in erosion in response to future changes in Arctic conditions.

Imminent loss of climate space for permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia

Human-induced climate warming by 2100 is expected to thaw large expanses of northern permafrost peatlands. However, the spatio-temporal dynamics of permafrost peatland thaw remain uncertain due to complex permafrost–climate interactions, the insulating properties of peat soils and variation in model projections of future climate. Here we show that permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia will soon surpass a climatic tipping point under scenarios of moderate-to-high warming (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). The total peatland area affected under these scenarios contains 37.0–39.5 Gt carbon (equivalent to twice the amount of carbon stored in European forests). Our bioclimatic models indicate that all of Fennoscandia will become climatically unsuitable for peatland permafrost by 2040. Strong action to reduce emissions (SSP1-2.6) by the 2090s could retain suitable climates for permafrost peatlands storing 13.9 Gt carbon in northernmost Western Siberia, indicating that socio-economic policies will determine the rate and extent of permafrost peatland thaw. Permafrost peatlands are thawing, yet the timing and spatial dynamics of thaw are not well constrained. Under moderate and high warming scenarios, permafrost peatlands in Europe and Western Siberia will cross a tipping point where the climate becomes unsuitable, putting their carbon stores at risk.

Standardized monitoring of permafrost thaw: a user-friendly, multiparameter protocol

Climate change is destabilizing permafrost landscapes, affecting infrastructure, ecosystems, and human livelihoods. The rate of permafrost thaw is controlled by surface and subsurface properties and processes, all of which are potentially linked with each other. However, no standardized protocol exists for measuring permafrost thaw and related processes and properties in a linked manner. The permafrost thaw action group of the Terrestrial Multidisciplinary distributed Observatories for the Study of the Arctic Connections (T-MOSAiC) project has developed a protocol, for use by non-specialist scientists and technicians, citizen scientists, and indigenous groups, to collect standardized metadata and data on permafrost thaw. The protocol introduced here addresses the need to jointly measure permafrost thaw and the associated surface and subsurface environmental conditions. The parameters measured along transects include: snow depth, thaw depth, vegetation height, soil texture, and water level. The metadata collection includes data on timing of data collection, geographical coordinates, land surface characteristics (vegetation, ground surface, water conditions), as well as photographs. Our hope is that this openly available dataset will also be highly valuable for validation and parameterization of numerical and conceptual models, and thus to the broad community represented by the T-MOSAiC project.

Permafrost thaw in boreal peatlands is rapidly altering forest community composition

Abstract Boreal peatlands are frequently underlain by permafrost, which is thawing rapidly. A common ecological response to thaw is the conversion of raised forested plateaus to treeless wetlands, but unexplained spatial variation in responses, combined with a lack of stand‐level data, make it difficult to predict future trajectories of boreal forest composition and structure. We sought to characterize patterns and identify drivers of forest structure, composition, mortality and recruitment in a boreal peatland experiencing permafrost thaw. To do this, we established a large (10 ha) permanent forest plot (completed in 2014), located in the Northwest Territories, Canada, that includes 40,584 mapped and measured trees. In 2018, we conducted a comprehensive mortality and recruitment recensus. We also measured frost table depth, soil moisture, soil humification and organic layer thickness within the plot between 2012 and 2018, and used habitat association tests to link these variables to forest characteristics and dynamics. Forest composition and structure varied markedly throughout the plot and were strongly governed by patterns in permafrost presence and organic layer thickness. Overall, there was a net loss of trees from the plot at a rate of 0.7% year−1. Mortality of black spruce, the dominant tree species, was more than double that of recruitment and was strongly associated with permafrost thaw. In contrast, recruitment of larch was over four times greater than mortality, and occurred primarily in low‐lying, permafrost‐free wetlands with mineral soil near the surface. Synthesis. The trends in tree demography and underlying drivers suggest that spruce‐dominated permafrost plateaus will be converted into larch‐dominated wetlands as permafrost thaw progresses in boreal peatlands, particularly in areas where mineral soil is near the surface. In the longer term, thaw could increase the hydrologic connectivity of the landscape, resulting in widespread drainage and re‐vegetation by spruce, but we did not find evidence that this is occurring yet. Given the increasing rates of permafrost thaw, and positive feedbacks between thaw and forest change, we predict that larch abundance will continue to increase in boreal peatlands over the coming decades, leading to shifts in ecosystem function, wildlife habitat, albedo and snow dynamics.

Experimental research and development of drilling fluid formulations to reduce the rate of the permafrost thawing

The paper is devoted to complex experimental studies of methods to reduce the rate of permafrost thaw during the construction of oil and gas wells in the fields of the Krasnoyarsk territory. Laboratory physical and chemical studies on the development of drilling fluid formulations for drilling in permafrost conditions were carried out. The most significant results were obtained for clay-polymer solutions with the addition of ethylene glycol and propylene glycol. It was shown that it is possible to control the thermal, hydration and filtration characteristics of drilling fluids by introducing ethylene glycol and propylene glycol without deterioration of their rheological properties.

Recent advances in the study of Arctic submarine permafrost

AbstractSubmarine permafrost is perennially cryotic earth material that lies offshore. Most submarine permafrost is relict terrestrial permafrost beneath the Arctic shelf seas, was inundated after the last glaciation, and has been warming and thawing ever since. As a reservoir and confining layer for gas hydrates, it has the potential to release greenhouse gasses and impact coastal infrastructure, but its distribution and rate of thaw are poorly constrained by observational data. Lengthening summers, reduced sea ice extent and increased solar heating will increase water temperatures and thaw rates. Observations of gas release from the East Siberian shelf and high methane concentrations in the water column and air above it have been attributed to flowpaths created in thawing permafrost. In this context, it is important to understand the distribution and state of submarine permafrost and how they are changing. We assemble recent and historical drilling data on regional submarine permafrost degradation rates and review recent studies that use modelling, geophysical mapping and geomorphology to characterize submarine permafrost. Implications for submarine permafrost thawing are discussed within the context of methane cycling in the Arctic Ocean and global climate change.

Fluctuation analysis in the dynamic characteristics of continental glacier based on Full-Stokes model

Ice thickness has a great influence on glacial movement and ablation. Over the course of the change in thickness, area and external climate, the dynamic process of how glaciers change and whether a glacier’s changes in melting tend to be stable or irregular is a problem that needs to be studied in depth. In our study, the changes in the dynamic process of the No. 8 Glacier in Hei Valley (H8) under the conditions of different thicknesses in 1969 and 2009 were simulated based on the Full-Stokes code Elmer/Ice (http://www.csc.fi/elmer/). The results were as follows: (1) The thickness reduction in glaciers would lead to a decrease in ice surface tension and basal pressure and friction at the bottom, and the resulting extensional and compressional flow played an important role in the variations in glacial velocity. (2) The force at the bottom of the glacier was key to maintaining the overall stress balance, and the glaciers that often melted and collapsed in bedrock were more easily destroyed by the overall force balance and increased change rate of glacial thaw. (3) Temperature changes at different altitudes affected the ice viscous force. The closer the ice surface temperature was to the melting point, the greater the influence of temperature changes on the ice viscous force and ice surface velocity. Finally, we used the RCP 4.8 and 8.5 climate models to simulate the changes in H8 over the next 40 years. The results showed that with some decreases in ice surface compression and tension, the gravity component changes caused by local topography begin to control the ice flow movement on the surface of glacier, and melting of the glacial surface will appear as an irregular change. The simulation results further confirmed that the fluctuation in glacial dynamic characteristics could be attributed to the change in the gravity component caused by ablation.

Heat transfer within frozen slopes in subarctic Yukon, Canada

The dominant mechanism of heat transfer during ground thaw is typically assumed to be vertical conduction. However, the addition of lateral subsurface water flow introduces the potential for the forced convection of energy, having an influence on ground temperatures and thaw rates. Field observations of snowmelt run-off and rates of ground thaw for two slopes within the Wolf Creek basin, Yukon, Canada, highlighted different rates of ground thaw with slope position. Ground temperatures were numerically simulated to evaluate the relative influence of conduction and convection on the thawing of these slopes; each slope comprised different soils and had a different slope aspect. Both slopes were composed of an organic layer overlying a mineral soil. Lateral water flow above the frozen layer occurred within both slopes as a result of a perched saturated zone above the organic–mineral interface. The numerical models reveal that lateral diversion within a surficial, high-hydraulic conductivity layer, such as an organic layer, can initiate convective heat transfer. However, the observed differential thaw was determined to be a result of conduction and variations in the initial ice content and snow cover rather than lateral convection of heat.

Half a century of discontinuous permafrost persistence and degradation in western Canada

AbstractLong‐term field studies of permafrost change are needed to validate predictive models but few are possible because of a paucity of direct observations prior to the late 1970s. To help fill this knowledge gap, we resurveyed a transect of 68 sites, originally investigated in 1962, to evaluate change in the isolated patches and sporadic discontinuous permafrost zones between Keg River, Alberta (57.8°N) and Hay River, Northwest Territories (60.8°N). The goal was to establish the degree of permafrost degradation due to approximately 2°C of regional climate warming over the intervening 55 years, compounded at some sites by forest fire. By 2017–2018, permafrost had degraded at 36% of the 44 sites which exhibited it in 1962, but had persisted at a minimum of 50% with a further 14% potentially retaining permafrost. This is much less degradation than reported for a 1988–1989 survey of the same transect. Permafrost was maintained under thicker organic layers (86% &gt; 40 cm) and at the majority of sites with fine‐grained substrates, while degradation occurred preferentially at sites with coarse soils and thinner organic layers. Forest fire did not enhance the degree of permafrost loss, but greater frost table depths were observed at some burned locations. This study demonstrates that while the trajectory of change is towards permafrost loss, thin permafrost in the discontinuous zone can be persistent, even when disturbed. It also underlines the importance of considering the range of landscape types when projecting the rate of future permafrost thaw.

Towards determining spatial methane distribution on Arctic permafrost bluffs with an unmanned aerial system

Arctic permafrost stores vast amounts of methane (CH4) in subsurface reservoirs. Thawing permafrost creates areas for this potent greenhouse gas to be released to the atmosphere. Identifying ‘hot spots’ of methane flux on a local scale has been limited by the spatial scales of traditional ground-based or satellite-based methane-sampling methods. Here we present a reliable and an easily replicable design using only off-the-shelf, cost-effective methane sensor components and an Unmanned Aerial System (UAS). Our results demonstrate the high efficiency of the design and the advantages of this methodology for environmental methane studies that are subjected to the high spatial variability of methane levels. On Barter Island, NE Alaska, we noted spikes in CH4 concentrations coincident with topographic features or anomalies. Such spikes may be attributed to enhanced land/air transfer and may reveal zones of high methane production and/or minimal oxidation in areas of thermoerosional gullies along thawing coastal zones. Thermoerosional gullies represent hotspots that release significantly higher levels of methane than the surrounding areas, thus suggesting that point sampling is inadequate in characterizing methane releases and that increasing rates of permafrost thaw may result in increasing point sources of high CH4 emissions.

Permafrost thaw induced drying of wetlands at Scotty Creek, NWT, Canada

Northwestern Canada is one of the most rapidly warming regions on Earth. The scale and rapidity of recently observed warming-induced changes throughout this region indicate that it is particularly sensitive to climate warming and capable of rapid responses to perturbations. Unprecedented rates of permafrost thaw in the zone of discontinuous permafrost are transforming forests to wetlands, and changing the distribution and routing of water over the landscape as evidenced by recent increases in basin discharge. However, the impact of increasing basin discharge on basin water storage is not well understood. Water levels on a permafrost plateau, channel fen, and isolated and connected bogs were monitored from 2003–2017 in the Scotty Creek watershed, Northwest Territories. The water level in the channel fen did not significantly change over the period of study, sustained by inputs from the increasingly-connected network of bogs as permafrost barriers thawed. Bogs with varying levels of connection to the drainage network released from storage between 40 and 53 mm of water over the study period. The water level in the monitored isolated bog did not significantly change over this period. Estimates of moisture contributions derived directly from vertical permafrost thaw and from the lateral expansion of contributing areas account for 90% of the observed cumulative increase of 1043 mm in basin runoff between 1998–2012, leaving 109 mm of this increase unaccounted for. Increasing connectivity to the drainage network and transient wetland drainage at the landscape scale resulted from permafrost thaw-induced talik development. The similarity between the magnitude of wetland drainage and that of enhanced runoff suggests that increased connectivity of wetlands to the drainage network may contribute to increasing runoff from the Scotty Creek watershed. Permafrost thaw-induced land cover transition was found to have both short and long-term effects on runoff generation.

Methane Efflux Measured by Eddy Covariance in Alaskan Upland Tundra Undergoing Permafrost Degradation

AbstractGreenhouse gas emissions from thawing permafrost in arctic ecosystems may amplify global warming, yet estimates of the rate of carbon release, and the proportion of carbon released as methane (CH4) or carbon dioxide (CO2), have a high degree of uncertainty. There are many areas where no measurements exist, and few year‐round or long‐term records. Existing year‐round eddy covariance measurements of arctic CH4fluxes suggest that nongrowing season emissions make up a significant proportion of tundra systems emissions on an annual basis. Here we present continuous CH4flux measurements made at Eight Mile Lake, an upland tundra ecosystem undergoing permafrost degradation in Interior Alaska. We found net CH4emissions throughout the year (1.2 ∓ 0.011 g C‐CH4m2/yr) that made up 61% of total radiative forcing from annual C emissions (CO2and CH4; 32.3 g C m2/yr) when taking into account the greenhouse warming potential of CH4relative to CO2. Nongrowing season emissions accounted for 50% of the annual CH4budget, characterized by large pulse emissions. These were related to abrupt increases in air and shallow soil temperatures rather than consistent emissions during the zero curtain—a period of the fall/early winter season when subsurface soil temperatures remain near the 0 °C freezing point. Weekly growing season CH4emissions in 2016 and 2017 were significantly related with thaw depth, and the magnitude of CH4emissions between these seasons was proportional to the rate of active layer thaw throughout the season.