GDP Growth Rate Research Articles

Environmental Protection for Bureaucratic Promotion: Water Quality Performance Review of Provincial Governors in China

We show including quantitative environmental targets for bureaucratic promotion incentivizes government officials to enforce environmental regulation but at significant economic costs. Taking advantage of the gradual expansion of China’s water quality performance review (WQPR) over time and space, we find that WQPR significantly reduced ambient concentrations of criteria pollutants, digestive cancer mortality, and GDP growth rate. WQPR’s effects are more pronounced along provincial borders, which are targeted by WQPR, and when provincial governors have more promotion potential. An important mechanism is investment in wastewater treatment facilities. There is evidence that WQPR passed the benefit-cost test, especially in rural areas.

Contemporary Demographic and Economic Processes in Russia: A Statistical Analysis of Their Interaction

The article analyses the relationships between economic and demographic processes in contemporary Russia.Using index analysis, the author concluded that, in 2006–2018, a decline in the working-age population would have reduced, ceteris paribus, almost one-third of the GDP growth rate if the negative impact of this factor had not been fully compensated by an increase in the employment rate of the working-age population during this period. Growth of fertility in 2007–2015 would have led, if the influence of the situation on the labor market was eliminated, to a decrease in the number of employees by 1.2% (caused by the decline in female labor force participation rate), while fertility decrease after 2015 would have led to an increase in this number by 0.4%. Based on this estimation, it was concluded that the changes in fertility can, in the short term, have any significant impact on employment only in those types of economic activity in which the women of reproductive age make up the overwhelming majority of the employees.It has been suggested that the accumulation of socio-psychological prerequisites for a decline in fertility has led the demographic system, both in Western countries and in Russia, into a state of unstable equilibrium. The global financial crises of 2008–2009 and the 2014–2015 financial crisis in Russia upset this equilibrium and launched a mechanism for fertility decline. It is argued that in the period under consideration, the Russian economy adapted to the turbulence of the external environment more successfully than the demographic sphere

Macroeconomics Factors Affecting Net Exports of Oil Palm Industry in Malaysia

This quantitative study investigates the impact of oil palm production, oil palm pricing, inflation, and GDP growth rate on the net exports of Malaysia's oil palm industry. This research is aimed at analyzing how the net export of oil palm relates to certain macroeconomic variables. This study has employed multiple regression analysis through Ordinary Least Squares for 26 years of time series data from 1996 to 2020 in Malaysia. The findings from this study improve our understanding of the major factors contributing to net exports in the oil palm industry. Palm oil production, price, as well as GDP growth, drive net export of palm oil in Malaysia found during this research. An increase in production leads to the reduced amount of palm oil exported, all other things remaining constant. Conversely, inflation and GDP growth are major drivers behind the increased net export of palm oil.

The Impact of Government Expenditure on Economic Growth in Malaysia

This study experimentally investigates the relationship between economic growth and government spending in Malaysia from 1990 to 2022 using time series data. The study analyzes the impact of total government spending on economic growth, covering housing, healthcare, social services, military, and education while identifying which sector has the most effect on economic growth. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method is employed to evaluate the effects of these expenditures. The findings demonstrate that, in the short run, all variables significantly affect economic growth, hence refuting the null hypothesis. However, only trade openness and labor spending positively impact long-term economic growth. Research indicates that housing and education expenditures are the primary long-term drivers of economic growth in Malaysia. The data suggest that the Malaysian economy contradicts the Keynesian theory, as less government spending appears to improve the real GDP growth rate. The inverse relationship between government spending and economic growth indicates that government expenditure may not be the primary catalyst for economic growth, hence supporting Wagner’s law. These findings provide policymakers with essential insights for optimizing government spending to improve economic development results.

Impact on Local Economy from Zhoushan National New Area

To empirically study the policy impact of a National New Area on the local economy, this paper evaluates the effect of the Zhoushan Archipelago New Area on local GDP growth rate and economic efficiency. Firstly, the economic efficiency of 20 prefectural-level cities in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui provinces is estimated by data envelopment analysis with input and output data from 1995 to 2015. In selecting some cities except Zhoushan as a control group, we construct some counterfactuals of Zhoushan by a panel data approach. The difference between the actual and counterfactual values for the GDP growth rate and economic efficiency of Zhoushan is calculated and compared to conclude the treatment effect of the National New Area. The research shows that in the first four years, the policy of the National New Area promoted Zhoushan's economic quality by raising its efficiency, but relatively reduced its economic quantity by negatively affecting the local GDP growth rate. Then the policy influence on Zhoushan’s GDP growth rate and economic efficiency gradually disappeared after four years. Combining some other research on our study, we find that the policy effect on the GDP growth rate is related to the level of economic growth in these areas. The policy of the National New Area has less influence on GDP growth if approved in the developed region rather than in the undeveloped region. We think that it is better to set up a National New Area in a relatively undeveloped area.

Navigating Economic Uncertainties: The Role of Technological Innovations in Enhancing Supply Chain Resilience

This study explores the multifaceted impact of economic indicators, financial market dynamics, and technological innovations on supply chain efficiency and resilience. Through comprehensive quantitative analyses, including panel data regression, multivariate regression, and time-series analysis, we dissect the relationship between GDP growth rates, inflation, unemployment rates, interest rate fluctuations, exchange rate volatility, stock market trends, and supply chain performance metrics. Our findings highlight a significant correlation between economic growth and supply chain efficiencies, the exacerbating effect of inflation and unemployment on supply chain costs and demand, and the nuanced impacts of financial market dynamics on supply chain financing and operational strategies. Moreover, we delve into the transformative potential of digitalization, automation, blockchain technology, and advanced analytics in mitigating risks associated with economic fluctuations and financial uncertainties. The empirical evidence suggests that technological innovations not only enhance supply chain resilience but also offer strategic advantages in navigating the complexities of global economic landscapes. This study underscores the critical need for adaptive strategies that leverage technological advancements to sustain supply chain competitiveness in an era of economic and financial volatility.

Oil and Gas Industry of India: Russian Aspect

Rather high rates of GDP growth (compared to the world average and other Asian countries) and real incomes of the population, combined with ongoing policies of industrialization and urbaniza-tion, make India one of the most attractive markets for commodities. The country needs natural resources, mainly oil and gas. Among the key areas of development of the national economy are the oil and gas producing and processing industries. Cooperation in the energy sector between Russia and India is developing steadily and progressively, important joint projects are also being implemented. The Russian Federation exports all types of raw materials, with the exception of pipeline natural gas. In 2023, oil imports from Russia, according to the Ministry of Commerce and Industry of India, amounted to 82.21 million tons (about 1.64 million barrels per day), which is 2.61 times higher than in 2022. During the same period, 9.09 million tons of Russian oil prod-ucts were delivered (+2.39 times to the level of 2022), more than 70 % of which were fuel oil. India is also among the largest importers of Russian coal and СNG. In 2023, India imported about 23.21 million tons of Russian coal (+28.8 % to the level of 2022) and 0.41 million tons of CNG (equal to the level of 2022). As you can see, Russia is interested in increasing the export of commodities to India due to the fact that the latter is an emerging economy and acts as an ex-panding market for natural fuels for the needs of households and industry. In addition, owing to the sanction restrictions imposed on Russian companies and the need to diversify supplies, in terms of foreign economy Russia takes particular interest in cooperation with Indian partners. Let’s study India’s energy policy, especially its oil and gas market, below.

Reassessing the role of technology for economic growth: A comparative study of Asian developing economies

The role of technology in stimulating economic growth needs to be reexamined considering current heightened economic conditions of Asian developing Economies. This study conducts a comparative analysis of technology proxied by R&D expenditures alongside macroeconomic variables crucial for economic growth. Monthly time-series data from 1990 to 2019 were analyzed using a vector error correction model (VECM), revealing a significant impact of technology on the economic growth of India, Pakistan, and the Philippines. However, in the cases of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Bangladesh, macroeconomic indicators were found more crucial to their economic growth. Results of Granger causality underlined the relationship of R&D expenditures and macroeconomic variables with GDP growth rates. Sensitivity analyses endorsed robustness of the results which highlighted the significance and originality of this study in economic growth aligned with sustainable development goals (SDGs) for developing countries.

Differential Economic Impacts of Chinese and American Trade Policies on Developed Versus Developing Nations

The trade conflict between the United States and China, the two largest economies in the world, has considerable implications for global economic stability and growth. This topic has been selected due to the necessity of understanding how these trade disputes impact other countries, particularly those heavily dependent on exporting goods to these major economies. The analysis aims to investigate the varied effects of the trade war on both industrialized and developing nations. An analysis is conducted to examine the differential effects of the trade war on industrialized and developing nations by studying the changes in GDP growth rates, unemployment rates, and balance of trade trends. This study examines the distinct economic effects of the China-US trade war on Germany, Canada, and Mexico, which serve as representative examples of developed and developing nations. The results emphasize the significance of customized policy measures to tackle the distinct difficulties and prospects encountered by various economies. Developed countries should prioritize efforts to reduce sluggish economic development and address unemployment in specific sectors. On the other hand, developing nations should take advantage of trade diversion benefits and strengthen their economic resilience. This study enhances the awareness of global trade dynamics and offers vital perspectives for policymakers seeking to negotiate the intricacies of international trade wars.

Macroeconomic Drivers of Inflation in Ethiopia: Evidence from ARDL Modelling

Purpose: This study identifies the macroeconomic determinants of inflation in Ethiopia from 2012 to 2023, a period marked by reforms and liberalization efforts. Despite these measures, inflation remains a critical challenge impacting Ethiopia's economic stability.Method: Utilizing the ARDL model, this study examines the relationship between inflation and various macroeconomic indicators. Data are drawn from sources such as the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE), Ethiopian Economic Association (EEA), International Monetary Fund (IMF), and World Bank (WB). The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests are employed to assess data stationarity.Findings: Results indicate that money supply growth, import-to-GDP ratio, budget deficit, and public expenditure have a significant positive effect on inflation in both the long and short term. Conversely, lending interest rates exhibit inflationary effects in the short term but are deflationary in the long term. Additionally, external debt-to-GDP ratio, official exchange rate, and real GDP growth rate demonstrate negative long-term impacts on inflation.Novelty: This research uniquely integrates key macroeconomic variables, analyzing their divergent impacts on inflation across short- and long-term frameworks in Ethiopia's context.Implications: The findings underscore the importance of balanced fiscal and monetary policies to curb inflation, offering critical insights for Ethiopian policymakers aiming to foster economic stability.

The influence of unconventional monetary policy tools: an euro area perspective

Purpose – This article aims to investigate the influence of unconventional monetary policy tools (UMPTs) employed by the European Central Bank (ECB) on the inflation rate and GDP growth rate within the euro area, motivated by the principles of the Taylor rule. Research methodology – Elastic net regression with ARIMA residuals was used to analyse the relationship between UMPTs and economic indicators, measured by adjusted R-squared. Six samples were constructed, and hypothesis testing was performed using moving block bootstrapping. Residual diagnostics were used for model validation. Findings – The study revealed significant impacts of UMPTs, particularly in combination with interest rates, on inflation rates. However, adjusted R-square values for GDP growth rate were less pronounced, indicating a more complex relationship. Research contributes to understanding the dynamics of monetary policy transmission mechanisms, informing policy institutions, and guiding future research directions. Research limitations – Limitations include the focus on the euro area and the absence of analysis in other major economies. Future research should address these limitations and incorporate additional variables for a more comprehensive analysis. Practical implications – The findings provide insight for policymakers regarding the efficacy of UMPTs in influencing inflation rates, aiding in informed decision-making in monetary policy formulation and implementation. Originality/Value – This study contributes novelty by comprehensively analysing the relationship between UMPTs and economic indicators within the euro area, providing valuable insight into monetary policy institutions, and guiding future research directions.

Linking the BOPC growth model with foreign debt dynamics to goods and labour markets: A BOP-IXSM-Okun model

We link a BOPC growth model to the goods market, foreign debt dynamics, and Okun's law. A new condition for getting the Thirlwall effect of world GDP growth on domestic growth is that investment and export shares of GDP should react less to an increase in the domestic growth rate than savings and import shares. If this condition holds, the Thirlwall effect is present for the equilibrium point of stable and unstable debt/GDP dynamics and for positive or negative reactions of the current account to domestic growth. Okun's law translates the effect on the domestic GDP growth rate to a change of the unemployment rate. Under unstable debt/GDP dynamics, the change of world GDP growth may turn around the direction of the debt/GDP dynamics, a second important foreign growth effect. Estimations support the specification of the theoretical model and lead to simulations of the Thirlwall effect, terms of trade and interest rate shocks on output growth. Profit maximizing bank consortia set interest rates below growth rates ensuring stable debt dynamics in the presence of an interior maximum. Conditions for an interior maximum are empirically violated for Brazil indicating that banks would have to change the economy strongly. A crisis can be less likely through a jump into a steady state for the debt/GDP ratio; unstable, increasing debt/GDP processes through high interest rates cannot be ruled out though and may lead to crises unless the empirics of the stability conditions gets more favourable and leads the country-bank model into a stable steady state or out of indebtedness.

Market Capitalization and Economic Growth Nexus A Mediation Analysis for selected countries

The study examined the mediating role of market capitalization in the relationship between economic growth and macroeconomic variables in twenty countries, including foreign direct investment, gross fixed capital formation, government spending, and inflation. The study has used panel data of twenty countries from the period of 2002-2021. The selection of countries involves three criterions, first; the study selected three regions; Asia, Europe, and Mena region. Secondly, among those selected countries, the study tried to select all three categories, higher income countries, middle income countries, and upper middle-income countries. The selection of these countries follows the criteria of GDP growth rate of 2021. Thirdly, these economies are either emerging economies or the economies who have established the stock market and getting its benefits for sustained GDP growth rate e.g. Australia, China, and Germany etc. Panel regression results show that foreign direct investment, gross fixed capital formation, consumption expenditures, inflation, GDP per employed person, and education expenditures all contribute to economic growth in selected countries, whereas an increase in the real effective exchange rate reduces growth. Hayes (2022) employs a mediation analysis approach that confirms market capitalization as a partially mediating variable between the rate of economic growth and various control variables in case of selected 20 countries. Providing more favorable policies for investors and enterprises, such as special economic zones and free tax breaks. Furthermore, emphasis on the money supply and preserving the currency's balance between face and interior worth. Increased foreign direct investment raises the country's workforce demand.

CORRUPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: DOES DATA SUPPORT “GREASE THE WHEELS” OR “SAND THE WHEELS”?

The study investigated the relationship between corruption and economic growth in Nigeria using data from 1996 to 2020. The research employed the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) method and Granger causality tests. The FMOLS results indicated that both gross fixed capital formation and urbanization significantly and positively influence economic growth in Nigeria, whereas the corruption index has a negative and significant effect, aligning with the "sand the wheels" theory. The Granger causality analysis showed a unidirectional relationship, where gross fixed capital formation Granger-causes GDP growth rate, and GDP growth rate Granger-causes both the corruption index and the relative corruption ranking in Nigeria. Based on these results, the study recommends that policymakers prioritise transparency and good governance by implementing e-governance initiatives to reduce bureaucratic hurdles and opportunities for corruption. Furthermore, there should be consistent monitoring and thorough evaluation of the impact of anti-corruption strategies on economic growth and development to ensure their effectiveness.

ECONOMIC SECURITY CHALLENGES TO PAKISTAN DURING POST PANDEMIC ERA

Pakistan’s economy has faced many challenges since the inception of Pakistan as an independent state. The economy of country was largely dependent on agrarian resources during the initial decades and then industrial bases afterwards. During the past three decades it the economy of Pakistan depends on loans and financial aids from international financial institutions such as, IMF along the industrial growth. The world economy slowed down after the pandemic and it also had consequences on Pakistan economy. Covid-19 caused major disruption in Pakistan economy. As, Before pandemic the GDP growth rate was 2.50% in 2019 and it fell in negative point -1.27% during the fiscal year 2020. The economic challenges to Pakistan raised during pandemic era such as its GDP growth rate decreased in negative points, its fiscal debt increased to 12.74% in 2020 as compare to 2019. Unemployment, shut down of small businesses, increase in job displacement, fiscal deficit, decline in foreign direct investment are the few challenges to name. Therefore, the economic security of Pakistan had faced many challenges during the post pandemic era. The drastic impact of covid-19 forced government to take immediate steps to counter economic challenges. The first national security policy of Pakistan in this regard made economic indicators as a challenge and made economic security a part of national policy

Adaptive Risk Parity Strategies for Managing Portfolio Risk in Volatile Markets

This paper presents a novel model for Adaptive Risk Parity Portfolio Construction, designed to dynamically adjust portfolio weights based on changing market conditions and economic regimes. Traditional portfolio strategies, such as Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), often rely on static assumptions that can lead to suboptimal performance in volatile markets. In contrast, the adaptive risk parity approach aims to equalize risk contributions across asset classes while responding to fluctuations in economic indicators, such as GDP growth and inflation rates. By employing techniques such as Markov switching models and machine learning for regime identification, the proposed model allows for real-time adjustments to asset allocations. The back-testing results demonstrate that the adaptive risk parity portfolio outperforms static risk parity and traditional mean-variance optimized portfolios in terms of risk-adjusted returns and drawdown management. This research contributes to the field of portfolio management by providing a framework that enhances resilience and adaptability in investment strategies.

Calibrating Ukraine’s Growth Model: How Can Ukraine Emulate Poland’s Growth?

This study provides a comparative analysis of the economic growth paths of Ukraine and Poland from a growth‑model perspective and determines how to calibrate Ukraine’s growth model to converge with Poland’s booming economy. The methodology comprises an approach to operationalizing growth models for GDP growth decomposition into “import‑adjusted” demand components, drawing on national input‑output data from 2000 to 2019. I found that from 2000 to 2003, both European economies relied on a combination of exports and domestic consumption. Expanded trade integration and an FDI boost after Poland joined the EU in 2004 spurred the Polish growth model’s shift to a distinctively export‑led, FDI‑driven strategy with accelerated GDP growth rates. In Ukraine, in the wake of the great financial crisis, I identified a transition to a consumption‑led growth model that, along with a declining investment component of aggregate demand, led to fading growth rates. An analysis of sectoral contributions to GDP growth revealed that avoiding deindustrialization in Poland underpinned the country’s export‑led strategy, unlike Ukraine, which underwent a key sectoral shift from manufacturing to a commodities‑based orientation after 2008. Both these economies demonstrated a high level of integration into global value chains, focusing on labor‑intensive manufacturing and services, but Poland has outperformed Ukraine in terms of share of high value‑added exports, which increased after EU accession. Following the Polish pattern, I propose that Ukraine’s growth model should activate the FDI driver of economic growth, upgrading the export structure and moving up value chains to unlock the country’s growth opportunities. The study represents the first comparison of Ukraine’s and Poland’s economic growth paths that traces the changes in dominant final demand components and macro‑sectors in the two countries’ economic growth profiles. This paper contributes to the comparative political economy literature on the growth models of peripheral economies, providing insights that can inform policies for growth model transformation.

Education Versus Infrastructure: Is There a Trade-off in an Open Economy with Perfect Capital Mobility?

We present an open economy growth model incorporating various elements of fiscal policy, including government expenditure on education and public capital (infrastructure), budget deficit, internal and external public debt, public consumption, and four tax rates. This detailed description of fiscal policy allows for a systematic study of the relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth. We derive the balanced growth path and analyze its properties, including existence, uniqueness, and stability. The theoretical results are supported by numerical simulations for Poland, with the model calibrated based on data from the years 2010 to 2019. In the baseline scenario, the GDP growth rate converges to 3.98%. However, through appropriate adjustments to fiscal policy, economic growth can be significantly accelerated. Notably, increasing spending on both education and public infrastructure proves to be the most effective way to permanently boost economic growth, even if it requires raising taxes on consumption or increasing public debt.

Nominal GDP growth targeting vs. Taylor rules in a model with financial frictions

Nominal GDP growth targeting has gained favor over the last few decades in monetary policy literature (e.g., Ireland 2020; Garín et al. 2016; Beckworth and Hendrickson 2020). Calibrated, small-scale New Keynesian DSGE models have supported the proposition that nominal GDP growth (NGDP growth) rate targeting will improve welfare as compared with alternative strategies such as inflation targeting and Taylor rules with standard parameter settings. This paper examines that proposition in the context of a medium-scale New Keynesian model having a financial sector with frictions. In that model, NGDP growth rate targeting does poorly as compared with the Optimal Taylor rule and a wide range of Taylor rule settings leading up to the Optimal (representative agent utility maximizing) Taylor rule. The presence of the financial sector reveals that not only is NGDP growth rate targeting the least successful among the alternative targets and rules in creating welfare in this model; NGDP growth rate targeting also creates dramatically higher volatility of the policy rate and most financial variables.

An investigation of the predictors of credit risk among Ghanaian rural banks

This study investigated the predictors of credit risk in rural and community banks (RCBs), and the effects of rural banking in the Ashanti Region of Ghana. The study examined the correlation between credit risk as the dependent factor and a set of 8 systemic and unsystemic factors of credit risk as independent variables. The systemic variables were GDP growth rate, interest rate, inflation rate and unemployment rate. The unsystemic factors analyzed were branch network, total assets, return on assets and capital adequacy ratio. Secondary data was collected from 15 RCBs which were selected through purposive sampling, stratified random sampling and simple random sampling. Data collected was analyzed using Microsoft Excel and STATA software applications. Dataset ranged from the year 2008 to 2017. Descriptive statistical analysis, correlational analysis and regression analysis were undertaken. The study found that, return on assets, branch network and size were the significant unsystemic predictors of credit risk whilst interest rate, inflation and unemployment were the significant systemic predictors of credit risk in RCBs in Ghana. Furthermore, the study revealed that RCBs have had considerable positive impact on the communities where they operated. Managers of RCBs must consider pursuing a strategy of branch expansion and improving efficiency of staff because of the moderating effects of these factors on credit risk. This study contributed to the understanding of the relationship between unsystemic predictors of credit risk and systemic predictors of credit risk in RCBs, as intervening variables.