Greenhouse Gas Emission Rates Research Articles

Water and Energy Consumption by Agriculture in the Minqin Oasis Region

Water used in agriculture consumes much energy, mainly due to pumping water for irrigation, but the water-energy nexus is always neglected in arid and semi-arid areas. Based on hydrological observation data, irrigation data and socio-economic data over the past 50 yr, this study has derived a detailed estimate of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural water use in the Minqin Oasis. Results show that the decreasing water supply and increasing demand for agriculture has caused severe water deficits over the past 50 yr in this region. The groundwater energy use rate rose by 76% between 1961 and 2009 because of the serious decline in groundwater levels. An increase in pump lift by an average 1 m would cause GHG emission rates to rise by around 2%. Over the past 10 yr, the GHG emissions from groundwater accounted for 65-88% of the total emissions from agricultural water. GHG emissions for diverted water varied from 0.047 to 0.074 Mt CO2e as the water input increased. Long distance conveyance and high pump lifts need more electricity input than groundwater abstraction does. Government policies have had a favorable effect on total emissions by reducing water abstraction. But groundwater depletion, exacerbated by a growing population and an expansion in arable land, remains the principal energy-water nexus challenge in the region. In response to the increasing water-energy crisis, energy-saving irrigation technology, matching to cost efficiencies, and better coordination between different infrastructural agencies could be feasible ways of rendering the water and energy sectors more sustainable over the long term.

Effects of different influent C/N ratios on the performance of various earthworm eco-filter systems: nutrient removal and greenhouse gas emission

In this study, we sought to identify influent carbon-to-nitrogen (C/N) ratios that yield relatively high nutrient removal efficiency with relatively low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The earthworm eco-filter (EE) system, which is composed of earthworms and plants (EP group), was found to be optimal for maximizing nutrient removal while reducing GHG emissions. In this EE system, the optimal influent C/N ratio for nutrient removal and GHG emission under C2N treatment conditions. Nutrient removal efficiency under this condition was 85.19 ± 6.40% chemical oxygen demand, 71.99 ± 11.28% total nitrogen, and 77.91 ± 8.51% total phosphorus, while the CO2 emission rate was 678.89 ± 201.87 mg m(-2) h(-1). Moreover, the highest nutrient removal and GHG emission rates were both achieved in late summer (August). Thus, carbon variation, season, system variation, as well as synergistic interaction between system variations and seasons, significantly affect nutrient removal efficiencies and GHG emissions.

Rates and controls of nitrification in a large oligotrophic lake

Recent discoveries have altered prevailing paradigms concerning the conditions under which nitrification takes place and the organisms responsible for nitrification in aquatic ecosystems. In Lake Superior, nitrate () concentrations have increased fivefold in the past century. Although previous evidence indicated that most is generated by nitrification within the lake, important questions remain concerning the magnitude and controls of nitrification, and which microbial groups are primarily responsible for this process. We measured water‐column nitrification rates in the western basin of Lake Superior during five research cruises from November 2009 to March 2011. Using in situ bottle incubations at 10 depths, we quantified nitrification rates using both the oxidation of 15N‐labeled ammonium () and the uptake of 14C associated with nitrification. Average rates of oxidation ranged from 18–34 nmol N L−1 d−1 across the five cruises, similar to values reported for the coastal ocean, and two orders of magnitude lower than values reported from other lakes. Low nitrification rates observed in the epilimnion corresponded to the absence of ammonium‐oxidizing archaea and nitrite‐oxidizing bacteria. The measured rates of nitrification are > 50‐fold greater than the long‐term rise in the lake, indicating that N is actively cycling and that long‐term change in this ecosystem is mediated by internal dynamics.

On the possible origin of thermal infrared radiation (TIR) anomalies in earthquake-prone areas observed using robust satellite techniques (RST)

Several studies performed in the past 30years suggested the existence of anomalous space-time transients, in the thermal infrared (TIR) radiation emitted by the Earth, possibly related to earthquake preparatory phenomena. Among various theories about their origin, the abrupt increase in greenhouse gas (such as CO2, CH4, etc.) emission rates was also proposed to explain the appearance of anomalous TIR signal transients in some relation with the place and the time of earthquake occurrence. As, under stable atmospheric conditions, the accumulation/dispersion of gases in the air depends on their molecular weight, CO2 tends to collect near the ground and layer forming “rivers” and/or “lakes” following terrain morphology close to its sources. On the contrary, the dispersion pattern of CH4, whose mass is smaller than that of CO2, is less affected by the terrain morphology so that the gas tends to be dispersed very readily, basically governed by the wind and normal atmospheric turbulence. If TIR anomalies are effectively related to exceptional degassing events, such differences should produce very different spatial/temporal patterns in the TIR anomalies observed, depending on the greenhouse gas emanated. In this paper, this hypothesis has been tested from different viewpoints and the results show that:a)an increase of only 2–3 times the normal CO2 mixing ratio level is sufficient to justify the excesses observed in TIR signal.b)areas dominated by diffusing gases which are heavier than the air (like CO2) show (as expected) anomalous TIR patterns which follow morphological lineaments (e.g. tectonic faults); in areas dominated by diffusing gases which are lighter than the air (like CH4) the TIR patterns observed spread over wide zones, following prevailing winds and diffusing around with less marked correlation with morphological lineaments.c)anomalous TIR patterns were observed over the Azerbaijan region during the Bozdag–Guzdak mud volcano eruption (May 1995), showing exactly the same spatial/temporal behavior expected for methane-dominated degassing areas.

도로수송부문의 온실가스 배출량 산정방법에 따른 경기도 시·군별 배출량 비교

The Korean government decided to reduce 30% of GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions BAU in 2020. Since many efforts to reduce emissions are urgently needed in Korea, the central administrative organization urges local governments to establish their own reduction schemes. Among many GHG emission categories, the emission from mobile source in Gyeonggi Province accounted for 25.3% of total emissions in 2007 and further the emission from road transport sector occupied the most dominant portion in this transportation category. The objective of this study was to compare 3 types of GHG emissions from road transport sector in 31 local cities/counties of Gyeonggi Province, which have been estimated by Tier 1, Tier 2, and Tier 3 methodologies. As results, the GHG emission rates by the Tier 1 and Tier 2 were and , respectively. On the other hand, the emission rate by Tier 3 excluding a branch road emission portion was . In addition, the total emission rate including all the main and branch road portions in Gyeonggi Province was , which was estimated by a new Tier 3 methodology. Based on this study, we could conclude that Tier 3 is a reasonable methodology than Tier 1 or Tier 2. However, more accurate and less uncertain methodology must be developed by expanding traffic survey areas and adopting a suitable model for traffic volumes.

Areal-averaged trace gas emission rates from long-range open-path measurements in stable boundary layer conditions

Abstract. Measurements of land-surface emission rates of greenhouse and other gases at large spatial scales (10 000 m2) are needed to assess the spatial distribution of emissions. This can be readily done using spatial-integrating micro-meteorological methods like flux-gradient methods which were evaluated for determining land-surface emission rates of trace gases under stable boundary layers. Non-intrusive path-integrating measurements are utilized. Successful application of a flux-gradient method requires confidence in the gradients of trace gas concentration and wind, and in the applicability of boundary-layer turbulence theory; consequently the procedures to qualify measurements that can be used to determine the flux is critical. While there is relatively high confidence in flux measurements made under unstable atmospheres with mean winds greater than 1 m s−1, there is greater uncertainty in flux measurements made under free convective or stable conditions. The study of N2O emissions of flat grassland and NH3 emissions from a cattle lagoon involves quality-assured determinations of fluxes under low wind, stable or night-time atmospheric conditions when the continuous "steady-state" turbulence of the surface boundary layer breaks down and the layer has intermittent turbulence. Results indicate that following the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) flux-gradient methods that assume a log-linear profile of the wind speed and concentration gradient incorrectly determine vertical profiles and thus flux in the stable boundary layer. An alternative approach is considered on the basis of turbulent diffusivity, i.e. the measured friction velocity as well as height gradients of horizontal wind speeds and concentrations without MOST correction for stability. It is shown that this is the most accurate of the flux-gradient methods under stable conditions.

Influence of soil aggregate size on greenhouse gas emission and uptake rate from tropical peat soil in forest and different oil palm development years

The influence of oil palm development on tropical peat soil decomposition rate was investigated by an incubation experiment. Soil samples from soil surface and around underground water table were taken from forest site, and oil palm site at 1st and 9th year after development. The soil samples were sieved into 0–2mm, 2–8mm and 8–20mm and analyzed for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes.The development of oil palm did not change the CO2 emissions and showed inconsistent influence on CH4 flux according to aggregate size, while significantly higher N2O emissions were found for aggregates 0–2mm at high moisture of oil palm plantation soils compared with the original forest. Nitrous oxide fluxes showed significant positive correlation with the CO2 flux, which indicated that soil organic matter decomposition was closely related to the N2O production. On the other hand, CH4 flux showed clear emission for aggregates bigger than 2mm, while aggregates size 0–2mm showed consistent CH4 uptake. These results showed that investigation of greenhouse gas emissions in tropical peat soil must take into account the aggregate characteristics of the soil, which are inhomogeneous and mixed with fresh organic matter.

Stochastic models for greenhouse gas emission rate estimation from hydroelectric reservoirs: a Bayesian hierarchical approach

Herein, we propose a fully Bayesian approach to the greenhouse gas emission problem. The goal of this work is to estimate the emission rate of polluting gases from the area flooded by hydroelectric reservoirs. We present models for gas concentration evolution in two ways: first, by proposing them from ordinary differential equation solutions and, second, by using stochastic differential equations with a discretization scheme. Finally, we present techniques to estimate the emission rate for the entire reservoir. In order to carry out the inference, we use the Bayesian framework with Monte Carlo via Markov Chain methods. Discretization schemes over continuous differential equations are used when necessary. These models applied to greenhouse gas emission and Bayesian inference for this purpose are completely new in statistical literature, as far as we know, and contribute to estimate the amount of polluting gases released from hydroelectric reservoirs in Brazil. The proposed models are applied in a real data set and results are presented.

Soil carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide emissions during the growing season from temperate maize‐soybean intercrops

AbstractThe Argentine Pampa is one of the major global regions for the production of maize (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max L. [Merr.]), but intense management practices have led to soil degradation and amplified greenhouse‐gas (GHG) emissions. This paper presents preliminary data on the effect of maize‐soybean intercrops compared with maize and soybean sole crops on the short‐term emission rates of CO2 and N2O and its relationship to soil moisture or temperature over two field seasons. Soil organic carbon (SOC) concentrations were significantly greater (p < 0.05) in the maize sole crop and intercrops, whereas soil bulk density was significantly lower in the intercrops. Soil CO2 emission rates were significantly greater in the maize sole crop but did not differ significantly for N2O emissions. Over two field seasons, both trace gases showed a general trend of greater emission rates in the maize sole crop followed by the soybean sole crop and were lowest in the intercrops. Linear regression between soil GHG (CO2 and N2O) emission rates and soil temperature or volumetric soil moisture were not significant except in the 1:2 intercrop where a significant relationship was observed between N2O emissions and soil temperature in the first field season and between N2O and volumetric soil moisture in the second field season. Our results demonstrated that intercropping in the Argentine Pampa may be a more sustainable agroecosystem land‐management practice with respect to GHG emissions.

An economic, sustainability, and energetic model of biodiesel production from microalgae

A new process evaluation methodology of microalgae biodiesel has been developed. Based on four evaluation criteria, i.e. the net energy ratio (NER), biodiesel production costs, greenhouse gases (GHG) emission rate and water footprint, the model compares various technologies for each step of the process, from cultivation to oil upgrading. An innovative pathway (hybrid raceway/PBR cultivation system, belt filter press for dewatering, wet lipid extraction, oil hydrotreating and anaerobic digestion of residues) shows good results in comparison to a reference pathway (doubled NER, lower GHG emission rate and water footprint). The production costs are still unfavourable (between 1.94 and 3.35€/L of biodiesel). The most influential parameters have been targeted through a global sensitivity analysis and classified: (i) lipid productivity, (ii) the cultivation step, and (iii) the downstream processes. The use of low-carbon energy sources is required to achieve significant reductions of the biodiesel GHG emission rate compared to petroleum diesel.

Optimization of specific rating for wind turbine arrays coupled to compressed air energy storage

A methodology is presented for jointly optimizing the wind turbine specific rating and the storage configuration for a large-scale wind farm coupled to compressed air energy storage (CAES). By allowing the wind-storage system to be optimized in an integrated, variable rating framework the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) can be reduced substantially. These changes also enhance the capacity factor of the wind farm, reduce the storage capacity requirements of the baseload plant and reduce the greenhouse gas emission rate of the combined system relative to a separately optimized wind farm coupled to CAES. The results of this analysis could have important implications for the competitiveness of large-scale remote wind and the applicability of energy storage as a baseload wind strategy in a carbon constrained world.

Ammonia and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from a Dairy Cattle Barn with a Daily Manure Collection System

This study quantifies concentrations and emission rates (ER) of ammonia (NH3) and greenhouse gases (GHG), including carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), during four seasons of one year in north China from a naturally ventilated dairy cattle barn with a daily manure collection system, with each monitoring episode lasting five consecutive days. Gaseous concentrations of background and exhaust air were measured using an infrared photoacoustic multi-gas monitor with a multi-channel sampler. About 120 gas concentration measurements were taken for each season. Barn ventilation rate (VR) was determined by CO2 mass balance using literature metabolic rate data for dairy cattle. Both gas concentrations and ER showed considerable diurnal and seasonal variations. Annual mean (SD) ER of NH3, CO2, and CH4 for the monitored dairy cattle barn were 75.5 25.3 g d-1 cow-1, 8.9 0.7 kg d-1 cow-1, and 305 119 g d-1 cow-1, respectively. Ammonia and greenhouse gas ER from the current study were within the ranges of values reported for dairy cattle.

Modelling of greenhouse gas emissions from municipal solid waste disposal in Africa

Data on waste management in Africa are poor. There is uncertainty over the quantity of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from waste management, notably from waste disposal. Data have been collected on solid waste management for territories in Africa and a multi-phase first order decay (FOD) model has been prepared to calculate GHG emissions from waste disposal in accordance with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidance. The multi-phase FOD model calculates the GHG emissions from waste disposal as 8.1% of the total GHG emissions in Africa in 2010. This is similar to the last published figure of 6.8% for 2004 data but considerably more than the world average figure of 3% GHG emissions from landfill. Probability modelling of the data used to calculate the multi-phase FOD model demonstrates that the data are variable, with a high standard deviation. The GHG emission rate from waste disposal in African territories will increase leading to further climate change as the population increases and becomes more urbanised. Whilst the UNFCCC is dedicated to minimise climate change globally, this paper demonstrates the need for the creation, at the African level, of a waste management body to assess the situation country by country with the objective to elaborate country specific recommendations for waste management.

Environmental and economic assessments of magnetic and inertial fusion energy reactors

Global warming due to rapid greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is one of the present-day crucial problems, and fusion reactors are expected to be abundant electric power generation systems to reduce human GHG emission amounts. To search for an environmental-friendly and economical fusion reactor system, comparative system studies have been done for several magnetic fusion energy reactors, and have been extended to include inertial fusion energy reactors. We clarify new scaling formulae for the cost of electricity and GHG emission rate with respect to key design parameters, which might be helpful in making a strategy for fusion research development. Comparisons with other conventional electric power generation systems are carried out taking into account the introduction of GHG taxes and the application of the carbon dioxide capture and storage system to fossil power generators.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Ground Level Area Sources in Dairy and Cattle Feedyard Operations

A protocol that consisted of an isolation flux chamber and a portable gas chromatograph was used to directly quantify greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at a dairy and a feedyard operation in the Texas Panhandle. Field sampling campaigns were performed 5 consecutive days only during daylight hours from 9:00 am to 7:00 pm each day. The objective of this research was to quantify and compare GHG emission rates (ERs) from ground level area sources (GLAS) at dairy and cattle feedyard operations during the summer. A total of 74 air samples using flux chamber were collected from the barn (manure lane and bedding area), loafing pen, open lot, settling basin, lagoons, and compost pile within the dairy operation. For the cattle feedyard, a total of 87 air samples were collected from four corner pens of a large feedlot, runoff holding pond, and compost pile. Three primary GHGs (methane, carbon dioxide, and nitrous oxide) were measured and quantified from both operations. The aggregate estimated ERs for CH4, CO2, and N2O were 836, 5573, 3.4 g hd−1 d−1 (collectively 27.5 kg carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) hd−1 d−1), respectively, at the dairy operation. The aggregate ERs for CH4, CO2, and N2O were 3.8, 1399, 0.68 g hd−1 d−1 (1.7 kg CO2e hd−1 d−1), respectively, from the feedyard. The estimated USEPA GHG ERs were about 13.2 and 1.16 kg CO2e hd−1 d−1, respectively, for dairy and feedyard operations. Aggregate CH4, CO2 and N2O ERs at the dairy facility were about 219, 4 and 5 times higher, respectively, than those at the feedyard. At the dairy, average CH4 ERs estimated from the settling basin, primary and secondary lagoons were significantly higher than those from the other GLAS, contributing about 98% of the aggregate CH4 emission. The runoff holding pond and pen surface of the feedyard contributed about 99% of the aggregate CH4 emission. Average CO2 and N2O ERs estimated from the pen surface area were significantly higher than those estimated from the compost pile and runoff pond. The pen surface alone contributed about 93% and 84% of the aggregate CO2 and N2O emission, respectively. Abatement and management practices that address GHG emissions from these sources will likely be most effective for reducing facility emissions.

화학산업의 인벤토리 구축 및 공정진단을 통한 온실가스 배출 저감에 관한 연구

본 연구는 기후변화 대응을 위한 온실가스 인벤토리 구축 및 공정진단을 통해 온실가스 배출 저감 결과를 나타내었다. 또한 기업체의 기후변화 대응에 대한 방향을 제시하였다. 울산지역은 산업단지 중심으로 석유화학, 자동차, 조선 등 에너지 다소비업체가 많으며, 이산화탄소 배출 저감을 체계적으로 실시 할 경우 국가적 차원에서 이산화탄소 배출량을 상당히 줄일 수 있을 것으로 판단되어 10개 기업체 대상으로 본 연구를 실시하였다. 10개 기업체 중 5개 기업체의 온실가스 배출량 산정 및 인벤토리 구축 결과 온실가스 배출량의 공정에 따른 직접배출이 높은 것을 알 수 있었다. 또한 에너지 및 온실가스 저감을 위해 약 온실가스저감 227,554만원 경제적 효과 및 온실가스 이산화탄소 50,740 ton/yr 절감효과를 발생하였다. This study showed the reduced greenhouse gas(GHG) emission through GHG inventory establishment and process diagnosis for a response to climatic change. Also, it presented a direction for company's response to climatic change. Ulsan from its industrial complex has many energy-intensive companies such as petrochemistry, automobile and shipbuilding, and as we judged that the systematic reduction of GHG emission would make a considerable reduction of GHG emission in national dimension we executed this study from 10 companies. It showed the high rate of direction GHG emissions by its process that 5 of 10 companies calculated GHG emission and built its inventory. Also, in order to reduce energy and GHG, it produced about 227,554 million won of its economic effect and 50,740 ton/yr of its sparing effect.

Greenhouse gas emissions control in integrated municipal solid waste management through mixed integer bilevel decision-making

Recent studies indicated that municipal solid waste (MSW) is a major contributor to global warming due to extensive emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). However, most of them focused on investigating impacts of MSW on GHG emission amounts. This study presents two mixed integer bilevel decision-making models for integrated municipal solid waste management and GHG emissions control: MGU-MCL and MCU-MGL. The MGU-MCL model represents a top-down decision process, with the environmental sectors at the national level dominating the upper-level objective and the waste management sectors at the municipal level providing the lower-level objective. The MCU-MGL model implies a bottom-up decision process where municipality plays a leading role. Results from the models indicate that: the top-down decisions would reduce metric tonne carbon emissions (MTCEs) by about 59% yet increase about 8% of the total management cost; the bottom-up decisions would reduce MTCE emissions by about 13% but increase the total management cost very slightly; on-site monitoring and downscaled laboratory experiments are still required for reducing uncertainty in GHG emission rate from the landfill facility.

Determining Seasonal Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Ground-Level Area Sources in a Dairy Operation in Central Texas

ABSTRACT Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural production operations are recognized as an important air quality issue. A new technique following the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Method TO-14A was used to measure GHG emissions from ground-level area sources (GLAS) in a free-stall dairy operation in central Texas. The objective of this study was to quantify and report GHG emission rates (ERs) from the dairy during the summer and winter using this protocol. A weeklong sampling was performed during each season. A total of 75 and 66 chromatograms of air samples were acquired from six delineated GLAS (loafing pen, walkway, barn, silage pile, settling basin, and lagoon) of the same dairy during summer and winter, respectively. Three primary GHGs—methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2), and nitrous oxide (N2O)—were identified from the dairy operation during the sampling periods. The estimated overall ERs for CH4, CO2, and N2O during the summer for this dairy were 274, 6005, and 7.96 g head−1day−1, respectively. During the winter, the estimated overall CH4, CO2, and N2O ERs were 52, 7471, and 3.59 g head−1day−1, respectively. The overall CH4 and N2O ERs during the summer were approximately 5.3 and 2.2 times higher than those in the winter for the free-stall dairy. These seasonal variations were likely due to fluctuations in ambient temperature, dairy manure loading rates, and manure microbial activity of GLAS. The annualized ERs for CH4, CO2, and N2O for this dairy were estimated to be 181, 6612, and 6.13 g head−1day−1, respectively. Total GHG emissions calculated for this dairy with 500 cows were 2250 t of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) per year. IMPLICATIONS The agricultural sector, especially concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) contribute a considerable amount of GHGs to the atmosphere. To develop abatement strategies to reduce GHG emissions, it is important to learn to collect, analyze, verify, and report real data on actual emissions. Therefore, there is a need for a robust and accurate technique/protocol to measure GHGs from CAFOs. It is important to obtain direct estimates of GHG emissions from different GLAS in CAFOs to compile emission inventories and to develop GLAS-specific abatement strategies.

The land use–climate change–energy nexus

Landscape ecology focuses on the spatial patterns and processes of ecological and human interactions. These patterns and processes are being altered by both changing resource-management practices of humans and changing climate conditions associated, in part, with increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. Dominant resource-extraction and land-management activities involve energy, and the use of fossil energy is one of the key drivers behind increasing greenhouse gas emissions as well as land-use changes. Alternative energy sources (such as wind, solar, nuclear, and bioenergy) are being explored to reduce greenhouse gas emission rates. Yet, energy production, including alternative-energy options, can have a wide range of effects on land productivity, surface cover, albedo, and other factors that affect carbon, water, and energy fluxes and, in turn, climate. Meanwhile, climate influences the potential output, relative efficiencies, and sustainability of alternative energy sources. Thus, land use, climate change, and energy choices are linked, and any comprehensive analysis in landscape ecology that considers one of these factors should be cognizant of these interactions. This analysis explores the implications of linkages between land use, climate hange, and energy and points out ecological patterns and processes that may be affected by their interactions.

Impacts of climate change on the world's most exceptional ecoregions.

The current rate of warming due to increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is very likely unprecedented over the last 10,000 y. Although the majority of countries have adopted the view that global warming must be limited to <2 °C, current GHG emission rates and nonagreement at Copenhagen in December 2009 increase the likelihood of this limit being exceeded by 2100. Extensive evidence has linked major changes in biological systems to 20th century warming. The "Global 200" comprises 238 ecoregions of exceptional biodiversity [Olson DM, Dinerstein E (2002) Ann Mo Bot Gard 89:199-224]. We assess the likelihood that, by 2070, these iconic ecoregions will regularly experience monthly climatic conditions that were extreme in 1961-1990. Using >600 realizations from climate model ensembles, we show that up to 86% of terrestrial and 83% of freshwater ecoregions will be exposed to average monthly temperature patterns >2 SDs (2σ) of the 1961-1990 baseline, including 82% of critically endangered ecoregions. The entire range of 89 ecoregions will experience extreme monthly temperatures with a local warming of <2 °C. Tropical and subtropical ecoregions, and mangroves, face extreme conditions earliest, some with <1 °C warming. In contrast, few ecoregions within Boreal Forests and Tundra biomes will experience such extremes this century. On average, precipitation regimes do not exceed 2σ of the baseline period, although considerable variability exists across the climate realizations. Further, the strength of the correlation between seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over numerous ecoregions. These results suggest many Global 200 ecoregions may be under substantial climatic stress by 2100.