Exchange Rate Coefficient Research Articles

An Assessment of Kenyan Diplomatic Strategies in Managing Its Kenya-Somalia Maritime Border Disputes

In LDCs like Ethiopia, one of the major macroeconomic problems is the absence of effective monetary policy. The money demand function play a major role in macroeconomic analysis, especially in selecting appropriate monetary policy actions. The objective of monetary policy in the least developing countries (LDCs) is usually related to money and credit control, price stabilization and economic growth. Many LDCs considered, price stability as the most important objective of monetary polices and it is important to testing the stability of parameter of money demand function indicate the effectiveness of the conduct of monetary policy. The research to be conducted therefore is to investigate the determinants of money demand function. Based on the data, which could be found an error correction model (ECM) was applied to estimate the money demand function in Ethiopia. From the study it is found that, money demand is positively related with real GDP and it is negatively related with expected inflation. The coefficient of real effective exchange rate is positive or negative depending on the magnitude of the appreciation and depreciation of local currency. Thus the studies calls for appropriate formulation and implementation of sound monetary policy capable of bringing stability in the coomy coupled with sustainable growth. Keywords : money demand , economic growth , error correction model DOI : 10.7176/DCS/9-1-02

). The competitiveness disparity between core and peripheral EU countries: an empirical analysis with panel ARDL approach

Purpose- This study empirically investigates whether there is an asymmetry between the competitiveness of the core and peripheral EU countries in the post-monetary union period, which includes the public debt crisis. Methodology- This paper analyzes the long and short-term effects of the interest rate for public bond yields and real effective exchange rate on public debt in core (Germany, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, and the Netherlands) and peripheral (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) EU countries using the panel linear Autoregressive Distributive Lag model. In the study, second-generation unit root tests, Westerlund's (2007) cointegration test, and short and long-term MG, PMG, and DFE panel econometric methods are employed. Findings- According to the primary findings of the study: (i) while the interest rate for public bond yields is not effective on public debt in core EU countries, it has an increasing effect on public debt with a high positive coefficient in peripheral EU countries. (ii) The long-term coefficient of the real effective exchange rate in the peripheral EU countries is higher than in the core EU countries. According to this conclusion, the increase in the real effective exchange rate augments the public debt of the peripheral EU countries at a higher level than the core EU countries. Conclusion- Contrary to the monetarist approach that relies on the role of one last funder, these findings contribute to the literature by supporting the first two conditions of the Optimum Currency Area, the Varieties of Capitalism, Comparative Political Economy, and Fundamentalist approaches, which reveal the asymmetrical structure between the competitiveness of the core and peripheral EU countries. Keywords: EMU public debt crisis, core EU countries, peripheral EU countries, panel ARDL model, competitiveness differences JEL Codes: C45, F45, N14, N24

Regression models for calculating state-to-state coefficients of the rate of vibrational energy exchanges

The paper proposes an effective algorithm for solving problems of nonequilibrium gas dynamics taking into account detailed state-to-state vibrational kinetics. One of the problems of traditional methods is their high computational complexity, which requires a lot of time and memory. The work explored the possibilities of using relaxation rate prediction to improve the performance of numerical simulations of nonequilibrium oxygen flows instead of direct calculations. For this purpose, an approach based on nonlinear regression analysis was used, which made it possible to obtain computationally efficient approximation formulas for the energy exchange rate coefficients in the model of a forced harmonic oscillator, taking into account free rotations (FHO-FR), to significantly increase the calculation speed while maintaining accuracy, and to construct an optimized model FHO-FR-reg. Using the obtained regression formulas, numerical modeling was carried out, which made it possible to validate the model for the problem of oxygen flow behind an incident and reflected shock wave. A comparison between the forced harmonic oscillator (FHO) and FHO-FR models is not possible due to the high computational complexity of the second model. With the advent of a common approximation model, it became possible to compare simulation results for these models. Numerical calculations have shown that the FHO-FR-reg model gives values of gas-dynamic parameters close to the FHO model. The developed regression models make it possible to speed up the solution of the problem of modeling oxygen relaxation several times compared to other models of similar accuracy.

Evaluation of Dual Domain Mass Transfer in Porous Media at the Pore Scale.

Dual-porosity models are often used to describe solute transport in heterogeneous media, but the parameters within these models (e.g., immobile porosity and mobile/immobile exchange rate coefficients) are difficult to identify experimentally or relate to measurable quantities. Here, we performed synthetic, pore-scale millifluidics simulations that coupled fluid flow, solute transport, and electrical resistivity (ER). A conductive-tracer test and the associated geoelectrical signatures were simulated for four flow rates in two distinct pore-scale model scenarios: one with intergranular porosity, and a second with an intragranular porosity also defined. With these models, we explore how the effective characteristic-length scale estimated from a best-fit dual-domain mass transfer (DDMT) model compares to geometric aspects of the flow field. In both model scenarios we find that: (1) mobile domains and immobile domains develop even in a system that is explicitly defined with one domain; (2) the ratio of immobile to mobile porosity is larger at faster flow rates as is the mass-transfer rate; and (3) a comparison of length scales associated with the mass-transfer rate (Lα ) and those associated with calculation of the Peclet number (LPe ) show LPe is commonly larger than Lα . These results suggest that estimated immobile porosities from a DDMT model are not only a function of physically mobile or immobile pore space, but also are a function of the average linear pore-water velocity and physical obstructions to flow, which can drive the development of immobile porosity even in single-porosity domains.

Determinants of FDI Inflow from European Union Countries to Vietnam: A Panel Data Analysis

This paper explores the determinants of FDI inflows from EU nations to Vietnam, employing a set of panel data from 26 member countries of EU that have been investing in Vietnam over the period 2012-2020. With the panel dataset, the study estimates three models, including pooled Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Fixed Effect Model (FEM), and Random Effect Model (REM), and then uses several formal tests to determine which model is best suited for data analysis. Based on the results of the F-test, Breusch - Pagan's Lagrange Multiplier test, and Hausman test, the Random Effect Model is preferred. According to the empirical findings, FDI from EU economies to Vietnam might be positively affected by GDP, corruption perception level, or the cleanliness of Vietnam's public sector, which is consistent with the theoretical basis. The effect of trade openness and economic freedom is negative, contrary to expectations. The coefficients of the real exchange rate, infrastructure, and COVID pandemic on FDI inflows are not statistically significant. Further studies should be carried out for a better understanding of these determinants.

Impact of fiscal deficit and trade openness on current account deficit in India: new evidence on twin deficits hypothesis

PurposeThis study aims to examine the impact of fiscal deficit, exchange rate and trade openness on current account deficit (CAD). The study tried to empirically investigate the ‘twin deficits hypothesis’ and ‘compensation hypothesis’ in the Indian context.Design/methodology/approachAutoregressive distributed lagARDL) bound test approach was used by taking annual time series data from 1978 to 2021. The estimates confirm a significant long-run and short-run relationship between dependent variables, i.e. CAD and independent variables such as the fiscal deficit, exchange rate and trade openness.FindingsThe results show that positive shocks of all explanatory variables significantly affect the CAD. CAD and fiscal deficit are significantly associated, as the coefficient of fiscal deficit is positive and significant. The study also found that exchange rate and trade openness significantly affect the CAD. The coefficients of exchange rate and trade openness are positive and significant. The findings show that an increase in CADs results from liberal trade policies that help domestic industries grow their trade and expansionary fiscal policy, leading to a higher fiscal deficit. The negative and significant error correction term suggests that short-run disequilibrium converges to long-run equilibrium at a speed of 19.2%. The findings validate the ‘twin deficits hypothesis’ and ‘compensation hypothesis’ in the Indian context.Practical implicationsIt can be inferred from the study that liberal policy to promote economic growth and trade openness should be designed and promoted judiciously. An excessive liberalised approach may impact other macroeconomic variables such as current account balances. Integrating the domestic market with global markets poses a big challenge for countries like India that aspire to penetrate global markets. Furthermore, the Indian policy makers should rigorously work and promote the policies such as Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) as reduction in fiscal deficits, trade imbalances will also be reduced.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the existing literature on ‘twin deficit’ and trade openness by giving new evidence on the trilemma between designing sustainable fiscal policy by spending wisely without imperilling the country's global presence and CAD.

Recovery and Delay of Impurity-Induced Poisoning of Oxygen Exchange Kinetics in Mixed Conducting Oxides Via Controlled Surface Acidity

The oxygen exchange kinetics in mixed conducting oxide surfaces are critical to a variety of energy-related technologies, including solid oxide fuel/electrolyzer cells (SOFCs/SOECs), permeation membranes, batteries, and sensors. Such devices, however, commonly suffer from performance degradation from impurity-poisoning during long-term operation. In our previous findings, it was found that while acidic additives can depress the surface exchange kinetics, basic additives can enhance these kinetics. Inspired by these findings, we demonstrated the ability to regenerate acidic (Cr and Si)-poisoned surfaces by compensating with basic additive infiltrants (Li and Ca). Electrical conductivity relaxation measurements on porous mixed conducting oxide specimens were used to examine the impact of infiltrants on the oxygen exchange rate coefficient (kchem ) and revealed that the recovery of poisoned surface kinetics can be attributed to the compensation of depleted surface electrons by basic additives.

An Evaluation of the Optimal Inflation Target for Economic Growth in Nigeria

This study uses the threshold regression method to determine the optimal inflation threshold for economic growth in Nigeria. There is evidence that establish that setting an inflation target as a nominal anchor that constrains price movements to a particular point or within a pre-agreed range is indispensable for economic growth. Application of the Bai-Perron structural breakpoints test to the data detected two breaks dated 1999 and 2011. The Lee-Strazicich Unit Root Test showed that the data were cointegrated. The threshold estimation for optimal inflation values in the 5% to 25% band revealed that the residual sums of squares, RSS, is minimized and the R2 is maximized at an optimal inflation threshold of 18% with a statistically significant regression model, suggesting that the optimal inflation target for economic growth in Nigeria is 18%. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL) estimate shows that a 1% increase in inflation leads to an increase of 0.017% GDP growth in Nigeria in the long-run. The estimation of the ARDL model indicate that the coefficients of exchange rate, trade openness and population growth present mixed signaling in relation to GDP growth in the long- and short-run. Our results indicate that the implementation of the inflation targeting framework in a credible, transparent and accountable way could help to anchor inflation expectations, rein in inflation and improve economic growth in Nigeria.

The Impact of the Fed's Rate Hike on the Japanese Gaming Company - Square Enix

The Fed's rate hike affects global stock markets in the short run. The volatility of Square Enix's earnings during the window period is analyzed by examining the net effect of Fed rate hikes on the stock price of Square Enix, a Japanese listed company, through VAR and GARCH model. The results show that the net capital outflow dominates the current period when the dollar appreciates relative to the yen in period t=0; Square Enix is the beneficiary of the current round of successive interest rate hikes under the change in cumulative effect. In addition, the impulse response shows that the change of return is basically in line with the "J-curve" effect. The capital outflow effect dominates in the first few periods of the exchange rate increase, and the export effect dominates over time. The coefficients of the logarithmic exchange rate and its lagged term show that the increase in the exchange rate has a significant effect on Square Enix volatility, and the effect is lagged. From the full model, the magnitude of the negative effect is smaller than the positive effect, and therefore, the exchange rate increase has a significant positive effect on the volatility of Square Enix returns. The study argues that Japan should maintain macro policy sustainability, avoid large fiscal deficits, and set aside sufficient policy space to address internal and external risk challenges.

Value Added Tax (VAT), Inflation, and Manufacturing Sector Output in ECOWAS Sub-Region

This study was focused on the value added tax, inflation, and manufacturing sector output in ECOWAS countries. The objective of this paper is to investigate the relationship between value added tax (VAT) and inflation on manufacturing sector productivity in ECOWAS countries The National Bureau of Statist ics and the CBN statistics bulletin and World Bank Data bank were utilized to provide aggregate time series data for the years 2000 to 2022 the research study views ten (10) ECOWAS countries such as; Nigeria, Ghana, Burkina Faso, Benin, Cape Verde, Liberia, Mauritania, Senegal, Sierra-Leone, and Mali. Panel ARDL model, and panel GMM estimator method was used to analyze the data. The results of our Panel GMM reveals that that exchange rate's coefficient had a negative relationship with manufacturing Productivity. The depreciation of the Naira to the US Dollar exchange rate discourages firm productivity. Value added tax and inflation coefficient had a negative relationship with manufacturing Productivity. Based on our findings we therefore recommend that as far as the banks are concerned, the authorities should ensure that it regularizes the implementation of Value Added Tax in order that it may not be accused of discriminating practices against banks. The Government should apply strictness in the enforcement activities of Value Added Tax just as it has done to the financial institutions in recent years. By this market force should be allowed to determine the Value Added Tax chargeable, but with or close monitoring.

Effects of industrialization on Tanzania’s economic growth: a case of manufacturing sector

This article examines the impact of industrialization on economic growth in Tanzania focusing on the drivers of structural changes in the manufacturing sector. We apply the vector error correction model based on a parsimonious model covering the period from 1970 to 2017. Our results demonstrate the existence of a positive relationship between the manufacturing sector through its value added and economic growth in Tanzania. We have also observed a similar pattern of relationship in other sectors of the economy such as construction, agriculture, and services. Furthermore, the interaction model shows that foreign direct investment inflows and net domestic credit are the drivers of manufacturing growth. However, the real exchange rate coefficient is negative and significant, suggesting that it has had a negative impact on manufacturing output. The results are consistent with postulations of economic models found in economic growth theories. The article also presents some policy implications regarding the need for consistent policy implementation in the manufacturing sector and further improvement of the investment climate.

Inflationary Effects, Exchange Rate and Economic Growth Rate in Kenya

Human civilization has always been centred on economic growth. Economic growth difficulties are the main focus of government policy and study in the modern, globalized world. Kenya's overarching goal is to become a middle-income nation that is both globally competitive and wealthy and provides its residents with a high quality of life. The Kenya Vision 2030 is the country's development strategy. Different perspectives on the relationship between inflation, exchange rate and economic growth have shown diverging results. This study's particular goals were to determine the effect of inflation and exchange rate on Kenya's economic growth using Keynesian theory. This study used explanatory research design and adopted positivism philosophy. Annual data from 1980 to 2019 giving 40 observations was used. Vector Error Correction (VECM) Model was customized in analyzing the long run and short-run contribution of macroeconomic variables and gross domestic product in Kenya. From the VECM model, R-square value was 58.62, Chi-square of 26.913 (p > Chi2 = 0.0494) showing VECM was fit for parameter estimation. The coefficient of exchange rate was -0.828 with a p-value of 0.001 while the coefficient of inflation was 0.055,p value=0.020.The findings of this study will provide good fiscal and monetary policy recommendations to the government as well as guidance on how to solve the issue of weak economic growth. Because economic growth is predicted to slow down when inflation exceeds a particular threshold, the nation must control inflation. The government should support macroeconomic policies that strengthen the stability of Kenya's exchange rate versus the major world trading currencies while aiming for an ideal level of inflation because foreign currency rates have a detrimental impact on economic growth in Kenya.

Foreign direct investment and stock market development in Nepal

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the stock market development in Nepal.Design/methodology/approachThe study used Johansen cointegration approach to determine long-run relationship and VEC Granger causality test to check the causal relations between the variables. The sample covered annual time-series data for the period 1996–2020.FindingsThe results suggest that FDI plays significant positive role in the stock market development in the long-run but inversely affect in the short-run. Unidirectional causality running from FDI to stock market development is observed in the long-run and bidirectional in the short-run. There is an insignificant positive relationship between exchange rate and FDI in the short-run. Banking sector development complements stock market development in the short-run but act as a substitute in the long-run. The statistically negative coefficient of exchange rate imply that the appreciation of the home currency encourage the development of the stock market in the long-run.Originality/valueThe positive and statistical coefficients of cointegration results indicate that FDI complements the development of stock market in Nepal in the long-run. Furthermore, the depreciation of the domestic currency may potentially contribute to the foreign direct investments in Nepal.

FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI INDEKS HARGA SAHAM PADA PERUSAHAAN TELEKOMUNIKASI YANG TERDAFTAR DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

This study was conducted to test how the effect of independent variables (Inflation, Exchange Rate and Interest Rate) on dependent variables (Stock Prices) on Telecommunications Sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the period January 2018 to March 2021. This research is a type of quantitative because it refers to the calculation and research of secondary data in the form of numbers. By applying Documentation Studies and Literature Research as data collection techniques, purposive sampling techniques to obtain representative samples in accordance with the specified criteria, as well as applying the Classic Assumption Test of Multiple Regression Models and Hypothetical Testing as data analysis techniques in this study. Therefore, the following results are obtained: Inflation has a positive and significant effect on the Stock Price, interest rate has a negative and significant effect on the Stock Price, Rupiah Exchange Rate has no influence on the Stock Price, and based on the analysis of the Coefficient of Determination (R2) inflation, interest rate and rupiah exchange rate is able to explain the variable bound by 56.9% , while 43.1% is influenced by other variables outside the regression model.

The Determinants of Balance of Payments in Nigeria

The Balance of Payments in Nigeria was studied using annual data from 1981 to 2019 in this article. The paper's major goal was to examine the long-term factors that influence Nigeria's Balance of Payments. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) was used in the investigation. Long-term results from the ARDL regression showed that the exchange rate coefficient was negative, whereas short-term results showed a positive value. Also, the coefficients of FDI, GDP growth, interest rates, and crude oil prices were positive and significant. There is a strong case can be made for governmental intervention to improve economic productivity, as evidenced by this study. To help the economy thrive, capital investments and expenditures should be made. The government should make incentives to prospective foreign investors in order to attract FDI inflows into the country. Government should also enhance safety and security and build a sense of belonging in the Niger Delta in order to promote peace and ease of doing business in the petroleum industry there.

Impact of naira redesign and monetary policy on Nigeria economy

Naira redesign is typically carried out to prevent naira counterfeiting and control the amount of money in circulation lowering inflation and is also a good monetary policy. The sole aim of this study is to examine the effects of monetary policy and the redesign of the Naira on the Nigerian economy. The secondary data used was taken from World Bank publications published between 1970 and 2021. While accounting for inflation, the regression model demonstrates a significant relationship between GDP and monetary policy. The model also demonstrates that the exchange rate and interest rate coefficients have a positive and significant impact on Nigeria's GDP, whereas the inflation rate coefficient has a negative and significant impact. The unit root test was also used, and the results demonstrate that all of the variables are ordered-one integrated. According to the Johansen cointegration analysis, the GDP, exchange rate, interest rate, and inflation have a long-term relationship. This demonstrates unequivocally that monetary policy, when properly applied by the federal government via the central bank of Nigeria, has a positive significant impact on the Nigerian economy. To prevent Naira notes counterfeiting, remove about 80% of Naira currency outside of commercial banks, and also to mitigate the inflation rate that has essentially driven Nigeria into recession, the government should strictly implement the Naira redesign decision from time to time through the Nigeria apex bank. This will positively affect the Nigerian economy.

Transient Storage Model Parameter Optimization Using the Simulated Annealing Method

AbstractHyporheic exchange in streams is critical to ecosystem functions such as nutrient cycling along river corridors, especially for slowly moving or small stream systems. The transient storage model (TSM) has been widely used for modeling of hyporheic exchange. TSM calibration, for hyporheic exchange, is typically used to estimate four parameters, including the mass exchange rate coefficient, the dispersion coefficient, stream cross‐sectional area, and hyporheic zone cross‐sectional area. Prior studies have raised concerns regarding the non‐uniqueness of the inverse problem for the TSM, that is, the occurrence of different parameter vectors resulting in TSM solution that reproduces the observed in‐stream tracer break through curve (BTC) with the same error. This leads to practical non‐identifiability in determining the unknown parameter vector values even when global‐optimal values exist, and the parameter optimization becomes practically non‐unique. To address this problem, we applied the simulated annealing method to calibrate the TSM to BTCs, because it is less susceptible to local minima‐induced non‐identifiability. A hypothetical (or synthetic) tracer test data set with known parameters was developed to demonstrate the capability of the simulated annealing method to find the global minimum parameter vector, and it identified the “hypothetically‐true” global minimum parameter vector even with input data that were modified with up to 10% noise without increasing the number of iterations required for convergence. The simulated annealing TSM was then calibrated using two in‐stream tracer tests conducted in East Fork Poplar Creek, Tennessee. Simulated annealing was determined to be appropriate for quantifying the TSM parameter vector because of its search capability for the global minimum parameter vector.

Experimental Analysis of Mass Exchange Across a Heterogeneity Interface: Role of Counter‐Current Transport and Non‐Linear Diffusion

AbstractSolute transport in heterogeneous and fractured systems is a complex process given the permeability contrasts and the time scales discrepancies of transport in high‐permeability versus low‐permeability regions. We studied this phenomenon by injecting a solute (dyed water) in a micromodel comprising a single channel in contact with a porous medium and evaluated the mass exchange across the interface between the channel and porous medium (resembling the interface between free flow and porous media regions). Two sets of transport experiments were performed at three injection rates of 0.01, 0.1, and 1 ml/hr. Injection of dyed water into a clean‐water‐filled micromodel (referred to as the loading process hereafter) and injection of clean water into a dyed‐water‐filled micromodel (referred to as the unloading process hereafter). The dynamics of solute transport was recorded using time‐lapse optical imaging. Our experimental results demonstrated the change of the mass exchange rate coefficient with time and a much smaller transfer rate coefficient during the unloading compared to the loading process. It is proposed that concentration‐dependent counter‐current advection‐diffusion cause slow‐down and further delay in the transport. These results may provide further explanation for the observed slow release of contamination in aquifers.

Macroeconomic Drivers of Economic Growth

Kenya's GDP growth is hampered by high fiscal deficits, high interest rates, and volatile exchange rates. As a result, the economy has experienced sluggish cycles of low economic growth, prompting policymakers to revise their policies. Kenya's ability to address macroeconomic instability hinges on its ability to increase economic growth. Divergent perspectives on the relationship between selected macroeconomic variables and economic growth is revealed by additional evidence. The goal of this research was to see how certain macroeconomic drivers affected economic growth. The study was based on the theory of endogenous growth. The study, which was based on the philosophical paradigm of positivism, used an explanatory research design and secondary data from the Kenya Bureau of Statistics, which covered the years 1990 to 2020. In the empirical analysis, the study used the bound test to test for a long-run relationship and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL) to evaluate the relationship between the variables. The data was tested for stationarity using the Augmented Dickey Fuller method. The long run ARDL results showed that the coefficients of exchange rate 0.080 (p-value 0.033 < 0.05), lending interest rate -0.172 (p-value 0.011 < 0.05), and broad money supply 0.242 (p-value 0.001 < 0.05) all had a significant impact on economic growth. The results of this study will be useful in forming fiscal and monetary policy, as well as in informing the government about potential solutions to economic growth challenges. According to the study, CBK policymakers should pursue policies that ensure exchange rate stability, determine effective lending interest rates, and keep the fiscal deficit in line with Kenya's economic growth.

Izvozne performanse i konkurentnost perifernih članica Evrozone

This paper examines the impact of the selected factors on the real exports of goods and services in the several Euro area (the eurozone) peripheral economies. There are five countries in the sample (Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and Greece). The time period from 2000 to 2019 is considered. The research is aimed at providing robust estimates of the long-term relationship between the real exports of these countries and the selected explanatory variables using panel data analysis. The coefficients of the cointegration export equation were estimated using the FMOLS and DOLS estimators. Using the FMOLS estimator, the estimated coefficient of the real effective exchange rate is negative (-0.80) and of the variable foreign demand is positive (2.25). The coefficient of the real effective exchange rate confirms the fact that, from the point of view of the eurozone peripheral members, the overestimated real value of the Euro has a disincentive effect on their real exports. The estimated coefficient of foreign demand suggests that the real export of goods and services (volumes) of the eurozone peripheral members increases by 2.25% when the real GDP of the EU increases by 1%. The real export elasticity of the eurozone periphery countries is higher for foreign demand (income elasticity) than for relative price changes (price elasticity). Reductions in wages and prices in peripheral countries have led to redistributive effects in favor of the core.