Rare Rainfall Events Research Articles

Impact of different land use data on WRF model short range forecasts during pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons in India

This study focuses to analyse the impact of land use changes on short range weather forecasts over Indian region. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation experiments are conducted by using land use data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) satellites for pre-monsoon and monsoon season. MODIS 2001 land use is used in control (CNT) experiment and updated land use with recent urban class from MODIS (EXP1) and ISRO (EXP2) for the year 2019 is used to generate model lower boundary conditions in other two experiments. Quantitative error measures and skill score computed for rainfall forecast showed that model skill is better with the use of realistic recent land use data from MODIS and ISRO during pre-monsoon and monsoon period. Extreme Dependency Index score computed also revealed that model skill in predicting extreme rare rainfall events is improved with recent landuse data. Model simulated surface meteorological variables and profiles at lower levels also found to be improved with the inclusion of realistic land use class from MODIS and ISRO. Between the two experiments, the one which used ISRO based land use showed larger improvement particularly during the monsoon season.

Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Rainfall in Eastern Africa in a Convection-Permitting Climate Model

Abstract Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of rainfall extremes. Understanding future changes in rainfall is necessary for adaptation planning. Eastern Africa is vulnerable to rainfall extremes because of low adaptive capacity and high future population growth. Convection-permitting climate models have been found to better represent moderate (yearly) rainfall extremes than parameterized convection models, but there is limited analysis of rare extremes that occur less frequently than once per year. These events often have the largest socioeconomic impacts. We use extreme value theory and regional frequency analysis to quantify rare rainfall extremes over East Africa in a convection-permitting climate model (CP4A). We compare the results with its parameterized counterpart (P25), the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for the African region (CORDEX-Africa) ensemble, and observations to understand how the convection parameterization impacts the results. We find that CP4A better matches observations than the parameterized models. With climate change, we find the parameterized convection models have unrealistically high changes in the shape parameter of the extreme value distribution, which controls the tail behavior (i.e., the most extreme events), leading to large increases in return levels of events with a return period of >20 years. This suggests that parameterized convection models may not be suitable for looking at relative changes in rare rainfall events with climate change and that convection-permitting models should be preferred for this type of work. With the more realistic CP4A, RCP8.5 end-of-century climate change leads to 1-in-100-yr events becoming 1-in-23-yr events, which will necessitate serious adaptation efforts to avoid devastating socioeconomic impacts. Significance Statement We use a new, high-resolution climate model to examine how rare extreme rainfall events in East Africa might change in the future with climate change and compare the results with those from standard-resolution climate models. We find that the standard-resolution models have unrealistically large increases in rainfall for events that occur less frequently than every 20 years. The high-resolution model is more realistic and is required to illustrate possible future changes in rare rainfall extremes. Extreme events will become more common with climate change, and in the more realistic model we show that a 1-in-100-yr event may become a 1-in-23-yr event by the end of the century if greenhouse gas emissions are not significantly reduced.

An improved GEV boosting method for imbalanced data classification with application to short-term rainfall prediction

This paper considers the imbalanced binary classification problem by focusing on the application of the short-term rainfall forecasting in arid and semi-arid regions. Specifically, we present a novel boosting-type method by utilizing the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution as the link function and applying a gradient tree boosting algorithm to capture complex interactions among covariates. The proposed method has several appealing advantages such as, it can identify rare rainfall events as well as quantifying the uncertainties; it is data-driven that without any assumption on the relationship between the covariates and the rainfall event; the fitted model is highly interpretable, making it a useful tool for studying the rainfall mechanisms in arid and semi-arid regions. Experiments on two real-world datasets show that our approach outperforms its competing methods.

Runoff volume and sediment yield from an endorheic watershed generated by rare rainfall events in the Atacama Desert

Surface runoff, channel activation and sediment transport processes in desert environments have been convincingly shown to strongly depend on the duration and intensity of local and convective rainfall events. Among these environments, the Atacama, considered the driest desert on Earth, is situated in a remote and rugged area, where documentation of historical and recent hydro-sedimentary processes is rare. We characterize the hydrological processes in an endorheic watershed of the Atacama's Altiplano Desert, where the occurrence of flash floods was evaluated on event-based signatures of water and sediment in a small ephemeral playa. Twelve pits were dug in the playa, with five identified event sediment couplets, each corresponding to computed flood volumes that gave rise to transport and depositional events occurring between 1978 and 2019. Detailed topography allowed reconstruction of a 3D terrain model, from which we estimated a 11.3 t/yr/km2 local historic sediment yield. The timing of the older identified events did not match local rainfall records, and proved to be uncorrelated with occurrences of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This suggests a high spatial patchiness of rainfall events in terms of depth and intensity, and implies that small playa records are not necessarily always helpful in reconstructing the regional climatic history of the recent past. The sediment concentration and volume of the reconstructed hypercontracted events are not well corrected with the magnitude of the rainfall event, suggesting the important role played by variable sediment availability and connectivity at basin scale. This spatiotemporal variability plays a major role in understanding the present and historic hydro-sedimentary processes in the Atacama's altiplano.

Skill of Predicting Heavy Rainfall Over India: Improvement in Recent Years Using UKMO Global Model

The quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) performance for heavy rains is still a challenge, even for the most advanced state-of-art high-resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) modeling systems. This study aims to evaluate the performance of UK Met Office Unified Model (UKMO) over India for prediction of high rainfall amounts (>2 and >5 cm/day) during the monsoon period (JJAS) from 2007 to 2015 in short range forecast up to Day 3. Among the various modeling upgrades and improvements in the parameterizations during this period, the model horizontal resolution has seen an improvement from 40 km in 2007 to 17 km in 2015. Skill of short range rainfall forecast has improved in UKMO model in recent years mainly due to increased horizontal and vertical resolution along with improved physics schemes. Categorical verification carried out using the four verification metrics, namely, probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), frequency bias (Bias) and Critical Success Index, indicates that QPF has improved by >29 and >24% in case of POD and FAR. Additionally, verification scores like EDS (Extreme Dependency Score), EDI (Extremal Dependence Index) and SEDI (Symmetric EDI) are used with special emphasis on verification of extreme and rare rainfall events. These scores also show an improvement by 60% (EDS) and >34% (EDI and SEDI) during the period of study, suggesting an improved skill of predicting heavy rains.

Surface evolution of salt‐encrusted playas under extreme and continued dryness

AbstractMiocene continental saltpans are scattered in the Central Valley of the Atacama Desert, one of the driest regions on Earth. These evaporitic deposits are hydrologically inactive, and are detached from groundwater brines or aquifers. The surface of the saltpans, also known as salars, comprises desiccation polygons, commonly with nodular salt structures along their sides. The morphology and bulk mineralogy of salt polygons differs between and within salars, and the shape and internal structure of salt nodules varies between different polygon types. Based on field observation, and mineralogy and crystallography data, we generated a conceptual model for the genesis and evolution of these surface features, whereby rare rainfall events are responsible for the transformation of desiccation salt polygons and the initial formation of salt nodules along polygon borders. In addition, frequent, but less intense, deliquescence events further drive the evolution of salt nodules, resulting in a characteristic internal structure that includes laminations, and changes in porosity and crystal morphologies. As a result, and despite the extreme dryness, the surfaces of fossil salars are dynamic on timescales of several years to decades, in response to daily cycles in atmospheric moisture, and also to rare and meager rainfall events. We propose that fossil salars in the Atacama Desert represent an end stage in the evolution of evaporitic deposits under extreme and prolonged dryness. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Long-term precipitation forecast for drought relief using atmospheric circulation factors: a study on the Maharloo Basin in Iran

Abstract. Long-term precipitation forecasts can help to reduce drought risk through proper management of water resources. This study took the saline Maharloo Lake, which is located in the north of Persian Gulf, southern Iran, and is continuously suffering from drought disaster, as a case to investigate the relationships between climatic indices and precipitation. Cross-correlation in combination with stepwise regression technique was used to determine the best variables among 40 indices and identify the proper time lag between dependent and independent variables for each month. The monthly precipitation was predicted using an artificial neural network (ANN) and multi-regression stepwise methods, and results were compared with observed rainfall data. Initial findings indicated that climate indices such as NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), PNA (Pacific North America) and El Niño are the main indices to forecast drought in the study area. According to R2, root mean square error (RMSE) and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, the ANN model performed better than the multi-regression model, which was also confirmed by classification results. Moreover, the model accuracy to forecast the rare rainfall events in dry months (June to October) was higher than the other months. From the findings it can be concluded that there is a relationship between monthly precipitation anomalies and climatic indices in the previous 10 months in Maharloo Basin. The highest and lowest accuracy of the ANN model were in September and March, respectively. However, these results are subject to some uncertainty due to a coarse data set and high system complexity. Therefore, more research is necessary to further elucidate the relationship between climatic indices and precipitation for drought relief. In this regard, consideration of other climatic and physiographic factors (e.g., wind and physiography) can be helpful.

Catastrophic movement of rocks and proposed solutions to avoid its risks in the Abu El-Reesh area, northeast Aswan City, Egypt

Catastrophic mass movement of rocks and torrents affected the Abu El-Reesh area, northeast of Aswan City. The present article aims to evaluate the potential catastrophic movement of rocks, delineate the risk zones, and suggest suitable solutions to avoid the potential risks in this area. The sedimentary succession of Abu El-Reesh area is mainly represented by the Nubian sandstone sequence of Upper Cretaceous (up to 60 m thick) forming a huge scarp at the eastern border of the study area. This sequence comprises two vertically successive rock formations: Timsah Shale Formation and Umm Barmil Sandstone Formation. The Timsah Shale Formation forms the lower part of the sedimentary succession with a thickness of 6–40 m. It is composed of shale beds with intercalations of sandstones, siltstones, and mudstones. This formation is overlain by the Umm Barmil Sandstone Formation, representing the cap rock of the succession, with a thickness of 4–20 m. The western scarp face has an irregular concave slope, with slope angles ranging from 22° to 46° in the lower part of scarp and become steep (60°–86°) at its upper part. The drainage patterns are mainly coarse dendritic and discharge into the Nile River, passing through densely populated zones. These zones are exposed to the torrents during rare rainfall events. Three sets of vertical joints (trending NNW, NNE, and WNW) dissect the cap rocks and intersect with the horizontal bedding planes to form separated cubes and polygonal blocks. Potential catastrophic movement of rocks in Abu El-Reesh area is related to several reasons, including: existence of competent sandstones underlain by incompetent shales, dissection of the coherent cap rock due to intersection of vertical joint sets and bedding planes, presence of exposures with steep slopes, rainfall, and human activities (mining works, sewage water, and irrigation). Based on the dominance of either one or more of these reasons, three subareas (El-Khalasab, El-Shadeeda and El-Aqaba) represent the main risk zones, subjected to rock movements and torrents in the study area. Several solutions have been suggested for avoiding the risks related to the potential catastrophic movement of the rocks and torrents in the study area. The fractured rock masses at the top of scarp should be released either mechanically or manually. All buildings that were built on the slope surface of the scarp should be removed. Also, buildings which were constructed in the inlets of wadis and through the rain spillways should be removed. An unsafe boundary separating safe building borders from unsafe zone (with average width 50 m from the base of scarp) is delineated. As a result, resettlement for people living in this unsafe zone should be transferred to another safe area.

CLIMATE IN THE DRY CENTRAL ANDES OVER GEOLOGIC, MILLENNIAL, AND INTERANNUAL TIMESCALES1

Over the last eight years, we have developed several paleoenvironmental records from a broad geographic region spanning the Altiplano in Bolivia (18°S–22°S) and continuing south along the western Andean flank to ca. 26°S. These records include: cosmogenic nuclide concentrations in surface deposits, dated nitrate paleosoils, lake levels, groundwater levels from wetland deposits, and plant macrofossils from urine-encrusted rodent middens. Arid environments are often uniquely sensitive to climate perturbations, and there is evidence of significant changes in precipitation on the western flank of the central Andes and the adjacent Altiplano. In contrast, the Atacama Desert of northern Chile is hyperarid over many millions of years. This uniquely prolonged arid climate requires the isolation of the Atacama from the Amazon Basin, a situation that has existed for more than 10 million years and that resulted from the uplift of the Andes and/or formation of the Altiplano plateau. New evidence from multiple terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides, however, suggests that overall aridity is occasionally punctuated by rare rainfall events that likely originate from the Pacific. East of the hyperarid zone, climate history from multiple proxies reveals alternating wet and dry intervals where changes in precipitation originating from the Atlantic may exceed 50%. An analysis of Pleistocene climate records across the region allows reconstruction of the spatial and temporal components of climate change. These Pleistocene wet events span the modern transition between two modes of interannual precipitation variability, and regional climate history for the Central Andean Pluvial Event (CAPE; ca. 18–8 ka) points toward similar drivers of modern interannual and past millennial-scale climate variability. The north-northeast mode of climate variability is linked to El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, and the southeast mode is linked to aridity in the Chaco region of Argentina.

Intensity and spatio-temporal variability of fluvial sediment transfers in an Arctic-oceanic periglacial environment in northernmost Swedish Lapland (Latnjavagge catchment)

Intensity and spatio-temporal variability of fluvial sediment transfers and mechanical fluvial denudation were analyzed in the periglacial Latnjavagge catchment (9 km 2; 950–1440 m a.s.l.; 68.20N, 18.30E) in Arctic-oceanic northernmost Swedish Lapland. The present-day rates of fluvial sediment transfer are low. The mean annual mechanical fluvial denudation rate at the inlet of lake Latnjajaure, as calculated after five years of process monitoring (2000–2004), and excluding a “rare rainfall event” which caused 3.2 times higher suspended sediment transport during one day as compared to the total mean annual suspended sediment transport, is 2.3 t km − 2 yr − 1 . In years without “rare rainfall events”, most of the total annual sediment load is transported in a few days during annual snowmelt runoff. In the calculation of longer-term sediment budgets, rare rainfall events like the July 20th–21st, 2004 event have to be considered as essential components. Reliable estimation of the recurrence intervals of such events is problematic. The pattern of ice patches and snow fields within the valley, the steepness of streams and channels and the location of areas showing slushflow activity are the major factors controlling spatial variability of mechanical fluvial denudation in the drainage basin. The five lakes in Latnjavagge, especially lake Latnjajaure, are significant sediment traps and ground below 1300 m a.s.l. is protected by a very stable and closed vegetation cover and rhizosphere across the entire lower catchment.

Geomorphic effects of the extreme rainfall event of 20–21 july, 2004 in the latnjavagge catchment, northern swedish lapland

Mass transfers triggered by a rare rainfall event on 20–21 July, 2004, with 58.4 mm of rain within 24 h and 71.7 mm of rain within 48 h in the Latnjavagge catchment (9 km2 , 950–1440 m a.s.l.; 68°20'N, 18°30'E) in the higher Abisko mountain region (Swedish Lapland), are quantified and analysed in direct comparison with mean annual mass transfers in this drainage basin. In years without rare rainfall events the Latnjavagge catchment is characterized by restricted sediment availability resulting in low mechanical denudation and mass transfers. During the rare rainfall event of 20–21 July, 2004, major stability thresholds on the slope systems (triggering debris flows and slides) and in the channel systems (break‐up of channel debris pavements and step–pool systems) in the Latnjavagge catchment were passed and mass transfers by debris flows, slides and fluvial debris transport in creeks and channels were several times higher than the mean annual mass transfers in Latnjavagge. In the calculation of longer‐term mass transfers and sediment budgets, rare events like the 20–21 July, 2004 rainfall event have to be considered as essential components. A reliable estimation of the recurrence intervals of such rare events is especially problematic. The general problem of defining an adequate length of process monitoring programmes is pointed out.

Field observations of extended locomotor activity at sub‐optimal body temperatures in a diurnal heliothermic lizard (Tiliqua rugosa)

AbstractThe behavioural response of the sleepy lizard Tiliqua rugosa to an extended drought was examined in spring and summer 2002. Observations of the behaviour and use of microhabitat by radio‐tagged lizards for spring in 2000–2002 showed that the lizards in 2002 suffered decreased body mass and increased mortality, were less active, showed reduced mating behaviour and increased use of burrows when compared with the more normal wetter years of 2000 and 2001. The lizards lost significant mass owing to dehydration and starvation. An ‘onboard’ data logger recorded lizard stride frequency and body temperature continuously for 4 months on 11 lizards during the drought of 2002. The normally diurnal heliothermic sleepy lizards responded to rare rainfall events during the drought whenever they occurred, day or night, by emerging from burrows or other shelters for extended periods of activity with sub‐optimal body temperatures as low as 8.5°C. They moved more often, and with higher stride frequencies during periods of rain than during dry periods, both overnight and during the day. As a consequence of this extended activity under physiological stress, the lizards were able to respond to naturally occurring transient opportunities for food and water that would not have been available if they were only active at optimal body temperatures. In an area where freestanding water is rarely available, the lizards were able to access limited water by licking substrate. They also gained water and perhaps nutrition by consuming the temporarily rehydrated thalli of the free‐living terrestrial cyanobacterium Nostoc commune. Such behaviour enabled lizards to regain much of the mass lost before the rainfall and probably enabled many lizards to survive until more normal food sources became available. These rare events may have a significant effect on the shaping of the sleepy lizards phenotypic capacities outside routine day‐to‐day activities.