Regional mudstone cap rock has an important influence on the oil and gas distribution of the oil source faults below it. Therefore, studying the influence of these mudstone cap rocks on the hydrocarbon distribution pattern is fundamental to understanding the oil and gas distribution of the lower generation and upper reservoir reservoirs in the Bohai Bay Basin. This study classified two types of hydrocarbon diversion from oil source faults: blockage diversion and seepage diversion. To locate them, we established a method to predict the areas with blockage diversion and seepage diversion separately by superimposing the sealing and leakage parts of the regional mudstone cap rock with the regions of the connected distribution of sand bodies and the favorable hydrocarbon transport sites of the oil source faults, respectively. We used this approach to predict the locations where hydrocarbons are diverted by the oil source faults under the regional mudstone cap rocks in the first and second sections of the Dongying Formation (E3d1-2) in the Liuchu area of the Raoyang Sag, Bohai Bay Basin. The results show that the regional mudstone cap rock’s blockage diversion occurs mainly in the south-central area of Liuchu, with a localized distribution in the northern part. The seepage diversion site is primarily located in the northeastern area and is also found locally in the west. Both diversions are beneficial for the accumulation of hydrocarbons from the source rocks of the first member of the Shahejie Formation (E3s1) to the upper second member of the Dongying Formation (E3d2U). The latter can also accumulate hydrocarbons in the Guantao Formation (N1g). The results align with the hydrocarbon distribution, demonstrating the feasibility of our method to predict various oil source fault diversion sites under the regional mudstone cap rock. This prediction method offers valuable guidance for exploring the lower generation and upper reservoir hydrocarbon accumulations in hydrocarbon-bearing basins.
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